For the Broncos, the "beeping" sound you hear is Von Miller backing up the Brinks truck.
The Broncos have problems, with current cap space of seven million. Ryan Clady and a couple other guys could renegotiate to increase that, and some players could be cut loose to free up some more, but Denver has a tall order.
For an excellent and comprehensive in depth analysis of Denver's current challenges and what they might do, this article was my main source. In this writer's opinion, the Broncos could try to simulate the Nick Fole's deal (to retain Osweiler), which (despite the big numbers) would actually count as around five million against their cap.
I think he's underestimating a bit, but close enough. The Browns could certainly outbid the Broncos, however.
Much is dependant on what Gramps Manning does. The writer said it would be difficult to keep both quarterbacks.
I've got to say this, however: If I'm Brock Osweiler, I'm angry. Brock Osweiler is the better quarterback. Yet his Head Coach yanked him on the eve of the playoffs. And listen to the talk: If Manning stays, Brock can expect to collect more splinters in his fifth season.
If Peyton retires, he probably wants to stay, but again, if it's me, I explore the market first. If that happens, the Broncos can't match Cleveland's offer. That doesn't mean he won't accept less to stay in Denver.
On the surface, he would want to. The Broncos will lose some talent, but should remain a force to be reckoned with.
But looking deeper, a young team coached by Hue Jackson has some appeal as well. The cap is the cap, and Denver will inevitably erode in the coming years. The Browns (you heard me mention Hue Jackson right are you paying attention?) are getting better.
As you can tell, I like Osweiller a lot, and bet Hue does too. While the top two quarterbacks in this draft could end up being great, they're far from a sure thing. Osweiler is tested and proven, with remaining upside. And the number two overall pick could then be.....
More practical Denver targets for the Browns would be DE Malik Jackson, ILB Danny Trevathan, and Ronny Hillman. Jackson is the big one here.
The Panthers have around 24 million. They can keep all their top young guys, and unlike the Broncos, they're just getting started. Nothing to see here.
In an earlier article, I bashed somebody for talking about Osweiler. In my defense, I had faulty data on the Broncos salary cap number. I thought they had a lot more ammunition than they do.
Not everybody is that high on Osweiler. He wasn't spectacular or anything. The Chargers were giving him a hard time when he got yanked, but Manning was similar.
I leave this to Hue Jackson. The last Manning understudy I saw, however, was Kelly Holcomb. Holcomb didn't have Osweiler's pedigree or tools.
Whatever. Hue will know best, and he sure beats the hell out of drafting a quarterback later in the draft. (And don't say Osweiler was a second rounder. We don't have four years here.)
Now we can watch possible future Browns in the Superbowl.
Thursday, February 4, 2016
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
Browns Shallow Analysis Corrections: Shallow Waters Run Deep.
Joe Gilbert is one of my favorite sources, and knows more about football than I do. But after reading this analyisis of the Browns' running back situation, for the first time I have to disagree.
What he said about Duke Johnson was pretty accurate, except it didn't seem to me that he danced around any more than necessary.
This dovetails into his comments about Isaiah Crowell. Joe thought he failed to see running lanes. I, too, failed to see running lanes. That's because there weren't any.
I'm sure that over the course of all their carries, Joe indeed saw some incidents to prompt his criticisms of both players. I simply contend that there weren't that many of them.
As I've repeated a thousand times, the Browns didn't have big receivers to help in blocking. Doug Dieken questioned changes to the blocking scheme, which produced far better results under Kyle Shanahan. I myself complained loud and long at the predictability of running only to the weak side for most of the season.
Joe himself acknowledged the improvements in the running game (especially Crowell) during the last quarter of the season. I want to point out that they were now running to both sides of the field (coincidence? I think not).
Joe suggested getting the ball to Duke more. Ok.
He suggested sticking to the run more. Wrong. Well okay, as Hue knows better than most, you really need to establish the run and have a balanced attack. So I guess Joe isn't wrong.
What's wrong is that the Vikings can't keep handing off to Adrian Peterson when they're two touchdowns behind with eight minutes left, and it's bad math to hand off on second or third and eight at any time.
I defer to Joe in matters x and o, but not on statistics. Joe cited season-long statistics to illustrate the Browns inefficiency running the ball in the same article in which he cited the late season improvement.
The most effective predictor of the future are those four most recent games. Neither running back improved during that span. The playcalling and the blocking did.
And now that I've checked it out some more, Terrelle Pryor's blocking helped more than a little.
Joe doesn't hate Crowell, but feels he's too inconsistent. I contend that Crowell is very consistent at running through holes, and also at getting stopped by human walls. Joe thinks the Browns could use a bell cow running back. I contend they have one.
But Joe is really smart, and I've learned a lot from him. Anybody who wants to learn about football should check him out on WFNY.
I don't include links to really bad articles (you're welcome), but I just read a top 100 dumbest (trust me that's really high).
The article, which shall remain shameless, discussed what the Browns might do about quarterback. It wasn't really stupid. Just thoughtless.
Even mentioning Sam Bradford's name in this context is dumb, but listing him as a viable option is worse. Bradford is a good quarterback who is getting old and is injured more often than not. He collected tens of millions of dollars for hanging around for most of his career, refusing to renegotiate his massively overinflated contract for the sake of his team mates and team. He refused to even consider coming to Cleveland. His agent recently said he expects to get paid TWENTY FOUR MILLION A YEAR by his next team.
The article then lists Brock Osweiler. Now I'd love that myself. That is a really good quarterback.
The writer thinks it all depends on Peyton Manning. If Manning decides not to retire, then John Elway will get rid of Brock.
A Superbowl team with an ancient, banged up quarterback will get rid of his heir apparent? This is so dumb on so many levels: Even if Elway is the poster boy for the concussion protocol what would he then need most?
A quarterback. Jeez...
The article lists Kirk Cousins. I like Cousins too, but so do the REDSKINS.
Colin Kaepernick. After all, Hue Jackson wanted to draft him once.
Who just took over the Niners? Chip Kelly. What kind of quarterback makes his read-option system viable in the NFL (theme from "Jeapordy" playing...).
Robert Griffin III. That one isn't really dumb. The book on this guy shouldn't be closed yet. All the same, it's a long shot. He's had his chances, and can't overcome all of his limitations.
Smith, Glennon, Sanchez and Mettenberger? Of all these guys, Glennon is actually the most interesting. He has quietly become a pretty good quarterback (83.-something rating). But he's under 58% completions and best as a vertical passer; not a good fit.
The writer shows a glimmer of intelligence by suggesting that Goff would be the best draft option, then extinguishes it by saying he read somewhere that the Browns like Wentz better.
Well, Goff wasn't at the Senior Bowl.
