Speaking of Dorsey draft picks, now that Derrick Willies broke his collarbone, Dameion Ratley should not only be on the active roster, but get on the field this sunday.
Landry is obviously the top go-to receiver. Duke should be in-line for more reps as a wide receiver. Rod Streater is a solid journeyman.
Callaway is obviously a lethal weapon, but seems to have forgotten how to catch, and has had his reps reduced until he can prove he has re-mastered this most important of all wide receiver skills.
As Dan Labbe mentions in the linked article, Baker Mayfield and Dameion Ratley have practiced together a lot on the second and third teams. Todd Haley can't fail to consider that chemistry between the two as he decides how to fill in the gaps, and who to put on the field.
Ratley was impressive throughout camp. As I've mentioned ad-nauseum, Ratley is a skinny Josh Gordon (except for the issues).
Gordon is maybe part of an inch taller, but the catch radii, speed, suddenness, and hands all match.
Ratley slid in the draft due to inexperience and skinniness, but nobody questioned his talent (or stats).
He's now had a full training camp (*with Baker Mayfield*) and five more weeks of practice (*3 more with Mayfield*).
Todd Haley has been using Jarvis Landry like he used Antonio Brown, and the two athletes are similar, except Landry is more physical.
Opposing defenses must treat him as the guy to stop. They know Ratley is dangerous, but also that he's a skinny rookie, so they'll probably try to mug him at the line and put a lid on Landry.
Baker Mayfield will tear any zone-defense a new one. Casey Hayward is the real deal in man, but there's only one of him. They might put him on Ratley (he's definitely an "X"), and roll to Landry, but that's still single-coverage, and:
Ratley/Mayfield have practiced against top-flight cornerbacks in a Gregg Williams jam-heavy scheme, and beaten it (as often as it beat them) in practice.
We need to adapt to the new paradigm here: Baker Mayfield can thread a needle, and Ratley has a great catch-radius.
No listen: Baker sees Ratley jammed and checks down at light-speed, then down again...then looks back at Ratley, then (if neccessary) to his fourth checkdown...if Mayfield has (or buys himself) five seconds, well...ask Hanford Dixon: No cornerback can man-cover any wide receiver for that long, so...
Honestly, I rely on other guys to break down upcoming opponents for me, and I don't know the details of the Chargers' coverage scheme yet.
On one "expert pick" site I checked out, all three "experts" picked the Chargers.
Generally, they expected that even sans Bosa, the Chargers' passrush would monkey-wrench Mayfield, and that the Chargers' River-led offense wouldn't cough up the ball as much as the Browns FIVE previous opponents have (...?)
And of course special teams.
YEP! I concur on that one!
However, it shouldn't boil down to special teams. Baker Mayfield already has over 1.5 games worth of real experience! He's a VETERAN now!
Des Harrison is another quick study who these guys are selling way short, and who I repeat did better vs Terrelle Suggs than the majority of left tackles Suggs has faced...in his fifth ever NFL start.
And (this is the obvious point which I saved for last):
The Ravens defense is at least in the top five in the NFL, and despite multiple drops, bad calls, sacks, blown routes, etc Baker found a way to win!
I'm penciling a "w" in this week vs the Chargers, based on team-talent, coaching (*you know this doesn't include Jackson, right?*), home field, and a wash at quarterback.
If you just rolled your eyes over that "wash" at quarterback, consider the taste slapped out of your mouth.
Rivers is great, but Mayfield will go toe-to-toe with him, like he did with Flacco. It's not exactly fair, since Mayfield has better talent surrounding him, but Baker is a six-quarter veteran now, and is primed to go apeshit:
Browns 77, Bolts 9...oh sorry I forgot the zebras:
Browns 63, Bolts 12.
Friday, October 12, 2018
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Early Returns on John Dorsey's 2018 Rookie Class: Maybe His Best Ever.
It's wayyyy too soon (by three years, really) to judge John Dorsey's first Browns' draft class, but five games in, we have enough to make some educated guesses about several of these players.
I'm naturally including John's undrafted free agents here, the most prominant of which is starting left tackle Desmond Harrison.
To read most articles on the Browns vs Ravens game (including one by a PFF writer), you'd think that Terrell Suggs punked him out.
Ok build your altar to this venerable future Hall of Fame inductee, but please keep it in your garage, basement, or bathroom. Suggs "beat" Des several times, but Des stifled Suggs several times; did better vs Suggs than most left tackles do.
That's boring for an experienced left tackle, but Harrison is an undrafted rookie DO YOU UNDERSTAND!?! Why can't you people see things in context?
Mayfield? CHECK. Ward? CHECK. Nick Chubb shows great promise (needs to block better).
Like Harrison, Callaway is already a credible NFL starter, with stratospheric upside, way ahead of schedule.
Don't get me started on Genard Avery.
Dameion Ratley looked great in preseason, and IMO is a stud in-waiting.
Austin Corbett was NOT a "miss", regardless of where he was drafted. His "floor" is about the same as Bitonio's, and so is his cieling. The only issue with Corbett is at which position he will start in 2019.
Not sure about Chad Thomas, but other people rave about him so...
Actually, while John Dorsey's drafts have always been good, he has missed on some guys (like everybody else).
This just might be the best draft class in his carreer to-date.
We'll know for sure after 2021. But so far, so good.
I'm naturally including John's undrafted free agents here, the most prominant of which is starting left tackle Desmond Harrison.
To read most articles on the Browns vs Ravens game (including one by a PFF writer), you'd think that Terrell Suggs punked him out.
Ok build your altar to this venerable future Hall of Fame inductee, but please keep it in your garage, basement, or bathroom. Suggs "beat" Des several times, but Des stifled Suggs several times; did better vs Suggs than most left tackles do.
That's boring for an experienced left tackle, but Harrison is an undrafted rookie DO YOU UNDERSTAND!?! Why can't you people see things in context?
Mayfield? CHECK. Ward? CHECK. Nick Chubb shows great promise (needs to block better).
Like Harrison, Callaway is already a credible NFL starter, with stratospheric upside, way ahead of schedule.
