I was really impressed by this Fanpost article by "Ezweav" (Dawgs by Nature).
Ez projects the Browns 2016 depth chart. I disagreed with some of this, but the guy backed his play with logic and facts, and I think it would be a lot of fun to argue with him over some brewskies.
I do agree with most of his well thought-out projections.
He hits the ground running by calling Cody Kessler the starting quarterback.
When Skip Bayliss said this, I called him a dumbass, but I can't do that with Ez, because the basis for his opinion was rational, not to mention sentient. He's even half way persuaded me.
I love the fact that Ez comprehends that arm strength is overrated, and that Kessler actually has a decent arm. In his more aggressive 2014 scheme, Kessler threw downfield a lot more, and did so effectively. In 2015, he dinked and dunked, and 2014 never happened.
Like me, Ez had never heard of the guy until Hue (and it WAS Hue) picked him, but after checking some game films, saw a lot to like.
I still lean towards RG3, but like I keep disclaiming, I could be wrong. Nothing this article said about RG3's flaws was inaccurate.
Ez ranks Ivan Drago (McCown) third. Like me, he knows that he really should be the starter, but not on a rebuilding team.
Ez is not afraid of controversy. He projects ex-Bengal monsterback Terrell Davis as the starter over Isaiah Crowell.
Ez feels that Watson fits a smashmouth power scheme better. I like the guy myself, but kinda sorta disagree. In a way. A little.
Ez blames Crow for Bitonio's injury, since it was his back Crow ran into the most. He also doesn't like the fingertip tackles (I agree).
As Ez himself stipulates, the blocking scheme was confused last season, but Crowell did better with zone-blocking. But Ez missed the left-handed scheme that allowed defenses to predict every run through week eleven last season, and the fact that Crow averaged 5.2 ypc after that changed.
He's got Duke Johnson third. It doesn't matter, though: He'll play a ton.
Ez doesn't see him as a feature back. I don't know. I do know that he's a compact 205 and surprisingly hard to take down.
Also, if I'm right about the Baylor influenced spread offense, this favors Crow and Duke over Watson.
I do think that Watson will not be a wall flower at all. He will play a lot.
No surprises on the offensive line.
Ez predicts Coleman and Higgins at wide receiver and Hawk as the primary slot. He likes Payton almost as much as Higgins. I agree 100% with all of this. Except don't count out you know who.
At tight end, Ez stumbled a little. He's got Telfer at number two, Bibbs third, and DeValve fourth.
Telfer is a legit in-line tight end, but I don't see where Ez got the impression that he was a good receiver.
And again, if I'm right about the offensive scheme, both Bibbs and DeValve are better fits.
A note on this: The object of blocking is to keep a defender away from the football. Ok well, if a "tight end" lines up way outside, he is taking a defender away from the football, ok? And he can still get a piece of him, too.
It was truly refreshing to read somebody else saying that the defense's failures vs the run last season weren't the defensive line's fault.
The linebackers were out of position because they couldn't figure out where they were supposed to go. Because the scheme was too complicated.
Ez thinks John Hughes will start opposite Bryant. I think it will be Cooper. Ray Horton's defensive line will shoot gaps, and that's Cooper, not Hughes.
But I like Hughes a lot, so if I'm wrong I guess I will survive somehow.
He blames the coaches for Kruger's bad 2015 and expects him to start.
Duh.
But he's got Mingo starting on the other side! No I'm not disagreeing, just surprised.
Like me, he loves Hassan and Ogbah, but can't expect them to start right away. They'll both play a lot, though.
At inside linebacker, it's DeMario Davis and...Scooby Wright. Well, Ez mentions a bet he made, so I don't think he meant it.
Later on, he says he thinks Schobert will start after he has won his bet. That's about right. I like Kirksey a lot, but Schobert is special, and more advanced than Wright.
I don't know. There's a lot of talent there. I just know that the Browns will be really good at inside linebacker in 16.
Ez knows that Ibraheim Campbell is a stud, and thinks Rahim Moore will be the other starter.
He really sticks his thumb in a lot of eyes by calling Justin Gilbert a starter at cornerback. I love it.
As you know, I think he has a great chance myself. He is physically off the charts, and the rest can be coached. It's up to him, and he's another year older now.
This is not Johnny Manziel here. Justin has been a real punk, but the new coaches are all happy with his attitude and work ethic NOW...why does everybody think they're lying?
I have to give Ez a solid "A" for this. I know he's a genius, because I thought I was reading my own stuff...say, waitaminnit...
Monday, July 11, 2016
Sunday, July 10, 2016
Projections Based on Obsolete Data
If I were a Jets fan, I would probably believe this.
Most of it is really smart, as it displays some real insight on the Jets' roster, and real football knowledge. That's why I include the link: This writer does not suck.
However, he makes the same mistake I have made in the past (I think less often recently): He doesn't do enough research on the OTHER team.
This guy predicts a bunch of sack records for the Jets when they play the Browns.
This guy is right to think that the Jets should have a scary pass rush in general. What bothered me was that he picked out the Cleveland Browns as the team they would go apeshit on.
He stipulated Joe Thomas, but essentially labelled the rest of the Browns line "Joe", because Schwartze and Mack are gone.
In reality, the Browns retain two top ten guards. When PFF ranked Mack in the middle among centers, it's downright dumb to label Cam Erving a downgrade at center entering his second season, and FOUR veteran and rookie players are competing to replace Schwartze in a new blocking scheme.
With a head coach who lately had Andy Dalton running rollouts and read-option to minimize pocket passing, it's not wise to expect your passrushers to have a pocket to attack.
With RG3 the presumptive starter (ergo MORE running around and LESS pocket passing), one has to feel even more confused about why this guy expects sack records against this particular team.
I need to mention here that a strong running game makes it harder for a defense to get sacks. In this article, I didn't read any predictions about Hue Jackson not having a respectable running game for the first time in his career.
This writer reminds me of me a long time ago. He knows his team by heart, but he shoots from the hip otherwise.
I use him to make a broader point:
The Cleveland Browns seem to be everybody else's go-to punching bag, but it's all being based on another set of coaches, and at least twenty players who will no longer be on this roster.
If Chris Palmer were the Browns head coach, poor RG3 would be set up right and proper for that Jets pass rush.
But he isn't, and this Jets writer shouldn't get his hopes up.
Most of it is really smart, as it displays some real insight on the Jets' roster, and real football knowledge. That's why I include the link: This writer does not suck.
However, he makes the same mistake I have made in the past (I think less often recently): He doesn't do enough research on the OTHER team.
This guy predicts a bunch of sack records for the Jets when they play the Browns.
This guy is right to think that the Jets should have a scary pass rush in general. What bothered me was that he picked out the Cleveland Browns as the team they would go apeshit on.
He stipulated Joe Thomas, but essentially labelled the rest of the Browns line "Joe", because Schwartze and Mack are gone.
