A few comments ahead of the final roster cuts:
1: Undrafted rookie safety Don Jones (Arkansas) may be getting sold short, and has a shot to make the final roster (or at least the practice squad).
Jones is an impressive athlete who was also a terrific running back before focussing on safety. He's not like Joe Schobert or Scoobie Wright, ie an insinctive player, and doesn't have much college experience. He needs work on his coverage skills.
At 5'11 1/2", 193 lbs., he has the hips, quickness, and speed to play cornerback as well as safety, and could become a cornerback project. He had a fine special teams (as well as defensive) performance in the fourth preseason game, and could be a core special teams player. For that matter, he is a potential returner.
The depth chart projections I've read universally kick this kid to the curb in favor of more experienced safeties. Well, a rebuilding team at least one season away from contention could well lean toward youth and potential when the safety position is stacked four deep already.
2: Andrew Hawkins is NOT safe. I cannot fathom why everybody favors him over Darius Jennings, despite Hawk's age and injuries, and what the the two of them have done.
Once again, talent is more important here than experience, and the future more important than the past. Jennings is, in fact, probably the better player, even now, period. He gets open and he catches. Stop with the "experience" stuff! Ask Paul Kruger!
3: I liked the Dawgs By Nature roster projection, although it's already been screwed up by the release of Desir and trade of Gilbert. They had both these guys making the cut (Desir at safety)
I would have been wrong there too. But this gives my man Don Jones a better chance, and I would guess Tracy Howard, too.
These guys hypotheticly retained four running backs, including Rahim Mostert. Most of the other projections tried to sneak him onto the practice squad, where he'd probably get swiped by another team.
Hue wants to run the ball a lot (more than he did in preseason). Watson can back up Crowell, but an injured Duke Johnson would eliminate the lightening part of thunder and lightening. Mostert came from nowhere, but is not nobody. I agree with Dawgs By Nature, and think he makes it.
Now, the Browns just signed Colquit, released by Denver. You people need to back off on Sashi Brown. He just got a fourth round pick for nothing.
Getting a sixth round pick from the Steelers for Justin Gilbert beats the hell out of cutting him, too. I'm surprised the Steelers wanted him bad enough to take on his inflated salary.
The Steelers are extremely competent with personnel, and this took guts for Sashi to execute. If Gilbert performs a sudden head extraction, he'll look bad for this.
But check this out: If he was released, there's a good chance he'd be a Steeler anyway. This way, the Browns not only get the draft pick, but the Steelers have to pay Gilbert's salary. That's analytics, see?
Saturday, September 3, 2016
Friday, September 2, 2016
Paea, the Defensive Line, Ray Horton, and the Browns
Stephen Paea is a nice addition to Ray Horton's defense. Per Dawgs By Nature, he was so-so in Chicago after they drafted him in the second round, until his contract year, at which time he went apeshit and was a top three NFL tackle.
Washington immediately overpaid him and put him in their 3-4, where he "disappointed".
His predraft scouting reports describe an immovable bull-rushing run-stuffing pocket collapser with a surprisingly explosive first step.
I'm not sure of Washington's scheme, but it probably isn't like Horton's. Paea's greatest success was as a defensive tackle in Chicago's 4-3, and here at right defensive end, nose tackle, and in the 4-3 he will do the same things.
Paea is very much like Jamie Meder, with freakish brute strength and great leverage. He's quicker out of the blocks and shorter, but doesn't have as much range.
One report expected him to rotate in on run downs, but he's a dusruptive force against the pass as well. Setting up between center and guard or guard and tackle, he gets penetration before a blocker can reach him. He can't be knocked off balance or rerouted with a punch.
And inside blocker can sometimes ride him outside, but gives ground and steps on the quarterback's toes. Because he's short with short arms, Paea can't disengage consistently, and he's quick, but not fast.
That is, he's explosive from a standing start, but can be outrun; he mainly penetrates in a straight line, messing things up, but if he doesn't nail somebody quickly that's usually it. He does force people into the arms of his team mates, though.
As a two-gapper, he's just about impossible to budge, as well.
Horton's inside down rushers are not required to get sacks, although he'll take what he can get. They are required to collapse pockets and make messes, and Paea can do that. He is 28 years old, and will upgrade two positions.
I insist that we have yet to see what X Cooper can do at RDE, but Shelton is making me nervous.
This signing wasn't "urgent", however, and the notion that the 6'1" Paea is here to replace Des Bryant is laughable. While Danny Shelton is making us all nervous (I keep thinking of that ankle flexibility thing), X Cooper is only a second year player you have circling the bowl already, Meder is here, and Hughes and Hassan--this is getting rediculous.
Fans seem to be ignoring the linebackers and blaming the lack of pressure on quarterbacks excusively on the defensive line. Last season, you blamed weakness against the run all on the defensive line too. I guess everything bad that happens is all the defensive line's fault.
Well, Virginia, out of the 3-4, the fourth passrusher is not a defensive lineman, and the defensive linemen are outnumbered. Nor do they all always attack, except on obvious passing downs.
The opposing offenses have been picking up and neutralizing the fourth passrusher (except for Cam Johnson, and more recently Shobert and Ogbah).
Well, Ogbah and Shobert haven't been used that way until now, get it?
Hughes, Meder, and (so far) Shelton aren't even here to rush the passer. While the defensive line does one-gap and penetrate, their object is to move the line of scrimmage back, forcing runs outside, or else driving offensive linemen into the pocket.
