First, Hue Jackson does not desperately feel an urgent need for a veteran starting quarterback not named Kessler to fill one of the twenty to desperately urgent holes on the roster.
Tony Romo is NOT an option good grief.
I suppose Tyrod Taylor could be considered, but not if any other team is dumb enough to approach his massively inflated asking price. As I've said, Rodney Kesslerfield might just be at least as good as Tyrod in year two.
The concussions are a concern, but that's all. I can't fathom this utter disregard for a guy who played so well as a rookie on a bad team last season! Wow!!!
Second, Bill has another option for Jimmy G: He can put a first round round tender on him at the end of the 2017 season. This would allow him to retain his top backup for 2017 AND insure compensation if he's not ready to move on from Brady yet.
The first round tender is pretty expensive, but no where near starting quarterback money, so if there are no offers, Bill keeps him for one more season (after this one). If there are offers, he can either match, or take the first round pick.
You heard this here first. You will not think of it five minutes from now. You read this. Yes you did.
So Jimmy G might not be on the table for the Browns after all. In a couple days, when everybody else is pretending this occurred to them, and they don't raid this blog, remember. You heard it here first. As freaking usual dammit.
Mary Kay keeps citing two top personnel people who are not only saying that Trubisky is better than Wentz, but that he's worth the first overall pick. Unlike LaCanfora, Mary Kay has actual sources; these guys actually exist, and actually said this stuff.
But then there's Mahones.
I've taken another look at Jonathan Allen since Mayock brought him up as a Browns option again. I was wrong to call him "the other guy", because he is a freaking monster, just like Garrett.
Hyperbole aside, Allen is right there with Garrett, and is a MUCH, MUCH better fit in Gregg Williams' scheme (given this roster) than Garrett.
I won't re-list the FIVE edge-rushers on the current roster yet again (nobody listens anyway), but I can re-state that the biggest REAL question mark on this defensive front is at under ("three technique") defensive tackle.
Prior to last season, Jonathan Allen was a 267 lb defensive end, scouted by some as a 3-4 OLB prospect. Now at 293 lbs., Allen is still a fit at any one-gap position in any scheme, as well as a two-gap defensive end, although he'd be wasted there.
Myles Garrett is clearly the best edge rusher, but Allen is better between the tackles. He surprised everybody when he returned for his Senior season, as he would have been a first round pick last season.
Allen wanted to prove he could be an every-down player who could stop the run too, and boy he sure did! Against better competition than Myles Garrett's.
There are zero questions about Allen's motor. Nobody ever got the best of him. He is mature, smart, and a class guy (no knock on Garrett here: that video was no big deal. Kids do dumb stuff. Thank God Utube wasn't around when I was his age.)
On this particular defense, Jonathan Allen would make a bigger impact than Garrett, and even give Gregg Williams more options.
He would be the starting under-tackle between Ogbah and Shelton in the standard front. Currently, X Cooper is the only guy on the roster with a shot at being effective at this position. Cooper was used in a similar role by Ray Horton in 2016, and failed. Horton had to run different schemes as a result: there were no other inside penetrators on that roster.
If we go best available, Myles Garrett does have an edge; he is indeed a generational talent. But as usual, a slight edge is being artificially inflated by hype. Some smart people prefer Allen as the safer pick.
I just saw another mock draft taking Mitch Trubisky first overall. I have no opinion: Hue hasn't got back to me yet.
An interview on NFL Radio brought me back to Vols QB Josh Dobbs, my latest desperation sleeper pick.
I always start with the negatives, and Josh has several. His just over 61% completion percentage is unimpressive. He's kind of skinny, and has a bit of a windup "hitch". 53 touchdowns passes, 29 interceptions is not good, but that's for his career...hmm as a Senior, he completed 63%, with 27 touchdowns and 12 picks (150.58 QBR).
That's it so far. He's quite athletic; actually a dual threat. He's at his best on inside slants and crosses, although he's shown great placement on sideline throws (has a good arm).
He had a great week of practice and a good game at the Senior Bowl.
Here's why I think he might be a sleeper: He majored in Aerospace Engineering. That's right: He's a rocket scientist.
You know how these interviews go, right? The player recites memorized, carefully worded answers, sometimes to the wrong question? Starts every other sentence with "I mean--". Is for world peace and all that?
Not this guy. He was just himself, and his brains showed through.
His curriculum was brutal, as you can imagine. He didn't go for the false modesty crap, but just said it took discipline. He had to set up and stick to study schedules, and budget his time. Accomplishing his academics and football too was impressive.
Here's the thing: As an aerospace engineering major playing football, he had to split his time and concentration, and frankly his classes were the bigger challenge for this guy.
As an NFL player, he will apply all that discipline and brainpower only to football. He already has the most important traits of the greatest NFL quarterbacks.
We can't just assume that he loves football the way Peyton Manning or Tom Brady do, but we do know that he is disciplined, focussed, and works hard.
As he said, he is aware of his own flaws as a player, and is working with Jeff Blake and others to fix himself. He radiates confidence. He will absolutely master any playbook at lightspeed, and know what each and every other player is supposed to do. He will command the huddle. Probably, he will know where to throw before the ball is snapped.
Every NFL quarterback will tell you that accuracy is the result of consistency: Setting your feet just so in relation to your target, and using the same ingrained throwing motion every time (when possible).
Dobbs ran an air raid offense, but Rang notes that he often hit second or third options quickly. A guy wired this way can definitely manage correct drops and timed reads.
Dobbs has 37 games under his belt, but is considered a developmental prospect. This is realistic, but Walter Football has already mocked him to the Browns in the third round.
He's 6'3", 210 lbs. Some teams may want to try him at wide receiver (he has caught several passes on trick plays, and is scary in the open field...he's ready for the wildcat right now).
NFL strength training should make him bigger and stronger, but some pick at him for failing to spot defenders lurking in the flats, which is a tougher thing to diagnose. He looks more like a West Coast guy than a mad bomber at this point.
Hue Jackson now knows Josh well, and just might make Walter Football right for a change.
Or not. I dunno.
Friday, February 17, 2017
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
Casserly, Jimmy G, the Browns, Logic, and Realism
Long time NFL GM Charlie Casserly didn't get the memo from the bad analyst I vivisected in my last post, and had the temerity to mock Jimmy Garopollo to the Cleveland Browns.
Forget Mary Kay, Mayock, and the ex-players too: Casserly is an old veteran dealmaker, and you guys need to take this possibility a little more seriously, as of now.
Some serious analysts have been pouring icewater on this rumor of late, but they are late. In my first post on this subject, I cited exactly the same reasons they cite now about why the Sith Lord in New England would never do this:
Father Time is undefeated, and eventually he'll get the almost 40 year old Tom Brady...and soon. Jimmy G isn't like Cassel, or Mallett. Kyle Shanahan (and I) were not alone in wondering why everybody didn't love Jimmy G.
Just check it out, and compare the respective predraft scouting reports on these three quarterbacks. Garopollo also had the most starts in college. He did run a spread system, but experience is experience (ask Bill Parcells or Gil Brandt or any other real pro).
Jimmy was stellar in his preseason games (twelve of them), and contrary to popular belief, these were NOT utterly meaningless.
I said all that, then remembered the other side: The MONEY side, which these other guys don't seem to have taken seriously enough yet:
Tom Brady just won another Superbowl. He shows no signs of slowing down. The Falcons beat him up pretty good, but he kept getting up. He has the quickest release in football.
This five more years stuff is pretty silly, but two or three is not unreasonable, based on what we all just saw.
These writers expect Jimmy G to accept less money and collect more splinters just so he can take over for Tom when HE is pushing 30?
No! No real competitor would accept that! It's not just the money: He wants to PLAY! I'm sure he loves the Patriots, but he loves playing football more!
Even if Jimmy were willing to watch 2-3 more years of his career drift on by unremarked, he'd reasonably ask for his market value, and that is around 18 million per season at this point. STARTER money, because the teams who will contend for his services will want him as a STARTER, and offer him that.
Bill no doubt wants to keep Garopollo (btw whoever asked "why do the Patriots want to get rid of him so bad?" needs to be sterilized before he can piss in the gene pool), but there's this thing called a "salary cap", you see?
By the way, the Patriots have cap room only temporarily. This will go away shortly, as several critical free agents are re-signed...can't you see this coming?
Bill can't PAY Tom and Jimmy both. The writers I refer to here are smart people, and I'm not bashing them. But they also don't understand how Bill thinks. Hold on to this kid for one more year and then watch him walk away, or get some serious draft picks for him now hmmm...
No "hmm" about it! More like "duh", right!?
Casserly gets it. That's why he says it will cost the Browns the 12th overall pick (after they draft Garrett cool! Maybe he's been reading my blog! Look around a month ago!)