The article concludes that since drafting a quarterback not named Luck that high is risky, the Browns might take the safer route with one of the aforementioned veteran options.
Jeez. Aside from Osweiler, none of these guys (except conceivably RG3) can be a franchise quarterback. The Browns will NOT draft in this rarified air again for the foreseeable future.
How can they not draft a guy with that potential? Know what poker players call guys like this writer? ATMs.
Rang lists Goff tenth overall and Wentz fifteenth. I guess that means the Browns need to trade down to tenth or fifteenth and then draft one of them, right?
Wow.
A couple more draft targets: ILB Kentrell Brothers led college football in tackles and did well during Senior Bowl week. He's not a great athlete but has great instincts. He's 6'1", 245. A couple interceptions and 14 tackles for losses. He's a complete linebacker, not unlike DQwell Jackson, except he's a little bigger. He can stack and shed.
The knock on him is that he has short arms, which I find amusing. They say that because of his short arms, he sometimes needs help tackling.......
He's projected to go in the second round, but with such a severe handicap (snicker) he could slide to the third.
Leland Miller is a 6', 180 lb. press/man cornerback who Ray Horton would want because he's very willing and able to tackle running backs. He also did well at the Senior Bowl, and could well last well into the fourth round.
He needs to get bigger, of course, but doesn't need a lot of refinement; could be a fifth cornerback right away, and a special teamer. They say he gets too aggressive at times, but other than that and his weight, I can't find anything wrong with him. I guess there's just a lot of cornerbacks in this draft, and nobody wants to wait for a guy to gain ten lousy pounds.
What he said about Duke Johnson was pretty accurate, except it didn't seem to me that he danced around any more than necessary.
This dovetails into his comments about Isaiah Crowell. Joe thought he failed to see running lanes. I, too, failed to see running lanes. That's because there weren't any.
I'm sure that over the course of all their carries, Joe indeed saw some incidents to prompt his criticisms of both players. I simply contend that there weren't that many of them.
As I've repeated a thousand times, the Browns didn't have big receivers to help in blocking. Doug Dieken questioned changes to the blocking scheme, which produced far better results under Kyle Shanahan. I myself complained loud and long at the predictability of running only to the weak side for most of the season.
Joe himself acknowledged the improvements in the running game (especially Crowell) during the last quarter of the season. I want to point out that they were now running to both sides of the field (coincidence? I think not).
Joe suggested getting the ball to Duke more. Ok.
He suggested sticking to the run more. Wrong. Well okay, as Hue knows better than most, you really need to establish the run and have a balanced attack. So I guess Joe isn't wrong.
What's wrong is that the Vikings can't keep handing off to Adrian Peterson when they're two touchdowns behind with eight minutes left, and it's bad math to hand off on second or third and eight at any time.
I defer to Joe in matters x and o, but not on statistics. Joe cited season-long statistics to illustrate the Browns inefficiency running the ball in the same article in which he cited the late season improvement.
The most effective predictor of the future are those four most recent games. Neither running back improved during that span. The playcalling and the blocking did.
And now that I've checked it out some more, Terrelle Pryor's blocking helped more than a little.
Joe doesn't hate Crowell, but feels he's too inconsistent. I contend that Crowell is very consistent at running through holes, and also at getting stopped by human walls. Joe thinks the Browns could use a bell cow running back. I contend they have one.
But Joe is really smart, and I've learned a lot from him. Anybody who wants to learn about football should check him out on WFNY.
I don't include links to really bad articles (you're welcome), but I just read a top 100 dumbest (trust me that's really high).
The article, which shall remain shameless, discussed what the Browns might do about quarterback. It wasn't really stupid. Just thoughtless.
Even mentioning Sam Bradford's name in this context is dumb, but listing him as a viable option is worse. Bradford is a good quarterback who is getting old and is injured more often than not. He collected tens of millions of dollars for hanging around for most of his career, refusing to renegotiate his massively overinflated contract for the sake of his team mates and team. He refused to even consider coming to Cleveland. His agent recently said he expects to get paid TWENTY FOUR MILLION A YEAR by his next team.
The article then lists Brock Osweiler. Now I'd love that myself. That is a really good quarterback.
The writer thinks it all depends on Peyton Manning. If Manning decides not to retire, then John Elway will get rid of Brock.
A Superbowl team with an ancient, banged up quarterback will get rid of his heir apparent? This is so dumb on so many levels: Even if Elway is the poster boy for the concussion protocol what would he then need most?
A quarterback. Jeez...
The article lists Kirk Cousins. I like Cousins too, but so do the REDSKINS.
Colin Kaepernick. After all, Hue Jackson wanted to draft him once.
Who just took over the Niners? Chip Kelly. What kind of quarterback makes his read-option system viable in the NFL (theme from "Jeapordy" playing...).
Robert Griffin III. That one isn't really dumb. The book on this guy shouldn't be closed yet. All the same, it's a long shot. He's had his chances, and can't overcome all of his limitations.
Smith, Glennon, Sanchez and Mettenberger? Of all these guys, Glennon is actually the most interesting. He has quietly become a pretty good quarterback (83.-something rating). But he's under 58% completions and best as a vertical passer; not a good fit.
The writer shows a glimmer of intelligence by suggesting that Goff would be the best draft option, then extinguishes it by saying he read somewhere that the Browns like Wentz better.
Well, Goff wasn't at the Senior Bowl.
The article concludes that since drafting a quarterback not named Luck that high is risky, the Browns might take the safer route with one of the aforementioned veteran options.
Jeez. Aside from Osweiler, none of these guys (except conceivably RG3) can be a franchise quarterback. The Browns will NOT draft in this rarified air again for the foreseeable future.
How can they not draft a guy with that potential? Know what poker players call guys like this writer? ATMs.
Rang lists Goff tenth overall and Wentz fifteenth. I guess that means the Browns need to trade down to tenth or fifteenth and then draft one of them, right?
Wow.
A couple more draft targets: ILB Kentrell Brothers led college football in tackles and did well during Senior Bowl week. He's not a great athlete but has great instincts. He's 6'1", 245. A couple interceptions and 14 tackles for losses. He's a complete linebacker, not unlike DQwell Jackson, except he's a little bigger. He can stack and shed.
The knock on him is that he has short arms, which I find amusing. They say that because of his short arms, he sometimes needs help tackling.......
He's projected to go in the second round, but with such a severe handicap (snicker) he could slide to the third.
Leland Miller is a 6', 180 lb. press/man cornerback who Ray Horton would want because he's very willing and able to tackle running backs. He also did well at the Senior Bowl, and could well last well into the fourth round.
He needs to get bigger, of course, but doesn't need a lot of refinement; could be a fifth cornerback right away, and a special teamer. They say he gets too aggressive at times, but other than that and his weight, I can't find anything wrong with him. I guess there's just a lot of cornerbacks in this draft, and nobody wants to wait for a guy to gain ten lousy pounds.
