A Clevelander called into NFL Radio to report that he had heard a rumor that the Browns might trade Bray-on Edwards to the Patriots for their first round pick, and then draft Calvin Johnson, the super-reciever, with the third overall pick.
First, I immediately detect and correct the garble-age: IF Johnson falls to the Browns they would THEN trade Bray-on to the Pats for their first pick. Next, I need to vet it using logic, tendancies, etc.:
At the time the caller said this, Solomon Willcotts wanted to know why they would do this. "You get a reciever who's a little better. What do you really gain?"
Dear Solomon: You gain another first round pick. NEXT!
Would this look good to the Pats? Well, they've made a big move in free agency this season, and are going for all the marbles. Dudes really mean business. They got Daunte Stallworth as a deep threat, but the guy is constantly pulling muscles and straining stuff. That's why they structured his contract so as to protect themselves if he continues to miss time.
They've allowed Branch and Givens to go. A mistake, perhaps--but that doesn't matter now. Bill knows all about Bray-on's big mouth and mental condition, and drops. But if you know him, you know he feels confident that he could take care of all this (with the help of the team, who would punish him.)
Edwards is a veteran big-play guy who can also cross the field. A former third overall pick, under contract for the long term--and that contract is three years old, so the Pats would pay more, but not that much more. Edwards could come in and be an immediate lethal weapon, plus would remain with the team and in his prime for years. He could be THE difference between a playoff washout or the Superbowl.
Would he get anything like that at #25?
We have a winner! This rumor makes sense from the Pats perspective.
What about the Browns? Well, for them it's an upgrade. Johnson has dropped passes--but not like Edwards. He is bigger, taller, faster, and SMARTER. And more MATURE. He's not "slightly" better. He's, like 20% better. Who cares who's the quarterback--he can throw it up in the air as deep as he can. (With Edwards, he might tip it. To a safety.)
For the Browns, it's an upgrade at WR, plus an EXTRA starter before the second round even begins. Bingo! Another winner. IF Johnson gets to third, this could happen!
But will he?
Here's some more analysis for you: Al Davis allegedly wants JaMarcus Russell. But look: the dude is on life support and wants one more ring before he croaks. He won Superbowls and championships with Jim Plunkett, Rich Gannon...NEVER with a Pro Bowl type quarterback. And his head Coach wants Johnson.
Check it out: They still want the YOUNG, talented rifle-armed Josh McKown from Detroit. This could well happen for a fourth round pick on saturday. If he gets McKown, do you think he'll still draft Russell? WHY? He'll be dead before the guy gets up to speed!
He may also want Culpepper. Do you know what Culpepper did in his MVP year? He threw it up in the air to Moss. When Moss left, so did he. But he's got a gun, and that's all Al cares about. Let Miami cut him and Al will scoop him up. Or get McKown. Or both. Then take Johnson, and let the QB throw it up in the air.
Or he could possibly trade down and stockpile. The Raiders defense is excellent and doesn't need help, but they do need help offensively. Would a new QB, Johnson, and the second and third rounder be enough?
That's the problem. If the Raiders don't take Johnson, somebody else will. Detroit could take him, to trade down. So, unfortunately, the premise of the aforementioned rumor is very unlikely to happen. Sorry!
Ok but now we do know this: Calvin Johnson is a GMF for the Browns. Indications right now are that Detroit wants to trade out of it's slot, and has a decent chance of doing so with JaMarcus Russell still there and in demand. It's not as strong a possibility as with Johnson, but it is probable that Russell will also be gone for the Browns, who will not trade up.
This leaves Quinn, Peterson, Joe Thomas, and Gaines Adams as the safest picks for the Browns.
I do not believe the Browns would draft Quinn there. One guy wondered why they would, since they have to win NOW of Romeo is gone: They could because Quinn could immediately compete for a start, and once they were mathematicly eliminated, start the last few games to buy Crennel a reprieve. That's called PR, Sherlock. And look at their schedule and division--then get real, Virginia. Not yet. And quit assuming Lerner is as dumb as you.
Anyway, Quinn is too risky. He did fail in big games, and additional research indicates that his team was not to blame. He's also more a west coast type than a deep thrower.
Here's another correction: "The Browns desperately need a running back."
CORRECTION: Jerome Harrison is Lee Suggs, except healthy. Lewis played all of last season with bone spurs, is 28, and a scheme change eliminated his lead-blocker (who the Browns just signed to duke it out with Vickers, by the way). Most teams today run backfields by committee--not one-backs. ONE stud back is not manditory, especially when you need help elsewhere.
I think there is at least a 33% chance that Savage will try to get Simms from Tampa Bay. Simms had emerged as a GOOD QB when he got injured, and is now healthy. He's being aced out by Garcia because Gruden runs a West Coast system, and Simms is a strong-armed guy better suited to the offense the Browns new coordinator wants to run.
Tampa would like to keep him under a clip-board, but not at a starter's salary. Tampa would never trade up in this situation. Gruden may well want Peterson, but could also use several other players who would fall to him.
Phil might be able offer the third overall pick, plus Chaun Thompson, for Simms. (Hey--Chaun Thimpson has turned into a damn good linebacker, who can cover in the Tampa 2. Tampa could use him!)
Yeah, now I'm speculating. But Simms is a young and experienced QB well-suited for the system intended here, and who can trust Frye anymore? (It's ok to root for him, of course.)
After that, who knows? While another trade-down isn't likely, it could happen. Often a team lower down wants a specific player for a specific need, and anticipates a rival in front of them taking that guy. If Savage went even all the way down to ten, (and collected extra picks out the yin-yang), at least one, and more likely two or three of these players would still be there:
CB Leon Hall, TE Greg Olson (Winslow's carreer is questionable and Heiden is aging, so shut up about it), OT Levi Brown, DE's (for us) Adam Carriker and Amobi Okoye, NT/DE Alan Branch...and more guys. A Gaines Adams, or Peterson, or Quinn, even, could drop that far!
Ok so take Quinn or Peterson and that's it, or fix the whole damn team overnight? Hmmm...what to do, what to do...
Anyway, Savage and co. have done a great job. I have no idea who they would take if they stayed there.
But I still think the biggest sleeper here is DEREK ANDERSON. I think they already know it, but can't say it publicly. The new coordinator immediately called it an open competition when he got here.
Look at Stanford's Trent Edwards stats. EEEWWW! But he's regarded as the third best QB by many (real) experts. He played in a team of which one scout said: "Not one player on that team could make USC's roster." He was pounded into mush by enemy defenses, and threw a lot of picks going for broke. (And get this: You would force it, too, if that was your only hope.)
That's Anderson. The third-best quarterback prospect in the country coming out of highschool. Last season he piled up five of his picks all in one game. Up 'til then, he was doing a nice job in this, his first real shot. It's typical for defenses fo catch up with rookie quarterbacks like that. They learn and come back from it, and it happens again--just less and less often, as they become familiar with all the dirty tricks. He showed more than enough for a second look...and the new coaches have enough game film for a first look.
Frye might yet pull it out, but...well, stay tuned.
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