I admit it: I want this, because (if I knew what Hue knows and agreed with myself about Jimmy G) this is exactly what I would do. And trust me: Sashi Brown hopes Hue will rubber stamp this move, because he wants to do it too.
I believe that one reason why the Pryor extention is on the front page now is so that Jimmy and his agent will take these Browns seriously, and negotiate in earnest.
I still think Deshaun Watson is being "misdiagnosed", and that Trubisky might well actually be a future franchise guy himself, but grabbing either of them at 12 is more of a daydream than anything else.
ALL of these guys are shotgun spread guys. Mike Mayock says they track their receivers, and not the secondary. Their systems are designed to get one receiver open against predictable coverage and mismatches. There is sometimes a bailout option (on the same side of the field), but no third or fourth reads.
None of these guys has had the chance to prove they have the mental hardware to manage a pro offense under fire, and this is why Mike Mayock would be "scared to death" to draft any of them high (and, in fairness, why many scouts are scared to death of Watson's interceptions).
Look at boxing: A lot of super-tough brawlers get destroyed in the ring. Some, like Joe Lewis or Rocky Marciano, can be taught not to lunge, keep their hands up, elbows in, combinations and all that crap, but some can't:
The instant they get their bell rung, they revert. They're off-balance, with their gloves down; they're all offense, no defense. It's the same with quarterbacks. For every great spread air-raid quarterback who succeeds, five fail.
Garopollo has spent years in the gym, with pro trainers. Everything is muscle-memory for him now. He's only had one and a half real fights, but he's been sparring against real hardasses for a long time.
When he gets his bell rung, he won't revert. Get it?
In this situation, in which every potential rookie quarterback is high-risk, Garopollo's absolute FLOOR is "competent".
Still with me here -snap-snap!? This analySIS stuff bores normal people I was just wondering anyway:
Based on his college stats, scouting reports, preseason performances, and six real game quarters, it is far more likely that Garopollo can at least be a top ten quarterback with a reasonable supporting cast, and is ready to start immediately.
Remember: For three years, he ran New England's scout team. He has repeatedly run every offense in the NFL, including Hue Jackson's.
So while it is possible that both Trubisky AND Watson three years from now could be better than Jimmy G is, it's also possible that one or both of them sputter and die.
For Sashi Brown and Hue, Casserly's prediction is absolutely the safest course of action in this situation at this time. Jimmy Haslam has promised to give this regime time, but if they screw up, he will be justified if he fires them at around the end of 2018.
This is taking lemons and making lemonade.
Plan B, I now think, could be Patrick Mahones. Jim Miller loves him. Mike Mayock says he has the most arm talent; Brett Favre type arm talent. Pinpoint accurate 52 yards in the air arm talent.
Per these guys (note not me, THEM-and himself, as I heard them interview him), Patrick needs to focus on his footwork. He tends to throw off-balance too often when he has chances to re-set his feet and stabalize his throwing platform (Brady is THE model for this). When his feet are planted, Mahones is extremely accurate, with perfect touch, at any range, crossing or vertical.
His offense is a little different, as he got to indeed go deep more than most of the other guys not named Watson, so nobody questions his deep accuracy.
Notably, he is a junior, coming out early. Mike Mayock feels that he's not "ripe" yet, and that if he'd played another season in college, he might possibly have been the top quarterback in the 2018 draft.
As it is, Mayock projects him as a high second round pick. The Browns draft first in the second round.
Like the others, Mahones ran an air-raid offense. Like the others, he hasn't proven his mental hardware. But he has practiced from under center daily (he says he also needs to work on his drops; 3, 5, 7 steps. "For the timing and my linemen, so they know where I am"--he gets all that, at least, see?).
Here's an insurance plan: Chad Kelly. I talked up Jim's more athletic nephew somewhat when I expected him to make waves at the Senior Bowl, which is no doubt why he got his knee tore up (sorry Chad).
Acl and lateral miniscus, whatever the hell that is anyway: The surgeries were successful and the prognosis is he'll be fine, but not until very late 2017 at the earliest, and 2018 for any intelligent management team.
Chad may not even be drafted because of this.
In one of my past lives, I cruised tree lawns on garbage day, looking for stuff to sell at flea markets. Old clocks, broken coffee tables, artwork, etc., but mostly stuff that was damaged or broken.
I had some skills, and freinds with skills, so I could fix this stuff, and turn junk into a few bucks for beer or whatever.
Well, that's Chad Kelly. Chad is more like a clock than a coffee table, though. He looks like he's worth money if I get him working ok and shine him up a little, but who knows?
Regardless of what the Browns do with Garopollo, Mahones, or anybody else, they probably SHOULD nail down Kelly with their lowest draft pick (and I don't need to defer to Hue Jackson on this; it's a Sashi Brown thing).
I'm not certain that Kelly would even take up an IR spot on the 2017 roster. But he could be in the meetings, learning the ropes.
Chad Kelly has real talent and potential, and should be ready for the 2018 season. If Garopollo, Mahones, or Rodney Kesslerfield or whoever works out, fine. If not, here's Chad!
That's insurance. Mike Mayock favorite tight end Jake Butt is not.
I need to self-correct here: In an earlier post, I cited Mike Mayock in declaring this draft full of real tight ends. What Mayock actually said was that there are tons of pass-catching tight ends in this draft. I screwed up big-time here: I heard what I wanted to hear, rather than what he said. Shame on me.
Anyway, Butt is one of only TWO real tight ends Mike has identified in this draft.
The other guy is a physical freak who dominated the Senior Bowl and will probably go in the first round.
Butt isn't a freak, but IS the better blocker of the two, and a super-RELIABLE receiver who just isn't as much of a deep threat big-play guy.
Well, Butt done tore his acl, and will be a non-factor in 2017.
Healthy, he was a second rounder, with an outside shot at the first round. Crippled, he still might go in the fourth, or even the third...or undrafted (as idiotic as that would be).
If he's there in the fourth round, Sashi needs to nab and stash this guy.
Jake Butt is out of Michigan, and is pro-ready. He could be the Browns starting tight end in 2018. In addition to blocking in-line, he does everything else Barnidge does, ok?
Rob Gronkowski was obviously the best tight end in his draft class, but had back issues (HUGE red flag!) so he slid deep into the second round, where the Sith Lord nabbed him dirt-cheap.
Butt isn't Gronk, but an acl isn't a spine, either. Gary Barnidge isn't Gronk, either, but wouldn't you jump on him in the fourth...I mean if he could shove defensive ends around? Get it?
In general, this is the bargain bin of the draft. There are the projects, with great physical talent but very raw, but then also the crips:
Injured guys nobody wants because they're spazzes.
...Ok that's not quite fair: We in Cleveland think Hair-Trigger Haslam is the only owner that hasn't given front offices any time at all. In reality, the life expectancies of Head Coaches and General Managers approximate those of big running backs.
They generally can't afford to think into the future, because if they don't win enough THIS year, they're fired. Drafting a Chad Kelly or a Jake Butt, who can't help NOW, even on special teams, is hard for them.
I submit to you that you are wrong about Jimmy Haslam, and that this new regime DOES have time, and that he will be patient. I'll go into what he's done with Pilot/Flying J in a later post, but I probably know this guy better than you do.
Long story short: Jimmy and Sashi TALK TO EACHOTHER, believe it or not!
You know, like "We're not going to reach the playoffs next year. You get that right?"
"Yep".
"Whew! Ok then I want to use some of the lower picks on injured players, and others who won't do shit next year...you want a dynasty, right?"
"Like the Steelers. Yes."
"Perfect. Well, buy low, sell high. Low risk, high reward, diversification. Butt is a can't-miss Barnidge upgrade in 2018, which is the earliest year I think we can contend in this division. He'll upgrade the blocking, and frankly the receiving too, since Gary is fading--I've got the numbers--"
"No I get it."
"We'll get 3 mil cap space back on the turnover, and might even get a 7th rounder out of it too. Kelly is different. He could crap out, but it wouldn't hurt us at all. We're loaded on special teams. He's plan c, in case all the other guys crap out".
"You think they might?"
"Ask Hue. He doesn't. This is my idea, but Hue does like him. Don't put all your eggs in one--"
"I get it. Go on."
"That's all for now, but I wanted you to know, we're building you a dynasty. It will, indeed, take some time. This is how the Steelers, Patriots, and--"
"I get it."
That's almost certainly not close to the real conversations, but for my purposes works here: Jimmy Haslam is not an impatient control freak, throwing temper-tantrums. His wife Dee sounds pretty smart/cool as well. Bringing her in was partly a PR move to back YOU guys off.
This is my impression: Sashi, Paul, and Hue truly have time. At least two more years, and more likely three or four. They're not the Steelers or Packers or Patriots yet, but they're more secure than most other staffs.