In reality, the Browns retain two top ten guards. When PFF ranked Mack in the middle among centers, it's downright dumb to label Cam Erving a downgrade at center entering his second season, and FOUR veteran and rookie players are competing to replace Schwartze in a new blocking scheme.
With a head coach who lately had Andy Dalton running rollouts and read-option to minimize pocket passing, it's not wise to expect your passrushers to have a pocket to attack.
With RG3 the presumptive starter (ergo MORE running around and LESS pocket passing), one has to feel even more confused about why this guy expects sack records against this particular team.
I need to mention here that a strong running game makes it harder for a defense to get sacks. In this article, I didn't read any predictions about Hue Jackson not having a respectable running game for the first time in his career.
This writer reminds me of me a long time ago. He knows his team by heart, but he shoots from the hip otherwise.
I use him to make a broader point:
The Cleveland Browns seem to be everybody else's go-to punching bag, but it's all being based on another set of coaches, and at least twenty players who will no longer be on this roster.
If Chris Palmer were the Browns head coach, poor RG3 would be set up right and proper for that Jets pass rush.
But he isn't, and this Jets writer shouldn't get his hopes up.
Tuesday, July 5, 2016
RG3's Chances Hue Jackson's Cleveland Browns
Dave Davenport of the Bleacher Report thinks that RG3 is being set up to fail.
This wasn't a bad article, but it was shallow.
Dave quotes somebody else to assert that the starting wide receivers for this season look like Marlon Moore and Coleman. He then compares these two to Green and Brown.
Marlon Moore is not going to start. You can leave Terrell Pryor in the cornfield if you want---let's just use Higgins for giggles.
He acknowledges Gary Barnidge.
He knocks the offensive line and running game based on last season's performance, PFF rankings, and the losses of Mack and Scwartze.
All of that is valid on the surface. But in 2014 the exact same crew ranked near the top until Alex Mack broke his leg.
Scheme, coaching, and situation has much to do with this:
That offensive line performed better with the inside zone than in man. Better under Shanahan than under lefty DeFelipo.
While Schwartze came into his own as an elite right tackle, Alex Mack was in reality pedestrian.
RG3 will NOT be a classic pocket passer, and the blocking scheme will not be conventional. You could say he's being set up to fail if he's ordered to imitate Tom Brady, but he's not.
I've addressed the running game ad nauseam. The five most recent games most accurately reflect what is here now, and that's not bad.
Dave thankfully doesn't include the defense, which last season wore out, played out of position, was confused by an overly complicated scheme, and put Browns quarterbacks (and pass protectors) constantly behind the eight ball.
Much as I like Josh McCown, a quarterback who holds the ball too long isn't doing his bodyguards any favors with PFF either.
I believe that RG3 has a decent chance to succeed here. The offense's commitment to the run (and play action) is genuine, and Hue will run an offense tailored to his unique skills.
He will have several nice targets, including reliable ones like Higgins and Barnidge, and bailout guys like Duke Johnson.
Listen: It's hard for a defense to tee off on a pocket when they're not sure there is going to be one, or if there is, where it will be.
It's harder to get heat on a quarterback when they have to contain him.
It's easier for an offensive line to pass protect when he will be moving. The defenders have to change their trajectories in a predictable way, and again can't tee off.
RG3 could fail. But if he does, it will be his own fault.
This wasn't a bad article, but it was shallow.
Dave quotes somebody else to assert that the starting wide receivers for this season look like Marlon Moore and Coleman. He then compares these two to Green and Brown.
Marlon Moore is not going to start. You can leave Terrell Pryor in the cornfield if you want---let's just use Higgins for giggles.
He acknowledges Gary Barnidge.
He knocks the offensive line and running game based on last season's performance, PFF rankings, and the losses of Mack and Scwartze.
All of that is valid on the surface. But in 2014 the exact same crew ranked near the top until Alex Mack broke his leg.
Scheme, coaching, and situation has much to do with this:
That offensive line performed better with the inside zone than in man. Better under Shanahan than under lefty DeFelipo.
While Schwartze came into his own as an elite right tackle, Alex Mack was in reality pedestrian.
RG3 will NOT be a classic pocket passer, and the blocking scheme will not be conventional. You could say he's being set up to fail if he's ordered to imitate Tom Brady, but he's not.
I've addressed the running game ad nauseam. The five most recent games most accurately reflect what is here now, and that's not bad.
Dave thankfully doesn't include the defense, which last season wore out, played out of position, was confused by an overly complicated scheme, and put Browns quarterbacks (and pass protectors) constantly behind the eight ball.
Much as I like Josh McCown, a quarterback who holds the ball too long isn't doing his bodyguards any favors with PFF either.
I believe that RG3 has a decent chance to succeed here. The offense's commitment to the run (and play action) is genuine, and Hue will run an offense tailored to his unique skills.
He will have several nice targets, including reliable ones like Higgins and Barnidge, and bailout guys like Duke Johnson.
Listen: It's hard for a defense to tee off on a pocket when they're not sure there is going to be one, or if there is, where it will be.
It's harder to get heat on a quarterback when they have to contain him.
It's easier for an offensive line to pass protect when he will be moving. The defenders have to change their trajectories in a predictable way, and again can't tee off.
RG3 could fail. But if he does, it will be his own fault.
Monday, July 4, 2016
Can't Think of a Title: Cleveland Browns something...
I just read a couple of lines in a snarky, sarcastic Browns article by somebody who doesn't do any homework or else is just plain dumb.
The Browns want RG3 to start because he is one of the most gifted athletes in the NFL, and the only quarterback on the roster with the ability to put the team on his shoulders when necessary.
Is that too complicated or something?
Now, you can predict that Hue Jackson won't be able to rehabilitate the guy, and say he's done. That's fair, and you might be right. But the reason they want him to succeed is obvious.
The writer described the rest of the quarterbacks as mediocre, and that was truly ignorant. Sorry to repeat myself, but here we go:
1: Number one wide receiver: Travis Benjamin.
Number two wide receiver: Injured.
Number three wide receiver: You tell me.
2: No running game for most of the season.
3: Broken ribs, separated shoulder, concussion (3a: No time).
4: Constantly playing from behind.
5: McCown had a 92-plus qbr DESPITE all this. That's not mediocre. McCown did the same thing with the Bearss too. (He had a better team then.)
This goober blabbers about McCown might be better or something (I couldn't read it, really I'm allergic to stupid), but that only brings up reason number six why they want RG3 to start:
He is 26. Starting McCown will not get the 2016 Browns to the playoffs. NOTHING will do that. RG3 is still young, and can still improve with experience (notably in the pocket). They know what McCown is. At this point, a go-to backup you hope won't get busted up too soon, a teacher, mentor, and example.
By the way, Josh McCown has been with a lot of teams, but he is OURS now, isn't he? The guts and fire he showed, playing with those injuries...unforgettable. He's a Brown all right, or at least what you want a Brown to be! AND a great person!
Reason number seven is analytical. No Harvard degree required to comprehend this: An average or above performance makes him highly tradeable.
