A lot of people believe that there is a difference of opinion (oh I forgot: A divide) in Berea about the first overall pick (Garrett or Trubisky).
This divide may or may not actually exist. I have to take it seriously based on the source: Spymaster Adam Nosterdamus Shefter.
But this has led to wild and presumptive kneejerk speculation about who wants who between Jackson and the geek squad.
Hue Jackson recently said that the number one pick has to be an immediate difference-maker, etc. And you know he has to be talking about Myles Garrett. Fair enough. But I'm a little skeptical, because I know a thing or two about "disinformation" and "propaganda".
A couple weeks before the draft, it's generally wiser to assume that everybody who works for any team is lying about everything.
It is valid to adhere to the rule of thumb: Coaches want to win NOW, while Front Office people look farther down the road. That's because coaches get fired first. This would indicate that Hue wants Garrett.
But this is a rule of thumb. Hue Jackson was the apple of Jimmy Haslam's eye. He likes "analytics", and cited DePodesta and Brown's vision as one of the reasons he signed on. He was also promised that he would pick his quarterback.
I just heard Mary Kay Cabbott repeating this LaCanfora about Kessler being forced on him, and his saying "You'll have to trust ME on this one" was his heroicly covering up for Sashi Brown as if it was a proven fact. Why the hell would he endorse a player he expects to fail? That's suicidal!
If the geeks like Trubisky better than Garrett, why? Well obviously, quarterback is THE critical position.
I could make the case easily (with the help of Pat Kirwan thanks Pat): Garrett was stifled by elite competition. He got multiple sacks vs the Little Sisters of the Poor, but zero--or one in two games-- vs Arkansas, Alabama, etc.
(I think it's ironic that Kirwan makes fun of "moneyball" when he himself does analyses like this btw.)
Trubisky, on the other hand, was pretty consistent over his (admittedly too few) 13 starts. He checks all the boxes (especially the accuracy/anticipation/turnover boxes).
Based on this, I might well persuade a jury that Hue wants Garrett and the geeks want Trubisky, especially when I suggest that Hue might like Jackson or Mahomes nearly as much (as I have several times already anyway).
Makes sense, right? Hue thinks he can get his lump of clay at twelve or a little later (and Trubisky IS just a lump of clay himself right now too), so he says just grab Garrett and get the quarterback later.
The geeks say no: Trubisky is the most promising and safest lump of clay, and we need to make sure we get our high-quality clay while we can, and Garrett has been average vs better competition...
It's confusing. I don't know what rumors were deliberately floated as disinformation, what was Mary Kay Cabbott or La Canfora's fertile and drama-hungry imaginations...but Shefter...Adam Shefter said there were different opinions here, and Adam is THE BEST.
But I think the "divide", if it's real, is being massively distorted and misunderatood.
1: Jackson might have been "disinforming" about "immediate impact" at first overall. If I were running Browns counterintelligence, I would have had Hue say this if I wanted either a particular quarterback, or a trade-down, or both.
It's perfect: Everybody already thinks Hue is already afraid Hair-Trigger Haslam will fire him if he doesn't make the playoffs, and some even believe he didn't want Kessler, and that Sashi Brown is Stalin 2.0.
It also feeds the "dysfunctional" narrative. Many SMART football people will buy this for the asking price. Pat Kirwan is one.
2: It's Garrett vs Trubisky now. As you can see in my last post, it's deeper. The Browns might be leaking stuff to force fans to think with their brains, and take QUARTERBACK Mitch Trubisky seriously.
If so, it worked. Sentient beings like me are coming out of the closet in Mitch's defense, and frankly undermining the Branch-Garrettians indoctrination. (This is called "deprogramming".)
The 49ers made a big move of their own in announcing that they're "open for business", and prepared to listen to offers for their second overall pick.
I believe this is legit, because the Niners need a lot of help, have the inside track on Cousins, and have Brian Hoyer to hold the fort.
However, only two kinds of people will make offers for that pick: Garrett people, or Trubisky people.
Trubisky at 12? That's DOA now. If they don't draft him first overall, they won't get him.
Pat Kirwan pounded the table on NFL Radio: "If you want Mitch Trubisky, trade up to number two to make sure!"
That is insanity, and I don't think Kirwan would have suggested it to any other team. This guy really, really hates the Browns.
But I digress:
3: Everybody who wants Garrett is burning up the phone lines as I write this, because they know Sashi will listen. After all, Hue Jackson is just the Head Coach. Brown is a geek, and a gambler. He will try to outsmart all us old school vets and nab Trubisky later to pile up more meaningless first, second, and third round picks (the poor naaive kid).
3a: Hue might have liked Watson or Mahomes just fine all along anyway.
I was gone for awhile, but I'm back now:
As of right now, I think the Browns (ie Sashi, Paul, and Hue) want to trade down from number one, and consider Watson or Mahomes as suitable consolation prizes in lieu of Mitch Trubisky.
See my last post (and several others) again: Myles Garrett is just one guy, even if he is a generational talent. There are 10-12 other instant starter, immediate impact, elite players in this draft, almost every one of which fits a REAL Browns need better than Garrett. Safeties, corners, 3-tech defensive tackles, a tight end...
Gil Brandt says this draft is unusual, in that the 11th or so to the 46th or so players could all kinda be ranked the same...and they're all "real good". This draft is deep in "immediate impact".
The rumors of the Browns fishing around about trading into the lower third of the first round are probably true.
These are tentative, contingency feelers, dependant on how the draft falls. Most teams do this. These are the trades that happen when a team is on the clock. The agreement was made in advance.
For the Browns, I would guess this is about Patrick Mahomes. I think Watson will go before he does.
I conclude this with this disclaimer: Your guess is as good as mine.
Friday, April 14, 2017
Tuesday, April 11, 2017
Myles Garrett, Leonard Fournette, Trades, and the Browns
As I write this, Ross Tucker on NFL Radio is hammering Myles Garrett. Ross is starting to think this guy is bonkers after his most recent tweets: He's now talking about how smart he is.
What really frosted Ross was Garrett's cancelling his appearance on Mike and Mike because Booger McFarland was to be on the show. Booger McFarland has questioned Garrett's motor.
Booger isn't my favorite analyst, but this bugs me too. Not as much as it (and the video he made pleading with Jerry Jones to trade Romo to the Browns to draft him) irks Ross, but it does make me nervous about this guy.
Rhona LaCanfora's latest baseless rumor has the Browns considering drafting Leonard Fournette first overall. This is rediculous, obviously, but I'm glad it's been suggested.
As I've mentioned, the Browns will consider trade offers for the first overall pick. It is possible that someone in the organization (besides a janitor or a fictional "source") did float this rumor for once.
This would serve several purposes:
1: To guage public reaction to a trade-down.
2: Get an intelligent debate about a trade-down going, with time left for objective people to persuade emotional people that it's not unthinkable or even dumb. As it stands, a trade-down would bring out the torches and pitch-forks, and maybe fatwas and writs of excommunication.
3: Make people think they want Fournette over Trubisky, Hooker, et al.
4: Prime the pump; Get some offers...start some bidding.
To be clear, I don't think Garrett's actions would prevent the Browns from drafting him first overall if nobody coughs up the king's ransom they are trolling for.
I have to come back to one hypothetical trade I cited earlier: First overall for Garopollo, the Patriots third round pick in 2017, and their first in 2018.
Or possibly the Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota is just emerging, and the Titans may well be one player away from serious contention (which the Browns are not).
Aside from Garrett, any of the players being mocked at second or third overall could be available at five, and all of them are better fits for the Browns than Garrett.
These include the top two safeties, the top two defensive tackles, and Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky is a quarterback, which is different, but all of the other guys are most certainly day one studs who address actually real, (as opposed to imaginary), needs.
I suspect that Trubisky could be the real target. They'd have to risk Shanahan and the 49ers at second taking him, but Shanahan signed Hoyer, has the inside track on Kirk Cousins, and (unlike the Browns) really does have a crappy roster.
But then, a lot of smart people I respect remain very high on DeShaun Watson, and I myself like Mahomes too. I still suspect that for Hue Jackson, any high-quality lump of clay will suffice, so that even if somebody else nabs Trubisky, he won't be falling down throwing any tantrums.
I'm just throwing this out there. I'll take Garrett and love it if that's how it plays out. Or I'd take Jimmy G and some high picks to boot. Or I'll take Hooker, Adams, Allen, Thomas, or Trubisky and more high (HIGH I said, as in high percentage) draft picks in 2018 and in this defensive back, tight end, edge, and defensive tackle-rich 2017 draft.
If the Browns did float the Fournette balloon, it was a smart move.
A note on Josh Gordon: The Browns gear in the trash can was six months ago, and was far more likely a reaction to comments by Mary Kay Cabbott and other opiners than to anything the Browns said.
He's been listening to pundits call him a drug addict, recommend and predict his release (and personal doom), and even imply that he might have forgot how to catch passes by now (holy ____!) ever since he chose to enter rehab, and I guess he couldn't find any pundit gear for the trash can.
