Earlier I wrote about trading up to nail down Jared Goff, and I still think he's the best prospect for the Browns.
But Carson Wentz is still around. Everybody will know a lot more about the kid after the Senior Bowl, but today I found out that I was basing my opinions on half-assed or downright crappy scouting reports.
I was ignoring most of the hype on Wentz until I heard Mike Mayock saying some great things about him, and listing him above Paxton Lynch.
Wentz has a lot going against him, starting with the fact that he played against the Little Sisters of the Poor. This is a sore spot with me, since quarterbacks who play against weak defenses also play in weak offenses. Truly, it's a plus if the quarterback has faced tougher competition, but it's overstated. He will still get pressured when his offensive line fails, his receivers will still not get open or drop passes, and he still has to throw with accuracy, touch, and anticipation. A good pass is a good pass.
He has very few starts. That does mean a lot. Wentz has about 1.5 seasons under his belt. He's a fifth year Senior, but didn't start until 2014, and lost a big chunk of 2015 with a wrist injury. The combination of his inexperience and level of competition probably mean a year (or more) in the incubator as a pro. (Maybe not that long, if you have a strong running game, Joe Thomas, and Gordon/Benjamin/Barnidge.)
CBS Sports described Wentz's college offense as "wide open", which is misleading. He ran a Pro Style offense with multiple reads, and changed plays at the line of scrimmage. A lot of the time he had one tight end and two or three wide receivers, and he split time between under center and the shotgun. The majority of his throws were short and intermediate.
So he already has experience in progressing to second, third, and maybe fourth reads (thanks CBS Sports you had me thinking he ran a freaking shotgun spread!).
Negatives have him locking onto receivers, not using his eyes to fool defenders, itchy feet in the pocket, fumbling too often, inconsistent deep accuracy. Per CBS, he has improved with anticipation (timing throws) but still needs work.
Wentz is highly intelligent, with great retention. Brain wise, he could be smarter than Goff, but that's not necessarily going to apply on the football field. Still, I now know that the scouts have tape to look at, and will be able to make some educated guesses about that.
The Senior Bowl will pit him with and against pro calibre talent, under pro coaching, in pro systems. Knowing what I know now, this week has a lot more meaning for Wentz and the teams who are considering him.
A strong performance here could water down the bidding war for the first overall pick. For the Browns in particular, it could even make him a viable consolation prize.
He is bigger and more athletic than Goff. He's been called a "souped up" Alex Smith (Alex is a brainy guy too). This might turn a lot of fans off, but not me. Wentz has a stronger arm, and doesn't mind deep throws. All the comparison means is that he's not reckless or dumb; not that he's a system-specific game manager. People need to get their heads out of boxes and stop assuming.
In other news, I can't keep beating the Josh Gordon drum here, but read this. Somebody agrees.
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Cleveland Browns Current Passrushers and Ray Horton
Barkevious Mingo was a rookie the last time Ray Horton was here. He got five sacks early, then just sort of stopped.
I went back to Pro Football Focus's overview of that rookie season to see what they said about it.
In a nutshell, he rated below average in every category. As PFF notes, he was playing linebacker for the first time, and the coverage portion of that was fairly predictable.
What surprised me was that they said that he was effective in setting the edge (and was as a DE in college) and vs the run when he played with discipline. PFF felt that most of his errors were mental, and therefore correctable.
Rather than engage the blocker to the outside, he attacked inside. In coverage, he vacated his zone too early. They summed it up as aggressiveness and lack of awareness.
As a passrusher, he only graded positive in 5 of 15 games. PFF's final opinion of his rookie season was that he showed tremendous potential not only as a passrusher, but as an all-around outside linebacker.
So what tf happened since then? Well, I do know that Mike Pettine didn't use Mingo the same way. He wasn't on the field as often, and when he was he, like Paul Kruger, covered a lot.
This would alarm me, since as a defensive coordinator in Buffalo, Mike lobbied for Mingo in the draft. But then he had Kruger and the other outside linebackers in coverage a lot too. My theory here is that Mike was different than most 3-4 guys, and used his outside linebackers only slightly more often than inside linebackers and safeties as blitzers. Also, he didn't like to send a fifth passrusher except in obvious pass situations, which of course didn't happen much.
If Ray Horton had stayed, Mingo might have showed more improvement, and as it was, Mike Pettine the chessmaster probably had him overthinking.
It's hard to predict how Mingo will do this season under Ray Horton, and in a simpler, more aggressive defense. We can hope.
Nate Orchard was a steal. He really came on strong at the end of his rookie season, and his needle is definitely pointing up. At this point, he is ahead of Mingo, and a better bet to make a big jump heading into his second season. Orchard made the move to outside linebacker smoothly, and after some early hiccups, played pretty well vs the run and in coverage as well.
Analytics notes the timeline here: Mingo started out hot, then cooled off. Orchard made steady progress (with some flashes), and emerged at the end of his first season.
Nate Orchard doesn't have Von Miller's speed, but could be like DeMarcus Ware in 2016.
Paul Kruger wasn't shy about his frustration with how he was used by Mike Pettine in 2015. He had twelve sacks in 2014. He hasn't gone over the hill, and under Horton might do that again.
Part of the problem was also the rest of the defense. Joe Haden was ineffective even before he went on IR. Gipson went down (again). Poyer was starting at cornerback, and most of the cornerbacks were tiny, and overmatched by taller receivers. Offenses ran a lot, and when they passed, got rid of the ball sooner (to their mismatched tall receivers). There were also numerous breakdowns in coverage, and more zone coverage...often involving Kruger himself.
Also, Ray Horton likes 3-4 personnel, but really runs a 4-3 under. Two interior linemen line up over the weak side b gap (lg/lt) and strong side a gap (c/rg), so there's not really a nose tackle, and both of them attack. A third big guy is on the right tackle's nose, often shaded outside.
Ray moves the "outside" linebackers around (sometimes inside) to add pressure, and blitzes from the inside more.
He doesn't rely exclusively on outside pressure in the way a lot of 3-4s do, but does have the outside linebackers attacking more often than not from various angles.
The resemblance to a 4-3 under with 3-4 personnel is why it's called a hybrid defense. It's foundation is two big guys rushing, and the two big linebackers (and often an inside linebacker) move around to augment this with more speed.
This is much different than Pettine's system, and favors especially Xavier Cooper (explosive penetrator), Des Bryant (inside penetrator) and Danny Shelton (I know it's a surprise, but he's quick enough to split double teams and make a mess).
In general, pressure isn't as dependant on the outside linebackers as some fronts are. For Ray, it's more like four or five guys.
I don't believe Paul Kruger is as good as Nate Orchard can be, but can be a double-digit sack guy again.
Armonty Bryant took Adderol (yawn) but has looked pretty good. He may be faster than everybody except Mingo, and definitely has a shot to accomplish something in 2016.
He was true defensive end as a rookie in 2013, and used mainly as a situational passrusher. Mike Pettine converted him to linebacker in 2014. Originally a seventh round pick, he was raw and unrefined even as a 4-3 defensive end.
He has made steady progress and gained more playing time gradually. Entering his third season at his new position, Ray Horton will see a lot of potential in him.
Scott Solomon is a big lunchpail linebacker who can blitze. He has decent but not great speed, but is strong and uses leverage exceptionally well. He burst into the scene late in 2014 with multiple sacks and splash play, but spent the 2015 season on IR.
His 2014 outburst was too brief to etch in stone as representative of what he actually is, but he's another guy with potential.
Solomon could have the highest "floor" of any of these guys, because he's a true linebacker who can set the edge and stop the run as well as blitze. He has great instincts and a nose for the ball.
