Per Randy Gurzi, CBS writer John Breech thinks that the Browns could well trade with Lord Insideous in New England for Joe Thumey.
I was about to flush this where it belonged until I heard Njoku and a 2nd round pick.
Hmm...it's awful tempting. With a first round Left Tackle, Thumey at RG could instantly render this the best Offensive Line in the NFL.
Still, I don't think so:
1: Breech et al labor under the false ass umption that Dorsey Kitchens left his Dog House behind with Njoku on Death Row; that Austin Hooper is here to replace him.
While Berry will listen to offers for Njoku and most of the other players, he'd prefer to keep him, and let Stefanski run his 2-Tight End offense.
2: Like Fullbacks, pass-catching Tight Ends are undervalued, so Paul DePodesta loves the Fullback and Tight Ends for financial/cap reasons.
3: Thumey will expect even more than his Tag money on any extention. That's too damn much.
4: Teller, Forbes, and the Guard they'll probably draft should work out. For the last 2-3 games of 2020, Wyatt Teller was servicable.
The percieved need at Right Guard is another simpletonian ass umption.
Even if it were true, they could draft a Guard with...their second round pick.
. Get it, John?
Pete Smith, as always, offers the deepest insight into the Browns/Jadeveon Clowney rumors.
Pete said much of what I said, but left out that Clowney has been playing Outside Linebacker, and (I just found out) played hurt last season with a core muscle injury (which he got operated on).
Pete had to go and dump icewater on me by saying that Clowney probably wants another one-year deal (he's only 27) so that he can re-enter Free Agency in 2021 with his Brinks truck all detailed and tuned up.
I hope Pete is wrong (but he rarely is). There is some hope, as Pete suggests that the Browns could sweeten the base money with performance incentives.
That's a no-lose deal for the team. An obvious bonus would be 10+ sacks, but they could get into forced turnovers, TFL, etc.
I don't know Clowney, but he was originally gouging for 20 mil/year, right? Well, how about 17 mil/year (no front-loading--sigh) plus:
1: 750,000 if he plays in over 14 games.
2: 100,000 per sack after 8 sacks.
3: 1,000,000 if he gets 10 sacks.
4: 100,000 for every forced turnover after 4.
5: 500,000 if he forces over 8 turnovers.
6: 500,000 if he gets over 20 tackles-for-loss.
He would certainly have a chance to rake in all these bonuses as a base Defensive End (and occasional Linebacker and Defensive Tackle).
Is Clowney goal-oriented; willing to "bet on himself", responsive to challenges? Or is he more concerned about security (you know--"what if I get hurt?")
The contract could be structured so that Clowney could earn more than 21 or 22 in a given season, and maybe he would sign on for more than one season.
As Pete says, Jedeveon runs hot and cold, and performance bonuses would motivate him. Is he himself smart enough to know that? Beyond the bonuses, if he achieves them, he could really get "paid" with his next (and probably last) contract.
Matt Goul lists 5 Day 2 Linebackers that the Browns could draft (2nd or 3rd round).
Along with the guys I've already talked about, Matt lists Akeem Davis-Gaither but, in addition to weighing 224 lbs, this guy doesn't cover very well. A good player who can rush the passer too, but looks like more of a Day 3 guy to me.
Troy Dye is 6'3", 231 lbs, and is a 3-down Linebacker with good recognition, speed, and instincts (per Zierlein, mind you--so if I'm wrong it's his fault)
Anyway Troy can also blitze and cover (like a Safety), but is skinny. I guess he has one of those Webster Slaughter-like metabolisms that make it hard for him to build up muscle mass, but...ok I need to question Lance Zielein here:
6'3", 231 lbs isn't that skinny! He might not be a thumping MIKE, but there's definitely a place for him in any modern NFL defense as a Safetybacker, even if he shrinks to 225 lbs grinding out a season.
I think some of these guys get fixated on appearances, ya know? Why don't you guys look at the old Steel Curtain and check out Jack Lambert. Now that is skinny!
I like this Troy Dye guy (thanks Matt!)
