Damarius Randall on the Block? Business 101 and the Cleveland Browns

Every player whose contract will expire in 2020 could be traded by John Dorsey in 2019.

As I've mentioned, one of these is Joe Schobert.  Another is Damarius Randall--as unthinkable as that sounds.

I know I know, Randall is still in his prime, and was sensational last season.  I know that for most of you people, it would be insane to trade one of the best Safeties in the NFL just as the Browns are set to contend.

But as I've mentioned, that "beep! Beep!" you hear is Randall's Brinks truck backing up.

I hate to keep harping on this, but Paul DePodesta has to plan ahead.

Myles Garrett David Njoku, and Larry Ogunjobi enter their third seasons, and they've got even bigger Brinks trucks.  Baker Mayfield, Antonio Callaway, and Denzel Ward are coming up behind them.

Do you think Dorsey can lock down Damarius Randall now, and still retain even more than half these players a short drive down this road?

Others are starting to come around on a Joe Schobert trade, as it begins to start to dawn on them that Steve Wilks will use only 2 linebackers over 80% of the time, and lean more heavily in back end players to cover big people anyway...and of course the sudden new depth at linebacker.

Better late than never, but now we can get DePodestian about Randall, as well.

Clearly, Randall is currently the best Free Safety on this roster, and losing him would be a setback...but not the disaster most of you people think it would be:

Rodney Redwinefield has very similar traits and skills to Randall, and played at the highest level of competition in college.

Jermaine Whitehead has made a great impression as a SS/LB, but also has the tools to play the deep middle.

So, losing Randall would be a downgrade, but most likely not a critical one.

Meanwhile, Randall may be even more valuable than Schobert.

Having only one year left on their contracts will drag down their prices, but getting that much plug-and-play Pro Bowl talent that cheap for 2019 would offset that for some teams.

My inner-homer wants nothing less than a first round pick for either player, but that won't happen.  But a third, or even second round pick for either/both is not unrealistic.

I hear ya.  They're worth more than that.  What if these guys had been in the 2018 draft, with what they've already proven? First rounders!  And yeah even Schobert!

But markets are markets, and business is business.

DePodesta has monumental salary cap problems already looming on the horizon, so he has to consider all offers for all players now in their "contract" years.

Imagine if the Browns got 2 thirds and a 4th round pick for Duke/Schobert/Randall.

Well, now you got Redwine or Whitehead at FS, and don't even feel the losses of Duke or Schobert.

Entering 2020, they get 3 mil or so back from Duke's contract,  over twice that by letting Landry go, avoid 2 Brinks trucks, and now have a bunch more draft picks (probably not all in 2020.  Instead of a third rounder in 2020, it might be a second rounder in 2021, see?)

Would this cost the Browns any games in 2019?  I'm not sure.  Randall is great!

But expecting a Lombardi Trophy in 2019 is a bit of a stretch, and Damarius Randall is unlikey to make that difference.

2019 is about winning the AFC North and being in the playoffs for the first time in eons.  

Sorry to keep harping on this, but Paul DePodesta is not here to go "all-in" with a very young team with new Coaches and systems.  He is here to engineer sustainable success.

2020 would be the "all-in" year, anyway, if DePodesta thought that way.

Then there's the Kareem Hunt situation (this is redundant too sorry):

Paul DePodesta/John Dorsey probably don't intend to rent him cheap for one season, then wave good bye.

Nick Chubb enters only his second season, and his contract will expire in 2022.  The Browns have plenty of time to exploit Hunt's off-the-field BS and bad reputation to extend him to a reasonable long-term contract.

Imagine Chubb and Hunt throughout 2020, then trading Hunt for a first round pick, or just trading the newly-signed superstar (and his salary) before the 2020 season.

This is my advice to Paul DePodesta, anyway, if the communications glitch which makes my emails and texts to him "undeliverable" ever gets fixed...

You get it, right?  Hunt's salary is a temporary hit ahead of the aforementioned balloon payments, and they turn him into a CHEAP high draft pick, right?

If DePodesta could only see my advice, he'd be KEEPING Garrett, Ogunjobi, etc and have the draft "assembly line" humming too.

Like the Patriots.

Cory Kinnon lists his 5 Browns players who deserve to be re-signed.  I agree with his sentiments on all these players, but think it's unrealistic.

Randall and Schobert were 2 of these guys, and I just addressed those.  His other guys were Robinson, Tretter, and Higgins.

Higgins check: He remains underrated and undervalued; a big reliable target cheap at twice the price.

Tretter is realistic, as he probably won't break the bank.  His injury history and the position he plays undermines his leverage, and he may be inclined to accept less to stay on this "train".

JC played most of the season with a high ankle sprain, so my opinion here isn't all "analytical".  I want that baddass on my team.

...analytically, there are guys behind Tretter who can play center on this roster, including Corbett.

Greg Robinson might well be a swing and a miss.  If John Dorsey saw Greg as the Browns Left Tackle of the future, he wouldn't have signed him for only one year.

