A lot of people think that Bill Belichick just loves Jabobi Brisset, and therefore will be willing to part with Jimmy Garropolo. I doubt this. Garropolo is much more accurate.
Still, Brisset is a dual threat athletic freak, and visions of Russell Wilson might dance in Bill's head. He might also feel that he has time, before Tom Brady retires or is hauled out on a stretcher, to find one last heir apparent.
To me, it appears that Garropolo is that guy, BUT what might the Sith Lord do with, say, the 21st overall draft pick, and perhaps a fourth rounder?
The Browns probably will try to trade for the accurate young veteran. And Belichick has some age on his team. He also will have some cap concerns after he presumably re-signs his players.
Jimmy has one year remaining on his rookie contract, with a base salary of less than one million. Unless Bill expects to replace Tom Brady in 2018, he won't want to pay Garropolo the starting money he will command on the open market, and he will lose him.
This offseason will be his last chance to trade him. I guess I am personally even more cold-blooded and calculating than Lord Insideous, because I would re-sign Jimmy and try to trade Brady instead. I would be called insane, and burned in effigy, but I would do it anyway.
So, maybe Sashi can pull it off. Probably the Eagles first rounder, and a fourth. Knowing Bill, he trades the first rounder down, and refills his ammunition box. And probably indeed drafts another quarterback.
Should Sashi do it? It's scary, because lots of quarterbacks with limited experience have gone to new teams and fallen on their faces. Would Jimmy have time to throw here? Will Barnidge still be Barnidge?
Tough call, but I would do it. Jimmy learned from the best, and ran the same scheme as Brady. The offensive line will be more mature and healthy next season, and Coleman, Pryor, Duke, and Crow are nothing to sneeze at. I believe he would succeed.
This concern about his inexperience, and the great supporting cast he has in New England, could well cap his price. A lower third first round pick and some change could well do it, if Bill is indeed willing to pull the trigger.
One guy on "Ask Mary Kay" suggested trading for Jimmy AND drafting a quarterback first or second overall, and Mary Kay liked the idea.
I don't know. On the one hand, this is insurance, and maybe the last shot they get at drafting an elite quarterback. As Mary pointed out, if they find themselves stuck with two of them, they could always trade one.
On the other hand, they would need to re-sign Garropolo to trade him-and otherwise lose him, just as Bill would have, after 2017. Also, look at the awesome passrusher they would be passing up, or the multiple picks they could have instead.
Pat Kirwan (NFL Radio) continues to irk me. In commenting about Jamie Collins, Pat says he doesn't get it:
There's no way he'll want to stay there. If he does, they'll have to pay him a fortune, and where does that fit in with moneyball?
First, not every player is a greedy mercenary devoid of critical thinking skills and addicted to instant gratification.
Mitchell Schwartze was willing to stick around, once he failed to squeeze another drop of blood out of another stone. Alex Mack might have stayed, had the Browns been willing to overpay him. Joe Thomas sees a bright future here. All the other players were willing to stay, once Hue Jackson was hired.
All of them have great confidence in this coaching staff, and are aware of how very young and TALENTED this team is. There is no reason why Jamie Collins won't feel the same.
Second, this isn't moneyball. Collins has a value. He is exceptional and will require an exceptional contract. If he is worth it, he will be re-signed. Because you pay a third string offensive lineman the league minimum doesn't mean you don't pay a playmaker the market price.
Look at how Bill Belichick does it! He PAID Edelman, Gronk, etc and traded Collins so that he could focus on paying two other stud players. It's not moneyball. It's common sense!
What does Kirwan think, the Browns intend to STAY 40 million under the cap every year? He thinks they'll keep letting their best players go because they're cheapskates?
Pat doesn't get it. I don't get Pat.
I also don't get these Fantasy Gurus pushing Beckham Jr vs the Browns when he's going to be wearing Joe Haden like a sweater.
The Browns will probably lose another one, but it won't be because Pryor never gets the ball deep, or Barnidge never gets two yards of separation. Just get rid of the damn ball, Josh. Just get rid of it.
Sunday, November 27, 2016
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Browns Offensive Line: NOT a Disaster
After checking out Cam Erving with PFF, I have to concede that he is pretty bad at center. But again, it was RG John Greco, more than anybody else, who did a batwing door impression and let the quarterbacks get slammed vs the Steelers.
Nor were Erving's line calls responsible. Every passrusher had a hat on him. The individual blockers were physically beaten. I feel like I'm back in junior high, watching a bunch of eighth graders torture a seventh grade nerd.
I mean, it's so much fun to abuse somebody! Everybody wants to get in on it! Haha!
Well, I feel for Erving. Bad enough he's playing so badly. Now he's being blamed for Greco's blown blocks, and for the quarterbacks holding the ball all day, and for guys not executing their assignments too.
Even Terry Pluto got in on it. Very few scouting services had Erving rated as a first rounder? Wrong! Almost all of them did, and a few had him rated as the best overall offensive lineman. I can't believe my buddy Terry giggling and kicking the guy too---are we wolves, or something? We smell blood and stop thinking?
But Terry suggesting that Greco at center might work better makes sense.
Hue Jackson said that if Erving couldn't master center, he would be tried at tackle. There you go again, snickering and laughing. Don't let him get up! Keep kicking him! He's not even crying yet!
Erving was an elite college tackle before he moved to center in his last five college games. He had good height and good feet. His height and long limbs were an advantage outside in space, but are a disadvantage inside vs defensive tackles.
But that's for next training camp. Cam played left tackle in college, and playing on the right side is like night and day, as LeCharles Bentley stresses. If Cam Erving can't play right tackle, THEN he's a bust.
Which brings us back to center: John Greco is a nice option for now, and Austin Reiter made a strong first impression before hitting IR.
Reiter was entering his second NFL season. His scouting reports were mixed. He had a ton of college starts, but played at the lowest level. His bench press was phenominal, and (bullcrap aside) his speed and agility were slightly above average. In short, he proved to at least have the physical tools to succeed in the NFL.
Most reports projected him as a backup in his first NFL season, owing to his extensive experience and solid technique. Some declared him a carreer backup, while others said he could start eventually.
Reiter blocks well at the second level, in space, and drives people off the ball. Because of his level of competition, his college stats aren't reliable, but for what it's worth, he protected exceptionally well too.
Reiter is being taken very seriously as a potential starter in 2017 for the Browns. It will be his third NFL season, and he has now proven that, at least for one game, he can take on NFL starters and beat them.
At guard, Spencer Drango is emerging as a pleasant rookie surprise, especially in protection (well I mean for any quarterback who doesn't need all freaking day).
Bitonio will of course reclaim left guard when he returns.
Center would ideally be Reiter, but could be Greco if he's not good enough. Right guard is between Drango, Greco, et al. Shon Coleman, Erving, Pazstor, and maybe Drango can fight over right tackle.
Note on Pasztor: Per PFF, he has improved dramaticly at right tackle, and is also a potential starting guard.
In short, the Browns will no doubt draft an offensive lineman or two high, but this is not the disaster Chicken Little is squawking about. There are five offensive line positions, and Bitonio is one of them.
Who starts at the other three positions is unknown, but there are good and emerging players who should do fine.
As Lesmerisis so eloquently points out, Hue Jackson shouldn't have to defend Sashi Brown among adults. This IS a rebuilding, and developing young players SHOULD BE the main focus.
Sashi will ideally ignore Chicken Little in the draft. He doesn't need to replace the whole offensive line. He has a solid foundation that can be enhanced.
He doesn't need any more "playmakers", either. He just needs a quarterback.
The cornerbacks have actually been playing pretty well, but they're all vertically challenged. Brien Boddy-Calhoun is a big surprise, and has a bright future.
The defense in general doesn't need a major upgrade (no. It. Doesn't.). The safeties need to improve vs the run, and make the correct presnap calls. Nassib needs both hands. They need to re-sign Jamie Collins, and design ways to feature him.
This is the plan. Jimmy Haslam doesn't need to be patient. The fans do.
Nor were Erving's line calls responsible. Every passrusher had a hat on him. The individual blockers were physically beaten. I feel like I'm back in junior high, watching a bunch of eighth graders torture a seventh grade nerd.
I mean, it's so much fun to abuse somebody! Everybody wants to get in on it! Haha!
Well, I feel for Erving. Bad enough he's playing so badly. Now he's being blamed for Greco's blown blocks, and for the quarterbacks holding the ball all day, and for guys not executing their assignments too.
Even Terry Pluto got in on it. Very few scouting services had Erving rated as a first rounder? Wrong! Almost all of them did, and a few had him rated as the best overall offensive lineman. I can't believe my buddy Terry giggling and kicking the guy too---are we wolves, or something? We smell blood and stop thinking?
But Terry suggesting that Greco at center might work better makes sense.
