Vegas sets the under-over for Browns wins in 2018 at 4 1/2 games. I wish I had a hundred grand to put on the over.
The oddsmakers aren't making any predictions. They're just setting this line right where they think that half the betting public will take the high side, and half the low side.
This line is going to go up, once people start paying more attention and making actual wagers.
The Browns have the talent, and now the coaching, to compete with any team in the NFL, finally including two quarterbacks.
Let's just compare them with one Superbowl contender within their own Division:
Big Ben has to get the nod at quarterback, of course, but it's closer than you think. Context, remember?
1: Big Ben had a good pass-blocking offensive line, and Taylor did not.
2: Ben had really good wide receivers, and Taylor didn't.
3: Todd Haley was coaching Ben, and is now coaching Tyrod.
4: Taylor is a dual threat. His passing stats can't be viewed in a vaccuum.
5: With the Browns, Taylor will have a supporting cast similar to the Steelers': Better than he's had in his carreer.
Laveon Bell also must get the nod at running back, but the Browns have superior depth. The Steelers can't pay Ebineezer's rediculous asking price, and are resolved to lose him in 2019.
They're probably going to run him right into the ground to get the most out of him while he's still a Steeler. This won't matter in game one, but certainly could in game 16.
More context: Draft pick Nick Chubb has traits in common with Bell, and under Todd Haley could become much like him.
But the Browns offensive line is just as good as the Steelers'. The Browns tight ends are much better. (note to Tony Grossi: Darren Fells is possibly the best blocking tight end in the NFL).
The Steelers have not only Antonio Brown, but rising star Juju Smith-Shuster at wide receiver, but the Steelers' wideouts are still not any better than the Browns'.
Josh Gordon was THE BEST wide receiver in the NFL in his one 14-game season, with three different guys named Joe at quarterback, and against constant double-coverage.
And have you seen that guy lately? He's been eatin' his spinach! He's all rocked up--must be over 230 lbs!
And let's ask Mayfield and Taylor who they'd prefer: Smith-Shuster or Landry. They'd say Landry, because they can count on him! Big plays are great, but getting sacked or throwing the ball away sucks--every quarterback wants insurance, and that's Landry (well, and Duke Johnson, of course).
- Between Callaway, Coleman, Ratley and (yes) Higgins and Louis, two should emerge as a starter and primary backup. My early dart-throw is Callaway, but Coleman might rise to the challenge and hold on (unless Dorsey can get a good draft pick for him).
That's suddenly excellent depth; better than the Steelers have.
Summing up the comparison of the Steelers and Browns offenses, if everybody is healthy, the Steelers are still better, but not by much. If people start getting hurt, the Browns depth at every single position is superior.
More context: The Haley thing really matters. It was Todd Haley who turned Laveon Bell into the hybrid player he is, and who mixed in zone-blocking once he saw how Bell could exploit it as a runner.
I haven't checked out the new Steelers OC yet, but we can hope he is somebody like Hue Palmer, and that he will do to Bell what Hue did to Crowell.
Even if the new guy is adaptable and flexible, it's doubtful that he can match Haley. He should no doubt keep using most of what Haley installed, but he'll inevittably want to tweak and tinker. We'll see how that goes.
On the other side of that, if you're saying that Haley and Jackson run similar offenses, please stop it.
Unlike Hue (who fooled us all), Todd Haley really does adapt his offense to the talent he has.
The one thing which seems common to most of Haley's offenses is the Swiss Army Knife running back. He loves screwing up defenses by putting running backs in the slot or even wide. Running backs who can't catch need not apply.
As for the rest of it, Haley has used zone and man-blocking, West Coast and vertical passing (Air Coryall stuff, however; still timing)...whatever works.
Antonio Brown is a West Coast receiver. Those are all timing routes. Didn't know that, did you? Hopefully the new guy will send him deep chasing back-shoulder throws (too much to hope for).
All I'm saying is that even if Todd Haley's loss doesn't hurt the Steelers, his hiring by the Browns will help the Browns offense a lot.
Comparing these two defenses is even more interesting.
The Steelers stick with a 3-4 base, whereas Gregg Williams runs a 4-3, so comparing the front sevens gets complicated.
3-4 defensive ends are really just taller defensive tackles, and they often line up inside the offensive tackles and are inside players. Nose tackles don't have to be very athletic. Outside linebackers between the two schemes are drasticly different...
I'll just toss all the players into two blenders and compare the smoothies:
The Steelers have TJ Watt, who is a beast like his brother JJ, but plays outside linebacker. This guy is special, because he's pretty good in coverage, as well as being a great edge-rusher. Watt could actually play OLB in a 4-3.
That's about it for them, as far as star-power is concerned.
The Browns have Myles Garrett. Let's call that a draw. But (ask Garrett himself), Ogbah is really being sold short here; he's great vs the run, and an excellent passrusher in his own right.