Ranked in order of passrushing most to least likely sackmasters, it's probably Orchard, Kruger, Bryant, Mingo, and Solomon.
Horton learned from Dick LeBeau. Although he's not a LeBeau clone, many of his principles can be found in Ray's defense. Leaving the zone blitze aside, Ray Horton will "send" one outside linebacker on most downs to fill out a four-man rush.
When Horton talks about big guys who can run, he means guys like those five I just listed. When he talks about little guys who can hit, he means the secondary, and sometimes coverage linebackers.
Ray is even more aggressive than LeBeau, which makes his defense more vulnerable to blitze-burns, chunk-runs, and big pass plays when the blitze is slowed. This is especially true when he drops a defensive end into a zone and sends one or two guys who would otherwise cover and pursue.
The cornerbacks and safeties have to be fast closers, hard hitters, and sure tacklers. Ray knows that some short and intermediate passes will inevitability be caught, and it's vital to stop these receivers before they can proceed, or to jar the ball loose. They must also close quickly on ballcarriers.
Horton's arrival could mean another season for Old Man Whitner, more zone with Desir on the field, Desir tried at safety, and more opportunities for Gilbert.
While the outside linebackers are the main edge-rushers, literally everybody else will blitze as well. The object is to keep the offense guessing.
As Ray Horton said himself, he uses all sorts of different fronts, but the base defense is a 3-4, and the outside linebackers are featured. They can grow the front to four or five, whether standing up or on the ground.
But three and four wide receiver sets are far more common today, rendering any base defense uncommon.
The Denver Broncos had a great luxury in Von Miller, who remained on the field throughout, because he's about as good in coverage as he is mugging quarterbacks. This allowed them to keep Ware in as well, even though the Patriots knew full well that he would be coming after Brady.
Even if Horton can find a scary pass rush from among these players, he doesn't have a player like Miller. The closest thing he has to Miller is (please stifle yourself) Barkevious Mingo if he can re-establish himself as a passrusher.
Barring that, he'll need to pull one or two linebackers or linemen off the field on most downs in favor of coverage.
Ray is fortunate here to have Chris Kirksey, who covers well, this time around, and maybe Craig Roberts, who has improved a lot in that area. Dansby, if he remains, can still do that as well, but at his age will have to come off the field to rest anyway. Danny Shelton is a tub, and anybody who thought he'd ever be on the field for over 60% of the snaps was delusional.
Other than Mingo, if any two outside linebackers remain on the field vs 3 or 4-wr sets, they'll be undisguised outside passrushers. (Ok well there must be some curveballs, so they'll drop occasionally, but unlike Mike, Ray doesn't get that cute that often).
This season, I saw what looked like a four man rush in nickels turn out to be three guys too often, as Boris Spaske seemed to think he could befuddle the quarterback over and over again with the old Kruger/Orchard in coverage trick. Five offensive linemen on three passrushers.
Man, it's smart not to always be predictable, but there is such a thing as overdoing it. Ray won't overdo it, and whoever is playing outside linebacker will blitze more consistently and often. This will help.
The passrusher situation for the Browns is a little like the wide receiver situation. Everybody thinks they still need a big-time quarterback smasher, but they might be okay.
The people are here, now, to put Kruger back on the weak side, where he got most of his sacks in 2014. All of them will be in coverage less, and blitzing more. Everybody will know his role and play more, think less.
If I counted right, this is where the Titans got their sacks in 2015: OLB: 14 DL: 13.5 ILB: 9 S: 2.5. A defensive end and an outside linebacker had seven sacks each.
To be clear: I did not just guarantee fifty sacks. I didn't even make a prediction. I said "should" and "might" a lot, and "will" only a little. I didn't nominate Barkevious Mingo for the Pro Bowl, or Ray Horton for the Hall of Fame.
It's just that the Browns should get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks next season, regardless of what they do in the draft.
Put down the shovel.
I went back to Pro Football Focus's overview of that rookie season to see what they said about it.
In a nutshell, he rated below average in every category. As PFF notes, he was playing linebacker for the first time, and the coverage portion of that was fairly predictable.
What surprised me was that they said that he was effective in setting the edge (and was as a DE in college) and vs the run when he played with discipline. PFF felt that most of his errors were mental, and therefore correctable.
Rather than engage the blocker to the outside, he attacked inside. In coverage, he vacated his zone too early. They summed it up as aggressiveness and lack of awareness.
As a passrusher, he only graded positive in 5 of 15 games. PFF's final opinion of his rookie season was that he showed tremendous potential not only as a passrusher, but as an all-around outside linebacker.
So what tf happened since then? Well, I do know that Mike Pettine didn't use Mingo the same way. He wasn't on the field as often, and when he was he, like Paul Kruger, covered a lot.
This would alarm me, since as a defensive coordinator in Buffalo, Mike lobbied for Mingo in the draft. But then he had Kruger and the other outside linebackers in coverage a lot too. My theory here is that Mike was different than most 3-4 guys, and used his outside linebackers only slightly more often than inside linebackers and safeties as blitzers. Also, he didn't like to send a fifth passrusher except in obvious pass situations, which of course didn't happen much.
If Ray Horton had stayed, Mingo might have showed more improvement, and as it was, Mike Pettine the chessmaster probably had him overthinking.
It's hard to predict how Mingo will do this season under Ray Horton, and in a simpler, more aggressive defense. We can hope.
Nate Orchard was a steal. He really came on strong at the end of his rookie season, and his needle is definitely pointing up. At this point, he is ahead of Mingo, and a better bet to make a big jump heading into his second season. Orchard made the move to outside linebacker smoothly, and after some early hiccups, played pretty well vs the run and in coverage as well.
Analytics notes the timeline here: Mingo started out hot, then cooled off. Orchard made steady progress (with some flashes), and emerged at the end of his first season.
Nate Orchard doesn't have Von Miller's speed, but could be like DeMarcus Ware in 2016.
Paul Kruger wasn't shy about his frustration with how he was used by Mike Pettine in 2015. He had twelve sacks in 2014. He hasn't gone over the hill, and under Horton might do that again.
Part of the problem was also the rest of the defense. Joe Haden was ineffective even before he went on IR. Gipson went down (again). Poyer was starting at cornerback, and most of the cornerbacks were tiny, and overmatched by taller receivers. Offenses ran a lot, and when they passed, got rid of the ball sooner (to their mismatched tall receivers). There were also numerous breakdowns in coverage, and more zone coverage...often involving Kruger himself.
Also, Ray Horton likes 3-4 personnel, but really runs a 4-3 under. Two interior linemen line up over the weak side b gap (lg/lt) and strong side a gap (c/rg), so there's not really a nose tackle, and both of them attack. A third big guy is on the right tackle's nose, often shaded outside.
Ray moves the "outside" linebackers around (sometimes inside) to add pressure, and blitzes from the inside more.
He doesn't rely exclusively on outside pressure in the way a lot of 3-4s do, but does have the outside linebackers attacking more often than not from various angles.
The resemblance to a 4-3 under with 3-4 personnel is why it's called a hybrid defense. It's foundation is two big guys rushing, and the two big linebackers (and often an inside linebacker) move around to augment this with more speed.
This is much different than Pettine's system, and favors especially Xavier Cooper (explosive penetrator), Des Bryant (inside penetrator) and Danny Shelton (I know it's a surprise, but he's quick enough to split double teams and make a mess).
In general, pressure isn't as dependant on the outside linebackers as some fronts are. For Ray, it's more like four or five guys.
I don't believe Paul Kruger is as good as Nate Orchard can be, but can be a double-digit sack guy again.
Armonty Bryant took Adderol (yawn) but has looked pretty good. He may be faster than everybody except Mingo, and definitely has a shot to accomplish something in 2016.