Don't ask why they would trade him ok? They might not but they always want that option.
NON-dumbass Chris Pokorny (Dawgs by Nature) continues his pre-season preview with part 2 of the defensive line.
Chris (and PFF) likes Jamie Meder a lot, and so do I. I don't believe in "overachievers", since none of us really achieve our potentials, but if there were such a thing, it's Meder. He doesn't have a really high ceiling, but he starts out on the third floor.
Chris introduces Nile Lawrence-Stample, who sounds remarkably like John Hughes; a big run-stuffer who CAN get a little penetration and pressure.
Chris thinks he has a shot to be the backup nose tackle, but I say so does John Hughes.
He can't help but point out that X Cooper rated dead last with PFF, but I like Chris a lot because he doesn't go on to suggest he sucks.
Good thing. Chris talks about the importance of stopping the run, but seems to overlook the Ray Horton factor:
This is common: Everybody thinks that a run-stopping defensive line has to two-gap and have guys like Hughes/Meder/Stample, but there are more ways to skin that cat.
The down linemen can one-gap and penetrate, and two inside players (linebackers or one of those and a safety) can plug the leaks (or come with them on run-blitzes for that matter.)
Much depends on the specific opponent and your own personnel, of course. The one-gap has a better chance vs big goons or zone-blocking, but not against g-power with a fast shifty running back, or a running quarterback.
One-gap is also better vs a brainy quick-release quarterback than a mad bomber too, because this scheme offers no pre-snap clues.
Ok-ok you do know that teams don't always run on "obvious run" downs right?
Anyway you don't want Xavier Cooper two-gapping. So stipulated. Mike Pettine had him two-gapping.
He makes the team case closed.
Coaches talked about using Nassib inside:
Well this tells me a lot about their plans:
First, understand that in Horton's scheme the left defensive end needs to have the length and reach to keep the right tackle at bay, and Nassib is "it", period. He HAS to play that position in this defense, because except for the venerable Des Bryant there is nobody else.
So I believe they will have him shaded inside the right tackle, and attacking the strong side b-gap a lot.
How they set the edge and cover to the sidelines is a separate issue, but this makes sense, because you don't want this underweight straight-line rookie trying to stand up right tackles or set the edge anyway.
It gets way deeper because, as I've said, nickels and dimes dominate the NFL today, and it's anybody's guess how Horton will handle that opponent-by-opponent, or where Nassib will fit.
Horton will use everything from one to five down linemen here, and in nickels and dimes Nassib is an unlikely edge player; an outside linebacker will do that.
Based on what Nunn said, they might get really unconventional with Nassib, and actually sometimes put him in the a-gaps.
Seriously, I've never heard this kind of talk before about a player like Nassib:
He does have a major reach advantage over guards and centers, and he is certainly a better athlete, but he's not very strong (yet), he'll find it hard to stay low, his first step is good but not great (like Cooper's), he'll be extra-vulnerable to cut-blocks, and...
Nah! No they might use him as a gap-shooter/pass batter-downer sometimes inside, but I really just think Nunn meant that the left DE will attack the b-gap.
But then, Nunn knows slightly more than I do about this stuff, so if I'm wrong I'm wrong.
But that lde thing is important. It means the left OLB stays outside and sets the edge more.
Having that DE attack the right guard makes it hard on an offense, because it means that right guard had better not pull, can't bother with Shelton or whoever else, and is overmatched by a much faster guy who will jolt him first with a head start.
But everything is a trade-off. Offenses will run away from him, roll the quarterback right, dump off right...they'll have the right tackle jab his pads to unbalance him, then target the edge-player (maybe with a tight end chip or real block), aim a shifty running back between them a lot, etc.
Still, I like it. Nassib or Bryant, with a running start, vs a right guard is a mismatch. Shelton or whoever one-on-one vs a center bodes well too.
Yeah it's risky, but underlying it is that the offense has to do stuff it's not built to do to overcome it, and can't stop penetration. It puts the right tackle out in space vs a superior athlete, pits a guard against a defensive end, gets the defensive end to the pocket, Nassib can tip or bat passes or claw at handoffs, they have to stay deep to get around him...
I picture a right tackle trying to nail Mingo or Ogbah in space. I find that funny to think about. Certain running backs coming behind them make that less funny, but like I said it's a trade-off, and one a defense should win more often than not.
If I'm right, opposing offenses will power run left and attack the right edge on the ground. They will roll out more, and use more short passes inside.
I can't say it won't WORK, but in general offenses are built to run right, throw from a pocket, and not have right tackles in space.
I guess Nunn is analytical too.
Hope I'm not linking to another guy who ripped me off, but this is a good article on why Josh McCown should stick around.
The Browns want RG3 to start because he is one of the most gifted athletes in the NFL, and the only quarterback on the roster with the ability to put the team on his shoulders when necessary.
Is that too complicated or something?
Now, you can predict that Hue Jackson won't be able to rehabilitate the guy, and say he's done. That's fair, and you might be right. But the reason they want him to succeed is obvious.
The writer described the rest of the quarterbacks as mediocre, and that was truly ignorant. Sorry to repeat myself, but here we go:
1: Number one wide receiver: Travis Benjamin.
Number two wide receiver: Injured.
Number three wide receiver: You tell me.
2: No running game for most of the season.
3: Broken ribs, separated shoulder, concussion (3a: No time).
4: Constantly playing from behind.
5: McCown had a 92-plus qbr DESPITE all this. That's not mediocre. McCown did the same thing with the Bearss too. (He had a better team then.)
This goober blabbers about McCown might be better or something (I couldn't read it, really I'm allergic to stupid), but that only brings up reason number six why they want RG3 to start:
He is 26. Starting McCown will not get the 2016 Browns to the playoffs. NOTHING will do that. RG3 is still young, and can still improve with experience (notably in the pocket). They know what McCown is. At this point, a go-to backup you hope won't get busted up too soon, a teacher, mentor, and example.
By the way, Josh McCown has been with a lot of teams, but he is OURS now, isn't he? The guts and fire he showed, playing with those injuries...unforgettable. He's a Brown all right, or at least what you want a Brown to be! AND a great person!
Reason number seven is analytical. No Harvard degree required to comprehend this: An average or above performance makes him highly tradeable.
Don't ask why they would trade him ok? They might not but they always want that option.
NON-dumbass Chris Pokorny (Dawgs by Nature) continues his pre-season preview with part 2 of the defensive line.
Chris (and PFF) likes Jamie Meder a lot, and so do I. I don't believe in "overachievers", since none of us really achieve our potentials, but if there were such a thing, it's Meder. He doesn't have a really high ceiling, but he starts out on the third floor.
Chris introduces Nile Lawrence-Stample, who sounds remarkably like John Hughes; a big run-stuffer who CAN get a little penetration and pressure.
Chris thinks he has a shot to be the backup nose tackle, but I say so does John Hughes.