Tuesday, February 2, 2016
More on Browns Draft
To set the scene, the Browns took care of most of their real team needs when they hired Hue Jackson and his assistants. The real need is franchise quarterback (and they already have good hold-the-fort guys.)
Naturally, the team is imperfect, and could use upgrades everywhere. My own estimation of the talent in the nursery, and that which was handcuffed by Mike Frankenstein's Rubics Cube defense, is guesswork, along with what Ray Horton can get out of it.
So there are lots of question marks on that side of the ball, along with question marks about Gordon, Pryor, Mack, and Schwartze on the other side.
Age and depth matter, so they'll note guys like Whitner, Dansby, Barnidge, Thomas, Mack etc. whether they stay or not, because they need to stock the shelves behind them, and provide insurance.
This makes the top three priorities beyond quarterback offensive line, tight end, and inside linebacker. Since "passrusher" is unsettled, we'll include that there.
You will note that I didn't include wide receiver. Good.
But after taking (preferably) Goff or Wentz at number two, the Browns could well go best available player, using scheme and position priority as tie-breakers.
So I did more digging, checking out multiple (reputable) post-Senior Bowl mock drafts, and Rang's Big Board rankings to guess what might happen, and who could fall to the Browns at 34 overall.
The consensus has Noah Spence and three more elite linebackers, all of which I loved, going in the top twenty. Rang and Brugler both had the Broncos drafting Hunter Henry, the best tight end, at the end of the first round.
The good news is that nobody expected Braxton Miller to go in the first round. I stopped looking right there. If Miller is there at 33, they've either got to take him, or a boatload of draft picks if they don't.
Many of you have seen Miller in action, so you know. What's been said about him has diminished his stock below more experienced receivers, but his talent and upside are undeniable.
And the experience stuff is, as usual, all out of proportion with reality. I've even heard some people wondering if this 6'1" 208 lb. slot receiver can play outside! Benjamin can. Hawkins can. Who asks these questions?
Miller has translated the routes he memorized as a quarterback and been putting them into practice. He's still making mistakes as he grasps the nuances of that route tree and press coverage. He might indeed be a year away from making it seem natural to him. But he can most certainly make a big impact immediately in the slot, out if the backfield, as a returner, and on select routes.
I still believe that both Josh Gordon and Terrelle Pryor will be significant contributors in 2016. If I'm right, this crew would be truly frightening. If I'm wrong, it would still be pretty good.
My mock draft right now optimistically says Goff first and more realistically Miller second.
Picking in the third round gets nebulous. Diondre Hall is a 6'2" 205 lb. small college corner who can run with anybody but needs work. There are pretty good guards and right tackles (even eventual left tackles) who could compete to start right away. Really good nickel linebackers and good safeties (sometimes the same people).
This even carries over into the top of the fourth round; if these NEW GUYS pick well, they have a good chance of getting a quality backup or starter there; notably on the offensive line.
Where it gets more interesting is if Ray Farmer's compensatory picks materialize at the end of this round, giving them a cluster of four picks, the last of which will be at the top of the fifth round.
This is a lot of picks, so they might try to peddle that fifth rounder and the sixth and seventh to in order to move up or get higher picks next year.
What could they get at the bottom of the fourth round and lower?
I looked around for other people's sleepers, just to get some names to look into.
I've already mentioned Senior Bowl tight end Jerrell Adams. Another tall cornerback is Micheal Jordon (better in zone than man, possible safety).
Small college outside linebacker Victor Ochi 6'2" 254 was a big fish in a small pond, but he's a sack machine and a complete player. (Actually he played defensive end, but stood up a lot and moved around sometimes).
Quarterback Jason Vander Laan is 6'4" 244. He ran for almost five thousand yards. He's probably not an NFL quarterback. If he ever could be, he's a couple years away. But he's just a real football player who could play H-back or tight end (if he can catch) in the NFL. A bit of a project, of course, but he could help on special teams.
Bryce Williams is another tight end.
At least one or two of these guys will go undrafted. Half, or even most of them might be stocking shelves in 2017.
The way it looks, the Browns could get a potential franchise quarterback, a stud wide receiver, a Barnidge heir apparent, and at least one starting caliber offensive lineman out of this first draft of the new regime. The rest is a crapshoot, but they can be sure to upgrade special teams.
There doesn't look like much help at linebacker in this draft, and I'd expect Sashi to chase other teams' free agents trying to compensate.
Barring that, the defense in general might not get upgraded much in this draft, but the offense should be pretty loaded and deep.
Or I could be full of it.
But one thing I don't think they will do: Rent old guys for one season.
This isn't major reconstruction like Haslam said to reassure potential Head Coaches and forestall midseason lynch mobs. You don't do that with a very young and TALENTED team.
At the same time, it's not realistic to expect to knock off the Steelers and Bengals in one season.
Geezers need not apply. Come back in 2017.
Naturally, the team is imperfect, and could use upgrades everywhere. My own estimation of the talent in the nursery, and that which was handcuffed by Mike Frankenstein's Rubics Cube defense, is guesswork, along with what Ray Horton can get out of it.
So there are lots of question marks on that side of the ball, along with question marks about Gordon, Pryor, Mack, and Schwartze on the other side.
Age and depth matter, so they'll note guys like Whitner, Dansby, Barnidge, Thomas, Mack etc. whether they stay or not, because they need to stock the shelves behind them, and provide insurance.
This makes the top three priorities beyond quarterback offensive line, tight end, and inside linebacker. Since "passrusher" is unsettled, we'll include that there.
You will note that I didn't include wide receiver. Good.
But after taking (preferably) Goff or Wentz at number two, the Browns could well go best available player, using scheme and position priority as tie-breakers.
So I did more digging, checking out multiple (reputable) post-Senior Bowl mock drafts, and Rang's Big Board rankings to guess what might happen, and who could fall to the Browns at 34 overall.
The consensus has Noah Spence and three more elite linebackers, all of which I loved, going in the top twenty. Rang and Brugler both had the Broncos drafting Hunter Henry, the best tight end, at the end of the first round.
The good news is that nobody expected Braxton Miller to go in the first round. I stopped looking right there. If Miller is there at 33, they've either got to take him, or a boatload of draft picks if they don't.
Many of you have seen Miller in action, so you know. What's been said about him has diminished his stock below more experienced receivers, but his talent and upside are undeniable.
And the experience stuff is, as usual, all out of proportion with reality. I've even heard some people wondering if this 6'1" 208 lb. slot receiver can play outside! Benjamin can. Hawkins can. Who asks these questions?