Shobert made the Pro Bowl as an alternate in his first season as a starter at MLB. His stats were pretty good, but lost in here is the fact that this second year player was Gregg's "field general", and called all the defenses.
Dorsey has just loaded up on passrushing defensive ends who can play inside, and he already had three athletic, penetrating real defensive tackles (and Jamie Meder).
As I noted, Nate Orchard appears to have been moved back to strongside linebacker again. He just might make the team because of it; he can actually play that position and rush the quarterback from there.
This, in combination with drafting Genard Avery in the fifth round, offers strong clues to Gregg Williams' intentions.
Jamie Collins is also a very big guy, so Gregg wants big, physical, almost 3-4 SAMs. Everybody expects Avery to start out at MLB, but he's more likely a strong side guy (at least as much).
And Avery ices the cake: The Browns front seven is better than the Steelers front seven. It's now extremely deep, and other teams will scramble to sign the players John Dorsey will have to cut.
Because of Gregg Williams' unique defense, comparing the respective secondaries is complicated as well.
But no need to dig too deep here: The Browns secondary is better. The cornerbacks (including nickel) are better, the strong safeties are better two-deep, and I'll bet Damarious Randall will be a pretty good free safety.
It's kind of obvious: Joe Haden is expected to be the Steelers number one cornerback, and Denzel Ward is here now. Derrick Kindred didn't disappear, and Peppers gets to play where he's more comfortable.
Summing up the defensive comparisons, the Browns are better than the Steelers...period.
What about special teams? Last season, the Browns special teams kinda sucked.
But now, the Browns have both Antonio Callaway and Evan Berry as returners. Tank Carder is back, Genard Avery is another addition, and John Dorsey has added a lot of speed to the roster in general.
Shane Gonzalez and Britton Colquitt should be fine as the kicker and punter. For the hell of it, I'll say the Steelers' special teams are a little better.
Coaching? Don't even try telling me that Dorsey and Williams are outgunned here.
If you think with your brain, you can now see that it is possible that the 1-31 Browns can beat the Steelers.
Dorsey inheritted an extremely young team, and Joe Thomas's retirement didn't help any.
But a bunch of those young players are entering their second and third seasons, and know which end is up. Dorsey did a great job of acquiring young, proven veterans to provide leadership and examples.
The 2017 Browns, despite Kizer and Hue Fisher, had the Steelers beat twice last season, but choked on it.
This (upgraded) Browns team won't choke. They won't be intimidated, by the Steelers or any other team they face.
Most of you don't really get this yet: Tyrod Taylor isn't DeShone Kizer (and niether is Mayfield). Todd Haley is not Hue Fisher. This team is more experienced than the 2017 team, and just added a lot more talent than the Steelers did.
The Browns might not win game one (got to remember the referees right?) But they are loaded for bear.
Every season, people talk about "tough schedules" etc., and every year a few teams surprise everybody.
That's because the best teams get older, and lose talent to the cap and their draft positions. The younger teams mature.
The Browns have a tough schedule based on yesterday's news.
Well, you shouldn't be surprised by any Browns win in 2018. They are one of the most talented and best-coached teams in the NFL.
It's easy to figure out why the Cleveland Browns were selected to be on "Hard Knocks" in 2018. Tons and tons of story-lines, and the classic "turnaround" theme.
Some of the reactions are just plain silly. USA wrote an article about how this is Baker Mayfield's worst nightmare.
I honestly couldn't make myself read the article, but no doubt they expect rabid dawg Browns fans to chant "Ba-ker! Ba-ker!" starting with Tyrod Taylor's first incompletion.
Oh, some will, of course, but I expect the majority of the other fans to just glare at them til they just turn red and shut up.
And like the majority of fans, Mayfield himself is being sold way short. By implication, so is Tyrod Taylor. Tyrod has never had the array of weapons or the protection he will have here in 2018.
So now he will start screwing up and trigger the Mayfield chants?
First, don't fixate on the simpler offense Mayfield ran in college. He's got 48 starts and has a pro's brain. Next to Rosen, he was the most pro-ready quarterback in this class. He's far more advanced than DeShone Kizer was, and being "thrown into the fire" early won't hurt him.
Especially with Todd Haley, and not Hue Palmer, running the offense.
And why does everybody call Sam Darnold the "safer" pick? With all those interceptions and his performances vs elite teams?
Talk about tortured logic, one guy who liked Darnold better isolated what the Georgia defense did to Mayfield in the semi-final as evidence that he's "not ready" for pro defenses.
Mayfield only threw for around 287 yards there. In his 48 starts, that was probably his low point; 287 yards vs the Bulldog.
Darnold has several worse games. I could have zeroed in on what Ohio State did to him, if I were that simple-minded.