Don't get me started on Genard Avery.
Dameion Ratley looked great in preseason, and IMO is a stud in-waiting.
Austin Corbett was NOT a "miss", regardless of where he was drafted. His "floor" is about the same as Bitonio's, and so is his cieling. The only issue with Corbett is at which position he will start in 2019.
Not sure about Chad Thomas, but other people rave about him so...
Actually, while John Dorsey's drafts have always been good, he has missed on some guys (like everybody else).
This just might be the best draft class in his carreer to-date.
We'll know for sure after 2021. But so far, so good.
Sunday, October 7, 2018
The Best Team Won for a Change: Browns vs Ravens
It was not unreasonable to expect the Ravens to beat the Browns in First Energy Stadium.
I myself expected the Browns to lose this game.
But the BEST TEAM WON!!!
TALENT prevailed, for once!
Baker Mayfield changes everything. Go ahead and drop his passes. Let unblocked blitzers sack him. Miss extra points and field goals. It's water off a duck's back to him. He just "resets" and keeps slinging. The worse his supporting cast gets, the better HE gets!
This referee crew was vastly more competent (or less corrupt) than the one which last week turned a Browns win into a loss.
They went flag-happy for awhile, but when I saw the replays, I saw legit infractions more often than not. And when they did screw up, they screwed each team approximately equally.
Thank God Al Riveron never got the chance to overrule an obvious, irrefutable first down based on a second camera-angle EVERYBODY ELSE SAW...
But I digress:
Duke Johnson was the hero of that last drive. Carlos Hyde looked like Beast-Mode. The defense came through, and even remembered how to actually tackle after awhile.
Denzel Ward...WOW! He a MONSTER, man!
Just imagine how this will look when receivers actually start catching balls that hit them in both hands!
I have to mention here that Des Harrison did a nice job vs Terrell Suggs overall, and the interior line did great run-blocking. The former is great news. The latter is about fkng time!
How bout that Schobert huh? What an athlete! I had no idea!
Sadly, the Steelers and Bengals also won. Happily, the Browns get to play them!
I myself expected the Browns to lose this game.
But the BEST TEAM WON!!!
TALENT prevailed, for once!
Baker Mayfield changes everything. Go ahead and drop his passes. Let unblocked blitzers sack him. Miss extra points and field goals. It's water off a duck's back to him. He just "resets" and keeps slinging. The worse his supporting cast gets, the better HE gets!
This referee crew was vastly more competent (or less corrupt) than the one which last week turned a Browns win into a loss.
They went flag-happy for awhile, but when I saw the replays, I saw legit infractions more often than not. And when they did screw up, they screwed each team approximately equally.
Thank God Al Riveron never got the chance to overrule an obvious, irrefutable first down based on a second camera-angle EVERYBODY ELSE SAW...
But I digress:
Duke Johnson was the hero of that last drive. Carlos Hyde looked like Beast-Mode. The defense came through, and even remembered how to actually tackle after awhile.
Denzel Ward...WOW! He a MONSTER, man!
Just imagine how this will look when receivers actually start catching balls that hit them in both hands!
I have to mention here that Des Harrison did a nice job vs Terrell Suggs overall, and the interior line did great run-blocking. The former is great news. The latter is about fkng time!
How bout that Schobert huh? What an athlete! I had no idea!
Sadly, the Steelers and Bengals also won. Happily, the Browns get to play them!
Friday, October 5, 2018
Browns vs Ravens, Genard Avery, Gregg Williams, Todd Haley, and Reality
The bad news is that Chris Kirksey and James Burgess are likely to miss the Ravens game with injuries. The good news is that Gregg Williams will be forced to play a better linebacker: Genard Avery.
I've been trying to figure out why Gregg seems reluctant to put Avery on the field more often.
Avery is, of course, a rookie, and rookies make mistakes, so certainly that's one factor. The timing might actually be right for Avery's starting debut, as he now has four games under his belt.
As I've posted before (with difficulty because I really like the guy) Christian Kirksey is actually not even average per PFF. In fact, James Burgess grades out pretty well (higher than Chris).
But Avery is better than both of them. He's bigger, stronger, faster, and quicker too.
I don't believe coverage is an issue. For one thing, Avery was pretty good (if "inconsistent") in college; projecting to be better than both these other guys (who are below average in coverage).
For another thing, MLB Joe Schobert is apparently the main coverage linebacker (maybe with Jamie Collins) this year.
Avery is a terrific passrusher, strongly resembling a faster, less psychotic James Harrison (as I've posted).
Harrison was a 3-4 outside linebacker, and that's also really Avery's best position--but he's fully capable of playing any position in any scheme well.
All of this is repetitive for the few of you who read this Blog over time (sorry bout that) but it's important right now.
Genard Avery is going to become a GREAT NFL player, as good or better than James Harrison, and that could start this sunday vs the Ratbirds.
It's kind of the perfect storm. He's now been through camp and played parts of four games in Gregg's system. In the comparatively few reps he's had, he's made a real impact.
As his scouting reports point out, he's not perfect (yet), and Gregg seems to have been easing him in to the "starting" role while also using him as a dedicated situational edge-rusher.
With Ogbah healthy again, and Ogunjobi doing his Warren Sapp imitation, Williams is trying to cut down on blitzes now...and that's probably another reason that Williams replaced Kirksey with Burgess instead of Avery...
Gregg might tweak things vs the Ravens to max out Avery as a passrusher; I think he might use more 3-4 "looks", ie (what I would do):
1: Base the defensive line on three players: Garrett, Ogunjobi, and Ogbah. This neccessarily places Garrett and Ogunjobi in the B-gaps, but moves them closer to Flacco, and they athleticly overmatch every guard in the NFL.
2: ROTATE Smith, (former Raven) Davis, and Thomas in (I repeat: Gregg IS dumb to run Garrett and Ogunjobi into the ground like he did vs the Raiders. They were SHOT! One-gap defensive linemen HAVE TO BE rested--they do wind-sprints against resistance on every snap!)