Ray dreams of guys like Hassan, who can actually turn that into sacks, but they're exceedingly rare (btw GOOD JOB SASHI BROWN).
Most of preseason has been vanilla on both sides so far. It's easy to see with the Browns, as there hasn't been much presnap motion (to help RG3 make his reads by exposing coverage), and the rarity of anything else fancy.
Defensively, Ray has done the same. MARK MY WORDS he won't have to "scheme" a passrush (by sending fifth and sixth passrushers etc.)
The experimental phase is over, and the cream has risen to the top.
I was wrong about Paul Kruger in game three. He was playing. It turns out, preseason game three was his final audition. Remember, that's when Ogbah replaced him.
Well, think back: Ogbah took to outside linebacker like a duck to water. They were especially impressed with his pass drops (which put him ahead of Kruger in that area immediately).
Ray runs 4 man fronts too, so when Des Bryant went down, they wanted to see Ogbah at 4-3 DE (which he played in college). Bryant's loss changed things, but no, Ogbah was never supposed to replace Des Bryant in the 3-4.
Well, they already knew that Ogbah could play outside linebacker, and that the outside linebackers in this defense sometimes become defensive ends ANYWAY, so...
Ogbah lost a couple preseason games worth of outside linebacker experience, but as you will see, he'll be the starter on opening day.
Well...I think so...
I'm not sure what Ray will do here. If this was any other 3-4, Ogbah starts weak or strong, period. But Shobert is a REAL total-package linebacker, and I can't put it past Ray to start him on the weak side.
That's because Nate Orchard is actually a viable strongside 4-3 linebacker, Ogbah a weakside 4-3 de, Hassan a terrific de period, and this defense is now four deep in 4-3 dt's as well.
Only one thing is certain: Every linebacker, defensive end, and safety can and will rush the passer. Every inside rusher can and will collapse the pocket. Stunts, fire zones, and the aforementioned players will pressure opposing quarterbacks, hopefully enough to make this secondary look at least average.
Washington immediately overpaid him and put him in their 3-4, where he "disappointed".
His predraft scouting reports describe an immovable bull-rushing run-stuffing pocket collapser with a surprisingly explosive first step.
I'm not sure of Washington's scheme, but it probably isn't like Horton's. Paea's greatest success was as a defensive tackle in Chicago's 4-3, and here at right defensive end, nose tackle, and in the 4-3 he will do the same things.
Paea is very much like Jamie Meder, with freakish brute strength and great leverage. He's quicker out of the blocks and shorter, but doesn't have as much range.
One report expected him to rotate in on run downs, but he's a dusruptive force against the pass as well. Setting up between center and guard or guard and tackle, he gets penetration before a blocker can reach him. He can't be knocked off balance or rerouted with a punch.
And inside blocker can sometimes ride him outside, but gives ground and steps on the quarterback's toes. Because he's short with short arms, Paea can't disengage consistently, and he's quick, but not fast.
That is, he's explosive from a standing start, but can be outrun; he mainly penetrates in a straight line, messing things up, but if he doesn't nail somebody quickly that's usually it. He does force people into the arms of his team mates, though.
As a two-gapper, he's just about impossible to budge, as well.
Horton's inside down rushers are not required to get sacks, although he'll take what he can get. They are required to collapse pockets and make messes, and Paea can do that. He is 28 years old, and will upgrade two positions.
I insist that we have yet to see what X Cooper can do at RDE, but Shelton is making me nervous.
This signing wasn't "urgent", however, and the notion that the 6'1" Paea is here to replace Des Bryant is laughable. While Danny Shelton is making us all nervous (I keep thinking of that ankle flexibility thing), X Cooper is only a second year player you have circling the bowl already, Meder is here, and Hughes and Hassan--this is getting rediculous.
Fans seem to be ignoring the linebackers and blaming the lack of pressure on quarterbacks excusively on the defensive line. Last season, you blamed weakness against the run all on the defensive line too. I guess everything bad that happens is all the defensive line's fault.
Well, Virginia, out of the 3-4, the fourth passrusher is not a defensive lineman, and the defensive linemen are outnumbered. Nor do they all always attack, except on obvious passing downs.
The opposing offenses have been picking up and neutralizing the fourth passrusher (except for Cam Johnson, and more recently Shobert and Ogbah).
Well, Ogbah and Shobert haven't been used that way until now, get it?
Hughes, Meder, and (so far) Shelton aren't even here to rush the passer. While the defensive line does one-gap and penetrate, their object is to move the line of scrimmage back, forcing runs outside, or else driving offensive linemen into the pocket.
Ray dreams of guys like Hassan, who can actually turn that into sacks, but they're exceedingly rare (btw GOOD JOB SASHI BROWN).
Most of preseason has been vanilla on both sides so far. It's easy to see with the Browns, as there hasn't been much presnap motion (to help RG3 make his reads by exposing coverage), and the rarity of anything else fancy.
Defensively, Ray has done the same. MARK MY WORDS he won't have to "scheme" a passrush (by sending fifth and sixth passrushers etc.)
The experimental phase is over, and the cream has risen to the top.
I was wrong about Paul Kruger in game three. He was playing. It turns out, preseason game three was his final audition. Remember, that's when Ogbah replaced him.
Well, think back: Ogbah took to outside linebacker like a duck to water. They were especially impressed with his pass drops (which put him ahead of Kruger in that area immediately).