Miller has translated the routes he memorized as a quarterback and been putting them into practice. He's still making mistakes as he grasps the nuances of that route tree and press coverage. He might indeed be a year away from making it seem natural to him. But he can most certainly make a big impact immediately in the slot, out if the backfield, as a returner, and on select routes.
I still believe that both Josh Gordon and Terrelle Pryor will be significant contributors in 2016. If I'm right, this crew would be truly frightening. If I'm wrong, it would still be pretty good.
My mock draft right now optimistically says Goff first and more realistically Miller second.
Picking in the third round gets nebulous. Diondre Hall is a 6'2" 205 lb. small college corner who can run with anybody but needs work. There are pretty good guards and right tackles (even eventual left tackles) who could compete to start right away. Really good nickel linebackers and good safeties (sometimes the same people).
This even carries over into the top of the fourth round; if these NEW GUYS pick well, they have a good chance of getting a quality backup or starter there; notably on the offensive line.
Where it gets more interesting is if Ray Farmer's compensatory picks materialize at the end of this round, giving them a cluster of four picks, the last of which will be at the top of the fifth round.
This is a lot of picks, so they might try to peddle that fifth rounder and the sixth and seventh to in order to move up or get higher picks next year.
What could they get at the bottom of the fourth round and lower?
I looked around for other people's sleepers, just to get some names to look into.
I've already mentioned Senior Bowl tight end Jerrell Adams. Another tall cornerback is Micheal Jordon (better in zone than man, possible safety).
Small college outside linebacker Victor Ochi 6'2" 254 was a big fish in a small pond, but he's a sack machine and a complete player. (Actually he played defensive end, but stood up a lot and moved around sometimes).
Quarterback Jason Vander Laan is 6'4" 244. He ran for almost five thousand yards. He's probably not an NFL quarterback. If he ever could be, he's a couple years away. But he's just a real football player who could play H-back or tight end (if he can catch) in the NFL. A bit of a project, of course, but he could help on special teams.
Bryce Williams is another tight end.
At least one or two of these guys will go undrafted. Half, or even most of them might be stocking shelves in 2017.
The way it looks, the Browns could get a potential franchise quarterback, a stud wide receiver, a Barnidge heir apparent, and at least one starting caliber offensive lineman out of this first draft of the new regime. The rest is a crapshoot, but they can be sure to upgrade special teams.
There doesn't look like much help at linebacker in this draft, and I'd expect Sashi to chase other teams' free agents trying to compensate.
Barring that, the defense in general might not get upgraded much in this draft, but the offense should be pretty loaded and deep.
Or I could be full of it.
But one thing I don't think they will do: Rent old guys for one season.
This isn't major reconstruction like Haslam said to reassure potential Head Coaches and forestall midseason lynch mobs. You don't do that with a very young and TALENTED team.
At the same time, it's not realistic to expect to knock off the Steelers and Bengals in one season.
Geezers need not apply. Come back in 2017.
Carson Wentz, Tony Grossi, and the Cleveland Browns
Tony Grossi is around the bend on Carson Wentz. I heard him on the radio. He said he'd paid little attention to the Senior Bowl practices, and ignored the game completely.
Tony's problem with Wentz is the small school he attended.
For most position players, level of competition means a lot. I would guess that in any year, small school players other than quarterbacks in the NFL are under 10%.
But at no other position does the level of competition mean less, which is why starting quarterbacks from small colleges sometimes top 25% in the NFL.
The most famous small college quarterbacks include two from our very own Division in Joe Flacco and Ben Roethsenberger. Historically, they include Rich Gannon, Phil Simms, Johnny Unitas, Terry Bradshaw, Ron Jaworski, Ken O'Brien, Dave Krieg, Neil Lomax, Steve McNair, and Doug Williams.
This isn't the first time Tony has been full of beans about quarterbacks. He also says that AFC North quarterbacks have to be big and strong to cut through the wind. Frank Ryan Bill Nelson Brian Sipe. I might as well mention Doug Flutie, Jim McMahon, and Teddy Bridgewater while we're in the frozen north.
I like Tony, but he's like the majority of Head Coaches and General Managers. Once they've got some notion in their heads, no amount of contrary evidence will turn them.
If Tony read this blog entry today, he'd be blurting out yabuts. I don't know what exactly he'd say; just that it would start with "Yeah but".
At the risk of redundancy here, quarterback is a different position. All the other players except running backs are physically confronting their counterparts. A quarterback faces an entire defense. The level of competition is higher or lower on both sides of the ball. He still has to read blitzes, track and hit receivers, scramble, and everything else.
His team is overmatched often, and he has to overcome superior defenses.
The important thing is that he is the eye of the hurricane. So what if it's a tornado instead?
Tony's first yabut would probably refer to the speed of the game, and tighter passing windows. He's right about that, since NFL passrushers will tend to reach him faster, and NFL cornerbacks cover tighter.
Carson Wentz won two National Championships. Tony would say big deal, look who he beat. It can't just mean less for Tony. Like Senior Bowl week, it has to mean nothing.
I've seen limited highlights on Wentz, and as I've pointed out before, on at least four out of five of those throws, his receivers were covered, and his window was microscopic.
These were NFL throws that take guts and accuracy. The nature of these completions tell NFL scouts a lot. A lot more than Tony Grossi has decided not to consider.
This is why all those NFL scouts were at the Senior Bowl. This is why Carson Wentz is Mike Mayock's top quarterback.
But Tony says "please stop it! We're talking about a division 1aa quarterback here!"
Well, live and learn nothing.
Tony's problem with Wentz is the small school he attended.
For most position players, level of competition means a lot. I would guess that in any year, small school players other than quarterbacks in the NFL are under 10%.
But at no other position does the level of competition mean less, which is why starting quarterbacks from small colleges sometimes top 25% in the NFL.
The most famous small college quarterbacks include two from our very own Division in Joe Flacco and Ben Roethsenberger. Historically, they include Rich Gannon, Phil Simms, Johnny Unitas, Terry Bradshaw, Ron Jaworski, Ken O'Brien, Dave Krieg, Neil Lomax, Steve McNair, and Doug Williams.
This isn't the first time Tony has been full of beans about quarterbacks. He also says that AFC North quarterbacks have to be big and strong to cut through the wind. Frank Ryan Bill Nelson Brian Sipe. I might as well mention Doug Flutie, Jim McMahon, and Teddy Bridgewater while we're in the frozen north.
I like Tony, but he's like the majority of Head Coaches and General Managers. Once they've got some notion in their heads, no amount of contrary evidence will turn them.
If Tony read this blog entry today, he'd be blurting out yabuts. I don't know what exactly he'd say; just that it would start with "Yeah but".
At the risk of redundancy here, quarterback is a different position. All the other players except running backs are physically confronting their counterparts. A quarterback faces an entire defense. The level of competition is higher or lower on both sides of the ball. He still has to read blitzes, track and hit receivers, scramble, and everything else.