Willie Gay Jr doesn't look that good. Per Zierlein, he lacks football intelligence and instincts. He tested great at the Combine, has prototypical Linebacker size, and is a terrific athlete...
But he got in a fight with his own Quarterback and got suspended for...some academic violation (had to be cheating).
Everybody deserves second chances, and we all screw up in our punkdoms, but "poor angles", "out of position", "takes the cheese" etc combined with this...I don't take this guy before the 5th round.
You guys already know Buckeye Malik Harrison (better than me. I didn't watch any Ohio State games).
Malik is kind of a throw-back linebacker who can't (yet) cover well (except maybe in zone).
His 4.66 40 and 6.83 (cornerback-like--and he's 6'3"!!!) 3-cone say that he has the physical tools to become good in coverage eventually.
He's kicked ass vs elite competition and has a ton of experience. I like him a lot more now than I did before the combine (again: that 3-cone was off the charts!)
Evidently, Matt Goul expects Queen and Murray to get drafted in the first round. That's possible, but I doubt it. And one or more of these guys will slide into day 3.
In 2020, NFL defenses are looking for Safetybackers and Free Safeties who can also cover slot guys, but actual linebackers (like Malik Harrison) remain undervalued.
The modern front is a front 6 (not 7), and 2-Tight End offenses haven't changed that.
This is why pundits who say that the Browns urgently, desperately, need to fill this glaring need for more linebackers are...wrong (-pat-pat- I'm so proud of myself. Maybe I'm ready to enter politics!).
You do need a "thumper" Linebacker for sure (and a backup too), but the rest of your "linebackers" all need to cover, and that's why so many of them today are former safeties, and they're generally smaller and quicker.
Every "linebacker" in this draft class who can't man-cover Tight Ends or Running Backs (except maybe Harrison) will slide to day 3. Most of the oversized Strong Safeties will go higher than they did in 2019.
Everybody (except the aforementioned troglodites pundits) get this, 0000so it's tough for DePodesta (or anybody else) to get an edge.
Letting Schobert walk was one smart move. How many oversized Safeties and Linebackers who excel in coverage have I and others told you about in this draft class?
The Jagwires paid Joe around 10.5 mil/year.
Possibly the Jags DC Todd Wash runs a Gregg Williams-type system requiring a "field general" like the super-smart Schobert, but that's the only reason you'd pay a MLB that much in 2020.
The Browns will replace him for less than 25% of that, and the one or two players who will get that done will probably do everything he did...except miss tackles.
Malik Harrison could be another sneaky way for DePodesta to get an edge:
Just as it's smarter in the long run to take a first rounder next year instead of a second rounder this year, it's smarter to take a player with a higher cieling over a less talented, but more "pro ready" player.
This "pro-ready" bias is a foodball guy thing, and we're already seeing it as both amatuers and real experts rank the Offensive Tackles.
For a lot of these guys (including Joe Thomas), Ezra Cleveland and Josh Jones (who PFF ranks third by the way) aren't worth considering because they're not YET as good as the "big 4".
Paul DePodesta is always going to take the long view, and Andrew Berry will cooperate. They will draft players based on how good they project to be in their third and fourth NFL seasons.
This is why an Ezra Cleveland, Josh Jones, or an Austin Jackson are viable options for them--and why, with this perfect, ideal draft class, they can trade down and stockpile draft picks but I digress:
Malik Harrison is like Josh Jones or Ezra Cleveland, see?
He "can't cover", so the foodball guyz will all draft all but one of the Linebackers I've mentioned in this article ahead of him.
DePoBerry might nab Harrison in the 3rd (or even 4th) round.
Harrison might start immediately, and could certainly contribute in short yardage as a rookie, and for the foodball guyz that's all there is. (I'm exaggerating, of course--they're not that stupid--but their nownownow bias is extreme).
3 years from now, Malik Harris is probably shutting down Tight Ends in man coverage, and Ezra Cleveland is probably shutting down elite Edge-rushers.
WE could be wrong, and Cleveland or Harrison could crap out, but so could any of the guys drafted ahead of them. Greg Robinson was a 2nd overall pick.
Do you comprehend that Paul DePodesta isn't picking the players? That he never did?