Hue Jackson said that if Erving couldn't master center, he would be tried at tackle. There you go again, snickering and laughing. Don't let him get up! Keep kicking him! He's not even crying yet!
Erving was an elite college tackle before he moved to center in his last five college games. He had good height and good feet. His height and long limbs were an advantage outside in space, but are a disadvantage inside vs defensive tackles.
But that's for next training camp. Cam played left tackle in college, and playing on the right side is like night and day, as LeCharles Bentley stresses. If Cam Erving can't play right tackle, THEN he's a bust.
Which brings us back to center: John Greco is a nice option for now, and Austin Reiter made a strong first impression before hitting IR.
Reiter was entering his second NFL season. His scouting reports were mixed. He had a ton of college starts, but played at the lowest level. His bench press was phenominal, and (bullcrap aside) his speed and agility were slightly above average. In short, he proved to at least have the physical tools to succeed in the NFL.
Most reports projected him as a backup in his first NFL season, owing to his extensive experience and solid technique. Some declared him a carreer backup, while others said he could start eventually.
Reiter blocks well at the second level, in space, and drives people off the ball. Because of his level of competition, his college stats aren't reliable, but for what it's worth, he protected exceptionally well too.
Reiter is being taken very seriously as a potential starter in 2017 for the Browns. It will be his third NFL season, and he has now proven that, at least for one game, he can take on NFL starters and beat them.
At guard, Spencer Drango is emerging as a pleasant rookie surprise, especially in protection (well I mean for any quarterback who doesn't need all freaking day).
Bitonio will of course reclaim left guard when he returns.
Center would ideally be Reiter, but could be Greco if he's not good enough. Right guard is between Drango, Greco, et al. Shon Coleman, Erving, Pazstor, and maybe Drango can fight over right tackle.
Note on Pasztor: Per PFF, he has improved dramaticly at right tackle, and is also a potential starting guard.
In short, the Browns will no doubt draft an offensive lineman or two high, but this is not the disaster Chicken Little is squawking about. There are five offensive line positions, and Bitonio is one of them.
Who starts at the other three positions is unknown, but there are good and emerging players who should do fine.
As Lesmerisis so eloquently points out, Hue Jackson shouldn't have to defend Sashi Brown among adults. This IS a rebuilding, and developing young players SHOULD BE the main focus.
Sashi will ideally ignore Chicken Little in the draft. He doesn't need to replace the whole offensive line. He has a solid foundation that can be enhanced.
He doesn't need any more "playmakers", either. He just needs a quarterback.
The cornerbacks have actually been playing pretty well, but they're all vertically challenged. Brien Boddy-Calhoun is a big surprise, and has a bright future.
The defense in general doesn't need a major upgrade (no. It. Doesn't.). The safeties need to improve vs the run, and make the correct presnap calls. Nassib needs both hands. They need to re-sign Jamie Collins, and design ways to feature him.
This is the plan. Jimmy Haslam doesn't need to be patient. The fans do.
Monday, November 21, 2016
Quarterback and Offensive Linemen. Definitely Quarterback and--
When an offense can't hold onto the ball, a defense wears down. We saw this vs the Steelers, as the defense held that offense to six points in the first half...until consecutive penalties all but guaranteed that Belle could gain a couple feet for a touchdown.
Not that they were very good in the first place, just sayin.
Why couldn't the offense sustain drives? Well at first, I thought it was because the Steelers suddenly had an awesome secondary, because Cody Kessler just couldn't find anybody open and kept patting and then eating the ball.
Then Josh McCown came in, and receivers magically came open!
Well actually, McCown rifled it into tighter windows. He, too, held and ate the ball sometimes, but more often threw a pass on time. He is less accurate than Kessler, but at least he got rid of the damn ball.
It really is too soon to file a final verdict on Cody Kessler, but it sure does not look like he can be the guy at this point. One issue does seem to be his arm.
Case in point was the pass over the middle to Gary Barnidge. It was a frozen rope into very tight coverage. Barnidge made a terrific catch a couple inches above the turf, falling down with a reaching defender right on top of him.
Kessler can't make that throw. To his credit, he is aware of his own limitations, and plays within them. But it seems as if he needs a clear separation between his receiver and the coverage guy before he'll throw. That won't cut it in the NFL.
We can cross our fingers that Kessler will return next season with a stronger arm and a more aggressive mindset, but no way can Hue or Sashi count on that. They can try to trade for Jimmy Garropollo, or else draft one.
The Browns also need offensive linemen. The Steelers sent five man pressures a lot, but over half the sacks were on the quarterback (holding the ball), so the pass protection wasn't as bad as it looked. But the run-blocking was atrocious.
Rich Gannon kept referring to how Pryor was turning into a major weapon, Coleman was a big play threat, complimenting Crowell, Johnson, and Barnidge, then saying the Browns quarterbacks weren't getting enough help.
I would assume he was referring to the offensive line. I mean, if he wasn't, that's a case of cognitive dissonance I haven't seen since...the last Presidential election.
Garropollo would probably be the best option, since he's ready. But Bill Belichick has a very old quarterback, and has to look to the future. If he were willing to deal, the starting point for any deal would be the first round pick Sashi got from Philadelphia.
At this point, the consensus on those quarterbacks projects only two going in the first round, and none displacing Myles Garrett at first overall...
No, the Bleacher Report thinks the Browns will draft Mitch Trubisky first overall. Take that with a grain of salt though, because they have the Browns drafting Pocic, a center, next.
That's a lack of homework, because it presumes Erving is a bust, and ignores the guy on IR (Austin Reiter). And please don't confuse Cam Erving with John Greco. Greco had a horrific game vs Tuitt. Erving was ok, except for that boneheaded twitch of his.
Also, Bleacher Report has Trubisky as the only quarterback drafted in the first round. That shows profound naaivity, as quarterbacks are always overdrafted.
Trubisky is my own early favorite, because I know that THE most important tool is accuracy. Trubisky is very accurate.
Bob Rang points out that he is supported by NFL calibre talent (significant). He just threw two interceptions last week to lose a game. He only has ten starts (but was used a lot the previous year; probably has around 13 or 14 games worth of real experience).
He came from Mentor, Ohio, so some of the left over scouts on staff know about him.
My previous commentary on Trubisky was wrong (garbage in garbage out), but I now have it from more credible sources that his arm is just fine, and he's not merely "mobile", but a true dual-threat quarterback.
I was wrong about how this quarterback draft is being percieved, as well. This one could be more like 2013; the one which produced superstars like Geno Williams and...ummm...
But Trubisky does change plays, make protection calls, read and diagnose well. His percentage is not over-inflated by dink-passes---he is accurate over twenty yards.
Given this most recent game, his comparative inexperience, and strong supporting cast, he probably won't project as a top five draft pick overall, but he's a quarterback. Bigger, stronger, taller, and faster than Kessler, and with Kessler's positives as well.
Carson Wentz played at a lower level of competition, and also had superior talent around him, and also was inexperienced.
Right now, I would bet that LaCanfora found an acorn and is right for once: The Browns probably want this guy.
DeShaun Watson has fallen off the map. He isn't as accurate, and still throws too many interceptions. I don't know what's happened with Kizer, but do know that he completes ten percent fewer passes.
Bill Parcells once said that college completion percentages drop steeply in the pros as the windows shrink. Cody Kessler is finding that out. Guys with stronger arms can handle it better, as they can deliver quickly and on low trajectories. Trubisky can do that.
I hate giving up on a rare passrusher comparable to Von Miller, and overdrafting a quarterback, but the Browns may not have a choice.
It's okay, though: They have four more top 75 picks, and the top fourth rounder as well. They need secondary and offensive linemen first, and can still get most of that, especially if (shhh don't tell Tony) they trade down some more.
Say...I wonder if whoever drafts second (San Fran right now) would want Myles Garrett enough to cough up a third round pick to move up one slot...
This just in: A bunch of amateur draft "experts" now have the Browns drafting Watson or another defensive end first overall, proclaiming any quarterback they might draft DOA, and declaring none of the candidates worthy of the pick.
The last assertion is easy: Niether Goff nor Wentz were deemed worthy of their ultimate draft positions, but two teams traded away a LOT to move up and draft them. It happens every year. Think they might know something? Huh?
The first part is easy too: Joe Bitonio. Austin Reiter (counting?) Coleman, Rango, and yes: even Erving. The fact that three of the guys mentioned were rookies this season, and should make the single biggest improvement entering their second training camp. Pay attention! Stop generalizing!
Then there is, indeed, the draft. It's a virtual lock that at least one of the top 75 picks will be used on a stud offensive lineman, and starting offensive linemen can often be found atop the fourth round.
Finally, if a quarterback gets sacked after five, six, or seven seconds, stop blaming the offensive line for it, and don't blame the receivers either. When defenses are putting eight or even nine in the box and sending five, look at the quarterback there, too.
Coleman, Pryor, and Barnidge are all being covered like blankets down after down really? I don't think so.