His team is overmatched often, and he has to overcome superior defenses.
The important thing is that he is the eye of the hurricane. So what if it's a tornado instead?
Tony's first yabut would probably refer to the speed of the game, and tighter passing windows. He's right about that, since NFL passrushers will tend to reach him faster, and NFL cornerbacks cover tighter.
Carson Wentz won two National Championships. Tony would say big deal, look who he beat. It can't just mean less for Tony. Like Senior Bowl week, it has to mean nothing.
I've seen limited highlights on Wentz, and as I've pointed out before, on at least four out of five of those throws, his receivers were covered, and his window was microscopic.
These were NFL throws that take guts and accuracy. The nature of these completions tell NFL scouts a lot. A lot more than Tony Grossi has decided not to consider.
This is why all those NFL scouts were at the Senior Bowl. This is why Carson Wentz is Mike Mayock's top quarterback.
But Tony says "please stop it! We're talking about a division 1aa quarterback here!"
Well, live and learn nothing.
More Free Agents
Another reason for a Cap guy being in charge of the final roster: The Miami Dolphins and Ndamukong Suh.
Suh was arguably the best (as well as most vicious and dirtiest) defensive tackle in football. So the Dolphins decided to pay him 114 million over six years. This is more than some teams pay their starting quarterback on his second contract. One year later, they're "considering" trying to persuade Suh to restructure his contract.
It's the main reason why the Dolphins are in the hole on their salary cap.
The Dolphins free agents include Lamar Miller and Rishard Matthews.
Many will say the Browns should pursue Miller, but contrary to popular delusion, running back is not a priority here.
The real plum here could be defensive end Olivier Vernon. He had 7.5 sacks, 41 tackles, and 18 tackles for loss.
Coming out for the draft, Vernon was actually expected to become a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL. That's because he was 6'2" (261 lbs).
Naturally, Vernon would do a lot of standing up for Ray Horton. His coverage ability is a question mark, but he has all the other requisite skills.
Vernon should be a contested target, and will get pretty expensive on the open market. The Browns will need to do some projections on him.
He's just completed his rookie deal, and had 18 sacks in his first two seasons, so as a defensive end, he's proven able to take on and defeat offensive linemen. He can put his hand on the ground when needed. Playing more in space could help him out.
The Dolphins could franchise tag him, but Cameron Wake is another possibility, plus they have to pay whoever they franchise.
One article I read from the Miami press must have been written by Ray O Sunshine's cousin. It was great that Dolphins management would consider allowing Suh to restructure, and the franchise tag doesn't count against the cap right?
Ravens guard Kalechi Osemeli will probably be a priority for the Wizard, but Ozzie is short on ammo. Here is another bulldozer not ideal for a zone scheme, but in his case an exception could be made, because he's just that good.
He was a tackle in college and is 6'5" (333). He could play right tackle here. At right tackle, he could handle the zone stuff more easily. Losing him would really hurt the Ravens.
The Ravens also have Chris Givens, Courtney Upshaw, and other important younger players to think about. I like Upshaw, but he's another Solomon sans the pass rush. Givens is a deep threat only, and here on Earth, the Browns don't need wide receivers.
As DePodesta and company dig into the numbers, atop the problem tree from 2015 they'll find lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which is related to lack of penetration/disruption (the latter contributing heavily to the running yards they coughed up). Right up there with these are missed tackles.
Ray Horton isn't the ideal guy to fix this, as his own players have been guilty of poor tackling as well.
The surface scan will reveal this much, and that's as far as even smart analysts like Terry Pluto will take it. But the new Browns staff, including the coaches, will dig deeper, to see what scheme and playcalling had to do with it.
This gets into the numbers of three, four, and five man pressures at various downs and distances. Then into individual players:
How often did Paul Kruger cover, rather than attack? Did any players move around and take different gaps and angles? And much, much deeper stuff, including why a given player got to his gap late.
The Browns bosses are doing this now, in order to most accurately evaluate the players they have on the roster already. They'll get different answers than Jimmy Johnson and most fans. There are several passrushers and penetrators here now.
The missed tackles are an epidemic in the NFL since the new players contract. Ray Horton's defenses are as guilty of it as anyone else's.
But look at teams like the Steelers and Patriots. They prove it can be done. I sure hope the Browns Front office looks at what these teams do differently, and copies them.
Maybe the Browns should hire a tackling coach! Since teams are rarely allowed to actually tackle in practice, maybe they should make big dummies and tackle them!
Doesn't it drive you crazy? I turned on Mike Pettine at the end, but when a player is in position, then just drips or bounces off a ball carrier, that's on the player.
This is a big reason why Ray Horton's defenses rank high in most categories, but low in scoring. So often, it was that one player not making that one tackle.
I've tried to keep this a Johnny free zone, but Terry Pluto's latest article wasn't so hot.
He used Johnny's season long stats to compare him to Josh McCown without context. His last three starts were vs the Steelers, Seahawks, and Chiefs. The Chiefs game was played in a minor hurricane, and the Seahawks and Chiefs had elite defenses. The Bengals had an elite defense. He started three games against playoff teams. And Terry was comparing basically a rookie to a seasoned veteran.
Ok, so he's a goner and a punk, but a talented punk. Jeez, Terry, quit hanging out with Tom Reed.
Suh was arguably the best (as well as most vicious and dirtiest) defensive tackle in football. So the Dolphins decided to pay him 114 million over six years. This is more than some teams pay their starting quarterback on his second contract. One year later, they're "considering" trying to persuade Suh to restructure his contract.
It's the main reason why the Dolphins are in the hole on their salary cap.
The Dolphins free agents include Lamar Miller and Rishard Matthews.
Many will say the Browns should pursue Miller, but contrary to popular delusion, running back is not a priority here.
The real plum here could be defensive end Olivier Vernon. He had 7.5 sacks, 41 tackles, and 18 tackles for loss.
Coming out for the draft, Vernon was actually expected to become a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL. That's because he was 6'2" (261 lbs).
Naturally, Vernon would do a lot of standing up for Ray Horton. His coverage ability is a question mark, but he has all the other requisite skills.
Vernon should be a contested target, and will get pretty expensive on the open market. The Browns will need to do some projections on him.
He's just completed his rookie deal, and had 18 sacks in his first two seasons, so as a defensive end, he's proven able to take on and defeat offensive linemen. He can put his hand on the ground when needed. Playing more in space could help him out.
The Dolphins could franchise tag him, but Cameron Wake is another possibility, plus they have to pay whoever they franchise.
One article I read from the Miami press must have been written by Ray O Sunshine's cousin. It was great that Dolphins management would consider allowing Suh to restructure, and the franchise tag doesn't count against the cap right?