As my readers know, both Hubbard and Robinson were helped out a lot by chipping Tight Ends and Mayfield's quick releases and scrambles, in addition to more zone-blocking when Kitchens took over the offense.

Maybe this former first round pick has finally lived up to that, for all I know, but Dorsey doesn't seem to think so, and in Dorsey I trust.

Then there's Randall and Schobert.  Cory is right that they deserve new contracts, but business is business.

I'm over my skis on Randall here, but color Joe Schobert a GMF.

I'm not bashing Cory Kinnon here, by any means. All the players he listed have earned extentions.  But Cory isn't thinking like a GM yet.  

Counting pennies.  Developing young talent.  Being ruthless.  I expect Cory Kinnon to eventually become almost as smart as my humble self.  'Nuff said.

PS: I'm certain that Cory is NOT raiding this Blog for original thinking and stealing my intellectual property.  Cory Kinnon is like ME.

I wish I could say the same about EVERYBODY ELSE, who consistently regurgitate what I write here 12-36 hours later gdammit...🖕

But I digress okbye.

In Search of: Browns Bad News. Can't Find it. Sorry!

There is way too much good news coming out about the Browns!  It gets worse every day!

PFF is the biggest culprit, as they list both the Browns' WR and RB duos as among the best in the NFL sshhhh you guys!

Specifically, they're talking about Landry/OBJ and Hunt/Chubb respectively, but that's no biggee, as Chubb and OBJ are top 5ers individually anyway.

Then here comes Madden, making the undraftable Baker Mayfield a top Quarterback.

I've never played Madden, but learned here that they assign certain (real life) traits to their players.  We all know about Baker's ability to deliver outside the pocket, but Madden also gives him equal billing to Big Ben for his ability to complete passes "while being sacked".

I assume Baker also gets credit for quick releases, accuracy with feet in motion, and sack avoidance.

Then PFF analyzes the projected Browns 2019 secondary, and say all kinds of good stuff about them.

But here, I can tell that these are writers they hired, expressing personal opinions, because they made several mistakes (which I would not have):

They were fine on Ward and Greedy Williams as the starters on the outside (ps they point out that Antonio Brown punked Ward, but he GONE now haha).

They were fair and accurate with the other players they mentioned.  Damarius Randall was an absolutely elite Free Safety...Morgan Burnett really just a so-so Strong Safety...

But they actually don't even mention Terrence Mitchell, except dismissively, as they guessed that TJ Carrie would open the season as the starter opposite Denzel Ward.

First, Greedy will start Game 1...DUH.  Second, Terrence Mitchell started over Carrie until he was injured, and then after he recovered, for reasons.  PFF reasons JFC wtf PFF you hire--nevermind...

Ok TJ is good, but Mitchell is better, and if you don't believe me, PFF article-writers, re-check those rankings and numbers...on the service you write for...doyeee...

The most eggregious omission was Jermaine Whitehead, who siezed one of the safety roles early in OTAs and made a strong impression through minicamp.  This guy didn't even EXIST for this writer.

Then there's newly-drafted Safety Sheldrick Redwine (Rodney Redwinefield):

Redwine played for Miami, and roughly compares to Damarius Randall physically.  He could be Randall's backup by Game 1.

How can you ignore guys like Mitchell, Redwine, and Whitehead in any analysis of the 2019 Browns' Secondary?!?

Cory Kinnon says the Bucs might consider trading for Duke Johnson.  Cory quotes a Tampa writer (Cagnon) who suggested this, but it makes a lot of sense:

Tampa sucked running the ball in 2018, despite the fact that Monken's Air Raid Offense terrorized the NFL.

Per Cagnon and Cory, the Bucs have a couple good Running Backs, but no Swiss Army Knives (with a 4.4 or so average from scrimmage) like the Dukester.

If I had more time, I'd check out the current Bucs WR depth chart, Offensive Coordinator, and current Offensive Line to dig deeper here, but as I've said:

1: Duke Johnson can do most of what Jarvis Landry does in the slot, and is scarier after the catch.  GMs with imaginations in need of slot-receivers will find Duke's salary quite affordable, because he could do that full-time.

2: While you can't make a guy Duke's size a "workhorse" RB, he's a LOT more than a 3rd-down back, as he can run up the gut (awesome stiff-arm and hard to take down btw)

Us Browns fans are suddenly spoiled rotten with Hunt, Chubb, and Rodney Hilliardfield, but we have to remember those less fortunate.

Only one year ago, remember the desperation?  

...well honestly I remember defending Isaiah Crowell, and bashing Hue Jackson for refusing to Zone-block for him...sorry I meant YOU people:

Remember loving Duke and not liking anybody else at RB?  The notion of making Duke THE slot receiver?  

Who was the slot receiver before Dorsey brought Landry here?  I'll give you time...........
.....oh maybe Corey Coleman?  Or somebody---definitely somebody...I mean in addition to Duke...

Anyhow lots of teams are acting disinterested in Duke Johnson because they expect Dorsey to "blink" and trade him for a 5th-round pick or something, but he won't.

