In this pretty good article by Peter Smith, Pete discusses technique vs scheme:
This roster is short on experience and long on raw talent, so the coaches will have to forego the installation of any complex schemes.
Pete did a great job of finding comparisons among other coaches and teams. Notably, he pointed out how some simpler schemes have been very successful, including the Seahawks cover three.
He also mentions Baylor and Auburn (three skill players drafted by Browns plus RG3).
I'm almost afraid to do this with Peter Smith, but I have to disagree with one thing he wrote:
Ray Horton's defense is NOT complicated, especially compared to the Pettine/Ryan defense.
I can't believe this particular writer could screw up, so I have to think he was talking about Barkevious Mingo and outside linebacker in particular...or something.
Listen to the players themselves, and they'll tell you (whether in diplomatic code talk or openly) how they look forward to "just being able to play football" this season.
Indeed, a core feature of the Horton scheme is allowing players to be aggressive and rely on their instincts.
But as usual, this was an exceptional Peter Smith article. Just not perfect.
Pete's general case supports my own:
Hue Jackson will use Baylor and Chip Kelly principles to get his young whippersnappers going quickly, and introduce more complex stuff only gradually.
As Peter himself mentions, Ray Horton will also start his kindergarteners out with training wheels.
Here is another great article by Pete about the youth of the current roster. This guy is great.
I can't say the same for Ryan Rosco. This was a pretty good article predicting that EJ Bibbs would be the number two tight end.
That could well be the case, but Ryan cited how Hue loves two tight end offenses.
This is based on the personnel he was given to work with in Cincinnati. It ignores the fact that the second tight end was more often than not an offensive lineman.
Further, in drafting Seth DeValve, Hue and company told those who pay attention that Hue isn't too worried about a conventional tight end.
Also, as I wrote previously, EJ is a tad vertically challenged, and not as fast as DeValve. This writer shouldn't be writing the rookie off.
Don't get me wrong: I wouldn't bet against EJ Bibbs, and like him a lot. I think he will be on the field a lot more this season. I'm just not sure he'll be number two.
Chris Pokorney wrote a great article on the Browns running backs. He breaks down Crowell's stats into three blocks of games.
Crow started out decently, then was hideous for a long stretch, then was great for the last five games.
Chris cites a change in the blocking scheme late, and (refreshingly) suggests that blocking was (duh) a big factor overall.
I can shed light on how these stats broke down sequentially:
Despite a seemingly less effective overall run blocking scheme (ask Doug Dieken), Crowell managed 3.8 yards per carry early.
After several games, here is what happened when defensive quality control coaches showed defensive coordinators condensed Browns running plays:
"There. That was forty handoffs to Crowell. Notice anything?"
"Where are the runs to the strong side?"
"There aren't any."
"You're kidding! Really?"
"Yep."
After that, defenses shot the gaps on the left side of the offensive line regardless of down or distance. Crowell never had a chance, and the quarterbacks got pounded to mush as a bonus.
You could see it. The edge player would contain, to make sure the back couldn't bounce outside, and at least two others would shoot between tackle and center.
In the last five games, it finally dawned on Flip that it was okay to run to the strong side once in awhile, and Crow averaged 5.2 ypc. The quarterbacks also had a little more time.
This is what Hue Jackson saw the first time he scanned the game films, and why he said he was happy with the running backs he'd inherited. It's why no running backs were drafted.
I haven't been able to see a lot of tapes, and could be wrong about this:
I think that one of the blocking changes was using an offensive lineman as a blocking tight end, and scrapping the fullback.
On that topic, I had predicted more zone-blocking, but based on player comments, it sounds like at least some man-blocking (which includes pulling guards "g-power".)
Well, in Hue I trust.
Dan Lavoi (Buffalo Rumblings) wrote a piece on analytics and the Browns. It's pretty good overall. Dan tries not to make assumptions when trying to figure out how the experiment is working, but can't help being a tad myopic.
Analytics was a headline, not a mission statement. They've all said, over and over again, that analytics was only part of this. A lot of people just stopped listening after they read the headline.
Dan can't figure out why the Browns drafted Cody Kessler, when his analytics were so bad.
Well, Paul DePodesta might have wanted a different quarterback, but clearly Hue Jackson liked Kessler, and analytics be damned.
And once again, Dan reflexively declares the Browns roster AFTER the off season devoid of impact players.
Sigh.
Barnidge Coleman Johnson (Gordon/Pryor) Ogbah.
There are others who have been buried prematurely or sent to the cornfield before they even showed up:
Shelton Cooper Campbell Haden and three wide receivers.
I swear I don't know how they define "impact" or how many they think a team with only twenty two starters needs.
On offense, there is a quarterback (go ahead and deny that RG3 can't be an impact player I dare you) and five skill players. If Duke, Gary, and Cory aren't impact players, who is?
Is Gronk the only impact tight end in the NFL? How high are you raising the bar this week? First string All-Pro? Oh. Well I guess you got me there stop it just stop it.
But overall this was a very good article which provides good insight into how analytics seem to have factored into a lot of these moves.
Dan also points to the Raiders as a good model, and amen to that! Slow and steady wins the race.
Oh man Peter Smith wrote another good article on Terrell Watson, and how he should fit into this offense.
Happily, he stopped short of kicking Crowell to the curb, but he points out that Watson is 17 lbs heavier, and cites very respectable combine numbers.
Per Pete, Watson isn't cute or elusive. He is a north-south power runner.
As Pete and I have been telling you, the likeliest Browns Offense will be a spread (and I got the Baylor concepts from Peter Smith too btw).
Watson fits this extremely well, since against smaller, faster players defenses will run nickels and dimes, and be unable to safely stack the box.
This means a big sledge hammer like Watson can exploit any small seam between the tackles, and sometimes carry real momentum into the secondary (this is when the faint-hearted should close their eyes).
Pete mentions how a big power back can wear down a defense.
I'm happy to point out that Pete missed a few things:
1: As part of a two-back, he could lead-block.
2: He is 6'2", and would be an ideal max pass protector vs big blitzers and
3: He might turn out to be a decent receiver, now that he's had some time to work on that.
Smith points out the differences between the 2015 Bengals offensive scheme and the one Hue Jackson is compelled to run here.
The Bengals loaded up with big people and relied on power-blocking. The Browns will rely on outside receiving threats to create space and force lighter defenders onto the field.
It seems at first counter-intuitive, but Terrell Watson fits this offense better than he fit the Bengals'. He is the "counter-weight".
I really look forward to seeing how these coaches will mix and match these running backs!
Thursday, June 30, 2016
Monday, June 27, 2016
Hue and Ray's Swiss Army Knives
All NFL coaches love versatile players, and this goes double for Ray Horton and Hue Jackson. Fortunately, the current Browns roster has a bunch of Swiss army knives.
As I predicted 😉, Pierre Desir is being tried at safety. What that really means is that he may be used as a utility guy and play in some nickels and dimes.
While most fans have been sleeping, the Browns have loaded up on true safeties, and despite moving on from the venerable Whitten, this is a strong and deep position overall.
Desir is the tallest back end player. Though he was up and down as a second year spot starter, he did show enough as a pure corner to indicate that he can do a good job against bigger receivers who rely more on muscle than quickness.
Ogbah might not belong on this list, since it's standard procedure for an outside linebacker in this defense to sometimes put his hand on the ground.
Still, Ogbah is bigger and (especially) stronger than most, and as a defensive end needs less space.
Mingo tops this list defensively, as for now I seem to have nailed his role again. He will again cover more than the other linebackers, and might also be shifted around to rush from different angles.
Ogbah probably has this in his future, but as a rookie will probably be asked to master one position.
Schobert can play inside or outside, and early indications say that the predraft scouting reports sold him short. He has excelled in coverage.
He won't compete with the big guys at outside linebacker, but can be used all over the place and do everything.
Horton has to love this, because with these players he can screw with offenses and be unpredictable.
Offensively, it naturally starts with Duke. Nuff said.
Corey Coleman is the wide receiver version of Duke Johnson. Because of his "less than ideal" height, explosive cuts, and decent size, he can do everything a running back does.
If you peel another layer off this onion, there could be situations where Coleman will set up in the backfield while Duke lines up wide. I know that sounds stupid, but the two players are not identical, and the defender who matches up with one might not be so hot against the other. Coleman is also faster, so certain overall defenses aren't built to stop a running back with his flat-out speed.