Don't get me wrong, as I'm aware that Darnold has a lot less experience, and a ton of potential. I only say that it's just plain bizarre to suggest that Baker Mayfield was a "riskier" pick than Sam Darnold. It's not even close.
Josh Edwards (247 Sports) wrote another nice article quoting unnamed NFL Executives as being critical of Dorsey drafting Denzel Ward rather than Bradley Chubb.
They (if they exist) do make compelling points, just as Josh himself might:
Edge-rushers are rare. Cornerbacks are not. Analytically, edge-rushers rank right behind cornerbacks in importance.
One unnamed exec allegedly said that they should have signed Marcus Peters, a proven shut-down Pro Bowler, in free agency instead.
But Peters was very expensive, and is a head case. It's one thing to roll the dice on kids with checkered pasts, but this clown has been around for awhile, and you can't fix stupid.
I have zero doubt that John Dorsey wanted Bradley Chubb. He would no doubt agree with all the other GMs (and pundits) about this in principal.
But John asked Gregg Williams what he wanted, and Gregg said Denzel Ward.
So all these guys aren't criticizing John Dorsey. They're questioning one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL.
I'll give Gregg the nod here.
I found a really good article by Josh Edwards of 247 Sports listing nine new players for the Browns who could make immediate impacts. He dug up the most important stats and measurables for each player; it was really informative (thanks Josh!)
...but Josh isn't perfect, so I need to make a few minor corrections. I'll just hit those as I kinda review Josh's really good insights:
Josh lists WR Damion Ratley (see last post) 9th, and even says that he "came on strong" late in his last season, but says he's been "inconsistent".
Ratley has not been inconsistent. He went from being consistently rarely targetted to consistently tearing up opposing defenses later. He consistently averaged over 22 yards per catch throughout.
Josh is correct that he might not make the final roster, however. We'll see.
CB Simeon Thomas is next, and I can't correct Josh anywhere here, except his height gives him an edge. I also didn't realize how fast and "sudden" this tall guy was til I read this article. Thomas has a real shot here!
Josh assumes a lot in re DE Chad Thomas. Niether his measurables nor performance give him any edge whatsoever over Nassib, Orchard, or Chris Smith. In fact, he looks like Chris Smith redux.
Dorsey (Williams) drafted Thomas high for a reason, of course, and Josh no doubt adds some weight to him on that basis, which is logical.
We can skip Mayfield.
Chris is on the money with LB Genard Avery, except he said that there was "very little depth" at linebacker, which is incorrect.
On the current (Ourlads) Browns depth chart, Nate Orchard is listed as a backup SAM, Tank Carder (who was winning the mlb war until he was injured in 2017) is the backup Mike, and Burgess did a nice job at OLB in relief last season. That's good depth!
But he's right about Avery in general: He was the best passrusher from his position in the 2018 draft. He's both bigger and faster than all the guys I just named (faster than Collins too, for that matter).
He should quickly rise up the depth chart at every linebacker position (Pat Kirwan sees him as a weak side linebacker!).
Special teams, check, but (see earlier posts), Gregg Williams is certain to get him on the field on obvious passing downs starting yesterday, as well.
Josh lumps Callaway in with Coleman and Landry behind Gordon in the "guys under 6'" category.
That's way too general. Landry is a slow slot-only guy. Coleman and Callaway can also be outside deep threats. And right now, Callaway is ahead of Coleman.
Josh nails down Austin Corbett perfectly: If he can't nail down left tackle, he'll be tried everywhere else.
My pal Waittilnextyear freaked out when Corbett was drafted in the second round (over more promising left tackle prospects), but I gotta say this:
Corbett not only succeeded Joel Bitonio in college, but is very much like him as a player. He is a "can't miss" prospect, ready to start immediately, and to keep starting til he retires.
John Dorsey might be going for all the marbles in 2018, but he also wants to build a dynasty. Corbett is part of that, even if he doesn't start at left tackle right away. Per my NFL Radio guys, Corbett was worth that pick.
Nick Chubb: Josh isn't among those who steal stuff from my Blog and pretend they thought it up themselves, so he made the mistake of saying he's not much of a receiver.
Josh also describes Chubb as an explosive inside runner, but Chubb is more than that. He has great vision, and the speed to get outside.
Denzel Ward, he lists first, for obvious reasons.
Josh lost focus as this article went along. While he never got stupid, he went from a Master's thesis to shorthand as he ran out of steam.
Denzel Ward was the best pure press/man cornerback in this draft class, and that is why he is here.
This class was loaded with excellent cornerbacks, but Ward was the one who almost always played press/man vs elite competition and came out on top consistently.
I made fun of people who projected Ward over Bradley or Chubb at 4th overall in this Blog. I fell off my chair when they took Ward over Chubb there!
When Waittilnextyear liked the pick, my response was "Ohio State fan".
But I was wrong. Waittilnextyear and Gregg Williams were right. (Read through my posts to track my evolution).