Duke Johnson is worth a second-round draft pick.  DePodesta Dorsey won't get that much for him, of course, but a third round pick (or 2 4ths or something) is realistic.

John will be telling these other GMs (many of which are his friends) that keeping Duke Johnson through 2019 is fine with him; massively preferable to the chump-change they're offering him so far!

I mean it would be terrible if he found himself "stuck with" Duke Johnson instead of that 5th round pick he could have had instead...

Sorry I spun off on Duke again...

The Browns will have 2 joint practices (in my day we called em "scrimmages") vs the Colts the week of their preseason game in Lucas Oil stadium.

My guys on NFL Radio shed a lot of light on these interteam scrimmages.  The veterans hate them, because the lowly-drafted and undrafted rookies (et al) are desperate to prove themselves...with big hits and stuff.

These guys haven't been allowed to go nuts vs their own teammates, but when it's somebody ELSE, the desperate young guys go nuts, and people get hurt.

But Dorsey and Chris Ballard are freinds, and I expect that there will be referees and discipline, and the young/desperate guys should be reigned in.

And this is a great matchup! The Colts are a scary upcoming team just like the Browns are.

You people don't get this, but..well you don't get it okbye

Mayfield Best in Red Zone, Rodney Hassellfield, Fantasy Browns

Per good old Jake Burns, PFF had Baker Mayfield tied with Drew Brees as THE most efficient Red Zone Quarterback in the NFL in 2018.

Jake shows a ton of clips to tell us why...and our "undraftable" rookie covered all the bases.  He scored on every possible route with bullets, timing, perfect touch passes...well just everything.

As Jake points out,  the quick reads and decisions Baker made are rare for a rookie.

Inside the 20, the Defense has less ground to cover, and can use the back end of the end-zone as well as the sidelines to "shrink the field" and the windows.

What was interesting to me here is that fellow rookie Antonio Callaway was competitive with Rashard Higgins as Baker's best Red Zone targets, and was THE main "deep" guy in general.

Randy Gurzi sees Higgins as an ascending young player (who is big and tall and a Mayfield favorite): Jake thinks it would be a good idea to use Higgins opposite OBJ outside in 3-wides and keep Landry in the slot.

What about Callaway, you axe?  Aint it rereshing to have these problems, for a change?

But seriously, Callaway strongly resembles OBJ skillset-wise, and OBJ gets hurt a lot.  Then there's the matchup thing: vs some defenses, Callaway will look better than Higgins.  Then there's 4-wides:

These haven't been practiced in public so far, but they're most certainly in the new Playbook.

If Njoku gets hurt, that's high among the "Plan B's".  Even as-is, I promise you that Njoku will line up "in the slot" sometimes to create a defacto 4-wide, so these adjustments are minor but I digress:

Andrew Gribble wrote a great article about UDFA J T Hassell, who was born with a left hand that looks like a lobster claw.

But I think that while Andrew wrote an outstanding Human Interest story here, he's underestimating J T's chances of making this team.

I've addressed this before:

His athleticism is off the charts.  He got a lot of interceptions in HS and college (lobster claw and all). He has the physical tools to play ANY secondary position in any system at the highest level (including that linebacker/SS hybrid position).

Andrew is label-struck here, and sees JT as a safety.  He looks at Randall, Burnett, Whitehead, Redwine and Wilson and thinks there's no room for this kid on this roster.

Well, it is NOT inconceivable that a kid with a lobster-claw and a bunch of interceptions can play cornerback when he has above average speed, hips, and suddenness for the position.

The top 3 corners here are etched in stone, of course, and then there's TJ Carrie.

Well, Paul DePodesta John Dorsey has to look down the road apiece, and realisticly has to figure he's going to lose Damarius Randall to the cap.  He has to look hard at every potential replacement for him as of 2020, and JT Hassell might be the BEST candidate on this roster!!!

Then there's TJ Carrie:  He's pretty good, but not great.  Then there's Rodney Mitchellfield, who is terrific, but might also be lost in 2020.

Then there's the fact that Special Teams Coordinator Mike Preifer is no doubt begging Dorsey to retain JT as a core Special Teamer.

And then there's Steve Wilks, who usually uses 5 Defensive Backs, and replaces a linebacker with a guy exactly like JT Hassell, and the fact that it's possible he'll carry only 5 true linebackers (including Genard Avery), and more than 10 Defensive backs.

Finally, JT Hassell is a good Practice Squad candidate, as he might make it through waivers (because of that lobster-claw thing, see?)

The fantasy football guys do a nice job of ranking individual Browns players and Defense/Special Teams, and offer good advice.

...but I kinda specialize on the Browns, so I can tell you where they're wrong:

They ranked the Browns' "DST" too low.  The whole secondary is eyeball deep in ballhawks, the passrush has been massively upgraded, they just hired Mike Preifer, Dorsey and Kitchens both talked about a new emphasis on Special Teams, the bottom of the roster has been upgraded impressively.

Delving deeper, the Browns should lead in games more often in 2019, which means that opposing Offenses will be forced to throw more, more predictably.

