Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Kevin Who? DeShone's Interment. 20/20 Behind Sight and the Browns

Once again, I have to correct myself (how embarassing):

Josh Gordon recorded his own semi-autobiographical video, detailing his very real struggles with substance abuse.

I had concluded, and told everybody, that Roger Goodell was making a mountain out of a mole hill, and that Gordon was really just a pretty normal kid.  Josh Gordon says different, so I stand corrected.

Josh also defends Roger Goodell, who he says offered him a lot of help, so I also have to take back my bashing of that guy over this, too.

But it would be idiotic to release Gordon when he is reinstated, obviously.

Now, predictably, a national nimrod is going after the Browns front office over their quarterback situation, and I won't waste your time by including the link.

I can't argue with the facts that Carson Wentz and DeShaun Watson are looking just plain awesome, or the fact that quarterback is the most critical position in football.

But how many times do I need to go over this?

1: The Wentz trade resulted in (I lost count) something like TWENTY ONE draft picks, many of which haven't even been used yet.  The value of a quarterback is really high...but not infinite. 

2: I can't knock this guy for dismissing Kevin Hogan out of hand, but to declare DeShone Kizer a bust 4.5 games into his NFL career assumes a whole lot of facts not yet in evidence.  Remember the rookie Jared Goff?  Anybody home?

Yeah yeah Paul Podesta said they didn't think Wentz could be a top twenty quarterback, and that was really stupid, and wrong too.

But if you think DePodesta is making all the picks, you need to get back on your meds.

Goober here is already talking about the Browns getting Rosen or somebody next year, as he just assumes that Kizer will just stagnate, along with the rest of the extremely young roster; that they'll be as bad in game twelve as they were in the first half of game five--how idiotic!

Don't pretend the Browns weren't inside the five yard line twice with Kizer, or that Gonzalez didn't miss two field goals.  Don't give me this "horse shoes and hand grenades" crap!  Yes, they blew it, over and over again, but the fact that they marched up and down the field and dominated statistically is not irrelevant!

How superficial!  You look at a final score and write an article about it!

Don't get me wrong:  I wanted both Wentz and Watson.  I might have made the Wentz trade, but wouldn't have passed up Watson.

But don't you remember what these same experts were saying about Watson?  Polian said he might eventually become a decent "system" quarterback in two or three years.  He was inaccurate, threw too many interceptions, was small,  had a marginal arm, shouldn't even be considered in the first round.  Remember all that?

Now some of the same people are (or will be) bashing this front office for doing exactly what they would have done!

I refuse to monday morning quarterback these moves.  I'll wait til after the 2019 season before I even look back at the 2016 draft (and undrafted free agents).  I'll bet you dollars to doughnuts it will look pretty damn good by then!

Thomas Moore used the "q" word (quagmire) in re the potential of what Hue is stepping into if (make it when please God) he switches to Kevin Hogan.

Thomas is a smart guy, and I can't pick on him much, but methinks he overthinks this.

I mean, it's obvious to all of us, and moreso to the rest of his team.  They all want to actually win games.  Is Hue Jackson running a Day Care center for baby quarterbacks, or an NFL football team here?  If he doesn't make this move, he'll have a passel of veterans lined up outside his office (some with their agents).

Thomas seems to think that if DeShone Kizer is handed a clip-board and baseball cap, that's it.  I mean, that he'll stop learning and progressing, or something.  Too many people think that.  It's wrong.

Boxing again:  You don't turn a street brawler into a boxer by putting him in the ring and letting him fight, regardless of how talented he is.

That's what we're talking about here with Kizer.  If you think he's learning a damn thing, you don't know what you're looking at.  He needs to go back to the gym, before he gets his head torn off.

The experience he has accrued...as ugly as it is...will serve him in good stead as he trains, just as Goff's ugly games served him.  This aint over by a longshot, Tom!

One thing Tom is right about is that the Browns really don't want to go into the 2018 draft not knowing more about Kizer.

What if Hogan is just too good to bench?  Oh, here we go with the snorts and eye-rolls again, like he can't even stay as good as he was last sunday?  What makes that prospect so outlandish?  Go stand in the corner!

Anyway, that could get complicated.  However, if Kevin Hogan is another Steve Smith (you heard that here first...and only), why worry about it?

*naturally, you still gotta nab a Rosen or something if they're there.  You can always trade somebody later.*

Oh.  Some of you are stuck on the Steve Smith comparison.  Right up until this very season, a lot of Chiefs fans themselves wanted to replace this guy.  Most (competent) analysts regarded him as a conservative game manager who won't go deep.

Well, Steve Smith, a first overall draft pick, walked a rocky path.  I don't think he played in the same system two years in a row until his fourth or fifth season.

But he took the Niners to the NFC championship before being replaced by Kaeperdick, and Andy Reid jumped all over him.

He's been kicking ass ever since.  He's one of the winningest quarterbacks in football, and now he's going deep, every chance he gets (it helps when you have Tyreek Hill).

I'm with Andy!  I'd "settle for" that!  There might be a whole one or two better quarterbacks than Smith in the NFL right now.

Ok there's Rodgers, Brees and ummm...

Oh so now you think I'm saying Kevin Hogan could be that good, right?  You are correct.  Yes.   Kevin Hogan can become as good as Alex Smith.  Got it?

My inner fan is trying to talk me into thinking the Browns can beat DeShaun Watson and the Texans.