Actually I was also all over Sam Darnold til Waittilnextyear pointed me at Baker Mayfield, too. Up til then, I thought he was too short and unstable.
Anyhoo, Josh Edwards should have said that Denzel Ward will enable Gregg Williams to run the tight coverage schemes he needs for his defense to work.
Departing from Josh, Ward isn't Joe Haden. Joe is two inches shorter, and not nearly as fast. Joe wasn't a pure press/man guy either.
Buzzkill Bill Polian said that expecting a man corner to do well immediately is a "tall order", but he's fulla beans.
Man corners don't have to learn the whole defense. All they have to do is cover one individual.
They can study films on the one or two guys they will be facing, so they can anticipate the dirty tricks etc., but for Ward, it's pretty simple:
He just plain covers the guy in front of him.
Ward will start game one vs Antonio Brown. He is bigger, quicker, and faster. He is not intimidated. AB will make some catches on him, but he won't do much with them.
Put your snorkels on: under TODD HALEY, Antonio Brown worked out of the slot, as well as outside. Haley tried to move him around to avoid the best cornerbacks on the opposing teams, and to (in the slot) give him two-way goes.
Haley had Laveon Bell to play with too. Often when AB was outside, Bell was in the slot. What's a free safety to do?
Antonio Brown is NOT a "deep threat". He breaks inside shallow and intermediate, and makes his money after the catch (kinda like Jerry Rice did).
Denzel Ward can cover Brown. It had a lot to do with why Gregg Williams wanted him (over Bradley Chubb):
Brown runs precise routes, and relies on separation off sudden breaks inside. Big Ben thows perfect passes to catch him in-stride off these breaks, so he's at full speed in the open field, and the cornerback can't catch him before he does major damage.
Well, many defenses don't even try to bump-and-run (press/man) Antonio Brown, because he's too quick and slippery for their cornerbacks. They go off-man, and just try to "contain" him underneath.
We've all seen the results.
Denzel Ward will be in Brown's face. He will force him outside. He will ignore him as a deep threat, and force him to stop to make his break inside. He will then curl in the same direction, and make sure Brown can't turn it upfield, like he does to everybody else. Ward is too fast for him.
...Joe Haden couldn't do this. He wasn't fast enough. Denzel Ward is better than Joe Haden ever was, right now. (no knock on Joe: I love him too! But Ward is just plain better).
Antonio Brown might well be easier for Denzel Ward to deal with than the bigger/taller guys...
But if Haden in his prime could stifle Green and Megatron, why can't Ward?
I wish I was a full subsciber to Swish or PFF. I wish I could tell you for sure that what Gregg Williams said about those 27-29 times he saw Myles Garrett two feet away from sacks means that tighter coverage will open up a can o sack whupass on opposing offenses. If the average time from snap to throw goes up 0.2 seconds, that will happen.
I think so: Williams only cited Garrett, but obviously there are a bunch of other guys who "missed by that much".
See previous posts: Pessure is the surest way to force negative plays and turnovers, but it's useless if the offense can run and throw dink-passes consistently.
Press/man coverage makes a big difference. It became popular in response the Bill Walsh's "West Coast" timing offense.
Gregg Williams (with Dorsey's help) now has the people he needs for tight man coverage. He now has everything he needs (assuming Damarius Randall works out as well as optimisticly projected at free safety).
I anticipate a dominating defense in 2018; easily in the top six. Gregg Williams has done more with less; in fact he might never have had this much to work with in his carreer.
That "L" you've got next to game one on the schedule better be in pencil.
Shallow analysis really messes things up. Not until I read this article did I realize that Texas AM wide receiver Damion Ratley caught 17 passes for 387 yards in his last five games as a Senior.
All I'd heard about him before was about his lack of production in college. He was labelled strictly a deep threat, and I echoed that tripe myself.
Garbage in, garbage out.
Well, I stand corrected: This guy now looks like a steal. His earlier production (or lack thereof) means a lot less than his last five games, during which he became a key/core player for his team, and was as productive as any wide receiver in this draft class.
This is called "trending up". Ratley cited "lack of trust", rather than his own ability, as the main reason he wasn't targeted so often earlier, but the reasons don't matter.
Ratley does need to pack more muscle on his skinny frame, so he probably won't jump right into the starting mix at wide receiver, but his chances of sticking around are really good.
22 yards per catch.
I just read one of the most ignorant articles ever written:
The fool who wrote this found the notion of Josh Gordon counseling Antonio Gallaway "idiotic", and expected everybody to agree with him.
Gordon has been sober for over 20 months, but this guy goes back and documents his whole history with substance abuse...
He cites all this as reasons why Gordon should not counsel Callaway!
Obviously, as AA will tell you, the more similar a sponsor's history is to that of a new member, the better. Gordon is just about the best sponsor for Callaway on Earth.