He can't help but point out that X Cooper rated dead last with PFF, but I like Chris a lot because he doesn't go on to suggest he sucks.
Good thing. Chris talks about the importance of stopping the run, but seems to overlook the Ray Horton factor:
This is common: Everybody thinks that a run-stopping defensive line has to two-gap and have guys like Hughes/Meder/Stample, but there are more ways to skin that cat.
The down linemen can one-gap and penetrate, and two inside players (linebackers or one of those and a safety) can plug the leaks (or come with them on run-blitzes for that matter.)
Much depends on the specific opponent and your own personnel, of course. The one-gap has a better chance vs big goons or zone-blocking, but not against g-power with a fast shifty running back, or a running quarterback.
One-gap is also better vs a brainy quick-release quarterback than a mad bomber too, because this scheme offers no pre-snap clues.
Ok-ok you do know that teams don't always run on "obvious run" downs right?
Anyway you don't want Xavier Cooper two-gapping. So stipulated. Mike Pettine had him two-gapping.
He makes the team case closed.
Coaches talked about using Nassib inside:
Well this tells me a lot about their plans:
First, understand that in Horton's scheme the left defensive end needs to have the length and reach to keep the right tackle at bay, and Nassib is "it", period. He HAS to play that position in this defense, because except for the venerable Des Bryant there is nobody else.
So I believe they will have him shaded inside the right tackle, and attacking the strong side b-gap a lot.
How they set the edge and cover to the sidelines is a separate issue, but this makes sense, because you don't want this underweight straight-line rookie trying to stand up right tackles or set the edge anyway.
It gets way deeper because, as I've said, nickels and dimes dominate the NFL today, and it's anybody's guess how Horton will handle that opponent-by-opponent, or where Nassib will fit.
Horton will use everything from one to five down linemen here, and in nickels and dimes Nassib is an unlikely edge player; an outside linebacker will do that.
Based on what Nunn said, they might get really unconventional with Nassib, and actually sometimes put him in the a-gaps.
Seriously, I've never heard this kind of talk before about a player like Nassib:
He does have a major reach advantage over guards and centers, and he is certainly a better athlete, but he's not very strong (yet), he'll find it hard to stay low, his first step is good but not great (like Cooper's), he'll be extra-vulnerable to cut-blocks, and...
Nah! No they might use him as a gap-shooter/pass batter-downer sometimes inside, but I really just think Nunn meant that the left DE will attack the b-gap.
But then, Nunn knows slightly more than I do about this stuff, so if I'm wrong I'm wrong.
But that lde thing is important. It means the left OLB stays outside and sets the edge more.
Having that DE attack the right guard makes it hard on an offense, because it means that right guard had better not pull, can't bother with Shelton or whoever else, and is overmatched by a much faster guy who will jolt him first with a head start.
But everything is a trade-off. Offenses will run away from him, roll the quarterback right, dump off right...they'll have the right tackle jab his pads to unbalance him, then target the edge-player (maybe with a tight end chip or real block), aim a shifty running back between them a lot, etc.
Still, I like it. Nassib or Bryant, with a running start, vs a right guard is a mismatch. Shelton or whoever one-on-one vs a center bodes well too.
Yeah it's risky, but underlying it is that the offense has to do stuff it's not built to do to overcome it, and can't stop penetration. It puts the right tackle out in space vs a superior athlete, pits a guard against a defensive end, gets the defensive end to the pocket, Nassib can tip or bat passes or claw at handoffs, they have to stay deep to get around him...
I picture a right tackle trying to nail Mingo or Ogbah in space. I find that funny to think about. Certain running backs coming behind them make that less funny, but like I said it's a trade-off, and one a defense should win more often than not.
If I'm right, opposing offenses will power run left and attack the right edge on the ground. They will roll out more, and use more short passes inside.
I can't say it won't WORK, but in general offenses are built to run right, throw from a pocket, and not have right tackles in space.
I guess Nunn is analytical too.
Hope I'm not linking to another guy who ripped me off, but this is a good article on why Josh McCown should stick around.
Thursday, June 30, 2016
Intelligent Life Among Cleveland Browns Punditry
In this pretty good article by Peter Smith, Pete discusses technique vs scheme:
This roster is short on experience and long on raw talent, so the coaches will have to forego the installation of any complex schemes.
Pete did a great job of finding comparisons among other coaches and teams. Notably, he pointed out how some simpler schemes have been very successful, including the Seahawks cover three.
He also mentions Baylor and Auburn (three skill players drafted by Browns plus RG3).
I'm almost afraid to do this with Peter Smith, but I have to disagree with one thing he wrote:
Ray Horton's defense is NOT complicated, especially compared to the Pettine/Ryan defense.
I can't believe this particular writer could screw up, so I have to think he was talking about Barkevious Mingo and outside linebacker in particular...or something.
Listen to the players themselves, and they'll tell you (whether in diplomatic code talk or openly) how they look forward to "just being able to play football" this season.
Indeed, a core feature of the Horton scheme is allowing players to be aggressive and rely on their instincts.
But as usual, this was an exceptional Peter Smith article. Just not perfect.
Pete's general case supports my own:
Hue Jackson will use Baylor and Chip Kelly principles to get his young whippersnappers going quickly, and introduce more complex stuff only gradually.
As Peter himself mentions, Ray Horton will also start his kindergarteners out with training wheels.
Here is another great article by Pete about the youth of the current roster. This guy is great.
I can't say the same for Ryan Rosco. This was a pretty good article predicting that EJ Bibbs would be the number two tight end.
That could well be the case, but Ryan cited how Hue loves two tight end offenses.
This is based on the personnel he was given to work with in Cincinnati. It ignores the fact that the second tight end was more often than not an offensive lineman.
Further, in drafting Seth DeValve, Hue and company told those who pay attention that Hue isn't too worried about a conventional tight end.
Also, as I wrote previously, EJ is a tad vertically challenged, and not as fast as DeValve. This writer shouldn't be writing the rookie off.
Don't get me wrong: I wouldn't bet against EJ Bibbs, and like him a lot. I think he will be on the field a lot more this season. I'm just not sure he'll be number two.
Chris Pokorney wrote a great article on the Browns running backs. He breaks down Crowell's stats into three blocks of games.
Crow started out decently, then was hideous for a long stretch, then was great for the last five games.
Chris cites a change in the blocking scheme late, and (refreshingly) suggests that blocking was (duh) a big factor overall.
I can shed light on how these stats broke down sequentially:
Despite a seemingly less effective overall run blocking scheme (ask Doug Dieken), Crowell managed 3.8 yards per carry early.
After several games, here is what happened when defensive quality control coaches showed defensive coordinators condensed Browns running plays:
"There. That was forty handoffs to Crowell. Notice anything?"
"Where are the runs to the strong side?"
"There aren't any."
"You're kidding! Really?"
"Yep."
After that, defenses shot the gaps on the left side of the offensive line regardless of down or distance. Crowell never had a chance, and the quarterbacks got pounded to mush as a bonus.