3: Use Collins, Schobert, and Avery at linebacker.
I know this describes a 3-3 nickel, but that's really a base set in 2018, and that will apply to the Ravens offense this week.
At any time, Collins can turn it into a 4-man front by putting his hand in the dirt outside a tackle, and of course Avery can attack the pocket from anywhere, so you can have your 4-man "big people" passrush without taking anybody out of coverage.
As I've repeated ad-nauseum, Gregg Williams leans hard on a "big" nickel with a Peppers or a Kindred playing like a souped-up run-and-hit linebacker, and a Damarius Randall trying to keep a lid on the whole thing.
The Superbowl Seahawks did a lot of what Gregg Williams is doing now.
4: Rotate the defensive linemen.
5: Rotate the defensive linemen. In short yardage situations, former Raven Carl Davis is a legitimate two-gap space-eating nose tackle who can actually move around and tackle people too.
Chris Smith and Chad Thomas are defensive tackle/end hybrids ideally suited to spell Garrett and Ogbah (especially on the aforementioned short yardage downs).
Gregg, I know you want your best players on the field as often as possible, but this is getting out of hand, okay? You are KILLING these guys!
6: Rotate the defensive linemen so they can do more than fall on their faces at crunch-time. (and Gregg have your IT people fix that issue that kicks back my texts and emails back as "undeliverable" okay? I could have saved you a lot of trouble last week!)
Don't get me wrong: I am second-guessing Gregg Williams on this issue. Yep.
The 2018 Ravens are not as overrrated as they usually are, and this will be a tough game.
The Ravens defense is excellent, at every level, and in every way. (Oh goodie! Jimmy Smith just got back too!)
This Ravens defense is possibly the best in the NFL (Just the facts, man--deal with it).
That's why in my last post I suggested that Todd Haley do something revolutianary and outlandish like running a (Chubb/Johnson) two-back offense.
Hear me out: The Ravens defense has stuffed (or destroyed) every offense they have faced (except for the Bengals)...oh wait...
I just checked that out: Mixon was healthy, and averaged 4 YPC, and Bernard 4.5 on 6 carries. These two caught five passes for around 20 yards.
They capped AJ Green off at 69 yards (except he got 3 TDs), but Tyler Boyd got 91.
Interestingly, 3 Bengal tight ends caught 7 passes for 79 yards.
This is instructive here, because the Bengals resemble the Browns in 2018 (except our AJ Green is in New England now dammit).
The Bengals (like everybody else) run a single-back offense with 3-4 wides.
That worked out pretty well for them vs the Ravens, but they ran the ball 27 times. It helped that they led the scoring for much of the game, and that the Bengals own defense did a good job.
The Bengals threw 24 passes, so they were "run-heavy" in this game.
Todd Haley will probably see this, and try to run the ball on the Ravens. He still needs to protect his embryonic left tackle Desmond Harrison, and has a good run-blocking offensive line otherwise.
But he doesn't have Cinci's wide receivers now that Gordon is gone. There is no AJ Green here. Callaway is certainly like Tyler Boyd/Ross, and Landry is better than advertized, but there's no skyscraper deep threat here (yet: Damion Ratley should become one).
I wouldn't try to copy the Bengals if I were me. Callaway (even more than everybody else) has the dropsies, and the current Browns wide receivers don't match the Bengals.
Yep. You got it: Go two-back (like I said).
(Redundancy alert) Chubb/Johnson to the huddle demands either a base defense or a big nickel. It would be a big nickel for the Ravens, as they would assume that Duke would go to the slot and become a wide receiver.
But then what if he lines up in the backfield? OMG! Two running backs in the backfield!?! At the same time? No fullbacks? This does not compute!
Referring back to Bengals vs Ravens, Andy Dalton dinked and dunked underneath for most of the game. Baker Mayfield can do that.
Two running backs are two potential bodyguards, as well as two potential outlet receivers. In play-action, the guy you fake the handoff to becomes a receiver, and blows the doors off the guy who had to come up to stuff him.
The two-back allows for three receivers, and these would usually be Landry, Callaway, and Njoku. I know you're not used to hearing this, but these are three scary guys.
Usually, the free safety needs to hang back, especially vs a Baker Mayfield, who always looks deep first, and can hit tiny windows. This is not optional vs Baker Mayfield. That free safety HAS TO stay deep.
The Ravens will still be able to put seven "in the box" to stuff the run and disrupt crossing patterns, but let's let Baker Mayfield do what Brian Sipe (and Bernie Kosar) did:
Check down to that impossible-to-account-for running back in the flats; uncovered and in space, with lots of green grass in front of him.
Infante called these dumpoffs "long handoffs". That's accurate: The running back got the ball outside, uncovered and at-speed, behind the line of scrimmage, "in space".
The best any defense could/can do to "cover" this is to "spy" it and have a safety or linebacker kinda mirror him, and then try to nail him in space without help.
Gregg Pruitt was a human pinball, but the much-less talented Earnest Byner did the same thing to opposing defenses later.
Todd Haley: ditto the IT suggestion I made to Gregg about that glitch, but no doubt you read this Blog, so let Nick Chubb out of his cage, put Duke Johnson next to him, and let Mayfield do the Sipe thing here.
Much has been made of Nick Chubb's spectacular performance vs the Raiders (I guesstimate he averages around 24 ypc now, and like one TD every 3 carries).
Nick no doubt needs work in pass-protection, but is clearly a better ball-carrier than Hyde. I'm close to second-guessing Haley here:
Baker Mayfield gets rid of the ball as quickly as almost any QB in the NFL. Todd, I know you had Kurt Warner and the "Greatest Show on Turf" once.
You were a creative innovator then; you saw saw opportunities and soft spots and built an offense around your talent to exploit the blockheads.
Then you made Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Ebineezer Bell what they are, but what are you NOW?
RUN A TWO-BACK WITH CHUBB AND DUKE. I can guarantee you that Duke can lead-block like Byner did for Mack, and bet you Chubb can return the favor.
Todd, you haven't become a blockhead, have you? Belichick is a lot older than you, ya know?