If Mary Kay thinks a stupid snapchat post "sealed his fate", she really has no idea what Sashi Brown does for a living. Yeah right. Sashi didn't see this until now, and it will make him decide not to keep him? A stupid angry photo a young guy posted, then deleted several months ago is a "last straw"?
Why does everybody think people who run football teams are little boys? Good grief.
What a load of LaCanfora.
What really frosted Ross was Garrett's cancelling his appearance on Mike and Mike because Booger McFarland was to be on the show. Booger McFarland has questioned Garrett's motor.
Booger isn't my favorite analyst, but this bugs me too. Not as much as it (and the video he made pleading with Jerry Jones to trade Romo to the Browns to draft him) irks Ross, but it does make me nervous about this guy.
Rhona LaCanfora's latest baseless rumor has the Browns considering drafting Leonard Fournette first overall. This is rediculous, obviously, but I'm glad it's been suggested.
As I've mentioned, the Browns will consider trade offers for the first overall pick. It is possible that someone in the organization (besides a janitor or a fictional "source") did float this rumor for once.
This would serve several purposes:
1: To guage public reaction to a trade-down.
2: Get an intelligent debate about a trade-down going, with time left for objective people to persuade emotional people that it's not unthinkable or even dumb. As it stands, a trade-down would bring out the torches and pitch-forks, and maybe fatwas and writs of excommunication.
3: Make people think they want Fournette over Trubisky, Hooker, et al.
4: Prime the pump; Get some offers...start some bidding.
To be clear, I don't think Garrett's actions would prevent the Browns from drafting him first overall if nobody coughs up the king's ransom they are trolling for.
I have to come back to one hypothetical trade I cited earlier: First overall for Garopollo, the Patriots third round pick in 2017, and their first in 2018.
Or possibly the Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota is just emerging, and the Titans may well be one player away from serious contention (which the Browns are not).
Aside from Garrett, any of the players being mocked at second or third overall could be available at five, and all of them are better fits for the Browns than Garrett.
These include the top two safeties, the top two defensive tackles, and Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky is a quarterback, which is different, but all of the other guys are most certainly day one studs who address actually real, (as opposed to imaginary), needs.
I suspect that Trubisky could be the real target. They'd have to risk Shanahan and the 49ers at second taking him, but Shanahan signed Hoyer, has the inside track on Kirk Cousins, and (unlike the Browns) really does have a crappy roster.
But then, a lot of smart people I respect remain very high on DeShaun Watson, and I myself like Mahomes too. I still suspect that for Hue Jackson, any high-quality lump of clay will suffice, so that even if somebody else nabs Trubisky, he won't be falling down throwing any tantrums.
I'm just throwing this out there. I'll take Garrett and love it if that's how it plays out. Or I'd take Jimmy G and some high picks to boot. Or I'll take Hooker, Adams, Allen, Thomas, or Trubisky and more high (HIGH I said, as in high percentage) draft picks in 2018 and in this defensive back, tight end, edge, and defensive tackle-rich 2017 draft.
If the Browns did float the Fournette balloon, it was a smart move.
A note on Josh Gordon: The Browns gear in the trash can was six months ago, and was far more likely a reaction to comments by Mary Kay Cabbott and other opiners than to anything the Browns said.
He's been listening to pundits call him a drug addict, recommend and predict his release (and personal doom), and even imply that he might have forgot how to catch passes by now (holy ____!) ever since he chose to enter rehab, and I guess he couldn't find any pundit gear for the trash can.
If Mary Kay thinks a stupid snapchat post "sealed his fate", she really has no idea what Sashi Brown does for a living. Yeah right. Sashi didn't see this until now, and it will make him decide not to keep him? A stupid angry photo a young guy posted, then deleted several months ago is a "last straw"?
Why does everybody think people who run football teams are little boys? Good grief.
What a load of LaCanfora.
Sunday, April 9, 2017
Objectivity, Offensive Needs, Punditry and the Browns
Todd McShea and Mel Kiper released new mock drafts. Garrett check.
Kiper gives us Watson at 12 (with Trubisky gone). Mel thinks the Browns will have to draft either one here, partly for political reasons.
They passed up Wentz last year, and number twelve is one of the many draft picks they got for doing so. Kiper says if they pass up one of these guys here, and they kick butt somewhere else, "heads will roll".
Clearly, Kiper has a much, much, much higher opinion of Watson than Buzz Kill Bill does, and if he is right, then he's right about the pick, too.
Atop the second, he drafts the guy who smashed a woman's face in: Joe Mixon. Mixon was a punk, and should have a second chance--to grow up, regret, and reform. But that video will never go away, and five years from now, people will experience it as if it happened yesterday.
Many people will never forgive him. Kiper and everybody else think Mixon is a great multi'dimensional big play work horse running back, and Mixon would be a great value here.
But Kiper sees running back as a need, and it is not. There will be players with similar grades at positions of real need there, so I really, really doubt that the Browns would take this baggage on with this pick.
At 52, it's safety Marcus Maye. Cool.
McShea goes with OJ Howard, DeShone Kizer, and JuJu Smith-Shuster. I love OJ Howard but hate the rest of this.
Aside from being big and tall, I can't fathom why so many people like DeShone Kizer. McShea has to send Kizer somewhere, so he picked the Browns. But if he were running this team, I really doubt that he'd make this pick.
And the Browns don't need wide receivers. Not that Smith-Shuster isn't pretty good.
Jeff Schudel wrote a great article on the potential Garopollo trade. I agree with every word of it.
Jeff correctly describes Lord Insideous's situation in New England with rare clarity, including the possibility of his committing 40 million bucks to the quarterback position in 2018 should he retain Jimmy G.
Jeff is also spot-on about time working against Bill. As of now, he's said to be unwilling to even consider trading Jimmy G, or alternatively, to demand the first overall pick, another first round pick, and the contents of Fort Knox.
That's how I would start my negotiations too. As I've repeated ad nauseum (sorry btw), unless Bill Belichick expects to replace Tom Brady after the 2017 season, he almost has to let Jimmy go, period.
Jeff is right. The Browns should just sit tight. If the Sith Lord needs to cash in on his young apprentice, he has to do it before the draft, and will make the best deal he can. He loses, rather than gains, leverage every day.
This aint over til it's over.
Two articles I read today line up perfectly: If the Browns trade down from first overall, they need to keep Brock Osweiler. He can start against whichever team drafts Myles Garrett.
Micheal Bode really let Tony Grossi have it over what Tony said about Barnwell. I wouldn't have been that harsh, but can't argue with anything Bode said here.
Micheal, like me, is sick of "analytics", like "moneyball", being used as a snarky perjoritive by "old schoolers" who usually don't even comprehend what people like Paul DePodesta do.
More specificly, Grossi must hang out with Mary Kay, as Micheal says Tony implies that Barnwell is a de facto consultant to the Browns, based on Barnwell's suggestion that the Browns make the Osweiler trade well before they did exactly that.
Personally, even if that were true, so what? Sashi, Paul, and company should keep their ears open to what everybody on their "smart" list is saying.
Is thinking you're smarter than everybody else and refusing to consider their opinions part of being "old school"? If so, that is sad! But it does sound like Buzz Kill Bill, no?
There seems to be some confusion over Hue Jackson's offense, especially as pundits try to determine how potential quarterbacks or other players would "fit".
It gets insane. Because he coached Flacco and traded for Carson Palmer, some think he wants a big strong-armed bomber. Because he coached Andy Dalton, some think he wants an athletic sharpshooter like him.
Because he had AJ Greene, Marvin Jones, those two running backs and Eiffert in Cincinnati and used them accordingly, many think Hue wants to run and go vertical a lot.
The fact is, as Hue himself, and many of his former players have told anybody who would listen, Hue Jackson will run any offensive scheme which fits the players he has.
He inheritted what he inheritted when he got here last season, and the new regime didn't have a lot of time to prep for it's inaugural off season.
Now Hue has a base to work with. His skilled offensive core includes Britt, Coleman, Crowell, and Duke. I omitted Gary Barnidge on purpose; he's not a long-term guy, and is in decline.
These four players will influence who the Browns target in the draft, as well as the offensive scheme Hue Jackson is planning.
I'm trying to work this out as I write this (quiet: Genius at work!).
Well, Britt is kind of a more refined Terrelle Pryor. Pryor's 40 time is significantly faster, but Britt was a track star who set state records in the longer sprints. Pryor has a couple inches on Britt (and damn near every other wide receiver), but this is partly why Britt is more sudden in his breaks/cuts.
I was Pryor's biggest fan long before the rest of you stopped making fun of me for it, but Britt is no slouch. He was stuck with arguably even worse quarterbacks than the Browns had, and on some almost-as-bad teams, and under Jeff Fisher...the most overrated coach in NFL history. (Marvin Lewis is number one active, by the way).
Britt can go deep, but is a nice big target on slants and crosses, and is dangerous after the catch. He fits any scheme well, but a West Coast might be best for him.
Coleman was a Baylor wide-out, so he had to learn the NFL route tree, and how to read coverage, from scratch as a rookie who broke his hand...
...ok well he has Greg Pruitt-like explosiveness. He is like a human pinball; he darts this way and that, which is why he could play running back in the NFL if asked to. He also has great long speed, and can be a scary deep threat.