Coleman is a freak. He happens to be a wide receiver, but could as well have played running back and been the second one off the board in his draft class.
EJ Bibbs is a Swiss army knife too. He was more or less a true tight end and H-back in college. Bad scouting aside, he was a decent in-line blocker, but primarily was a receiver who caught and ran with mostly short passes.
The undrafted free agent made the team last season off an impressive pre-season, but wasn't used much as a rookie.
Now with a season under his belt, he will again be tried at fullback.
Those who tell you that Hue Jackson wants a blocking fullback haven't done their homework or learned anything from who the Browns drafted or signed.
Like me, Hue doesn't like the idea of a one-dimensional lead-blocker. Mike Pettine tried to use Malcolm Johnson in this role.
I'm not here to inter any talented player off a poor rookie season (or because of who drafted him), but this did not work.
The defense keys a blocking fullback. He tells you where the ball is going. If he gets knocked down or stonewalled, it's over.
If an EJ Bibbs happens to line up in the backfield, they can't key him. In fact, he is more likely to be a receiver than a blocker.
He may well charge forward at the snap, but the safeties can't assume it's a run until they actually see it. That's because it might be a pass. And Bibbs will be uncovered.
When a defense sees Bibbs on the field, they have to consider him a big receiver and substitute on that basis.
Lead-blocking isn't as simple as it seems. Hue Jackson hopes he can do this, on top of everything else. If he can, he not only makes this team, but plays.
Notable: Bibbs is under 6'3". He's not like Seth Devalve. He is a compact 258 lbs, and not as fast. His size and stature are why some scouts projected him as a fullback.
Lots of people seem to think Terrell Pryor is a gimmick waiting to happen.
In reality, he's not a guy you want lining up at running back. As coaches have pointed out, it's not easy for skyscrapers like him to make hard cuts, and he's too big a target.
He can run a wildcat, or something else we can count on Hue Jackson to invent, as a quarterback. He can take an end-around and turn into an option passer. He can line up in the slot.
...okay, that will do!
Seth Devalve can play some H-Back and line up outside, so he's sort of a cut-down Swiss army knife too.
RG3 is dangerous with his legs, and Hue will exploit this, so we have to include him.
With all these tools, the Browns can be unpredictable, extra-deep, retain better special teams players, and force favorable matchups almost all the time.
Even if it were true (and it's not) that the current roster is a black hole, this team can still be insidiously diabolical and sneaky.
Sneaky, well-coached teams can beat more talented teams, especially when they can force a matchup the other team doesn't want.
Defenses are stuck with the people they have on the field in the huddle. They can adjust to a Pryor setting up in the slot and DeValve outside by simply switching where their coverage guys line up.
But this forces man instead of zone or vice-versa, puts defenders in spots where they're not experienced or comfortable, and tells the offense what they're up to.
If they don't adjust, they have a 5'8" cornerback on Terrell Pryor.
Just an example. Hue will be doing this a lot, because he has a bunch of Swiss army knives. I don't know how many games they'll win this season, but it will be fun to watch.
As I predicted 😉, Pierre Desir is being tried at safety. What that really means is that he may be used as a utility guy and play in some nickels and dimes.
While most fans have been sleeping, the Browns have loaded up on true safeties, and despite moving on from the venerable Whitten, this is a strong and deep position overall.
Desir is the tallest back end player. Though he was up and down as a second year spot starter, he did show enough as a pure corner to indicate that he can do a good job against bigger receivers who rely more on muscle than quickness.
Ogbah might not belong on this list, since it's standard procedure for an outside linebacker in this defense to sometimes put his hand on the ground.
Still, Ogbah is bigger and (especially) stronger than most, and as a defensive end needs less space.
Mingo tops this list defensively, as for now I seem to have nailed his role again. He will again cover more than the other linebackers, and might also be shifted around to rush from different angles.
Ogbah probably has this in his future, but as a rookie will probably be asked to master one position.
Schobert can play inside or outside, and early indications say that the predraft scouting reports sold him short. He has excelled in coverage.
He won't compete with the big guys at outside linebacker, but can be used all over the place and do everything.
Horton has to love this, because with these players he can screw with offenses and be unpredictable.
Offensively, it naturally starts with Duke. Nuff said.
Corey Coleman is the wide receiver version of Duke Johnson. Because of his "less than ideal" height, explosive cuts, and decent size, he can do everything a running back does.
If you peel another layer off this onion, there could be situations where Coleman will set up in the backfield while Duke lines up wide. I know that sounds stupid, but the two players are not identical, and the defender who matches up with one might not be so hot against the other. Coleman is also faster, so certain overall defenses aren't built to stop a running back with his flat-out speed.
Coleman is a freak. He happens to be a wide receiver, but could as well have played running back and been the second one off the board in his draft class.
EJ Bibbs is a Swiss army knife too. He was more or less a true tight end and H-back in college. Bad scouting aside, he was a decent in-line blocker, but primarily was a receiver who caught and ran with mostly short passes.
The undrafted free agent made the team last season off an impressive pre-season, but wasn't used much as a rookie.
Now with a season under his belt, he will again be tried at fullback.
Those who tell you that Hue Jackson wants a blocking fullback haven't done their homework or learned anything from who the Browns drafted or signed.
Like me, Hue doesn't like the idea of a one-dimensional lead-blocker. Mike Pettine tried to use Malcolm Johnson in this role.
I'm not here to inter any talented player off a poor rookie season (or because of who drafted him), but this did not work.
The defense keys a blocking fullback. He tells you where the ball is going. If he gets knocked down or stonewalled, it's over.
If an EJ Bibbs happens to line up in the backfield, they can't key him. In fact, he is more likely to be a receiver than a blocker.
He may well charge forward at the snap, but the safeties can't assume it's a run until they actually see it. That's because it might be a pass. And Bibbs will be uncovered.
When a defense sees Bibbs on the field, they have to consider him a big receiver and substitute on that basis.
Lead-blocking isn't as simple as it seems. Hue Jackson hopes he can do this, on top of everything else. If he can, he not only makes this team, but plays.
Notable: Bibbs is under 6'3". He's not like Seth Devalve. He is a compact 258 lbs, and not as fast. His size and stature are why some scouts projected him as a fullback.
Lots of people seem to think Terrell Pryor is a gimmick waiting to happen.
In reality, he's not a guy you want lining up at running back. As coaches have pointed out, it's not easy for skyscrapers like him to make hard cuts, and he's too big a target.
He can run a wildcat, or something else we can count on Hue Jackson to invent, as a quarterback. He can take an end-around and turn into an option passer. He can line up in the slot.
...okay, that will do!
Seth Devalve can play some H-Back and line up outside, so he's sort of a cut-down Swiss army knife too.
RG3 is dangerous with his legs, and Hue will exploit this, so we have to include him.
With all these tools, the Browns can be unpredictable, extra-deep, retain better special teams players, and force favorable matchups almost all the time.
Even if it were true (and it's not) that the current roster is a black hole, this team can still be insidiously diabolical and sneaky.
Sneaky, well-coached teams can beat more talented teams, especially when they can force a matchup the other team doesn't want.
Defenses are stuck with the people they have on the field in the huddle. They can adjust to a Pryor setting up in the slot and DeValve outside by simply switching where their coverage guys line up.
But this forces man instead of zone or vice-versa, puts defenders in spots where they're not experienced or comfortable, and tells the offense what they're up to.
If they don't adjust, they have a 5'8" cornerback on Terrell Pryor.
Just an example. Hue will be doing this a lot, because he has a bunch of Swiss army knives. I don't know how many games they'll win this season, but it will be fun to watch.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Hue Jackson's Rubic's Cube Offense
The Browns' offense isn't hard to figure out any more. Much of this will be redundant. I'll try to freshen in up with new details.
The first clue was signing RG3. Next was trading down and selecting, of all players, Corey Coleman first. The third was picking Seth DeValve, rather than a tight end who could block in-line. Finally, the non-selection of a blocking fullback.
More recently, another writer has reminded me of the offense Hue ran in Cincinnati. He used read-option and other non-conventional formations and plays.
The Bengals roster was loaded with talent, and Hue could have run any offense he wanted. He ran this unusual stuff when he had his pick, and Andy Dalton.