If Trubisky or somebody else comes in here and just, for crying out loud, trusts the system and makes the tight throw (or throws it away, or runs and slides), he'll be fine with these guys back off IR, a year older, and coming in as high draft picks.
What is it with you? Shon Coleman no longer exists because he's played sparingly as a ROOKIE? Spencer Drango is an instabust because he had mixed results as a ROOKIE? Nobody ever gets better? Grows? Learns? Refines? Heals?
Three rookies, a second year player, and a Pro Bowl calibre player on IR and we're all gonna die STOP IT! You're bonkers, you know that?
If Mitch Trubisky or anybody else can get rid of the damn ball on time, draft him, and he'll be fine. The elephant in the room here IS the quarterback.
Note on Trubisky here: He does run a timing offense, and excels at throwing with anticipation. I saw his last interception. It was a deep pass on the hash marks. No receiver was anywhere close.
I'll bet you the receiver zigged when he was supposed to zag. It doesn't bother me. Trubisky could still be the guy.
Not that they were very good in the first place, just sayin.
Why couldn't the offense sustain drives? Well at first, I thought it was because the Steelers suddenly had an awesome secondary, because Cody Kessler just couldn't find anybody open and kept patting and then eating the ball.
Then Josh McCown came in, and receivers magically came open!
Well actually, McCown rifled it into tighter windows. He, too, held and ate the ball sometimes, but more often threw a pass on time. He is less accurate than Kessler, but at least he got rid of the damn ball.
It really is too soon to file a final verdict on Cody Kessler, but it sure does not look like he can be the guy at this point. One issue does seem to be his arm.
Case in point was the pass over the middle to Gary Barnidge. It was a frozen rope into very tight coverage. Barnidge made a terrific catch a couple inches above the turf, falling down with a reaching defender right on top of him.
Kessler can't make that throw. To his credit, he is aware of his own limitations, and plays within them. But it seems as if he needs a clear separation between his receiver and the coverage guy before he'll throw. That won't cut it in the NFL.
We can cross our fingers that Kessler will return next season with a stronger arm and a more aggressive mindset, but no way can Hue or Sashi count on that. They can try to trade for Jimmy Garropollo, or else draft one.
The Browns also need offensive linemen. The Steelers sent five man pressures a lot, but over half the sacks were on the quarterback (holding the ball), so the pass protection wasn't as bad as it looked. But the run-blocking was atrocious.
Rich Gannon kept referring to how Pryor was turning into a major weapon, Coleman was a big play threat, complimenting Crowell, Johnson, and Barnidge, then saying the Browns quarterbacks weren't getting enough help.
I would assume he was referring to the offensive line. I mean, if he wasn't, that's a case of cognitive dissonance I haven't seen since...the last Presidential election.
Garropollo would probably be the best option, since he's ready. But Bill Belichick has a very old quarterback, and has to look to the future. If he were willing to deal, the starting point for any deal would be the first round pick Sashi got from Philadelphia.
At this point, the consensus on those quarterbacks projects only two going in the first round, and none displacing Myles Garrett at first overall...
No, the Bleacher Report thinks the Browns will draft Mitch Trubisky first overall. Take that with a grain of salt though, because they have the Browns drafting Pocic, a center, next.
That's a lack of homework, because it presumes Erving is a bust, and ignores the guy on IR (Austin Reiter). And please don't confuse Cam Erving with John Greco. Greco had a horrific game vs Tuitt. Erving was ok, except for that boneheaded twitch of his.
Also, Bleacher Report has Trubisky as the only quarterback drafted in the first round. That shows profound naaivity, as quarterbacks are always overdrafted.
Trubisky is my own early favorite, because I know that THE most important tool is accuracy. Trubisky is very accurate.
Bob Rang points out that he is supported by NFL calibre talent (significant). He just threw two interceptions last week to lose a game. He only has ten starts (but was used a lot the previous year; probably has around 13 or 14 games worth of real experience).
He came from Mentor, Ohio, so some of the left over scouts on staff know about him.
My previous commentary on Trubisky was wrong (garbage in garbage out), but I now have it from more credible sources that his arm is just fine, and he's not merely "mobile", but a true dual-threat quarterback.
I was wrong about how this quarterback draft is being percieved, as well. This one could be more like 2013; the one which produced superstars like Geno Williams and...ummm...
But Trubisky does change plays, make protection calls, read and diagnose well. His percentage is not over-inflated by dink-passes---he is accurate over twenty yards.
Given this most recent game, his comparative inexperience, and strong supporting cast, he probably won't project as a top five draft pick overall, but he's a quarterback. Bigger, stronger, taller, and faster than Kessler, and with Kessler's positives as well.
Carson Wentz played at a lower level of competition, and also had superior talent around him, and also was inexperienced.
Right now, I would bet that LaCanfora found an acorn and is right for once: The Browns probably want this guy.
DeShaun Watson has fallen off the map. He isn't as accurate, and still throws too many interceptions. I don't know what's happened with Kizer, but do know that he completes ten percent fewer passes.
Bill Parcells once said that college completion percentages drop steeply in the pros as the windows shrink. Cody Kessler is finding that out. Guys with stronger arms can handle it better, as they can deliver quickly and on low trajectories. Trubisky can do that.
I hate giving up on a rare passrusher comparable to Von Miller, and overdrafting a quarterback, but the Browns may not have a choice.
It's okay, though: They have four more top 75 picks, and the top fourth rounder as well. They need secondary and offensive linemen first, and can still get most of that, especially if (shhh don't tell Tony) they trade down some more.
Say...I wonder if whoever drafts second (San Fran right now) would want Myles Garrett enough to cough up a third round pick to move up one slot...
This just in: A bunch of amateur draft "experts" now have the Browns drafting Watson or another defensive end first overall, proclaiming any quarterback they might draft DOA, and declaring none of the candidates worthy of the pick.
The last assertion is easy: Niether Goff nor Wentz were deemed worthy of their ultimate draft positions, but two teams traded away a LOT to move up and draft them. It happens every year. Think they might know something? Huh?
The first part is easy too: Joe Bitonio. Austin Reiter (counting?) Coleman, Rango, and yes: even Erving. The fact that three of the guys mentioned were rookies this season, and should make the single biggest improvement entering their second training camp. Pay attention! Stop generalizing!
Then there is, indeed, the draft. It's a virtual lock that at least one of the top 75 picks will be used on a stud offensive lineman, and starting offensive linemen can often be found atop the fourth round.
Finally, if a quarterback gets sacked after five, six, or seven seconds, stop blaming the offensive line for it, and don't blame the receivers either. When defenses are putting eight or even nine in the box and sending five, look at the quarterback there, too.
Coleman, Pryor, and Barnidge are all being covered like blankets down after down really? I don't think so.
If Trubisky or somebody else comes in here and just, for crying out loud, trusts the system and makes the tight throw (or throws it away, or runs and slides), he'll be fine with these guys back off IR, a year older, and coming in as high draft picks.
What is it with you? Shon Coleman no longer exists because he's played sparingly as a ROOKIE? Spencer Drango is an instabust because he had mixed results as a ROOKIE? Nobody ever gets better? Grows? Learns? Refines? Heals?
Three rookies, a second year player, and a Pro Bowl calibre player on IR and we're all gonna die STOP IT! You're bonkers, you know that?
If Mitch Trubisky or anybody else can get rid of the damn ball on time, draft him, and he'll be fine. The elephant in the room here IS the quarterback.
Note on Trubisky here: He does run a timing offense, and excels at throwing with anticipation. I saw his last interception. It was a deep pass on the hash marks. No receiver was anywhere close.
I'll bet you the receiver zigged when he was supposed to zag. It doesn't bother me. Trubisky could still be the guy.
Saturday, November 19, 2016
Cleveland Browns: The Good News
I was going to write about how the Steelers have proven themselves beatable, and the Browns could win.
It had to do with their vulnerability to the run, the extra days off/Hue Jackson, Jamie Collins, the emergence of a real pass rush...
I just can't do it. As atrocious as this defense has been, how can I? I read an article "The Browns are Really, Really, Really Bad":
It wasn't as bad as I had expected, but still lumped the offense in with the defense, and dismissed Cody Kessler without even mentioning him. Lazy writers generalize.
Real analysis is detailed and thorough. Unfortunately, it bores most people. That's why it takes mentally ill people like me to do it, and then I have to self-edit to try not to bore my own readers too much when I write about it.
Suffice it to say the Browns defense has been so horrific in 2016 that it masks a decent offense. If we could take a scalpel and surgically remove the fourth quarter (along with the defense), it would look really good.
I have my fingers crossed. Beat the Steelers, then who cares?
I read this aricle on draft prospects, and decided it's not too early for me to start watching some college football. The Browns have five top 75 draft picks, including two in the first round and the first overall.
