Thursday, June 30, 2016

Intelligent Life Among Cleveland Browns Punditry

In this pretty good article by Peter Smith, Pete discusses technique vs scheme: 

This roster is short on experience and long on raw talent, so the coaches will have to forego the installation of any complex schemes.

Pete did a great job of finding comparisons among other coaches and teams.  Notably, he pointed out how some simpler schemes have been very successful, including the Seahawks cover three.

He also mentions Baylor and Auburn (three skill players drafted by Browns plus RG3).

I'm almost afraid to do this with Peter Smith, but I have to disagree with one thing he wrote:

Ray Horton's defense is NOT complicated, especially compared to the Pettine/Ryan defense.  

I can't believe this particular writer could screw up, so I have to think he was talking about Barkevious Mingo and outside linebacker in particular...or something.

Listen to the players themselves, and they'll tell you (whether in diplomatic code talk or openly) how they look forward to "just being able to play football" this season.

Indeed, a core feature of the Horton scheme is allowing players to be aggressive and rely on their instincts.

But as usual, this was an exceptional Peter Smith article.  Just not perfect.

Pete's general case supports my own:

Hue Jackson will use Baylor and Chip Kelly principles to get his young whippersnappers going quickly, and introduce more complex stuff only gradually.

As Peter himself mentions, Ray Horton will also start his kindergarteners out with training wheels.

Here is another great article by Pete about the youth of the current roster.  This guy is great.

I can't say the same for Ryan Rosco.  This was a pretty good article predicting that EJ Bibbs would be the number two tight end.

That could well be the case, but Ryan cited how Hue loves two tight end offenses.

This is based on the personnel he was given to work with in Cincinnati.  It ignores the fact that the second tight end was more often than not an offensive lineman.

Further, in drafting Seth DeValve, Hue and company told those who pay attention that Hue isn't too worried about a conventional tight end.

Also, as I wrote previously, EJ is a tad vertically challenged, and not as fast as DeValve.  This writer shouldn't be writing the rookie off.

Don't get me wrong: I wouldn't bet against EJ Bibbs, and like him a lot.  I think he will be on the field a lot more this season.  I'm just not sure he'll be number two.

Chris Pokorney wrote a great article on the Browns running backs.  He breaks down Crowell's stats into three blocks of games.

Crow started out decently, then was hideous for a long stretch, then was great for the last five games.

Chris cites a change in the blocking scheme late, and (refreshingly) suggests that blocking was (duh) a big factor overall.  

I can shed light on how these stats broke down sequentially:

Despite a seemingly less effective overall run blocking scheme (ask Doug Dieken), Crowell managed 3.8 yards per carry early.

After several games, here is what happened when defensive quality control coaches showed defensive coordinators condensed Browns running plays:

"There.  That was forty handoffs to Crowell.  Notice anything?"

"Where are the runs to the strong side?"

"There aren't any."

"You're kidding!  Really?"

"Yep."

After that, defenses shot the gaps on the left side of the offensive line regardless of down or distance.  Crowell never had a chance, and the quarterbacks got pounded to mush as a bonus.

You could see it.  The edge player would contain, to make sure the back couldn't bounce outside, and at least two others would shoot between tackle and center.

In the last five games, it finally dawned on Flip that it was okay to run to the strong side once in awhile, and Crow averaged 5.2 ypc.  The quarterbacks also had a little more time.

This is what Hue Jackson saw the first time he scanned the game films, and why he said he was happy with the running backs he'd inherited.  It's why no running backs were drafted.

I haven't been able to see a lot of tapes, and could be wrong about this:

I think that one of the blocking changes was using an offensive lineman as a blocking tight end, and scrapping the fullback.

On that topic, I had predicted more zone-blocking, but based on player comments, it sounds like at least some man-blocking (which includes pulling guards "g-power".)

Well, in Hue I trust.

Dan Lavoi (Buffalo Rumblings) wrote a piece on analytics and the Browns.  It's pretty good overall.  Dan tries not to make assumptions when trying to figure out how the experiment is working, but can't help being a tad myopic.

Analytics was a headline, not a mission statement.  They've all said, over and over again, that analytics was only part of this.  A lot of people just stopped listening after they read the headline.

Dan can't figure out why the Browns drafted Cody Kessler, when his analytics were so bad.

Well, Paul DePodesta might have wanted a different quarterback, but clearly Hue Jackson liked Kessler, and analytics be damned.  

And once again, Dan reflexively declares the Browns roster AFTER the off season devoid of impact players.

Sigh.

Barnidge Coleman Johnson (Gordon/Pryor) Ogbah.

There are others who have been buried prematurely or sent to the cornfield before they even showed up:

Shelton Cooper Campbell Haden and three wide receivers.

I swear I don't know how they define "impact" or how many they think a team with only twenty two starters needs.

On offense, there is a quarterback (go ahead and deny that RG3 can't be an impact player I dare you) and five skill players.  If Duke, Gary, and Cory aren't impact players, who is?

Is Gronk the only impact tight end in the NFL?  How high are you raising the bar this week?  First string All-Pro?  Oh.  Well I guess you got me there stop it just stop it.

But overall this was a very good article which provides good insight into how analytics seem to have factored into a lot of these moves.

Dan also points to the Raiders as a good model, and amen to that!  Slow and steady wins the race.

Oh man Peter Smith wrote another good article on Terrell Watson, and how he should fit into this offense.

Happily, he stopped short of kicking Crowell to the curb, but he points out that Watson is 17 lbs heavier, and cites very respectable combine numbers.

Per Pete, Watson isn't cute or elusive.  He is a north-south power runner.
As Pete and I have been telling you, the likeliest Browns Offense will be a spread (and I got the Baylor concepts from Peter Smith too btw).

Watson fits this extremely well, since against smaller, faster players defenses will run nickels and dimes, and be unable to safely stack the box.

This means a big sledge hammer like Watson can exploit any small seam between the tackles, and sometimes carry real momentum into the secondary (this is when the faint-hearted should close their eyes).

Pete mentions how a big power back can wear down a defense.

I'm happy to point out that Pete missed a few things: 

1: As part of a two-back, he could lead-block.
2: He is 6'2", and would be an ideal max pass protector vs big blitzers and 
3: He might turn out to be a decent receiver, now that he's had some time to work on that.

Smith points out the differences between the 2015 Bengals offensive scheme and the one Hue Jackson is compelled to run here.

The Bengals loaded up with big people and relied on power-blocking.  The Browns will rely on outside receiving threats to create space and force lighter defenders onto the field.

It seems at first counter-intuitive, but Terrell Watson fits this offense better than he fit the Bengals'.  He is the "counter-weight".

I really look forward to seeing how these coaches will mix and match these running backs!


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