For the first time since he bought the Cleveland Browns, Jimmy got all HIS top picks, you see? He believes in them, and will give them time. Yes, he will.
SOOO, Sashi can "waste" draft picks on projects and injured players, and take some risks.
The Garopollo thing is different, of course. Missing on a quarterback spells this regime's doom, because (in reality, on this planet) Cody Kessler wins at least four games next season...or six with Garrett.
No such thing as a franchise quarterback tree. Not 7th or 10th in most drafts. It could be now or never for the Browns.
Yeah...Myles Garrett snd Jimmy G...wow. I hope Casserly is right.
Forget Mary Kay, Mayock, and the ex-players too: Casserly is an old veteran dealmaker, and you guys need to take this possibility a little more seriously, as of now.
Some serious analysts have been pouring icewater on this rumor of late, but they are late. In my first post on this subject, I cited exactly the same reasons they cite now about why the Sith Lord in New England would never do this:
Father Time is undefeated, and eventually he'll get the almost 40 year old Tom Brady...and soon. Jimmy G isn't like Cassel, or Mallett. Kyle Shanahan (and I) were not alone in wondering why everybody didn't love Jimmy G.
Just check it out, and compare the respective predraft scouting reports on these three quarterbacks. Garopollo also had the most starts in college. He did run a spread system, but experience is experience (ask Bill Parcells or Gil Brandt or any other real pro).
Jimmy was stellar in his preseason games (twelve of them), and contrary to popular belief, these were NOT utterly meaningless.
I said all that, then remembered the other side: The MONEY side, which these other guys don't seem to have taken seriously enough yet:
Tom Brady just won another Superbowl. He shows no signs of slowing down. The Falcons beat him up pretty good, but he kept getting up. He has the quickest release in football.
This five more years stuff is pretty silly, but two or three is not unreasonable, based on what we all just saw.
These writers expect Jimmy G to accept less money and collect more splinters just so he can take over for Tom when HE is pushing 30?
No! No real competitor would accept that! It's not just the money: He wants to PLAY! I'm sure he loves the Patriots, but he loves playing football more!
Even if Jimmy were willing to watch 2-3 more years of his career drift on by unremarked, he'd reasonably ask for his market value, and that is around 18 million per season at this point. STARTER money, because the teams who will contend for his services will want him as a STARTER, and offer him that.
Bill no doubt wants to keep Garopollo (btw whoever asked "why do the Patriots want to get rid of him so bad?" needs to be sterilized before he can piss in the gene pool), but there's this thing called a "salary cap", you see?
By the way, the Patriots have cap room only temporarily. This will go away shortly, as several critical free agents are re-signed...can't you see this coming?
Bill can't PAY Tom and Jimmy both. The writers I refer to here are smart people, and I'm not bashing them. But they also don't understand how Bill thinks. Hold on to this kid for one more year and then watch him walk away, or get some serious draft picks for him now hmmm...
No "hmm" about it! More like "duh", right!?
Casserly gets it. That's why he says it will cost the Browns the 12th overall pick (after they draft Garrett cool! Maybe he's been reading my blog! Look around a month ago!)
I admit it: I want this, because (if I knew what Hue knows and agreed with myself about Jimmy G) this is exactly what I would do. And trust me: Sashi Brown hopes Hue will rubber stamp this move, because he wants to do it too.
I believe that one reason why the Pryor extention is on the front page now is so that Jimmy and his agent will take these Browns seriously, and negotiate in earnest.
I still think Deshaun Watson is being "misdiagnosed", and that Trubisky might well actually be a future franchise guy himself, but grabbing either of them at 12 is more of a daydream than anything else.
ALL of these guys are shotgun spread guys. Mike Mayock says they track their receivers, and not the secondary. Their systems are designed to get one receiver open against predictable coverage and mismatches. There is sometimes a bailout option (on the same side of the field), but no third or fourth reads.
None of these guys has had the chance to prove they have the mental hardware to manage a pro offense under fire, and this is why Mike Mayock would be "scared to death" to draft any of them high (and, in fairness, why many scouts are scared to death of Watson's interceptions).
Look at boxing: A lot of super-tough brawlers get destroyed in the ring. Some, like Joe Lewis or Rocky Marciano, can be taught not to lunge, keep their hands up, elbows in, combinations and all that crap, but some can't:
The instant they get their bell rung, they revert. They're off-balance, with their gloves down; they're all offense, no defense. It's the same with quarterbacks. For every great spread air-raid quarterback who succeeds, five fail.
Garopollo has spent years in the gym, with pro trainers. Everything is muscle-memory for him now. He's only had one and a half real fights, but he's been sparring against real hardasses for a long time.
When he gets his bell rung, he won't revert. Get it?
In this situation, in which every potential rookie quarterback is high-risk, Garopollo's absolute FLOOR is "competent".
Still with me here -snap-snap!? This analySIS stuff bores normal people I was just wondering anyway:
Based on his college stats, scouting reports, preseason performances, and six real game quarters, it is far more likely that Garopollo can at least be a top ten quarterback with a reasonable supporting cast, and is ready to start immediately.
Remember: For three years, he ran New England's scout team. He has repeatedly run every offense in the NFL, including Hue Jackson's.
So while it is possible that both Trubisky AND Watson three years from now could be better than Jimmy G is, it's also possible that one or both of them sputter and die.
For Sashi Brown and Hue, Casserly's prediction is absolutely the safest course of action in this situation at this time. Jimmy Haslam has promised to give this regime time, but if they screw up, he will be justified if he fires them at around the end of 2018.
This is taking lemons and making lemonade.
Plan B, I now think, could be Patrick Mahones. Jim Miller loves him. Mike Mayock says he has the most arm talent; Brett Favre type arm talent. Pinpoint accurate 52 yards in the air arm talent.
Per these guys (note not me, THEM-and himself, as I heard them interview him), Patrick needs to focus on his footwork. He tends to throw off-balance too often when he has chances to re-set his feet and stabalize his throwing platform (Brady is THE model for this). When his feet are planted, Mahones is extremely accurate, with perfect touch, at any range, crossing or vertical.
His offense is a little different, as he got to indeed go deep more than most of the other guys not named Watson, so nobody questions his deep accuracy.
Notably, he is a junior, coming out early. Mike Mayock feels that he's not "ripe" yet, and that if he'd played another season in college, he might possibly have been the top quarterback in the 2018 draft.
As it is, Mayock projects him as a high second round pick. The Browns draft first in the second round.
Like the others, Mahones ran an air-raid offense. Like the others, he hasn't proven his mental hardware. But he has practiced from under center daily (he says he also needs to work on his drops; 3, 5, 7 steps. "For the timing and my linemen, so they know where I am"--he gets all that, at least, see?).
Here's an insurance plan: Chad Kelly. I talked up Jim's more athletic nephew somewhat when I expected him to make waves at the Senior Bowl, which is no doubt why he got his knee tore up (sorry Chad).
Acl and lateral miniscus, whatever the hell that is anyway: The surgeries were successful and the prognosis is he'll be fine, but not until very late 2017 at the earliest, and 2018 for any intelligent management team.
Chad may not even be drafted because of this.
In one of my past lives, I cruised tree lawns on garbage day, looking for stuff to sell at flea markets. Old clocks, broken coffee tables, artwork, etc., but mostly stuff that was damaged or broken.
I had some skills, and freinds with skills, so I could fix this stuff, and turn junk into a few bucks for beer or whatever.
Well, that's Chad Kelly. Chad is more like a clock than a coffee table, though. He looks like he's worth money if I get him working ok and shine him up a little, but who knows?
Regardless of what the Browns do with Garopollo, Mahones, or anybody else, they probably SHOULD nail down Kelly with their lowest draft pick (and I don't need to defer to Hue Jackson on this; it's a Sashi Brown thing).
I'm not certain that Kelly would even take up an IR spot on the 2017 roster. But he could be in the meetings, learning the ropes.
Chad Kelly has real talent and potential, and should be ready for the 2018 season. If Garopollo, Mahones, or Rodney Kesslerfield or whoever works out, fine. If not, here's Chad!
That's insurance. Mike Mayock favorite tight end Jake Butt is not.
I need to self-correct here: In an earlier post, I cited Mike Mayock in declaring this draft full of real tight ends. What Mayock actually said was that there are tons of pass-catching tight ends in this draft. I screwed up big-time here: I heard what I wanted to hear, rather than what he said. Shame on me.
Anyway, Butt is one of only TWO real tight ends Mike has identified in this draft.
The other guy is a physical freak who dominated the Senior Bowl and will probably go in the first round.
Butt isn't a freak, but IS the better blocker of the two, and a super-RELIABLE receiver who just isn't as much of a deep threat big-play guy.