The plot thickens! Hue feels really good about RG3 in his favorite offensive system.
He split Eiffert out a lot. He ran some two tight end power offenses, but the second tight end was an offensive lineman. I love that. All my life, I never could figure out why a blocking tight end who never caught anything was considered so important. I said just quit being cute and use a tackle. I guess Hue agrees.
They chose Coleman over taller guys. Why? I think it's because Coleman can line up anywhere, including in the backfield. Also, because the fact that he ran a limited route tree didn't bother Hue as much as it did other coaches.
The other four drafted receivers (including DeValve) all have run-after-catch ability in common (and are over six feet tall). This means something.
Now, Hue inherited Duke Johnson, Gary Barnidge, and Terrell Pryor. This may well have influenced him, because Pryor and Duke can be used everywhere as well. (Yes I do believe that Hue took Pryor seriously right away.)
In reality, some of the more effective running games in the NFL are run out of three and four-wide spreads. One (or no) tight end and no fullback.
We know that Hue (and Kirby) intend to run a lot, but they didn't seem to care about in-line tight ends or fullbacks. The game is afoot!
As I've mentioned too many times already, I see the Baylor coming, because Pryor and Coleman can do that right away.
This implies four wide receivers, except it doesn't. It just means four guys who line up wide. These can include running backs or tight ends.
Who are the Browns best and most dangerous players?
Well, you have to list Corey Coleman here, then Duke and Gary and (I say Pryor).
The base personnel package should include one tight end and one running back. I believe one other guy will more often than not be a second tight end or second running back.
Hue will fool around some here. He might have a tight end in the backfield sometimes.
11 personnel means 3-wide and 21 or 12 means conventional. How different defenses, knowing how diabolically insidious and sneaky Hue is, answer this will vary.
But they're in trouble no matter what they do, because of this:
1: Duke can line up anywhere.
2: So can Coleman.
3: Pryor is too tall to be a running back, but if HE takes an end-around, you don't dare come out of coverage to stop him. He could do this 3-5 times per game.
Yes, Coleman can not only set up as a running back, but take handcuffs.
This means that a one-back can become a two-back, or an empty backfield. Defenses won't know who will line up where or what the offense will do.
Can you imagine trying to install a game plan for this offense? You have to prepare for that end-around. Then for the Baylor, a more conventional 4-wide, 3-wide, 2-back, 2 tight end, giant blocking back, read-option with a big guy or quick short guy...
Most likely, the default will be penetration and pressure. Screw RG3 up and pound him. Try to blow stuff up.
That's what DeValve and the bigger run-after-catch guys are for. That's unmistakably west coast.
That's the challenge. That has been RG3's weakness: Getting rid of the ball quickly and to the right guy.
Hue clearly believes that RG3 can do this now.
He'll never be great at this, but won't have to a whole lot. It has to be part of the offense, but needn't be the core of it.
First, Hue intends to have a strong running game. Next, some read-option and plenty of play-action (and deeper passes). Screen passes. Dumpoffs. Rollouts. End-arounds (by an NFL quarterback).
What could go wrong? Well yeah ok plenty. If the run doesn't work, play action won't. If there's too much penetration, the read option won't work. If RG3 can't execute the quick crosses and slants on time, that's going to hurt a lot.
He HAS to be able to do this. Even if it's just six or eight times a game, he has to show defenses he can burn pressure with quick, on-time, accurate short throws.
If he doesn't, they'll swarm the backfield.
But I digress: The 2016 Browns Offense will be a spread, and beyond that just too confusing and unpredictable to define.
Is that clear?
The first clue was signing RG3. Next was trading down and selecting, of all players, Corey Coleman first. The third was picking Seth DeValve, rather than a tight end who could block in-line. Finally, the non-selection of a blocking fullback.
More recently, another writer has reminded me of the offense Hue ran in Cincinnati. He used read-option and other non-conventional formations and plays.
The Bengals roster was loaded with talent, and Hue could have run any offense he wanted. He ran this unusual stuff when he had his pick, and Andy Dalton.
The plot thickens! Hue feels really good about RG3 in his favorite offensive system.
He split Eiffert out a lot. He ran some two tight end power offenses, but the second tight end was an offensive lineman. I love that. All my life, I never could figure out why a blocking tight end who never caught anything was considered so important. I said just quit being cute and use a tackle. I guess Hue agrees.
They chose Coleman over taller guys. Why? I think it's because Coleman can line up anywhere, including in the backfield. Also, because the fact that he ran a limited route tree didn't bother Hue as much as it did other coaches.
The other four drafted receivers (including DeValve) all have run-after-catch ability in common (and are over six feet tall). This means something.
Now, Hue inherited Duke Johnson, Gary Barnidge, and Terrell Pryor. This may well have influenced him, because Pryor and Duke can be used everywhere as well. (Yes I do believe that Hue took Pryor seriously right away.)
In reality, some of the more effective running games in the NFL are run out of three and four-wide spreads. One (or no) tight end and no fullback.
We know that Hue (and Kirby) intend to run a lot, but they didn't seem to care about in-line tight ends or fullbacks. The game is afoot!
As I've mentioned too many times already, I see the Baylor coming, because Pryor and Coleman can do that right away.
This implies four wide receivers, except it doesn't. It just means four guys who line up wide. These can include running backs or tight ends.
Who are the Browns best and most dangerous players?
Well, you have to list Corey Coleman here, then Duke and Gary and (I say Pryor).
The base personnel package should include one tight end and one running back. I believe one other guy will more often than not be a second tight end or second running back.
Hue will fool around some here. He might have a tight end in the backfield sometimes.
11 personnel means 3-wide and 21 or 12 means conventional. How different defenses, knowing how diabolically insidious and sneaky Hue is, answer this will vary.
But they're in trouble no matter what they do, because of this:
1: Duke can line up anywhere.
2: So can Coleman.
3: Pryor is too tall to be a running back, but if HE takes an end-around, you don't dare come out of coverage to stop him. He could do this 3-5 times per game.
Yes, Coleman can not only set up as a running back, but take handcuffs.
This means that a one-back can become a two-back, or an empty backfield. Defenses won't know who will line up where or what the offense will do.
Can you imagine trying to install a game plan for this offense? You have to prepare for that end-around. Then for the Baylor, a more conventional 4-wide, 3-wide, 2-back, 2 tight end, giant blocking back, read-option with a big guy or quick short guy...
Most likely, the default will be penetration and pressure. Screw RG3 up and pound him. Try to blow stuff up.
That's what DeValve and the bigger run-after-catch guys are for. That's unmistakably west coast.
That's the challenge. That has been RG3's weakness: Getting rid of the ball quickly and to the right guy.
Hue clearly believes that RG3 can do this now.
He'll never be great at this, but won't have to a whole lot. It has to be part of the offense, but needn't be the core of it.
First, Hue intends to have a strong running game. Next, some read-option and plenty of play-action (and deeper passes). Screen passes. Dumpoffs. Rollouts. End-arounds (by an NFL quarterback).
What could go wrong? Well yeah ok plenty. If the run doesn't work, play action won't. If there's too much penetration, the read option won't work. If RG3 can't execute the quick crosses and slants on time, that's going to hurt a lot.
He HAS to be able to do this. Even if it's just six or eight times a game, he has to show defenses he can burn pressure with quick, on-time, accurate short throws.
If he doesn't, they'll swarm the backfield.
But I digress: The 2016 Browns Offense will be a spread, and beyond that just too confusing and unpredictable to define.
Is that clear?
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Browns Offense Has Too Many "Playmakers".
With all the excitement over the Cavs championship, it's been tough to find anything to write about, except...
Weren't you shaking your head and giving up after game 4? And then when they got to game seven, weren't you expecting them to find some way to lose?
I'm still in a state of shock. I mean, this is still Cleveland, right? Right?
Anyway today I finally found some dumbassitude to annihilate. Put on your juror hat.
Pat McNanoman asked beat writers for the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals if they thought that the Browns signing RG3 was a good idea.
Nobody who says it wasn't is dumb, okay? I'm still not sure myself.
But the guy from Pittsburgh (Jeremy Fowler, who is actually an insightful and objective writer...usually) just took a stupid pill.
He was fine in wondering about whether a trade-up for Goff would have been wiser, but then he says that with the current roster, only a truly elite quarterback would have a chance anyway.