Ravens guard Kalechi Osemeli will probably be a priority for the Wizard, but Ozzie is short on ammo. Here is another bulldozer not ideal for a zone scheme, but in his case an exception could be made, because he's just that good.
He was a tackle in college and is 6'5" (333). He could play right tackle here. At right tackle, he could handle the zone stuff more easily. Losing him would really hurt the Ravens.
The Ravens also have Chris Givens, Courtney Upshaw, and other important younger players to think about. I like Upshaw, but he's another Solomon sans the pass rush. Givens is a deep threat only, and here on Earth, the Browns don't need wide receivers.
As DePodesta and company dig into the numbers, atop the problem tree from 2015 they'll find lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which is related to lack of penetration/disruption (the latter contributing heavily to the running yards they coughed up). Right up there with these are missed tackles.
Ray Horton isn't the ideal guy to fix this, as his own players have been guilty of poor tackling as well.
The surface scan will reveal this much, and that's as far as even smart analysts like Terry Pluto will take it. But the new Browns staff, including the coaches, will dig deeper, to see what scheme and playcalling had to do with it.
This gets into the numbers of three, four, and five man pressures at various downs and distances. Then into individual players:
How often did Paul Kruger cover, rather than attack? Did any players move around and take different gaps and angles? And much, much deeper stuff, including why a given player got to his gap late.
The Browns bosses are doing this now, in order to most accurately evaluate the players they have on the roster already. They'll get different answers than Jimmy Johnson and most fans. There are several passrushers and penetrators here now.
The missed tackles are an epidemic in the NFL since the new players contract. Ray Horton's defenses are as guilty of it as anyone else's.
But look at teams like the Steelers and Patriots. They prove it can be done. I sure hope the Browns Front office looks at what these teams do differently, and copies them.
Maybe the Browns should hire a tackling coach! Since teams are rarely allowed to actually tackle in practice, maybe they should make big dummies and tackle them!
Doesn't it drive you crazy? I turned on Mike Pettine at the end, but when a player is in position, then just drips or bounces off a ball carrier, that's on the player.
This is a big reason why Ray Horton's defenses rank high in most categories, but low in scoring. So often, it was that one player not making that one tackle.
I've tried to keep this a Johnny free zone, but Terry Pluto's latest article wasn't so hot.
He used Johnny's season long stats to compare him to Josh McCown without context. His last three starts were vs the Steelers, Seahawks, and Chiefs. The Chiefs game was played in a minor hurricane, and the Seahawks and Chiefs had elite defenses. The Bengals had an elite defense. He started three games against playoff teams. And Terry was comparing basically a rookie to a seasoned veteran.
Ok, so he's a goner and a punk, but a talented punk. Jeez, Terry, quit hanging out with Tom Reed.
Monday, February 1, 2016
McCown, Goff, Wentz, Reed, Grossi, Pierre-Paul, Browns
Tom Reed wrote this article asserting that Josh McCown should stay on the Browns roster in 2016. Honestly, it had never occurred to me that he wouldn't. The notion of the Browns cutting him was literally unthinkable.
But now that Tom mentions it, I'm scared. He's right: This is a whole new Head Coach and staff. A new VP of personnel. How can we be sure?
Tom is right. The vast majority of us fans are right. All those losses had nothing to do with Josh McCown. I'm not sure any other quarterback could have done more with the mess he was handed.
He's a built-in quarterback coach. Tony Grossi suggested that the Browns should have two quarterback coaches: one for the starter, and another whose sole job is to develop the other guys. McCown was that guy last season. Even when he was the starter, he was that guy.
Cutting Josh McCown would be sheer idiocy. Did you hear Alex Mack...who might leave...talk about how tough he was, and how they all admired him? Well, if you think cutting McCown would piss the fans off, why don't you survey your unrestricted free agents?
If I'm Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartze, or even Joe Thomas, and I hear they released Josh McCown, I'm on the phone with the other guys, and we're saying "Did you hear what those idiots just did?"
Well, it's just unthinkable. No way.
I heard Grossi on with Rizzo. Tony thinks Goff is better than Wentz. I agree, but Tony made it sound like there's a big gap between them. There's not.
Still, Tony is right: Goff has the Kosarian brain. That's hard to find. It's much more important than an ability to run around, or twenty more pounds, or a slightly stronger arm.
But listen to Mayock and the coaches: Wentz has the mental hardware to function in the NFL. Tony seems to think Senior Bowl week never happened, and running a pro style offense is irrelevant.
Neither of these guys is a ten (right now), but if Goff is an 8.5, Wentz is an 8.
Pierre-Paul: I hope the Browns pay extra attention to this guy in free agency.
He wore his club because he has scar tissue on his hand. It's inflexible, and susceptible to tearing. He is now undergoing skin grafts which will restore mobility so that he can use his palm.
He has two intact fingers. These will become stronger than normal. He'll never be able to grip the way he used to, but after the grafts, he will have the thumb and two fingers.
A sort of immobile prosthesis can be taped to the back of his hand: Two flexible, permanently hooked fake fingers. As long as they're not sharp or otherwise dangerous, they can be allowed.
Now he's still not the same as he was, but he has the two real fingers and the two fakes which, with practice, he can use like part of his body.
Currently, Jason is seen as a situational passrusher who can't tackle. That's correct. But it's more because his remaining fingers were all but immobilized as part of that massive club, and he couldn't bend his wrist.
I kind of think Paul DePodesta, if nobody else, will take a closer look at this. Most likely, it's already planned, and his agent will be pointing it out to potential suitors. But they will pretend not to believe it so they can lowball him.
Bidding is bidding, of course. The people predicting six mil/year for this guy are pundits and not even real analysts.
Thankfully, Jerry Jones has handed over the reigns to his sane son, so it shouldn't get too ridiculous. Pierre-Paul could command over 7.5 mil/year (over 6 mil guaranteed) with a bunch of incentives which he can meet.
He can be an every-down player again. Not so much in his current 4-3, but in a 3-4 in which he's not engaged with an offensive lineman on every snap.
Coming out of college, Jason was widely projected as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He moves fluidly, and has the speed.
Most defensive ends hate the idea of playing linebacker, but you can expect Pierre-Paul's attitude to be a little different.
3-4 outside linebackers must sometimes drop into coverage, but it's zone coverage in which his handicap is irrelevant. With the skin grafts and prosthesis, he could even make interceptions on lobs or deflections.
He would of course still have to take on and shed blockers, but more often tight ends, and more often in space, where he has the advantage. He'd still be doing his main thing (passrushing) most of the time, but as an outside linebacker can dictate how he is blocked by where he lines up, and can generate momentum before contact.
If the Browns can get a Jason Pierre Paul who is 75% effective with one hand, they should. You want a passrusher? There he is.