Myles Garrett is the consensus Browns pick at first overall. He is a franchise-altering, perhaps generational talent. With Ogbah, Nassib, Kirksey, and Shelton already here, and ideally Jamie Collins re-signed, this one player could seriously upgrade every part of this defense.
The quarterbacks have all fallen off somewhat, except for Mitch Trubisky, who has come out of no where at North Carolina. He wasn't even on the radar prior to this season.
I already learned what's "wrong" with him: He doesn't have a cannon arm. He does have a good arm, and can and does make all the throws, but not having a Derrick Anderson arm will turn off a lot of amateur pundits and casual fans (and of course Phil Simms).
Also, he only has ten starts to-date, and runs a shotgun spread (both legitimate question marks). But he is highly intelligent, decisive, and accurate; 70-plus percent with perfect placement. He can run around pretty good too (runs some read option).
DeShaun Watson has actually fallen out of the first round, but Kizer remains at or near the top (with Trubisky) of what is now being called a deep quarterback class lacking elite talent.
It's ok. That's what they said about last year's quarterbacks.
Jabrill Peppers is another freak who can play multiple positions and would upgrade the secondary.
I have no idea what the Browns will do, because we don't know enough about Cody Kessler yet, or if there's a Dak Prescott lurking under the stats.
Don't tell Grossi I said this, but trading down is a possibility.
Normally, I always want to do this if a quarterback isn't right there, but this Garrett guy is actually worth that pick. ...I mean, unless you can get a Trubisky/Kizer AND a Jabrill Peppers AND a stud right tackle instead...
I'm going to try to watch North Carolina, Texas A&M, and/or Michigan (and stuff) so I can have positive stuff to write about and retain my infernal optimism.
Early report on Garrett: His highlight tapes make it look like nobody bothered to block him. He's just that quick. Twice, he got right up to the mesh-point of a read-option play, stood there til he saw who came away with the ball, and tackled him right there. Once it was the running back, then it was the quarterback.
Who else can stand still like that, then tackle a fast guy who is already running? Wow!
It had to do with their vulnerability to the run, the extra days off/Hue Jackson, Jamie Collins, the emergence of a real pass rush...
I just can't do it. As atrocious as this defense has been, how can I? I read an article "The Browns are Really, Really, Really Bad":
It wasn't as bad as I had expected, but still lumped the offense in with the defense, and dismissed Cody Kessler without even mentioning him. Lazy writers generalize.
Real analysis is detailed and thorough. Unfortunately, it bores most people. That's why it takes mentally ill people like me to do it, and then I have to self-edit to try not to bore my own readers too much when I write about it.
Suffice it to say the Browns defense has been so horrific in 2016 that it masks a decent offense. If we could take a scalpel and surgically remove the fourth quarter (along with the defense), it would look really good.
I have my fingers crossed. Beat the Steelers, then who cares?
I read this aricle on draft prospects, and decided it's not too early for me to start watching some college football. The Browns have five top 75 draft picks, including two in the first round and the first overall.
Myles Garrett is the consensus Browns pick at first overall. He is a franchise-altering, perhaps generational talent. With Ogbah, Nassib, Kirksey, and Shelton already here, and ideally Jamie Collins re-signed, this one player could seriously upgrade every part of this defense.
The quarterbacks have all fallen off somewhat, except for Mitch Trubisky, who has come out of no where at North Carolina. He wasn't even on the radar prior to this season.
I already learned what's "wrong" with him: He doesn't have a cannon arm. He does have a good arm, and can and does make all the throws, but not having a Derrick Anderson arm will turn off a lot of amateur pundits and casual fans (and of course Phil Simms).
Also, he only has ten starts to-date, and runs a shotgun spread (both legitimate question marks). But he is highly intelligent, decisive, and accurate; 70-plus percent with perfect placement. He can run around pretty good too (runs some read option).
DeShaun Watson has actually fallen out of the first round, but Kizer remains at or near the top (with Trubisky) of what is now being called a deep quarterback class lacking elite talent.
It's ok. That's what they said about last year's quarterbacks.
Jabrill Peppers is another freak who can play multiple positions and would upgrade the secondary.
I have no idea what the Browns will do, because we don't know enough about Cody Kessler yet, or if there's a Dak Prescott lurking under the stats.
Don't tell Grossi I said this, but trading down is a possibility.
Normally, I always want to do this if a quarterback isn't right there, but this Garrett guy is actually worth that pick. ...I mean, unless you can get a Trubisky/Kizer AND a Jabrill Peppers AND a stud right tackle instead...
I'm going to try to watch North Carolina, Texas A&M, and/or Michigan (and stuff) so I can have positive stuff to write about and retain my infernal optimism.
Early report on Garrett: His highlight tapes make it look like nobody bothered to block him. He's just that quick. Twice, he got right up to the mesh-point of a read-option play, stood there til he saw who came away with the ball, and tackled him right there. Once it was the running back, then it was the quarterback.
Who else can stand still like that, then tackle a fast guy who is already running? Wow!
Monday, November 14, 2016
Cleveland Browns and Poor Punditry
I like Mike Carrucci, who used to cover the Browns and now covers the Bills.
But I'm bugged by both him and Terry Pluto after things they said and wrote this past week.
Mike described what Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta are doing as virtually indentical to "moneyball". On that premise, he and a majority of other pundits and NFL front office people feel this can't work in football as it did in baseball.
If you accept this premise, they are correct. But the premise is false, so they are wrong.
They all say that there is a lot more to football than raw numbers. They are referring to instincts, work ethic, toughness, heart, etc.
Well, in the first place, many of these elements are actually quantifyiable in numbers. PFF gets pretty deep into specific matchups, situations, etc., but that's not all there is.
Paul DePodesta could have founded PFF. He no doubt used their stats and ratings as a baseline, but played football himself, worked briefly in football, and today in conference with football professionals is building his own, deeper system.
Let's take a defensive end/linebacker hybrid. Paul asks staff scouts, Ray Horton, assistant coaches, and other professionals to describe their ideal player (weighting Horton's opinion most heavily, since it's his system).
They will tell him. In Horton's case, he might have said "He needs to be able to bull rush. That's more important than speed. He has to shed blocks, not run around them. He has to be quick off the ball to get on the lineman before he can set up. Coverage matters, but (blahblahblah)"
DePodesta can break ALL of this down into numbers. Nor is he doing this part in a vacuum. He has scouts and coaches watching films with him. "No that wasn't his fault. He was following orders." "No that wasn't his guy" etc.
Everything Mike Mayock looks at yes, can be fitted into a unique, complex mathematical formula per position, including level of competition, situation, type of matchup player, specific role in defense, and on and on.
How it works: Scouts say "takes plays off" about a guy. Browns bosses tell the Quality Control guy to go over tapes for the last two seasons and compile those in which even a clueless dumbass could have seen this.
They get maybe 32 plays. Now, how many were late in games? How many plays had the player run? Were the plays in question clustered together, indicative of an undisclosed injury or illness? Was he holding up a guy as part of a scheme? Was it a running or stationary quarterback?
Now, a REAL analyst gets a picture. As often as not, this "takes plays off" label is bogus, but could point to lack of physical conditioning, which in turn could question his dedication or work ethic. And/or, it could be scheme and situation related: ie doing his job.
All of this is measurable.
To be clear, that's not all DePodesta does, or even his primary role with the team. Really, with the same guidance from the real professionals, a lot of math guys can build these formulae.
And they've been quite clear about this stuff themselves: Sashi Brown is nominally in charge of personnel, but he's not going to override the coach. Hue Jackson himself seems glad to have somebody else taking the grunt work off his hands so he can do what he likes and does best.
DePodesta said that he didn't view Carson Wentz as a top twenty quarterback. I assume he went back to the drawing board, because boy, was he fulla crap! Wentz could well fall back into the pack over time, but I can't believe that he'll ever get into the twenties. And by the way, it was a really dumb thing to say.
It doesn't mean that his embryonic methodology is unworkable. He said when he came here, it would take time, and that he wouldn't even have a lot to do with the first draft of his tenure. His system was a penciled in rough draft at that time.
You need to trust me on this. To beat another dead horse, analytics is a big word, but it's ultimately just the deepest and least subjective form of analysis. It uses all the same information Bill Belichick, Mike Mayock, and scouts use to flag players for a specific system and team. The difference is, it doesn't fall in love, or miss anything.
The Browns also made it quite clear that they would NOT rely exclusively on analytics!
Now, Mike Carrucci has an open mind, but for now he says "it doesn't look good" for the Browns and analytics.
But Mike himself stipulates a significant amount of real talent, and that this is the youngest team in the NFL. Mike himself says that a bunch of these players will make a big jump coming back from the off season.
He likes the overall draft. He likes Jamie Collins. So why does Carrucci, in the next sentence, say "I don't think it's working."?
Well, no doubt trading away from Carson Wentz was part of it. But here again, Mike declares that jury still out, since the Browns did get some very talented players out of that deal.