Let's see here: The problem is lack of supporting talent. So trading up for Goff might have been better than drafting Rodney Colemanfield, two offensive linemen, a tight end, and three more wide receivers.
...and now that the Browns did add a lethal playmaker and several more reliable, productive skill players to Rodney Johnsonfield, the next Browns quarterback still won't have any help.
In other words, Jeremy just assumes that not only will every new offensive player crap out, but Duke Johnson doesn't count.
And I didn't even mention Crowell or Barnidge.
Jeremy isn't an idiot, but was idiotic here.
Coley Harvey (Bengals) knows Hue Jackson well, and thinks that RG3 will work out, as Hue knows how to use him.
Coley reminded me of something I had forgotten: The system he used with Andy Dalton used read-option and other plays which suit RG3 even better. Hue won't need to change a lot.
Jamison Hensley (Ravens) was even worse than Jeremy Fowler. Once again for him Duke Johnson and Corey Coleman aren't playmakers and Barnidge doesn't exist.
Jamison is worse because he thinks there's a chance that the Browns could go winless.
That's almost impossible, since they get to play Jamison's team twice, and might sweep them, because they have MORE playmakers than the Ravens do.
And here we go again with that "playmaker" cliche. Its almost as bad as "utilize". And different people have different definitions.
Barnidge could be called one. He can't score from anywhere on the field, but again and again he comes through in the clutch, makes spectacular catches, and scores touchdowns. Are "playmakers" allowed to be reliable?
Corey Coleman hasn't proved anything yet, but isn't it pretty stupid to assume he won't? He's already one of the fastest players in the NFL and he outjumped almost everybody else too. He's a freak, and he can't be a playmaker?
Duke Johnson HAS proven something to everybody except Jamison and Jeremy, and did it as a rookie. Now he's not a playmaker either?
Rashard Higgins was a playmaker in college, as he has superb run-after-catch ability. Nobody doubts that he will contribute quickly and become a starter fairly early in his career.
Who do you need to bribe to be a playmaker? How many playmakers do you need?
Derrick Anderson went to the Pro Bowl with Edwards and a tight end. Can you name a team that has three?
In summation, what Jamison and Jeremy just said was utterly senseless garbage.
I rest my case.
Now, if you want to read a guy who thinks with his brain, try this. This guy digs deep for fantasy sleepers, and I believe pegged those on the current roster.
Peter Smith also wrote this great article projecting the futures of the Browns 2015 draft picks remaining on this roster. Without prejudice or bias.
And with great insight, as I learned some things from this article.
For one thing, Nate Orchard was matched up against little guys when he got his two sacks vs the 49ers. I've been overrating him based on unfiltered statistics.
Not that Orchard isn't a good player by any means. Pete says he still needs to work on stopping the run, but was surprisingly good in coverage.
This makes both Mingo and Ogbah stronger contenders than I'd thought.
Peter says that Erving and Shelton were both big fish in little ponds in college, and tended to just overpower opponents. They were rudely awakened by NFL competition.
He and I know that both will have been working hard on their techniques, and are being coached up. Interestingly, Pete gets into the weeds a bit in talking about ankle flexibility and strengthened glutes...I really like this writer.
Permabashers won't like this article, because Peter Smith describes some pretty good players. Even though they were drafted by Ray Farmer, who was the worst GM in the history of sports. Chuh.
And thank you, Peter, for pointing out the attack oriented Horton vs the read/react Pettine schemes! And for agreeing with me that Xavier Cooper can do a lot more this year.
So there is intelligent life among sportswriters. I am not alone.
Weren't you shaking your head and giving up after game 4? And then when they got to game seven, weren't you expecting them to find some way to lose?
I'm still in a state of shock. I mean, this is still Cleveland, right? Right?
Anyway today I finally found some dumbassitude to annihilate. Put on your juror hat.
Pat McNanoman asked beat writers for the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals if they thought that the Browns signing RG3 was a good idea.
Nobody who says it wasn't is dumb, okay? I'm still not sure myself.
But the guy from Pittsburgh (Jeremy Fowler, who is actually an insightful and objective writer...usually) just took a stupid pill.
He was fine in wondering about whether a trade-up for Goff would have been wiser, but then he says that with the current roster, only a truly elite quarterback would have a chance anyway.
Let's see here: The problem is lack of supporting talent. So trading up for Goff might have been better than drafting Rodney Colemanfield, two offensive linemen, a tight end, and three more wide receivers.
...and now that the Browns did add a lethal playmaker and several more reliable, productive skill players to Rodney Johnsonfield, the next Browns quarterback still won't have any help.
In other words, Jeremy just assumes that not only will every new offensive player crap out, but Duke Johnson doesn't count.
And I didn't even mention Crowell or Barnidge.
Jeremy isn't an idiot, but was idiotic here.
Coley Harvey (Bengals) knows Hue Jackson well, and thinks that RG3 will work out, as Hue knows how to use him.
Coley reminded me of something I had forgotten: The system he used with Andy Dalton used read-option and other plays which suit RG3 even better. Hue won't need to change a lot.
Jamison Hensley (Ravens) was even worse than Jeremy Fowler. Once again for him Duke Johnson and Corey Coleman aren't playmakers and Barnidge doesn't exist.
Jamison is worse because he thinks there's a chance that the Browns could go winless.
That's almost impossible, since they get to play Jamison's team twice, and might sweep them, because they have MORE playmakers than the Ravens do.
And here we go again with that "playmaker" cliche. Its almost as bad as "utilize". And different people have different definitions.
Barnidge could be called one. He can't score from anywhere on the field, but again and again he comes through in the clutch, makes spectacular catches, and scores touchdowns. Are "playmakers" allowed to be reliable?
Corey Coleman hasn't proved anything yet, but isn't it pretty stupid to assume he won't? He's already one of the fastest players in the NFL and he outjumped almost everybody else too. He's a freak, and he can't be a playmaker?
Duke Johnson HAS proven something to everybody except Jamison and Jeremy, and did it as a rookie. Now he's not a playmaker either?
Rashard Higgins was a playmaker in college, as he has superb run-after-catch ability. Nobody doubts that he will contribute quickly and become a starter fairly early in his career.
Who do you need to bribe to be a playmaker? How many playmakers do you need?
Derrick Anderson went to the Pro Bowl with Edwards and a tight end. Can you name a team that has three?
In summation, what Jamison and Jeremy just said was utterly senseless garbage.
I rest my case.
Now, if you want to read a guy who thinks with his brain, try this. This guy digs deep for fantasy sleepers, and I believe pegged those on the current roster.
Peter Smith also wrote this great article projecting the futures of the Browns 2015 draft picks remaining on this roster. Without prejudice or bias.
And with great insight, as I learned some things from this article.
For one thing, Nate Orchard was matched up against little guys when he got his two sacks vs the 49ers. I've been overrating him based on unfiltered statistics.
Not that Orchard isn't a good player by any means. Pete says he still needs to work on stopping the run, but was surprisingly good in coverage.
This makes both Mingo and Ogbah stronger contenders than I'd thought.
Peter says that Erving and Shelton were both big fish in little ponds in college, and tended to just overpower opponents. They were rudely awakened by NFL competition.
He and I know that both will have been working hard on their techniques, and are being coached up. Interestingly, Pete gets into the weeds a bit in talking about ankle flexibility and strengthened glutes...I really like this writer.
Permabashers won't like this article, because Peter Smith describes some pretty good players. Even though they were drafted by Ray Farmer, who was the worst GM in the history of sports. Chuh.
And thank you, Peter, for pointing out the attack oriented Horton vs the read/react Pettine schemes! And for agreeing with me that Xavier Cooper can do a lot more this year.
So there is intelligent life among sportswriters. I am not alone.
Friday, June 17, 2016
Cleveland Browns P--- Poor Punditry Corrections
First, NFL Radio's Mike Nolan (former Chiefs GM) might be the dumbest smart guy I've ever heard.
In the "Do as I say not as I do" discussion about how to build a team, he talks about giving coaches time. He listed several examples, and when he got to the Browns, he said Hue Jackson should get five years because of the terrible mess he inherits.
The mess includes Haden, Thomas, Duke, Barnidge, the two guards, Shelton, Orchard, Kruger...all the draft picks--
I'm sick of repeating all this stuff just do some freaking homework nimrod!
