Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Browns Roster 31st?

Pro Football Focus ranked the current Browns roster as 31st in the NFL for several reasons.

The biggest reason was the fact that 26-30 of the current players have never played in the NFL.

There are other reasons:

1: Joe Haden played badly last season even when healthy.
2: Schwartze, Mack, Dansby, Gipson, and Benjamin dropped off the board.
3: RG3 didn't even play last season.

And more reasons:

I'm not an "insider", but I believe that the ratings of the holdover players were based on season long stats, and ignored trends (and coaching, and scheme).

Probably, Nate Orchard had "only three sacks", and never mind that these all came in the last quarter of his rookie season.

Isaiah Crowell averaged 3.8 yards per carry, and never mind that he averaged 5.2 after being allowed to run to the strong side.

Cam Erving was atrocious overall, but late in the season at right guard was serviceable.  Terrell Pryor was statistically terrible.

PFF doesn't project.  Hassan, Ogbah, Coleman, etc. do not exist for them.  How Hue Jackson and company will use them does not compute.  

I like PFF, but it needs to be considered in context.  Their rankings will start to change after game one of 2016, and become more accurate as the season progresses.

Considering the preponderance of rookies on this roster, it won't be as accurate as oh, I don't know...ME any time soon, because these are ascending players who won't have approached their potentials yet.

PFF doesn't rank talent.  It rates performance.  The PFF writer who used the word "talent" shouldn't have.  Talent is ability. 

The Browns roster, for the moment, ranks 31st based on NFL performance.

Don't worry about it.  More to follow.

Sunday, June 5, 2016

The Dumbest Browns Article I Have Ever Read

I'm sick of doing this for free.  Some idiot editor published this.  Maybe one of the idiots who I applied to write for.

You need to read this, and give me some credit.

Click here.

I rest my case.


Friday, June 3, 2016

What We DID Learn from OTAs

When real experts say that you can't tell much from practices in shorts and helmets, they're talking about linemen and running backs, mostly.  Casual fans tend to think it means everybody.

It doesn't.  Cornerbacks and receivers still have to cover or get open.  Press coverage still goes on here, because there's little real contact even in games.

This is why Justin Gilbert's improvement is no mirage.  And like Terrell Pryor, it will probably be more pronounced when the pads go on.

Yoda will sagely advise wisely that it's too soon we have a long blahblahblah, and for sure, Gilbert could backslide.

But so far, Gilbert is going to be a starter, and live up to his lofty draft status.

This would change everything for the defense, like Dixon and Minnifield did for Marty Scottenheimer.  

The two plays Gilbert made that get the most attention were vs Barnidge and Pryor.  That's probably not coincidental.  Left cornerback right cornerback who cares?  Gilbert matches up with the skyscrapers, and is likely to be used against them.

This is SO much better than yet still another 5'9" little dynamo impressing everybody covering little shrimps.

Please stop embarrassing yourselves talking about Gilbert at nickel back.  He's not built to cover microbes.

In Ray Horton's defense, he could play some "safety", but all that means is that he could cover the BIG slot or a tight end (kind of the same thing).  But most offenses have at least one big tall number one or two outside receiver, and this is where (if he doesn't backslide) he'll start.

Pryor's performance is not a mirage either.  First teamers are actually trying to actually cover him, and he is actually getting open and catching actual passes IT'S TRUE!  Honest!

Now HE won't backslide!  HE will only get better.

We don't know about the quarterbacks, running backs, linemen, or linebackers (except in coverage or catching passes) yet, but we have seen a legitimate glimpse of the receivers and secondary.  This was real.

Now what about Josh?  Well, I was kind of writing him off til Jim Brown stood up for him (kinda).

I don't know what they'll do if he is reinstated (and the fact that he went to rehab could do the trick).

But the thought of Gordon on one side, Pryor on the other, and Coleman between them is spine-chilling.

Jim Brown has spent most of his life trying to save at-risk young men from the hood.  He's no doubt been unable to pull some (or even a majority) of them off the road to no where, but he's certainly saved a lot of them.

And he's heard it all.  He probably knows a snow job from sincerity, and he's backing Gordon up with Hue and Jimmy.

The REAL risk is this: His roster spot.  Some player will have to go to make room for him.  That player is most likely the sixth or seventh wide receiver.

