Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Browns Stuff Again

First off, when you are driving and only have one hand free, all you can do with an out-of-control girlfriend is use your right hand.  It will always look like a punch, whether it is or not.  It will tend to look more like a punch if she is trying to throw your wallet out the window.

I don't have all the details yet, but have heard from the girlfriend in question, and feel I can confidently repeat: BIG FREAKING DEAL.

Casey Drottar this time wrote a thoughtful and rational article on the upcoming game vs the Rams.  He predicts a 10-point Browns loss.  I feel it will be closer, but can't knock the guy this time.

Casey expects Gurley to run all over the Browns all day.  How can I argue with that?  Week after week, I half expect the missed tackles, overpursuit, and general screwups against the run to at least diminish in number, and then watch them make every running back look like AP again.

And it kills me.  Break it down by quarters, and you see: They usually DO stop the run early in games, and remain fairly stout between the tackles.

But then ONE GUY is out of position or blows a tackle, and it's off to the races.  Nobody else ever seems to be around.

Gurley is a real scary guy, with the speed to bounce outside.  If I were a running back against this team, my favorite thing would be running right up to my blockers backs inside, then scooting around the wide open edge when the contain guys take the bait every single time.

Another weakness I've seen is the cutback on the strong side.  
Not sure how it happens without watching films, but I know that part of it is the right tackle walling off the DE and then not budging a freaking inch.  I have no idea how they make the inside or middle linebacker cease to exist, but assume some combination of a blitzes and a blocking tight end are involved.  At any rate, the gap is the size of the Grand Canyon.

But I do think Casey is a bit too pessimistic. Those who think the Denver defense revealed the "real McCown" don't get it.  It was DENVER's defense.  This is the RAM's defense.  There is a difference.

I was shocked that I was right about Benjamin.  How so?  Read my previous posts, dammit!

Ok I mean that the microbes can screw up the bigger cornerbacks (it's alllivve!)

And this part of Flip's offense is in its early stages.  I haven't even checked out the Rams' starting one and two cornerbacks yet, but I know they're not used to microbes.

I know that Denver contained Barnidge (except for those two touchdowns), so is he off the map now, really?

So yes, the Rams offense and Gurley can score some points on this Keystone Kop defense, but the Browns can hit back.

Nick Foles is a fine quarterback, but accuracy isn't his best asset, and he's not very mobile.  The key reason Chip Kelly traded him for Sam Bradford was accuracy.  (Still say that was a dumbass trade on his part).

Even if Haden or Gipson can't make this party, Foles won't have big windows here, and probably won't out-do even Gramps Manning.

If they rely heavily on Gurley and the run, even the Browns can put him in second and third and longs and blitze.

I admit, Foles could still burn the Browns deep, and (to my amazement and chagrin) will have the freaking time to do so, but not on every third and long.

Let Gurley have his 150 yards.  As long as it takes him 30 or more rushes to get there.  As long as there are a few rushes for less than 3 yards sprinkled in there.  

Tony Grossi made a good point on the Red Zone:  Teams that are good against the run tend to also be good at the run.  The offense practices it more, so the defense practices against it more.

Maybe DeFellipo, in installing his new offense, has focused more on the much more complex passing game in order to get his new quarterback and young running backs and wide receivers on the same page.

Maybe this week, after seeing how he did against the best defense in the NFL, they'll commit more time to the run game (as in handoffs, not dink-passes).

With Duke Johnson maybe out and just big backs, there's a good chance of that.

Yeah I know.  I'm reaching.  But the best analysts reach sometimes.  As long as you know you're rationalizing and keep it in context, it can help you dig up stuff you otherwise wouldn't.

Anyway if I'm wrong it's all Grossi's fault. 

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