You want your best players on the field amap, right? Aren't Johnson and Chubb two of those?
I can see DeValve with (or instead of) Njoku, but aren't you a little light on proven veteran wide receivers here? Last week, these clowns dropped seven passes! Duke only dropped ONE! Same as Landry. Callaway dropped THREE (I think).
Jeez put Callaway on probation and Higgins on-deck and USE Duke Johnson as a receiver and maybe give Ratley a shot.
Honest, you guys: The bulk of this aint rocket science. Bill Belichick is a genius, but most of what he's done was uncommon sense.
But he doesn't COPY anybody else, see? Everybody else copies HIM!
Aw crap nevermind: Todd Haley and Gregg Williams need to max out the players they have, in their own way, period.
Hue Jackson is on the hot seat. He should have been fired when Dorsey was hired, but in previous posts I've explained why Haslam had no choice but to retain him.
Hue sucks, and so does the Special Teams guy (Dorsey did that, I think. Nobody's perfect here).
Come to think of it, I figure DePodesta would have fired Jackson, NOT hired a bottom five special teams coach, drafted Mayfield not sure about Ward over Chubb--but then Gregg Williams had a vote---yeah it would have been Ward anyway.
I bet you Genard Avery was a DePodesta pick, along with Ratley. Nick Chubb (where he was drafted) has Paul's fingerprints all over it.
But I digress.
I think the Browns are more talented than the Ravens, and should beat them, but Hue is still the Head Coach, the zebras are still the zebras, the Browns are still young, and the Ravens do look real scary.
The Browns SHOULD beat the Ravens, but Baker Mayfield keeps hitting recievers in their hands, and that's been a big problem so far.
Maybe they're in shock.
I've been trying to figure out why Gregg seems reluctant to put Avery on the field more often.
Avery is, of course, a rookie, and rookies make mistakes, so certainly that's one factor. The timing might actually be right for Avery's starting debut, as he now has four games under his belt.
As I've posted before (with difficulty because I really like the guy) Christian Kirksey is actually not even average per PFF. In fact, James Burgess grades out pretty well (higher than Chris).
But Avery is better than both of them. He's bigger, stronger, faster, and quicker too.
I don't believe coverage is an issue. For one thing, Avery was pretty good (if "inconsistent") in college; projecting to be better than both these other guys (who are below average in coverage).
For another thing, MLB Joe Schobert is apparently the main coverage linebacker (maybe with Jamie Collins) this year.
Avery is a terrific passrusher, strongly resembling a faster, less psychotic James Harrison (as I've posted).
Harrison was a 3-4 outside linebacker, and that's also really Avery's best position--but he's fully capable of playing any position in any scheme well.
All of this is repetitive for the few of you who read this Blog over time (sorry bout that) but it's important right now.
Genard Avery is going to become a GREAT NFL player, as good or better than James Harrison, and that could start this sunday vs the Ratbirds.
It's kind of the perfect storm. He's now been through camp and played parts of four games in Gregg's system. In the comparatively few reps he's had, he's made a real impact.
As his scouting reports point out, he's not perfect (yet), and Gregg seems to have been easing him in to the "starting" role while also using him as a dedicated situational edge-rusher.
With Ogbah healthy again, and Ogunjobi doing his Warren Sapp imitation, Williams is trying to cut down on blitzes now...and that's probably another reason that Williams replaced Kirksey with Burgess instead of Avery...
Gregg might tweak things vs the Ravens to max out Avery as a passrusher; I think he might use more 3-4 "looks", ie (what I would do):
1: Base the defensive line on three players: Garrett, Ogunjobi, and Ogbah. This neccessarily places Garrett and Ogunjobi in the B-gaps, but moves them closer to Flacco, and they athleticly overmatch every guard in the NFL.
2: ROTATE Smith, (former Raven) Davis, and Thomas in (I repeat: Gregg IS dumb to run Garrett and Ogunjobi into the ground like he did vs the Raiders. They were SHOT! One-gap defensive linemen HAVE TO BE rested--they do wind-sprints against resistance on every snap!)
3: Use Collins, Schobert, and Avery at linebacker.
I know this describes a 3-3 nickel, but that's really a base set in 2018, and that will apply to the Ravens offense this week.
At any time, Collins can turn it into a 4-man front by putting his hand in the dirt outside a tackle, and of course Avery can attack the pocket from anywhere, so you can have your 4-man "big people" passrush without taking anybody out of coverage.
As I've repeated ad-nauseum, Gregg Williams leans hard on a "big" nickel with a Peppers or a Kindred playing like a souped-up run-and-hit linebacker, and a Damarius Randall trying to keep a lid on the whole thing.
The Superbowl Seahawks did a lot of what Gregg Williams is doing now.
4: Rotate the defensive linemen.
5: Rotate the defensive linemen. In short yardage situations, former Raven Carl Davis is a legitimate two-gap space-eating nose tackle who can actually move around and tackle people too.
Chris Smith and Chad Thomas are defensive tackle/end hybrids ideally suited to spell Garrett and Ogbah (especially on the aforementioned short yardage downs).
Gregg, I know you want your best players on the field as often as possible, but this is getting out of hand, okay? You are KILLING these guys!
6: Rotate the defensive linemen so they can do more than fall on their faces at crunch-time. (and Gregg have your IT people fix that issue that kicks back my texts and emails back as "undeliverable" okay? I could have saved you a lot of trouble last week!)
Don't get me wrong: I am second-guessing Gregg Williams on this issue. Yep.
The 2018 Ravens are not as overrrated as they usually are, and this will be a tough game.
The Ravens defense is excellent, at every level, and in every way. (Oh goodie! Jimmy Smith just got back too!)
This Ravens defense is possibly the best in the NFL (Just the facts, man--deal with it).
That's why in my last post I suggested that Todd Haley do something revolutianary and outlandish like running a (Chubb/Johnson) two-back offense.
Hear me out: The Ravens defense has stuffed (or destroyed) every offense they have faced (except for the Bengals)...oh wait...