Coleman is 5'11"...not 5'9"...and can play outside, but his best position is in the slot, where he can best exploit his ability to separate, and then run with the ball in his hands.
He is like Britt (except different) (I will pause to let that sink in...are you laughing? Ok I give up). He can play in any scheme, but is probably best in a West Coast, at least as an outside receiver.
I have to check out the bullpen here, and bring up Seth DeValve, a converted wide receiver who saw more and more action throughout 2016.
DeValve is not, and never will be, a tight end. He is a very big wide receiver; an H-back who can plow into people in space and shift around, but is mainly just a big target.
DeValve has yet to prove himself as a core player, but things look pretty good right now, and even if he is displaced, should remain on the roster.
Well, HE is absolutely ideal for a West Coast. DeValve needs to challenge safeties and linebackers inside, and has the speed to go postal and catch deep lobs right down the pipe.
There are different versions of the West Coast. Lindy Infante, here in Cleveland, probably actually inspired Walsh in San Fran when he made Brian Sipe into an MVP and coined the phrase "using short passes as long handoffs".
The underlying principle is lots of slants and crosses, the quarterback getting rid of the ball asap, and attacking the field right in front of him with high-percentage, low-risk passes.
This is why I have to also bring up Cody Kessler and Brock Osweiler, because both are well-suited to this system (Kubiak runs a West Coast too).
Hmm. I'm starting to see a pattern here. But I'll keep it to myself for now.
A lot of people don't get this, so I have to mention it: The spread offense is not what the 49ers dynasty ran. Walsh used two wide receivers, one tight end, and a fullback a lot.
That's just a general point I needed to make. The 49ers had a dominating offensive line, and ran the ball a lot. The tight end and fullback blocked a lot. This wasn't a finesse offense.
Now, Isaiah Crowell has been officially labelled "inconsistent". He had one substandard year, during which he averaged below 4 ypc. But he has averaged over 5 ypc for his career.
I seem to be the only person on Earth who noticed that in 2016, Crowell stopped being blown over by wind gusts, and started looking like his role model, Marshawn Lynch.
I've been around for awhile, you know? So I can tell you, Marshawn Lynch himself didn't mutate into "Beast-mode" until he landed in Seattle.
Crowell has become an excellent receiver out of the backfield, as well. Duke Johnson always was. This fits the Infante offense which predated what Walsh took credit for later.
As this stands, we are looking at a predominantly West Coast passing scheme and a...
Ok well I think that the Browns should zone block a lot. I don't buy the "power run" stuff, especially after free agency. These new guys, two backup centers, Erving and Greco all belong in a zone-blocking scheme, as does Crowell. And Thomas.
...and I have to assume that Hue Jackson will surprise all the pundits and let his offensive coordinator NOT run his "favorite" man/power scheme but I digress:
What about Josh? (Remember the movie "What About Bob" with Bill Murray and Dreifuss? Do I have to keep explaining this stuff? Insert laughter here _____).
While we can't count on him, it is more likely than not that Josh Gordon will be starting on day one. Fortunately, Josh fits all schemes, so it doesn't matter. His presence opposite Britt would definitely put Coleman in the slot, force a 3-wide, and a lot more vertical stuff, but this doesn't have to change the draft.
Given these personnel, Hue Jackson will see a real tight end as a priority no matter what. Zone-blocking minimizes the need for a blocking fullback (or H-back) but a blocking tight end fits perfectly as part of an 11 (spread) alignment, as well as a two-tight end "12", which Hue uses extra offensive linemen to run sometimes when he runs out of tight ends...
Aside from "franchise quarterback", I have just listed all the needs for this offense in this draft.
I don't see OJ Howard as a realistic option if Trubisky or Watson are there at 12, or possibly even Mahomes, but in this particular draft class, this isn't a big problem.
Now, you people need to quit this running back crap, because behind Crowell and Duke is George Atkinson III, who is a huge, massive sleeper. Keep snickering. I'll have the last snicker.
I must close out with this: I hope the Browns can pry Jimmy G out of the Sith Lord's cold, dead hands, but if they can't, any quarterback they draft is not going to start game one.
Here on Earth, Brock Osweiler is neck-and-neck with Cody Kessler for that honor until he is traded. The more I research this, the more I want to give Brock a chance to run a Kubakian passing game which Hue is probably setting up for Cody Kessler anyway.
Now shut up and listen: In Denver, Brock had a strong running game and two really good wide receivers. His defense got him good field position, and didn't force him to come from behind much.
He did a pretty good job. He was, in fact, better than Peyton Manning. He was good enough that John Elway tried to keep him.
He is now a veteran, with a winning record. Hue Jackson is the Head Coach. He will have a BETTER offensive line, probably a better running game, a better tight end, and (with Gordon) even better wide receivers.
Brock also has one edge on Cody: His arm. Regardless of West Coast elements, Hue always wants to threaten deep, to keep the safeties back. He's a little more Coryall than Walsh.
Buzz Kill Bill hates this guy. So don't count him out.
Davis Webb is getting popular again, and I love what I'm reading. He's got football OCD like Brady and Manning. His former head coach says his occasional inaccuracy is explainable:
First, his footwork. Taller quarterbacks have to work harder to consistently set up properly. Second, he "drops his elbow" (whatever that means), which causes the ball to sail high.
This isn't his natural motion, and happens when he's not set up right, so it's easily fixed. Apparently, it didn't happen when he became MVP of the Senior Bowl under Hue Jackson.
Buzz Kill likes him fine, because he's 6'5" with a cannon. That's close enough to Manning and Kelly for him.
Kiper gives us Watson at 12 (with Trubisky gone). Mel thinks the Browns will have to draft either one here, partly for political reasons.
They passed up Wentz last year, and number twelve is one of the many draft picks they got for doing so. Kiper says if they pass up one of these guys here, and they kick butt somewhere else, "heads will roll".
Clearly, Kiper has a much, much, much higher opinion of Watson than Buzz Kill Bill does, and if he is right, then he's right about the pick, too.
Atop the second, he drafts the guy who smashed a woman's face in: Joe Mixon. Mixon was a punk, and should have a second chance--to grow up, regret, and reform. But that video will never go away, and five years from now, people will experience it as if it happened yesterday.
Many people will never forgive him. Kiper and everybody else think Mixon is a great multi'dimensional big play work horse running back, and Mixon would be a great value here.
But Kiper sees running back as a need, and it is not. There will be players with similar grades at positions of real need there, so I really, really doubt that the Browns would take this baggage on with this pick.
At 52, it's safety Marcus Maye. Cool.
McShea goes with OJ Howard, DeShone Kizer, and JuJu Smith-Shuster. I love OJ Howard but hate the rest of this.
Aside from being big and tall, I can't fathom why so many people like DeShone Kizer. McShea has to send Kizer somewhere, so he picked the Browns. But if he were running this team, I really doubt that he'd make this pick.
And the Browns don't need wide receivers. Not that Smith-Shuster isn't pretty good.
Jeff Schudel wrote a great article on the potential Garopollo trade. I agree with every word of it.
Jeff correctly describes Lord Insideous's situation in New England with rare clarity, including the possibility of his committing 40 million bucks to the quarterback position in 2018 should he retain Jimmy G.
Jeff is also spot-on about time working against Bill. As of now, he's said to be unwilling to even consider trading Jimmy G, or alternatively, to demand the first overall pick, another first round pick, and the contents of Fort Knox.
That's how I would start my negotiations too. As I've repeated ad nauseum (sorry btw), unless Bill Belichick expects to replace Tom Brady after the 2017 season, he almost has to let Jimmy go, period.
Jeff is right. The Browns should just sit tight. If the Sith Lord needs to cash in on his young apprentice, he has to do it before the draft, and will make the best deal he can. He loses, rather than gains, leverage every day.
This aint over til it's over.
Two articles I read today line up perfectly: If the Browns trade down from first overall, they need to keep Brock Osweiler. He can start against whichever team drafts Myles Garrett.
Micheal Bode really let Tony Grossi have it over what Tony said about Barnwell. I wouldn't have been that harsh, but can't argue with anything Bode said here.
Micheal, like me, is sick of "analytics", like "moneyball", being used as a snarky perjoritive by "old schoolers" who usually don't even comprehend what people like Paul DePodesta do.
More specificly, Grossi must hang out with Mary Kay, as Micheal says Tony implies that Barnwell is a de facto consultant to the Browns, based on Barnwell's suggestion that the Browns make the Osweiler trade well before they did exactly that.
Personally, even if that were true, so what? Sashi, Paul, and company should keep their ears open to what everybody on their "smart" list is saying.
Is thinking you're smarter than everybody else and refusing to consider their opinions part of being "old school"? If so, that is sad! But it does sound like Buzz Kill Bill, no?
There seems to be some confusion over Hue Jackson's offense, especially as pundits try to determine how potential quarterbacks or other players would "fit".
It gets insane. Because he coached Flacco and traded for Carson Palmer, some think he wants a big strong-armed bomber. Because he coached Andy Dalton, some think he wants an athletic sharpshooter like him.