It's a little complicated, as he had to make recommendations to and consult with real personnel guys like Andrew Berry. While some of his favorite players were no doubt picked (by the real personnel guys), most probably were not.
Sadly, Corey Coleman was almost certainly a DePodesta pick, and of course Paul infamously said that "we didn't think (Carson Wentz) would be a top 20 Quarterback" shut up, Paul!!!
Andrew Berry actually made the calls under Sashi Brown. It never ceases to crack me up when I hear people bashing Sashi Brown for bad draft picks. Sashi Brown had less to do with that than DePodesta did.
...seriously, you think a lawyer and cap guy with a brain took it upon himself to override pros like Andrew Berry? You need to quit watching those crappy unreality shows (and Jerry Springer).
Berry made some mistakes, but Zeitler, Tretter, DeValve, Nassib, Ogbah, Njoku, Higgins, Garrett, Ogunjobi and the plethora of draft picks John Dorsey found under his Xmas tree were not among them.
I believe that Andrew Berry, having since the Brown regime worked 0under John Dorsey and Howard Roseman, must be "upgraded", and that there will be more Ogunjobis and Tretters, and fewer Colemans and...like the other WR from the Higgins class or something.
(By the way, I would trade Baker Mayfield and Njoku and our 2nd round pick and my first born offspring to Cinci for 1st overall (Burrow)...maybe more. Just had to get that off my chest.)
Everybody "misses" on draft picks (see Dorsey, John). Trading down for more draft picks is always smart whenever you don't have a target who is head and shoulders better than the rest (or you're not desperate for a Quarterback).
Once again, I tell you that Hunt, OBJ, and 10th overall (and Njoku and other players) are all on the trading block, regardless of what Stefanski or Berry or whoever says.
2021 (or even 2022) draft picks and players under contract will be considered. This is why Paul DePodesta is the Chief STRATEGY Officer, see?
Don't you think John Dorsey wanted DePodesta fired? (My bad--I myself thought and told you guys that Dorsey was semi-analytical and would work with DePodesta. I was very, very wrong).
Jimmy Haslam first hired "Mr Moneyball" and then refused to fire him through 2 regimes.
Sorry for the redundancy, but DePodesta wanted Sean McDermott over Hue Jackson, then Stefanski over Kitchens. I guarantee you that he fought the OBJ/Vernon trade tooth and nail.
And he was right. Every single time. We can bash Jimmy Haslam for all of this stuff, but the 3 smart things he did was hiring, refusing to fire, and enpowering Paul DePodesta.
Casey Kinnamon thinks the 2020 Browns Special Teams will be extra special, and Captain Obvious and I concur.
Gillan and Seifert enter their second seasons. JoJo Natson is like ("Ice Cube") Gerald McNeil; a microbe who is as easy to swat as a fly...with a screwdriver.
The bottom of the roster fills our the Special Teams units, and the 2020 Browns have so far retained most of those players.
All of the units should improve in 2020, and JoJo Natson should make at lesst the kick return unit scarier all by himself.
Errumm...Andrew Berry needs to build a team aimed to defeat the Ravens. The Ravens are, and should remain, the best team in the AFC North.
That's cool, since a lot of other teams are trying to copy them (notably the multiple Tight Ends and zone-blocking).
Outside of Seattle and Arizona, nobody has a QB like Lamar Jackson, but if you build a defense to stop the Ravens, you can probably duke it out with the rest of the copycat offenses.
The Ravens Defense...well read this. (Or don't! I can summarize: We're all gonna die!!!)
Except the Browns under Kitchens beat them last season. The Ravens returned the favor by utterly stuffing Nick Chubb, but:
That Browns offense was not commited to zone-blocking or play-action. It did not have Jack Conlin. Njoku was MIA, there was no Hooper, Hubbard and Robinson were the OTs, and (as usual) Mayfield was forcing passes to the injured OBJ instead of just doing what made him great (don't keep me started).
The 2020 Browns offense should be able to rack up points on any defense, including the Ravens.
...ah jeez...you see Offenses have the advantage of acting instead of reacting.