Five years? Really? Since the salary cap and free agency the time frame for rebuilding dropped to 2-3 years.
Special teams takes one off season. Rebuilding teams tend to draft high for at least the first two seasons, and if they draft well, they will turn up three to five contributors/eventual starters in each draft.
Systems change, and so do veteran players. Each new coach picks veteran free agents who best fit their systems to accelerate the transition.
A local writer wrote a decent article asking if Hue Jackson could fix the quarterback problem.
But he described McCown as "adequate". What a load of crap! He did what he did without a running game, Travis Benjamin as his top receiver, playing from behind and with serious injuries!
You point to his wins and losses? Aaron Rodgers wouldn't have won any more games under the same circumstances. How lazy.
And this is a Memorex Moron. He closes out by wondering if any quarterback can get it done considering the Browns lack of playmakers.
This guy reads everybody else's stuff, and won't acknowledge the existence of Corey Coleman, Duke Johnson, Gary Barnidge, Pryor/Gordon etc until somebody points them out for him.
The Patriots have Gronk, Edelman, and...umm...Ok well Denver had uh...The Steelers had Brown, that running back, and...
Wow and here I thought you needed at least five playmakers or something!
Just shut up. No no, you're done. Just go home. "Playmakers" man I'm sick of that expression. And people who write without thinking, and in cliches.
:(!@$&%¡¿%!?!!
Now THIS is a thoughtful, intelligent article. This fantasy football writer isn't kind to the homies, but I can't argue with him. The guy really did his homework and was objective. That's all I ask!
I don't like what reporters have said about how RG3 has looked, either, but hey--they saw what they saw! Okay!
Just think with your brain!
In the "Do as I say not as I do" discussion about how to build a team, he talks about giving coaches time. He listed several examples, and when he got to the Browns, he said Hue Jackson should get five years because of the terrible mess he inherits.
The mess includes Haden, Thomas, Duke, Barnidge, the two guards, Shelton, Orchard, Kruger...all the draft picks--
I'm sick of repeating all this stuff just do some freaking homework nimrod!
Five years? Really? Since the salary cap and free agency the time frame for rebuilding dropped to 2-3 years.
Special teams takes one off season. Rebuilding teams tend to draft high for at least the first two seasons, and if they draft well, they will turn up three to five contributors/eventual starters in each draft.
Systems change, and so do veteran players. Each new coach picks veteran free agents who best fit their systems to accelerate the transition.
A local writer wrote a decent article asking if Hue Jackson could fix the quarterback problem.
But he described McCown as "adequate". What a load of crap! He did what he did without a running game, Travis Benjamin as his top receiver, playing from behind and with serious injuries!
You point to his wins and losses? Aaron Rodgers wouldn't have won any more games under the same circumstances. How lazy.
And this is a Memorex Moron. He closes out by wondering if any quarterback can get it done considering the Browns lack of playmakers.
This guy reads everybody else's stuff, and won't acknowledge the existence of Corey Coleman, Duke Johnson, Gary Barnidge, Pryor/Gordon etc until somebody points them out for him.
The Patriots have Gronk, Edelman, and...umm...Ok well Denver had uh...The Steelers had Brown, that running back, and...
Wow and here I thought you needed at least five playmakers or something!
Just shut up. No no, you're done. Just go home. "Playmakers" man I'm sick of that expression. And people who write without thinking, and in cliches.
:(!@$&%¡¿%!?!!
Now THIS is a thoughtful, intelligent article. This fantasy football writer isn't kind to the homies, but I can't argue with him. The guy really did his homework and was objective. That's all I ask!
I don't like what reporters have said about how RG3 has looked, either, but hey--they saw what they saw! Okay!
Just think with your brain!
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
I Underrated the Ravens: Self-Correction
Ozzie Newsome is up there with John Elway as a nemesis for me.
In earlier blogs, I said the Ravens will suck this season. I was wrong. It takes too long to go back and delete all that stuff, so I'll just confess to being lazy and presumptuous like writers I bash and write a self-correction.
The Ravens DID lose some talent this off season, and were limited in what they could do in free agency by their cap.
But I forgot a few things, like Crockett Gilmore, and the newly acquired Ben Watson, and even Maxx Williams. Gilmore can still be a weapon. Williams and Watson are good in-line blockers. Their tight ends should be pretty good this season, and they can go two-tight end and get physical in the running game.
They got a real stud left tackle in Stanley in the first round, and he was the best run-blocker of all the left tackles, and some say the best overall too.
Happily, he isn't quite a finished product. It's possible they put him at right tackle initially, but more likely he'll go right to left, and hopefully make some early mistakes.
But then that bastid Ozzie had to go and draft OLB Corea. AND DE/OLB Bronson Kaufusi dammit! And later an interior defensive lineman who is pretty good too.
This is infuriating. Ok Correa has a few warts and needs refinement, but is an athletic freak. He might not be too much of a pain in the ass at first, but eventually will be.
Kaufusi is another story, as my regular readers know. Unlike Correa, he can immediately play defensive end in any 4-man set. He can definitely get after the quarterback, is not soft on the run, and just needs work on standing up and covering in more than a simple zone.
Fortunately, the Ravens still don't have a great wide receiver crew. Mike Wallace is a deep threat, but that's about it for him and the guy they drafted.
Kamar Aiken is turning into a lethal weapon, but if you think Gramps Smith will come back off his injury anything like he was, you are delusional.
Two of their running backs are Terrence West and Trent Richardson. I'm not laughing as hard as most of you are about this, since they now have a lot of blocking muscle, but it's still valid to question their talent at this position.
On balance, the Ravens are indeed scarier than I said they were, but not in the same zip code as the Steelers or Bengals, and still not better than the Browns either.
Ogbah is better than both their new outside linebackers, and Hassan is better than Kaufusi. The Browns wide receivers and pass-catching tight ends are better, as are both running backs...maybe the top THREE running backs.
The Browns' defensive line should be better and deeper, and the inside linebackers too.
The Browns are just LOADED at outside linebacker now, too, including one ex-Raven and Ogbah, who has none of Correa's limitations. (Suggs enters year fifteen stop it. Just stop it.)
Now I think Gilbert will emerge, Haden will be his old self, Campbell will be a stud, the Browns are eyeball deep in nickel and dime coverage guys, so the Browns secondary should also be superior.
The Ravens LOST one of the best guards in the NFL to free agency, and despite Stanley shouldn't have a better offensive line.
Notable here is Griffin and Kessler signing up with Tom House for mechanical tweakage. Neither of them needs a lot of that; they're both pretty sound.
But House isn't a football guy. I'm glad he says "rotational" as part of what the explanation for what he does.
We all think we can throw as soon as we learn how to do it, but we're wrong. We can throw harder, farther, and more accurately if we're fine-tuned.
Some of the same principles apply to boxing. Rotation is verily the key element. That's the turning of your upper body around the axis of the spine.
Where your feet are matters, and whether on your heels or toes, and certainly it's a whole-body motion beginning at your feet, but the most important part is the last part: The upper body. That's where the extra "zip" and accuracy come from.
That's also how Joe Montana or John Elway could deliver strikes while floating through the air.
Anyway, of more significance is the fact that Corey Coleman is going there with them. I'm still hoping that Pryor and the other receivers will go too, but if they work with Randy Moss I guess that's okay too.
Coleman is being really smart here. He'll develop chemistry with both RG3 and the potential future starter. House might not be a football guy, but he'll for sure have him running every route (RG3 will make sure of that).
This is significant. It matters.
The Browns wide receivers should be better, overall, than the Ravens even in game one.
Quarterback is naturally the critical thing, and we have to give Big Bird the nod here. I never said he wasn't really good--just that he's not as good as Big Ben (or those most people rate above him).
RG3+Hue Jackson is potential. Some of us dare to anticipate good things, but quarterback is way tougher to project than wide receiver (Pryor).
If you think that all Hue needs to do is exactly what Shanahan did, you're wrong, because every NFL defense has found answers to that.
However...Hue Jackson is a leader, not a follower. RG3 is actually a really smart guy, and wiser now. I can't help but think that even if RG3 isn't the sensation he was as a rookie, he will be pretty good, and can win in crunch time, with his legs if necessary.