They should have estimated the Browns'  DST in the top 7-8, at least, in fantasy.

I think they overestimated OBJ a little, and underestimated every other Browns receiver (including Njoku) a little, as well.

Baker Mayfield hits the open receiver, and Beckham will command extra attention from opposing secondaries.  

These guys expect Mayfield to make more of OBJ than Eli Manning did (which he will), but underestimate Baker Mayfield.  Mayfield will NOT play favorites.

They were pretty good about what little was left, even including Mayfield's ranking (the Browns WILL run a lot).

Right now, I'm guessing that Mayfield will be priced about right, or slightly under.  Njoku should be slightly cheap.  OBJ will be overpriced.  DST CHEAP!!!  Higgins underpriced.

Chubb might be slightly cheap too because of Hunt and the general underestimation of his receiving skills, but he won't be a bargain.

Based on these guys ranking Mayfield lower than the top 5 I think he'll be a good deal, the DST a bargain, and Higgins too.

Oh sorry last call okbye

Chubb/Hunt 2-Back: Verily Inedible out of Freddie's Kitchen.

Wow did you know that per PFF, 3 of the top 4 most elusive running backs in the NFL play for the Browns?

Nick Chubb is first in the NFL with a 103.6, nearly 9 points ahead of number two, Derrick Henry.  That's impressive.

But...Derrick Henry is number two, Hunt is 4th, and Beast-Mode is 5th, so I don't think PFF doesn't define "elusive" the same way most of us do.

Doesn't this look more like a "yards after contact" list?  Whatever it works for me!

As you guys know, I see no reason why Duke Joackson can't be traded til midseason, because Rodney Hilliardfield is earning his props (note on that: Randy Gurzi is who pointed him out to me prior to laast season so there's his props).

Duke should have greater value now than he will then, as teams are still churning their rosters, and guys will get hurt in training camp.

Duke is a Swiss Army Knife, and teams short on slot guys or third-down backs, or merely half a "committee" will be interested in him...like at least 15 of them.

Duke's price will go up as the regular season approaches, and other GMs see that DePodests Dorsey won't blink (no doubt he's already been offered 5th round picks and stuff).

By the way Mayfield's comments about Duke ticked me off too.  That was unneccessary and stupid.  

It doesn't mean Mayfield is an aho, but indicates a lack of empathy.  Anybody who reads this understands why Duke feels the way he does.

Baker seems to think that his personal situation is irrelevant, and Duke should be happy being stuffed in a corner collecting splinters just to be a cheerleader or something.

Baker should remember watching Tyrod Taylor last year, and imagine how he would feel if he was looking at a second year on the bench himself.

Duke isn't being divisive, Baker.  He's being a businessman.  He's a football player, not a cheerleader.  

Anyway, I look forward to Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb at the same time, and have some profound relevations for you whippersnappers:

I remember something called a "two-back" Offense.  (No seriously!  At one point MOST NFL Offenses had two running backs on the field at the same time!!!)

You know that Jim Brown was a Fullback?

Then things changed and here comes 3 and 4-wide spread offenses, fullbacks devolving to part-time blockers and last-ditch receivers, etc.

But then Lindy Infante (under Marty Schottenheimer) brought a legit 2-back offense back to the NFL: Earnest Byner and Kevin Mack (aka the "crack-back" but I digress):

Hard to compare these two to Hunt and Chubb, who are both big and can both catch and stuff, but stick with me here:

Earnest Bryner was both smaller and slower than Alex Mack (a very explosive battering ram), but actually was Mack's lead-blocker, and blasted much bigger people than himself aside.  That's why we love Earnie--"the fumble" and all!

Byner was a great receiver out of the backfield, but you whippersnappers don't know what that means anymore.

Lindy had him catching "long handoffs" "in the flats".  He was really the outside running threat, except his outside runs were technically passes: 3-8 yard lobs.

Defenses had to stack against Mack inside, and couldn't---nevermind anyway Byner was an actual running back who took actual handoffs and did this other stuff too.

Kevin Mack was just a 230 lb pile of muscles with 4.4 speed.  These two gained 1,000 yards from scrimmage each in the same season.  

Partly why this worked so well was because one-back/spread offenses were the latest copycat-fad and Defenses weren't staffed or schemed to stop a 2-back...see where I'm going here?

I'm not sure about Todd Monken, but I'm optimistic that Freddie Kitchens will try to use both Hunt and Chubb at the same time.

First, these are certainly two of the best skill-players he has.  You can put OBJ there with them, and maybe Njoku, but nobody else (possibly Callaway as a deep threat sometimes); they fit as 2 of the 5 best skill players.

Second, both of them are big, powerful guys who can block (both as lead-blockers and in pass-protection.)

I'm not sure about Hunt, but don't doubt that Nick Chubb would embrace being a lead-blocker for Hunt...and I reckon Hunt has to reciprocate, doesn't he?

*Any running back can lead-block, if he is willing.*

Third, unlike Mack/Byner, either or both of these guys can line up on the line as actual downfield receivers.  They physically overmatch most linebackers and some safeties.