The extremely talented and well-coached Ravens Defense can be stifled and confused by the Shanahan offense, especially by a Quarterback who burns blitzes llke Baker Mayfield did all his life...until 2019 and OBJ but I digress:
Anyhoo the 2020 Browns have a real shot vs the 2020 Ravens.
While the Ravens have managed to tread water, the Browns have upgraded their talent significantly, and will finish off their Offensive line...
Screw it. Ravens fans have every right to expect a Superbowl, with the Browns being an oversized speed-bump at worst. They're loaded and brilliantly coached.
It is what it is. The Browns are loaded too, and could upset them, but a Ravens' sweep is likely.
However, the 2020 Browns should sweep the overrated Steelers and the Bengals...
Okbye
A bunch of people have finally caught up to me and are talking about potential trades involving the 10th overall pick.
One very smart guy has the Browns trading up to 5th for Superman Isaiah Simmons, and then back into the first round for Ezra Cleveland.
Most others are trade-downs. But none of them consider the potential trades of OBJ and Kareem Hunt, which could well yield first round picks (even in this WR-rich Draft Class. "Football guys", remember? Eggzbeereeunz?)
They could as well get 2021 picks for these guys, along with (lower) 2020 picks. I've explained this before:
If you're a GM in "win now" mode; you have a contending team and might well get fired if you don't meet certain goals in 2020, you will be much more inclined to part with 2021 picks than 2020 picks (to keep your job NOW).
There are other more analytical reasons for this as well--it's often a very smart move.
Jones, Rosen, Mayock or somebody might want Kareem Hunt, the awesome swiss army knife/bellcow, or OBJ, the plug-and-play instastarter superstar, but hell no, not for their first round pick! (That would be me, in their shoes...well for OBJ, anyway-Hunt is different).
Anyway, a 2021 first round pick is a different story, especially if I expect to draft near the bottom. I get a player who can help me do that, and maybe win me a Superbowl in 2020 and can still draft another stud in the first round.
OBJ is signed long-term, and Hunt is a running back who lacks leverage--both in their primes.
Long-term, this is the best kind of deal DePodesta wants to make. It spreads out the big future contracts to make the cap more managable, and minimizes Jack Conklin or Austin Hooper type casualties.
It delivers more real value over time, as a current 2nd rounder is worth a future 1st rounder.
In this case, the other GM is sorta offering a 2020 2nd round pick for OBJ or Kareem Hunt, (and a low one at that.)
This is a non-starter. The other GM has to cough up more. This could be a player, or maybe their 2020 2nd round pick.
Still with me? This would be like two low 2020 2nd round picks for a young All-Pro, as far as value is concerned. Actually, a great deal for the other GM (yeah I would want more...)
Anyway, it's quite possible that Kareem Hunt could yield a low first round pick in 2020, period, while OBJ could get a 2021 1st and 2020 2nd round pick (and maybe the Browns toss in their 5th rounder).
I know that Chad Porto wouldn't make this trade, but then he wanted the Browns to hand Joe Schobert a blank check, and tends to ignore schemes, market values, and ascending players on the roster.
Anyway, my way the Browns add a low first round pick and a low 2nd round pick in 2020, and admittedly sacrifice two superstar players
Why? Because they need a Free Safety, an EDGE guy, a linebacker or two, a tall deep threat X receiver, and could upgrade nearly everywhere.
Because they need to fill up their piggy bank for Mayfield, Garrett, Chubb, Ward, Njoku (that's right him too--and I bet Ogunjobi comes roaring back in 2020 too) etc.
Because Kareem Hunt is redundant with Nick Chubb in Stefanski's offense, and OBJ is redundant with Landry here, too.
Because 2019 was the first time OBJ ever played all 16 games, and he's historicly missed a third or more of his games to injuries, and Kareem Hunt will be lost for nothing to free agency after 2020.
Because this offense is not designed to make the most of these players' talents (unless Nick Chubb gets injured).
Is any of this sinking in yet?
Anyway, my way, the Browns already have that low first round pick to draft Ezra Cleveland or another Left Tackle without trading down.