I know that Ray Farmer and others have projected McCown as the starter. Right now he IS the best quarterback.
But Farmer was talking about Hue's "system", so ex-linebacker or no, he clearly doesn't get it. If Hue has an ideal quarterback, it's everybody else's: Andrew Luck.
But Hue can and will use anybody. RG3 was his signing, and the 6'1" Kessler was his draft pick. Andy Dalton wasn't his "type", either. He backed off on Wentz, who allegedly is.
Ray Farmer, a guy I defended extensively and will still defend, also seems incapable of long-term strategic thinking here:
He seems to think the number one thing is to win games asap. He's wrong.
The number one objective is to reach the Superbowl in 2018, or take a shot in 2017 if we're ahead of schedule.
The number two objective is winning the Division. It's NOT GOING TO HAPPEN in 2016. The PLAYERS know it, as well as the coaches and front office and all us fans.
So even if McCown gives the Browns the best chance to win game one, if it's even close RG3 will start anyway. He is younger, with more upside. If he plays well, he can be traded for a high pick, or re-signed long term.
McCown is on borrowed time. All one or two more wins in 2016 does is lower their 2017 draft picks, and guarantee that RG3 has zero trade value.
But I digress: Give the quarterback nod to Flacco, but remember the other 21 players. Despite my maia culpa, the Browns still have more talent. The Browns quarterback will not be asked to carry the team.
I don't give Harbaugh the nod over Jackson either. I know Harbaugh is a great coach, but rate Jackson right there with him.
So in conclusion, I repeat: The Browns should SWEEP the Ravens in 2016, and Yoda needs to move to Baltimore and tell those fans to curb their enthusiasm.
In earlier blogs, I said the Ravens will suck this season. I was wrong. It takes too long to go back and delete all that stuff, so I'll just confess to being lazy and presumptuous like writers I bash and write a self-correction.
The Ravens DID lose some talent this off season, and were limited in what they could do in free agency by their cap.
But I forgot a few things, like Crockett Gilmore, and the newly acquired Ben Watson, and even Maxx Williams. Gilmore can still be a weapon. Williams and Watson are good in-line blockers. Their tight ends should be pretty good this season, and they can go two-tight end and get physical in the running game.
They got a real stud left tackle in Stanley in the first round, and he was the best run-blocker of all the left tackles, and some say the best overall too.
Happily, he isn't quite a finished product. It's possible they put him at right tackle initially, but more likely he'll go right to left, and hopefully make some early mistakes.
But then that bastid Ozzie had to go and draft OLB Corea. AND DE/OLB Bronson Kaufusi dammit! And later an interior defensive lineman who is pretty good too.
This is infuriating. Ok Correa has a few warts and needs refinement, but is an athletic freak. He might not be too much of a pain in the ass at first, but eventually will be.
Kaufusi is another story, as my regular readers know. Unlike Correa, he can immediately play defensive end in any 4-man set. He can definitely get after the quarterback, is not soft on the run, and just needs work on standing up and covering in more than a simple zone.
Fortunately, the Ravens still don't have a great wide receiver crew. Mike Wallace is a deep threat, but that's about it for him and the guy they drafted.
Kamar Aiken is turning into a lethal weapon, but if you think Gramps Smith will come back off his injury anything like he was, you are delusional.
Two of their running backs are Terrence West and Trent Richardson. I'm not laughing as hard as most of you are about this, since they now have a lot of blocking muscle, but it's still valid to question their talent at this position.
On balance, the Ravens are indeed scarier than I said they were, but not in the same zip code as the Steelers or Bengals, and still not better than the Browns either.
Ogbah is better than both their new outside linebackers, and Hassan is better than Kaufusi. The Browns wide receivers and pass-catching tight ends are better, as are both running backs...maybe the top THREE running backs.
The Browns' defensive line should be better and deeper, and the inside linebackers too.
The Browns are just LOADED at outside linebacker now, too, including one ex-Raven and Ogbah, who has none of Correa's limitations. (Suggs enters year fifteen stop it. Just stop it.)
Now I think Gilbert will emerge, Haden will be his old self, Campbell will be a stud, the Browns are eyeball deep in nickel and dime coverage guys, so the Browns secondary should also be superior.
The Ravens LOST one of the best guards in the NFL to free agency, and despite Stanley shouldn't have a better offensive line.
Notable here is Griffin and Kessler signing up with Tom House for mechanical tweakage. Neither of them needs a lot of that; they're both pretty sound.
But House isn't a football guy. I'm glad he says "rotational" as part of what the explanation for what he does.
We all think we can throw as soon as we learn how to do it, but we're wrong. We can throw harder, farther, and more accurately if we're fine-tuned.
Some of the same principles apply to boxing. Rotation is verily the key element. That's the turning of your upper body around the axis of the spine.
Where your feet are matters, and whether on your heels or toes, and certainly it's a whole-body motion beginning at your feet, but the most important part is the last part: The upper body. That's where the extra "zip" and accuracy come from.
That's also how Joe Montana or John Elway could deliver strikes while floating through the air.
Anyway, of more significance is the fact that Corey Coleman is going there with them. I'm still hoping that Pryor and the other receivers will go too, but if they work with Randy Moss I guess that's okay too.
Coleman is being really smart here. He'll develop chemistry with both RG3 and the potential future starter. House might not be a football guy, but he'll for sure have him running every route (RG3 will make sure of that).
This is significant. It matters.
The Browns wide receivers should be better, overall, than the Ravens even in game one.
Quarterback is naturally the critical thing, and we have to give Big Bird the nod here. I never said he wasn't really good--just that he's not as good as Big Ben (or those most people rate above him).
RG3+Hue Jackson is potential. Some of us dare to anticipate good things, but quarterback is way tougher to project than wide receiver (Pryor).
If you think that all Hue needs to do is exactly what Shanahan did, you're wrong, because every NFL defense has found answers to that.
However...Hue Jackson is a leader, not a follower. RG3 is actually a really smart guy, and wiser now. I can't help but think that even if RG3 isn't the sensation he was as a rookie, he will be pretty good, and can win in crunch time, with his legs if necessary.
I know that Ray Farmer and others have projected McCown as the starter. Right now he IS the best quarterback.
But Farmer was talking about Hue's "system", so ex-linebacker or no, he clearly doesn't get it. If Hue has an ideal quarterback, it's everybody else's: Andrew Luck.
But Hue can and will use anybody. RG3 was his signing, and the 6'1" Kessler was his draft pick. Andy Dalton wasn't his "type", either. He backed off on Wentz, who allegedly is.
Ray Farmer, a guy I defended extensively and will still defend, also seems incapable of long-term strategic thinking here:
He seems to think the number one thing is to win games asap. He's wrong.
The number one objective is to reach the Superbowl in 2018, or take a shot in 2017 if we're ahead of schedule.
The number two objective is winning the Division. It's NOT GOING TO HAPPEN in 2016. The PLAYERS know it, as well as the coaches and front office and all us fans.
So even if McCown gives the Browns the best chance to win game one, if it's even close RG3 will start anyway. He is younger, with more upside. If he plays well, he can be traded for a high pick, or re-signed long term.
McCown is on borrowed time. All one or two more wins in 2016 does is lower their 2017 draft picks, and guarantee that RG3 has zero trade value.
But I digress: Give the quarterback nod to Flacco, but remember the other 21 players. Despite my maia culpa, the Browns still have more talent. The Browns quarterback will not be asked to carry the team.
I don't give Harbaugh the nod over Jackson either. I know Harbaugh is a great coach, but rate Jackson right there with him.
So in conclusion, I repeat: The Browns should SWEEP the Ravens in 2016, and Yoda needs to move to Baltimore and tell those fans to curb their enthusiasm.
Tuesday, June 7, 2016
What PFF Doesn't Do: Wrong About Browns Roster
Pro Football Focus is a great resource. In fact, as soon as I can afford it I might become an insider.
They are objective, unbiased, and scientific. But they have limitations.
To their credit, they adhere strictly to hard facts, and rely exclusively on NFL performance for each player.
Not being an insider, I can't study the nuts and bolts of their data. They do analyze draftable college players, and some writers use this data to project NFL performance.
But in evaluating the NFL rosters, I can't see how they could have used any of this in these rankings. I COULD BE WRONG about this, but if I am, then something else is wrong here.