You could see it. The edge player would contain, to make sure the back couldn't bounce outside, and at least two others would shoot between tackle and center.
In the last five games, it finally dawned on Flip that it was okay to run to the strong side once in awhile, and Crow averaged 5.2 ypc. The quarterbacks also had a little more time.
This is what Hue Jackson saw the first time he scanned the game films, and why he said he was happy with the running backs he'd inherited. It's why no running backs were drafted.
I haven't been able to see a lot of tapes, and could be wrong about this:
I think that one of the blocking changes was using an offensive lineman as a blocking tight end, and scrapping the fullback.
On that topic, I had predicted more zone-blocking, but based on player comments, it sounds like at least some man-blocking (which includes pulling guards "g-power".)
Well, in Hue I trust.
Dan Lavoi (Buffalo Rumblings) wrote a piece on analytics and the Browns. It's pretty good overall. Dan tries not to make assumptions when trying to figure out how the experiment is working, but can't help being a tad myopic.
Analytics was a headline, not a mission statement. They've all said, over and over again, that analytics was only part of this. A lot of people just stopped listening after they read the headline.
Dan can't figure out why the Browns drafted Cody Kessler, when his analytics were so bad.
Well, Paul DePodesta might have wanted a different quarterback, but clearly Hue Jackson liked Kessler, and analytics be damned.
And once again, Dan reflexively declares the Browns roster AFTER the off season devoid of impact players.
Sigh.
Barnidge Coleman Johnson (Gordon/Pryor) Ogbah.
There are others who have been buried prematurely or sent to the cornfield before they even showed up:
Shelton Cooper Campbell Haden and three wide receivers.
I swear I don't know how they define "impact" or how many they think a team with only twenty two starters needs.
On offense, there is a quarterback (go ahead and deny that RG3 can't be an impact player I dare you) and five skill players. If Duke, Gary, and Cory aren't impact players, who is?
Is Gronk the only impact tight end in the NFL? How high are you raising the bar this week? First string All-Pro? Oh. Well I guess you got me there stop it just stop it.
But overall this was a very good article which provides good insight into how analytics seem to have factored into a lot of these moves.
Dan also points to the Raiders as a good model, and amen to that! Slow and steady wins the race.
Oh man Peter Smith wrote another good article on Terrell Watson, and how he should fit into this offense.
Happily, he stopped short of kicking Crowell to the curb, but he points out that Watson is 17 lbs heavier, and cites very respectable combine numbers.
Per Pete, Watson isn't cute or elusive. He is a north-south power runner.
As Pete and I have been telling you, the likeliest Browns Offense will be a spread (and I got the Baylor concepts from Peter Smith too btw).
Watson fits this extremely well, since against smaller, faster players defenses will run nickels and dimes, and be unable to safely stack the box.
This means a big sledge hammer like Watson can exploit any small seam between the tackles, and sometimes carry real momentum into the secondary (this is when the faint-hearted should close their eyes).
Pete mentions how a big power back can wear down a defense.
I'm happy to point out that Pete missed a few things:
1: As part of a two-back, he could lead-block.
2: He is 6'2", and would be an ideal max pass protector vs big blitzers and
3: He might turn out to be a decent receiver, now that he's had some time to work on that.
Smith points out the differences between the 2015 Bengals offensive scheme and the one Hue Jackson is compelled to run here.
The Bengals loaded up with big people and relied on power-blocking. The Browns will rely on outside receiving threats to create space and force lighter defenders onto the field.
It seems at first counter-intuitive, but Terrell Watson fits this offense better than he fit the Bengals'. He is the "counter-weight".
I really look forward to seeing how these coaches will mix and match these running backs!
This roster is short on experience and long on raw talent, so the coaches will have to forego the installation of any complex schemes.
Pete did a great job of finding comparisons among other coaches and teams. Notably, he pointed out how some simpler schemes have been very successful, including the Seahawks cover three.
He also mentions Baylor and Auburn (three skill players drafted by Browns plus RG3).
I'm almost afraid to do this with Peter Smith, but I have to disagree with one thing he wrote:
Ray Horton's defense is NOT complicated, especially compared to the Pettine/Ryan defense.
I can't believe this particular writer could screw up, so I have to think he was talking about Barkevious Mingo and outside linebacker in particular...or something.
Listen to the players themselves, and they'll tell you (whether in diplomatic code talk or openly) how they look forward to "just being able to play football" this season.
Indeed, a core feature of the Horton scheme is allowing players to be aggressive and rely on their instincts.
But as usual, this was an exceptional Peter Smith article. Just not perfect.
Pete's general case supports my own:
Hue Jackson will use Baylor and Chip Kelly principles to get his young whippersnappers going quickly, and introduce more complex stuff only gradually.
As Peter himself mentions, Ray Horton will also start his kindergarteners out with training wheels.
Here is another great article by Pete about the youth of the current roster. This guy is great.
I can't say the same for Ryan Rosco. This was a pretty good article predicting that EJ Bibbs would be the number two tight end.
That could well be the case, but Ryan cited how Hue loves two tight end offenses.
This is based on the personnel he was given to work with in Cincinnati. It ignores the fact that the second tight end was more often than not an offensive lineman.
Further, in drafting Seth DeValve, Hue and company told those who pay attention that Hue isn't too worried about a conventional tight end.
Also, as I wrote previously, EJ is a tad vertically challenged, and not as fast as DeValve. This writer shouldn't be writing the rookie off.
Don't get me wrong: I wouldn't bet against EJ Bibbs, and like him a lot. I think he will be on the field a lot more this season. I'm just not sure he'll be number two.
Chris Pokorney wrote a great article on the Browns running backs. He breaks down Crowell's stats into three blocks of games.
Crow started out decently, then was hideous for a long stretch, then was great for the last five games.
Chris cites a change in the blocking scheme late, and (refreshingly) suggests that blocking was (duh) a big factor overall.
I can shed light on how these stats broke down sequentially:
Despite a seemingly less effective overall run blocking scheme (ask Doug Dieken), Crowell managed 3.8 yards per carry early.
After several games, here is what happened when defensive quality control coaches showed defensive coordinators condensed Browns running plays:
"There. That was forty handoffs to Crowell. Notice anything?"
"Where are the runs to the strong side?"
"There aren't any."
"You're kidding! Really?"
"Yep."
After that, defenses shot the gaps on the left side of the offensive line regardless of down or distance. Crowell never had a chance, and the quarterbacks got pounded to mush as a bonus.
You could see it. The edge player would contain, to make sure the back couldn't bounce outside, and at least two others would shoot between tackle and center.
In the last five games, it finally dawned on Flip that it was okay to run to the strong side once in awhile, and Crow averaged 5.2 ypc. The quarterbacks also had a little more time.
This is what Hue Jackson saw the first time he scanned the game films, and why he said he was happy with the running backs he'd inherited. It's why no running backs were drafted.