He was true defensive end as a rookie in 2013, and used mainly as a situational passrusher. Mike Pettine converted him to linebacker in 2014. Originally a seventh round pick, he was raw and unrefined even as a 4-3 defensive end.
He has made steady progress and gained more playing time gradually. Entering his third season at his new position, Ray Horton will see a lot of potential in him.
Scott Solomon is a big lunchpail linebacker who can blitze. He has decent but not great speed, but is strong and uses leverage exceptionally well. He burst into the scene late in 2014 with multiple sacks and splash play, but spent the 2015 season on IR.
His 2014 outburst was too brief to etch in stone as representative of what he actually is, but he's another guy with potential.
Solomon could have the highest "floor" of any of these guys, because he's a true linebacker who can set the edge and stop the run as well as blitze. He has great instincts and a nose for the ball.
Ranked in order of passrushing most to least likely sackmasters, it's probably Orchard, Kruger, Bryant, Mingo, and Solomon.
Horton learned from Dick LeBeau. Although he's not a LeBeau clone, many of his principles can be found in Ray's defense. Leaving the zone blitze aside, Ray Horton will "send" one outside linebacker on most downs to fill out a four-man rush.
When Horton talks about big guys who can run, he means guys like those five I just listed. When he talks about little guys who can hit, he means the secondary, and sometimes coverage linebackers.
Ray is even more aggressive than LeBeau, which makes his defense more vulnerable to blitze-burns, chunk-runs, and big pass plays when the blitze is slowed. This is especially true when he drops a defensive end into a zone and sends one or two guys who would otherwise cover and pursue.
The cornerbacks and safeties have to be fast closers, hard hitters, and sure tacklers. Ray knows that some short and intermediate passes will inevitability be caught, and it's vital to stop these receivers before they can proceed, or to jar the ball loose. They must also close quickly on ballcarriers.
Horton's arrival could mean another season for Old Man Whitner, more zone with Desir on the field, Desir tried at safety, and more opportunities for Gilbert.
While the outside linebackers are the main edge-rushers, literally everybody else will blitze as well. The object is to keep the offense guessing.
As Ray Horton said himself, he uses all sorts of different fronts, but the base defense is a 3-4, and the outside linebackers are featured. They can grow the front to four or five, whether standing up or on the ground.
But three and four wide receiver sets are far more common today, rendering any base defense uncommon.
The Denver Broncos had a great luxury in Von Miller, who remained on the field throughout, because he's about as good in coverage as he is mugging quarterbacks. This allowed them to keep Ware in as well, even though the Patriots knew full well that he would be coming after Brady.
Even if Horton can find a scary pass rush from among these players, he doesn't have a player like Miller. The closest thing he has to Miller is (please stifle yourself) Barkevious Mingo if he can re-establish himself as a passrusher.
Barring that, he'll need to pull one or two linebackers or linemen off the field on most downs in favor of coverage.
Ray is fortunate here to have Chris Kirksey, who covers well, this time around, and maybe Craig Roberts, who has improved a lot in that area. Dansby, if he remains, can still do that as well, but at his age will have to come off the field to rest anyway. Danny Shelton is a tub, and anybody who thought he'd ever be on the field for over 60% of the snaps was delusional.
Other than Mingo, if any two outside linebackers remain on the field vs 3 or 4-wr sets, they'll be undisguised outside passrushers. (Ok well there must be some curveballs, so they'll drop occasionally, but unlike Mike, Ray doesn't get that cute that often).
This season, I saw what looked like a four man rush in nickels turn out to be three guys too often, as Boris Spaske seemed to think he could befuddle the quarterback over and over again with the old Kruger/Orchard in coverage trick. Five offensive linemen on three passrushers.
Man, it's smart not to always be predictable, but there is such a thing as overdoing it. Ray won't overdo it, and whoever is playing outside linebacker will blitze more consistently and often. This will help.
The passrusher situation for the Browns is a little like the wide receiver situation. Everybody thinks they still need a big-time quarterback smasher, but they might be okay.
The people are here, now, to put Kruger back on the weak side, where he got most of his sacks in 2014. All of them will be in coverage less, and blitzing more. Everybody will know his role and play more, think less.
If I counted right, this is where the Titans got their sacks in 2015: OLB: 14 DL: 13.5 ILB: 9 S: 2.5. A defensive end and an outside linebacker had seven sacks each.
To be clear: I did not just guarantee fifty sacks. I didn't even make a prediction. I said "should" and "might" a lot, and "will" only a little. I didn't nominate Barkevious Mingo for the Pro Bowl, or Ray Horton for the Hall of Fame.
It's just that the Browns should get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks next season, regardless of what they do in the draft.
Put down the shovel.
Monday, January 25, 2016
Comparing Cleveland Browns to 2016 Superbowl Teams
Ok stop laughing. I know I know...Look it's not that funny! No it isn't! Did I say that? "Compare" doesn't mean "same as" am I the only literate guy in Cleveland? Jeez!
If I can get you to shut up for a minute, we both know that the Cleveland Browns are a long way from the Carolina Panthers, and only a little closer to the Denver Broncos (well they are closer shaddap!)
But if we want to get there, we need to use a model as a rough target.
The Broncos have surprised a lot of us. All I heard all week was about Peyton Manning and his popgun arm, and Tom Brady with all his weapons. I bought it too.
In reality, Peyton Manning doesn't have the same arm as he had before, but has enough. Tom Brady is merely mortal when he has zero time, and Wade Philips can screw even him and his receivers up.
I got roped into the hype (shame on me), because I forgot that Denver's defense is about the best in the NFL, and Belichick or no Belichick, the Pats defense is a little above average. Owen who? Owen Daniels two touchdowns. No kidding the safeties were too scared of the outside receivers! Who Peyton can still throw to, contrary to the hype!
And I thought the Cards vs Panthers would be a slugfest. But look at that! That was CARSON PALMER throwing all those interceptions! I knew the Panther D was tough, but holy---
Ok I digress. We must start here with the coaches. The coaches are who:
1: Allow Cam Newton to be Cam Newton.
2: Designed the plays that got Owen Daniels open for touchdowns.
3: Make the most of the talent on their respective teams.
The Cleveland Browns have just assembled their own coaching staff, so there can be no conclusive comparisons. I can, as I compulsively do, look to histories to extrapolate how things should go, but it's still guesswork.
Having said that, Hue Jackson isn't Butch Davis (or Marvin Lewis, for that matter), and his assistants are experienced and capable.
Jackson is known to be adaptable and creative (not just another copycat blockhead), and in this respect is like the Superbowl coaches.
The final statement here has to be I think he can I think they can...
Next is the GMs and talent guys. This is another inconclusive. I think they will...
Now the meaty part: Talent. This is where I put a bunch of you into seizures, because you're not rational or objective and I'm not black cloudy enough:
Quarterback: Newton is in a class by himself right now, but Peyton Manning no longer is. For now I'm compelled to use Josh McCown for the Browns, and based on the performances of Manning (with his great receivers and dominant ballhawking defense) and McCown in 2015, Josh McCown was better. With munchkins and a terrible defense, and always coming from behind. Yes. He. Was.
Cam Newton makes both of them look sick, though.
Running back: Since Arizona lost, I'm happy to exclude David Johnson, who makes everybody else look sick. But Crowell and Duke are comparable to the other guys. Cut the crap. You have seen Crowell do what they did. He has proven it, when he gets the blocking. I'm sorry I know I'm supposed to say every single part of the Browns comparatively suck to achieve your twisted version of objectivity, but I'm not running for office so I'll stick to reality.