Analytically speaking, that's an automatic "Hell yes!".  

Pundits will start talking about sending messages and signals and all this happy horseshit, but the PLAYERS all get it.

If you're as good as Josh Gordon, you get a last chance.  If you're not, they'll probably cut you.  That's just reality.

Yeah right: I'm a third string tight end and get a second suspension for pot.  I get cut.  The team starts grumbling over a double standard yeah right.

They LIVE DARWIN, for crying out loud!  The best players get treated differently for good reasons.  What do you think this is, an orphanage?

...I was gone for awhile but I'm back now.  I hope Josh is reinstated and they keep him, because around week eight I want to see the scariest passing attack in the NFL.

Oh shut up, Yoda! Brandon WEEDON could kick ass with that crew!  Derrick Anderson did, with half of it.

The running game will be there, and this is one reason why.


Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Offensive Bold Browns Predictions

In selecting schemes and plays from his Bible-sized master playbook, Hue Jackson at this point is probably expecting RG3 to be his quarterback this season.

He'll have to confront and acknowledge Griffin's weaknesses and work around them.  There will be an evaluation process, as Hue won't rely on old films.  He'll want to see where Griffin is now, because he has almost certainly improved since his last start.

Thus far, RG3 was sometimes slow to read the field, and held the ball too long.  He may have improved, and if he hasn't, Hue might improve him.

As I've mentioned before, the draft and UFA signings said a lot about Hue's intentions here.  Not just the three wide receivers picked after Coleman, but the fact that the only tight end selected was an oversized wide receiver.

Announcing Robbydamus predicts.  I will now tell you all about the Browns offense and who will be the big contributors.

The starting offensive line, at least as of game one, should be guys you know, Erving, and (just guessing) a former Seahawk who's name I can't find on the damn roster and can't remember dammit.

Shon Coleman could sneak in there, but more likely will be under construction as a backup.  No rookies here.  Even Erving has respectable experience, albeit at other positions.

No crystal balls required for the top two running backs, although Terrell Watson could get short yardage work and be used as a blocker.  Dude is just brutal.

Barnidge sure, but DeValve will be used more than most expect (keep reading).

As of game one, wide receiver is the toughest to predict.  

In reality, Corey Coleman has a lot to learn.  In the Baylor offense, he ran three patterns.  That's it.  Learning the route tree won't be hard for him, and executing it properly is easy for this kind of athlete.  But reading coverage and making the correct adjustments is much, much harder.  He will screw up.  He won't be where he's supposed to be sometimes.  The quarterback will get blamed.  People will say "what was he looking at?"

The other three drafted receivers are way ahead of Coleman here/now.  Higgins, in particular, should hit the ground running.  His performance thus far had much to do with the release of Brian Hartline.

Terrell Pryor is also ahead of Coleman.  In fact, he may be ahead of everybody not named Hawkins or Higgins.

Oh here we go with the eye-rolling again.  Pryor was a quarterback, so he can read coverage and make the right moves DUUHHHH.  He's been working on his route tree all along, and his big issue was execution.  (How to fake.  Mask "tells".  Get off the press.  CHEAT, etc.)

Before I predict the wide receivers, I have to predict the scheme:

Lots of Baylor stuff.  As I've blogged too much already, this is Coleman's and RG3's bread and butter, and would be cake for Terrell Pryor (three routes, remember?)

As I also mentioned, Duke Johnson is quite capable of playing wide receiver in this scheme.  DeValve and Barnidge could line up outside here too!

So what's the base set?  A two-back.  A 21 or 22, doesn't matter much.  Barnidge and DeValve are just Supersized possession receivers in the Baylor anyway.

Why?  Well, as I've already blogged about (sorry regular readers), because even though a defense knows that the Browns are liable to line up spread out, they just plain can't go small nickel or dime when they see two running backs and one or two tight ends.

If they do, when the huddle breaks they'll face a conventional or two tight end set with two actual running backs.  They get overpowered.  And they can't press Duke Johnson out of the backfield.  And Crowell can stone any shrimp blitzer they send.

By the way Earnest Byner is working with the backs.  You know he'll want both of them to lead block.  Byner was a great lead blocker for Kevin Mack.  