They also have an extra 2nd round pick, so they could make a move up from 10th if Simmons somehow slides enough to make such a move viable...or they could just go best available.
Frank Teriaca lists 3 non-OTs the Browns could take at 10th overall. Simmons is a fantasy, but DT Derrick Brown *I like Kinlaw* should be there, as should Safety Xavier McKinney.
Either Defensive Tackle would give the Browns maybe the deepest DT rotation in the NFL, with 3-man front potential (2 nose tackles and 2 DEs).
You want to stop the run? That would help a lot.
But McKinney would probably make an even bigger impact. He can play Center Field, as well as line up anywhere else. The rest of the Safeties in this class are mostly box-players (like Jabrill Peppers).
McKinney would be a bit of a reach at 10th overall, but screw it. OR, they could trade down (a little) and still get him.
In my latest dream-scenario, the OBJ and Hunt trades went down as described, adding a low first and low 2nd round pick.
Now they're at 10th and all 3 of Terica's players are still there.
A trade-down here is very possible, as QBs Tua and Herbert could still be there.
I'll indulge my inner child and say they move down 2-4 slots and pick up a mid 3rd round pick for their trouble, and still get McKinney, (and the Easter Bunny is real).
So McKinney and Cleveland in the 1st round, (and socialism will fix everything).
Now for my wish-list players (disclaimer: I don't watch college football. I rely on certain legitimate pro scouts and experts, so if I am fulla beans, it's all their fault):
1: The linebackers listed 2/3/4 behind Simmons: Queen, Murray, and Baun.
All of these guys are real linebackers who fit in the modern NFL, and should start immediately. Simmons casts a shadow on these guys, but if he wasn't in this draft class, 1 or 2 of these guys would be getting lots of hype, and go in the first round.
Saquon Barkley was all the rage in his draft class. Nick Chubb was an afterthought. It's like that with linebackers, too. These 3 guys, who will probably go in the 2nd or 3rd round, are partly why you don't pay a Joe Schobert triple digits.
Jeremy Chinn and Kyle Dugger. These guys are in Simmons' shadow as well, as they are swiss army knife linebacker/safeties too.
The Browns need to match up with the Ravens (not to mention the copycats) and cover those two Tight Ends and those running backs lining up in the slot and stuff, and these guys can do that (however you label them).
They can also run-and-hit, blitze, shed blocks, and everything else you want your Safetybacker to do.
Again: Second or even third round!
Josh Uche: Zeirlein hammered Josh pretty good here, and based on this analyisis, you wonder if he'll even get drafted.
I noticed Josh because he was THE most impressive defensive player throughout Senior Bowl week. Uche spent most of his time in the enemy backfield.
Uche, at 6'1", 245 is a linebacker. He can man up on Tight Ends as well as blitze.
Uche only started for one season in college, and Zeirlein seems to think that this is because he makes mistakes; lacks instincts.
Uche has good but not exceptional physical tools, but even his harshest critic expects him to be a starter by his third season.
I take the Senior Bowl more seriously than the majority of real experts, especially in the trenches, where it's mano e mano.
Josh Uche might well be there in the 4th round or lower, and I would scoop him up there.
The fact that he only started for one season means that he is inexperienced, which in turn implies more upside.
He will not become an edge-rushing specialist, but might become a starting SAM (who can cover and blitze).
This just in: Ellis L Williams thinks FB Andy Janovich could be Stefanski's "secret weapon", and makes his case for that in the film room.
Okely-dokely! So what is Kareem Hunt doing here?
No-no I hear you: Hunt can do most of that stuff and do it better--so stipulated BUT:
Janovich is under contract for several years for chump-change. Kareem Hunt will soon cost at least 3x as much, see?
Fullbacks are undervalued. It's a market flaw. DePodesta exploits these flaws--that's business analytics.
Janovich's value as a blocker can't be accurately measured, but Kareem Hunt can't match it.
Did the Browns just trade for Janovich so he could back up Kareem Hunt? Is Kareem Hunt going to be a full time WR?
Hey Mary Kay! Why would the Browns NOT trade Kareem Hunt?
Duh, YOU STAND CORRECTED.