I haven't been able to see a lot of tapes, and could be wrong about this:
I think that one of the blocking changes was using an offensive lineman as a blocking tight end, and scrapping the fullback.
On that topic, I had predicted more zone-blocking, but based on player comments, it sounds like at least some man-blocking (which includes pulling guards "g-power".)
Well, in Hue I trust.
Dan Lavoi (Buffalo Rumblings) wrote a piece on analytics and the Browns. It's pretty good overall. Dan tries not to make assumptions when trying to figure out how the experiment is working, but can't help being a tad myopic.
Analytics was a headline, not a mission statement. They've all said, over and over again, that analytics was only part of this. A lot of people just stopped listening after they read the headline.
Dan can't figure out why the Browns drafted Cody Kessler, when his analytics were so bad.
Well, Paul DePodesta might have wanted a different quarterback, but clearly Hue Jackson liked Kessler, and analytics be damned.
And once again, Dan reflexively declares the Browns roster AFTER the off season devoid of impact players.
Sigh.
Barnidge Coleman Johnson (Gordon/Pryor) Ogbah.
There are others who have been buried prematurely or sent to the cornfield before they even showed up:
Shelton Cooper Campbell Haden and three wide receivers.
I swear I don't know how they define "impact" or how many they think a team with only twenty two starters needs.
On offense, there is a quarterback (go ahead and deny that RG3 can't be an impact player I dare you) and five skill players. If Duke, Gary, and Cory aren't impact players, who is?
Is Gronk the only impact tight end in the NFL? How high are you raising the bar this week? First string All-Pro? Oh. Well I guess you got me there stop it just stop it.
But overall this was a very good article which provides good insight into how analytics seem to have factored into a lot of these moves.
Dan also points to the Raiders as a good model, and amen to that! Slow and steady wins the race.
Oh man Peter Smith wrote another good article on Terrell Watson, and how he should fit into this offense.
Happily, he stopped short of kicking Crowell to the curb, but he points out that Watson is 17 lbs heavier, and cites very respectable combine numbers.
Per Pete, Watson isn't cute or elusive. He is a north-south power runner.
As Pete and I have been telling you, the likeliest Browns Offense will be a spread (and I got the Baylor concepts from Peter Smith too btw).
Watson fits this extremely well, since against smaller, faster players defenses will run nickels and dimes, and be unable to safely stack the box.
This means a big sledge hammer like Watson can exploit any small seam between the tackles, and sometimes carry real momentum into the secondary (this is when the faint-hearted should close their eyes).
Pete mentions how a big power back can wear down a defense.
I'm happy to point out that Pete missed a few things:
1: As part of a two-back, he could lead-block.
2: He is 6'2", and would be an ideal max pass protector vs big blitzers and
3: He might turn out to be a decent receiver, now that he's had some time to work on that.
Smith points out the differences between the 2015 Bengals offensive scheme and the one Hue Jackson is compelled to run here.
The Bengals loaded up with big people and relied on power-blocking. The Browns will rely on outside receiving threats to create space and force lighter defenders onto the field.
It seems at first counter-intuitive, but Terrell Watson fits this offense better than he fit the Bengals'. He is the "counter-weight".
I really look forward to seeing how these coaches will mix and match these running backs!
Monday, June 27, 2016
Hue and Ray's Swiss Army Knives
All NFL coaches love versatile players, and this goes double for Ray Horton and Hue Jackson. Fortunately, the current Browns roster has a bunch of Swiss army knives.
As I predicted 😉, Pierre Desir is being tried at safety. What that really means is that he may be used as a utility guy and play in some nickels and dimes.
While most fans have been sleeping, the Browns have loaded up on true safeties, and despite moving on from the venerable Whitten, this is a strong and deep position overall.
Desir is the tallest back end player. Though he was up and down as a second year spot starter, he did show enough as a pure corner to indicate that he can do a good job against bigger receivers who rely more on muscle than quickness.
Ogbah might not belong on this list, since it's standard procedure for an outside linebacker in this defense to sometimes put his hand on the ground.
Still, Ogbah is bigger and (especially) stronger than most, and as a defensive end needs less space.
Mingo tops this list defensively, as for now I seem to have nailed his role again. He will again cover more than the other linebackers, and might also be shifted around to rush from different angles.
Ogbah probably has this in his future, but as a rookie will probably be asked to master one position.
Schobert can play inside or outside, and early indications say that the predraft scouting reports sold him short. He has excelled in coverage.
He won't compete with the big guys at outside linebacker, but can be used all over the place and do everything.
Horton has to love this, because with these players he can screw with offenses and be unpredictable.
Offensively, it naturally starts with Duke. Nuff said.
Corey Coleman is the wide receiver version of Duke Johnson. Because of his "less than ideal" height, explosive cuts, and decent size, he can do everything a running back does.
If you peel another layer off this onion, there could be situations where Coleman will set up in the backfield while Duke lines up wide. I know that sounds stupid, but the two players are not identical, and the defender who matches up with one might not be so hot against the other. Coleman is also faster, so certain overall defenses aren't built to stop a running back with his flat-out speed.
Coleman is a freak. He happens to be a wide receiver, but could as well have played running back and been the second one off the board in his draft class.
EJ Bibbs is a Swiss army knife too. He was more or less a true tight end and H-back in college. Bad scouting aside, he was a decent in-line blocker, but primarily was a receiver who caught and ran with mostly short passes.
The undrafted free agent made the team last season off an impressive pre-season, but wasn't used much as a rookie.
Now with a season under his belt, he will again be tried at fullback.
Those who tell you that Hue Jackson wants a blocking fullback haven't done their homework or learned anything from who the Browns drafted or signed.
Like me, Hue doesn't like the idea of a one-dimensional lead-blocker. Mike Pettine tried to use Malcolm Johnson in this role.
I'm not here to inter any talented player off a poor rookie season (or because of who drafted him), but this did not work.
The defense keys a blocking fullback. He tells you where the ball is going. If he gets knocked down or stonewalled, it's over.
If an EJ Bibbs happens to line up in the backfield, they can't key him. In fact, he is more likely to be a receiver than a blocker.
He may well charge forward at the snap, but the safeties can't assume it's a run until they actually see it. That's because it might be a pass. And Bibbs will be uncovered.
When a defense sees Bibbs on the field, they have to consider him a big receiver and substitute on that basis.
Lead-blocking isn't as simple as it seems. Hue Jackson hopes he can do this, on top of everything else. If he can, he not only makes this team, but plays.
Notable: Bibbs is under 6'3". He's not like Seth Devalve. He is a compact 258 lbs, and not as fast. His size and stature are why some scouts projected him as a fullback.
Lots of people seem to think Terrell Pryor is a gimmick waiting to happen.
In reality, he's not a guy you want lining up at running back. As coaches have pointed out, it's not easy for skyscrapers like him to make hard cuts, and he's too big a target.
He can run a wildcat, or something else we can count on Hue Jackson to invent, as a quarterback. He can take an end-around and turn into an option passer. He can line up in the slot.