Well, Butt done tore his acl, and will be a non-factor in 2017.
Healthy, he was a second rounder, with an outside shot at the first round. Crippled, he still might go in the fourth, or even the third...or undrafted (as idiotic as that would be).
If he's there in the fourth round, Sashi needs to nab and stash this guy.
Jake Butt is out of Michigan, and is pro-ready. He could be the Browns starting tight end in 2018. In addition to blocking in-line, he does everything else Barnidge does, ok?
Rob Gronkowski was obviously the best tight end in his draft class, but had back issues (HUGE red flag!) so he slid deep into the second round, where the Sith Lord nabbed him dirt-cheap.
Butt isn't Gronk, but an acl isn't a spine, either. Gary Barnidge isn't Gronk, either, but wouldn't you jump on him in the fourth...I mean if he could shove defensive ends around? Get it?
In general, this is the bargain bin of the draft. There are the projects, with great physical talent but very raw, but then also the crips:
Injured guys nobody wants because they're spazzes.
...Ok that's not quite fair: We in Cleveland think Hair-Trigger Haslam is the only owner that hasn't given front offices any time at all. In reality, the life expectancies of Head Coaches and General Managers approximate those of big running backs.
They generally can't afford to think into the future, because if they don't win enough THIS year, they're fired. Drafting a Chad Kelly or a Jake Butt, who can't help NOW, even on special teams, is hard for them.
I submit to you that you are wrong about Jimmy Haslam, and that this new regime DOES have time, and that he will be patient. I'll go into what he's done with Pilot/Flying J in a later post, but I probably know this guy better than you do.
Long story short: Jimmy and Sashi TALK TO EACHOTHER, believe it or not!
You know, like "We're not going to reach the playoffs next year. You get that right?"
"Yep".
"Whew! Ok then I want to use some of the lower picks on injured players, and others who won't do shit next year...you want a dynasty, right?"
"Like the Steelers. Yes."
"Perfect. Well, buy low, sell high. Low risk, high reward, diversification. Butt is a can't-miss Barnidge upgrade in 2018, which is the earliest year I think we can contend in this division. He'll upgrade the blocking, and frankly the receiving too, since Gary is fading--I've got the numbers--"
"No I get it."
"We'll get 3 mil cap space back on the turnover, and might even get a 7th rounder out of it too. Kelly is different. He could crap out, but it wouldn't hurt us at all. We're loaded on special teams. He's plan c, in case all the other guys crap out".
"You think they might?"
"Ask Hue. He doesn't. This is my idea, but Hue does like him. Don't put all your eggs in one--"
"I get it. Go on."
"That's all for now, but I wanted you to know, we're building you a dynasty. It will, indeed, take some time. This is how the Steelers, Patriots, and--"
"I get it."
That's almost certainly not close to the real conversations, but for my purposes works here: Jimmy Haslam is not an impatient control freak, throwing temper-tantrums. His wife Dee sounds pretty smart/cool as well. Bringing her in was partly a PR move to back YOU guys off.
This is my impression: Sashi, Paul, and Hue truly have time. At least two more years, and more likely three or four. They're not the Steelers or Packers or Patriots yet, but they're more secure than most other staffs.
For the first time since he bought the Cleveland Browns, Jimmy got all HIS top picks, you see? He believes in them, and will give them time. Yes, he will.
SOOO, Sashi can "waste" draft picks on projects and injured players, and take some risks.
The Garopollo thing is different, of course. Missing on a quarterback spells this regime's doom, because (in reality, on this planet) Cody Kessler wins at least four games next season...or six with Garrett.
No such thing as a franchise quarterback tree. Not 7th or 10th in most drafts. It could be now or never for the Browns.
Yeah...Myles Garrett snd Jimmy G...wow. I hope Casserly is right.
Monday, February 13, 2017
More Bad Browns Analysis Corrections
I can't waste your time with a link, but I found another really stupid article on why the Browns shouldn't trade 12 overall and a fourth for Jimmy Garopollo (Hue Jackson's opinion is never considered, of course).
The guy goes to the NFL value chart, and says that 12 and a high fourth would make the real value 4th overall.
Hey COOL! This means the Browns can bundle 12 and a high fourth to move up to four and nab somebody right?
Garopollo was drafted way lower, and has barely even played. All he has done is run the scout team vs the starting defense for three seasons, mostly!
Anyway the Moneyball guys would never do this no matter what. Only trading down and piling up more draft picks is possible with this crew of geeks. (Again, Hue Jackson's opinion doesn't count. The author has saved him time here by doing all his scouting for him too!).
And this writer points out the myth that any quarterback mentored in New England is a stud, and lists Matt Cassel and Ryan Mallet. Case closed!
Far be it from me to contradict this conclusive verdict, but I must insist that Hue Jackson just might have something to say about it, despite all this guy's great advice. Mayock and Jim Miller have apparently fallen for it too! Better tip them off, Albert!
Seriously, nevermind.
In my last post I listed Romo, Taylor, and Garopollo as probable FA vets, and left out Jay Cutler. Thet was dumb of me. Jay Cutler is very talented, but has disappointed. He isn't washed up yet, and will come CHEAP, so he is very much in play for quarterback-needy teams against this weak quarterback draft crop.
Now, I haven't yet examined the various contenders in depth yet, including why the hell the Bears are assumed to hate Matt Barkley, but anyway:
As I've previously posted, Romo is a non-starter for any of the teams in the Browns way, but Jimmy G, Cutler, and Taylor are likely considerations. These three and Romo will be signed well ahead of the draft. I reluctantly must include the despicable moron Kaepernick here, since somebody will be dumb enough to sign him, too.
Anyway, three or maybe four of these guys will be signed by teams drafting in the top 11 well ahead of the draft.
Now then: I think that Chicago might well sign Brock Osweiler to compete with Rodney Barkleyfield and not draft a quarterback second overall. I expect the Texans to cut Osweiler loose. Update: No they should keep him nevermind.
The Shanahan-led Niners will try to grab Garopollo. They can't out-bid the Browns, but for the purposes of this excersize, let's just say the Browns do not get Jimmy G and the Niners do, perhaps for second round picks in 2017 and 2018.
What's left to the Jagwires is Taylor, Cutler, and Kaperdick. At this point, I have no idea what this team will do, but I have some clues.
They have a former 6th round pick named Brandon Allen who may have "ripened". Interim Head Coach Doug Marrone is getting his shot. This team has reasonable talent.
The Browns are rebuilding. The Jags are not. Marrone is lucky to be in a weak division, but unlucky to be in a weak division. He may not be able to afford drafting a not-ready-for primetime quarterback. He could be fired before a rookie is ready.
A Cutler or Taylor just might win him a Division title.
The Tennessee Titans are all set with Mariota, but the Jets at six need one, unless they think Geno Smith can still do it. This team might well prefer a veteran over a rookie too, for obvious reasons.
As I discussed first, the aforementioned veterans will be signed before the draft. Any team (except the Bowns) who signs any of these high-profile quarterbacks is unlikely to use their top pick on a quarterback in this particular draft.
If the Niners, Bearss, and Bills were to gobble up prominant veteran quarterbacks in free agency (the Bills may restructure Taylor), and the Jets at six did as well, it would become possible for the Browns to.........
TRADE DOWN and still get Trubisky or Watson. Yeah, that's right I said it, see? I'm on the road, so don't bother trying to find me. You'd never get me to the stake alive anyway. I'd take some of you with me too I swear it.
I can hear the weeping and gnashing of teeth already. "Myulls -sob-". The press conference held in a bank vault, National Guard escorting Sashi around what fun!
Anyway Tennessee might do that. They're a year ahead of the Browns, and on the cusp of contention. They also actually need an edge rusher, which the Browns obviously do NOT.
Myles Garrett could get the Titans into the post season. He could get the Kessler-led Browns to .500...maybe.
What is the most important position in football? What one thing do the Browns need more than anything else? Who is the Head Coach?
What could the Browns get, if the Titans wanted to dance?
Two second round picks, at least (one in 2018)...and, of course, their aspiring franchise quarterback.
This is just spitballing, though. It assumes a perfect scenario, and then a trade partner who is willing to pay a very high price. If Hue grades the two quarterbacks roughly equal, they could even move back further for a bigger haul.
John Buhler lists five free agents he feels the Browns should target this offseason.
His first target is Isaiah Crowell. Check.
The second is OLB Melvin Ingram. John cites an urgently desperate need (sigh) for passrushers, and doesn't care what position they play. In fact, he thinks they should get Ingram and Garrett both.
That would be great, since now Gregg Williams could bench Ogbah, Nassib, Orchard, Holmes, and Johnson (oh yeah and cut two of them).
Third is Pryor. Check.