The most recent rumors about Jedeveon Clowney don't mention the Browns, and I guess I'm missing something.
That's quite possible, for real. Coaches and GMs aren't going to come out and bash any players publicly, but this guy should be a lot more...popular than he seems to be.
Questions about Clowney's work ethic and motor aren't breaking news, but he sure seems to be doing a great job, especially according to PFF.
Upon further review, Clowney is kind of getting screwed in re his sack numbers, as he's been a Linebacker for most of his carreer.
Unlike most of those 3-4 guys, Clowney actually can cover Hooper or Njoku-type Tight Ends, and crash down out of a backpedal like a much smaller man.
By the way I was wrong to compare him to Myles Garrett. Clowney is faster and stops/starts faster. Myles could play 3-4 OLB, but nobody would want him man covering those scary Tight Ends.
But that's part of my point: Clowney can put his hand in the dirt and be a dedicated passrusher as well as anybody else can. He has the length, burst, strength, moves--all of that, and he's excellent vs the run too.
Most of these hybrid players under truth serum will tell you that they'd rather just attack the pocket all the time than mess with coverage.
I was also fulla beans about the "one year deals". He got one of those from the Seahawks, but played out his rookie contract (with the 5th year option) with the Texans, who then franchised him, and traded him to the Seahawks for a bunch of stuff.
Here, it seems like he just got too greedy. He was an "OLB" with the Texans, and that tag was around 1.3 mil cheaper than that of a DE.
I deduce/suspect that he wanted moe moe moe, and the Texans couldn't pay him enough. Then the Seahawks...well here we are---they couldn't get an extention done with him either.
It sounds like a watered-down Ebineezer Bell situation, except Clowney isn't...you know--an idiot?
On Tom Brady Radio, Charlie Weiss is chuckling about this, and predicting that Clowney wilhe get paid 11-12 million. I don't get this. Does Charlie know something I don't? 11-12 mil!?!
...sorry I was stunned, just writing that. Anyway, I know that sacks are very important, but let's not go overboard over his paltry 3 sacks last season.
This is why analytics is sometimes smarter than "foodball guyz". PFF says he's an elite passrusher, even with just 3 sacks. That's because they count the times he made the QB run out of bounds, throw it away, throw prematurely, etc.
And then, Clowney isn't a "specialist". He holds the edge, blows up runs---makes big plays regardless of down and distance. Does Charlie Weiss think a guy who got 10 sacks and otherwise got shoved around and trampled should get paid more than Clowney?
I would offer Clowney a four year contract for 68 mil (average 17 mil/year). I'd give him a 10 mil signing bonus in 2020 in addition to 17 mil guaranteed (yes that is correct: Twenty Seven Million bucks in 2020).
...with a balance of 41 mil over 3 years left over (average roughly 13.6 mil/year)...see how that works?
But then, that could be the problem. Some players/agents ignore the gobs and gobs of money they got paid up front, and start bitching about how underpaid they are the instant their base pay comes down. There's no such thing as "good faith" or a "mutual understanding" or "honor" or "integrity" with them.
And of course the majority of you people fall for it! "He got 8.5 sacks and stuff and they're only paying him 13.6 mil!!!"
I'm not saying that Clowney would pull that crap (Ebineezer Bell absotively would), but I can see why Andrew Berry might be hesitant to sign Clowney.
I also think that the Browns should sign Josh Gordon for one year at the league minimum (no guarantees).
It doesn't matter how many times Josh fell off the wagon in the past. You read that last paragraph, right? So what is the risk? And why not?
No, he's not disruptive or (good grief) a "locker room cancer". He's soft-spoken and thoughtful, and everybody likes him.
Sentimentality aside, Josh Gordon is still in his prime, has already proven himself as a Wide Receiver, and could again be the scariest one in the NFL...or he could screw up again in which case...meh.
There is no downside here. No risk. It's like betting one cent for a chance to win 100 million.
He's also the "Stefon Diggs" part of the Stefanski offense; the big tall deep threat (whether or not it's Josh Gordon, the Browns want a WR like that).