Ray runs 4 man fronts too, so when Des Bryant went down, they wanted to see Ogbah at 4-3 DE (which he played in college). Bryant's loss changed things, but no, Ogbah was never supposed to replace Des Bryant in the 3-4.
Well, they already knew that Ogbah could play outside linebacker, and that the outside linebackers in this defense sometimes become defensive ends ANYWAY, so...
Ogbah lost a couple preseason games worth of outside linebacker experience, but as you will see, he'll be the starter on opening day.
Well...I think so...
I'm not sure what Ray will do here. If this was any other 3-4, Ogbah starts weak or strong, period. But Shobert is a REAL total-package linebacker, and I can't put it past Ray to start him on the weak side.
That's because Nate Orchard is actually a viable strongside 4-3 linebacker, Ogbah a weakside 4-3 de, Hassan a terrific de period, and this defense is now four deep in 4-3 dt's as well.
Only one thing is certain: Every linebacker, defensive end, and safety can and will rush the passer. Every inside rusher can and will collapse the pocket. Stunts, fire zones, and the aforementioned players will pressure opposing quarterbacks, hopefully enough to make this secondary look at least average.
Browns Might as Well not Show Up?
The Browns first teams vs the Bears backups did poorly, and the Browns backups vs the Bears future truck drivers did worse. It could be worse. Colon Kaepernick isn't a Cleveland Brown.
Chief Black Cloud really wants me to know that the Browns stink. Right now he's semi-correct. Right now.
Corey Coleman was lost. Several times, he wasn't sure where to line up. This was probably in his head too, as he dropped passes.
This isn't a huge issue. He did come from Baylor, and never learned the whole route tree in college. He is a rookie. He was also playing at X, outside.
One article I read said he is the starting X receiver. That was true Pryor to this game. Hue Jackson's Pryority is to put his players in the best positions, and as of game one, that might mean the slot for Corey. The X receiver needs to be a guy with some Pryor experience with all the routes. I wonder who the X might be...
The slot is less complicated, and for that matter Coleman is ideal for it.
Also, there is the Baylor offense itself. If the Iggles rely on 2015 Bengals and 2016 Browns film only to formulate their defensive game plan, they're in trouble. Hue ran the Baylor just a little in preseason, but will probably use it more when the rubber meets the road.
This will restore Coleman to his simpler offense, give RG3 simple reads, help the inexperienced Pryor to just play, and spread the defense out for the running backs and Gary Barnidge.
As for the rest of it, Coleman is a rookie. Many Browns fans seem unable to comprehend this concept: Young players tend to improve over time. Honest! You can look it up!
Griffin was again inconsistent with short passes, but did execute some nice, timely touch throws. He is improving, albeit slowly. He has to get a lot better in that area.
The offensive line isn't quite a seive, but is close. Right tackle will be attacked relentlessly by opposing defenses until that position gets better.
It looks like I was wrong once again, as Randall Telfer looks like the number two tight end. He's the best in-line blocker.
Hue has so many big wide receivers now, he doesn't really need a move tight end or H-back. He needs blocking from that spot, and to use a fullback, more to compensate for that right tackle (and I hate to tell you, if somebody offers a first and a third for Joe Thomas, well...)
I know from the very insightful film study I linked to in my last entry that Gary Barnidge is mostly just lazy about his in-line blocking, and can't believe the new coaches will tolerate it. Hell, when the guy first came here, it was FOR his blocking ability!
The Film Study guy pointed him out, lined up on the left side. The run was to the right side. Barnidge was supposed to take two hard steps forward, then wall off the linebacker to his left (to cut off backside pursuit).
He didn't do this, and that linebacker crossed his face and made the tackle. Sure, that was just one play, but the Film Study guy looks at all these films, and says he does this a lot. I just don't get that. The coaches must be on his case over it.
The pressure from the right side isn't all on the right tackle, either. The guy caught Greco vacating his own spot to help Pasztor on the outside when Pasztor had his guy bagged. This is a sign that he's more worried about helping his buddy out than sticking with the program.
Drango and Coleman are still here. No really, they are! They're just rookies, is all. If Pasztor doesn't get better, one of them will be ready to start at some point. Pasztor was never intended to be the long-term solution...you get that, right?
Erving is (predictably) making mistakes. Why were you expecting instant Alex Mack? Alex Mack wasn't Alex Mack as a rookie stop it just stop it.
Hassan is an instastud. It's like he's been in the pros for years. Ogbah is just getting started. Cam Johnson is a surprising passrusher, and may have elbowed Nate Orchard aside on his way to opposing quarterbacks.
The only issue for which there isn't a built-in solution is the secondary.
There are good cornerbacks here, but they're microbes. Even Joe Haden is on the small side. Gilbert doesn't suck as much as he used to, but still screws up (film study dude nailed him too btw). Desir is a player, but not a great athlete.
There is real talent among the safeties, but this secondary probably has a slightly above average cieling, and right now is in the basement.
The pass rush, however, will improve, a lot, and help them out. Black Cloud is rolling his eyes. Cam who? Cam Johnson, the guy who spends most of his time in the backfield every time he's on the field. Yeah that guy. The one who will stand up behind Hassan.
Ogbah hasn't done anything? They've experimented with him at defensive end. He was a defensive end in college. He's still learning linebacker. He's as big as Kruger, stronger than some defensive tackles, and faster than Mingo.
Guy named Joe? That's what they thought. But Shobert is too good not to play.
Film Study Dude suggested that if Ray Horton can't "scheme" a pass rush, the Browns are in trouble. He is wrong. Three of the guys I just named are rookies.