Wide receivers. Since Gordon and Pryor are still Browns, I will include them. In order to mollify you, I will toss the two in a blender and pour out a "pretty good" X-receiver to go with the microbes and Hartline.
That crew is better than Carolina's. That might not be true when they get Kelvin Benjamin back, but is true right now. Without Greg Olsen, Cam Newton would have had some real migraines this season leaning on Crotchery, Ginn, and Brown (although Brown has a great future ahead of him!)
Benjamin is the Browns Ginn, except he runs better routes and gets open more.
Denver's wide receivers are better. Significantly better. So stipulated.
Tight end: Barnidge is better than Owen Daniels. I can't figure out what happened to Vernon Davis, but there it is. Greg Olsen is better than anybody but Gronk.
Offensive line: The Browns offensive line is better than Denver's and maybe better than North Carolina's too. Per the PFF ratings so shut up. They'll be better than that, too, with a more appropriate blocking scheme.
PFF, by the way, doesn't blame offensive linemen for sacks when quarterbacks hold onto the ball too long.
PFF, by the way, doesn't blame offensive linemen for sacks when quarterbacks hold onto the ball too long.
Both of the Superbowl Teams have better front sevens. Both put constant pressure on quarterbacks, blow up runs, can cover, etc. The Browns do have some bright spots, but it's hard to pin down how bright until we see them in a Ray Horton system. But still, no way this current crew can be that good. Happy now?
The Browns healthy secondary (with Gipson) is in the ballpark with the Superbowl secondaries. In another effort to appease the ropes and torches, I'll say they're a little worse.
Understand here that I'm talking about raw talent, and not how they were used, or the fact that nobody in Denver can cover for eight seconds either see?
So, if your brain didn't shut down when I said McCown was better than Manning last season, you now know that the Browns don't have to rebuild their whole team after all.
I said front seven because with today's varied fronts defensive line and linebackers overlap so much. Des Bryant is a very good player. Armonte is a hybrid coming into his own. We look forward to Shelton. Because this unit doesn't match up to those, it doesn't mean they suck.
Wattilnextyear is right: One Von Miller, or even a Demarcus Ware, could change everything for an otherwise sound but unspectacular unit.
Unfortunately, quarterback has to come first, and unless Bryant or Orchard or even Mingo blossom, or Kruger comes back, or even Solomon (never forget: in Ray Horton's system), the Browns probably won't have a guy like that in 2016.
But they've got a lot more than most fans think.
Deal with it.
Cleveland Browns: No long-term solution at quarterback, another new coach, seven seasons of at least 11 losses in the past eight and one playoff game (one!) since 1999. The Browns arrow isn't close to pointing up, not even in a league where one-season turnarounds are possible. --Pat McManamon
1: Nowhere close
Cleveland Browns: No long-term solution at quarterback, another new coach, seven seasons of at least 11 losses in the past eight and one playoff game (one!) since 1999. The Browns arrow isn't close to pointing up, not even in a league where one-season turnarounds are possible. --Pat McManamon
Now that Pat got his two cents worth (literally) in, how did the Browns do against playoff teams?
Hammered by Seattle, almost beat Denver and Kansas City, lost 34-20 to Arizona, stomped by the Steelers twice. Pretty bad, but that bad? Take a pill, Pat!
In the article I clipped this from, the Baltimore Ravens were rated much higher.
I can't seem to find intelligent life anywhere around here.
Jared Goff Needs to be a Cleveland Brown
Greg Cosell hasn't done all his research yet, but based on his preliminary analysis, he sees Jared Goff as a better prospect than Jameis Winston. He also mentioned that he's a better natural thrower than Marcus Mariota.
Cosell is pretty brutal, and was never a big Winston fan anyway. He believes Winston is a good quarterback, but not necessarily a great one, even now after his first NFL season.
Cosell is harder on the guy than most other talent evaluators, who labelled him a franchise quarterback.
His using Winston, and not Mariota, as a Goff comparison isn't accidental, since comparing the two would be like comparing Cam Newton to Tom Brady. They're both terrific, but drastically different. He'll probably compare Paxton Lynch to Mariota.
In an "Ask Mary Kay", MKC anticipates Tennessee trading out of the first overall pick, as other teams might well make offers in pursuit of Goff. Sometimes I think they don't even want the guy that bad, but just want to make sure to screw the Browns out of him.
Mel Kiper said that a 3-13 team needs to take the best player, and not trade down. I wonder if he and Tony Grossi attended the same school. A 3-13 team needs more than one player, and can still land a stud after a trade-down. I just don't get how these guys think.
In the real world, Mary Kay is correct. If the Browns do indeed want Goff, they need to trade up to make sure.
As usual, the anti-Browns conspiracy is in full effect here, as a number of teams in range need a quarterback, and are likely to make bids. As usual, it will probably get ridiculous.
This is probably why Mary Kay brought up the Browns second round pick. On the surface, that is rediculous, but the bidding war could push the price that high.
Many (probably including Greg Cosell) would say that Goff isn't worth that. That's rational. But when you say "therefore they shouldn't do it", you've gone too far.
Sam "Iron Man" Bradford might condescend to bless the Browns with his legendary presence for 25 million a year. Peyton Manning might want to retire here. We can just draft a quarterback later and let Josh McCown start til he's 39 while they hopefully might develop him. Don't worry, the Browns will lose 14 games this season and get a quarterback in the next draft.
That's insane. All of it.
Now, how good is Goff? Well, he's skinny, for one thing. Almost as skinny as Bernie Kosar was.
He played against weaker competition, ran a spread offense out of the shotgun, and often threw very quickly to his first read. He doesn't throw well in motion, and needs to reset his feet. Pressure has given him happy feet, and harmed his performance.
This pretty much covers all the bad stuff. The good stuff is that he didn't have great receivers, spread the ball around to all of them, that he is quick and decisive, accurate, throws with anticipation, has the arm and touch, makes his own line calls and checks, dissects defenses with exceptional football intelligence, has few and occasional mechanical flaws, has a compact delivery, and runs around fairly well.
The most important thing here is his brain. Not only his own, but opposing coaches, and several talent guys are impressed by his abilities to move coverage with his eyes, ability to read coverage (and blitzes) correctly and make the right throw, and things of that nature.
This is why I've compared him so Saint Bernard (Kosar). Bernie Kosar came to the Browns via the supplemental draft, but in retrospect, would he have been worth a first overall pick to the Cleveland Browns?
There is a chance that Carson Wentz will show enough of these all-important NFL traits during Senior Bowl week to make himself palatable, but that's a very small sample size.
Fortunately, Cowboys staffers will be working with him, and may like him enough not to try to screw the Browns out of Goff. This probably wouldn't avert the need for the Browns to trade up, but could lower the price.
Manziel is another factor. He could be part of any trade, or else be dealt to another team in the running to mitigate the damage they might do in a bidding war.
Locally, Manziel is a pariah, but nationally, a lot of people saw what he did on the field, and his potential, and for next to nothing would take a flyer on him.
In an earlier entry, I proposed possibly trading Joe Thomas for Tennessee's first overall pick. Recent developments have made this far less likely (or desirable). But Manziel, if not dealt elsewhere, could be attractive to the Titans as a backup in a system tailored to his skill set.
As a backup, his antics would have a lower profile, and he wouldn't do much damage if he continued them. If he settles down and matures, he could also turn back into a valuable commodity. Smart GMs consider all these factors. Bill Belichick is probably waiting to scoop him up.
Clearly, this writer is in the Goff camp. He's Bernie Kosar to me, and worth it. Similar brain, arm (pre-injury), accuracy, anticipation, and touch. More compact, quicker release, and better mobility.
Yep. It might take a second round pick, or Manziel and a couple thirds, but I'd pay it. It could be Hue's last chance.