Fourth is Guard Kevin Zietler from the Bengals, who is only 26. I'd love to see that: Bitonio and Zeitler flanking the center.
It would hurt a division rival, and also free Greco up to play center if required. This one move could give the Browns a terrific offensive line, instantly.
Next is cornerback Trumaine Johnson. Like ingram, he was drafted in 2012, so I'm guessing both players are 27 or younger. Trumaine was 6'2", 204 lbs when drafted, and is really good. He may also have free safety potential.
John didn't do too bad here, except on Ingram. Like everybody else, John has sent a bunch of young edge rushers straight from the nursery to a graveyard in Oblivia.
Ingram is 6'1" and has short arms. He truly is ideally a 3-4 OLB, more than a 4-3 defensive end. He's a terrific player, but John is full of beans about the dire desperately urgent sky is falling need for bushels of passrushers, as well as oblivious to the scheme Gregg Willliams will run: Four down linemen, often.
John, check out three technique defensive tackles instead.
It's starting to get deep here.
The guy goes to the NFL value chart, and says that 12 and a high fourth would make the real value 4th overall.
Hey COOL! This means the Browns can bundle 12 and a high fourth to move up to four and nab somebody right?
Garopollo was drafted way lower, and has barely even played. All he has done is run the scout team vs the starting defense for three seasons, mostly!
Anyway the Moneyball guys would never do this no matter what. Only trading down and piling up more draft picks is possible with this crew of geeks. (Again, Hue Jackson's opinion doesn't count. The author has saved him time here by doing all his scouting for him too!).
And this writer points out the myth that any quarterback mentored in New England is a stud, and lists Matt Cassel and Ryan Mallet. Case closed!
Far be it from me to contradict this conclusive verdict, but I must insist that Hue Jackson just might have something to say about it, despite all this guy's great advice. Mayock and Jim Miller have apparently fallen for it too! Better tip them off, Albert!
Seriously, nevermind.
In my last post I listed Romo, Taylor, and Garopollo as probable FA vets, and left out Jay Cutler. Thet was dumb of me. Jay Cutler is very talented, but has disappointed. He isn't washed up yet, and will come CHEAP, so he is very much in play for quarterback-needy teams against this weak quarterback draft crop.
Now, I haven't yet examined the various contenders in depth yet, including why the hell the Bears are assumed to hate Matt Barkley, but anyway:
As I've previously posted, Romo is a non-starter for any of the teams in the Browns way, but Jimmy G, Cutler, and Taylor are likely considerations. These three and Romo will be signed well ahead of the draft. I reluctantly must include the despicable moron Kaepernick here, since somebody will be dumb enough to sign him, too.
Anyway, three or maybe four of these guys will be signed by teams drafting in the top 11 well ahead of the draft.
Now then: I think that Chicago might well sign Brock Osweiler to compete with Rodney Barkleyfield and not draft a quarterback second overall. I expect the Texans to cut Osweiler loose. Update: No they should keep him nevermind.
The Shanahan-led Niners will try to grab Garopollo. They can't out-bid the Browns, but for the purposes of this excersize, let's just say the Browns do not get Jimmy G and the Niners do, perhaps for second round picks in 2017 and 2018.
What's left to the Jagwires is Taylor, Cutler, and Kaperdick. At this point, I have no idea what this team will do, but I have some clues.
They have a former 6th round pick named Brandon Allen who may have "ripened". Interim Head Coach Doug Marrone is getting his shot. This team has reasonable talent.
The Browns are rebuilding. The Jags are not. Marrone is lucky to be in a weak division, but unlucky to be in a weak division. He may not be able to afford drafting a not-ready-for primetime quarterback. He could be fired before a rookie is ready.
A Cutler or Taylor just might win him a Division title.
The Tennessee Titans are all set with Mariota, but the Jets at six need one, unless they think Geno Smith can still do it. This team might well prefer a veteran over a rookie too, for obvious reasons.
As I discussed first, the aforementioned veterans will be signed before the draft. Any team (except the Bowns) who signs any of these high-profile quarterbacks is unlikely to use their top pick on a quarterback in this particular draft.
If the Niners, Bearss, and Bills were to gobble up prominant veteran quarterbacks in free agency (the Bills may restructure Taylor), and the Jets at six did as well, it would become possible for the Browns to.........
TRADE DOWN and still get Trubisky or Watson. Yeah, that's right I said it, see? I'm on the road, so don't bother trying to find me. You'd never get me to the stake alive anyway. I'd take some of you with me too I swear it.
I can hear the weeping and gnashing of teeth already. "Myulls -sob-". The press conference held in a bank vault, National Guard escorting Sashi around what fun!
Anyway Tennessee might do that. They're a year ahead of the Browns, and on the cusp of contention. They also actually need an edge rusher, which the Browns obviously do NOT.
Myles Garrett could get the Titans into the post season. He could get the Kessler-led Browns to .500...maybe.
What is the most important position in football? What one thing do the Browns need more than anything else? Who is the Head Coach?
What could the Browns get, if the Titans wanted to dance?
Two second round picks, at least (one in 2018)...and, of course, their aspiring franchise quarterback.
This is just spitballing, though. It assumes a perfect scenario, and then a trade partner who is willing to pay a very high price. If Hue grades the two quarterbacks roughly equal, they could even move back further for a bigger haul.
John Buhler lists five free agents he feels the Browns should target this offseason.
His first target is Isaiah Crowell. Check.
The second is OLB Melvin Ingram. John cites an urgently desperate need (sigh) for passrushers, and doesn't care what position they play. In fact, he thinks they should get Ingram and Garrett both.
That would be great, since now Gregg Williams could bench Ogbah, Nassib, Orchard, Holmes, and Johnson (oh yeah and cut two of them).
Third is Pryor. Check.
Fourth is Guard Kevin Zietler from the Bengals, who is only 26. I'd love to see that: Bitonio and Zeitler flanking the center.
It would hurt a division rival, and also free Greco up to play center if required. This one move could give the Browns a terrific offensive line, instantly.
Next is cornerback Trumaine Johnson. Like ingram, he was drafted in 2012, so I'm guessing both players are 27 or younger. Trumaine was 6'2", 204 lbs when drafted, and is really good. He may also have free safety potential.
John didn't do too bad here, except on Ingram. Like everybody else, John has sent a bunch of young edge rushers straight from the nursery to a graveyard in Oblivia.
Ingram is 6'1" and has short arms. He truly is ideally a 3-4 OLB, more than a 4-3 defensive end. He's a terrific player, but John is full of beans about the dire desperately urgent sky is falling need for bushels of passrushers, as well as oblivious to the scheme Gregg Willliams will run: Four down linemen, often.
John, check out three technique defensive tackles instead.
It's starting to get deep here.
Saturday, February 11, 2017
Analyzing Browns Analysis
Finally an intelligent analysis of the Browns defensive line not written by my humble self! Justin Blum (Dawg Pound Daily) was almost perfect!
I only have a couple small corrections to make:
1: He's got Carl Nassib as a rotational defensive end, not a starter. Justin has the uncommon sense to project leaps forward for both Nassib and Ogbah, but doesn't seem to think Nassib can be a star.
Part of this is that Justin has Garrett pencilled in already as a new addition, so this isn't really a big mistake.
2: ...ok well I guess the Nassib thing was about it. Blum correctly gave Cooper one last shot, mentioning his outstanding first step quickness, put Meder behind Shelton oh yeah:
Justin projects Des Bryant as a defensive end for Gregg Williams, but he's more likely an under-tackle next to Shelton. Bryant doesn't have enough speed to rush consistently from the outside, but is a proven "three technique" disrupter.
However, as I've mentioned, age and salary may conspire to send Des away (sad but true). And Myles Garrett is NOT a lock, either.
Speaking of which, Terry Pluto just nudged me back towards Mitch Trubisky by comparing him to Carson Wentz (as some talent evaluators already have).
Wentz started 23 games to Trubisky's 13. Wentz ran a pro style offense, whereas Trubisky ran a shotgun spread. Trubisky played at a higher level of competition. Their statistics were nearly indentical, largely because Wentz's Bison ran the ball a lot more.
Terry didn't stress this: Wentz sat the bench until his junior season, just like Trubisky did, but he also took over a dynastic powerhouse. Trubisky's team was, relatively speaking, inferior.
Scouts and others are beginning to compare these two quarterbacks, for good reasons. As Terry points out, Carson Wentz has changed how teams evaluate quarterbacks.
Wentz' rookie starts weren't planned. In the real world, this should be the plan for any team drafting Mitch Trubisky, with his ten fewer starts in a shotgun spread. (I repeat: "Immediate impact" no longer applies to quarterbacks. The Eagles knew that. They gave up a ton to draft him second overall to sit him on the bench is any of this sinking in?)