Johnson was a seventh round pick. One reason he slid was he moved from outside linebacker to defensive end as a senior. He was considered a "nine technique" or edge-rusher.
He is back at outside linebacker now and ya know what? So far, so great.
Hell, I never even mentioned Nate Orchard! Orchard's sackfest late last season, in context, was encouraging but not terrific. They tried to block him with little guys and he ran them over.
However, Orchard turned out to be a pretty good linebacker who can set the edge and stop the run, so he's not going anywhere. But the other guys (and Hassan) may be better quarterback-killers.
Ray Horton had not yet settled on his packages as of the last preseason game. He'd been experimenting with different people.
Johnson and Shobert worked their ways up from the basement, and Ogbah was sidetracked...ok this will be my next entry after I do some more homework.
Anyway Hue's got the great Iggles right where he wants em.
Chief Black Cloud really wants me to know that the Browns stink. Right now he's semi-correct. Right now.
Corey Coleman was lost. Several times, he wasn't sure where to line up. This was probably in his head too, as he dropped passes.
This isn't a huge issue. He did come from Baylor, and never learned the whole route tree in college. He is a rookie. He was also playing at X, outside.
One article I read said he is the starting X receiver. That was true Pryor to this game. Hue Jackson's Pryority is to put his players in the best positions, and as of game one, that might mean the slot for Corey. The X receiver needs to be a guy with some Pryor experience with all the routes. I wonder who the X might be...
The slot is less complicated, and for that matter Coleman is ideal for it.
Also, there is the Baylor offense itself. If the Iggles rely on 2015 Bengals and 2016 Browns film only to formulate their defensive game plan, they're in trouble. Hue ran the Baylor just a little in preseason, but will probably use it more when the rubber meets the road.
This will restore Coleman to his simpler offense, give RG3 simple reads, help the inexperienced Pryor to just play, and spread the defense out for the running backs and Gary Barnidge.
As for the rest of it, Coleman is a rookie. Many Browns fans seem unable to comprehend this concept: Young players tend to improve over time. Honest! You can look it up!
Griffin was again inconsistent with short passes, but did execute some nice, timely touch throws. He is improving, albeit slowly. He has to get a lot better in that area.
The offensive line isn't quite a seive, but is close. Right tackle will be attacked relentlessly by opposing defenses until that position gets better.
It looks like I was wrong once again, as Randall Telfer looks like the number two tight end. He's the best in-line blocker.
Hue has so many big wide receivers now, he doesn't really need a move tight end or H-back. He needs blocking from that spot, and to use a fullback, more to compensate for that right tackle (and I hate to tell you, if somebody offers a first and a third for Joe Thomas, well...)
I know from the very insightful film study I linked to in my last entry that Gary Barnidge is mostly just lazy about his in-line blocking, and can't believe the new coaches will tolerate it. Hell, when the guy first came here, it was FOR his blocking ability!
The Film Study guy pointed him out, lined up on the left side. The run was to the right side. Barnidge was supposed to take two hard steps forward, then wall off the linebacker to his left (to cut off backside pursuit).
He didn't do this, and that linebacker crossed his face and made the tackle. Sure, that was just one play, but the Film Study guy looks at all these films, and says he does this a lot. I just don't get that. The coaches must be on his case over it.
The pressure from the right side isn't all on the right tackle, either. The guy caught Greco vacating his own spot to help Pasztor on the outside when Pasztor had his guy bagged. This is a sign that he's more worried about helping his buddy out than sticking with the program.
Drango and Coleman are still here. No really, they are! They're just rookies, is all. If Pasztor doesn't get better, one of them will be ready to start at some point. Pasztor was never intended to be the long-term solution...you get that, right?
Erving is (predictably) making mistakes. Why were you expecting instant Alex Mack? Alex Mack wasn't Alex Mack as a rookie stop it just stop it.
Hassan is an instastud. It's like he's been in the pros for years. Ogbah is just getting started. Cam Johnson is a surprising passrusher, and may have elbowed Nate Orchard aside on his way to opposing quarterbacks.
The only issue for which there isn't a built-in solution is the secondary.
There are good cornerbacks here, but they're microbes. Even Joe Haden is on the small side. Gilbert doesn't suck as much as he used to, but still screws up (film study dude nailed him too btw). Desir is a player, but not a great athlete.
There is real talent among the safeties, but this secondary probably has a slightly above average cieling, and right now is in the basement.
The pass rush, however, will improve, a lot, and help them out. Black Cloud is rolling his eyes. Cam who? Cam Johnson, the guy who spends most of his time in the backfield every time he's on the field. Yeah that guy. The one who will stand up behind Hassan.
Ogbah hasn't done anything? They've experimented with him at defensive end. He was a defensive end in college. He's still learning linebacker. He's as big as Kruger, stronger than some defensive tackles, and faster than Mingo.
Guy named Joe? That's what they thought. But Shobert is too good not to play.
Film Study Dude suggested that if Ray Horton can't "scheme" a pass rush, the Browns are in trouble. He is wrong. Three of the guys I just named are rookies.
Johnson was a seventh round pick. One reason he slid was he moved from outside linebacker to defensive end as a senior. He was considered a "nine technique" or edge-rusher.
He is back at outside linebacker now and ya know what? So far, so great.
Hell, I never even mentioned Nate Orchard! Orchard's sackfest late last season, in context, was encouraging but not terrific. They tried to block him with little guys and he ran them over.