Any Defense seeing Chubb and Hunt trot to the huddle with Njoku cannot run a nickel.  They have to run a 3-4 or 4-3 or whatever.

Unless it's 3rd and 9 or something, they can't discount an inside run, Chubb is first and Hunt is 4th in "elusiveness" (and list "running little guys over" amongst their hobbies)---well nickels can't work here, right?

Hunt and Chubb could "max-protect" on long bombs to OBJ, Njoku, or whoever, OR can pile up the gut, OR can go "empty backfield" and screw Defenses up every which way!

Harken back to my numerous previous literal masterpieces: the best coaches use their best players as often as they can, and adapt their scheme to their on-board talent.

The 2019 Browns should do well through the first half of 2019.  But (if Freddie reads this Blog), opposing defenses will be in disarray as of game 9.

Lynch-Mobs, Soaps, Unreality Shows, Landry's Future, and the Browns

Corey Kinnon predicts that Jarvis Landry won't be a Cleveland Brown beyond 2019, and I concur.

Paying Jarvis all that money won't count as one of John Dorsey's greatest hits, to say the least.

Jarvis Landry is a terrific receiver who can get open in phone booth and never drops anything, but he's not a big-play guy, and he's not worth the money he's being paid.

Dorsey wanted to make a big splash, and sort of "prime the pump" to get veteran free agents to reconsider their Browns boycott.

Landry WAS a consistent winner in Fantasy PPR leagues, and truly is a Quarterback's best friend, but things have changed now, and Dorsey will have to dump that salary.

Corey (can't find the article sorry) was extremely logical and ruthless (Belichickian) here, as he thinks that ideally Dorsey might release Landry and extend Rashard Higgins for about half of that.

Now, on top of Beckham, Callaway is coming along nicely, and Higgins is looking like Chris Carter.  From among Willies, Ratley, Montgomery, etc, others will emerge off this assembly line, and DePodesta Dorsey will be looking for ways to make those balloon payments on players who really are critical.

A growing number of pinheads pundits have turned the 2019 Browns into the Donald Trump of football.

The Monken thing is a failure already.   Mayfield and OBJ are oil and water.  The veterans all hate Mayfield.  They get to say "dysfuntional" again, which is even more impressive than "utilize".  And naturally, Dorsey and Haslam are covering up all the unreality-show power-struggles and stuff!

Wowzers!  I'm standing by for "spontaneous" "impeach Dorsey" protests!

Todd Monken is the Offensive Coordinator, but Freddie Kitchens is the Head Coach and, as Monken himself keeps telling all of you over and over again, he's the boss!

And Freddie is a terrific Offensive Coordinator himself!  What's with these people who think Freddie is now supposed to "hand the keys" to Monken, and stay out of the Offense?  

Why? Because Monken is superior to Freddie?  Who told you people this crap?

And who told you that two smart guys can't compromise on anything, or that Freddie is Air-Raid-impaired, or that Monken is Air-Raid or die?

This Soap Opera crap is...dysfunctional.

2019 Browns Oline Concerns, Steve Wilks 101, Inro to DUH

Washington Post writer Neil Greensburg wrote a really good article on the Browns and their Offensive Line.

He points out that while PFF ranked the 2018 unit second in Pass Protection, Pro Football Outsiders ranked them 16th in that category.  (Both Services ranked them 18th in run-blocking).

I think Neil made an error in saying that PFF graded Mayfield 76 under pressure.  I don't have Premium Stats, but I remember a PFF writer saying that he was in the top 3 in the NFL under pressure.

Neil points out a couple more horrific stats, like running conversions on third downs, and tackles for losses (the Browns were almost the worst in both categories).

I was about to go upside Neil's head until he said "in fairness, this changed when--".

That's the point.  Things changed pre and post Carlos Hyde, then Tyrod Tylor, then Todd Haley and Des Harrison, and Neil is citing season-long rankings.

I can be fair, too: the Outsiders might be closer to the accurate Pass Pro ranking than PFF is, because Freddie had the Tight Ends chipping, and Duke Johnson did an outstanding job stopping leaks, as well.

When Mayfield scrambled, the Outsiders probably ignored it and still dinged Offensive Linemen who got beat, too.  Just because he can't catch the lil bastid doesn't mean a defender didn't beat a block.

And now there goes Zeitler!  That won't help at all.

Now for the good news:

1: The 2018 Offensive Line featured 2 new starters on Game 1, and one of these was Des Harrison, who started on the blind side for 8 games.

2: JC Tretter played most of the season with a high ankle sprain.  Wow!

3: I need Jake Burns to fact-check me on this, but I think Todd Haley was pretty conventional (ie a Jacksonian blockhead).

He didn't run RPOs or zone-block much, refused to let Nick Chubb play, and had Mayfield (and Taylor) "standing tall" and going vertical.

That exposed Harrison (and did Hubbard no favors either by the way) in pass-protection, and Harrison as a weak run-blocker.

4: I want to see the SECOND HALF stats for this Offensive Line in 2018 (you too, Outsiders!)  