They may well also have thresholds, such as minimum number of carries, targets, or snaps. Below certain numbers, data is unreliable. We've all seen our share of flashes in the pan, no? One shot wonders?
All of this is a good thing, since it removes human judgement from the process.
I speak as an analyst here: It's harder than most people think to separate their emotions and prejudices from the subject. Most analyses are unavoidably corrupted by subjectivity to some degree.
This is why the intelligence community filters estimates through fresh eyes, and cross-checks it against other assigned estimates and sources (when it's possible and not time-sensitive).
So yeah, I'm singing PFF's praises here, absolutely. I do think that some of their writers don't understand this as well as they should, but even they are pretty good overall.
What they filter out is what makes all their pre-season roster rankings suspect. It excludes (I think) all players who have not played a certain number of downs in the NFL.
It does consider system (ie zone vs man blocking, down position vs standing up, man, off-man, zone coverage, etc.) which is really excellent and thorough. But it can't consider how new coaches are likely to use the player. Nor how a young player can reasonably be expected to have improved over an off season.
This is why human minds are still necessary.
With all that said, I will now disassemble the Browns 31st roster ranking, and give Black Cloud a more realistic picture of where the homies stand:
Wide receiver first: The holdovers are Taylor Gabriel, Darius Jennings, Hawkins, Moore, and Pryor. I'm not sure ANY of these guys met a minimum threshold for PFF (which I assume was at least weighting 2016 heavily--recency being a key factor).
It's just possible that PFF had NO usable data for this position. The default there should be maybe the 40th percentile, or a little below average (at least that's how I'd set it up).
That's because the dearth of data implies inexperience, and inexperience implies mistakes and confusion (remember, they've got 32 teams to consider, so they need the most sensible uniform standards).
Well, of course that's ridiculous (though like I just said I don't blame them. Maybe I should HINT write for HINT them HINT HINT).
If they used Pryor at all, he'd rank around zero based on 2015. It's possible Jennings or Gabriel snuck in, but Gabriel was horrible. Jennings played well, however.
The reality, however, is that Pryor was very raw, and I believe in his four non-catches screwed up every way he could have (leaving the ground unnecessarily, not reaching forward for the ball, etc). He can be reasonably expected to have corrected these faults. Whether or not he actually starts, he will be a LOT better.
Some of the PFF writers will grin knowingly and shake their much wiser and more objective heads when they read that, but they're usually not real analysts. This is all pretty predictable.
Hawkins (if not traded or released) is a very reliable slot guy who has succeeded outside as well. His concussions scare the hell out of me, though, and he relies heavily on quickness and speed, which age will take from him first.
Marlon Moore has been around a long time, and is unlikely to do much.
Aside from Pryor (who towers over cornerbacks and will be BETTER when the pads go on), the four new guys (excluding two UFDAs) probably were not considered by PFF.
Coleman was one of the top two in the draft. He is the fastest and quickest, and a big-play guy in spades. That's not debatable.
Higgins and Payton were both rated higher than when they were taken and are tall, reliable, accomplished possession guys.
The PFF software did it's job, but no actually analytical human brain could rank the talent here in 2016 as below average. That's 16th.
Gary Barnidge is a top five receiving tight end, but I suspect that PFF penalized him for his sub-par in-line blocking, and didn't consider Seth DeValve at all.
There's no way, however, that PFF itself didn't rank TE in the top ten.
PFF seemed to recognize the existence of Greco and Bitonio as well as Thomas. They probably took Cameron Erving's season-long statistics and ranked him as one of the worst centers in the NFL.
I don't know what they did at right tackle. If they used the current frontrunner, ex-Seahawk Alvin Bailey, he'd show poorly based on his stats as well...as would Bowie. But for both these guys, a zone scheme without DeFellipo tinkering would help, along with the fact that both are entering their primes for developmental offensive linemen.
If PFF ignored depth, and allowed center and right tackle to drag this offensive line into the bottom ten, they need to fix something, since the left tackle and both guards should establish a beachhead in the top ten.
If the offensive line ranked below 16th or 18th, they need to tweak their software.
Can't say the same about quarterback. Their program had no choice but to rank the Browns group at or near the bottom.
I am personally optimistic about RG3 under Hue Jackson, a couple years older and wiser, and with these weapons, but can't predict this like I predicted Pryor as one of the top three receivers.
I like McCown a lot, but he is old and injured, and PFF isn't kind to him either (they can't quite fit crappy defense, limited targets, and no running game into their broader stats).
To review, for the offense, my adjusted rankings are wr 16, te 10, oline 17, qb...28. Running back? Well, PFF probably took season long statistics, which hurt Crowell a lot.
Actually (broken record here) he was his old terrific self in the last five games when he was allowed to run to both sides of the field and experienced actual daylight for once. The season long stuff might have hurt Duke too, but I don't know how he did from scrimmage in that stretch.
I imagine PFF ranked running back below 18th despite Duke's outstanding performance catching passes. Really, 15th is pessimistic.
So should a super bad QB ranking pull an overall average offensive ranking into the toilet? Well, PFF might weight QB and offensive line heaviest and heavier respectively (I would), but no: there's simply no way to rank the offense overall below 20.
Those who will disagree with me will do so on the bases of Pryor, Erving, right tackle, and Crowell. I respect that. We'll just have to see who is wrong. I'll bet you all a beer. I expect to drink for free the rest of my life.
Defensively, I just have to generalize more here:
I like Mike Pettine (and won't scapegoat his DC like Grossi does), but here's what I've determined went wrong last season:
In 2014, Pettine installed Ryan 1.0; the simplest version of the Rubics Cube Ryan defense. That's when/why they brought in old hands Dansby, Whitten, Tramon Williams, and that defensive lineman. Haden and Gipson remained fairly healthy. The defense in general was fairly experienced.
In 2015, the dastardly Ray Farmer landed Danny Shelton, Nate Orchard, X Cooper, and other ROOKIE defensive players who earned playing time.
But Mike still installed Rubic 2.0. Gipson and Haden went down. But when Gipson was healthy, he was playing strong safety. And Paul Kruger was in coverage on most snaps look I'm sorry this was just plain dumb ok?
The front line roster started out younger, and got younger yet due to injuries. A lot of guys were standing there not sure what to do.
PFF may have ranked the defense in the basement, but that too is ridiculous since it was hurt by inexperience, scheme, coaching, and an offense that couldn't keep them off the field and wore them down.
Did they consider Ogbah, Hassan, Wright, Schoebert, and Kindred? Clearly not Wright or Schoebert, as they ranked inside linebacker at the bottom.
Joe Haden sucked last season even when healthy, but should be fine now (still young). The young players will predictably improve with experience in a simpler, player-friendly system. The rookies with great instincts will be allowed to PLAY fast without pondering chess moves.
My own prediction has Gilbert starting opposite Haden and a top ten secondary.
In fact, I can't find any unit on the defense which isn't in the top ten.
Tramon Williams could be released, but because he's big and tall could be retained for outside depth and guidance.
Wright and Schoebert will immediately challenge the veterans inside, and whoever wins will have to be good.
This is about talent/ability more than statistics. I project. I'm accused of optimism, and have pled guilty of it in the past. But I do have REASONS for projecting Pryor, RG3, and Gilbert as I do...and Wright, Schoebert, Hassan, etc.
Down the road, this almost certainly won't pan out as I project it will. That's because if an offense has to come from behind a lot, the quarterback will get sacked and throw more interceptions, and not run much. The defense will wear down and surrender more yards on the ground.
PFF can't factor all this in, and it skewed some of the stats they used from last season.
In conclusion, the 2015 Browns have ABOVE AVERAGE overall talent. How this will bear out is wildly unpredictable, given 26-30 rookies on the current roster, general inexperience, RG3, the Steelers and Bengals, new systems, injuries etc etc etc.
Some of you are laughing at me now, but will believe me by the time PFF ranks the rosters after game 12.
Now on Las Vegas predicting 0-16: Oddsmakers predict public sentiment. They make their money off the vig. They expect the Browns to be underdogs in every game, period.
Me? I expect to exploit this.
They are objective, unbiased, and scientific. But they have limitations.
To their credit, they adhere strictly to hard facts, and rely exclusively on NFL performance for each player.
Not being an insider, I can't study the nuts and bolts of their data. They do analyze draftable college players, and some writers use this data to project NFL performance.