But that's just AA---what do they know? Or all those psychologists? Or Tim Montgomery? Or all those people with three digit IQs?
For several years, it's been great fun to make fun of the Browns. If you didn't join in, you were uncool.
But now, the real experts are impressed by the Browns offseason moves, and the talent they've amassed. Ed McCaffery even picked them to come in second in the North, and win at least eight games.
But some people didn't get the memo. This article was just another attempt to be "cool" by pointing out something idiotic they are doing.
This is the guy who, when everybody is having great fun picking on a nerd for big teeth, glasses, voice, etc., says "Haha an I boinked your mother last night haha".
Everybody just stares at him, and walks away shaking their heads.
That's what this article was.
I was wrong about both Nick Chubb and Carlos Hyde as receivers. That's what I get for trusting amatuer pundits and not doing my own homework.
While PFF does cite a high drop-rate for Hyde, he was a productive receiver for Kyle Shanahan out of the backfield.
I discovered that as a freshman, Nick Chubb caught 18 passes (and averaged 11.8 yards per catch). For a guy that young, that's impressive.
I told you that Chubb would "learn to" be a good receiver, which was really stupid.
After Chubb's gruesome season-ending injury in his sophomore year, Sony Michel emerged as a terrific receiver. When Chubb returned, he found his role "downsized" as Michel remained the main pass-catcher.
Amatuers (and dumbasses like me who trusted some of them) looked at his latest stats and decided Chubb "needed work" as a receiver.
In finally doing my diligence on Chubb, I'm more impressed than I was with him. This guy averaged around 6.7 yards per carry as a freshman and sophomore, up until his injury.
He wasn't the same as a junior (that's to be expected: full recovery can take 18 months or longer).
He was also dinged up and played hurt as a Senior, but came on very strong at the end (ask Baker Mayfield!)
Laquon Barkley overshadowed some really good running backs in this draft, but Nick Chubb might be the best of the rest.
A small minority of real experts weren't big Barkley fans, either. Bucky Brooks felt he bounced outside too often, and was "too greedy", so to speak.
Rather than lower his pads and hammer out a tough yard or two, he fooled around looking for a big splash play, and sometimes left yardage on the field.
Barkley's (running) stats vs Chubb's aren't much different overall, but as Brooks pointed out, Barkley had a few clunker games, while Nick Chubb set a record for consecutive 100 yard games.
Every scouting report says that Chubb has great vision, and sometimes pauses to allow blocks to develop (like Laveon Bell; he's patient). At he same time, he's very quick to the hole, and always falls forward at the end.
Bucky said that this sort of hard-nosed attitude is what's required in the NFL, and he felt that Chubb, among others, projected better to the NFL than Barkley.
I didn't agree, because Barkley is a very smart guy, and adopting a "harder nose" shouldn't be a problem for him. Barkley will tear up the NFL, and put the Giants right back in contention.
But Nick Chubb matched him with 29 bench press reps, was 3 inches under him in the high jump, and pretty close in the broad jump.
In Pat Kiwan's "explosive" ratings, Barkley was over 80, but Nick Chubb was over 78. (70 is the threshold. Over 80 is rare. 78 is exceptional.)
Kirwan was a track coach as well as an NFL Personnel guy, and uses these three combine tests to measure "quick-twitch" traits.
Yeah, Barkley also clocked a 4.36(?) 40 and a faster 3-cone drill, but Chubb was no slouch there either. Barkley is an inch taller and six pounds heavier.
You can't call a high second round running back a "steal", but I do think that Dorsey might have nabbed the second-best running back in this draft class.
Nick Chubb draws comparisons to Marshawn Lynch and Laveon Bell. Think about that.
While you're thinking, think about Howard Wilson. Wilson was injured, not killed, in his rookie season, and Sashi Brown draft pick or no, he will be in the mix to start as a perimeter cornerback in 2018.
Howard will remain 6'1", and be the tallest defensive back (besides Montrel Meander and skyscraper Simeon Thomas) on the roster.
He clocked a pedestrian 4.57 at the combine, and only weighed 186 lbs. These were the main reasons why he wasn't a first or second round pick.
Well, ok-his vertical jump was downright putrid too--he must have sucked on Kirwan's explosive ratings. However his short shuttle and 3-cone drills were exceptional (and these are especially important for man cornerbacks).
If you read the scouting reportS on him, his 40 time and vertical jump didn't bother the scouts.
They felt that Wilson just needed to get bigger and stronger. Count on that Hanz and Franz mission having been accomplished.
For you whippersnappers, let me tell you, clock-times can be deceptive in re man corners. They don't start out of blocks on the football field.
Hanford Dixon had a slow 40 time too. He wasn't a great jumper either.
Now, Howard Wilson may not start over the two veterans and fourth overall pick in front of him in 2018, but he's 6'1", and Gregg Williams will probably find uses for him.