I just checked that out: Mixon was healthy, and averaged 4 YPC, and Bernard 4.5 on 6 carries. These two caught five passes for around 20 yards.
They capped AJ Green off at 69 yards (except he got 3 TDs), but Tyler Boyd got 91.
Interestingly, 3 Bengal tight ends caught 7 passes for 79 yards.
This is instructive here, because the Bengals resemble the Browns in 2018 (except our AJ Green is in New England now dammit).
The Bengals (like everybody else) run a single-back offense with 3-4 wides.
That worked out pretty well for them vs the Ravens, but they ran the ball 27 times. It helped that they led the scoring for much of the game, and that the Bengals own defense did a good job.
The Bengals threw 24 passes, so they were "run-heavy" in this game.
Todd Haley will probably see this, and try to run the ball on the Ravens. He still needs to protect his embryonic left tackle Desmond Harrison, and has a good run-blocking offensive line otherwise.
But he doesn't have Cinci's wide receivers now that Gordon is gone. There is no AJ Green here. Callaway is certainly like Tyler Boyd/Ross, and Landry is better than advertized, but there's no skyscraper deep threat here (yet: Damion Ratley should become one).
I wouldn't try to copy the Bengals if I were me. Callaway (even more than everybody else) has the dropsies, and the current Browns wide receivers don't match the Bengals.
Yep. You got it: Go two-back (like I said).
(Redundancy alert) Chubb/Johnson to the huddle demands either a base defense or a big nickel. It would be a big nickel for the Ravens, as they would assume that Duke would go to the slot and become a wide receiver.
But then what if he lines up in the backfield? OMG! Two running backs in the backfield!?! At the same time? No fullbacks? This does not compute!
Referring back to Bengals vs Ravens, Andy Dalton dinked and dunked underneath for most of the game. Baker Mayfield can do that.
Two running backs are two potential bodyguards, as well as two potential outlet receivers. In play-action, the guy you fake the handoff to becomes a receiver, and blows the doors off the guy who had to come up to stuff him.
The two-back allows for three receivers, and these would usually be Landry, Callaway, and Njoku. I know you're not used to hearing this, but these are three scary guys.
Usually, the free safety needs to hang back, especially vs a Baker Mayfield, who always looks deep first, and can hit tiny windows. This is not optional vs Baker Mayfield. That free safety HAS TO stay deep.
The Ravens will still be able to put seven "in the box" to stuff the run and disrupt crossing patterns, but let's let Baker Mayfield do what Brian Sipe (and Bernie Kosar) did:
Check down to that impossible-to-account-for running back in the flats; uncovered and in space, with lots of green grass in front of him.
Infante called these dumpoffs "long handoffs". That's accurate: The running back got the ball outside, uncovered and at-speed, behind the line of scrimmage, "in space".
The best any defense could/can do to "cover" this is to "spy" it and have a safety or linebacker kinda mirror him, and then try to nail him in space without help.
Gregg Pruitt was a human pinball, but the much-less talented Earnest Byner did the same thing to opposing defenses later.
Todd Haley: ditto the IT suggestion I made to Gregg about that glitch, but no doubt you read this Blog, so let Nick Chubb out of his cage, put Duke Johnson next to him, and let Mayfield do the Sipe thing here.
Much has been made of Nick Chubb's spectacular performance vs the Raiders (I guesstimate he averages around 24 ypc now, and like one TD every 3 carries).
Nick no doubt needs work in pass-protection, but is clearly a better ball-carrier than Hyde. I'm close to second-guessing Haley here:
Baker Mayfield gets rid of the ball as quickly as almost any QB in the NFL. Todd, I know you had Kurt Warner and the "Greatest Show on Turf" once.
You were a creative innovator then; you saw saw opportunities and soft spots and built an offense around your talent to exploit the blockheads.
Then you made Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Ebineezer Bell what they are, but what are you NOW?
RUN A TWO-BACK WITH CHUBB AND DUKE. I can guarantee you that Duke can lead-block like Byner did for Mack, and bet you Chubb can return the favor.
Todd, you haven't become a blockhead, have you? Belichick is a lot older than you, ya know?
You want your best players on the field amap, right? Aren't Johnson and Chubb two of those?
I can see DeValve with (or instead of) Njoku, but aren't you a little light on proven veteran wide receivers here? Last week, these clowns dropped seven passes! Duke only dropped ONE! Same as Landry. Callaway dropped THREE (I think).
Jeez put Callaway on probation and Higgins on-deck and USE Duke Johnson as a receiver and maybe give Ratley a shot.
Honest, you guys: The bulk of this aint rocket science. Bill Belichick is a genius, but most of what he's done was uncommon sense.
But he doesn't COPY anybody else, see? Everybody else copies HIM!
Aw crap nevermind: Todd Haley and Gregg Williams need to max out the players they have, in their own way, period.
Hue Jackson is on the hot seat. He should have been fired when Dorsey was hired, but in previous posts I've explained why Haslam had no choice but to retain him.
Hue sucks, and so does the Special Teams guy (Dorsey did that, I think. Nobody's perfect here).
Come to think of it, I figure DePodesta would have fired Jackson, NOT hired a bottom five special teams coach, drafted Mayfield not sure about Ward over Chubb--but then Gregg Williams had a vote---yeah it would have been Ward anyway.
I bet you Genard Avery was a DePodesta pick, along with Ratley. Nick Chubb (where he was drafted) has Paul's fingerprints all over it.
But I digress.
I think the Browns are more talented than the Ravens, and should beat them, but Hue is still the Head Coach, the zebras are still the zebras, the Browns are still young, and the Ravens do look real scary.
The Browns SHOULD beat the Ravens, but Baker Mayfield keeps hitting recievers in their hands, and that's been a big problem so far.
Maybe they're in shock.
Thursday, October 4, 2018
Mayfield Is All That, Ravens Acid Test, Being "Mean", and the Browns
Baker Mayfield is getting lotsa love from NFL experts.
Yes, you can take those comments from pending opponents with a grain of salt, but there is still substance in their statements.