Because he had AJ Greene, Marvin Jones, those two running backs and Eiffert in Cincinnati and used them accordingly, many think Hue wants to run and go vertical a lot.
The fact is, as Hue himself, and many of his former players have told anybody who would listen, Hue Jackson will run any offensive scheme which fits the players he has.
He inheritted what he inheritted when he got here last season, and the new regime didn't have a lot of time to prep for it's inaugural off season.
Now Hue has a base to work with. His skilled offensive core includes Britt, Coleman, Crowell, and Duke. I omitted Gary Barnidge on purpose; he's not a long-term guy, and is in decline.
These four players will influence who the Browns target in the draft, as well as the offensive scheme Hue Jackson is planning.
I'm trying to work this out as I write this (quiet: Genius at work!).
Well, Britt is kind of a more refined Terrelle Pryor. Pryor's 40 time is significantly faster, but Britt was a track star who set state records in the longer sprints. Pryor has a couple inches on Britt (and damn near every other wide receiver), but this is partly why Britt is more sudden in his breaks/cuts.
I was Pryor's biggest fan long before the rest of you stopped making fun of me for it, but Britt is no slouch. He was stuck with arguably even worse quarterbacks than the Browns had, and on some almost-as-bad teams, and under Jeff Fisher...the most overrated coach in NFL history. (Marvin Lewis is number one active, by the way).
Britt can go deep, but is a nice big target on slants and crosses, and is dangerous after the catch. He fits any scheme well, but a West Coast might be best for him.
Coleman was a Baylor wide-out, so he had to learn the NFL route tree, and how to read coverage, from scratch as a rookie who broke his hand...
...ok well he has Greg Pruitt-like explosiveness. He is like a human pinball; he darts this way and that, which is why he could play running back in the NFL if asked to. He also has great long speed, and can be a scary deep threat.
Coleman is 5'11"...not 5'9"...and can play outside, but his best position is in the slot, where he can best exploit his ability to separate, and then run with the ball in his hands.
He is like Britt (except different) (I will pause to let that sink in...are you laughing? Ok I give up). He can play in any scheme, but is probably best in a West Coast, at least as an outside receiver.
I have to check out the bullpen here, and bring up Seth DeValve, a converted wide receiver who saw more and more action throughout 2016.
DeValve is not, and never will be, a tight end. He is a very big wide receiver; an H-back who can plow into people in space and shift around, but is mainly just a big target.
DeValve has yet to prove himself as a core player, but things look pretty good right now, and even if he is displaced, should remain on the roster.
Well, HE is absolutely ideal for a West Coast. DeValve needs to challenge safeties and linebackers inside, and has the speed to go postal and catch deep lobs right down the pipe.
There are different versions of the West Coast. Lindy Infante, here in Cleveland, probably actually inspired Walsh in San Fran when he made Brian Sipe into an MVP and coined the phrase "using short passes as long handoffs".
The underlying principle is lots of slants and crosses, the quarterback getting rid of the ball asap, and attacking the field right in front of him with high-percentage, low-risk passes.
This is why I have to also bring up Cody Kessler and Brock Osweiler, because both are well-suited to this system (Kubiak runs a West Coast too).
Hmm. I'm starting to see a pattern here. But I'll keep it to myself for now.
A lot of people don't get this, so I have to mention it: The spread offense is not what the 49ers dynasty ran. Walsh used two wide receivers, one tight end, and a fullback a lot.
That's just a general point I needed to make. The 49ers had a dominating offensive line, and ran the ball a lot. The tight end and fullback blocked a lot. This wasn't a finesse offense.
Now, Isaiah Crowell has been officially labelled "inconsistent". He had one substandard year, during which he averaged below 4 ypc. But he has averaged over 5 ypc for his career.
I seem to be the only person on Earth who noticed that in 2016, Crowell stopped being blown over by wind gusts, and started looking like his role model, Marshawn Lynch.
I've been around for awhile, you know? So I can tell you, Marshawn Lynch himself didn't mutate into "Beast-mode" until he landed in Seattle.
Crowell has become an excellent receiver out of the backfield, as well. Duke Johnson always was. This fits the Infante offense which predated what Walsh took credit for later.
As this stands, we are looking at a predominantly West Coast passing scheme and a...
Ok well I think that the Browns should zone block a lot. I don't buy the "power run" stuff, especially after free agency. These new guys, two backup centers, Erving and Greco all belong in a zone-blocking scheme, as does Crowell. And Thomas.
...and I have to assume that Hue Jackson will surprise all the pundits and let his offensive coordinator NOT run his "favorite" man/power scheme but I digress:
What about Josh? (Remember the movie "What About Bob" with Bill Murray and Dreifuss? Do I have to keep explaining this stuff? Insert laughter here _____).
While we can't count on him, it is more likely than not that Josh Gordon will be starting on day one. Fortunately, Josh fits all schemes, so it doesn't matter. His presence opposite Britt would definitely put Coleman in the slot, force a 3-wide, and a lot more vertical stuff, but this doesn't have to change the draft.
Given these personnel, Hue Jackson will see a real tight end as a priority no matter what. Zone-blocking minimizes the need for a blocking fullback (or H-back) but a blocking tight end fits perfectly as part of an 11 (spread) alignment, as well as a two-tight end "12", which Hue uses extra offensive linemen to run sometimes when he runs out of tight ends...
Aside from "franchise quarterback", I have just listed all the needs for this offense in this draft.
I don't see OJ Howard as a realistic option if Trubisky or Watson are there at 12, or possibly even Mahomes, but in this particular draft class, this isn't a big problem.
Now, you people need to quit this running back crap, because behind Crowell and Duke is George Atkinson III, who is a huge, massive sleeper. Keep snickering. I'll have the last snicker.
I must close out with this: I hope the Browns can pry Jimmy G out of the Sith Lord's cold, dead hands, but if they can't, any quarterback they draft is not going to start game one.
Here on Earth, Brock Osweiler is neck-and-neck with Cody Kessler for that honor until he is traded. The more I research this, the more I want to give Brock a chance to run a Kubakian passing game which Hue is probably setting up for Cody Kessler anyway.
Now shut up and listen: In Denver, Brock had a strong running game and two really good wide receivers. His defense got him good field position, and didn't force him to come from behind much.
He did a pretty good job. He was, in fact, better than Peyton Manning. He was good enough that John Elway tried to keep him.
He is now a veteran, with a winning record. Hue Jackson is the Head Coach. He will have a BETTER offensive line, probably a better running game, a better tight end, and (with Gordon) even better wide receivers.
Brock also has one edge on Cody: His arm. Regardless of West Coast elements, Hue always wants to threaten deep, to keep the safeties back. He's a little more Coryall than Walsh.
Buzz Kill Bill hates this guy. So don't count him out.
Davis Webb is getting popular again, and I love what I'm reading. He's got football OCD like Brady and Manning. His former head coach says his occasional inaccuracy is explainable:
First, his footwork. Taller quarterbacks have to work harder to consistently set up properly. Second, he "drops his elbow" (whatever that means), which causes the ball to sail high.
This isn't his natural motion, and happens when he's not set up right, so it's easily fixed. Apparently, it didn't happen when he became MVP of the Senior Bowl under Hue Jackson.
Buzz Kill likes him fine, because he's 6'5" with a cannon. That's close enough to Manning and Kelly for him.
Saturday, April 8, 2017
PFF, Needs, and the Cleveland Browns
I agree with this Dawg Pound Daily article on PFF's accurate listing of Browns needs...mostly.
The edge-rusher thing is a persistant issue here, but I can't fault PFF for listing it based on their data...as I can Browns pundits who should know better.
1: Ogbah, Nassib, and Tyrone Holmes were rookies. Nassib broke his hand. All of them WILL improve.
2: Nate Orchard was injured. He will be back. He will be better than he was as a ROOKIE in 2015.
That's four.
PFF can't account for the utterly predictable improvement of all these players in their second and third seasons. All they know is that there wasn't much pressure from the edge in 2016. So they're not dumbasses.
The addition of Myles Garrett would be a big upgrade for the Denver Broncos, let alone the Browns. It's just that it might give the Browns the scariest pass rush in the NFL, rather than addressing a legitimate need.
Their writers did a great job of going beyond raw data in their discussion of Patrick Mahomes as a viable pick at twelve for the Browns. They stipulate his third in the nation "turnover-worthy" play (ie dumb or high-risk passes thrown) ranking, but cite his intelligence and Hue Jackson's coaching as a good match. At twelve.
Free safety was another need. PFF is more than geeks, because they listed this for Gregg Williams. Williams blitzes a lot, and needs an exceptional free safety in center field to cover the soft spots blitzes expose. That player is not on the current roster.
A penetrating defensive tackle was tailored to Gregg Williams as well. PFF can't really evaluate Xavier Cooper fairly here (nor can I).
Ray Horton's best laid plans flew out the window with the loss to injury of Des Bryant, Nate Orchard, and others. The second year player had no place in a 3-4, and clearly sputtered in 4-man fronts. He can't be counted on.
Thanks to Thomas Moore for a great article.