A lot of you still don't understand press/man coverage. There's a lot of technique involved. The corner sets up slightly inside the wide receiver "inside leverage", depriving him of any immediate in-cut, and forcing him outside. He extends his hands to try to knock the receiver off-balance, even as he turns to run with him.
The receiver (certainly vs Wilson/Dixon) tries to blow by the cornerback, but to do this, he has to avoid him, ie angle towards the sideline.
While the rules say that "contact" is restricted to within five yards from scrimmage, that doesn't mean that cornerbacks aren't allowed to run side-by-side with recievers, and kinda bump into them (without using their hands) as they race downfield.
The receiver is acutely aware of the sideline, and (no matter how fast he is), can't run at full speed due to the jostling and friction.
He can stop unexpectedly, and shake the cornerback for a cut inside, but this is the only way for him to get open.
If he doesn't do this, the man corner jostles him towards the sidelines, and remains between him and the quarterback.
Naturally, that stop/start in-cut can toast the man corner if the quarterback anticipates it, or if he does get a step or two ahead of him verticly, but the very deep free safety knows this too, and anyway---get real: if you expect perfection, there is something wrong with you.
Anyhoo, Hanford Dixon got toasted here and there, but generally didn't. Howard Wilson can do what he did.
Dan Justik (Dawg Pound Daily) lists four undrafted free agents he thinks have a shot to make the final roster.
He might have read my Blog to find offensive tackle Desmond Harrison, and to project what might happen with him, but he's obviously correct. Desmond has a puncher's chance at left tackle in 2018, but a good chance at sticking around somehow. (Just read my earlier post. Dan didn't copy everything verbatum and I got deeper).
Dan likes Devon Berry's chances, and he makes sense. Eric's younger brother is being converted to WR from safety. He was a lethal returner on special teams. Whether or not the wide receiver thing works out, he has a good shot to make the team in 2018.
Dan's analysis is kinda shallow here, and he ignores Callaway too: As a safety, Devon should excel in coverage on special teams as well.
DT Trenton Thompson really could be a diamond in the rough, and is indeed in Caleb Brantley's face. But Dan, like everybody else except me, hallucinates a "need" at defensive tackle which does not exist.
However, Justik makes a good case for Thompson overall, including the fact that he's undersized now, but will of course get bigger and stronger, and has proven himself as a passrusher from DT (lots of upside here).
But Thompson is a "3-technique" penetrator, period. Dan suggested that he could knock Jamie Meder off the roster.
I admit that this is possible, but it would signal a major departure from the norm for Gregg Williams.
As I've told you before, almost every 4-3 defense in the NFL features one "penetrating" defensive tackle, and one two-gap big stong defensive tackle.
As it stands, Meder is the obvious two-gap guy, although the other three guys can do that too.
John Dorsey has overloaded the Browns with defensive ends who can "play inside" as well.
I don't think Jamie Meder is going anywhere. Jamie Meder is a "real football player" who is better than anybody else on this team in his little niche.
Gregg Williams will want him for every obvious run or goal line situation, and as a rotational player on neutral downs as well.
Nice problems to have.
Pokorney read an article in USA Today and agreed with it: the Browns have a shot as a Wild Card in 2018.
DEAL with it.
This just in: Baker Mayfield himself seems okay with parking it for awhile behind Tyrod Taylor.
Baker refers to the time he had to sit (per NCAA rules) after walking on at Oklahoma. He said that was good for him.
That's a relief. Some fans will be lobbying to kick Taylor to the curb no matter how well he plays, but Mayfield himself won't join that chorus.
And just stop asking what if Taylor plays great. He's leaving in 2019. Mayfield started a ton of games in college and is mechanically perfect already, and the Browns can't afford to pay Taylor long-term starting money in order to keep him on the bench.
Ross Tucker decries trading a valuable top third round pick to "rent" Tyrod for one season instead of paying AJ McCarron a lot less money, and signing him longer-term.
However, at the time, people were expecting McCarron to command even more money than Taylor (read: starter money).
Hue and Jimmy had already forced Sashi Brown to attempt to trade a third and fifth round pick for McCarron, in the last year of his contract, late in 2017.
That massively inflated McCarron's percieved value.
AJ's market collapsed because the Browns went with an experienced veteran in Taylor. Until then, he wasn't going to accept less than starting money, long-term, from the Browns.
While yeah, that almost second-round pick stung a little, it was critical that Dorsey find a proven starter to stop the bleeding ASAP.
Marty Schottenheimer said that winning is a "habit". Well, so is losing.
This is where we go beyond analytics. This team has to stop suiting up for every game expecting to lose, and that is urgent. Tyrod Taylor can do this.
Besides, look at all the very young players on this team, the flood of veteran free agents Dorsey brought in.