How many times did YOU see NICK CHUBB stuffed for a loss?  One out of four?  No fkng way.  And I really doubt that he batted .500 on third down runs, too!

Here again, remember Todd Haley.  Dorsey traded Hyde to force him to use Chubb for several games before he was fired, and he was still running his cave-man scheme.

When Freddie took over, he changed everything, in one week.  

As it pertains to the Offensive Line, it was more Zone-blocking on runs, which was perfect for Chubb and easy for the blockers.  Chubb almost broke 1,000 yards in 12 games who wooda thunked it?

More slants and crosses, a shallower pocket, and quicker releases (with some RPOs) took Mayfield back to Oklahoma.

That and Mayfield's mobility stifled conventional edge-rushes (protecting the sub-Joe Thomas Tackles from even Pro Football Outsiders!)

I bet the Outsiders aggragate ranking for the Browns Oline in the last half of 2018 was top 8 overall.  (PFF might have them top 3).

Now, Zeitler's successor won't be as good as he was, at least in 2019, and probably not ever, but an apparent shift to mostly Zone-blocking and some RPOs will mitigate that a LOT.

Tretter will be 100% again, and Bitonio is Bitonio.  These are Pro Bowl talents, and I now believe that Rodney Corbettfield will be Tretter's primary backup in 2019, regardless of whether or not he wins the Right Guard Derby (which I think he will...but I want odds, see?)

Sigh...Corbett is a Bitonio clone.  You people are going to be embarrassed for calling him a bust.

Anyway, I concede that there are some question marks here, and zero veteran depth at Tackle, but with intelligent COACHING, this 2019 Browns Offensive Line should be pretty good; at least in the top third in the NFL...like I bet the Outsiders would tell you it was for the second half of 2018.

Now for the Defense: 

The Football 101 Cliffnotes on Off-man coverage says what I said.  

Steve Wilks's first ever appearance at Defensive Coordinator was with the 2017 Carolina Panthers, and he inheritted issues at cornerback.

Wilks set up his defense partly in response to these issues, and it's spectacularly ignorant to label him on that basis.

Real experts do expect a defacto Big Nickel base, and a lot of 4-man fronts based on the talent on THIS team, but none of these ex-players or coaches are calling Wilks a "zone guy" based on one year in Carolina and a Head Coach stint in Arizona.

Here in 2019, Steve Wilks has Denzel Ward, Mitchell, and Greedy Williams at Cornerback.  All excel in press/man, and he's never had this before.

I'm telling you again, because it's obvious, that Wilks will use press/man whenever it makes sense.

Jake Burns broke down some camp-tapes of OBJ vs Greedy and Ward (can't find the article).

Williams played off-man, which makes sense: If OBJ gets one step on Greedy, it's over...

I mean Williams can catch up to him (maybe, because he has longer legs), but it would take too long.

Anyway, when Greedy was drafted and people fretted over his skinniness and poor tackling I told you people that he could play off-man as well as anybody until he bulked up zzinggg!

The Seahawks' Richard Sherman comes to mind.

Off-man is meant to take away deep routes.  Even the fastest receivers can't blow by a capable off-man CB unless he screws up.  He will turn and run with him if he stays vertical.

Off-man doesn't require help from the deep safety because it caps off the deep routes.

By design, it forces the reciever to "break off" (more often inside than outside) while the off-man corner is still in his backpedal.  

A well-timed, accurate pass should be caught here, off this break and separation, but the Cornerback breaks along with the receiver, and remains "on top" of him, so he will run him down, or nail him if he turns upfield with the ball.

Off-man also works well vs "bunch" (aka "diamond") formations and pick-routes because of the cushion but I digress:

Anyway (duh) Greedy Williams looks great in off-man so far duh and (trust me) Terrence Mitchell won't be getting his job back.

But (sigh) you people still don't get it:

Denzel Ward will often press/man OBJs, while Greedy will off-man them.  Greedy will press/man taller, less explosive guys...

...well if he's strong enough at this point...at any rate, it's about individual matchups.

I'm not sure about this, but hope springs infernal: I HOPE that Steve Wilks will adapt his defense to his talent.

So far, it looks like he will.

His extensive use of Whitehead, moving Avery to the Defensive Ends room, and how he has used his outside corners are all good signs.

In re Avery, (blush-blush) I've been comparing him to (a human version of) James Harrison since he was drafted.

While I've also pointed out that he was (and still is) the fastest and quickest real linebacker on this roster, I get this:

James Harrison was a 3-4 OLB, but this is a 4-man front base defense, with 2 (or fewer) real linebackers in the real base.

Steve Wilks has decided that Avery should focus on sacking quarterbacks, and this makes a lot of sense:

1: Genard Avery is faster (and probably STRONGER) than everybody else in the Browns front 7.

2: It's a "rotational"/"depth" thing: Wilks needs to rest and preserve his studs.

You people don't get this, but in certain situations, vs certain offenses, Avery can...

Crap it's deep...Wilks can use Takitaki and Avery and/or Takitaki at DE in certain situations.  If you think that having any one or two of the starting front 4 off the field is unthinkable, think again: 

Genard Avery is the real deal as a passrusher (outside or inside).