Cosell is pretty brutal, and was never a big Winston fan anyway. He believes Winston is a good quarterback, but not necessarily a great one, even now after his first NFL season.
Cosell is harder on the guy than most other talent evaluators, who labelled him a franchise quarterback.
His using Winston, and not Mariota, as a Goff comparison isn't accidental, since comparing the two would be like comparing Cam Newton to Tom Brady. They're both terrific, but drastically different. He'll probably compare Paxton Lynch to Mariota.
In an "Ask Mary Kay", MKC anticipates Tennessee trading out of the first overall pick, as other teams might well make offers in pursuit of Goff. Sometimes I think they don't even want the guy that bad, but just want to make sure to screw the Browns out of him.
Mel Kiper said that a 3-13 team needs to take the best player, and not trade down. I wonder if he and Tony Grossi attended the same school. A 3-13 team needs more than one player, and can still land a stud after a trade-down. I just don't get how these guys think.
In the real world, Mary Kay is correct. If the Browns do indeed want Goff, they need to trade up to make sure.
As usual, the anti-Browns conspiracy is in full effect here, as a number of teams in range need a quarterback, and are likely to make bids. As usual, it will probably get ridiculous.
This is probably why Mary Kay brought up the Browns second round pick. On the surface, that is rediculous, but the bidding war could push the price that high.
Many (probably including Greg Cosell) would say that Goff isn't worth that. That's rational. But when you say "therefore they shouldn't do it", you've gone too far.
Sam "Iron Man" Bradford might condescend to bless the Browns with his legendary presence for 25 million a year. Peyton Manning might want to retire here. We can just draft a quarterback later and let Josh McCown start til he's 39 while they hopefully might develop him. Don't worry, the Browns will lose 14 games this season and get a quarterback in the next draft.
That's insane. All of it.
Now, how good is Goff? Well, he's skinny, for one thing. Almost as skinny as Bernie Kosar was.
He played against weaker competition, ran a spread offense out of the shotgun, and often threw very quickly to his first read. He doesn't throw well in motion, and needs to reset his feet. Pressure has given him happy feet, and harmed his performance.
This pretty much covers all the bad stuff. The good stuff is that he didn't have great receivers, spread the ball around to all of them, that he is quick and decisive, accurate, throws with anticipation, has the arm and touch, makes his own line calls and checks, dissects defenses with exceptional football intelligence, has few and occasional mechanical flaws, has a compact delivery, and runs around fairly well.
The most important thing here is his brain. Not only his own, but opposing coaches, and several talent guys are impressed by his abilities to move coverage with his eyes, ability to read coverage (and blitzes) correctly and make the right throw, and things of that nature.
This is why I've compared him so Saint Bernard (Kosar). Bernie Kosar came to the Browns via the supplemental draft, but in retrospect, would he have been worth a first overall pick to the Cleveland Browns?
There is a chance that Carson Wentz will show enough of these all-important NFL traits during Senior Bowl week to make himself palatable, but that's a very small sample size.
Fortunately, Cowboys staffers will be working with him, and may like him enough not to try to screw the Browns out of Goff. This probably wouldn't avert the need for the Browns to trade up, but could lower the price.
Manziel is another factor. He could be part of any trade, or else be dealt to another team in the running to mitigate the damage they might do in a bidding war.
Locally, Manziel is a pariah, but nationally, a lot of people saw what he did on the field, and his potential, and for next to nothing would take a flyer on him.
In an earlier entry, I proposed possibly trading Joe Thomas for Tennessee's first overall pick. Recent developments have made this far less likely (or desirable). But Manziel, if not dealt elsewhere, could be attractive to the Titans as a backup in a system tailored to his skill set.
As a backup, his antics would have a lower profile, and he wouldn't do much damage if he continued them. If he settles down and matures, he could also turn back into a valuable commodity. Smart GMs consider all these factors. Bill Belichick is probably waiting to scoop him up.
Clearly, this writer is in the Goff camp. He's Bernie Kosar to me, and worth it. Similar brain, arm (pre-injury), accuracy, anticipation, and touch. More compact, quicker release, and better mobility.
Yep. It might take a second round pick, or Manziel and a couple thirds, but I'd pay it. It could be Hue's last chance.
Hope for Cleveland Browns Offensive Line
As you knew would happen if you read this blog, Joe Thomas is optimistic now that the hottest Head Coach candidate shocked the world by signing on with the Cleveland Browns.
This isn't rocket science. I'm one of those rare individuals for whome English is a first language, and who listens to what people say. Joe said he wanted to see what would happen, and used the word "maybe".
The three most recent coaches were assistants with no Head Coaching experience. They were break-glass-in-case-of-emergency hires who Haslam resorted to when the guys he wanted all took themselves out of the running.
This time around, Haslam had a plan in place, and changed things before the search even began in earnest. While many felt that Sashi Brown's control over the final roster would turn off most coaches, and that hiring DePodesta and the strong leaning toward analytics could cause conflict, Hue Jackson is actually impressed by it.
Hue has been there done that. It's unclear how much control he actually had over the single draft he conducted with the Raiders, but it didn't turn out very well. He got a very good center in the second round, and not much else (he didn't have a first round pick).
As I explained, Sashi knows his limitations, and won't be overriding the personnel people. He's mainly there to prevent irresponsible or impulsive moves. Hue gets this. He worked for Al Davis. And Hue is also secure in who he is and what he does best. He is rare: a Head Coach who isn't a megalomanic control freak.
But I digress. The Browns pretty much had Joe Thomas at "Hue Jackson".
Joe was careful not to comment further until Sashi Brown reached out to him. Smart. As Sashi said, Joe wanted to know how they were going to do this thing. Sashi also mentioned Joe's depth of knowledge, and the Browns wanting to "glean from it".
These words are meaningless to most fans, and are carefully chosen and non-specific, but the underlying message is there:
They discussed the blocking scheme. Joe made his own views clear, and Sashi gave him the answers he wanted.
Naturally, Joe also wanted some reassurance that reports of a wholesale rebuild were typical Chicken Little garbage, and they probably both laughed about it.
That's the first good news. More good news is that I now suspect that Alex Mack might stay. MIGHT. NOT WILL. M I G H T.
Eight million (his current deal) should be enough, but thanks to other boneheads massively overpaying their own centers, the market has shifted, and Mack and his agent know they can extort more money.
Thanks to Grossi, I now think that the high bid might be under ten million/year, and that Sashi might find a way to manage that.
Of course, if Mack wants to leave, he will leave anyway. However, his friends are here. Players with families generally like Cleveland. Mack wants to win, but this is Hue Jackson, and he'll hear what his buddy Joe heard about the blocking scheme (probably zone-centric) and the retention of the better players.
Tony Grossi made me more nervous about RT Mitchell Schwartze, as he pointed out for me (duh) that he would be a popular free agent target.
This isn't as simple, as Schwartze isn't an ideal fit for a zone-blocking scheme. He has steadily predictably improved each year, including in 2014 under Kyle Shanahan, and can certainly function in any scheme. But this will effect how much Sashi will be willing to pay.
Others have reported that there is no one on the current roster who could replace Schwartze, but in reality both Pasztor and Micheal Bowie are candidates, and Bowie is a better fit.
Bowie had a number of starts for the Superbowl Seahawks before coming to Cleveland, but played poorly here. Still, he was young, and in Seattle was pressed into service before he was ready. He is still improving.
Pasztor is a seasoned veteran who has played well at left guard.
Mitchell Schwartze is regarded as a solid right tackle, but we're not talking about Joe Thomas or Alex Mack here. We'll just have to see how silly other teams want to get with their offers to him.