Now, people on NFL Radio persist in repeating the "multiple needs" and "worst roster in the NFL" mantras as if free agency had never happened, and NONE of the young players on the roster have any talent whatsoever...wow...
They even say "If you don't have that franchise quarterback, you're not going anywhere". Define "anywhere". They need to stop worshipping Buzz Kill Bill.
1: If Josh Gordon returns, the Browns could field an elite, utterly lethal group of wide receivers.
2: If Garrett is added to an already strong and improving group, the Browns should have a pass rush to match the receivers.
3: The Browns already have one of the best offensive lines in football.
4: Isaiah Crowell has averaged around 5 ypc for his career.
Yes, they need a franchise quarterback to get to a Superbowl. But they can win a lot of regular season games with a journeyman, and maybe Gordon and company make Cody Kessler look like Aaron Rodgers.
Think. With your brain.
The edge-rusher thing is a persistant issue here, but I can't fault PFF for listing it based on their data...as I can Browns pundits who should know better.
1: Ogbah, Nassib, and Tyrone Holmes were rookies. Nassib broke his hand. All of them WILL improve.
2: Nate Orchard was injured. He will be back. He will be better than he was as a ROOKIE in 2015.
That's four.
PFF can't account for the utterly predictable improvement of all these players in their second and third seasons. All they know is that there wasn't much pressure from the edge in 2016. So they're not dumbasses.
The addition of Myles Garrett would be a big upgrade for the Denver Broncos, let alone the Browns. It's just that it might give the Browns the scariest pass rush in the NFL, rather than addressing a legitimate need.
Their writers did a great job of going beyond raw data in their discussion of Patrick Mahomes as a viable pick at twelve for the Browns. They stipulate his third in the nation "turnover-worthy" play (ie dumb or high-risk passes thrown) ranking, but cite his intelligence and Hue Jackson's coaching as a good match. At twelve.
Free safety was another need. PFF is more than geeks, because they listed this for Gregg Williams. Williams blitzes a lot, and needs an exceptional free safety in center field to cover the soft spots blitzes expose. That player is not on the current roster.
A penetrating defensive tackle was tailored to Gregg Williams as well. PFF can't really evaluate Xavier Cooper fairly here (nor can I).
Ray Horton's best laid plans flew out the window with the loss to injury of Des Bryant, Nate Orchard, and others. The second year player had no place in a 3-4, and clearly sputtered in 4-man fronts. He can't be counted on.
Thanks to Thomas Moore for a great article.
Now, people on NFL Radio persist in repeating the "multiple needs" and "worst roster in the NFL" mantras as if free agency had never happened, and NONE of the young players on the roster have any talent whatsoever...wow...
They even say "If you don't have that franchise quarterback, you're not going anywhere". Define "anywhere". They need to stop worshipping Buzz Kill Bill.
1: If Josh Gordon returns, the Browns could field an elite, utterly lethal group of wide receivers.
2: If Garrett is added to an already strong and improving group, the Browns should have a pass rush to match the receivers.
3: The Browns already have one of the best offensive lines in football.
4: Isaiah Crowell has averaged around 5 ypc for his career.
Yes, they need a franchise quarterback to get to a Superbowl. But they can win a lot of regular season games with a journeyman, and maybe Gordon and company make Cody Kessler look like Aaron Rodgers.
Think. With your brain.
Friday, April 7, 2017
Patrick Elway Mahomes and the Cleveland Browns
I've become a big Patrick Mahomes fan since Buzz Kill Bill Polian made fun of his 78-yard pass at his pro day, and didn't even rank him in his top five quarterbacks.
Bill lists Trubisky first, Kizer second, Watson third, Webb fourth, and I don't know Kelly or Peterson fifth. He thinks Trubisky has a chance to start eventually, and Watson should develop into a good backup.
I'm kind of surprised Polian didn't nod off as he talked about these quarterbacks. I guess he compares everybody to Jim Kelly and Peyton Manning. Just as he scoffs at "moneyball", he makes fun of "upside", "potential", "arm talent", and just about everything else anybody else says.
I happen to agree with just about every other real expert on these guys, who probably put their heads on their desks and their arms over them when Bill starts talking. Buzz Kill Bill. Believe it.
And Bill's not as smart as I'd thought. He says that if an outside passrusher can't "bend the edge" (get close to the ground to loop around a left tackle) he "doesn't have a chance".
It's all black and white with this guy! No, Ogbah is not a "bender". Dummerville wasn't. Ware wasn't. A lot of guys get it done with hands, bull rushes, and counters.
Myles Garrett has that balance and flexibility, and it's certainly a big advantage. But Bill can't see gray. If you can't bend, you suck. If you're not Kelly or Manning, you're nothing.
I'm getting bummed out talking about him.
Anyway, I'm ignoring him on these quarterbacks.
Why I like Mahomes: For one thing, somebody told Mary Kay that he has quick "processing speed". I've learned to take her statements with a grain of salt lately, however:
When Hue talks about processing speed, he means on the third step of a drop. You've taken the snap and are retreating, looking over your shoulder. You see where the free safety is going, if it really is zone, tight man, off-man, who has leverage, what the Mike is doing, and all that stuff.
You should know, right then, where to throw it. Before you stop and set up, your decision should be made, even if it's your second or third option.
Hue isn't talking about how how fast he can answer a question on a white board. But Mahomes is, by all accounts, studious and intelligent.
In an earlier post, I compared him to John Elway. Elway was a baseball player, too. He was an athletic scrambler who could make crazy all-arm throws nobody else could make, too.
Polian scoffs at this, too, (naturally why tf not?), picking at his "mechanics", as if the circumstances and results are irrelevant.
But it's a positive, and not a negative. NORMAL quarterbacks need a "stable platform" with consistent foot placement in relation to the target to be accurate. The whole body must be lined up, and the motion the same every time.
Tom Brady epitomizes this, as he shifts around, moving his feet constantly, and aligning his body with his target.
These are smart rules to go by, and they do apply to Mahomes and Elway too. However, these two guys are very rare. They are almost as strong and accurate while running, leaping, or falling down. Overhand or sidearm. They are "naturals".
Bill makes fun of this. Jim and Peyton couldn't do that stuff, therefore it doesn't matter.
It matters. John Elway started as a rookie. He sucked. It wasn't all his fault, as he didn't have much of a running game, and his offensive line wasn't that great. But certainly, part of the problem was that things happened too fast for him.
In year two, he made a big jump. He wasn't yet who he ultimately became, but he started engineering comeback wins. He stayed in the pocket more, and made quicker, smarter decisions. By the end of that season, he had arrived, as well WE remember.
But here's the thing: John Elway was at his best when things broke down, and when he was in trouble. He did amazing things. Running full speed and throwing a 22- yard dart to the opposite sideline. Any coach reading this just cringed "you NEVER do that! It gets deflected. It gets picked off with nobody to stop the return!"
But Elway got away with it, because it was fast and accurate, whereas any other quarterback would have to throw it higher and softer, and couldn't be nearly as accurate. Elway did this a lot. He scrambled left, and twisted his body around to throw a bullet back the way he came.
Yes, he became consistent and dependable when he mastered the pocket and shined up his mechanics, but he always had that great, natural, almost magical ability to improvise when things went to hell. The mechanical adjustments raised his floor, but his ennate talent is what made him great.
Mahomes has all of that.
Will Patrick work as hard to stay in the pocket and be mechanicly consistent? I think so.
Will he work hard and listen to his coach? Yes.
Can he process information fast enough? I hope so. A lot of former quarterbacks think so. They just say he will need time, and isn't ready yet. For some insight on this unique, rare athlete, click that link.
Jim Miller just mocked DeShaun Watson to the Browns at 12 (Trubisky was gone).
Whoa in the AFC North? No! You need to have a cannon to cut through that wind, like Dalton, Sipe, Montana, Bill Nelson, and howitzers like that!
Miller stresses that a quarterback can safely strengthen his throwing arm. He mentioned a couple excercises with light weights, and sometimes ropes, used to recover from rotator cuff surgery.
Miller points to Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady as initially mediocre arms that became very strong. Miller says he himself had an average arm when he was drafted, and added velocity later (he was known for his arm).
That's the only issue I have with Watson: the low velocity. He is a leader and a winner. You can't argue with that. At twelve? Sure! He'll be a good backup in a couple years chuh!
I kind of think the Browns will land Trubisky, Watson, or Mahomes in this draft. I also kind of think that Hue Jackson will be good with any of these three, even though he probably favors Trubisky.
Last year, it was unthinkable to pundits that any coach or GM could like both Goff and Wentz. I still can't figure that out. It's not possible for a talent expert to grade two quarterbacks as approximately equal? Where does this come from? Why? Who says?
And listen: Hue Jackson signed off on the trade-downs. I'm sure he would have been happy to have Carson Wentz, but was as happy as Sashi Brown to rake in a bonanza of draft picks instead. Stop saying he "didn't like" Carson Wentz!
They got the extra second round pick and 12 overall this season off those two trades, so stop declaring it a mistake, too. We'll see 2-3 years from now.