In the Baylor formation, Coleman and Pryor are two of the receivers.  They're NEXT TO Barnidge, DeValve, Higgins, or Duke.

You can get in their face to press them (high risk in and of itself), but if you try to press all four, it's almost suicidal.  

This is tough to describe: Press coverage needs to "steer"a receiver right or left, since obviously he will eventually get by you see?  A good press corner will make sure the receiver has no choice but to escape to whichever side he has determined he should.

This is so that he can stick with him for at least a few steps, and force him to cut away from him see?  It's predetermined: The press corner funnels the receiver to the sidelines, or toward a linebacker or safety who is waiting for him.

Well, in the Baylor, the side-by-side receivers make it tough:

Take Coleman outside and Barnidge inside:  Coleman, Hue, and RG3 know that the corner will seek inside leverage to keep Corey outside and try to ride him toward the sideline.

So Coleman says "okay you win" and just runs around behind Barnidge for a steep slant across the middle, while Barnidge goes vertical against his linebacker or strong safety or whatever.

Now the cornerback is CHASING Coleman, see?  For that matter, Barnidge could go OUTSIDE.

This is all legal.  It's a pick except it's not.  Now use your imagination.  Mix and match.  Pryor/Duke.  Higgins/Pryor.  Coleman/Duke.  Put the big guy outside and the little guy inside.  Do you see it?

But of course, Pryor, DeValve, Barnidge can just power through press coverage and blow the defensive plot to hell anyway, and maybe knock the coverage guy on his butt too.

Most likely, defenses will be compelled to run off-man coverage.  Zone would be dangerous with all those big guys, or Coleman stopping to catch short ones.

Ah, but what about the run?  Well, first off, this spread scheme (see previous entries) opens up the edges of the box and keeps the center fielder back.  It renders inside blitzes too risky. It all but prohibits more than six defenders in the box (if you count a safety 12 yards deep as in the box...not really)

The Baylor is also GREAT for play-action, by the way.

So I hereby predict that Pryor, Coleman, and Higgins will catch lots of passes.  I don't care who starts.

I also predict a lot of zone-blocking.  This now looks obvious, as it suits the roster, projected starters, base set, and scheme.

I must mention here that Barnidge/DeValve can block well in space.  

I'm not sure about Andrew Hawkins.  I can't predict he'll be released, but I can tell you that Coleman, Pryor, and Johnson could be lethal in a conventional slot.  I love Hawk, but...

Crowell, now: Everybody seems to be projecting Duke Johnson as the lead back now.  You think Hue Jackson is running for office or something.

Crowell averaged 5.2 ypc in his last five games of 2015, which was in line with what he'd done as a Cleveland Brown prior to that season.

Regular readers, I'm sorry I have to repeat this: Better late than never, DeFellipo adjusted the blocking scheme and decided it was okay to run to the strong side.

Isaiah Crowell is a STUD, when used intelligently.  The only issue I've had with him is that he goes down too easily, but that can be corrected.

I mean, the guy listed Marshawn Lynch as his favorite guy before his upcoming non-draft.  I have a very strong feeling that Hue Jackson and Kirby will remind him of that, often and frequently.

I predict that Crowell will discover his inner Beast-Mode in 2016.

Now RG3: He will be asked to make two reads, then improvise.  He will be conditioned to throw the damn ball away, slide, run out of bounds...dammit...

But the biggest reason the Baylor-heavy offense can work here is him.  He can and will go deep as often as possible.  He has to be contained, so inside pressure (like run-blitzes) are high risk.

He is extremely accurate.

I hereby predict that in 2016 the Cleveland Browns offense will achieve at least mediocrity (even if Griffin is hurt).

As an excellent article I read but can't find right now points out, they'll be vulnerable to elite 4-3 fronts (including the damn Bengals), and the team is stuck in this division.

So I'm not predicting wins and losses (except maybe sweeping the perennially overrated Ravens).

I'm just predicting that Terrelle Pryor will emerge as an elite outside non-gimmick receiver, Isaiah Crowell will be a top twelve running back, the Browns running game will rank in the top 13 or so, the offense in general will rank in the top half, Corey Coleman will kick ass (I forgot: He'll be in the conventional slot a lot), Higgins will do great, and you guys will stop confusing these guys with those guys and begin to hope.