I won't bother correcting yet another MM who lists wide receiver among the Browns offensive needs, but do need to say this:
Josh Gordon isn't the only likely receiver who is over 6' tall. I guess you forgot Hartline when he got hurt. And Pryor is a why-not signing. Sashi will bring him back from the corn field, even if you don't.
Wow.
But now that Tom mentions it, I'm scared. He's right: This is a whole new Head Coach and staff. A new VP of personnel. How can we be sure?
Tom is right. The vast majority of us fans are right. All those losses had nothing to do with Josh McCown. I'm not sure any other quarterback could have done more with the mess he was handed.
He's a built-in quarterback coach. Tony Grossi suggested that the Browns should have two quarterback coaches: one for the starter, and another whose sole job is to develop the other guys. McCown was that guy last season. Even when he was the starter, he was that guy.
Cutting Josh McCown would be sheer idiocy. Did you hear Alex Mack...who might leave...talk about how tough he was, and how they all admired him? Well, if you think cutting McCown would piss the fans off, why don't you survey your unrestricted free agents?
If I'm Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartze, or even Joe Thomas, and I hear they released Josh McCown, I'm on the phone with the other guys, and we're saying "Did you hear what those idiots just did?"
Well, it's just unthinkable. No way.
I heard Grossi on with Rizzo. Tony thinks Goff is better than Wentz. I agree, but Tony made it sound like there's a big gap between them. There's not.
Still, Tony is right: Goff has the Kosarian brain. That's hard to find. It's much more important than an ability to run around, or twenty more pounds, or a slightly stronger arm.
But listen to Mayock and the coaches: Wentz has the mental hardware to function in the NFL. Tony seems to think Senior Bowl week never happened, and running a pro style offense is irrelevant.
Neither of these guys is a ten (right now), but if Goff is an 8.5, Wentz is an 8.
Pierre-Paul: I hope the Browns pay extra attention to this guy in free agency.
He wore his club because he has scar tissue on his hand. It's inflexible, and susceptible to tearing. He is now undergoing skin grafts which will restore mobility so that he can use his palm.
He has two intact fingers. These will become stronger than normal. He'll never be able to grip the way he used to, but after the grafts, he will have the thumb and two fingers.
A sort of immobile prosthesis can be taped to the back of his hand: Two flexible, permanently hooked fake fingers. As long as they're not sharp or otherwise dangerous, they can be allowed.
Now he's still not the same as he was, but he has the two real fingers and the two fakes which, with practice, he can use like part of his body.
Currently, Jason is seen as a situational passrusher who can't tackle. That's correct. But it's more because his remaining fingers were all but immobilized as part of that massive club, and he couldn't bend his wrist.
I kind of think Paul DePodesta, if nobody else, will take a closer look at this. Most likely, it's already planned, and his agent will be pointing it out to potential suitors. But they will pretend not to believe it so they can lowball him.
Bidding is bidding, of course. The people predicting six mil/year for this guy are pundits and not even real analysts.
Thankfully, Jerry Jones has handed over the reigns to his sane son, so it shouldn't get too ridiculous. Pierre-Paul could command over 7.5 mil/year (over 6 mil guaranteed) with a bunch of incentives which he can meet.
He can be an every-down player again. Not so much in his current 4-3, but in a 3-4 in which he's not engaged with an offensive lineman on every snap.
Coming out of college, Jason was widely projected as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He moves fluidly, and has the speed.
Most defensive ends hate the idea of playing linebacker, but you can expect Pierre-Paul's attitude to be a little different.
3-4 outside linebackers must sometimes drop into coverage, but it's zone coverage in which his handicap is irrelevant. With the skin grafts and prosthesis, he could even make interceptions on lobs or deflections.
He would of course still have to take on and shed blockers, but more often tight ends, and more often in space, where he has the advantage. He'd still be doing his main thing (passrushing) most of the time, but as an outside linebacker can dictate how he is blocked by where he lines up, and can generate momentum before contact.
If the Browns can get a Jason Pierre Paul who is 75% effective with one hand, they should. You want a passrusher? There he is.
I won't bother correcting yet another MM who lists wide receiver among the Browns offensive needs, but do need to say this:
Josh Gordon isn't the only likely receiver who is over 6' tall. I guess you forgot Hartline when he got hurt. And Pryor is a why-not signing. Sashi will bring him back from the corn field, even if you don't.
Wow.
Free Agency Wars: Browns Smell Blood
The Cleveland Browns are around 33.2 million over their salary cap. The Saints, Bills, and Dolphins are in cap hell. The Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers are less than five million under.
This is why the Ravens won't come roaring back any time soon. The Wizard's wand is in the drawer, recharging. Ozzie has no choice but to clean house, and zero in on the draft almost exclusively. He hasn't renegotiated, extended, or re-signed players. He will let most of his free agents test the market, and this time everybody over 25 who can walk will walk.
This is why those who persist in predicting that the Jackson-led Browns will finish last in the Division belong on the short bus.
If Sashi Brown succeeds in retaining his own unrestricted free agents, he could take his positive balance down, maybe to 21 million. Consensus among the punditry says Alex Mack is gone, but putting Mitchell Schwartz and Gipson in the same boat is dumb.
Nor is Alex Mack a lost cause. He has had a season-ending injury, and is thirty years old. The biggest reason the Browns aren't currently 40 million under the cap now is that idiotic Dwayne Bowe contract, but after this season that money will come back.
Paying a center elite left tackle money isn't in the budget (I sure wish some of you fans were running the Bengals and Steelers), but Brown could offer Mack an extra year, with a good portion of that guaranteed, in order to compete with the dumbasses who will get ridiculous in the bidding war.
That aside, Brown will have a war chest to go raiding.
I went into vulture mode and looked things over.
Forget about most of the big names (like Von Miller). Most of those players will be franchised or otherwise retained. If I had a faster internet connection here, I'd inspect each of those teams to see who they're likely to lose in order to keep these studs, but as it is I'd still be working on that Wednesday.
Jason Pierre Paul is a possible, because of his missing fingers. He has shown that he can still rush the passer, and he's still a freak athlete. But he can't tackle as well, or fight for a turnover. It's something every team considering him will have to think about, but this is one guy who shouldn't break the bank.
The Broncos are ten million under, and Von Miller all by himself will want that and more. This makes DT Malik Jackson a potential target. He's very good.
The Bucs are loaded with cash, but just drafted a running back high. Doug Martin was a monster last season, and might be their Alex Mack. Martin will get ridiculous offers from some teams. Despite having all that spare cash lying around, the Bucs could let Martin go if the price gets too silly.
I consider it unlikely that the Browns would overpay him either, however. But I had to mention it.
Inside linebacker Danny Trevathan is another Bronco that Von Miller could squeeze out (and by the way that's even if they franchise him).