However, Orchard turned out to be a pretty good linebacker who can set the edge and stop the run, so he's not going anywhere. But the other guys (and Hassan) may be better quarterback-killers.
Ray Horton had not yet settled on his packages as of the last preseason game. He'd been experimenting with different people.
Johnson and Shobert worked their ways up from the basement, and Ogbah was sidetracked...ok this will be my next entry after I do some more homework.
Anyway Hue's got the great Iggles right where he wants em.
Thursday, September 1, 2016
Playing Starters a Good Move
Heading into the third preseason game, Hue Jackson continues to prove he is a genius by doing stuff I would do.
This young team remains unsettled and is still crawling (you know then it walks etc?) Almost everybody is new. Which starters were here last season?
Thomas Bitonio Greco Barnidge Duke Crowell. Defense is even newer with Shelton Kirksey Haden Campbell. Ok I missed a couple but you get the idea.
Defensively, Doctor Hortonstein has been trying to figure out what parts go where, and has sought to get literally everybody first team reps--several at more than one position.
The offense has not been the offense we will see. Hue has called more passes than he will, and kept RG3 in the pocket more than he will. He's doing what his players are worst at.
Playing the starters (except maybe Big Joe) is more mandatory than just a good idea.
As you can see here, young players are still screwing up. So are some of the veterans, for that matter. Erving is much better than he was last season, but still makes mistakes. Ogbah took time off from learning OLB to focus on DE, and is now the weakside OLB.
RG3 has always been a great mad bomber, but thus far has been mediocre on the short quick-hitters.
It's tough to work on that with these players. The wide receivers are deep threats, and if they get the right look they're supposed to go deep, and RG3 is supposed to look deep first.
Hue can't really tell his quarterback to ignore his best read and go short instead. That's just not a good idea. Maybe he can tell Pryor, Gordon, and Coleman to just fall down, or play the smurfs and new guys instead.
I hope nobody gets hurt, but these guys got some catching up to do. Good for Hue. Stay outside that box.
This young team remains unsettled and is still crawling (you know then it walks etc?) Almost everybody is new. Which starters were here last season?
Thomas Bitonio Greco Barnidge Duke Crowell. Defense is even newer with Shelton Kirksey Haden Campbell. Ok I missed a couple but you get the idea.
Defensively, Doctor Hortonstein has been trying to figure out what parts go where, and has sought to get literally everybody first team reps--several at more than one position.
The offense has not been the offense we will see. Hue has called more passes than he will, and kept RG3 in the pocket more than he will. He's doing what his players are worst at.
Playing the starters (except maybe Big Joe) is more mandatory than just a good idea.
As you can see here, young players are still screwing up. So are some of the veterans, for that matter. Erving is much better than he was last season, but still makes mistakes. Ogbah took time off from learning OLB to focus on DE, and is now the weakside OLB.
RG3 has always been a great mad bomber, but thus far has been mediocre on the short quick-hitters.
It's tough to work on that with these players. The wide receivers are deep threats, and if they get the right look they're supposed to go deep, and RG3 is supposed to look deep first.
Hue can't really tell his quarterback to ignore his best read and go short instead. That's just not a good idea. Maybe he can tell Pryor, Gordon, and Coleman to just fall down, or play the smurfs and new guys instead.
I hope nobody gets hurt, but these guys got some catching up to do. Good for Hue. Stay outside that box.
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Browns Power Ranking: Fair Enough.
Chris Simms ranked the Browns thirtieth based on an overall dearth of talent. At first, I thought Chris was another guy who doesn't bother doing his homework, until I heard him talking about his Browns Power Ranking with Matt Miller.
The critical element for any team is the quarterback, and a lot of questions persist about RG3. Other questions need to be anwered as well. Nobody in the secondary except Joe Haden is really proven. Ogbah, Hassan, and Orchard are unproven. Right tackle is unsettled.
While I am irked by Chris's misuse of the word "talent", I can understand where he's coming from.
When his partner Matt Miller talked about how horribly the Browns had botched the offseason by signing RG3 instead of drafting Wentz or Goff, how Corey Coleman was impressive but would have nobody else to take the heat off him, and said some more ignorant stuff not worth repeating, Chris got quiet and looked a little sad.
Their under-over for the Browns was 4.5 wins, and Miller naturally went under. Chris went over, projecting six wins.
He explained: Gordon, Pryor, and Coleman could be really scary. Hue Jackson is an excellent coach. He mentioned Hassan and Ogbah as well.
It was well said. I think Matt Miller was oblivious to the fact that Chris had just showed everybody how stupid he was. What Miller said about Coleman having nobody to take the pressure off him exposed his laziness. Obviously, not only Pryor and Gordon will, but also Barnidge and Duke.
Obviously, Hue Jackson will run the ball, and actually does have the people to do it.
While Matt Miller clearly regards himself as smarter than Hue Jackson and the front office, Chris does not. You can't win six games without talent.
Power rankings in general are mostly about quarterbacks. That is the most important position, and for some (like Matt Miller I guess) the ONLY position.
You can't blame Chris or others for ranking the Browns so low with so many unanswered questions, especially at quarterback.
Even as Chris Simms rated them 30th, he projected six wins. Most likely, he expects all the young players to improve, and the players to get used to the new systems, as the season unwinds. He'll raise his ranking after they get their young feet on the ground.
I have a lot of respect for Phil and Chris Simms, and will add Matt Miller to my bad example list. Who's going to help Corey Coleman out? My God.