I would add that criticisms of Wentz are identical to those of Cody Kessler: Nickel and dime passes, and sometimes overlooking open receivers.
Oh well. Mike's not a computer program. He is a subjective human being...see?
Terry Pluto is afraid that Jimmy and Dee Haslam will fire Hue Jackson.
Hue was the first choice. Hue is the first guy he didn't inherit or didn't have to settle for. The first guy since Mangini (who was in place when he bought the team) with Head Coaching experience.
In Cincinnatti, they can't figure out why the team is having problems. Well, losing Marvin Jones and Mohammad Sanu are part of that, but losing Hue Jackson is probably the biggest part.
Terry is a worry-wart. The Haslams meant what they said. Jimmy's statements imply a minimum 3 year window. Not to reach the Superbowl, but just to become above average.
Terry and others keep insulting the Haslams with these admonitions for him to be patient. Because he dumped the last two guys so quickly, they see him as a spoiled brat who expects instant gratification.
But he had tangible reasons for these terminations. This time, the whole team is essentially brand new, the players love Hue, they are fighting, and Hue Jackson is part of a Pilot (pun intended) experiment to see if there is a better and more predictable way to build and sustain a contender FROM THE GROUND UP DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
So Jimmy Haslam won't change anything for several seasons except...well there's Ray Horton. Dawgs by Nature mentions resistance to his hiring in the organization, and as I wrote, I had doubts as well. Hue insisted. My own favorite was Jim Schwartze.
Rhona LaCanfora and other gossip-mongers describe the Haslams as control freaks micromanaging everything. This is assenine, and no doubt based on the fact that both Hue and Sashi report to him, rather than the Coach having to go through a General Manager.
Dawgs by Nature correctly calls this another reach by Rhona, and quotes what Hue Jackson said about it. People like LaCanfora never, ever, believe any public statements by anybody. The possibility that any of it could be sincere never occurs to them.
Ray could be in trouble, but only him.
But I'm bugged by both him and Terry Pluto after things they said and wrote this past week.
Mike described what Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta are doing as virtually indentical to "moneyball". On that premise, he and a majority of other pundits and NFL front office people feel this can't work in football as it did in baseball.
If you accept this premise, they are correct. But the premise is false, so they are wrong.
They all say that there is a lot more to football than raw numbers. They are referring to instincts, work ethic, toughness, heart, etc.
Well, in the first place, many of these elements are actually quantifyiable in numbers. PFF gets pretty deep into specific matchups, situations, etc., but that's not all there is.
Paul DePodesta could have founded PFF. He no doubt used their stats and ratings as a baseline, but played football himself, worked briefly in football, and today in conference with football professionals is building his own, deeper system.
Let's take a defensive end/linebacker hybrid. Paul asks staff scouts, Ray Horton, assistant coaches, and other professionals to describe their ideal player (weighting Horton's opinion most heavily, since it's his system).
They will tell him. In Horton's case, he might have said "He needs to be able to bull rush. That's more important than speed. He has to shed blocks, not run around them. He has to be quick off the ball to get on the lineman before he can set up. Coverage matters, but (blahblahblah)"
DePodesta can break ALL of this down into numbers. Nor is he doing this part in a vacuum. He has scouts and coaches watching films with him. "No that wasn't his fault. He was following orders." "No that wasn't his guy" etc.
Everything Mike Mayock looks at yes, can be fitted into a unique, complex mathematical formula per position, including level of competition, situation, type of matchup player, specific role in defense, and on and on.
How it works: Scouts say "takes plays off" about a guy. Browns bosses tell the Quality Control guy to go over tapes for the last two seasons and compile those in which even a clueless dumbass could have seen this.
They get maybe 32 plays. Now, how many were late in games? How many plays had the player run? Were the plays in question clustered together, indicative of an undisclosed injury or illness? Was he holding up a guy as part of a scheme? Was it a running or stationary quarterback?
Now, a REAL analyst gets a picture. As often as not, this "takes plays off" label is bogus, but could point to lack of physical conditioning, which in turn could question his dedication or work ethic. And/or, it could be scheme and situation related: ie doing his job.
All of this is measurable.
To be clear, that's not all DePodesta does, or even his primary role with the team. Really, with the same guidance from the real professionals, a lot of math guys can build these formulae.
And they've been quite clear about this stuff themselves: Sashi Brown is nominally in charge of personnel, but he's not going to override the coach. Hue Jackson himself seems glad to have somebody else taking the grunt work off his hands so he can do what he likes and does best.
DePodesta said that he didn't view Carson Wentz as a top twenty quarterback. I assume he went back to the drawing board, because boy, was he fulla crap! Wentz could well fall back into the pack over time, but I can't believe that he'll ever get into the twenties. And by the way, it was a really dumb thing to say.
It doesn't mean that his embryonic methodology is unworkable. He said when he came here, it would take time, and that he wouldn't even have a lot to do with the first draft of his tenure. His system was a penciled in rough draft at that time.
You need to trust me on this. To beat another dead horse, analytics is a big word, but it's ultimately just the deepest and least subjective form of analysis. It uses all the same information Bill Belichick, Mike Mayock, and scouts use to flag players for a specific system and team. The difference is, it doesn't fall in love, or miss anything.
The Browns also made it quite clear that they would NOT rely exclusively on analytics!
Now, Mike Carrucci has an open mind, but for now he says "it doesn't look good" for the Browns and analytics.
But Mike himself stipulates a significant amount of real talent, and that this is the youngest team in the NFL. Mike himself says that a bunch of these players will make a big jump coming back from the off season.
He likes the overall draft. He likes Jamie Collins. So why does Carrucci, in the next sentence, say "I don't think it's working."?
Well, no doubt trading away from Carson Wentz was part of it. But here again, Mike declares that jury still out, since the Browns did get some very talented players out of that deal.
I would add that criticisms of Wentz are identical to those of Cody Kessler: Nickel and dime passes, and sometimes overlooking open receivers.
Oh well. Mike's not a computer program. He is a subjective human being...see?
Terry Pluto is afraid that Jimmy and Dee Haslam will fire Hue Jackson.
Hue was the first choice. Hue is the first guy he didn't inherit or didn't have to settle for. The first guy since Mangini (who was in place when he bought the team) with Head Coaching experience.
In Cincinnatti, they can't figure out why the team is having problems. Well, losing Marvin Jones and Mohammad Sanu are part of that, but losing Hue Jackson is probably the biggest part.
Terry is a worry-wart. The Haslams meant what they said. Jimmy's statements imply a minimum 3 year window. Not to reach the Superbowl, but just to become above average.
Terry and others keep insulting the Haslams with these admonitions for him to be patient. Because he dumped the last two guys so quickly, they see him as a spoiled brat who expects instant gratification.
But he had tangible reasons for these terminations. This time, the whole team is essentially brand new, the players love Hue, they are fighting, and Hue Jackson is part of a Pilot (pun intended) experiment to see if there is a better and more predictable way to build and sustain a contender FROM THE GROUND UP DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
So Jimmy Haslam won't change anything for several seasons except...well there's Ray Horton. Dawgs by Nature mentions resistance to his hiring in the organization, and as I wrote, I had doubts as well. Hue insisted. My own favorite was Jim Schwartze.
Rhona LaCanfora and other gossip-mongers describe the Haslams as control freaks micromanaging everything. This is assenine, and no doubt based on the fact that both Hue and Sashi report to him, rather than the Coach having to go through a General Manager.
Dawgs by Nature correctly calls this another reach by Rhona, and quotes what Hue Jackson said about it. People like LaCanfora never, ever, believe any public statements by anybody. The possibility that any of it could be sincere never occurs to them.
Ray could be in trouble, but only him.
Friday, November 11, 2016
Browns vs Ravens Analysis Corrections
1: Terrelle Suggs did not get the best of Joe Thomas. In fact, he ran away from Joe Thomas (stunted). Later in the game, he did get a paw on McCown's arm to cause an interception vs Thomas, but did the rest of his damage looping around over guard and center on stunts.
2: Stunts are really hard to pick up because they flood protection zones and happen after offensive linemen are engaged with other passrushers. Those other passrushers actually help out sometimes by not letting the blocker pull off them to get at him.
The offensive linemen often don't even see the stunter coming until it's too late, as he is running around behind another defender.
Teams don't stunt all the time because it opens up a gap, takes more time to execute, and fatigues the player. But the principle is simple: The blockers are engaged, can't see him, and if they even can get a piece of him, they are stationary and off balance, and he has momentum.
Veteran teams stunt more against inexperienced and slow-footed guards and centers. Cam Erving did about as well as could be expected. He is inexperienced. He doesn't have slow feet, but is tall.
On several of those plays, the quarterback held the ball through his first two reads. Stunts are useless against a quick release, because they take too long. Part of this was the receivers not getting open, or the quarterback not pulling the trigger on time.