I saved the best and most likely guys for last: The Steelers left tackles, Adams and Beachum. They probably can't afford both, and Beachum is considered undersized (6'3", 303 lbs).
He suffered a serious knee injury, and the younger/cheaper Villenueva improved steadily, and did a good job in his absence.
He will be looking for elite left tackle money, and of course to play that position. But there are several left tackles in this draft, he is still pretty small, he was seriously injured, and he was replaced, so he doesn't have as much leverage as his agent is probably telling him he has.
Coming out of college, Beachum was physically weak, but quick and good in space. He's of course stronger now, but remains much better suited to zone than man blocking, which is another thing teams will be pointing out in negotiations.
Here, he probably wouldn't even start, but he's just 26 and would back up Joe Thomas, and at guard.
That would be a tough sell for a guy who's been a starting left tackle for an elite team for a long time but...hmmm...could he play center?
If Beachum remains a Steeler, he'll fight to start at left guard. The teams bidding for him know this, too.
Mike Adams is much lower hanging fruit. He has a number of starts, but was inconsistent and replaced. He is 6'7.5, 325 lbs. He was drafted in 2012, making last season his third.
Scouts were divided about him in 2012. Some saw him as a first round pick, while others called him overrated, and a guy who played well "when he feels like it".
So far, the latter group seems to be correct about him. While he was considered by some a left tackle, he's probably a right tackle. He can be effective in a zone scheme...when he feels like it.
He might be worth a super-cheap flyer.
The Cowboys are 8 million under their cap, and have several interesting free agents including CB Morris Claiborne and Greg Hardy.
The Seahawks are 19 mil plus, but have a ton of guys to sign, and some decent stuff will shake loose here. DT Mebane is one. Left tackle Russel Okung could be another. Just in case the Browns were to hypothetically think about conceivably considering the possibility of trading Joe Thomas for draft picks...
Both their starting and backup centers are two more guys.
6' tall cornerback Jeremy Lane is another guy. He has been injured, and won't command a huge salary.
I must mention this before I end this article: I read an article in which one paragraph packed in enough stupidity to fill a novel:
Drafting a quarterback will mean Josh McCown's release. Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz, and Joe Thomas are as good as gone. The Browns will pick Goff or Lynch second overall.
Wow.
This is why the Ravens won't come roaring back any time soon. The Wizard's wand is in the drawer, recharging. Ozzie has no choice but to clean house, and zero in on the draft almost exclusively. He hasn't renegotiated, extended, or re-signed players. He will let most of his free agents test the market, and this time everybody over 25 who can walk will walk.
This is why those who persist in predicting that the Jackson-led Browns will finish last in the Division belong on the short bus.
If Sashi Brown succeeds in retaining his own unrestricted free agents, he could take his positive balance down, maybe to 21 million. Consensus among the punditry says Alex Mack is gone, but putting Mitchell Schwartz and Gipson in the same boat is dumb.
Nor is Alex Mack a lost cause. He has had a season-ending injury, and is thirty years old. The biggest reason the Browns aren't currently 40 million under the cap now is that idiotic Dwayne Bowe contract, but after this season that money will come back.
Paying a center elite left tackle money isn't in the budget (I sure wish some of you fans were running the Bengals and Steelers), but Brown could offer Mack an extra year, with a good portion of that guaranteed, in order to compete with the dumbasses who will get ridiculous in the bidding war.
That aside, Brown will have a war chest to go raiding.
I went into vulture mode and looked things over.
Forget about most of the big names (like Von Miller). Most of those players will be franchised or otherwise retained. If I had a faster internet connection here, I'd inspect each of those teams to see who they're likely to lose in order to keep these studs, but as it is I'd still be working on that Wednesday.
Jason Pierre Paul is a possible, because of his missing fingers. He has shown that he can still rush the passer, and he's still a freak athlete. But he can't tackle as well, or fight for a turnover. It's something every team considering him will have to think about, but this is one guy who shouldn't break the bank.
The Broncos are ten million under, and Von Miller all by himself will want that and more. This makes DT Malik Jackson a potential target. He's very good.
The Bucs are loaded with cash, but just drafted a running back high. Doug Martin was a monster last season, and might be their Alex Mack. Martin will get ridiculous offers from some teams. Despite having all that spare cash lying around, the Bucs could let Martin go if the price gets too silly.
I consider it unlikely that the Browns would overpay him either, however. But I had to mention it.
Inside linebacker Danny Trevathan is another Bronco that Von Miller could squeeze out (and by the way that's even if they franchise him).
I saved the best and most likely guys for last: The Steelers left tackles, Adams and Beachum. They probably can't afford both, and Beachum is considered undersized (6'3", 303 lbs).
He suffered a serious knee injury, and the younger/cheaper Villenueva improved steadily, and did a good job in his absence.
He will be looking for elite left tackle money, and of course to play that position. But there are several left tackles in this draft, he is still pretty small, he was seriously injured, and he was replaced, so he doesn't have as much leverage as his agent is probably telling him he has.
Coming out of college, Beachum was physically weak, but quick and good in space. He's of course stronger now, but remains much better suited to zone than man blocking, which is another thing teams will be pointing out in negotiations.
Here, he probably wouldn't even start, but he's just 26 and would back up Joe Thomas, and at guard.
That would be a tough sell for a guy who's been a starting left tackle for an elite team for a long time but...hmmm...could he play center?
If Beachum remains a Steeler, he'll fight to start at left guard. The teams bidding for him know this, too.
Mike Adams is much lower hanging fruit. He has a number of starts, but was inconsistent and replaced. He is 6'7.5, 325 lbs. He was drafted in 2012, making last season his third.
Scouts were divided about him in 2012. Some saw him as a first round pick, while others called him overrated, and a guy who played well "when he feels like it".
So far, the latter group seems to be correct about him. While he was considered by some a left tackle, he's probably a right tackle. He can be effective in a zone scheme...when he feels like it.
He might be worth a super-cheap flyer.
The Cowboys are 8 million under their cap, and have several interesting free agents including CB Morris Claiborne and Greg Hardy.
The Seahawks are 19 mil plus, but have a ton of guys to sign, and some decent stuff will shake loose here. DT Mebane is one. Left tackle Russel Okung could be another. Just in case the Browns were to hypothetically think about conceivably considering the possibility of trading Joe Thomas for draft picks...
Both their starting and backup centers are two more guys.
6' tall cornerback Jeremy Lane is another guy. He has been injured, and won't command a huge salary.
I must mention this before I end this article: I read an article in which one paragraph packed in enough stupidity to fill a novel:
Drafting a quarterback will mean Josh McCown's release. Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz, and Joe Thomas are as good as gone. The Browns will pick Goff or Lynch second overall.
Wow.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)