The critical element for any team is the quarterback, and a lot of questions persist about RG3. Other questions need to be anwered as well. Nobody in the secondary except Joe Haden is really proven. Ogbah, Hassan, and Orchard are unproven. Right tackle is unsettled.
While I am irked by Chris's misuse of the word "talent", I can understand where he's coming from.
When his partner Matt Miller talked about how horribly the Browns had botched the offseason by signing RG3 instead of drafting Wentz or Goff, how Corey Coleman was impressive but would have nobody else to take the heat off him, and said some more ignorant stuff not worth repeating, Chris got quiet and looked a little sad.
Their under-over for the Browns was 4.5 wins, and Miller naturally went under. Chris went over, projecting six wins.
He explained: Gordon, Pryor, and Coleman could be really scary. Hue Jackson is an excellent coach. He mentioned Hassan and Ogbah as well.
It was well said. I think Matt Miller was oblivious to the fact that Chris had just showed everybody how stupid he was. What Miller said about Coleman having nobody to take the pressure off him exposed his laziness. Obviously, not only Pryor and Gordon will, but also Barnidge and Duke.
Obviously, Hue Jackson will run the ball, and actually does have the people to do it.
While Matt Miller clearly regards himself as smarter than Hue Jackson and the front office, Chris does not. You can't win six games without talent.
Power rankings in general are mostly about quarterbacks. That is the most important position, and for some (like Matt Miller I guess) the ONLY position.
You can't blame Chris or others for ranking the Browns so low with so many unanswered questions, especially at quarterback.
Even as Chris Simms rated them 30th, he projected six wins. Most likely, he expects all the young players to improve, and the players to get used to the new systems, as the season unwinds. He'll raise his ranking after they get their young feet on the ground.
I have a lot of respect for Phil and Chris Simms, and will add Matt Miller to my bad example list. Who's going to help Corey Coleman out? My God.
Monday, August 29, 2016
Cleveland Browns: Talent Trumps Experience.
Today was a day of surprises for me, as both Paul Kruger and Andy Lee said good bye. I've had time to just skim over some really good articles on this by people who actually seem to comprehend what is called "analytics".
The aforelinked article and this one address that topic so well that I can zero in on the football part.
First, however, Bill Livingston is delusional. He thinks the Browns traded Andy Lee because he wouldn't make a tackle in a preseason game. This is insulting Hue Jackson. He was ticked off at Andy (I'm not sure why), but smart coaches don't dump good players based on chickenshit.
As the second article says, they got a great deal for Andy, and the team is still under construction.
The Kruger thing only surprised me a little. As I've mentioned, the Browns are eyeball deep in 3-4 outside linebackers and 4-3 defensive ends. Orchard, Ogbah, Nassib, and even Cam Johnson are the future here.
Nassib has indeed been tested inside, and I was wrong: He looks good there. But he still looks better outside. Schobert is listed as an OLB, but he's more a 4-3 than 3-4 type who can play anywhere.
I still think Kruger can play, and that he was wasted in coverage last season by the "they'll never see this coming!" Pettine coaching staff. But he did have a hefty salary, is NOT good in coverage, and had become expendable.
Here's another potential surprise for you: Contrary to popular mythos, having an old wide receiver is not mandatory, and Hawkins is on the bubble.
He has had injuries and concussions. Taylor Gabriel and Jennings are looking really good in the slot, and even Marlon Moore has mutated into a real wide receiver.
Most guys mocking up 53 man depth charts wrote Hawkins in in ink, simply because he's experienced. Anybody ever hear of this guy named Al Saunders? Come on, people: They run around and catch footballs cut it out!
I LIKE Hawk, by the way. But this is business.
Sashi and Paul have more surprises in store for you. Stand by.
This just in: The latest Depth chart after the cuts is out.
It shows Ogbah and Orchard as the first team OLBs. They have Hughes (then Nassib) at one of the DE spots, and X Cooper and Armonty Bryant at the other.
That probably means that Cooper and Bryant are over the right tackle in the base, with Hughes and Nassib inside. I'm batting around .150 with this stuff. But I will pick up the pieces of my shattered ego and move on somehow.
Self-correction: Nassib and Hughes are at LDE, with Cooper and Bryant at RDE (really under-tackle). Whew thought I was going insane there. Ok this makes more sense: Cooper and Hughes are for running downs and Bryant and Nassib are passrushers. The run guys are nominal starters.
Cooper is actually a penetrator himself, so it's being set up like I expected, and my batting average is just fine: the right defensive end will attack and the linebackers and safeties will back him up. They're trying to stop opposing running backs in their own backfield, and force them to the other side of the field.
Hughes will engage the right tackle, but Nassib will probably also attack. There's no way Ray Horton uses these four players the same way.
On Nassib, this guy looks really, really special. He could be huge. He already looks like a veteran.
Notably, Shobert is (for now) the number two weak outside linebacker, and the unheralded Cam Johnson backs up Orchard on the strong side. Everybody except Shobert can put their hands in the dirt and are passrushers first.
Shobert is the only true linebacker, and putting him on the weak side makes sense. The guy can get after the quarterback, but can't engage offensive linemen to do it.
This is a ball of confusion, of course, as Shobert is probably the 4-3 weakside backer to...I dunno I get a headache figuring out all the insideously diabolical stuff Ray Horton is plotting.
If you think this defense will suck, check this out: Based on this depth chart, five of the eleven starters have one or fewer years in the NFL. Three of the second team players are the same, and most of them should get significant playing time.