When Miller took Watson in the name of the Browns, Pat Kirwan immediately repeated that he would take Trubisky if he could sit for a year, or Watson if he needed to play right away.
Miller is sick of the issue, which is why he didn't bring up Cody Kessler again. Pat pretends to listen, but doesn't. For Pat Kirwan, Cody Kessler is a figment of somebody's imagination.
For that matter, Jim Miller is the loudest professional voice wanting to know why Brock Osweiler might not even get a chance to compete with him. Miller thinks he can be better than he was in Denver under Hue Jackson.
You're all over-analyzing what the Hue and Sashi are saying about these guys, too. Hue Jackson is deliberately neutral on every quarterback or potential quarterback. The organization is not even allowed to talk to Osweiler per the idiotic players agreement.
You expect him to hand Kessler the starting gig in early April? You want him to say nice things about Osweiler, who might not even make it to training camp? See his final comments on Josh Gordon last season.
Cody Kessler is the presumptive starter as of now. Obviously. Hue should just say "figure it out!"
I'm still rooting for Jimmy G though. We can pencil him in as the day one starter, anyhow.
Bill lists Trubisky first, Kizer second, Watson third, Webb fourth, and I don't know Kelly or Peterson fifth. He thinks Trubisky has a chance to start eventually, and Watson should develop into a good backup.
I'm kind of surprised Polian didn't nod off as he talked about these quarterbacks. I guess he compares everybody to Jim Kelly and Peyton Manning. Just as he scoffs at "moneyball", he makes fun of "upside", "potential", "arm talent", and just about everything else anybody else says.
I happen to agree with just about every other real expert on these guys, who probably put their heads on their desks and their arms over them when Bill starts talking. Buzz Kill Bill. Believe it.
And Bill's not as smart as I'd thought. He says that if an outside passrusher can't "bend the edge" (get close to the ground to loop around a left tackle) he "doesn't have a chance".
It's all black and white with this guy! No, Ogbah is not a "bender". Dummerville wasn't. Ware wasn't. A lot of guys get it done with hands, bull rushes, and counters.
Myles Garrett has that balance and flexibility, and it's certainly a big advantage. But Bill can't see gray. If you can't bend, you suck. If you're not Kelly or Manning, you're nothing.
I'm getting bummed out talking about him.
Anyway, I'm ignoring him on these quarterbacks.
Why I like Mahomes: For one thing, somebody told Mary Kay that he has quick "processing speed". I've learned to take her statements with a grain of salt lately, however:
When Hue talks about processing speed, he means on the third step of a drop. You've taken the snap and are retreating, looking over your shoulder. You see where the free safety is going, if it really is zone, tight man, off-man, who has leverage, what the Mike is doing, and all that stuff.
You should know, right then, where to throw it. Before you stop and set up, your decision should be made, even if it's your second or third option.
Hue isn't talking about how how fast he can answer a question on a white board. But Mahomes is, by all accounts, studious and intelligent.
In an earlier post, I compared him to John Elway. Elway was a baseball player, too. He was an athletic scrambler who could make crazy all-arm throws nobody else could make, too.
Polian scoffs at this, too, (naturally why tf not?), picking at his "mechanics", as if the circumstances and results are irrelevant.
But it's a positive, and not a negative. NORMAL quarterbacks need a "stable platform" with consistent foot placement in relation to the target to be accurate. The whole body must be lined up, and the motion the same every time.
Tom Brady epitomizes this, as he shifts around, moving his feet constantly, and aligning his body with his target.
These are smart rules to go by, and they do apply to Mahomes and Elway too. However, these two guys are very rare. They are almost as strong and accurate while running, leaping, or falling down. Overhand or sidearm. They are "naturals".
Bill makes fun of this. Jim and Peyton couldn't do that stuff, therefore it doesn't matter.
It matters. John Elway started as a rookie. He sucked. It wasn't all his fault, as he didn't have much of a running game, and his offensive line wasn't that great. But certainly, part of the problem was that things happened too fast for him.
In year two, he made a big jump. He wasn't yet who he ultimately became, but he started engineering comeback wins. He stayed in the pocket more, and made quicker, smarter decisions. By the end of that season, he had arrived, as well WE remember.
But here's the thing: John Elway was at his best when things broke down, and when he was in trouble. He did amazing things. Running full speed and throwing a 22- yard dart to the opposite sideline. Any coach reading this just cringed "you NEVER do that! It gets deflected. It gets picked off with nobody to stop the return!"
But Elway got away with it, because it was fast and accurate, whereas any other quarterback would have to throw it higher and softer, and couldn't be nearly as accurate. Elway did this a lot. He scrambled left, and twisted his body around to throw a bullet back the way he came.
Yes, he became consistent and dependable when he mastered the pocket and shined up his mechanics, but he always had that great, natural, almost magical ability to improvise when things went to hell. The mechanical adjustments raised his floor, but his ennate talent is what made him great.
Mahomes has all of that.
Will Patrick work as hard to stay in the pocket and be mechanicly consistent? I think so.
Will he work hard and listen to his coach? Yes.
Can he process information fast enough? I hope so. A lot of former quarterbacks think so. They just say he will need time, and isn't ready yet. For some insight on this unique, rare athlete, click that link.
Jim Miller just mocked DeShaun Watson to the Browns at 12 (Trubisky was gone).
Whoa in the AFC North? No! You need to have a cannon to cut through that wind, like Dalton, Sipe, Montana, Bill Nelson, and howitzers like that!
Miller stresses that a quarterback can safely strengthen his throwing arm. He mentioned a couple excercises with light weights, and sometimes ropes, used to recover from rotator cuff surgery.
Miller points to Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady as initially mediocre arms that became very strong. Miller says he himself had an average arm when he was drafted, and added velocity later (he was known for his arm).
That's the only issue I have with Watson: the low velocity. He is a leader and a winner. You can't argue with that. At twelve? Sure! He'll be a good backup in a couple years chuh!
I kind of think the Browns will land Trubisky, Watson, or Mahomes in this draft. I also kind of think that Hue Jackson will be good with any of these three, even though he probably favors Trubisky.
Last year, it was unthinkable to pundits that any coach or GM could like both Goff and Wentz. I still can't figure that out. It's not possible for a talent expert to grade two quarterbacks as approximately equal? Where does this come from? Why? Who says?
And listen: Hue Jackson signed off on the trade-downs. I'm sure he would have been happy to have Carson Wentz, but was as happy as Sashi Brown to rake in a bonanza of draft picks instead. Stop saying he "didn't like" Carson Wentz!
They got the extra second round pick and 12 overall this season off those two trades, so stop declaring it a mistake, too. We'll see 2-3 years from now.
When Miller took Watson in the name of the Browns, Pat Kirwan immediately repeated that he would take Trubisky if he could sit for a year, or Watson if he needed to play right away.
Miller is sick of the issue, which is why he didn't bring up Cody Kessler again. Pat pretends to listen, but doesn't. For Pat Kirwan, Cody Kessler is a figment of somebody's imagination.
For that matter, Jim Miller is the loudest professional voice wanting to know why Brock Osweiler might not even get a chance to compete with him. Miller thinks he can be better than he was in Denver under Hue Jackson.
You're all over-analyzing what the Hue and Sashi are saying about these guys, too. Hue Jackson is deliberately neutral on every quarterback or potential quarterback. The organization is not even allowed to talk to Osweiler per the idiotic players agreement.
You expect him to hand Kessler the starting gig in early April? You want him to say nice things about Osweiler, who might not even make it to training camp? See his final comments on Josh Gordon last season.
Cody Kessler is the presumptive starter as of now. Obviously. Hue should just say "figure it out!"
I'm still rooting for Jimmy G though. We can pencil him in as the day one starter, anyhow.
Monday, April 3, 2017
Thanks for the Backup, Jimmy Johnson
Jimmy Johnson knows how to build teams, and he's one of the people Paul DePodesta interrogated as he was figuring out how to rebuild the franchise.
But what does he know? I mean come on, three years?
Well, for better or worse, the Browns are following the Johnson model. I just wish there were more Troy Aikmans around.
I need to repeat this here: Jimmy Haslam was stuck with third or sixth choices for Head Coach until he landed Hue Jackson. Hue Jackson is the guy he wanted. He's not going to fire him any time soon. This is different, and Jimmy is not a spoiled brat.
He is doing something new here with this front office and it's structure. He was the first one to say, repeatedly, that this project would take several years. He is the guy who set this up.
Some of the radio guys cite Ray Horton's termination as some sort of sign of "things to come". But Gregg Williams was not available in 2015, and I believe Horton was a Jackson favorite, and another emergency hiring.
I'm not bashing the guy, as he lost a bunch of key players to injury, and had a bunch of rookies. But I respectfully submit that Gregg Williams' record speaks for itself. Their resumes make this a clear choice.
Johnson is talking about 2018. The Browns should contend in 2018. Not 2017. 2018. And by "contend", he means get close to the playoffs, and not win a Superbowl. It sucks that I have to translate english into english all the time.
The Browns do have to make the majority of those extra draft picks work, however, like Jimmy did. Jimmy caught a break, as he was able to land Aikman right away.