In context, Dorsey could afford that draft pick, just as he could the 16 mil. Stop the losing. NOW.
Ralax, Ross. It's no biggee.
People keep repeating that John Dorsey is getting rid of all the players he inheritted, and will continue to.
Nah! He traded Shelton, let Telfer and McCourty go, and some deep depth guys like he will again this time next season.
Dorsey has thus far retained the bulk of the higher profile players he was "stuck with" by the incompetent (you wish) Sashi Brown.
Who will be the next to be purged? Well if you said Corey Coleman, maybe you got me there. Dorsey might well want to trade him.
But one thing here: DeShone Kizer wasn't Coleman's fault, any more than he was Gordon's. And Josh was all the way back, and he looked like just "a guy".
But if rumors are true that Coleman is late to meetings and lacks dedication...well that's different.
But after Coleman, who (and Higgins/Louis don't count) gets purged next? Ogbah? Kirksey? Kindred? Duke? Ogunjobi? Bitonio? Tretter? Zietler? Shobert? Collins? DeValve (ok maybe him...I mean if Dorsey gets somebody better...which is unlikely).
Forget about Dorsey's brief stint as Hue Palmer's press secretary and saying the Browns lacked "real football players" okay? That was political, and he knew it was bullcrap when he spewed it. He underestimated (some of) us Browns fans. He backed off in a hurry.
The reality is that he can't go around cutting good players (until he finds better players), and he's still working on that.
Callaway is certainly right in Corey Coleman's face. Avery probably already kicked 1-2 depth linebackers to the curb. I forgot about DeShone Kizer (Tyrod) but for Damarius Randall that was an easy trade to make.
Chris Smith and Chad Thomas are here to duke it out with Nassib and Orchard. Whoever wins can probably be called real football players!
Austin Corbett isn't going to start inside in 2018, but will for sure kick a quality offensive lineman to the curb, and demote another one, because he's likely to start at offensive tackle sometime in 2018 (right or left we don't know yet).
New topic:
1: Spencer Drango is NOT a left tackle candidate. See 2017. He's not going to get better. He won't get any reps there. (I'm not bashing him: He made a valiant effort, but simply lacks the physical tools. He's a good player.)
2: Drango might be the odd man out if Corbett doesn't win the left tackle derby. Corbett can play all five offensive line positions, and is better than Drango at all of them.
3: Austin Reiter has a good shot to stick around as Tretter's primary backup (and possible successor) at center. Reiter is a real athlete who is smart and can block in space. Hanz and Franz have been pumping him up for two years now too.
You can't draw a lot of conclusions from the rookie minicamp, but the coaches worked Corbett at center as well as left tackle (and maybe other positions, for all I know).
I'll be watching to see how they use him when real training begins:
Every left tackle candidate will need reps there, of course, so it's fine with me if Austin Corbett practices at other positions (letting veterans not waste their time and risk injury), but he should be zeroed in on left tackle.
4: Nobody will "replace" Joe Thomas. As Pat Kirwan explains, Big Joe never needed help. In 2017, Drango needed a LOT of help.
This meant that a tight end had to line up left a lot to chip a lot, and defenses knew and predicted it.
Much has been made of Shon Coleman's penalties and surrendered hits and sacks in 2017, but part of this was because he was "on an island" so often, and the opponents used their best passrushers against him...
And he's not Joe Thomas either.
5: Hue Fisher could have used two tight ends more to fix this, especially before Josh Gordon came back, and when the wide receivers were Corey Coleman and guys named Joe but noooo!
6: Todd Haley isn't Hue Palmer, and runs this offense. THANK GOD.
How would Hue handle the offensive personnel the Browns have right now? Almost exactly the same as he handled a much different group last year.
What will Todd Haley do with them?
It starts with the quarterback(s) (and get real Drew Stanton doesn't count):
Run/pass options are obvious. (I get this now): It's a lot like the read-option except that if the quarterback keeps it, he's going to pass instead of run.
It's kind of a glorified play-action fake, except sometimes it's not a fake, and it doesn't require a conventional "pocket", since the quarterback and running back are moving laterally in lockstep (and the offensive line is aware of this...while the passrushers are not).
Nick Foles won the Superbowl partly doing this, and partly from the pocket (it was a brilliant Doug Peterson game-plan, customized just for Foles...Hue would have lost, for sure).
But I digress; anyway, both the read-option and run-pass option work with zone-blocking, since the offensive line is already moving laterally (and being aggressive...I'm leaving stuff out here, but you should get it:
They aren't sure if it's a pass or a run, since the quarterback has to decide that after the snap, see? And since they're moving laterally in the direction the quarterback and running back are going, their opposite numbers have to move with them.
It's not as complicated as it sounds, ok? The passrushers are supposed to out-quick, outmaneuver, or bull-rush offensive linemen, or else to meet them head on and read and react.