...okay, that will do!
Seth Devalve can play some H-Back and line up outside, so he's sort of a cut-down Swiss army knife too.
RG3 is dangerous with his legs, and Hue will exploit this, so we have to include him.
With all these tools, the Browns can be unpredictable, extra-deep, retain better special teams players, and force favorable matchups almost all the time.
Even if it were true (and it's not) that the current roster is a black hole, this team can still be insidiously diabolical and sneaky.
Sneaky, well-coached teams can beat more talented teams, especially when they can force a matchup the other team doesn't want.
Defenses are stuck with the people they have on the field in the huddle. They can adjust to a Pryor setting up in the slot and DeValve outside by simply switching where their coverage guys line up.
But this forces man instead of zone or vice-versa, puts defenders in spots where they're not experienced or comfortable, and tells the offense what they're up to.
If they don't adjust, they have a 5'8" cornerback on Terrell Pryor.
Just an example. Hue will be doing this a lot, because he has a bunch of Swiss army knives. I don't know how many games they'll win this season, but it will be fun to watch.
As I predicted 😉, Pierre Desir is being tried at safety. What that really means is that he may be used as a utility guy and play in some nickels and dimes.
While most fans have been sleeping, the Browns have loaded up on true safeties, and despite moving on from the venerable Whitten, this is a strong and deep position overall.
Desir is the tallest back end player. Though he was up and down as a second year spot starter, he did show enough as a pure corner to indicate that he can do a good job against bigger receivers who rely more on muscle than quickness.
Ogbah might not belong on this list, since it's standard procedure for an outside linebacker in this defense to sometimes put his hand on the ground.
Still, Ogbah is bigger and (especially) stronger than most, and as a defensive end needs less space.
Mingo tops this list defensively, as for now I seem to have nailed his role again. He will again cover more than the other linebackers, and might also be shifted around to rush from different angles.
Ogbah probably has this in his future, but as a rookie will probably be asked to master one position.
Schobert can play inside or outside, and early indications say that the predraft scouting reports sold him short. He has excelled in coverage.
He won't compete with the big guys at outside linebacker, but can be used all over the place and do everything.
Horton has to love this, because with these players he can screw with offenses and be unpredictable.
Offensively, it naturally starts with Duke. Nuff said.
Corey Coleman is the wide receiver version of Duke Johnson. Because of his "less than ideal" height, explosive cuts, and decent size, he can do everything a running back does.
If you peel another layer off this onion, there could be situations where Coleman will set up in the backfield while Duke lines up wide. I know that sounds stupid, but the two players are not identical, and the defender who matches up with one might not be so hot against the other. Coleman is also faster, so certain overall defenses aren't built to stop a running back with his flat-out speed.
Coleman is a freak. He happens to be a wide receiver, but could as well have played running back and been the second one off the board in his draft class.
EJ Bibbs is a Swiss army knife too. He was more or less a true tight end and H-back in college. Bad scouting aside, he was a decent in-line blocker, but primarily was a receiver who caught and ran with mostly short passes.
The undrafted free agent made the team last season off an impressive pre-season, but wasn't used much as a rookie.
Now with a season under his belt, he will again be tried at fullback.
Those who tell you that Hue Jackson wants a blocking fullback haven't done their homework or learned anything from who the Browns drafted or signed.
Like me, Hue doesn't like the idea of a one-dimensional lead-blocker. Mike Pettine tried to use Malcolm Johnson in this role.
I'm not here to inter any talented player off a poor rookie season (or because of who drafted him), but this did not work.
The defense keys a blocking fullback. He tells you where the ball is going. If he gets knocked down or stonewalled, it's over.
If an EJ Bibbs happens to line up in the backfield, they can't key him. In fact, he is more likely to be a receiver than a blocker.
He may well charge forward at the snap, but the safeties can't assume it's a run until they actually see it. That's because it might be a pass. And Bibbs will be uncovered.
When a defense sees Bibbs on the field, they have to consider him a big receiver and substitute on that basis.
Lead-blocking isn't as simple as it seems. Hue Jackson hopes he can do this, on top of everything else. If he can, he not only makes this team, but plays.
Notable: Bibbs is under 6'3". He's not like Seth Devalve. He is a compact 258 lbs, and not as fast. His size and stature are why some scouts projected him as a fullback.
Lots of people seem to think Terrell Pryor is a gimmick waiting to happen.
In reality, he's not a guy you want lining up at running back. As coaches have pointed out, it's not easy for skyscrapers like him to make hard cuts, and he's too big a target.
He can run a wildcat, or something else we can count on Hue Jackson to invent, as a quarterback. He can take an end-around and turn into an option passer. He can line up in the slot.
...okay, that will do!
Seth Devalve can play some H-Back and line up outside, so he's sort of a cut-down Swiss army knife too.
RG3 is dangerous with his legs, and Hue will exploit this, so we have to include him.
With all these tools, the Browns can be unpredictable, extra-deep, retain better special teams players, and force favorable matchups almost all the time.
Even if it were true (and it's not) that the current roster is a black hole, this team can still be insidiously diabolical and sneaky.
Sneaky, well-coached teams can beat more talented teams, especially when they can force a matchup the other team doesn't want.
Defenses are stuck with the people they have on the field in the huddle. They can adjust to a Pryor setting up in the slot and DeValve outside by simply switching where their coverage guys line up.
But this forces man instead of zone or vice-versa, puts defenders in spots where they're not experienced or comfortable, and tells the offense what they're up to.
If they don't adjust, they have a 5'8" cornerback on Terrell Pryor.
Just an example. Hue will be doing this a lot, because he has a bunch of Swiss army knives. I don't know how many games they'll win this season, but it will be fun to watch.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Hue Jackson's Rubic's Cube Offense
The Browns' offense isn't hard to figure out any more. Much of this will be redundant. I'll try to freshen in up with new details.
The first clue was signing RG3. Next was trading down and selecting, of all players, Corey Coleman first. The third was picking Seth DeValve, rather than a tight end who could block in-line. Finally, the non-selection of a blocking fullback.
More recently, another writer has reminded me of the offense Hue ran in Cincinnati. He used read-option and other non-conventional formations and plays.
The Bengals roster was loaded with talent, and Hue could have run any offense he wanted. He ran this unusual stuff when he had his pick, and Andy Dalton.
The plot thickens! Hue feels really good about RG3 in his favorite offensive system.
He split Eiffert out a lot. He ran some two tight end power offenses, but the second tight end was an offensive lineman. I love that. All my life, I never could figure out why a blocking tight end who never caught anything was considered so important. I said just quit being cute and use a tackle. I guess Hue agrees.
They chose Coleman over taller guys. Why? I think it's because Coleman can line up anywhere, including in the backfield. Also, because the fact that he ran a limited route tree didn't bother Hue as much as it did other coaches.
The other four drafted receivers (including DeValve) all have run-after-catch ability in common (and are over six feet tall). This means something.