He does get rid of the ball quickly, is far more advanced than most rookies, and can't be intimidated.
Terry Pluto called him "by far" the best quarterback since the "new" Browns era began. That's wrong, because Tim Couch was a terrific quarterback until chronic tendinitis and related injuries wrecked his right arm.
I do think Mayfield is better than Couch, but it bothers me when guys just lump Couch in with the rest of those guys: "By far" is inaccurate and unfair to Couch.
But Pluto is right about this game vs the high-flying ratbirds being the real "beginning" for him as a starter.
That Ravens defense is dominating right now, and they especially like squishing inexperienced quarterbacks like bugs. This is his crucible; his acid test.
The Ravens are stuffing the run so far, but also screwing up quarterbacks. While Nick Chubb showed what he could do vs the Raiders, Baker can't count on much on the ground vs the Ravens.
Fortunately, Todd Haley is kind of an expert on this Ravens defense, and I would expect a solid game-plan...
Looks like Duke Johnson's 2018 coming out party to me! Time for that Lindy Infante "long handoff" passing game vs this defense--and if DeShone Kizer did it, I reckon Baker Mayfield can do it.
Sure, you have to actually play smashmouth a little, and go deep a little early in games, no matter who you are. You have to show that defense that you will attack them everywhere, regardless of the results.
But the Lindy Infante stuff is a huge monkey-wrench for any defense.
Again, somebody please tell Todd Haley to get with his IT people, as none of my advisory texts and emails are reaching him for some reason.
And while you're at it, tell him this:
Run more two-backs with Duke and Chubb. Consider Duke Earnest Byner and Chubb Kevin Mack.
In 2018, nobody wants to run two-backs, but that's a mere fad. For once (since Infante) can a Browns coach LEAD instead of copy?
The Ravens will get in the backfield and disrupt eveything, while man-covering all the receivers.
Except one of the running backs. They CAN'T man up on a running back! Running backs lined up in the backfield (or even in the slot) are always open...IMMEDIATELY.
The best defenses are fast, and are looking for these underneath dinks and dunks, but they have to mostly concede the reception and converge on it to stop it there (sometimes for a net loss).
But in Chubb and Duke, the Browns have two guys who WILL catch that pass, and turn it into a huge play if they make one guy miss (or run him over).
You can't stop everything. The Ravens defense can stuff runs and conventional passes, but they can't prevent Chubb or Duke from catching perfect passes from Mayfield in-stride and with green grass in front of them.
I think Todd Haley will see this for himself, since he's the guy who let Ebineezer Bell become who he became. But Todd isn't quite like Lindy Infante, and his "default" with a two-back might be one running back in the slot and never both backs in the backfield.
Nobody does that! Two running backs actually lining up in the same backfield? And one isn't a big ponderous fullback? Inconceivable!
Well, Brian Sipe was a little like Baker Mayfield. He was actually shorter and smaller, and had a popgun arm, but he "processed" at light speed, was accurate, kept his cool, could improvise and buy time, etc.
Sipe's backs were Gregg and Mike Pruitt. Reggie Rucker, Dave Logan, and Ricky Feature (later Brian Brennan--not sure) were his wide receivers, and this guy named Newsome was his tight end.
No where in here can you find an outside deep threat.
Infante (who stuck around after Rutigliano into the Schottenheimer era) used first the Pruitts and then Byner/Mack in two-backs under Sipe then Kosar.
Lindy NEVER had a true outside deep threat, but he still always had prolific offenses. Gregg Pruitt, and then Earnest Byner, wrought havoc out of the BACKFIELD with their "long handoffs".
But that's out of style in 2018...nevermind.
I'm watching Thursday Night Football. Up 21-3 with time running out in the second half...vs the Colts...the Patriots offense kept attacking.
They only got a field goal, but now it's 24-3 going into the second half.
This is part of this "halftime adjustment" stuff faux experts talk about: This is Lord Insideous's way of saying "adjust to this!"
The Mayfield-led Browns should mirror this:
Don't just kneel and run out the clock at halftime, ever.
Go for the throat, all the time, if you have a quarterback who can pull it off.
Andrew Luck just made it 24-10 early in the second half. If Lord Insideous had pansied out in the first half, it would be 21-10...
Nobody gets it nevermind okbye
Wednesday, October 3, 2018
Browns Cornerbacks, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, and Stuff like that
If you run a lot of man coverage, young cornerbacks can prosper (see Ward, Denzel). Man cornerbacks' jobs are very simple: cover one guy. It's not very complicated, and generally, either you can do it right away, or you just plain can't.
That's why, while I agree that EJ Gaines is the most likely replacement for the injured Terrence Mitchell, I simply have to point out the existance of Jeremiah McKinnon again.
McKinnon can man-cover (and get interceptions too).
Gregg Williams mixes up his coverages, so it's not all press/man--but that is his preferred scheme, and corners can rotate in and out as easily as any other players.
McKinnon is not back on this roster to stand around on the sidelines. Don't ignore this guy.
The linked article also highlighted some alarming news: Suddenly, Brien Boddy-Calhoun has fallen down the depth-chart and performed poorly.
In 2017, this guy was one of the best slot corners in the NFL, but in 2018, he's...well, just...bad!
Boddy-Calhoun might be better at safety, but Randall is too good to take off the field.
Baker Mayfield is now the favorite (per Bovada) for NFL Rookie of the Year.
The smart money sees that Mayfield has a great supporting cast, and screwed up badly vs the Raiders, yet still engineered 42 points in a hostile environment.
Patrick Mahomes is making every other quarterback in the NFL look like a chump, but he's not a rookie. Yeah yeah the Browns could have had Mahomes (check back I wanted him! So did Dorsey (who drafted him) obviously). That was then this is now get over it.
Meanwhile, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen hit their predictable rookie walls (one of which was a Browns defense).
I think Josh Rosen or Saquon Barkley have shots at this award too. Rosen has a nice set of weapons and a good defense himself.
Don't get me wrong: I despise/revile Rosen as a person. But he is a really good quarterback.