Veteran Days Off: Common Sense.

1: Giving Joe Thomas or any older veteran days off is common sense.  The "leadership" stuff coming from even former players is irrational, and maybe even juvenile.

If you're smart enough to use three-syllable words, you're smart enough to understand that those old knee joints and that old spine don't need to take unnecessary wear and tear because you are jealous.

You want to take a year off Joe's career.  You want to prevent his backups from getting reps which he needs like a hole in the head.  You define "leadership" as a Hall of Famer suffering next to you even though it's just plain stupid.

Even though it increases the likelihood that he'll be injured and lost to you AND that the guy who replaces him won't be ready.

Thank God the players on this team aren't like you.

Any football player who has proven himself, and obviously doesn't need to learn or refine anything, should have days off to preserve his health and prolong his career.

Second and third string guys who are learning and do need refinement should take those reps.  This is obvious.  Think with your brain.  I'm glad Hue Jackson uses his.

2: In a slow news week, there's a whole lot of redundant re-reporting about the Browns plans to rely on a strong running game.

This seemed a pretty obvious strategy to me since the middle of last season or so.  But as the articles point out, this is how Hue Jackson rolls anyway.

Several weeks ago, before the draft, Hue Jackson was asked how to turn a quarterback into a franchise quarterback.  To paraphrase Hue's answer: "Establish a strong running game.  Build a strong defense.  Get him reliable receivers.  Protect him."

All quite valid answers, and don't think for a minute he was kidding.

Hue Jackson had a great deal to do with how the Browns Draft was conducted.  Hue was all-in with building up the team around the quarterback, even though it meant passing up Carson Wentz (and Paxton Lynch).

3: The ingredients of a strong running game are here, including the offensive linemen.

Why are you rolling your eyes?  Run-blocking is much easier for an offensive lineman than pass-protection.

It's much easier to turn any given five starters into good run-blockers than pass-protectors.

Pat Kirwan can tell you, it requires a commitment by the coaches, more than anything else.  THIS is the hard part, because the reps spent on running take away from the reps spent practicing pass protection.

A mentality and attitude has to be established.  It's not fancy--even in a zone scheme.  It's about winning personal battles in the trenches.  Confidence.  Determination.  Anger.  Attitude.

But what about pass protection, you axe.  Good point.  Read my next entry.






Saturday, May 28, 2016

Browns Blocking and Logic

When Hue Jackson was hired, the punditry leaped to the conclusion that since he ran a power-blocking scheme in Cincinnati, he would do the same here.

Regardless of his personnel.

I doubted this, since from everything I'd heard about Hue, he has a cerebral cortex.

Also, he hired Kirby Wilson, who most recently ran a lot of zone (especially outside).

The retention of Joe Thomas, the necessary elevation of Cam Erving, two former Seattle Seahawks contending at right tackle, Greco and Bitonio, and drafting Shon Coleman all indicate at least a strong zone element to this run-blocking scheme (see how I analyticalizationalized that?)

Zone sounds complicated, but is actually much simpler than man.  This is very helpful to a rookie center, and a potential rookie right tackle.

It's also very helpful to an offensive line with two new additions, regardless of position.  While pass blocking can still get confusing, run-blocking is pre-programmed, regardless of what the defense does.

Also notable was the fact that no true fullback was drafted.  One real blocking tight end (Holtz) was signed as an undrafted free agent.

Remember, in 2014, the Browns (mainly Rodney Crowellfield) had a good running game running Kyle Shanahan's inside zone blocking scheme.

Bitonio and Greco ranked among the very best guards in the NFL.  Mitchell Schwartze, on the other hand, went from average in 2014 to elite in 2015 after DeFellipo altered the scheme...And isn't that interesting?

By the way, you can't be a zone running back without what they call "vision".  Isaiah Crowell excelled in this system partly because of his vision.

In a man scheme, one or two alleged holes are allegedly created in pre-designated gaps, and the back must hit them as fast as possible.

If the hole isn't THERE, he ends up running into his linemen's backs unless he has room to get outside, because...well, is he supposed to run backwards and all the way across the field?  Throw a pass?  What's he supposed to do huh?