Wentz declined as defenses got a bead on him, and finished ranked 24, but he showed a lot of promise in his rookie season, and Eagles coaches and management are happy with that.
Trubisky is now the consensus top quarterback, and this is unlikely to change as Watson no doubt impresses everybody at the combine. The big knock on Watson is his interceptions.
I think of local heavyweight Ernie Shavers: Mister You Go or I go. He knocked out almost everybody he fought, but I think all the ones he lost were by knockouts too. I know Watson is a very smart guy, and Hue could fix this, but I totally get the preference for the bigger, safer Trubisky.
...but I have to say this: Unlike Ernie Shavers, Deshaun Watson won the belt. Between Trubisky and Watson, I can't decide.
Several mock drafts have the Browns drafting Watson 12th overall. I can't believe he'll last that long. Certainly, Sashi Brown doesn't dare plan on it.
But back to Trubisky/Terry: My inner child wants Mitch Trubisky because he is a home boy and openly talks about wanting to play for the Browns. It's just my inner intelligence analyst that hesitates, and wonders if he's really better than Watson.
No way Terry Pluto wrote this article without considering Mitch Trubisky at first overall.
In a nutshell, the top five quarterbacks who will go to NFL teams this offseason are: Trubisky, Watson, Kizer, Garopollo, and Taylor. Tony Romo is a sixth, but nobody with any brains would cough up draft picks to take on that massive salary unless they are contending in 2017.
David Lee didn't pick Tyrod Taylor, by the way. He only coached him. His hiring on here is no indication whatsoever that Tyrod Taylor is better than Rodney Kesslerfield.
However, Tyrod is one of really five quarterbacks which quarterback-needy teams will compete for. Two teams will nab the two veterans prior to the draft as presumptive starters, which will change things.
In re Garopollo, I can't fathom why so many think that both second round picks would be preferable to #12 and a fourth. A lot of star players were second rounders, and two is better than one. Bill Belichick would PREFER two second rounders! If he settles for 12 and a fourth, he'll probably try to trade down to GET two second rounders!
Now, Justin Blum's take on the Browns linebackers was disappointing:
1: Joe Shobert is a better 4-3 than 3-4 outside linebacker, and can play inside in a 3-4.
2: Demario Davis is an established starter inside or in the middle. If Jamie Collins doesn't start at middle linebacker, Davis will. Just because he's not a superstar doesn't mean he can't start any more.
...Justin, how can you lump Shobert in with Holmes and Johnson? Wow!
I'll put this down as a brain-fart, but you're on probation now, see?
YOU STAND CORRECTED
I only have a couple small corrections to make:
1: He's got Carl Nassib as a rotational defensive end, not a starter. Justin has the uncommon sense to project leaps forward for both Nassib and Ogbah, but doesn't seem to think Nassib can be a star.
Part of this is that Justin has Garrett pencilled in already as a new addition, so this isn't really a big mistake.
2: ...ok well I guess the Nassib thing was about it. Blum correctly gave Cooper one last shot, mentioning his outstanding first step quickness, put Meder behind Shelton oh yeah:
Justin projects Des Bryant as a defensive end for Gregg Williams, but he's more likely an under-tackle next to Shelton. Bryant doesn't have enough speed to rush consistently from the outside, but is a proven "three technique" disrupter.
However, as I've mentioned, age and salary may conspire to send Des away (sad but true). And Myles Garrett is NOT a lock, either.
Speaking of which, Terry Pluto just nudged me back towards Mitch Trubisky by comparing him to Carson Wentz (as some talent evaluators already have).
Wentz started 23 games to Trubisky's 13. Wentz ran a pro style offense, whereas Trubisky ran a shotgun spread. Trubisky played at a higher level of competition. Their statistics were nearly indentical, largely because Wentz's Bison ran the ball a lot more.
Terry didn't stress this: Wentz sat the bench until his junior season, just like Trubisky did, but he also took over a dynastic powerhouse. Trubisky's team was, relatively speaking, inferior.
Scouts and others are beginning to compare these two quarterbacks, for good reasons. As Terry points out, Carson Wentz has changed how teams evaluate quarterbacks.
Wentz' rookie starts weren't planned. In the real world, this should be the plan for any team drafting Mitch Trubisky, with his ten fewer starts in a shotgun spread. (I repeat: "Immediate impact" no longer applies to quarterbacks. The Eagles knew that. They gave up a ton to draft him second overall to sit him on the bench is any of this sinking in?)
Wentz declined as defenses got a bead on him, and finished ranked 24, but he showed a lot of promise in his rookie season, and Eagles coaches and management are happy with that.
Trubisky is now the consensus top quarterback, and this is unlikely to change as Watson no doubt impresses everybody at the combine. The big knock on Watson is his interceptions.
I think of local heavyweight Ernie Shavers: Mister You Go or I go. He knocked out almost everybody he fought, but I think all the ones he lost were by knockouts too. I know Watson is a very smart guy, and Hue could fix this, but I totally get the preference for the bigger, safer Trubisky.
...but I have to say this: Unlike Ernie Shavers, Deshaun Watson won the belt. Between Trubisky and Watson, I can't decide.
Several mock drafts have the Browns drafting Watson 12th overall. I can't believe he'll last that long. Certainly, Sashi Brown doesn't dare plan on it.
But back to Trubisky/Terry: My inner child wants Mitch Trubisky because he is a home boy and openly talks about wanting to play for the Browns. It's just my inner intelligence analyst that hesitates, and wonders if he's really better than Watson.
No way Terry Pluto wrote this article without considering Mitch Trubisky at first overall.
In a nutshell, the top five quarterbacks who will go to NFL teams this offseason are: Trubisky, Watson, Kizer, Garopollo, and Taylor. Tony Romo is a sixth, but nobody with any brains would cough up draft picks to take on that massive salary unless they are contending in 2017.
David Lee didn't pick Tyrod Taylor, by the way. He only coached him. His hiring on here is no indication whatsoever that Tyrod Taylor is better than Rodney Kesslerfield.
However, Tyrod is one of really five quarterbacks which quarterback-needy teams will compete for. Two teams will nab the two veterans prior to the draft as presumptive starters, which will change things.
In re Garopollo, I can't fathom why so many think that both second round picks would be preferable to #12 and a fourth. A lot of star players were second rounders, and two is better than one. Bill Belichick would PREFER two second rounders! If he settles for 12 and a fourth, he'll probably try to trade down to GET two second rounders!
Now, Justin Blum's take on the Browns linebackers was disappointing:
1: Joe Shobert is a better 4-3 than 3-4 outside linebacker, and can play inside in a 3-4.
2: Demario Davis is an established starter inside or in the middle. If Jamie Collins doesn't start at middle linebacker, Davis will. Just because he's not a superstar doesn't mean he can't start any more.
...Justin, how can you lump Shobert in with Holmes and Johnson? Wow!
I'll put this down as a brain-fart, but you're on probation now, see?
YOU STAND CORRECTED
Friday, February 10, 2017
Cleveland Browns Punditary Corrections (Hip Waders on please)
I'm allergic to "whatever it takes" when it comes to signing free agents, but aside from that, this article by Ryan Rosco (Factory of Sadness) makes a lot of sense.
Well... he also identifies guard as a position of need, which is also wrong. Guard is solid, but I can't quibble with Ryan that a right guard who's in the same class as left guard Joel Bitonio would be very cool, especially since they could help mask the inevitable screwups of a probably inexperienced starting center, yet to be named.
For that matter, John Greco is a servicable center, but that's all. If he needs to play there again, it will be because the two young guys both flopped.
Greco is a very good guard, by the way, but he's over thirty now, and has seen his best days.
Ryan is one of those guys who doesn't think much about age. I hope the two elite guard candidates he mentioned aren't expected to be released because they're as old as Greco, because that would make this a dumb article.
A lot of these guys also ignore systems. It is absolutely NOT etched in stone that Hue Jackson's offensive line coach won't run zone schemes. Most of the best offensive linemen fit all schemes, but zone guys are more athletic and can be lighter and less powerful.
That brings up "whatever it takes". You don't pay ANYBODY too much, EVER. If you do, Joel Bitonio is next, saying that he should be payed more than the new guy, and soon you have made yourself a big mess.
If the 2017 Browns run a predominantly zone run blocking scheme, right guard becomes less important.
Indeed, the inside and outside zones are very frugal, because non-bulldozer offensive linemen cost less, and draft lower, than the bigger, stronger guys. It's possible to have a top five running game without one "name" offensive lineman. This is one of the reasons why teams like Seattle and Atlanta run it.
Even more than last season, this year's personnel favor zone. Joe Thomas is a superior athlete, both young centers are zone guys, Bitonio is fine either way, Greco was a top five guard under Kyle Shanahan (seviceable otherwise), and while Coleman is more a power/man type tackle, Erving is a better zone type.