Coverage on Pryor and Coleman was really good. They walled off the crossing routes.
As hard as this is, close your eyes, take a deep breath, and give Terrelle Suggs his props. I know you can do it.
3: Cody Kessler was not playing badly, and Hue Jackson wasn't punishing him. I wouldn't have replaced him, because he has engineered impressive comebacks in every game he has completed.
But I can see how Hue wanted to use Josh to screw up the Ravens' game plan and spark the team.
One unusually intelligent caller to NFL Radio compared Kessler to Colt McCoy, and expressed doubt about his becoming a real franchise guy. I hear that, but repeat: Those comebacks mean something, and people are overlooking them.
I don't know if Kessler can become elite, but as Mike Nolan said to the caller, you can count those guys on the fingers of one hand, and most NFL teams have a quarterback who is really good when he has help. This is Kessler's floor.
4: Joe Haden is BACK. One interception was a timing play bucket pass. Joe anticipated that throw and got in front of Steve Smith the Senior. Smith HAD TO slow down, and Joe became the receiver. And by the way, Flacco was on the money.
On the other interception, Joe was on a different receiver than the one targeted, but he crouched down and "hid" from Flacco, then pounced. But that was a bad throw by Flacco too.
5: Jamie Collins is still learning this defense and these teammates, but is already making a big impact. He is blitzing a lot more than he did in New England, and really seems to like it!
We need ten more of him.
6: These referees were dumbasses, but screwed both teams about equally. It was nice to see no Browns dumbasses lining up with their whole freaking heads in the neutral zone. So we got that goin' for us...
7: Was that Chis Collinsworth the ex-wide receiver doing the color? What was he looking at? I mean I'm not one of those who thinks he hates the Browns, but I don't think he's very good.
8: Jimmy Haslam is not going to fire Hue Jackson. Past results do not guarantee future performance. Haslam himself predicted a "several year" project, and was not running for office.
For the first time since he bought the team a short time ago, Haslam landed his first choice Head Coach: One with Head Coaching experience and a good record with a not very good team.
He also knows he'll get the Art Modell treatment by the entire fan base and every NFL pundit if he does that. You people: Haslam is not a child. He is capable of patience. Stop it.
The Browns now have a long vacation, and I assume that after giving his guys a short break, Hue will use the time to stabalize things.
Kessler can get some extra reps. They can focus more on third downs and deep passes. I still think he will whip out the Baylor offense sooner or later.
Opposing defenses (at keast the last two) have had their number. Kessler has been an efficient nickel and dime game manager, partly because Hue Jackson has schemed to play to those strengths with short and intermediate slants and crosses by the outside receivers.
The conventional answer to a West Coast is zone coverage, but Dallas and Baltimore used man on the outside and walled off the inside to Pryor and Coleman.
The receiver's adjustment is to go vertical and come back with a safety over the top, or go postal if not. Kessler has made a lot of hay with Pryor on comebacks, but these have been 8-12 yard gains.
Kessler simply hasn't been good on long throws to the perimeter, and they take too long to develop. Naturally, defenses are forcing him to do that if the Browns are to make any use of their top two offensive threats.
Kessler has actually done a fine job of finding and hitting his third options in the running backs, although I'm not sure why Barnidge isn't productive (might be blocking). But the net results are short gains. Even if a quarterback hits 70%, eventually the 30% stalls him. And the slow march eats up clock time.
I keep harping on the Baylor because the two outside receivers can runpick rub routes to get one of them inside and under leverage for slants and crosses, and the coverage guys can't press them safely.
Of course, I also imagine that during this off time, Kessler will be going deep to the edges til he gets it right. As a junior in college, he did this successfully. Those who say he can't didn't do their homework. It will never be his top skill, but he has it in him to threaten every part of the field, and once he burns somebody that way once or twice, defenses will have to quit what they're doing to stifle him now.
Now, Coleman is not Pryor, and can't be that type of deep threat. Kessler can "force" it to Pryor in traffic or over the top, because he has the size to come up with the well-placed ball.
Coleman, however, can excel from the slot, where he can't be leveraged and has a two-way go.
I know that the team isn't dispirited and won't quit. I know that Hue Jackson and his excellent veteran assistants will make the most of this extra-long off week. I know Kessler is as confident and determined as ever.
I think the Ravens were their best chance for a win, and Sashi Brown will win the first overall draft pick sweepstakes, but this offense is average at worst, and this defense has a ton of front seven talent that should show up soon.
Right now, we can point to Collins, Haden, Kirksey, and Shelton. But Ogbah and Nassib are just getting started. Ok we can call this the worst defense in the NFL based on performance. But it's by no stretch of any imagination the least talented.
Ray Horton doesn't need to make any big changes. The inexperienced players simply need to develop as they play, and stop screwing up.
...except the tackling, man! It's a fundamental skill! Don't the Browns have those robotic tackling dummies yet? Several college teams have them. Sashi if not why not? MOST of the big plays against this defense have been after missed tackles. Sometimes 3 or four missed tackles!
The Browns used to have a little 185 lb. cornerback. He'd latch onto Jerome Bettis's ankle and make like a human ball and chain. Bettis would lurch foreward and drag him along til the cavalry arrived. That's how you do it. Any way you can.
Updated w/l prediction: 6-10.
2: Stunts are really hard to pick up because they flood protection zones and happen after offensive linemen are engaged with other passrushers. Those other passrushers actually help out sometimes by not letting the blocker pull off them to get at him.
The offensive linemen often don't even see the stunter coming until it's too late, as he is running around behind another defender.
Teams don't stunt all the time because it opens up a gap, takes more time to execute, and fatigues the player. But the principle is simple: The blockers are engaged, can't see him, and if they even can get a piece of him, they are stationary and off balance, and he has momentum.
Veteran teams stunt more against inexperienced and slow-footed guards and centers. Cam Erving did about as well as could be expected. He is inexperienced. He doesn't have slow feet, but is tall.
On several of those plays, the quarterback held the ball through his first two reads. Stunts are useless against a quick release, because they take too long. Part of this was the receivers not getting open, or the quarterback not pulling the trigger on time.
Coverage on Pryor and Coleman was really good. They walled off the crossing routes.
As hard as this is, close your eyes, take a deep breath, and give Terrelle Suggs his props. I know you can do it.
3: Cody Kessler was not playing badly, and Hue Jackson wasn't punishing him. I wouldn't have replaced him, because he has engineered impressive comebacks in every game he has completed.
But I can see how Hue wanted to use Josh to screw up the Ravens' game plan and spark the team.
One unusually intelligent caller to NFL Radio compared Kessler to Colt McCoy, and expressed doubt about his becoming a real franchise guy. I hear that, but repeat: Those comebacks mean something, and people are overlooking them.
I don't know if Kessler can become elite, but as Mike Nolan said to the caller, you can count those guys on the fingers of one hand, and most NFL teams have a quarterback who is really good when he has help. This is Kessler's floor.
4: Joe Haden is BACK. One interception was a timing play bucket pass. Joe anticipated that throw and got in front of Steve Smith the Senior. Smith HAD TO slow down, and Joe became the receiver. And by the way, Flacco was on the money.
On the other interception, Joe was on a different receiver than the one targeted, but he crouched down and "hid" from Flacco, then pounced. But that was a bad throw by Flacco too.
5: Jamie Collins is still learning this defense and these teammates, but is already making a big impact. He is blitzing a lot more than he did in New England, and really seems to like it!
We need ten more of him.
6: These referees were dumbasses, but screwed both teams about equally. It was nice to see no Browns dumbasses lining up with their whole freaking heads in the neutral zone. So we got that goin' for us...
7: Was that Chis Collinsworth the ex-wide receiver doing the color? What was he looking at? I mean I'm not one of those who thinks he hates the Browns, but I don't think he's very good.
8: Jimmy Haslam is not going to fire Hue Jackson. Past results do not guarantee future performance. Haslam himself predicted a "several year" project, and was not running for office.
For the first time since he bought the team a short time ago, Haslam landed his first choice Head Coach: One with Head Coaching experience and a good record with a not very good team.
He also knows he'll get the Art Modell treatment by the entire fan base and every NFL pundit if he does that. You people: Haslam is not a child. He is capable of patience. Stop it.
The Browns now have a long vacation, and I assume that after giving his guys a short break, Hue will use the time to stabalize things.
Kessler can get some extra reps. They can focus more on third downs and deep passes. I still think he will whip out the Baylor offense sooner or later.
Opposing defenses (at keast the last two) have had their number. Kessler has been an efficient nickel and dime game manager, partly because Hue Jackson has schemed to play to those strengths with short and intermediate slants and crosses by the outside receivers.
The conventional answer to a West Coast is zone coverage, but Dallas and Baltimore used man on the outside and walled off the inside to Pryor and Coleman.