Tony was unusually blunt in calling previous regimes stupid for not retaining their own free agents, and he's right.
To be fair, sometimes the demands got ridiculous, and the decisions weren't made in a vacuum. The coaches have to make best use of the players, and sometimes they didn't.
This is how you let a Jabaal Sheard go to New England to become a key component of that defense.
Tony points out that the Browns have a lot of cap space, and he's right there too. It doesn't mean you should spend it all, or wreck your budget by paying one guy a disproportionately higher salary than his teammates, but Sheard might have been retained. (Rubin was too greedy. He wasn't that good.)
With Ray Horton here, a serious effort to re-sign Gipson is likely. Other teams are acutely aware of his injuries, so his astronomical asking price is now a joke. He should want to stay, since the people who ticked him off are all gone, and the coach who gave him his best year is back.
Sashi has a good chance of retaining Gipson.
Tony mentions several other players, including core special teamers Bademosi and Tank Carder. Bademosi has led in tackles for four years, and would seem a no-brainer.
Craig Roberts is another guy with a good chance of returning. Ray Horton started him, and likes him. He has improved dramatically in coverage since Ray was last here.
Benjamin should be back.
Tony lists Terelle Pryor. Tony compares him to the Bengals Mohammud Sanu, who sometimes runs and passes the ball, and says "why not?".
That's funny. But I'm sure that Sashi will happily make him an offer based on that!
At least Grossi thinks it would be a good idea to keep him around as a novelty. That's at least smarter than just letting him go.
As Tony says, holding onto your own free agents is a big part of how you build a team. You bring these young guys along until they're at least average NFL players in their primes. If you don't then keep them, you're perpetually playing inexperienced players and rotating in other teams' castoffs who are unfamiliar with your systems.
Continuity isn't just about coaching staffs.
Returning to the offensive line, there is an outside chance that all of last season's starters will be back. Continuity is vastly more important here than anywhere else.
As Pat Kirwan, Gil Brandt, and literally every other genuine expert will tell you, a group of average offensive linemen who have played together for two seasons can be dominating, simply because they never miscommunicate, and instinctively support each other.
If Sashi Brown can pull this off, Hue Jackson's offense is half way there.
This isn't rocket science. I'm one of those rare individuals for whome English is a first language, and who listens to what people say. Joe said he wanted to see what would happen, and used the word "maybe".
The three most recent coaches were assistants with no Head Coaching experience. They were break-glass-in-case-of-emergency hires who Haslam resorted to when the guys he wanted all took themselves out of the running.
This time around, Haslam had a plan in place, and changed things before the search even began in earnest. While many felt that Sashi Brown's control over the final roster would turn off most coaches, and that hiring DePodesta and the strong leaning toward analytics could cause conflict, Hue Jackson is actually impressed by it.
Hue has been there done that. It's unclear how much control he actually had over the single draft he conducted with the Raiders, but it didn't turn out very well. He got a very good center in the second round, and not much else (he didn't have a first round pick).
As I explained, Sashi knows his limitations, and won't be overriding the personnel people. He's mainly there to prevent irresponsible or impulsive moves. Hue gets this. He worked for Al Davis. And Hue is also secure in who he is and what he does best. He is rare: a Head Coach who isn't a megalomanic control freak.
But I digress. The Browns pretty much had Joe Thomas at "Hue Jackson".
Joe was careful not to comment further until Sashi Brown reached out to him. Smart. As Sashi said, Joe wanted to know how they were going to do this thing. Sashi also mentioned Joe's depth of knowledge, and the Browns wanting to "glean from it".
These words are meaningless to most fans, and are carefully chosen and non-specific, but the underlying message is there:
They discussed the blocking scheme. Joe made his own views clear, and Sashi gave him the answers he wanted.
Naturally, Joe also wanted some reassurance that reports of a wholesale rebuild were typical Chicken Little garbage, and they probably both laughed about it.
That's the first good news. More good news is that I now suspect that Alex Mack might stay. MIGHT. NOT WILL. M I G H T.
Eight million (his current deal) should be enough, but thanks to other boneheads massively overpaying their own centers, the market has shifted, and Mack and his agent know they can extort more money.
Thanks to Grossi, I now think that the high bid might be under ten million/year, and that Sashi might find a way to manage that.
Of course, if Mack wants to leave, he will leave anyway. However, his friends are here. Players with families generally like Cleveland. Mack wants to win, but this is Hue Jackson, and he'll hear what his buddy Joe heard about the blocking scheme (probably zone-centric) and the retention of the better players.
Tony Grossi made me more nervous about RT Mitchell Schwartze, as he pointed out for me (duh) that he would be a popular free agent target.
This isn't as simple, as Schwartze isn't an ideal fit for a zone-blocking scheme. He has steadily predictably improved each year, including in 2014 under Kyle Shanahan, and can certainly function in any scheme. But this will effect how much Sashi will be willing to pay.
Others have reported that there is no one on the current roster who could replace Schwartze, but in reality both Pasztor and Micheal Bowie are candidates, and Bowie is a better fit.
Bowie had a number of starts for the Superbowl Seahawks before coming to Cleveland, but played poorly here. Still, he was young, and in Seattle was pressed into service before he was ready. He is still improving.
Pasztor is a seasoned veteran who has played well at left guard.
Mitchell Schwartze is regarded as a solid right tackle, but we're not talking about Joe Thomas or Alex Mack here. We'll just have to see how silly other teams want to get with their offers to him.
Tony was unusually blunt in calling previous regimes stupid for not retaining their own free agents, and he's right.
To be fair, sometimes the demands got ridiculous, and the decisions weren't made in a vacuum. The coaches have to make best use of the players, and sometimes they didn't.
This is how you let a Jabaal Sheard go to New England to become a key component of that defense.
Tony points out that the Browns have a lot of cap space, and he's right there too. It doesn't mean you should spend it all, or wreck your budget by paying one guy a disproportionately higher salary than his teammates, but Sheard might have been retained. (Rubin was too greedy. He wasn't that good.)
With Ray Horton here, a serious effort to re-sign Gipson is likely. Other teams are acutely aware of his injuries, so his astronomical asking price is now a joke. He should want to stay, since the people who ticked him off are all gone, and the coach who gave him his best year is back.
Sashi has a good chance of retaining Gipson.
Tony mentions several other players, including core special teamers Bademosi and Tank Carder. Bademosi has led in tackles for four years, and would seem a no-brainer.
Craig Roberts is another guy with a good chance of returning. Ray Horton started him, and likes him. He has improved dramatically in coverage since Ray was last here.
Benjamin should be back.
Tony lists Terelle Pryor. Tony compares him to the Bengals Mohammud Sanu, who sometimes runs and passes the ball, and says "why not?".
That's funny. But I'm sure that Sashi will happily make him an offer based on that!
At least Grossi thinks it would be a good idea to keep him around as a novelty. That's at least smarter than just letting him go.
As Tony says, holding onto your own free agents is a big part of how you build a team. You bring these young guys along until they're at least average NFL players in their primes. If you don't then keep them, you're perpetually playing inexperienced players and rotating in other teams' castoffs who are unfamiliar with your systems.
Continuity isn't just about coaching staffs.
Returning to the offensive line, there is an outside chance that all of last season's starters will be back. Continuity is vastly more important here than anywhere else.
As Pat Kirwan, Gil Brandt, and literally every other genuine expert will tell you, a group of average offensive linemen who have played together for two seasons can be dominating, simply because they never miscommunicate, and instinctively support each other.
If Sashi Brown can pull this off, Hue Jackson's offense is half way there.
Sunday, January 24, 2016
What Hue Will Do by Joe Twelvpak
I have looked into Hue Jackson's past and now know what he will do.