He can sub for Garrett or Vernon!   HONEST!

Avery is faster, quicker, and stronger than both of them DO YOU UNDERSTAND?  He's also lighter and shorter, so nevermind...you idiots.

I might be overestimating Steve Wilks like I did Gregg Williams, but so far it looks like he is maxing out the talent he has here and now.

You people are fixated on a 4-man front based on the projected starters on the Defensive Line.

WRONG! Depending on the given Offense and situation, all sentient Defensive Coordinators try to adapt to the opposing offense however they can.

Every Defensive Coordinator in the NFL can run 3-4 or 4-3 and eveything else, DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

You don't.  Steve Wilks is a "4-2-5" guy, right?

Sorry to hurt your feelings here, but for at least the last 4 seasons, nickel defenses have been the real base defenses of every team in the NFL.

4-3, 3-4? If you believed that, you are a...nevermind but at least Wilks came out of the closet and TOLD you people about it.

Sadly, Wilks wasn't specific enough, so you people expect a 4-man front no madder wudd...

Yeah Wilks is a "zone guy" and the 4 down linemen are automatic nomaddewudd until they get injured or wear out duh...

You people...No I'm sorry: I remember being even dumber than you.  I hope Grossi never read the vicious, idiotic crap I sent him.

Don't get me wrong here: if Tony says this and I say that, "that" is correct.  

But Tony is a good analyst, and so is Mary Kay, and I am overjoyed to inform those of you who bash them that I was never as dumb as you! 

Obviously, I am better than both of them (and Pluto...and everybody else), but Terry, Mary, and Tony aren't idiots, so let up on them!

If you need to bash somebody, you have a target-rich environment.  Read one of my posts, and see who copies me 12-36 hours later and bash THEM.

OK

Business is Business. Paul DePodesta, Strategery, and the Browns

Terry Pluto et al are wrong about the Duke Johnson situation.  Trading him would set no dangerous precedent, because he is justified in his trade request, as he has indeed become a fifth wheel.

Comparing him to Antonio Brown or Ebineezer Bell is just dumb.

And why do you seem to forsee a flood of trade demands, should John Dorsey "cave" now?  Hell, Duke's last straw was Dorsey admitting that he was "on the block" in the first place!

And I told you why before Dorsey said that!  I told you way back then that Hilliard can do everything Duke did, plus is a little bigger.

At the time, I said it wasn't about Kareem Hunt, but they've been lining Hunt up at WR, so I was wrong about that too.

You think players and agents are a bunch of stupid brats, or what?  Who tf else on the Browns would ask for a trade?  And if anybody did, wouldn't "no" mean no anymore?

Jeff Risdon listed 6 things we learned about the 2019 Browns, and the one that bugged me was his assertion that this team lacks depth at Offensive Tackle.

I can't refute that.  Jeff is not impressed by veteran free agent Kendall Lamm, and the younger guys are raw and unproven.

I'd be more nervous about that if this was a cave-man offense, in which you so often have a "prototype" Quarterback standing tall 7 steps deep, patiently waiting for his deep receivers to uncover...like everybody else thinks it is...

But didn't any of you see the formations Freddie used the instant he took over the offense, or the patterns the receivers ran?

Have you somehow managed to miss Monken's scheme, and what they practiced throughout OTAs and Minicamp?

Sigh.  Here we go again: Freddie used extra tight ends to chip the edge guys, denying them the edge, and delivering them into the powerful hands of the tackles.

2: Baker Mayfield made the Tackles look good by either getting rid of the ball early, or running away from pressure (and more often than not completing a pass anyway).

3: Monken is a reputed "Air Raid" guy, but has said he intends to run RPOs a lot, and in Preseason so far Jake Burns has observed that the Browns have been running more compact formations than spreads.

As I pointed out in earlier posts, this will help the two outside receivers get open sooner, as the outside DBs will have to play "off" them (really, they start out open, and that's Landry, OBJ, and Callaway.)

Then of course the Tight end(s) will set up in-line more often, so they can chip.

RPOs rely on zone-blocking, which looks to defenders like pass blocking for the first second or 2.  It confuses them.

Further, the passes in RPOs come out quickly, so these defenses with scary edge-guys hesitate to give them outside "go's" because the Quarterback sets up shallow, and it takes too long for them to run all the way around the Offensive Tackle.

Defenses will try blowing these offenses up with inside (up the gut) pressure, but that's a separate issue; RPOs help Offensive Tackles, see?

We all miss Joe Thomas, but Kitchens, Monken, and Dorsey have adapted to the modern NFL.  The Browns, like the majority of other NFL teams, can get by with so-so Offensive Tackles, and are trying to get better Centers and Guards.

Most Head Coaches are copycats, and that's one reason Lord Insideous keeps winning Superbowls.  He's the guy everybody else tries to copy.

Look at the crap Freddie Kitchens pulled last season!  The Wishbone? An inverted Wishbone?  3 Tight ends?