Hue might be stubborn about this, but he should run a zone-heavy scheme.
Now here is the horrific article which I suspect inspired Ryan to write his pretty good one. I include the link because at least they gave Cody Kessler his props, which was refreshing.
This writer writes for Number Fire, a very cool analytics site, and cites in-depth numbers a lot to support his case. But he is untrained, and ignores a ton of relevant factors, plus rationalizes. You can't do that, ok?
This guy says that the Browns should rebuild the offensive line before they get a quarterback (you know pick one from the quarterback tree in the back yard?)
Cody Kessler ranked 7th among active quarterbacks without sacks, but 17th including sacks, per Number Fire. The writer concludes that Kessler didn't have enough time to throw.
...although, per Number Fire, Kessler also ranked very high in not getting rid of the damn ball. BUT, the writer points out, so did Griffin and McCown, which indicates a "systemic" failure uhhh...
Well, maybe the receivers had trouble getting open-I don't know, but it obviously had nothing to do with his protection. Holding the ball is a universal spinal reflex for all quarterbacks. They can't stand giving up on a play.
Most of them got away with it in college, so it's wired into them, and it's hard to coach back out of them in the pros, especially since the coaches themselves don't want them to give up too soon.
But it is up to the quarterback to avoid sacks. In many cases, blockers are assigned to defenders, and like Jim Miller says, the quarterback is responsible for one of them, meaning that if this guy comes, nobody will block him.
The quarterback must hit the hot read (the receiver must also see it and be where he's supposed to be). Or, he can avoid him and buy time. But he still has to throw it away to avoid the sack.
Sometimes, they reach him too fast, or he has no safe lanes, but 75% of the time, he can get rid of the damn ball or make it to the line of scrimmage.
For the Browns quarterbacks, more than half their sacks in 2016 were their own fault. You can't brush that aside with a big word (not even "systemic"). This is lazy analysis. Where I came from, it gets people killed. I'm glad this guy does football.
There's more. The writer never even mentions that both starting guards hit injured reserve, and center was a revolving door. If any one lineup started three consecutive games all season, I'd be surprised.
He wants the Browns to hammer offensive line as if Shon Coleman and Rango don't even exist, not to mention Cam Erving, who returns to his best position (tackle).
I've rarely seen an analysis this sloppy and shallow. The writer is a great statistician, but a lazy analyst. And in conclusion, the offensive line could be upgraded, but will be serviceable in 2017 as-is.
And I've got to say this again: Franchise quarterbacks don't grow in trees. If they did, the tree would be in the top ten area.
This Washington Post contributor Neil Greenburg says that maybe the Browns shouldn't address their quarterback this season at all. I saw the title and thought I'd have somebody else to pound to mush, but Neil, unlike the Number Fire guy, is a real analyst.
He points out the weak draft crop, historical statistics in re top five busts, Garopollo's limited history, and yes, Rodney Kesslerfield, who looks like at least a decent starter in only his second season.
My only problems with this article are the now-obligatory mention of the Browns many many needs (I estimate twenty two starters based on the coverage) early on, and this:
This writer seems to agree with most blockheads: He eliminates Watson and Kizer because they look like they'll need one or two years to develop. R E B U I L D I N G DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
He considers Trubisky ONLY because he may be able to start as a rookie, but correctly cites his lack of college experience (and game film). (Mike Mayock extolls Tubisky's virtues, but says he'd be "scared to death" to risk a high draft pick on him...or anybody else in this draft.)
But this was a great, well-researched and thought out article, and Neil Greenburg has a new fan. (I won't give up on the Number Fire guy either. I was pretty dumb myself before I enlisted).
Speaking of Number Fire, here is a great article on Terrelle Pryor as a wide receiver. Joe Redemann, who looks like anything BUT a geek, clarified for me who Terrelle really is:
Joe likens him to a Kelvin Benjamin with afterburners. Terrelle was just average in his combine 3-cone drills, and will probably never be explosive out of his cuts, which also describes Kelvin.
You can click to his article, but basicly he sounds like me in re TP's extant status as a number one wide receiver, and his almost infinite potential as he truly masters his new position.
Also, in referring to the Browns quarterbacks and offense. Julio Jones is all-planet now, but didn't he have Matt Ryan? How would Terrelle Pryor have done in THAT offense in 2016, in Julio's place? -snap-snap- is any of this sinking in yet?
After reading Josh McCown's comments on Jimmy Garopollo, I'm temporarily back on the Jimmy G express. Re-signing (not franchising) TP matters here, a LOT. This would tell Jimmy he will have a big-play (and clutch) weapon to throw to. It would also tell him that this regime isn't as incompetent as the previous ones were (see what the soft-spoken diplomat Joe Thomas said about letting young talent go).
Jimmy's model is the Patriots. Check out what they've done.
They turned smurf slot receivers into superstars. They let Wes Welker go (to obscurity) and replaced him with an oft-injured cheap journeyman (Amendola) and a converted quarterback (Edelman: Seventh Round) and never missed him.
They standardized two tight end offenses too, and all of this was ahead of the curve, and intended to compensate for perennially low draft picks (tight ends and smurfs were cheap, see?).
Jimmy will like Hue Jackson. Everybody does. I just wonder: Can he be like Belichick, and pioneer new things?
Think about it: Right now, defenses are signing and drafting players to solve microbe slot guys and two (real) tight ends.
Maybe, just maybe, Hue has already started "being Bill". Didn't they just draft Seth DeValve and FOUR big wide receivers? Only one slot smurf guy is left (kept over the better/younger guy because for vedderrunnn leaddershibb don't get me started).
Hue is unmistakably moving away from the Patriot model, so he's at least not a copycat, and at least an original thinker, which is very promising.
Hue had no smurf depth behind Andrew Hawkins (who might be traded or released soon). Based on the last draft, he's going to phase the smurfs out altogether. It appears that he wants only big, tall, physical wide receivers, and 3 and 4 wide sets; a spead offense.
That does resemble his historical MO, sorta, but so does everything else. He's always maxed out the talent he's had to work with; he was a coordinator and not a Head Coach with a voice in personnel decisions, you see? This is different, ok?
The Kessler pick was telling, as well. Kessler is best suited to a West Coast, timing, horizontal passing system, and so is each and every wide receiver (and DeValve) they drafted.
He insisted on one real lead-blocking fullback. I haven't figured all of this out yet (just started to now in fact), but generally speaking, defenses built to stop two tight ends and smurf slot guys are not built to stop four big wide receivers and running backs who can catch too.
Defenses all have "nickel cornerbacks", right? These are always little shrimps, and almost every defense has at least two microbe cornerbacks active, and keeps drafting them, right?
Well, what if the "slot receiver" is four or five inches too tall and 20 or so lbs too big? This is what I've heard called a "mismatch" (correct me I'm wrong).
What if, of your eight or so cornerbacks, only 3 or so are 5'11" or taller, and every single opposing wide receiver is 6'2" or taller? (Well except for Crow or Duke, but not except for Rodney Atkinsonfield).
I'm getting into the weeds here, but I can't stop without correcting a couple misconceptions:
A zone blocking scheme does not neccessarily exclude a blocking fullback, H-back, or two-back, unless you are a copycat blockhead utterly devoid of imagination.
Running back is absolutely NOT a need on this team. They might draft one, but only on a best available basis, if a trade-down deal can't be worked out. Ditto linebacker (unless he's a Williams hybrid).
YOU ALL STAND CORRECTED.
THIS JUST IN: Myles Garrett pleaded to Jerry Jones to trade up from 28 to first overall so they could draft him. Believe it or not, this in itself doesn't bother me a lot.
What bothers me is that he is mentally impaired. He thinks Gramps Romo should be part of the trade, and doesn't seem to understand that Dallas would need to gut two drafts to make that kind of move.
I don't want anybody that dumb on my team. Who's going to tie his shoes for him and fill out his forms? No time for that!
Well... he also identifies guard as a position of need, which is also wrong. Guard is solid, but I can't quibble with Ryan that a right guard who's in the same class as left guard Joel Bitonio would be very cool, especially since they could help mask the inevitable screwups of a probably inexperienced starting center, yet to be named.
For that matter, John Greco is a servicable center, but that's all. If he needs to play there again, it will be because the two young guys both flopped.
Greco is a very good guard, by the way, but he's over thirty now, and has seen his best days.
Ryan is one of those guys who doesn't think much about age. I hope the two elite guard candidates he mentioned aren't expected to be released because they're as old as Greco, because that would make this a dumb article.
A lot of these guys also ignore systems. It is absolutely NOT etched in stone that Hue Jackson's offensive line coach won't run zone schemes. Most of the best offensive linemen fit all schemes, but zone guys are more athletic and can be lighter and less powerful.