The run-pass option blows this up. Defensive coordinators are adapting to it, of course...probably with an extra-deep free safety (hmmm) and more emphasis on athletic linebackers and stuff (hmmm...)
But there's really no answer. Axe Lord Insideous in New England.
But I digress again: The offensive line gets to block it as if it's a run. If the defenders attack a "pocket" which was never intended to materialize in the first place, some are way out of position, and some are ear-holed oh, the humanity!
But (unless an offensive coordinator is dumb enough to abandon conventional pockets and power/man altogether), they can't sell out to stop the RPO either.
Todd Haley has Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield now. He has an athletic (and "nasty") offensive line. Two athletic freak tight ends (and Darren Fells; a BIGGER, BLOCKING freak).
He has what looks to be at least a slight weakness at left tackle (well I mean in a Hue Palmer offense that is)...
He has Jarvis Landry, Duke, Hyde, Chubb...
This is all obvious to me already, but it's past last call here, so I'll need to spell the rest out to you guys later.
Stay tuned.
I can't find the article, but somebody wrote a good one on Ogbah ready to break out in 2018.
I haven't talked a lot about Ogbah because it just seemed so obvious that I thought that even most of you guys had to see it.
But with the persistance of the caterwalling over Ward instead of Chubb, obviously a lot of people didn't get it.
Emmanuel Ogbah vs Bradley Chubb:
Similar production, and nearly as good combine numbers. Chubb may be better than Ogbah, but only slightly. In fact I suspect that Ogbah is physically stronger.
I got on the Chubb train because I loved the idea of a Chubb/Ogbah/Garrett rotation, and not having to sweat EDGE for ten years. NOT because Ogbah doesn't belong right there with Chubb.
A few pundits thought Chubb was better than Garrett. I really doubt that. And they're not "clones". Find some body fat anywhere on Garrett. Go ahead I dare ya! Chubb's not like that! He's more like...US!
The Ogbah/Garrett combo traded injuries, and wasn't on the field a whole lot last season. When it was, it was pretty hard on opposing quarterbacks, despite (see last/earlier posts) Gregg Williams having to play zone and concede short/quick receptions...because he didn't have press/man corners...like Denzel Ward...)
Everybody knows that offenses will have to pay extra attention to Myles Garrett, which will help out Ogbah.
Anybody who has read this blog for awhile knows that means tight end chips and sliding protections to Garrett's side...
I'm fuzzy on terminology here, but I do know that in one case, the left guard shifts to his left to deprive Garrett of his inside move option, letting the left tackle focus on keeping him from getting around him on the outside.
In another case, the center loops back around the tackle to...
Forget the X's and O's (I'm sorry) but if Garrett is a 10, Ogbah is a 9.25 okay? Not that much less explosive, almost as fast, as strong or stronger. He can't get low and "bend" like Garrett, but niether can Chubb!!!
Dorsey has brought in edge guys to challenge Nassib and Orchard in free agent Chris Smith and draft pick Chad Thomas.
The two players are remarkably similar. Both are tall and athletic. They're good vs the run, and have shown "flashes" or signs of passrushing ability.
I can explain this (again): Gregg Williams doesn't care where pressure on quarterbacks come from. Everybody ELSE is fixated on the latest fad "EDGE" guys, but Gregg doesn't care.
In a Gregg Williams defense, the defensive ends have to set the edge and stop the run...he needs REAL defensive ends, and not one-dimensional "edge" guys.
And this applies to his defensive tackles as well. His four "real" defensive tackles can all two-gap or one-gap (well except Meder, who should 2-gap only).
All are good vs the run, but all (except Meder) can penetrate and chase quarterbacks out of the pocket too.
Dorsey signed and drafted two defensive ends who could "play inside" (at defensive tackle) as well.
Yup! That's about obvious passing downs! Gregg Williams wants a "Nascar Package" (ie four passrushing defensive ends to overmatch the guards and center).
People misunderstand Gregg Williams. He's creative and adaptable, but he's not a maniac.
He wants a front four consisting of "real football players" who can generate a passrush and stop the run first.
He wants a field general middle linebacker second, at least one press/man shut-down corner third, and only after that does he mess around.
Gregg does blitze a lot, but many of these blitzes are inside "run"- blitzes.
His oft-criticized "angel" safety is actually his insurance policy! The guy lines up deep for a reason!
Gregg Williams is unique, but his roots are fundamental. Protect the edge. Stop the run. Prevent the big play...then kill the quarterback, force turnovers etc.
Listen to him! He ran zone in 2017! HE chose Ward over Chubb!
T H I N K! Gregg Williams knows what he's doing. Instead of second-guessing him, listen to him and try to keep up with him! It's a lot less embarrassing for you.
Williams is ahead of the curve defending this run-pass option trend too; it's partly why he's more 4-3 than ever and loading up on real defensive ends, and...
But that's for a later post.