But in evaluating the NFL rosters, I can't see how they could have used any of this in these rankings. I COULD BE WRONG about this, but if I am, then something else is wrong here.
They may well also have thresholds, such as minimum number of carries, targets, or snaps. Below certain numbers, data is unreliable. We've all seen our share of flashes in the pan, no? One shot wonders?
All of this is a good thing, since it removes human judgement from the process.
I speak as an analyst here: It's harder than most people think to separate their emotions and prejudices from the subject. Most analyses are unavoidably corrupted by subjectivity to some degree.
This is why the intelligence community filters estimates through fresh eyes, and cross-checks it against other assigned estimates and sources (when it's possible and not time-sensitive).
So yeah, I'm singing PFF's praises here, absolutely. I do think that some of their writers don't understand this as well as they should, but even they are pretty good overall.
What they filter out is what makes all their pre-season roster rankings suspect. It excludes (I think) all players who have not played a certain number of downs in the NFL.
It does consider system (ie zone vs man blocking, down position vs standing up, man, off-man, zone coverage, etc.) which is really excellent and thorough. But it can't consider how new coaches are likely to use the player. Nor how a young player can reasonably be expected to have improved over an off season.
This is why human minds are still necessary.
With all that said, I will now disassemble the Browns 31st roster ranking, and give Black Cloud a more realistic picture of where the homies stand:
Wide receiver first: The holdovers are Taylor Gabriel, Darius Jennings, Hawkins, Moore, and Pryor. I'm not sure ANY of these guys met a minimum threshold for PFF (which I assume was at least weighting 2016 heavily--recency being a key factor).
It's just possible that PFF had NO usable data for this position. The default there should be maybe the 40th percentile, or a little below average (at least that's how I'd set it up).
That's because the dearth of data implies inexperience, and inexperience implies mistakes and confusion (remember, they've got 32 teams to consider, so they need the most sensible uniform standards).
Well, of course that's ridiculous (though like I just said I don't blame them. Maybe I should HINT write for HINT them HINT HINT).
If they used Pryor at all, he'd rank around zero based on 2015. It's possible Jennings or Gabriel snuck in, but Gabriel was horrible. Jennings played well, however.
The reality, however, is that Pryor was very raw, and I believe in his four non-catches screwed up every way he could have (leaving the ground unnecessarily, not reaching forward for the ball, etc). He can be reasonably expected to have corrected these faults. Whether or not he actually starts, he will be a LOT better.
Some of the PFF writers will grin knowingly and shake their much wiser and more objective heads when they read that, but they're usually not real analysts. This is all pretty predictable.
Hawkins (if not traded or released) is a very reliable slot guy who has succeeded outside as well. His concussions scare the hell out of me, though, and he relies heavily on quickness and speed, which age will take from him first.
Marlon Moore has been around a long time, and is unlikely to do much.
Aside from Pryor (who towers over cornerbacks and will be BETTER when the pads go on), the four new guys (excluding two UFDAs) probably were not considered by PFF.
Coleman was one of the top two in the draft. He is the fastest and quickest, and a big-play guy in spades. That's not debatable.
Higgins and Payton were both rated higher than when they were taken and are tall, reliable, accomplished possession guys.
The PFF software did it's job, but no actually analytical human brain could rank the talent here in 2016 as below average. That's 16th.
Gary Barnidge is a top five receiving tight end, but I suspect that PFF penalized him for his sub-par in-line blocking, and didn't consider Seth DeValve at all.
There's no way, however, that PFF itself didn't rank TE in the top ten.
PFF seemed to recognize the existence of Greco and Bitonio as well as Thomas. They probably took Cameron Erving's season-long statistics and ranked him as one of the worst centers in the NFL.
I don't know what they did at right tackle. If they used the current frontrunner, ex-Seahawk Alvin Bailey, he'd show poorly based on his stats as well...as would Bowie. But for both these guys, a zone scheme without DeFellipo tinkering would help, along with the fact that both are entering their primes for developmental offensive linemen.
If PFF ignored depth, and allowed center and right tackle to drag this offensive line into the bottom ten, they need to fix something, since the left tackle and both guards should establish a beachhead in the top ten.
If the offensive line ranked below 16th or 18th, they need to tweak their software.
Can't say the same about quarterback. Their program had no choice but to rank the Browns group at or near the bottom.
I am personally optimistic about RG3 under Hue Jackson, a couple years older and wiser, and with these weapons, but can't predict this like I predicted Pryor as one of the top three receivers.
I like McCown a lot, but he is old and injured, and PFF isn't kind to him either (they can't quite fit crappy defense, limited targets, and no running game into their broader stats).
To review, for the offense, my adjusted rankings are wr 16, te 10, oline 17, qb...28. Running back? Well, PFF probably took season long statistics, which hurt Crowell a lot.
Actually (broken record here) he was his old terrific self in the last five games when he was allowed to run to both sides of the field and experienced actual daylight for once. The season long stuff might have hurt Duke too, but I don't know how he did from scrimmage in that stretch.
I imagine PFF ranked running back below 18th despite Duke's outstanding performance catching passes. Really, 15th is pessimistic.
So should a super bad QB ranking pull an overall average offensive ranking into the toilet? Well, PFF might weight QB and offensive line heaviest and heavier respectively (I would), but no: there's simply no way to rank the offense overall below 20.
Those who will disagree with me will do so on the bases of Pryor, Erving, right tackle, and Crowell. I respect that. We'll just have to see who is wrong. I'll bet you all a beer. I expect to drink for free the rest of my life.
Defensively, I just have to generalize more here:
I like Mike Pettine (and won't scapegoat his DC like Grossi does), but here's what I've determined went wrong last season:
In 2014, Pettine installed Ryan 1.0; the simplest version of the Rubics Cube Ryan defense. That's when/why they brought in old hands Dansby, Whitten, Tramon Williams, and that defensive lineman. Haden and Gipson remained fairly healthy. The defense in general was fairly experienced.
In 2015, the dastardly Ray Farmer landed Danny Shelton, Nate Orchard, X Cooper, and other ROOKIE defensive players who earned playing time.
But Mike still installed Rubic 2.0. Gipson and Haden went down. But when Gipson was healthy, he was playing strong safety. And Paul Kruger was in coverage on most snaps look I'm sorry this was just plain dumb ok?
The front line roster started out younger, and got younger yet due to injuries. A lot of guys were standing there not sure what to do.
PFF may have ranked the defense in the basement, but that too is ridiculous since it was hurt by inexperience, scheme, coaching, and an offense that couldn't keep them off the field and wore them down.
Did they consider Ogbah, Hassan, Wright, Schoebert, and Kindred? Clearly not Wright or Schoebert, as they ranked inside linebacker at the bottom.
Joe Haden sucked last season even when healthy, but should be fine now (still young). The young players will predictably improve with experience in a simpler, player-friendly system. The rookies with great instincts will be allowed to PLAY fast without pondering chess moves.
My own prediction has Gilbert starting opposite Haden and a top ten secondary.
In fact, I can't find any unit on the defense which isn't in the top ten.
Tramon Williams could be released, but because he's big and tall could be retained for outside depth and guidance.
Wright and Schoebert will immediately challenge the veterans inside, and whoever wins will have to be good.
This is about talent/ability more than statistics. I project. I'm accused of optimism, and have pled guilty of it in the past. But I do have REASONS for projecting Pryor, RG3, and Gilbert as I do...and Wright, Schoebert, Hassan, etc.
Down the road, this almost certainly won't pan out as I project it will. That's because if an offense has to come from behind a lot, the quarterback will get sacked and throw more interceptions, and not run much. The defense will wear down and surrender more yards on the ground.
PFF can't factor all this in, and it skewed some of the stats they used from last season.
In conclusion, the 2015 Browns have ABOVE AVERAGE overall talent. How this will bear out is wildly unpredictable, given 26-30 rookies on the current roster, general inexperience, RG3, the Steelers and Bengals, new systems, injuries etc etc etc.
Some of you are laughing at me now, but will believe me by the time PFF ranks the rosters after game 12.
Now on Las Vegas predicting 0-16: Oddsmakers predict public sentiment. They make their money off the vig. They expect the Browns to be underdogs in every game, period.
Me? I expect to exploit this.
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