He hits his own lineman and hopes the extra boost will help the blocker dig out the guy who's stood him up so he can get a yard or so before he's swarmed under.

In an inside zone, the running back goes shopping.  He doesn't know where his daylight will be.  He only knows which side of the field it's supposed to be on.

He relies on (wait for it...)  VISION.

Crowell has it.  He's a good zone back.  Duke Johnson is perfect for this as well; probably more dangerous than Crowell, because he's more explosive out of his cuts and can constantly threaten the edge.

People say Duke can't run inside.  That's an assumption, and is ridiculous. Many, many shorter, smaller running backs were great inside runners.  Emmitt Smith is the most famous.  Maurice Jones Drew is more recent.

Duke is strong for his size, harder to see, and uses his leverage.  He has a terrific stiff-arm and is surprisingly hard to take down (or get a clean shot at).

Still, he'd be much better off doing it in a zone scheme, where that one sudden cut and dash is built in, and the defenders can't plant and anchor.

Athletic tight ends can be effective blockers in space in a zone scheme too.  They are coverage linebacker and safety magnets, and are always in position to reach that guy in space.

Nick Dudukovich (Factory of Sadness) wrote a good article on the "old guard" vs analytics in judging the Browns off season.

I can respect the old guard and get their skepticism, but I can't fathom how they could give the Browns a "D".

Nick was a little off on Bill Polian, however.  I heard what Bill said and says about the Browns.

Polian likes the signing of RG3, calling him "salvageable".  Like most real experts, he stipulates that he's not a pocket passer, but that he expects Hue Jackson to know how to make the most of him.

As Nick says, Bill said he didn't know what the Browns would look like in game one, but that's literally all he meant.

He doesn't know how well Erving will play, who will start across from Corey Coleman, whether Haden will be back, who the other cornerback will be, who will play right tackle, etc.

Polian is dubious about analytics, but is keeping his mental door open.

This dumbass Browns Freak is embarrassing us on NFL Radio as I write, and got Zig Fercosi excited about Brian Hartline.

Zig doesn't get why he was released, since he is a rock solid possession guy, and none of the young guys has proven anything yet.

Zig, the young guys will get better faster if they get more practice reps.  The Browns won't contend in 2016, and Hartline will turn 31 during the 2017 season.

In addition to Higgins and Payton, two big tall undrafted free agent possession guys were signed, and Devalve can do much of what Hartline did, whatever you want to call him.

No, none of them has proven anything yet, but if you think all five will crap out, you're out of your mind.

Try not to over think this.


Friday, May 27, 2016

Browns Showing Uncommon Sense For a Change

Hue Jackson having KMack invite all the alumni (notably Bernie Kosar) to camp was a refreshing change.  I'd call it "smart", but it's really more about common sense.  Duh.

Earnest Byner coaching the running backs?  Oh HELL yes!  That guy was everyman.  He wasn't big, or even fast---yet some how, some way, he just sort of found a way.  Over and over and over again.

Imagine what Earnest would have done with the physical gifts of a Crowell or Johnson.  Can you think of a better guy to coax the last drop of performance out of their potentials?

Even including Josh McCown, who could be a better advisor for young quarterbacks than Kosar?  He might even have given Hue Jackson a new idea or two, for that matter!

Don't you just know Greg Pruitt had a thing or two to offer Duke Johnson?

Hue Jackson just keeps impressing me.  Conversely, he can't help showing up every previous regime.  Why the hell did most of his predecessors make all these guys feel unwelcome?  

Well...Hue rightfully gets all the credit, but the front office rates a hat-tip here.  This is one thing they could have stepped on; Hue doesn't have authority here.

Somebody gave the Browns off season a "D".  They didn't do their homework.  I won't grade them.  I'm sending them to summer school.

I know that three of the guys they lost were really good players, but to hear some of these guys talk, you'd think there were twice as many, in their primes, and all future Hall of Famers.

Speaking of which, the first and foremost alum who needs to hang out around here is Clay Matthews.

That guy sitting around shooting the bull with Ogbah, Mingo (maybe Mongo now😉), Orchard and company is almost scary.

Matthews should be in the Hall.  Compare his stats to Lawrence Taylor's some time.  But he was just a Brown.  Hey Clay!  Don't be a stranger ok?  Come see your nephew!