With a new system being installed on top of this, bad performances are pretty much guaranteed until they learn the ropes. What did you expect?
Another great thing here is the Tank Carder story. He is now a second team inside linebacker, ahead of the draft picks. He is getting what he has earned.
All the other players see this stuff. There is no favoritism here. If you show these coaches that you are one of the best, you will be rewarded for it. This is a hopeful, positive environment.
I really wish my boss was like that.
The aforelinked article and this one address that topic so well that I can zero in on the football part.
First, however, Bill Livingston is delusional. He thinks the Browns traded Andy Lee because he wouldn't make a tackle in a preseason game. This is insulting Hue Jackson. He was ticked off at Andy (I'm not sure why), but smart coaches don't dump good players based on chickenshit.
As the second article says, they got a great deal for Andy, and the team is still under construction.
The Kruger thing only surprised me a little. As I've mentioned, the Browns are eyeball deep in 3-4 outside linebackers and 4-3 defensive ends. Orchard, Ogbah, Nassib, and even Cam Johnson are the future here.
Nassib has indeed been tested inside, and I was wrong: He looks good there. But he still looks better outside. Schobert is listed as an OLB, but he's more a 4-3 than 3-4 type who can play anywhere.
I still think Kruger can play, and that he was wasted in coverage last season by the "they'll never see this coming!" Pettine coaching staff. But he did have a hefty salary, is NOT good in coverage, and had become expendable.
Here's another potential surprise for you: Contrary to popular mythos, having an old wide receiver is not mandatory, and Hawkins is on the bubble.
He has had injuries and concussions. Taylor Gabriel and Jennings are looking really good in the slot, and even Marlon Moore has mutated into a real wide receiver.
Most guys mocking up 53 man depth charts wrote Hawkins in in ink, simply because he's experienced. Anybody ever hear of this guy named Al Saunders? Come on, people: They run around and catch footballs cut it out!
I LIKE Hawk, by the way. But this is business.
Sashi and Paul have more surprises in store for you. Stand by.
This just in: The latest Depth chart after the cuts is out.
It shows Ogbah and Orchard as the first team OLBs. They have Hughes (then Nassib) at one of the DE spots, and X Cooper and Armonty Bryant at the other.
That probably means that Cooper and Bryant are over the right tackle in the base, with Hughes and Nassib inside. I'm batting around .150 with this stuff. But I will pick up the pieces of my shattered ego and move on somehow.
Self-correction: Nassib and Hughes are at LDE, with Cooper and Bryant at RDE (really under-tackle). Whew thought I was going insane there. Ok this makes more sense: Cooper and Hughes are for running downs and Bryant and Nassib are passrushers. The run guys are nominal starters.
Cooper is actually a penetrator himself, so it's being set up like I expected, and my batting average is just fine: the right defensive end will attack and the linebackers and safeties will back him up. They're trying to stop opposing running backs in their own backfield, and force them to the other side of the field.
Hughes will engage the right tackle, but Nassib will probably also attack. There's no way Ray Horton uses these four players the same way.
On Nassib, this guy looks really, really special. He could be huge. He already looks like a veteran.
Notably, Shobert is (for now) the number two weak outside linebacker, and the unheralded Cam Johnson backs up Orchard on the strong side. Everybody except Shobert can put their hands in the dirt and are passrushers first.
Shobert is the only true linebacker, and putting him on the weak side makes sense. The guy can get after the quarterback, but can't engage offensive linemen to do it.
This is a ball of confusion, of course, as Shobert is probably the 4-3 weakside backer to...I dunno I get a headache figuring out all the insideously diabolical stuff Ray Horton is plotting.
If you think this defense will suck, check this out: Based on this depth chart, five of the eleven starters have one or fewer years in the NFL. Three of the second team players are the same, and most of them should get significant playing time.
With a new system being installed on top of this, bad performances are pretty much guaranteed until they learn the ropes. What did you expect?
Another great thing here is the Tank Carder story. He is now a second team inside linebacker, ahead of the draft picks. He is getting what he has earned.
All the other players see this stuff. There is no favoritism here. If you show these coaches that you are one of the best, you will be rewarded for it. This is a hopeful, positive environment.
I really wish my boss was like that.
Sunday, August 28, 2016
Browns Defense and Chicken Little
Can't avoid this topic. I tried. The Browns defense vs the Falcons was an atrocity. An abomination. Horrific.
Fortunately, hundreds of others have covered that, as if it didn't speak for itself. And yes, I have a whole bunch of corrections to make.
One fan asked Mary K Cabbot: Can the Browns defense really be that bad? MKC gave an excellent answer. I have more to add.
No. It won't be that bad. The Bucs have a well-established offensive system with elite veteran skill players. Ray Horton has come back with a new defensive system, which is still in the experimental stage: He's not certain yet what is the ideal combination of personnel and scheme.
The Bucs were fine-tuning what could be a top five offense, while the Browns are still under construction. Note: Yes I said a potential top five offense. Grossi please update your files.
Some pundits continue with the lack of talent mantra. I prefer to t h i n k.
There are real issues at cornerback, aside from Joe Haden. Even Haden was overmatched by the sheer size and height of Jackson and Evans. They really needed Gilbert to emerge. He played better this time, but not well enough.