This is really basic, and I've repeated it hundreds of times, but nobody seems to get it:
That big, T A L L, fast vertical threat guy, with the massive catch-radius and great hands makes a huge difference for any offense (with a strong-armed QB).
That's not OBJ DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
A safety AND cornerback can be running step-for-step with this guy and it doesn't matter! He out-muscles, out-reaches, out-jumps them. Then he powers out of their tackle attempts and goes all the way with it.
He might have to slow down or leap or bully his way left or right for an imperfect pass, but he's bigger, faster, and taller than the guys trying to cover him, and he gets it done.
That's NOT OBJ.
It could be Rodney Ratleyfield (sorta; he's not that big or strong, but he's got blistering speed and quickness), but tell Andrew Berry for me:
1: Sign Jadeveon Clowney (if you can trust him)
2: Sign Josh Gordon
3: Draft a skyscraper deep threat WR.
4: Consider a 2021 1st round pick (and 2020 3rd rounder) for OBJ.
5: Ditto for Kareem Hunt.
Ok get all that to Andrew asap (I still can't reach him for some reason. Their IT people really suck) okbye
Before I get back into my half-assed Browns mock draft, Jadeveon Clowney has lowered his axing price to 17-18 mil/year.
That's overdue. Clowney racked up three sacks last season, and has never lived up to his first overall draft status. His last two contracts were one-year "prove it" deals, and he hasn't proven much.
To be sure, Clowney is a really good player. PFF rates him 80 overall, in the high 70's vs the pass and run, and elite in coverage. He's actually similar to Olivier Vernon, except younger, healthier, and a little better.
But he was drafted to terrorize opposing Quarterbacks, just like Myles Garrett was, and he hasn't done that.
This is why 20 million was rediculous, and even 17 million is too much.
However, he's coming closer...
I just read a bad article which said that apparently the Browns were going to "have to" pay Olivier Vernon his 15.5 mil for 2020, right?
Well...even if Clowney does get his 17 mil, that's only 1.5 mil more than Vernon!
Clowney is healthier, 4 years younger, and better. Wouldn't you pay the extra 9.5% to upgrade and cover that other edge slot for 3-4 years?
The market is what it is. Both Free Agency and the draft are thin on edge-rushers, and like it or not, for anyone who can't draft Young, Clowney is the best available.
Again, guarantee the front end and pay the most in the first season. He becomes tradable in 2021 and releasable in 2022, while his cap hit shrinks relative to the market.
Why would I do this for a guy who only got 3 sacks last season?
The PFF grades are accurate. He gets tackles for losses, bats passes, rushes throws, and can cover. He's not the QB nightmare Myles Garrett is, but he's just an excellent all-around player who would benefit as a passrusher from having Myles Garrett opposite him.
He's got to have a chip on his shoulder after 2 one-year contracts, and now being compelled to accept less money than he feels he's worth.
He might go apeshit. He sure as hell is physically capable of it (he's a freak; remarkably similar to Myles Garrett).
Like the Offense doesn't need another Joe Thomas, the Defense doesn't need another Myles Garrett. If Clowney could get 6-7 sacks, continue to dominate vs the run, bat passes, blow things up in the backfield, and hurry Quarterbacks, that works.
So as long as I'm fantasizing, I'll say that by the time they draft, the Browns will have spent one more mil or so to replace Vernon with Clowney.
In that case, I won't risk the raw Terrell Lewis with his injury history with my 39th overall pick. So so far, we have LT Josh Jones or Ezra Cleveland, and LB Patrick Queen in the first round (Zack Baun could replace Queen).
At 39th overall...it's getting too unpredictable for me here. Will S Delpit still be there? Is Dugger the better player? Who is best available?
I'll go with Delpit I guess. The Browns need a FREE Safety at this point (assuming they don't do the obvious and re-sign Rodney Randallfield, who is by far the best FA Safety still available.)
But you can't allow need to trump talent. Delpit can play Free Safety and ranks the highest, but takes poor angles in tackling, and isn't a hitter.
Terrell Lewis might be the pick after all--or a disruptive DT, or a freaky wide receiver.