I hadn't processed that much in my last optimistic post.  The losses of Watt and Mercilus sort of set up a chain reaction:

1: Before, it was almost mandatory that opposing offenses either threw short (and very quickly), or at least chipped with tight ends, and still kept a back in to block.  This really limitted deep passes, and restricted the number of receivers that could be used.
It also allowed the Texans to use up to seven guys in coverage.

NOW, aside from Clowney (a major bastid), the Texans four man rush is significantly degraded (*I haven't studied their roster yet.  Might be missing a young unheralded somebody).

The Texans will try to play it straight at first, but rumors of the Browns offensive line's suckage in pass pro are greatly idiotic, because Kevin Hogan will get rid of the damn ball and make them miraculously much better (another wierd coincidence🤔).

2: Before, the Texans middle and back end didn't generally need to cover for more than 3.7-4.2 seconds, and could guarantee "help" on top, so they could really squeeze or sit on the (almost mandatory) short routes.

NOW, at least vs the pass, they will have to blitze, or else cover longer.  Hogan being inexperienced, they'll probably opt for the blitze, and hope he can't figure it out in time to burn it.

This takes a man out of coverage.  See?  These injuries will change everything for the Texans defense!  They'll have one less guy in coverage, or else have to cover longer!

Now, this defense has been pretty good at stopping the run, and we now know that Hue Scottenheimer won't let them zone-block, so Isaiah Crowell will have to fight for every inch.  And we know that the first play will be a run inside or to the right, and that more likely than not the second play will be a pass on second and 8-9.

It's okay.  I bash Hue over the zone-blocking stuff, but I get that if you can win your matchups in power/man, it breaks the defense's back.  It wears them down physically.  It slows down the pass rush.  It also tells a defense "we are stronger than you and don't care that you see us coming because you can't stop us".

I get that, but...well I digress:

Anyway, I expect lots of "12" sets with one running back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers after these utterly predictable first down stuffs, with Duke at running back.

Njoku will be one of these tight ends.  The other will be Telfer sometimes and DeValve sometimes, depending on how bad that Clowney bastid is hurting us; Telfer if he needs chipping.

One smart thing Hue has been doing is lining Duke up in the backfield.  When Duke sees a blitze coming, he goes out for a pass in the zone that guy came from instead of trying to pick it up.  It's saved Kizer's ass a bunch of times.

I'm not sure they'll do this with Hogan, because he might not need it.  Kizer couldn't reliably burn a blitze, so Hue made Duke his bailout guy in this manner; in effect letting Duke read and attack the empty zone, and just telling Kizer to look for him.

It might be different with the more experienced Hogan.  

Normally, an NFL quarterback is expected to read a blitze, and the "responsible" receiver is expected to read it as well, and make a bee-line for the vacuum the blitzer left behind him, ok?

I theorize that Kizer couldn't read that fast (*YET), but Hogan can.

This could show the Texans stuff that they haven't seen on film, as Duke might motion out and set up in a slot presnap, or might hit the flats, or possibly even actually pick the blitze up!

Sorry for the minutiae, but I'm in my cups indulging my Browns OCD-ness.

Now, going back over all that Kevin Hogan has done this preseason and season, with, of course, a "recency" bias, we can see that he and Njoku have some chemistry, that he can manage to locate Ricardo Louis, and he seems to like the new speedster Streggs too.

This is good.  Louis has started producing only as a "possession guy" to this point, so in their brave new post-injury world, the Texans might well cover him soft without help, as they see Njoku as the main threat.

If I were the Texans DC, I'd post a center fielder semi-deep and right in the middle to "cap" a passing attack I see as lacking proven outside deep threats, but deep in seam-splitting tight ends, with Duke Johnson a guy who turns short ones onto long ones too.

Concede the short stuff, prevent big plays, attack the inexperienced quarterback, hope he screws up, or for a deflection, or for drops; make the kid throw 6-9 dink-passes instead of one 35-plus yard one.  And ideally sack him, naturally.

Marry my strong safety to Njoku...damn...

Ok well sorta.  Off-man.  Dammit there goes a run-stopper but he's the best I got for this huge defacto wide receiver.  Stay on top of him to force a break, because he can't outrun you, then hope the pass is off the mark, or you can blow him up or strip it, or at least stop him where he catches it.

What if DeValve is there too?  Well you gotta do the same, except with a linebacker.  That's not good!  Well maybe you can jam him...no you can't.  He's an ex-wide receiver, and he can blow a linebacker's doors off.

What about Duke Johnson?

No opposing defense has yet "solved" Duke Johnson the receiver, and none ever will.  Even if he sets up right on the line as a true slot guy, you're insane if you try to jam him, but he usually lines up out of jamming range, and crosses the line of scrimmage at random points and angles.

The Cards did this with David Johnson, and now with Andre Ellington (I think).  

NOW: KEVIN HOGAN has weapons DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?  DeShone Kizer couldn't exploit them YET, but I believe Rodney Hoganfield will.

On the other side of the ball, Watson has been plowing everything in his path, and will be especially pissed off at the Browns for not drafting him.  And that's a real good offense!

The Browns defense just got Garrett and Shelton back, and are starting to get it together in the new system, but it looks like the Texans offense is...well, if Gregg can keep them under 21 points, I'll be overjoyed.

So the Browns will need to score 22 points, and I think with Hogan under center, and despite Hue's dumbassitude in run-blocking, they can.

*I did not predict a Browns victory.

UPDATE: Kevin Hogan will start vs the Texans, and here is a common sense explanation.






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