Mayfield, though? I'm so glad he's our quarterback now, because we can really root for this guy! (So do his teammates).
I'm not one to say I told you so, but if I were, I'd tell you I told you that Nick Chubb is better than Carlos Hyde.
I predicted that Nick would be taking most of the running back snaps by game four. I was obviously wrong about that, but I'm not second-guessing Haley over it.
NFL running backs need to block in pass protection, especially in 2018. Chubb is probably already a good receiver, and obviously an accomplished runner, but picking up blitzes is more complicated than it looks, and Nick was probably still learning (plus Hyde has been pretty good).
...but Nick should be about ready to take over starting at running back now.
In my search to salvage Hue Jackson, I found a thread of hope in this article. Hue has kinda promised to fix special teams.
Since firing his pal Amos is as unthinkable to Jackson as it is to Dorsey (reminds you of the refs in Oakland, right?), this might conceivably be one thing Hue can do right for a change.
Like Hue, Amos is on life-support, and devoid of real credibility or leverage. Maybe...just maybe...Hue can make himself useful again by fixing special teams.
After all, could he make them worse?
That's why, while I agree that EJ Gaines is the most likely replacement for the injured Terrence Mitchell, I simply have to point out the existance of Jeremiah McKinnon again.
McKinnon can man-cover (and get interceptions too).
Gregg Williams mixes up his coverages, so it's not all press/man--but that is his preferred scheme, and corners can rotate in and out as easily as any other players.
McKinnon is not back on this roster to stand around on the sidelines. Don't ignore this guy.
The linked article also highlighted some alarming news: Suddenly, Brien Boddy-Calhoun has fallen down the depth-chart and performed poorly.
In 2017, this guy was one of the best slot corners in the NFL, but in 2018, he's...well, just...bad!
Boddy-Calhoun might be better at safety, but Randall is too good to take off the field.
Baker Mayfield is now the favorite (per Bovada) for NFL Rookie of the Year.
The smart money sees that Mayfield has a great supporting cast, and screwed up badly vs the Raiders, yet still engineered 42 points in a hostile environment.
Patrick Mahomes is making every other quarterback in the NFL look like a chump, but he's not a rookie. Yeah yeah the Browns could have had Mahomes (check back I wanted him! So did Dorsey (who drafted him) obviously). That was then this is now get over it.
Meanwhile, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen hit their predictable rookie walls (one of which was a Browns defense).
I think Josh Rosen or Saquon Barkley have shots at this award too. Rosen has a nice set of weapons and a good defense himself.
Don't get me wrong: I despise/revile Rosen as a person. But he is a really good quarterback.
Mayfield, though? I'm so glad he's our quarterback now, because we can really root for this guy! (So do his teammates).
I'm not one to say I told you so, but if I were, I'd tell you I told you that Nick Chubb is better than Carlos Hyde.
I predicted that Nick would be taking most of the running back snaps by game four. I was obviously wrong about that, but I'm not second-guessing Haley over it.
NFL running backs need to block in pass protection, especially in 2018. Chubb is probably already a good receiver, and obviously an accomplished runner, but picking up blitzes is more complicated than it looks, and Nick was probably still learning (plus Hyde has been pretty good).
...but Nick should be about ready to take over starting at running back now.
In my search to salvage Hue Jackson, I found a thread of hope in this article. Hue has kinda promised to fix special teams.
Since firing his pal Amos is as unthinkable to Jackson as it is to Dorsey (reminds you of the refs in Oakland, right?), this might conceivably be one thing Hue can do right for a change.
Like Hue, Amos is on life-support, and devoid of real credibility or leverage. Maybe...just maybe...Hue can make himself useful again by fixing special teams.
After all, could he make them worse?
Tuesday, October 2, 2018
Browns 42, Raiders and Referees 45. Just the Facts, Man.
There's a lot of blame to go around for why the Browns found a way to manage to somehow lose to the Raiders.
Baker Mayfield fumbled twice. But don't try to lay those interceptions on him. Hue Jackson said the receivers dropped nine passes. PFF said it was seven.
One of those was the pick six. Callaway slipped and fell AGAIN, and the ball went off his hands and into a pick six.
Ok ok it's a crappy field, and he's not the only one who was slipping and sliding, but just don't kneejerk blame the quarterback for that stuff!
But ok yeah he looked a little more like a rookie.
The defense turned into a screen door all of a sudden.
But the biggest reason why the Browns lost?
Obviously, bad calls by the referees!
Okay stop right there: Yes, Marshawn Lynch was NOT stopped. Quick whistle "in the grasp" what a load of crap. Might have been a touchdown.
But here's Hue jumping up and down trying to get the guy flagged for trying to kick the ball in frustration! "Wait! Screw him some MORE!" That is another nail in Hue's coffin (and embarrassing).
And that "roughing the passer" crap on that Raiders passrusher...well I don't even need to go on, do I?
But here we go: AS contact is made, Carr gets stripped by Avery (not Garrett btw) and Ogunjobi is on his way to the end zone with it but NOOOOO! "In the grasp" again! No whistle or anything...just "oh he got touched so it's over."
And Al Riveron can do his Judge Roberts imitation all he wants: Everybody on the planet saw what he saw, and saw that Carlos Hyde had that first down.
Even if you disagree, you can't overturn a ruling in the field without conclusive evidence--unless it's the Browns. This asshole is telling EVERYBODY ELSE (including his predecessor) that we didn't see what we saw, and that wasn't an OBVIOUS first down, and that this is conclusive evidence to overrule the first down ruling w t f is going ON around here gdammit!?!
Even if you call the bullshit Lynch call and the bullshit non-stripsack call a wash, that last bullshit make-it-up-as-you-go first down theft makes it Browns 42, Raiders and Referees 45.
No I hear you and you are correct: Why couldn't the defense stop the subsequent touchdown or 2-point conversion? How bout the conversion Callaway had dropped earlier? Didn't both of Mayfield's fumbles and one of his picks turn into three touchdowns?
Short field yeah I get it, but couldn't this defense have at least forced ONE field goal insstead of folding like a lawn chair!?!