That brings up "whatever it takes". You don't pay ANYBODY too much, EVER. If you do, Joel Bitonio is next, saying that he should be payed more than the new guy, and soon you have made yourself a big mess.
If the 2017 Browns run a predominantly zone run blocking scheme, right guard becomes less important.
Indeed, the inside and outside zones are very frugal, because non-bulldozer offensive linemen cost less, and draft lower, than the bigger, stronger guys. It's possible to have a top five running game without one "name" offensive lineman. This is one of the reasons why teams like Seattle and Atlanta run it.
Even more than last season, this year's personnel favor zone. Joe Thomas is a superior athlete, both young centers are zone guys, Bitonio is fine either way, Greco was a top five guard under Kyle Shanahan (seviceable otherwise), and while Coleman is more a power/man type tackle, Erving is a better zone type.
Hue might be stubborn about this, but he should run a zone-heavy scheme.
Now here is the horrific article which I suspect inspired Ryan to write his pretty good one. I include the link because at least they gave Cody Kessler his props, which was refreshing.
This writer writes for Number Fire, a very cool analytics site, and cites in-depth numbers a lot to support his case. But he is untrained, and ignores a ton of relevant factors, plus rationalizes. You can't do that, ok?
This guy says that the Browns should rebuild the offensive line before they get a quarterback (you know pick one from the quarterback tree in the back yard?)
Cody Kessler ranked 7th among active quarterbacks without sacks, but 17th including sacks, per Number Fire. The writer concludes that Kessler didn't have enough time to throw.
...although, per Number Fire, Kessler also ranked very high in not getting rid of the damn ball. BUT, the writer points out, so did Griffin and McCown, which indicates a "systemic" failure uhhh...
Well, maybe the receivers had trouble getting open-I don't know, but it obviously had nothing to do with his protection. Holding the ball is a universal spinal reflex for all quarterbacks. They can't stand giving up on a play.
Most of them got away with it in college, so it's wired into them, and it's hard to coach back out of them in the pros, especially since the coaches themselves don't want them to give up too soon.
But it is up to the quarterback to avoid sacks. In many cases, blockers are assigned to defenders, and like Jim Miller says, the quarterback is responsible for one of them, meaning that if this guy comes, nobody will block him.
The quarterback must hit the hot read (the receiver must also see it and be where he's supposed to be). Or, he can avoid him and buy time. But he still has to throw it away to avoid the sack.
Sometimes, they reach him too fast, or he has no safe lanes, but 75% of the time, he can get rid of the damn ball or make it to the line of scrimmage.
For the Browns quarterbacks, more than half their sacks in 2016 were their own fault. You can't brush that aside with a big word (not even "systemic"). This is lazy analysis. Where I came from, it gets people killed. I'm glad this guy does football.
There's more. The writer never even mentions that both starting guards hit injured reserve, and center was a revolving door. If any one lineup started three consecutive games all season, I'd be surprised.
He wants the Browns to hammer offensive line as if Shon Coleman and Rango don't even exist, not to mention Cam Erving, who returns to his best position (tackle).
I've rarely seen an analysis this sloppy and shallow. The writer is a great statistician, but a lazy analyst. And in conclusion, the offensive line could be upgraded, but will be serviceable in 2017 as-is.
And I've got to say this again: Franchise quarterbacks don't grow in trees. If they did, the tree would be in the top ten area.
This Washington Post contributor Neil Greenburg says that maybe the Browns shouldn't address their quarterback this season at all. I saw the title and thought I'd have somebody else to pound to mush, but Neil, unlike the Number Fire guy, is a real analyst.
He points out the weak draft crop, historical statistics in re top five busts, Garopollo's limited history, and yes, Rodney Kesslerfield, who looks like at least a decent starter in only his second season.
My only problems with this article are the now-obligatory mention of the Browns many many needs (I estimate twenty two starters based on the coverage) early on, and this:
This writer seems to agree with most blockheads: He eliminates Watson and Kizer because they look like they'll need one or two years to develop. R E B U I L D I N G DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
He considers Trubisky ONLY because he may be able to start as a rookie, but correctly cites his lack of college experience (and game film). (Mike Mayock extolls Tubisky's virtues, but says he'd be "scared to death" to risk a high draft pick on him...or anybody else in this draft.)
But this was a great, well-researched and thought out article, and Neil Greenburg has a new fan. (I won't give up on the Number Fire guy either. I was pretty dumb myself before I enlisted).
Speaking of Number Fire, here is a great article on Terrelle Pryor as a wide receiver. Joe Redemann, who looks like anything BUT a geek, clarified for me who Terrelle really is:
Joe likens him to a Kelvin Benjamin with afterburners. Terrelle was just average in his combine 3-cone drills, and will probably never be explosive out of his cuts, which also describes Kelvin.
You can click to his article, but basicly he sounds like me in re TP's extant status as a number one wide receiver, and his almost infinite potential as he truly masters his new position.
Also, in referring to the Browns quarterbacks and offense. Julio Jones is all-planet now, but didn't he have Matt Ryan? How would Terrelle Pryor have done in THAT offense in 2016, in Julio's place? -snap-snap- is any of this sinking in yet?
After reading Josh McCown's comments on Jimmy Garopollo, I'm temporarily back on the Jimmy G express. Re-signing (not franchising) TP matters here, a LOT. This would tell Jimmy he will have a big-play (and clutch) weapon to throw to. It would also tell him that this regime isn't as incompetent as the previous ones were (see what the soft-spoken diplomat Joe Thomas said about letting young talent go).
Jimmy's model is the Patriots. Check out what they've done.
They turned smurf slot receivers into superstars. They let Wes Welker go (to obscurity) and replaced him with an oft-injured cheap journeyman (Amendola) and a converted quarterback (Edelman: Seventh Round) and never missed him.
They standardized two tight end offenses too, and all of this was ahead of the curve, and intended to compensate for perennially low draft picks (tight ends and smurfs were cheap, see?).
Jimmy will like Hue Jackson. Everybody does. I just wonder: Can he be like Belichick, and pioneer new things?
Think about it: Right now, defenses are signing and drafting players to solve microbe slot guys and two (real) tight ends.
Maybe, just maybe, Hue has already started "being Bill". Didn't they just draft Seth DeValve and FOUR big wide receivers? Only one slot smurf guy is left (kept over the better/younger guy because for vedderrunnn leaddershibb don't get me started).
Hue is unmistakably moving away from the Patriot model, so he's at least not a copycat, and at least an original thinker, which is very promising.
Hue had no smurf depth behind Andrew Hawkins (who might be traded or released soon). Based on the last draft, he's going to phase the smurfs out altogether. It appears that he wants only big, tall, physical wide receivers, and 3 and 4 wide sets; a spead offense.
That does resemble his historical MO, sorta, but so does everything else. He's always maxed out the talent he's had to work with; he was a coordinator and not a Head Coach with a voice in personnel decisions, you see? This is different, ok?
The Kessler pick was telling, as well. Kessler is best suited to a West Coast, timing, horizontal passing system, and so is each and every wide receiver (and DeValve) they drafted.
He insisted on one real lead-blocking fullback. I haven't figured all of this out yet (just started to now in fact), but generally speaking, defenses built to stop two tight ends and smurf slot guys are not built to stop four big wide receivers and running backs who can catch too.
Defenses all have "nickel cornerbacks", right? These are always little shrimps, and almost every defense has at least two microbe cornerbacks active, and keeps drafting them, right?
Well, what if the "slot receiver" is four or five inches too tall and 20 or so lbs too big? This is what I've heard called a "mismatch" (correct me I'm wrong).
What if, of your eight or so cornerbacks, only 3 or so are 5'11" or taller, and every single opposing wide receiver is 6'2" or taller? (Well except for Crow or Duke, but not except for Rodney Atkinsonfield).
I'm getting into the weeds here, but I can't stop without correcting a couple misconceptions:
A zone blocking scheme does not neccessarily exclude a blocking fullback, H-back, or two-back, unless you are a copycat blockhead utterly devoid of imagination.
Running back is absolutely NOT a need on this team. They might draft one, but only on a best available basis, if a trade-down deal can't be worked out. Ditto linebacker (unless he's a Williams hybrid).
YOU ALL STAND CORRECTED.
THIS JUST IN: Myles Garrett pleaded to Jerry Jones to trade up from 28 to first overall so they could draft him. Believe it or not, this in itself doesn't bother me a lot.
What bothers me is that he is mentally impaired. He thinks Gramps Romo should be part of the trade, and doesn't seem to understand that Dallas would need to gut two drafts to make that kind of move.
I don't want anybody that dumb on my team. Who's going to tie his shoes for him and fill out his forms? No time for that!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)