He started out coaching Joe Flacco and traded for Carson Palmer while coaching Campbell, so he clearly wants a tall quarterback with a strong arm. Andy Dalton isn't like that which is why Hue drafted AJ McCarron.
In Oakland he had Micheal Bush who was 6'1" 245 lbs and Darren McFadden at running back. The Browns backs aren't like those guys, and I thought they'd be cut or traded before I realized that the guys he had in Cincinnati are like Crowell and Johnson, so I guess they're all right.
Hue didn't have a good tight end in Oakland, but Barnidge probably won't get cut since he had Eiffert with the Bengals.
The Bengals have a big, physical offensive line, so Joe Thomas is in trouble.
The Bengals don't have smurfs, so all the small receivers here will have to go. As Sashi Brown confirmed, Josh Gordon will be released, and the whole Terrelle Pryor experiment was a failure, so the Browns need big receivers. Johnny Manziel isn't big enough, and Cardale Jones is the biggest quarterback in this draft, so they'll draft him instead of Goff, who is too skinny. Or they might get Jason Campbell back.
After releasing Cameron Erving and trading the undersized Joe Thomas, they will need bigger offensive linemen for Hue's favorite blocking scheme. Alex Mack can play in it, so they need to pay him whatever he wants.
The defense sucked last season so they need to get rid of all those players and bring in better ones this offseason. Tony Grossi is right that the defense should be a 4-3 so Hue needs to make sure Ray Horton runs one.
It will take several years for the Browns to be like the Bengals, because most of the team isn't like Hue Jackson's former team. But in five or six years, they should start winning more games than they lose.
The good news is that the Browns will be drafting first overall for at least two more years, so they can get a couple big number one wide receivers and a backup quarterback for Cardale.
He started out coaching Joe Flacco and traded for Carson Palmer while coaching Campbell, so he clearly wants a tall quarterback with a strong arm. Andy Dalton isn't like that which is why Hue drafted AJ McCarron.
In Oakland he had Micheal Bush who was 6'1" 245 lbs and Darren McFadden at running back. The Browns backs aren't like those guys, and I thought they'd be cut or traded before I realized that the guys he had in Cincinnati are like Crowell and Johnson, so I guess they're all right.
Hue didn't have a good tight end in Oakland, but Barnidge probably won't get cut since he had Eiffert with the Bengals.
The Bengals have a big, physical offensive line, so Joe Thomas is in trouble.
The Bengals don't have smurfs, so all the small receivers here will have to go. As Sashi Brown confirmed, Josh Gordon will be released, and the whole Terrelle Pryor experiment was a failure, so the Browns need big receivers. Johnny Manziel isn't big enough, and Cardale Jones is the biggest quarterback in this draft, so they'll draft him instead of Goff, who is too skinny. Or they might get Jason Campbell back.
After releasing Cameron Erving and trading the undersized Joe Thomas, they will need bigger offensive linemen for Hue's favorite blocking scheme. Alex Mack can play in it, so they need to pay him whatever he wants.
The defense sucked last season so they need to get rid of all those players and bring in better ones this offseason. Tony Grossi is right that the defense should be a 4-3 so Hue needs to make sure Ray Horton runs one.
It will take several years for the Browns to be like the Bengals, because most of the team isn't like Hue Jackson's former team. But in five or six years, they should start winning more games than they lose.
The good news is that the Browns will be drafting first overall for at least two more years, so they can get a couple big number one wide receivers and a backup quarterback for Cardale.
Mike Mayock Correction, Browns Coaching Structure
Mike Mayock is, in my opinion, the best overall talent evaluator among the pundit class.
He's not always right about team needs. That's okay. Right now, he has around 400 draftable players to research, and any research he does on the 32 NFL teams comes later. For the moment, he relies on what he saw last season, and what he hears.
Mayock for now expects the Browns to draft Jared Goff or Carson Wentz at number two. (Mayock goes against the grain and thinks more highly of Wentz than most others).
He's almost certainly right, at least about Goff. It almost doesn't matter that none of these quarterbacks are guaranteed franchise guys. In reality, this is the best chance they'll have to get that position settled in the Hue Jackson era. If you expect another 3-13 season here next season, you're not paying attention, and may need therapy. Or medication. Or maybe you're overmedicated.
But then Mike lists a big wide receiver as the second need. Clearly, Mike isn't yet among my legion readers (now pushing double digits!). (Seriously there's a chance DePodesta has found me).
Mike Mayock should just delete all his other Browns bookmarks and read this blog instead. If he did, he'd know all about Gordon and Pryor (and Hartline too).
Well, he does know about Gordon, but the red flags scare him. Not only his suspension status and stage 3, but the fact that when he returned in 2014 he blew routes and may have been out if shape.
I simply feel more optimistic about Josh than Mike does.
Mike doesn't even bother with Terrelle Pryor for the most part. Right now he's watching college tapes, and I'm not sure if he'll ever pay nearly as much attention to any professional players, unless it's to compare them to draftable prospects, or rate them as free agents.
Even if he did, Pryor had only four targets (and one completion).
But he is wrong.
Mayock also says the Browns need a center. In the last draft, Mayock mocked Erving to the Kansas City Chiefs 18th overall, and rated him as his second best center.
Erving failed at left guard (and on the field goal unit) last season. But if you read my blog, you'd know that Joel Bitonio was getting his head handed to him before he got injured as well. Pasztor appeared to stabilize the position, but this was after Pettine and DeFelipo finally realized that they had the option to run to the right side as well as the left side, and defenses could no longer flood the weak side a-gap on every down.
Nor is Erving a bulldozer. He is ideally a zone-blocker, and Flip had taken the blocking scheme away from that. It undermined the performances of every inside blocker (including Mack).
Finally, when starting at right guard, Erving was servicable, despite playing yet another unfamiliar position as a rookie.
This was partly because early on, he was worked at that position more.
LeCharles Bentley said that he would need to get stronger, and focus on his footwork. Bentley wants to remind people that Cam Erving was a rookie, and these issues are common for rookies.
Fortunately, Mike Mayock suggested drafting a center in the fourth round, so he was accidentally right: Many centers can also play guard, and good centers and guards can often be found in the fourth round. The Browns will want to build more offensive line depth, and should have insurance in case Erving doesn't make the off-season improvements that LeCharles and I expect him to.
Caleb Bailey wrote a good article on the Browns draft needs, and he ranked edge-rusher number two. This makes more sense.
I do wonder what Ray Horton will do with Orchard, Solomon, and Kruger/Mingo for the second time, but heat on opposing quarterbacks is very important, especially in the AFC North.
Still, I would look at offensive linemen even here, or a tight end.
Gary Barnidge turns 31 shortly. Joe Thomas probably won't ask for a trade, but he's the same age. Ditto John Greco, who's now been injured.
For that matter, I like Mitchell Schwartze, but if the run-blocking scheme goes zone-heavy as I suspect, he doesn't fit as well as the other guys.
Some other fans say the Browns should just draft a quarterback "later". "Later" is where they got steals like Colt McCoy, Spurgeon Wynn, and several other guys nobody remembers.
Cardale Jones? It's easy to see another Cam Newton in this guy, but it's also easy to see another Terrelle Pryor. Like most of the other guys, it remains to be seen whether or not he will ever be able to make NFL reads, or throw with better accuracy or with anticipation.
Recent articles are giving Hue Jackson kudos for his innovative coaching organization. Well it's more likely a DePodesta idea. That's a big part of why he's here.
This setup sets Hue Jackson free. He can delegate literally everything on both offense and defense, and from day-to-day focus on whatever he needs to focus on. He'll have time to just think, and come up with new ideas.