The receiver's adjustment is to go vertical and come back with a safety over the top, or go postal if not. Kessler has made a lot of hay with Pryor on comebacks, but these have been 8-12 yard gains.
Kessler simply hasn't been good on long throws to the perimeter, and they take too long to develop. Naturally, defenses are forcing him to do that if the Browns are to make any use of their top two offensive threats.
Kessler has actually done a fine job of finding and hitting his third options in the running backs, although I'm not sure why Barnidge isn't productive (might be blocking). But the net results are short gains. Even if a quarterback hits 70%, eventually the 30% stalls him. And the slow march eats up clock time.
I keep harping on the Baylor because the two outside receivers can run
Of course, I also imagine that during this off time, Kessler will be going deep to the edges til he gets it right. As a junior in college, he did this successfully. Those who say he can't didn't do their homework. It will never be his top skill, but he has it in him to threaten every part of the field, and once he burns somebody that way once or twice, defenses will have to quit what they're doing to stifle him now.
Now, Coleman is not Pryor, and can't be that type of deep threat. Kessler can "force" it to Pryor in traffic or over the top, because he has the size to come up with the well-placed ball.
Coleman, however, can excel from the slot, where he can't be leveraged and has a two-way go.
I know that the team isn't dispirited and won't quit. I know that Hue Jackson and his excellent veteran assistants will make the most of this extra-long off week. I know Kessler is as confident and determined as ever.
I think the Ravens were their best chance for a win, and Sashi Brown will win the first overall draft pick sweepstakes, but this offense is average at worst, and this defense has a ton of front seven talent that should show up soon.
Right now, we can point to Collins, Haden, Kirksey, and Shelton. But Ogbah and Nassib are just getting started. Ok we can call this the worst defense in the NFL based on performance. But it's by no stretch of any imagination the least talented.
Ray Horton doesn't need to make any big changes. The inexperienced players simply need to develop as they play, and stop screwing up.
...except the tackling, man! It's a fundamental skill! Don't the Browns have those robotic tackling dummies yet? Several college teams have them. Sashi if not why not? MOST of the big plays against this defense have been after missed tackles. Sometimes 3 or four missed tackles!
The Browns used to have a little 185 lb. cornerback. He'd latch onto Jerome Bettis's ankle and make like a human ball and chain. Bettis would lurch foreward and drag him along til the cavalry arrived. That's how you do it. Any way you can.
Updated w/l prediction: 6-10.
Saturday, November 5, 2016
Cowboys vs Browns
I think it was Zig Fercosi, but don't really care: SOMEBODY on NFL Radio picked the Browns over the Cowboys!
His rationle? Corey Coleman first, and Jamie Collins second.
I gotta say, I WANT to agree, but can't.
...well, this defense IS very T A L E N T E D, despite it's youth, and it did just add Jamie Collins, but the Cowboys might have the best offensive line and running back in football, along with Bryant and that Prescott guy as and Witten the afterthought.
But Fercosi (or whoever) did hit on this:
Corey Coleman IS "all that". Terelle Pryor has PROVEN to be a lethal weapon. Dallas can't cover both with a stacked box, and you can throw those "versus the run" stats in the garbage can.
The problem with Fercosi (or whoever's) amazing projection is that Jamie Collins won't salvage this defense all by himself.
The Browns might score lots of points. Collins might cause a turnover, or even a defensive td. But Dallas might have the best offensive line in football, and should win.
...Dammit
His rationle? Corey Coleman first, and Jamie Collins second.
I gotta say, I WANT to agree, but can't.
...well, this defense IS very T A L E N T E D, despite it's youth, and it did just add Jamie Collins, but the Cowboys might have the best offensive line and running back in football, along with Bryant and that Prescott guy as and Witten the afterthought.
But Fercosi (or whoever) did hit on this:
Corey Coleman IS "all that". Terelle Pryor has PROVEN to be a lethal weapon. Dallas can't cover both with a stacked box, and you can throw those "versus the run" stats in the garbage can.
The problem with Fercosi (or whoever's) amazing projection is that Jamie Collins won't salvage this defense all by himself.
The Browns might score lots of points. Collins might cause a turnover, or even a defensive td. But Dallas might have the best offensive line in football, and should win.
...Dammit
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Kessler, Coleman, Collins, and the Cleveland Browns
This has been done to death, but Corey Coleman's return is huge. Cody Kessler gushed about how he looked forward to a Pryor-Coleman combination, and how lucky any quarterback would be to have that weaponry.
I was looking forward to calling Gordon and Pryor the Twin Terrors, but now I need to come up with another nickname, since Coleman isn't a skyscraper like Pryor.
Cody said the two of them were "kind of the same way", but that's not quite accurate. They're both deep threats, and both can turn short passes into big plays as well, but that's where the similarity stops.
Pryor can't stop and start, or change directions like Coleman. You could line Coleman up at tailback, but not Pryor.
Coleman can't wall people off with his body, and has a much smaller catch radius.
While both can cross and slant, Coleman is the much better option there, because he can gain quick separation, and his shorter stature is no issue on those throws, as it could be on vertical routes. He is also much more "sudden" than Pryor, and can make more happen, ala Eric Metcalf.
Pryor is the prototypical deep threat, like Calvin Johnson. He is never not open, and an accurate deep pass to him is literally unstoppable, regardless of coverage.
The Cowboys and other teams will try to match up with these two based on the traits of their cornerbacks, rather than their ability. That is to say, Pryor will pull the bigger, taller one, and Coleman the shorter, quicker one (sometimes a slot corner).
Pick your poison. Both these guys are lethal, and you can only match up your top cornerback with one of them. You can only try to double cover one of them.
Coleman's presence makes at least one deep safety mandatory. If Pryor catches a slant or cross, he can be ridden toward the sidelines and then shoved out of bounds.
If Coleman catches one of those, he can blow this up by suddenly reversing his field and going vertical. One fast safety has to stay "up top", even if the quarterback is Kessler, and all he throws are short passes.
Imagine you're the defensive coordinator. Who scares you more, Pryor or Coleman? Can you EVER stack the box to stop the run? Dare you blitze?
Coleman is more significant still: Unlike Pryor, he creates separation immediately. Kessler (and it should be Kessler) can throw to him long before pressure can reach him.
There is also the looping deep timing pass to Pryor, but that's more dangerous, as it could easily be intercepted if Pryor is delayed, or merely stumbles. The quick pass to Coleman on a cross or slant is line-of-sight, lower and faster, leaving the defense with no time to react.
Last week, Josh McCown racked up a long gain by hitting Andrew Hawkins with one of these. Coleman is much taller, bigger, and faster. This play is much more hazardous for Hawkins than for Coleman, which is why they couldn't run it more often with him.
Coleman's presence makes five-man pressures much less likely for this and other reasons. He gives the quarterback more time, the running backs more room, and in general makes a defense less aggressive.
Like I said, his addition means a lot more than some fans think it means.
Now, I've read some more in-depth articles on Jamie Collins, and can start out with Lombardi again.
Mike says that Collins would have been better served as an outside linebacker rushing the passer, instead of an inside linebacker in coverage a lot.
Apparently, Bill Belichick didn't move him around much, and most certainly, how he was used had much more to do with his so-so sack statistics than I had thought.
I also hadn't known that in college, he actually spent some of his time as a passrushing defensive end.
Ray Horton will most certainly make him the "joker", and he will like it here.
That has to be part of this deal: Discussions took place ahead of the trade, not just with Lord Insideous in New England, but with Collins and his agent. Collins is coming here to be a big fish in a small pond, and to do more than he was able to do in Bill's scheme.
Collins is too effective in coverage not to use in that way, but he will most likely rush the passer more often here too. In New England, he was an inside linebacker. In Ray Horton's wilder and crazier defense, on any given down, he could show up anywhere.
Now, I heard salary projections in the 12 mil/year range for him. That sounds too high, but is far more palatable than Von Miller's 19 mil/year.
Don't assume he'll want out. He can stand out and shine with the Browns as he never could in New England. He can have more fun here. This team is embryonic now, but will improve much more quickly than the uninformed and superstitious anticipate.
He is already practicing against Pryor/Coleman/Barnidge and Crowell/Johnson. He is sometimes behind Shelton or outside Nassib. He will see a bright future here. He's inarticulate, but not stupid.
Dallas is going to tear this defense up. Collins can only do so much. But with Coleman and KESSLER back, this offense can tear that defense up, too.
A lot of people are expecting a blowout, but it's more likely to be a shootout. No, I don't think the Browns will win, but they'll score a bunch of points, and I'll take the over, whatever it is.
I repeat: The Browns defense sucks (a little less now), but the offense does not (less so now). Coleman is libel to score twice himself.
Now if they only had a defense...
I was looking forward to calling Gordon and Pryor the Twin Terrors, but now I need to come up with another nickname, since Coleman isn't a skyscraper like Pryor.