Ok I suck at mock drafts so sue me. Thanks to me, you got 4 more picks in the 2nd and 3rd round to go with your new Left Tackle and a stud linebacker and Jadeveon Clowney.
And by the way, I know Woods said he'd run a 4-3 but with Billings, Richardson and Clowney he could mix in some 3-4s. Clowney can and has played linebacker.
Anyway unless they sign Randall, the 2020 Browns will have Sendejo at Free Safety with little depth behind him.
What the hell is wrong with Randall!?! Am I the only one who noticed that Gregg Williams and Steve Wilks are different people who run different systems?
You think Randall just sorta forgot how to play football between 2018 and 2019? And 2+2=5?
Andrew? -snap-snap Andrew? Anybody home?
John Breech thinks the Browns should trade for Patriots guard Joe Thuney.
NOT. Thuney is a terrific young player, but he's tagged at almost 15 mil/year and would require an extention in that range. He'd have to move from Left to Right Guard, and Lord Insideous will demand at least a high second round pick and then some.
Belichick is rebuilding. He franchised Thuney so that he could trade him. He's got cap issues, and has little hope of holding onto this player beyond 2020.
The Browns will probably draft a guard to challenge Teller and Forbes for the Right Guard slot.
Forbes, a converted Left Tackle, was challenging to start when he was injured in preseason. Teller had a rough start when he took over RG, but rapidly improved, and was doing a good job by the end of the season.
You can't pay your Offensive Line over 30% of your salary cap. You can't throw your draft picks around like confetti. You have to accept that not all of your starting players can be all-pros. That's exactly why the salary cap (and the rookie salary structure) exist.
Another Editor's nephew or beer buddy wants me to quit talking about trading OBJ.
I do hear him: OBJ played hurt in 2019, and we haven't seen him at his best. He's been one of the 2-5 best WRs in the NFL for several seasons, and is still in his prime.
This writer thinks that in the current market (with the draft jam-packed with WRs), the most the Browns could get for OBJ is a 2nd round pick.
That is logical, and makes sense. It would also have been logical and made sense to NOT trade 17th overall and Jabrill Peppers and another draft pick for OBJ, but Dorsey did it anyway.
Some GM is likely to cough up a 1st round pick (or multiple picks, and/or a 2021 1st-rounder and stuff) for this proven veteran he can count on (even though he's missed over 33% of his carreer games to injuries).
Yeah I know: It's stupid. But it happens over and over.
Of course, if this writer is right (ie that a 2nd round pick is all Berry could get for OBJ) I'm with him: KEEP him. His salary is irrelevant for 2020 and he's a great weapon...
My issues with OBJ are with the type of WR he is (compared to Landry; scheme fit) and his injury history.
If this writer is right that nobody will be dumb enough to cough up more than one 2nd round pick for him, we cross our fingers and hope he stays healthy for once, and kicks ass again, and then trade him (and his salary) for a plethora of draft picks.
This writer also thinks that the Browns kinda have to stick with Olivier Vernon, since they haven't yet been able to replace him (or what he could do when healthy).
He's 31. He's missed big chunks of his last THREE seasons with redundant ankle and knee injuries. At this point, Chad Thomas has a brighter 2020 future than Olivier Vernon.
Vernon is breaking down, and will never be as good as he was, even if he can manage to stay healthy for 3 games in a row.
(Excuse me)...yes, Captain Obvious concurs.
Pete Smith again (I love you man!):
The 2020 Browns aren't forced to overpay free agents because they expect the Browns to suck.
Jack Conklin could have made lots more somewhere else, and Hooper's contract was a tad high, but mostly in line with the most recent cap increase.
The team isn't interested in dumbasses in the first place, and intelligent players can differentiate Stefanski from Jackson/Kitchens, haven't written off Baker Mayfield, and are aware of the talent already on this roster.
Jedeveon Clowney might take less to play opposite Myles Garrett, and on the other side of a run-oriented offense supporting Baker Mayfield.
That ought to mean fewer snaps for him to play, and more of those snaps having the opposing offense trying to come back.
I have no idea how smart Jadeveon Clowney is, but if he is sentient, Andrew Berry should be able to sign him.