Now, Hue inherited Duke Johnson, Gary Barnidge, and Terrell Pryor. This may well have influenced him, because Pryor and Duke can be used everywhere as well. (Yes I do believe that Hue took Pryor seriously right away.)
In reality, some of the more effective running games in the NFL are run out of three and four-wide spreads. One (or no) tight end and no fullback.
We know that Hue (and Kirby) intend to run a lot, but they didn't seem to care about in-line tight ends or fullbacks. The game is afoot!
As I've mentioned too many times already, I see the Baylor coming, because Pryor and Coleman can do that right away.
This implies four wide receivers, except it doesn't. It just means four guys who line up wide. These can include running backs or tight ends.
Who are the Browns best and most dangerous players?
Well, you have to list Corey Coleman here, then Duke and Gary and (I say Pryor).
The base personnel package should include one tight end and one running back. I believe one other guy will more often than not be a second tight end or second running back.
Hue will fool around some here. He might have a tight end in the backfield sometimes.
11 personnel means 3-wide and 21 or 12 means conventional. How different defenses, knowing how diabolically insidious and sneaky Hue is, answer this will vary.
But they're in trouble no matter what they do, because of this:
1: Duke can line up anywhere.
2: So can Coleman.
3: Pryor is too tall to be a running back, but if HE takes an end-around, you don't dare come out of coverage to stop him. He could do this 3-5 times per game.
Yes, Coleman can not only set up as a running back, but take handcuffs.
This means that a one-back can become a two-back, or an empty backfield. Defenses won't know who will line up where or what the offense will do.
Can you imagine trying to install a game plan for this offense? You have to prepare for that end-around. Then for the Baylor, a more conventional 4-wide, 3-wide, 2-back, 2 tight end, giant blocking back, read-option with a big guy or quick short guy...
Most likely, the default will be penetration and pressure. Screw RG3 up and pound him. Try to blow stuff up.
That's what DeValve and the bigger run-after-catch guys are for. That's unmistakably west coast.
That's the challenge. That has been RG3's weakness: Getting rid of the ball quickly and to the right guy.
Hue clearly believes that RG3 can do this now.
He'll never be great at this, but won't have to a whole lot. It has to be part of the offense, but needn't be the core of it.
First, Hue intends to have a strong running game. Next, some read-option and plenty of play-action (and deeper passes). Screen passes. Dumpoffs. Rollouts. End-arounds (by an NFL quarterback).
What could go wrong? Well yeah ok plenty. If the run doesn't work, play action won't. If there's too much penetration, the read option won't work. If RG3 can't execute the quick crosses and slants on time, that's going to hurt a lot.
He HAS to be able to do this. Even if it's just six or eight times a game, he has to show defenses he can burn pressure with quick, on-time, accurate short throws.
If he doesn't, they'll swarm the backfield.
But I digress: The 2016 Browns Offense will be a spread, and beyond that just too confusing and unpredictable to define.
Is that clear?
The first clue was signing RG3. Next was trading down and selecting, of all players, Corey Coleman first. The third was picking Seth DeValve, rather than a tight end who could block in-line. Finally, the non-selection of a blocking fullback.
More recently, another writer has reminded me of the offense Hue ran in Cincinnati. He used read-option and other non-conventional formations and plays.
The Bengals roster was loaded with talent, and Hue could have run any offense he wanted. He ran this unusual stuff when he had his pick, and Andy Dalton.
The plot thickens! Hue feels really good about RG3 in his favorite offensive system.
He split Eiffert out a lot. He ran some two tight end power offenses, but the second tight end was an offensive lineman. I love that. All my life, I never could figure out why a blocking tight end who never caught anything was considered so important. I said just quit being cute and use a tackle. I guess Hue agrees.
They chose Coleman over taller guys. Why? I think it's because Coleman can line up anywhere, including in the backfield. Also, because the fact that he ran a limited route tree didn't bother Hue as much as it did other coaches.
The other four drafted receivers (including DeValve) all have run-after-catch ability in common (and are over six feet tall). This means something.
Now, Hue inherited Duke Johnson, Gary Barnidge, and Terrell Pryor. This may well have influenced him, because Pryor and Duke can be used everywhere as well. (Yes I do believe that Hue took Pryor seriously right away.)
In reality, some of the more effective running games in the NFL are run out of three and four-wide spreads. One (or no) tight end and no fullback.
We know that Hue (and Kirby) intend to run a lot, but they didn't seem to care about in-line tight ends or fullbacks. The game is afoot!
As I've mentioned too many times already, I see the Baylor coming, because Pryor and Coleman can do that right away.
This implies four wide receivers, except it doesn't. It just means four guys who line up wide. These can include running backs or tight ends.
Who are the Browns best and most dangerous players?
Well, you have to list Corey Coleman here, then Duke and Gary and (I say Pryor).
The base personnel package should include one tight end and one running back. I believe one other guy will more often than not be a second tight end or second running back.
Hue will fool around some here. He might have a tight end in the backfield sometimes.
11 personnel means 3-wide and 21 or 12 means conventional. How different defenses, knowing how diabolically insidious and sneaky Hue is, answer this will vary.
But they're in trouble no matter what they do, because of this:
1: Duke can line up anywhere.
2: So can Coleman.
3: Pryor is too tall to be a running back, but if HE takes an end-around, you don't dare come out of coverage to stop him. He could do this 3-5 times per game.
Yes, Coleman can not only set up as a running back, but take handcuffs.
This means that a one-back can become a two-back, or an empty backfield. Defenses won't know who will line up where or what the offense will do.
Can you imagine trying to install a game plan for this offense? You have to prepare for that end-around. Then for the Baylor, a more conventional 4-wide, 3-wide, 2-back, 2 tight end, giant blocking back, read-option with a big guy or quick short guy...
Most likely, the default will be penetration and pressure. Screw RG3 up and pound him. Try to blow stuff up.
That's what DeValve and the bigger run-after-catch guys are for. That's unmistakably west coast.
That's the challenge. That has been RG3's weakness: Getting rid of the ball quickly and to the right guy.
Hue clearly believes that RG3 can do this now.
He'll never be great at this, but won't have to a whole lot. It has to be part of the offense, but needn't be the core of it.
First, Hue intends to have a strong running game. Next, some read-option and plenty of play-action (and deeper passes). Screen passes. Dumpoffs. Rollouts. End-arounds (by an NFL quarterback).
What could go wrong? Well yeah ok plenty. If the run doesn't work, play action won't. If there's too much penetration, the read option won't work. If RG3 can't execute the quick crosses and slants on time, that's going to hurt a lot.
He HAS to be able to do this. Even if it's just six or eight times a game, he has to show defenses he can burn pressure with quick, on-time, accurate short throws.
If he doesn't, they'll swarm the backfield.
But I digress: The 2016 Browns Offense will be a spread, and beyond that just too confusing and unpredictable to define.
Is that clear?
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