I like Wentz, but don't believe he will become like Aikman. We can revisit this in a couple years, and I bet the Browns win those trades.
Waiting til next season isn't rational. Ariens summed these quarterbacks up: The talent is here in this draft--and a lot of it. Only just one guy can be ready to start in the NFL.
So you draft one of these guys and put him in the bank til next year, or even 2019.
If you expect the Browns to draft in the top five again, or to find a willing trade partner to move up, or for all these great awesome prospects to be great in 2017, you are talking about the mystical franchise quarterback tree. Let me channel DePodesta here: That does not compute.
Next year is next year. If the Browns have a shot at a top quarterback, they'll probably go for it anyway, but they can't count on it. They can't count on it. They can't count on it, so they need to draft a project quarterback this year. Isn't this obvious?
As for drafting high again, that's simpletonian. Gregg Williams is here now, all those rookies have a year under their belts, Myles Garrett is probably here, the offensive line will be one of the best in the NFL, and Kessler or yes, even Osweiller, will have one of the easiest starting gigs in football.
A franchise quarterback will not be required to win games with the post-draft supporting cast that will surround that position. This offense and defense could both rank in the top half in 2017.
No, that's not optimistic. Ask Numberfire, or PFF. The talent is already here. That's a fact. This team should win at least six games with a journeyman quarterback.
...and have a hard time trying to land a top quarterback in the 2018 draft.
My guess is Trubisky at 12 or after a trade-up from there, but beyond that, I don't know. Trubisky could well be gone much too soon. I can guess that Mahomes is Plan B, because this is Hue Jackson, and I doubt he's ever met a quarterback he can't turn into a monster. Mahomes has astronomical upside (to go with his astronomical bust potential -shiver-).
So what if OJ Howard, Malik Hooker, or Jonathan Allen make it to twelve? Think the Browns might win an extra game or two because of one of these guys?
Jimmy Johnson would take a shot at one of these quarterbacks, because he would expect to win too many games to guarantee a franchise guy in the 2018 draft. He's probably already said that, because it's so obvious.
Just a note here, by the way: Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith had the best offensive line in the NFL. Just sayin.
But what does he know? I mean come on, three years?
Well, for better or worse, the Browns are following the Johnson model. I just wish there were more Troy Aikmans around.
I need to repeat this here: Jimmy Haslam was stuck with third or sixth choices for Head Coach until he landed Hue Jackson. Hue Jackson is the guy he wanted. He's not going to fire him any time soon. This is different, and Jimmy is not a spoiled brat.
He is doing something new here with this front office and it's structure. He was the first one to say, repeatedly, that this project would take several years. He is the guy who set this up.
Some of the radio guys cite Ray Horton's termination as some sort of sign of "things to come". But Gregg Williams was not available in 2015, and I believe Horton was a Jackson favorite, and another emergency hiring.
I'm not bashing the guy, as he lost a bunch of key players to injury, and had a bunch of rookies. But I respectfully submit that Gregg Williams' record speaks for itself. Their resumes make this a clear choice.
Johnson is talking about 2018. The Browns should contend in 2018. Not 2017. 2018. And by "contend", he means get close to the playoffs, and not win a Superbowl. It sucks that I have to translate english into english all the time.
The Browns do have to make the majority of those extra draft picks work, however, like Jimmy did. Jimmy caught a break, as he was able to land Aikman right away.
I like Wentz, but don't believe he will become like Aikman. We can revisit this in a couple years, and I bet the Browns win those trades.
Waiting til next season isn't rational. Ariens summed these quarterbacks up: The talent is here in this draft--and a lot of it. Only just one guy can be ready to start in the NFL.
So you draft one of these guys and put him in the bank til next year, or even 2019.
If you expect the Browns to draft in the top five again, or to find a willing trade partner to move up, or for all these great awesome prospects to be great in 2017, you are talking about the mystical franchise quarterback tree. Let me channel DePodesta here: That does not compute.
Next year is next year. If the Browns have a shot at a top quarterback, they'll probably go for it anyway, but they can't count on it. They can't count on it. They can't count on it, so they need to draft a project quarterback this year. Isn't this obvious?
As for drafting high again, that's simpletonian. Gregg Williams is here now, all those rookies have a year under their belts, Myles Garrett is probably here, the offensive line will be one of the best in the NFL, and Kessler or yes, even Osweiller, will have one of the easiest starting gigs in football.
A franchise quarterback will not be required to win games with the post-draft supporting cast that will surround that position. This offense and defense could both rank in the top half in 2017.
No, that's not optimistic. Ask Numberfire, or PFF. The talent is already here. That's a fact. This team should win at least six games with a journeyman quarterback.
...and have a hard time trying to land a top quarterback in the 2018 draft.
My guess is Trubisky at 12 or after a trade-up from there, but beyond that, I don't know. Trubisky could well be gone much too soon. I can guess that Mahomes is Plan B, because this is Hue Jackson, and I doubt he's ever met a quarterback he can't turn into a monster. Mahomes has astronomical upside (to go with his astronomical bust potential -shiver-).
So what if OJ Howard, Malik Hooker, or Jonathan Allen make it to twelve? Think the Browns might win an extra game or two because of one of these guys?
Jimmy Johnson would take a shot at one of these quarterbacks, because he would expect to win too many games to guarantee a franchise guy in the 2018 draft. He's probably already said that, because it's so obvious.
Just a note here, by the way: Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith had the best offensive line in the NFL. Just sayin.
Saturday, April 1, 2017
Cleveland Browns Pundits: Dumber and Dumbest
It's been frustrating to read a lot of what I've read lately about the Cleveland Browns, including by people I respect, like Terry Pluto.
Generally speaking, it's about what the Browns allegedly need, or should do, or intend to do.
Here, I'll start with what the Browns actually do need:
1: A super free safety.
2: A franchise quarterback.
3: A tall starting cornerback.
That's it for the real, confirmed, immediate needs. Now I'll list the possible needs, which may or may not be filled by young and improving (or underrated) players already on the roster:
1: A 3-tech defensive tackle.
2: A safety/linebacker hybrid; Gregg Williams' nickel linebacker.
Now for the long-term (dynastic) needs:
1: A future starting left tackle.
2: A real tight end. (Actually I could have put this on the first list, since Barnidge won't block and Telfer can't get open).
I could also have put franchise quarterback on this list, since any drafted quarterback will not be a year one starter.
But that's pretty much it. That is the REAL list. Now for the BS lists. Here I will list positions which others list as "needs", but which have at least three YOUNG, IMPROVING players competing for them. That is, positions which it is negative and hysterical to list as needs. These are:
Right tackle, wide receiver, linebacker, and edge-rusher.
Now, nearly every position on this roster, like most rosters, could use an upgrade, unless you have the first-team all-pro/pro bowl roster.
This might be causing some of the confusion here. In Cleveland, if a guy isn't a Pro Bowler yet, he needs to be replaced.
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, then you are an analyst:
The progress and growth of young players is a very strong, universal, and consistent trend. The biggest single upward spike comes between year one and year two. The largest longer-term quantifiable improvement happens between year one and year four.
This varies by position. For running backs, it's much, much shorter. For offensive linemen and quarterbacks, it's often a year longer.
But it's a strong trend, you see? And the Browns have the youngest roster in the NFL.
This is why saying things like "the Browns need a right tackle" when Cam Erving and Shon Coleman are two of the four players who will be fighting over that position is downright ignorant.
"The Browns need wide receivers" is a rediculous assumption. I mean, you can doubt Payton, or Higgins, or Lewis, but here you are writing all three of them off at the same time? That is irrational.
Sashi Brown and company have screwed up (I call his end of the Pryor thing a probable screw-up btw), but deserve credit for the atmosphere they have created on this team at positions "of need".
At wide receiver, Britt and Coleman are the top two, although in a sane world Josh Gordon tops them both (as long as he can avoid spitting on a sidewalk). But three second year players will be fighting for the third and fourth, or fourth and fifth spots.
And while you're diagnosing needs, you need to stop rubber-stamping Seth DeValve as a "tight end". DeValve is a receiver.
Seth DeValve is often going to be a third to fifth option himself, and that sort of makes the "we need wide receivers" declaration exponentially dumber.
I have finally "got some film" on this front office, and can now tell you more about how they operate and what they're up to:
Now that they added three offensive linemen (including two high-profile starters) in one gulp, I see the plan: I honestly believe that he will continue to "flood" position-groups like this, and love it.
Check out the offensive line now: Before free agency, there were two young athletic contenders to take over center, but now Tretter is the default starter. Including Greco, the Browns have five centers. FOUR will be fighting over the backup roster spot.
John Greco was actually a very good right guard and a decent center. He is now a backup. Before he came to the Browns, he was a starting right tackle. Because he's an older guy, they're looking beyond him, but because he's so damn versatile, I expect the Browns to try to extend him...for peanuts...as a backup...for a couple more years. Or not.
Sashi's free agency blitze had more intended consequences:
Cam Erving is now a right tackle, period. Drafting a pure center is unthinkable.
Terry Pluto is skeptical of Erving at right tackle, but then he thinks they should get rid of Josh Gordon, so...