He can just drift around, looking for things to do. This offensive staff will meet with him at the beginning of the week. With their experienced input, they'll hammer out a game plan, and the assistants are able to implement it in detail.
When Bill Belichick coached for the Browns, he worked 18 hours a day, and micromanaged every facet of the team. He kept changing the game plan throughout the week. He worked extremely hard, but in a dumb way.
After he went back to Bill Parcells, then got his second chance with the Patriots, he did it more like his mentor. He delegated.
Bill recruited the very best assistant coaches he could find, and allowed them to do their jobs. He routed his obsession into breaking down opponents and coming up with new ideas.
A couple of players who played for Hue Jackson and Bill Belichick said that the two were similar.
I know, some of you fell off your chairs there, but the locker room Bill bears no resemblance to the Press Conference Bill. His players say he's funny as hell, and makes them laugh a lot.
But more specifically, the players meant that Hue, like Bill, comes up with new ideas.
Most coaches just look around at other teams. They see what works best, and copy it. Elite coaches are the ones everybody else copies
Wes Welker was Wes Who? before the Patriots. He became Wes Who? when he left the Patriots. Julian Who? became Julian Edelman when he came to the Patriots. While all the other teams blew their budgets overpaying big "number one" outside receivers (following the model), Bill found the best tight end he could, a slot receiver, and kicked all their butts.
Patriot/Brady/Bill bashers abound. I feel sorry for all of you.
And please, quit saying Hue wants this or Hue likes that because of the players he coached. He only had one draft. He was assigned most of those players. He no doubt adapted to the players he was stuck with, including offensive linemen.
It's logical to expect him to want at least one big fast X-receiver (I'm sure Bill wants one every year too), but beyond that, you're just guessing.
For my next entry, I'll research what I can on how Hue Jackson handled things in his one year as Raiders Head Coach, and present my analysis for your edification.
He's not always right about team needs. That's okay. Right now, he has around 400 draftable players to research, and any research he does on the 32 NFL teams comes later. For the moment, he relies on what he saw last season, and what he hears.
Mayock for now expects the Browns to draft Jared Goff or Carson Wentz at number two. (Mayock goes against the grain and thinks more highly of Wentz than most others).
He's almost certainly right, at least about Goff. It almost doesn't matter that none of these quarterbacks are guaranteed franchise guys. In reality, this is the best chance they'll have to get that position settled in the Hue Jackson era. If you expect another 3-13 season here next season, you're not paying attention, and may need therapy. Or medication. Or maybe you're overmedicated.
But then Mike lists a big wide receiver as the second need. Clearly, Mike isn't yet among my legion readers (now pushing double digits!). (Seriously there's a chance DePodesta has found me).
Mike Mayock should just delete all his other Browns bookmarks and read this blog instead. If he did, he'd know all about Gordon and Pryor (and Hartline too).
Well, he does know about Gordon, but the red flags scare him. Not only his suspension status and stage 3, but the fact that when he returned in 2014 he blew routes and may have been out if shape.
I simply feel more optimistic about Josh than Mike does.
Mike doesn't even bother with Terrelle Pryor for the most part. Right now he's watching college tapes, and I'm not sure if he'll ever pay nearly as much attention to any professional players, unless it's to compare them to draftable prospects, or rate them as free agents.
Even if he did, Pryor had only four targets (and one completion).
But he is wrong.
Mayock also says the Browns need a center. In the last draft, Mayock mocked Erving to the Kansas City Chiefs 18th overall, and rated him as his second best center.
Erving failed at left guard (and on the field goal unit) last season. But if you read my blog, you'd know that Joel Bitonio was getting his head handed to him before he got injured as well. Pasztor appeared to stabilize the position, but this was after Pettine and DeFelipo finally realized that they had the option to run to the right side as well as the left side, and defenses could no longer flood the weak side a-gap on every down.
Nor is Erving a bulldozer. He is ideally a zone-blocker, and Flip had taken the blocking scheme away from that. It undermined the performances of every inside blocker (including Mack).
Finally, when starting at right guard, Erving was servicable, despite playing yet another unfamiliar position as a rookie.
This was partly because early on, he was worked at that position more.
LeCharles Bentley said that he would need to get stronger, and focus on his footwork. Bentley wants to remind people that Cam Erving was a rookie, and these issues are common for rookies.
Fortunately, Mike Mayock suggested drafting a center in the fourth round, so he was accidentally right: Many centers can also play guard, and good centers and guards can often be found in the fourth round. The Browns will want to build more offensive line depth, and should have insurance in case Erving doesn't make the off-season improvements that LeCharles and I expect him to.
Caleb Bailey wrote a good article on the Browns draft needs, and he ranked edge-rusher number two. This makes more sense.
I do wonder what Ray Horton will do with Orchard, Solomon, and Kruger/Mingo for the second time, but heat on opposing quarterbacks is very important, especially in the AFC North.
Still, I would look at offensive linemen even here, or a tight end.
Gary Barnidge turns 31 shortly. Joe Thomas probably won't ask for a trade, but he's the same age. Ditto John Greco, who's now been injured.
For that matter, I like Mitchell Schwartze, but if the run-blocking scheme goes zone-heavy as I suspect, he doesn't fit as well as the other guys.
Some other fans say the Browns should just draft a quarterback "later". "Later" is where they got steals like Colt McCoy, Spurgeon Wynn, and several other guys nobody remembers.
Cardale Jones? It's easy to see another Cam Newton in this guy, but it's also easy to see another Terrelle Pryor. Like most of the other guys, it remains to be seen whether or not he will ever be able to make NFL reads, or throw with better accuracy or with anticipation.
Recent articles are giving Hue Jackson kudos for his innovative coaching organization. Well it's more likely a DePodesta idea. That's a big part of why he's here.
This setup sets Hue Jackson free. He can delegate literally everything on both offense and defense, and from day-to-day focus on whatever he needs to focus on. He'll have time to just think, and come up with new ideas.
He can just drift around, looking for things to do. This offensive staff will meet with him at the beginning of the week. With their experienced input, they'll hammer out a game plan, and the assistants are able to implement it in detail.
When Bill Belichick coached for the Browns, he worked 18 hours a day, and micromanaged every facet of the team. He kept changing the game plan throughout the week. He worked extremely hard, but in a dumb way.
After he went back to Bill Parcells, then got his second chance with the Patriots, he did it more like his mentor. He delegated.
Bill recruited the very best assistant coaches he could find, and allowed them to do their jobs. He routed his obsession into breaking down opponents and coming up with new ideas.
A couple of players who played for Hue Jackson and Bill Belichick said that the two were similar.
I know, some of you fell off your chairs there, but the locker room Bill bears no resemblance to the Press Conference Bill. His players say he's funny as hell, and makes them laugh a lot.
But more specifically, the players meant that Hue, like Bill, comes up with new ideas.
Most coaches just look around at other teams. They see what works best, and copy it. Elite coaches are the ones everybody else copies
Wes Welker was Wes Who? before the Patriots. He became Wes Who? when he left the Patriots. Julian Who? became Julian Edelman when he came to the Patriots. While all the other teams blew their budgets overpaying big "number one" outside receivers (following the model), Bill found the best tight end he could, a slot receiver, and kicked all their butts.
Patriot/Brady/Bill bashers abound. I feel sorry for all of you.
And please, quit saying Hue wants this or Hue likes that because of the players he coached. He only had one draft. He was assigned most of those players. He no doubt adapted to the players he was stuck with, including offensive linemen.
It's logical to expect him to want at least one big fast X-receiver (I'm sure Bill wants one every year too), but beyond that, you're just guessing.
For my next entry, I'll research what I can on how Hue Jackson handled things in his one year as Raiders Head Coach, and present my analysis for your edification.
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