I'm optimistic that Freddie Kitchens isn't a copycat.  Monken is adapting to him, and seems happy with it so far.

Naturally, Defenses are already coming up with countermeasures (notably inside passrushers) to stifle RPOs, like they stifled the read/option, and the Browns probably won't run that often enough to make it a "tendancy".

Nor will they abandon the spread and Air-Raid stuff.  That would be stupid, with Mayfield and OBJ; they have to go deep sometimes.

"Identity" chuh.  They have the offensive talent to be whoever they need to be.

Risdon's concerns are right in one respect:  On 3rd and 20, trying to come back yeah...you need those Tackles.  The Browns could lose a playoff game because of it.

I hope Jeff is wrong about Lamm, or that one of the young guys pans out.

Jeff also notes (better late than never) that the 2019 Browns will use only two real linebackers about 80% of the time.

But that doesn't even mean that they'll use 3 the other 20% of the time.  Ever hear of a "Dime Defense"?

This is why, even before Steve Wilks was hired,  I've been telling you that concerns over "depth at linebacker" were stupid.

So far the lead linebackers are Schobert and Kirksey, but keep your erasers handy:

Schobert is a brain, but Steve Wilks isn't Gregg Williams, and doesn't need him to be a Field-General.  Joe excels in coverage, but Wilks has real Defensive Backs doing that for him too.

Schobert led the NFL in missed tackles last season, and is entering the final year of his contract.  He has real trade value, and Dorsey will not be able to afford him, so do the math.

Kirksey is, per PFF, an inferior linebacker, all around, and is being paid too much for that.

Meanwhile, Takitaki looks terrific, and Wilson looks good too, and Adarius Taylor is Kirksey (except cheaper, and better on Special Teams).

Football is a business, and John Dorsey needs to start rebuilding his cap money right tf now, because he has a couple massive balloon payments on the horizon.

He also needs more draft picks.

Dorsey has been bashed for getting the Chiefs in cap trouble.  I haven't checked that out yet, but it wouldn't surprise me.

But you people don't get this: Paul DePodesta is still here, for a REASON.  And he is NOT subserviant to John Dorsey...for a REASON.

Trust me: Paul is pushing to trade Duke and Schobert, and to release Kirksey.

Forget the "dead money" hit, ok?  It's irrelevant for 2019 and off the books in 2020.  You people say the funniest things!

Anyway, DePodesta is an "efficiency expert", and he's asking "who are we going to cut in favor of Kirksey?  Isn't Taylor as good as he is?  Schobert ran Gregg's Defense and covered, but led the league in missed tackles, and what are your plans for him, Steve?  He's made a Pro Bowl and is elite in coverage-he will be gone in 2020 no matter what, John."

Duke Johnson makes too much money for his projected role, and Dontrell Hilliard appears to have taken over that role---for what that's worth in a new offensive scheme.

He offers value to other teams.  Cash out now.

Paul DePodesta has to be excited about Kareem Hunt: 

Obviously in 2019 he represents perhaps unprecedented RB depth for the last half of the season and the playoffs, but then he's gone, right (one year deal)?

Maybe not! Chubb will have 2 years left on his rookie contract, and the Garrett/Mayfield/Ogunjobi/Ward/Williams etc balloon payments are a couple years away.

DePodesta Dorsey could re-sign Hunt to an obviously very expensive contract, see?

So in 2020 it's Chubb AND Hunt?  Are you KIDDING ME?

Well, not neccessarily: Before, during, or after 2020 Kareem Hunt is on the block, and inflation will make him cheaper:

You have to remember that Kareem Hunt is a Swiss Army Knife like Ebineezer Bell or Todd Gurley.

He can line up anywhere Duke or Ebineezer line up.  Several teams would want him bad, high salary and all.  He could rate a first round pick, or multiple picks, or players.

...e voila! There goes the big cap hit, here comes the draft picks, and we can afford Nick Chubb!

Sorry was that too complicated?

That's why DePodesta is DePodesta, and you're not.

DePodesta is the Chief Strategy Officer.  Jimmy Haslam hired this top business consultant away from the Fortune 500 and everybody else to build a dynasty here.

"Moneyball" my ass!  Look up Paul Depodesta on Wikapedia, for cryin out loud! You thought he was picking players? He's not a talent scout and KNOWS it oh you people...

...I guess power struggles and egotism are more common among you than I thought it was.  These crappy fake reality shows are like the Soap Operas I remember on steroids.

Then there's the deliberate conversion of public education into public indoctrination but I digress:

Paul DePodesta is an efficiency expert.  Jimmy Haslam probably hired him some time in the past to help him take over Flying J and expand massively.

At the time, Jimmy might not even have been aware that he was the "moneyball" guy.

Anyway, this is why I expect Schobert and Johnson to be traded, and Kirksey to be released.

The Hunt thing might not happen, as his agents will want him to test free agency first, and the bids would get rediculous.

On the other hand, Hunt is damaged goods due to his off-the-field antics, and is in some sort of alcholic treatment program...

I could go on and on but it's last call okbye