Here come the Dirty Birds. Bring it!
They just kicked the Steelers' faces in, but that won't make the Browns grateful enough to...
...Which crew will referee the game? Are they going to let the players play?
Gotta admit Big Bird looks terrific and so does that Ravens defense. I know I said earlier that the Ravens are overrated (again) but I was slightly wrong.
But if the Bengals beat them, so can the Browns...
...will the Browns have the same special teams...?
The Browns will win if they stop dropping passes and Baker keeps both hands on the ball longer.
Nobody but me seems to have noticed the loss of starting cornerback Terrence Mitchell to injury. That's gonna sting a little, but thanks to Dorsey the Browns are deep at cornerback.
I hesitate to second-guess Gregg Williams, but think he should rotate his defensive linemen more. Obviously you want Ogunjobi and Garrett on the field as often as possible, but every single down?
He's got great depth here...parked on the bench, including on third and shorts. And it's Gregg Williams--Avery is a passrusher can't he just...
You can't treat defensive linemen like offensive linemen. You rotate them for a REASON.
If he doesn't take Garrett or Ogunjobi out at least a little, they're both gonna be shot in the fourth quarter, and one or both will get hurt.
And Avery is better than Kirksey, too.
Back to the Raiders: Give Beast-Mode and Derrick Carr their props: Carr took a lot of heat and overcame it repeatedly, and Lynch was...himself.
The Browns defense doesn't suck all of a sudden. You'll see that vs the Ravens.
THIS JUST IN: Thanks to Andrew Gribble, I know that the Browns have brought cornerback Jerrick McKinnon back to the active roster.
In case you live under a rock, this guy just tow it up throughout preseason, and I was stunned when he was released. I don't know if he can beat out Gaines or Carrie, but he has a real shot (especially now that he's pissed off).
Gribble also pointed out that you don't go for it on 4th down when you're up by eight points from your own 19 yard line with 1.5 minutes left in the game.
Duh.
Baker Mayfield fumbled twice. But don't try to lay those interceptions on him. Hue Jackson said the receivers dropped nine passes. PFF said it was seven.
One of those was the pick six. Callaway slipped and fell AGAIN, and the ball went off his hands and into a pick six.
Ok ok it's a crappy field, and he's not the only one who was slipping and sliding, but just don't kneejerk blame the quarterback for that stuff!
But ok yeah he looked a little more like a rookie.
The defense turned into a screen door all of a sudden.
But the biggest reason why the Browns lost?
Obviously, bad calls by the referees!
Okay stop right there: Yes, Marshawn Lynch was NOT stopped. Quick whistle "in the grasp" what a load of crap. Might have been a touchdown.
But here's Hue jumping up and down trying to get the guy flagged for trying to kick the ball in frustration! "Wait! Screw him some MORE!" That is another nail in Hue's coffin (and embarrassing).
And that "roughing the passer" crap on that Raiders passrusher...well I don't even need to go on, do I?
But here we go: AS contact is made, Carr gets stripped by Avery (not Garrett btw) and Ogunjobi is on his way to the end zone with it but NOOOOO! "In the grasp" again! No whistle or anything...just "oh he got touched so it's over."
And Al Riveron can do his Judge Roberts imitation all he wants: Everybody on the planet saw what he saw, and saw that Carlos Hyde had that first down.
Even if you disagree, you can't overturn a ruling in the field without conclusive evidence--unless it's the Browns. This asshole is telling EVERYBODY ELSE (including his predecessor) that we didn't see what we saw, and that wasn't an OBVIOUS first down, and that this is conclusive evidence to overrule the first down ruling w t f is going ON around here gdammit!?!
Even if you call the bullshit Lynch call and the bullshit non-stripsack call a wash, that last bullshit make-it-up-as-you-go first down theft makes it Browns 42, Raiders and Referees 45.
No I hear you and you are correct: Why couldn't the defense stop the subsequent touchdown or 2-point conversion? How bout the conversion Callaway had dropped earlier? Didn't both of Mayfield's fumbles and one of his picks turn into three touchdowns?
Short field yeah I get it, but couldn't this defense have at least forced ONE field goal insstead of folding like a lawn chair!?!
Here come the Dirty Birds. Bring it!
They just kicked the Steelers' faces in, but that won't make the Browns grateful enough to...
...Which crew will referee the game? Are they going to let the players play?
Gotta admit Big Bird looks terrific and so does that Ravens defense. I know I said earlier that the Ravens are overrated (again) but I was slightly wrong.
But if the Bengals beat them, so can the Browns...
...will the Browns have the same special teams...?
The Browns will win if they stop dropping passes and Baker keeps both hands on the ball longer.
Nobody but me seems to have noticed the loss of starting cornerback Terrence Mitchell to injury. That's gonna sting a little, but thanks to Dorsey the Browns are deep at cornerback.
I hesitate to second-guess Gregg Williams, but think he should rotate his defensive linemen more. Obviously you want Ogunjobi and Garrett on the field as often as possible, but every single down?
He's got great depth here...parked on the bench, including on third and shorts. And it's Gregg Williams--Avery is a passrusher can't he just...
You can't treat defensive linemen like offensive linemen. You rotate them for a REASON.
If he doesn't take Garrett or Ogunjobi out at least a little, they're both gonna be shot in the fourth quarter, and one or both will get hurt.
And Avery is better than Kirksey, too.
Back to the Raiders: Give Beast-Mode and Derrick Carr their props: Carr took a lot of heat and overcame it repeatedly, and Lynch was...himself.
The Browns defense doesn't suck all of a sudden. You'll see that vs the Ravens.
THIS JUST IN: Thanks to Andrew Gribble, I know that the Browns have brought cornerback Jerrick McKinnon back to the active roster.
In case you live under a rock, this guy just tow it up throughout preseason, and I was stunned when he was released. I don't know if he can beat out Gaines or Carrie, but he has a real shot (especially now that he's pissed off).
Gribble also pointed out that you don't go for it on 4th down when you're up by eight points from your own 19 yard line with 1.5 minutes left in the game.
Duh.
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