No, in fact, after doing some more research, I now expect Erving to beat out Shon Coleman et al, win the right tackle job, and be at least average in 2017...unless the Browns draft Joe Thomas's protege, in which case it's a fight.
This 2017 draft is historicly deep in defensive backs and tight ends. It's also full of running backs, and has a lot of passrushers.
I expect Sashi Brown to exploit this. He might draft two tight ends, and three or even four defensive backs. In this draft, he can get great talent round(S) cheaper at these positions, and set up another "tournament" as around twelve players fight for ten survival spots, eight active spots, and four starting spots.
Competition is good. It forces us to do our best, and be all we can be. And not all the losers just get released. A few are nursed along on practice squads. They are like penny stocks.
If I'm right, by the end of this draft, Sashi Brown will have addressed every offensive weakness (except franchise quarterback, possibly), and...
No, I'm telling you, right now on April first, except seriously, I expect Sashi Brown to complete the core of a potential Superbowl team before training camp (disclaimer: I don't know about a franchise quarterback.)
English is my first language, so I need to explain: I did not predict a Superbowl in 2017, or even 2018. I'm just saying that the YOUNG CORE of the team he is building will be GOOD, and getting better.
Also, at no point did I declare Sashi Brown God or my boyfreind DO YOU UNDERSTAND THE E N G L I S H WORDS THAT ARE COMING OUT OF MY MOUTH Gdammit!?!
Terry and Mary Kay were bad, but McNanoman takes the cake this week, as he mangles what Bruce Ariens said about the 2017 quarterback draft class.
Ariens restated the obvious: This is a DEEP quarterback class in terms of T A L E N T, but all but devoid of guys who could start in 2017.
Ariens says only one could start this season. One goober guessed it was DeShone Kizer, but I told you weeks ago it was Peterson. (Disclaimer: Nathan Peterson is pretty good).
That aside, McNanoman's conclusion from all this is that the Browns need to identify and draft this mysterious opening day starter.
Thank God this guy isn't running the Cleveland Browns. In year two of a total rebuild, if you have a brain and a servicable starter, you ignore readiness and draft the MOST TALENTED quarterback.
McManoman was never my favorite pundit, but this was profoundly clueless. I'm awash in a sea of dumbassitude here, and it keeps getting deeper every day.
We need to trade a high draft pick for a division rival backup quarterback to replace a statistically superior quarterback who was superior as a rookie on an inferior team.
We need to replace Kessler with whatever draftable quarterback Bruce Ariens says could start as a rookie, regardless of talent.
We need a wide receiver. A running back. A right tackle. Kessler was forced on Jackson by Brown. Scouts were fired for recommending Wentz.
It's down to Peter Smith and me now. I used to think "Idiocracy" was just a funny movie, but it's actually happening. And all these people can vote.
Load up on freeze dried food, gold, and ammo.
Generally speaking, it's about what the Browns allegedly need, or should do, or intend to do.
Here, I'll start with what the Browns actually do need:
1: A super free safety.
2: A franchise quarterback.
3: A tall starting cornerback.
That's it for the real, confirmed, immediate needs. Now I'll list the possible needs, which may or may not be filled by young and improving (or underrated) players already on the roster:
1: A 3-tech defensive tackle.
2: A safety/linebacker hybrid; Gregg Williams' nickel linebacker.
Now for the long-term (dynastic) needs:
1: A future starting left tackle.
2: A real tight end. (Actually I could have put this on the first list, since Barnidge won't block and Telfer can't get open).
I could also have put franchise quarterback on this list, since any drafted quarterback will not be a year one starter.
But that's pretty much it. That is the REAL list. Now for the BS lists. Here I will list positions which others list as "needs", but which have at least three YOUNG, IMPROVING players competing for them. That is, positions which it is negative and hysterical to list as needs. These are:
Right tackle, wide receiver, linebacker, and edge-rusher.
Now, nearly every position on this roster, like most rosters, could use an upgrade, unless you have the first-team all-pro/pro bowl roster.
This might be causing some of the confusion here. In Cleveland, if a guy isn't a Pro Bowler yet, he needs to be replaced.
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, then you are an analyst:
The progress and growth of young players is a very strong, universal, and consistent trend. The biggest single upward spike comes between year one and year two. The largest longer-term quantifiable improvement happens between year one and year four.
This varies by position. For running backs, it's much, much shorter. For offensive linemen and quarterbacks, it's often a year longer.
But it's a strong trend, you see? And the Browns have the youngest roster in the NFL.
This is why saying things like "the Browns need a right tackle" when Cam Erving and Shon Coleman are two of the four players who will be fighting over that position is downright ignorant.
"The Browns need wide receivers" is a rediculous assumption. I mean, you can doubt Payton, or Higgins, or Lewis, but here you are writing all three of them off at the same time? That is irrational.
Sashi Brown and company have screwed up (I call his end of the Pryor thing a probable screw-up btw), but deserve credit for the atmosphere they have created on this team at positions "of need".
At wide receiver, Britt and Coleman are the top two, although in a sane world Josh Gordon tops them both (as long as he can avoid spitting on a sidewalk). But three second year players will be fighting for the third and fourth, or fourth and fifth spots.
And while you're diagnosing needs, you need to stop rubber-stamping Seth DeValve as a "tight end". DeValve is a receiver.
Seth DeValve is often going to be a third to fifth option himself, and that sort of makes the "we need wide receivers" declaration exponentially dumber.
I have finally "got some film" on this front office, and can now tell you more about how they operate and what they're up to:
Now that they added three offensive linemen (including two high-profile starters) in one gulp, I see the plan: I honestly believe that he will continue to "flood" position-groups like this, and love it.
Check out the offensive line now: Before free agency, there were two young athletic contenders to take over center, but now Tretter is the default starter. Including Greco, the Browns have five centers. FOUR will be fighting over the backup roster spot.
John Greco was actually a very good right guard and a decent center. He is now a backup. Before he came to the Browns, he was a starting right tackle. Because he's an older guy, they're looking beyond him, but because he's so damn versatile, I expect the Browns to try to extend him...for peanuts...as a backup...for a couple more years. Or not.
Sashi's free agency blitze had more intended consequences:
Cam Erving is now a right tackle, period. Drafting a pure center is unthinkable.
Terry Pluto is skeptical of Erving at right tackle, but then he thinks they should get rid of Josh Gordon, so...
No, in fact, after doing some more research, I now expect Erving to beat out Shon Coleman et al, win the right tackle job, and be at least average in 2017...unless the Browns draft Joe Thomas's protege, in which case it's a fight.
This 2017 draft is historicly deep in defensive backs and tight ends. It's also full of running backs, and has a lot of passrushers.
I expect Sashi Brown to exploit this. He might draft two tight ends, and three or even four defensive backs. In this draft, he can get great talent round(S) cheaper at these positions, and set up another "tournament" as around twelve players fight for ten survival spots, eight active spots, and four starting spots.
Competition is good. It forces us to do our best, and be all we can be. And not all the losers just get released. A few are nursed along on practice squads. They are like penny stocks.
If I'm right, by the end of this draft, Sashi Brown will have addressed every offensive weakness (except franchise quarterback, possibly), and...
No, I'm telling you, right now on April first, except seriously, I expect Sashi Brown to complete the core of a potential Superbowl team before training camp (disclaimer: I don't know about a franchise quarterback.)
English is my first language, so I need to explain: I did not predict a Superbowl in 2017, or even 2018. I'm just saying that the YOUNG CORE of the team he is building will be GOOD, and getting better.
Also, at no point did I declare Sashi Brown God or my boyfreind DO YOU UNDERSTAND THE E N G L I S H WORDS THAT ARE COMING OUT OF MY MOUTH Gdammit!?!
Terry and Mary Kay were bad, but McNanoman takes the cake this week, as he mangles what Bruce Ariens said about the 2017 quarterback draft class.
Ariens restated the obvious: This is a DEEP quarterback class in terms of T A L E N T, but all but devoid of guys who could start in 2017.
Ariens says only one could start this season. One goober guessed it was DeShone Kizer, but I told you weeks ago it was Peterson. (Disclaimer: Nathan Peterson is pretty good).
That aside, McNanoman's conclusion from all this is that the Browns need to identify and draft this mysterious opening day starter.
Thank God this guy isn't running the Cleveland Browns. In year two of a total rebuild, if you have a brain and a servicable starter, you ignore readiness and draft the MOST TALENTED quarterback.
McManoman was never my favorite pundit, but this was profoundly clueless. I'm awash in a sea of dumbassitude here, and it keeps getting deeper every day.
We need to trade a high draft pick for a division rival backup quarterback to replace a statistically superior quarterback who was superior as a rookie on an inferior team.
We need to replace Kessler with whatever draftable quarterback Bruce Ariens says could start as a rookie, regardless of talent.
We need a wide receiver. A running back. A right tackle. Kessler was forced on Jackson by Brown. Scouts were fired for recommending Wentz.
It's down to Peter Smith and me now. I used to think "Idiocracy" was just a funny movie, but it's actually happening. And all these people can vote.
Load up on freeze dried food, gold, and ammo.
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