Friday, November 11, 2016

Browns vs Ravens Analysis Corrections

1: Terrelle Suggs did not get the best of Joe Thomas.  In fact, he ran away from Joe Thomas (stunted).  Later in the game, he did get a paw on McCown's arm to cause an interception vs Thomas, but did the rest of his damage looping around over guard and center on stunts.

2: Stunts are really hard to pick up because they flood protection zones and happen after offensive linemen are engaged with other passrushers.  Those other passrushers actually help out sometimes by not letting the blocker pull off them to get at him.

The offensive linemen often don't even see the stunter coming until it's too late, as he is running around behind another defender.

Teams don't stunt all the time because it opens up a gap, takes more time to execute, and fatigues the player.  But the principle is simple: The blockers are engaged, can't see him, and if they even can get a piece of him, they are stationary and off balance, and he has momentum.

Veteran teams stunt more against inexperienced and slow-footed guards and centers.  Cam Erving did about as well as could be expected.  He is inexperienced.  He doesn't have slow feet, but is tall.

On several of those plays, the quarterback held the ball through his first two reads.  Stunts are useless against a quick release, because they take too long.  Part of this was the receivers not getting open, or the quarterback not pulling the trigger on time.

Coverage on Pryor and Coleman was really good.  They walled off the crossing routes.

As hard as this is, close your eyes, take a deep breath, and give Terrelle Suggs his props.  I know you can do it.

3: Cody Kessler was not playing badly, and Hue Jackson wasn't punishing him.  I wouldn't have replaced him, because he has engineered impressive comebacks in every game he has completed.

But I can see how Hue wanted to use Josh to screw up the Ravens' game plan and spark the team.

One unusually intelligent caller to NFL Radio compared Kessler to Colt McCoy, and expressed doubt about his becoming a real franchise guy.  I hear that, but repeat: Those comebacks mean something, and people are overlooking them.

I don't know if Kessler can become elite, but as Mike Nolan said to the caller, you can count those guys on the fingers of one hand, and most NFL teams have a quarterback who is really good when he has help.  This is Kessler's floor.

4: Joe Haden is BACK.  One interception was a timing play bucket pass.  Joe anticipated that throw and got in front of Steve Smith the Senior.  Smith HAD TO slow down, and Joe became the receiver.  And by the way, Flacco was on the money.

On the other interception, Joe was on a different receiver than the one targeted, but he crouched down and "hid" from Flacco, then pounced.  But that was a bad throw by Flacco too.

5: Jamie Collins is still learning this defense and these teammates, but is already making a big impact.  He is blitzing a lot more than he did in New England, and really seems to like it!

We need ten more of him.

6: These referees were dumbasses, but screwed both teams about equally.  It was nice to see no Browns dumbasses lining up with their whole freaking heads in the neutral zone.  So we got that goin' for us...

7: Was that Chis Collinsworth the ex-wide receiver doing the color?  What was he looking at?  I mean I'm not one of those who thinks he hates the Browns, but I don't think he's very good.

8: Jimmy Haslam is not going to fire Hue Jackson.  Past results do not guarantee future performance.  Haslam himself predicted a "several year" project, and was not running for office.

For the first time since he bought the team a short time ago, Haslam landed his first choice Head Coach: One with Head Coaching experience and a good record with a not very good team.

He also knows he'll get the Art Modell treatment by the entire fan base and every NFL pundit if he does that.  You people: Haslam is not a child.  He is capable of patience.  Stop it.

The Browns now have a long vacation, and I assume that after giving his guys a short break, Hue will use the time to stabalize things.

Kessler can get some extra reps.  They can focus more on third downs and deep passes.  I still think he will whip out the Baylor offense sooner or later.

Opposing defenses (at keast the last two) have had their number.  Kessler has been an efficient nickel and dime game manager, partly because Hue Jackson has schemed to play to those strengths with short and intermediate slants and crosses by the outside receivers.

The conventional answer to a West Coast is zone coverage, but Dallas and Baltimore used man on the outside and walled off the inside to Pryor and Coleman.

The receiver's adjustment is to go vertical and come back with a safety over the top, or go postal if not.  Kessler has made a lot of hay with Pryor on comebacks, but these have been 8-12 yard gains.

Kessler simply hasn't been good on long throws to the perimeter, and they take too long to develop.  Naturally, defenses are forcing him to do that if the Browns are to make any use of their top two offensive threats.

Kessler has actually done a fine job of finding and hitting his third options in the running backs, although I'm not sure why Barnidge isn't productive (might be blocking).  But the net results are short gains.  Even if a quarterback hits 70%, eventually the 30% stalls him.  And the slow march eats up clock time.

I keep harping on the Baylor because the two outside receivers can run pick  rub routes to get one of them inside and under leverage for slants and crosses, and the coverage guys can't press them safely.

Of course, I also imagine that during this off time, Kessler will be going deep to the edges til he gets it right.  As a junior in college, he did this successfully.  Those who say he can't didn't do their homework.  It will never be his top skill, but he has it in him to threaten every part of the field, and once he burns somebody that way once or twice, defenses will have to quit what they're doing to stifle him now.

Now, Coleman is not Pryor, and can't be that type of deep threat.  Kessler can "force" it to Pryor in traffic or over the top, because he has the size to come up with the well-placed ball.

Coleman, however, can excel from the slot, where he can't be leveraged and has a two-way go.

I know that the team isn't dispirited and won't quit.  I know that Hue Jackson and his excellent veteran assistants will make the most of this extra-long off week.  I know Kessler is as confident and determined as ever.

I think the Ravens were their best chance for a win, and Sashi Brown will win the first overall draft pick sweepstakes, but this offense is average at worst, and this defense has a ton of front seven talent that should show up soon.

Right now, we can point to Collins, Haden, Kirksey, and Shelton.  But Ogbah and Nassib are just getting started.  Ok we can call this the worst defense in the NFL based on performance.  But it's by no stretch of any imagination the least talented.

Ray Horton doesn't need to make any big changes.  The inexperienced players simply need to develop as they play, and stop screwing up.

...except the tackling, man!  It's a fundamental skill!  Don't the Browns have those robotic tackling dummies yet?  Several college teams have them.  Sashi if not why not?  MOST of the big plays against this defense have been after missed tackles.  Sometimes 3 or four missed tackles!

The Browns used to have a little 185 lb. cornerback.  He'd latch onto Jerome Bettis's ankle and make like a human ball and chain.  Bettis would lurch foreward and drag him along til the cavalry arrived.  That's how you do it.  Any way you can.

Updated w/l prediction: 6-10.


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