Cody said the two of them were "kind of the same way", but that's not quite accurate. They're both deep threats, and both can turn short passes into big plays as well, but that's where the similarity stops.
Pryor can't stop and start, or change directions like Coleman. You could line Coleman up at tailback, but not Pryor.
Coleman can't wall people off with his body, and has a much smaller catch radius.
While both can cross and slant, Coleman is the much better option there, because he can gain quick separation, and his shorter stature is no issue on those throws, as it could be on vertical routes. He is also much more "sudden" than Pryor, and can make more happen, ala Eric Metcalf.
Pryor is the prototypical deep threat, like Calvin Johnson. He is never not open, and an accurate deep pass to him is literally unstoppable, regardless of coverage.
The Cowboys and other teams will try to match up with these two based on the traits of their cornerbacks, rather than their ability. That is to say, Pryor will pull the bigger, taller one, and Coleman the shorter, quicker one (sometimes a slot corner).
Pick your poison. Both these guys are lethal, and you can only match up your top cornerback with one of them. You can only try to double cover one of them.
Coleman's presence makes at least one deep safety mandatory. If Pryor catches a slant or cross, he can be ridden toward the sidelines and then shoved out of bounds.
If Coleman catches one of those, he can blow this up by suddenly reversing his field and going vertical. One fast safety has to stay "up top", even if the quarterback is Kessler, and all he throws are short passes.
Imagine you're the defensive coordinator. Who scares you more, Pryor or Coleman? Can you EVER stack the box to stop the run? Dare you blitze?
Coleman is more significant still: Unlike Pryor, he creates separation immediately. Kessler (and it should be Kessler) can throw to him long before pressure can reach him.
There is also the looping deep timing pass to Pryor, but that's more dangerous, as it could easily be intercepted if Pryor is delayed, or merely stumbles. The quick pass to Coleman on a cross or slant is line-of-sight, lower and faster, leaving the defense with no time to react.
Last week, Josh McCown racked up a long gain by hitting Andrew Hawkins with one of these. Coleman is much taller, bigger, and faster. This play is much more hazardous for Hawkins than for Coleman, which is why they couldn't run it more often with him.
Coleman's presence makes five-man pressures much less likely for this and other reasons. He gives the quarterback more time, the running backs more room, and in general makes a defense less aggressive.
Like I said, his addition means a lot more than some fans think it means.
Now, I've read some more in-depth articles on Jamie Collins, and can start out with Lombardi again.
Mike says that Collins would have been better served as an outside linebacker rushing the passer, instead of an inside linebacker in coverage a lot.
Apparently, Bill Belichick didn't move him around much, and most certainly, how he was used had much more to do with his so-so sack statistics than I had thought.
I also hadn't known that in college, he actually spent some of his time as a passrushing defensive end.
Ray Horton will most certainly make him the "joker", and he will like it here.
That has to be part of this deal: Discussions took place ahead of the trade, not just with Lord Insideous in New England, but with Collins and his agent. Collins is coming here to be a big fish in a small pond, and to do more than he was able to do in Bill's scheme.
Collins is too effective in coverage not to use in that way, but he will most likely rush the passer more often here too. In New England, he was an inside linebacker. In Ray Horton's wilder and crazier defense, on any given down, he could show up anywhere.
Now, I heard salary projections in the 12 mil/year range for him. That sounds too high, but is far more palatable than Von Miller's 19 mil/year.
Don't assume he'll want out. He can stand out and shine with the Browns as he never could in New England. He can have more fun here. This team is embryonic now, but will improve much more quickly than the uninformed and superstitious anticipate.
He is already practicing against Pryor/Coleman/Barnidge and Crowell/Johnson. He is sometimes behind Shelton or outside Nassib. He will see a bright future here. He's inarticulate, but not stupid.
Dallas is going to tear this defense up. Collins can only do so much. But with Coleman and KESSLER back, this offense can tear that defense up, too.
A lot of people are expecting a blowout, but it's more likely to be a shootout. No, I don't think the Browns will win, but they'll score a bunch of points, and I'll take the over, whatever it is.
I repeat: The Browns defense sucks (a little less now), but the offense does not (less so now). Coleman is libel to score twice himself.
Now if they only had a defense...
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
Cleveland Browns: It's NOT ABOUT TALENT
As you will see, Jamie Collins now lacks talent. Like Kirksey, Shelton, Nassib, Ogbah, Haden, Taylor, Pryor, Crowell, Barnidge, Coleman, Johnson, etc., he is now a Cleveland Brown and the Brownnnnzzzzz...Laaaaaack....Taaallennnnnnt ohmmmmm....
Well, all of the safeties, after a promising start, are now atrocious. They are playing badly now, but it doesn't mean they're not capable of decent play. They are talented. The consensus of NFL scouts said so. They would say the same thing now.
If you told them these guys are losers, they wouldn't understand your statement. They would understand if you said they are playing like crap. There is a difference between talent and performance DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
In the last game, one halftime adjustment the Browns made at halftime was to come off man coverage and run zone. That's a logical thing to do when you have a big lead.
It didn't work. It allowed Marshall and others to get loose underneath, and Fitz to get rid of the ball quicker. Poor (that is to say BLOWN tackling) by talented but out of position players did the bulk of the damage.
If you run a zone, you have to tackle the guy where he catches it. That's why you run it! To keep everything in front of you! You concede short throws in order to stuff the run and prevent deep passes!
They blew it. Campbell, who is VERY talented, is contantly out of position.
Pryor got shut down in the second half. He screwed up a couple times, and McCown screwed up too. Does he lack talent? Duke Johnson was barely used in the second half. He's a bum, right? Barnidge likewise disappeared. Yep. No talent at tight end!
I'm confiscating the word "talent". It will be returned to you when you can prove you can use it responsibly.
Now, Jamie Collins will be one eleventh of the defense and one twenty second of the team. He should play both inside and outside. He doesn't know all the plays yet, but against the Cowboys, he can spy the quarterback and tailback. Most likely, Ray Horton will want him freelancing, as in cutting off the football wherever it's headed.
The Cowboys use a lot of read-option. Prescott is a serious running threat, and can throw accurately on the move. Some combination of Collins and Kirksey will probably try to head this off at the pass.
That's proved almost impossible for every defense Dallas has faced so far. They have a great offensive line, Des Bryant is back, and...well it just looks real bad for the homies. The Cowboys offensive under/over line ought to be around 31.
But Collins might bat a pass up in the air or sack Prescott or something. So, we got that goin for us...
Corey Coleman is cleared to practice. I don't yet know if that means he can play, but if he can, the Browns can score some points of their own against this average defense.
They'll probably need around 40, however...
Oh well the Browns are in the lead in the first overall pick tournament!
Updated w/l prediction: 8-8.
Well, all of the safeties, after a promising start, are now atrocious. They are playing badly now, but it doesn't mean they're not capable of decent play. They are talented. The consensus of NFL scouts said so. They would say the same thing now.
If you told them these guys are losers, they wouldn't understand your statement. They would understand if you said they are playing like crap. There is a difference between talent and performance DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
In the last game, one halftime adjustment the Browns made at halftime was to come off man coverage and run zone. That's a logical thing to do when you have a big lead.
It didn't work. It allowed Marshall and others to get loose underneath, and Fitz to get rid of the ball quicker. Poor (that is to say BLOWN tackling) by talented but out of position players did the bulk of the damage.
If you run a zone, you have to tackle the guy where he catches it. That's why you run it! To keep everything in front of you! You concede short throws in order to stuff the run and prevent deep passes!
They blew it. Campbell, who is VERY talented, is contantly out of position.
Pryor got shut down in the second half. He screwed up a couple times, and McCown screwed up too. Does he lack talent? Duke Johnson was barely used in the second half. He's a bum, right? Barnidge likewise disappeared. Yep. No talent at tight end!
I'm confiscating the word "talent". It will be returned to you when you can prove you can use it responsibly.
Now, Jamie Collins will be one eleventh of the defense and one twenty second of the team. He should play both inside and outside. He doesn't know all the plays yet, but against the Cowboys, he can spy the quarterback and tailback. Most likely, Ray Horton will want him freelancing, as in cutting off the football wherever it's headed.
The Cowboys use a lot of read-option. Prescott is a serious running threat, and can throw accurately on the move. Some combination of Collins and Kirksey will probably try to head this off at the pass.
That's proved almost impossible for every defense Dallas has faced so far. They have a great offensive line, Des Bryant is back, and...well it just looks real bad for the homies. The Cowboys offensive under/over line ought to be around 31.
But Collins might bat a pass up in the air or sack Prescott or something. So, we got that goin for us...
Corey Coleman is cleared to practice. I don't yet know if that means he can play, but if he can, the Browns can score some points of their own against this average defense.
They'll probably need around 40, however...
Oh well the Browns are in the lead in the first overall pick tournament!
Updated w/l prediction: 8-8.
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