Peter Smith spells the secondary issues out quite well. He is wrong when he calls moving Desir to safety a dumb move, since Desir lacks ideal cornerback speed, and is better suited to safety. That's also an oversimplification in a Horton defense: The fifth or sixth defensive back is often a coverage safety; really a big zone corner. Desir may be put back at cornerback now. Horton may run more zone than man. This remains unsettled.
But aside from that, Peter as usual did some great analysis.
But the coverage wasn't quite as bad as it looked. First unit pressure on Jameious Winston was non-existent, and the majority of those long completions came after Winston had a picnic lunch, refilled his cooler, and looked for an open receiver.
This was the abominably horrific part. Every Browns passrusher was locked up and stoned on nearly every single down.
They did pretty well against the run, and may have two-gapped on early downs. They didn't blitze a lot. For all that, the Falcons protectors just took their lunch money. Nobody, including Darryl Revis, can cover huge wide receivers for five-plus seconds. Nobody.
I haven't heard much from Paul Kruger, and it may be that he didn't play much. Horton knows who Kruger is, and Kruger knows this system. Hassan and Ogbah are rookies. Orchard enters his second season. Mingo was traded, so aside from Kruger, all the outside passrushers are inexperienced.
But there is plenty of front seven talent on this defense. The majority of them are at or near the low end of their growth curves.
The projected inside linebackers and Paul Kruger are veterans, along with Jamie Meder. The rest of them max out at one year of experience, in a different system.
Ray Horton, as he himself said, deliberately threw everybody in the deep end by hitting them with his whole playbook on day one. In addition to finding out who would drown, this was also in order to test the various players at different positions and in different alignments to get a comprehensive assessment.
The players' first team reps were diluted.
Terry Pluto expects Ray to simplify and stabilize the defense once he knows what he has, and what works best.
The cornerback situation isn't too great, and coverage hasn't been affected nearly as much by Horton's deep water approach as the pass rush.
The defense WILL NOT continue to suck like it did in Tampa. It should "improve" dramaticly vs. the Iggles in game one.
It may still be below average, or even pretty bad early on. All I'm saying is that whoever wrote, after the third preseason game, against the Bucs offense, in a new system, with inexperienced players, that the 2016 Browns defense has a chance to be the worst in NFL history is in dire need of a brain transplant.
Hue Jackson must have read this blog. He said "the sky isn't falling". And it isn't.
Fortunately, hundreds of others have covered that, as if it didn't speak for itself. And yes, I have a whole bunch of corrections to make.
One fan asked Mary K Cabbot: Can the Browns defense really be that bad? MKC gave an excellent answer. I have more to add.
No. It won't be that bad. The Bucs have a well-established offensive system with elite veteran skill players. Ray Horton has come back with a new defensive system, which is still in the experimental stage: He's not certain yet what is the ideal combination of personnel and scheme.
The Bucs were fine-tuning what could be a top five offense, while the Browns are still under construction. Note: Yes I said a potential top five offense. Grossi please update your files.
Some pundits continue with the lack of talent mantra. I prefer to t h i n k.
There are real issues at cornerback, aside from Joe Haden. Even Haden was overmatched by the sheer size and height of Jackson and Evans. They really needed Gilbert to emerge. He played better this time, but not well enough.
Peter Smith spells the secondary issues out quite well. He is wrong when he calls moving Desir to safety a dumb move, since Desir lacks ideal cornerback speed, and is better suited to safety. That's also an oversimplification in a Horton defense: The fifth or sixth defensive back is often a coverage safety; really a big zone corner. Desir may be put back at cornerback now. Horton may run more zone than man. This remains unsettled.
But aside from that, Peter as usual did some great analysis.
But the coverage wasn't quite as bad as it looked. First unit pressure on Jameious Winston was non-existent, and the majority of those long completions came after Winston had a picnic lunch, refilled his cooler, and looked for an open receiver.
This was the abominably horrific part. Every Browns passrusher was locked up and stoned on nearly every single down.
They did pretty well against the run, and may have two-gapped on early downs. They didn't blitze a lot. For all that, the Falcons protectors just took their lunch money. Nobody, including Darryl Revis, can cover huge wide receivers for five-plus seconds. Nobody.
I haven't heard much from Paul Kruger, and it may be that he didn't play much. Horton knows who Kruger is, and Kruger knows this system. Hassan and Ogbah are rookies. Orchard enters his second season. Mingo was traded, so aside from Kruger, all the outside passrushers are inexperienced.
But there is plenty of front seven talent on this defense. The majority of them are at or near the low end of their growth curves.
The projected inside linebackers and Paul Kruger are veterans, along with Jamie Meder. The rest of them max out at one year of experience, in a different system.
Ray Horton, as he himself said, deliberately threw everybody in the deep end by hitting them with his whole playbook on day one. In addition to finding out who would drown, this was also in order to test the various players at different positions and in different alignments to get a comprehensive assessment.
The players' first team reps were diluted.
Terry Pluto expects Ray to simplify and stabilize the defense once he knows what he has, and what works best.
The cornerback situation isn't too great, and coverage hasn't been affected nearly as much by Horton's deep water approach as the pass rush.
The defense WILL NOT continue to suck like it did in Tampa. It should "improve" dramaticly vs. the Iggles in game one.
It may still be below average, or even pretty bad early on. All I'm saying is that whoever wrote, after the third preseason game, against the Bucs offense, in a new system, with inexperienced players, that the 2016 Browns defense has a chance to be the worst in NFL history is in dire need of a brain transplant.
Hue Jackson must have read this blog. He said "the sky isn't falling". And it isn't.
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