Monday, October 26, 2015

Start Johnny Manziel Now.

In this Article by Aaron Ferguson, the writer makes a good case for letting Johnny take the reigns next week.

Unlike Aaron, I don't consider McCown's performance vs the Rams "dreadful", and can't cite it as a justification for this move.

In fact, Josh McCown, despite the mistakes he made against the Broncos, has surprised me with his latter-day renaissance.  He's a cut above Foles and Bradford.  Nor was Johnny's brief stint against a prevent defense all that impressive.

But they've lost five games now.  There is little chance for a playoff berth this season.  Just in the AFC North, the Steelers are about to get Big Ben back, and have pulled ahead behind guys named Joe.

Some coaches make otherwise questionable quarterback moves just for a "spark".

Mike Pettine, I fear, will stick with Josh until the math conclusively rules the playoffs out before he'll consider it.

After all, in reality McCown has been pretty good overall, and Manziel hasn't done better-the two deep passes notwithstanding.

But we've all seen his dramatic improvements.  A few weeks ago, I was with Mike: Keep Josh in there.  Give Johnny more time to master the offense.  He's still almost a rookie.  He will get fooled and make mistakes.  Letting him watch and learn awhile longer will only help.

But now the Browns have nine games left to play in 2015.  Give Johnny those nine games to show us if the Browns really do still need a franchise quarterback, and to prepare him for a serious playoff run next season.

Rich Gannon, Pat Kirwan and others say that a quarterback typically needs 26 or so starts before he is truly comfortable.  That's before the coaches really know what he'll become in time.

One exception was Aaron Rodgers, who spent years on the bench.  Another was RG3, who now appears to have been the product of a system.  Luck and Wilson both had a ton of college starts in pro-style systems.  So don't argue.

The Browns can't get Johnny 24 starts by next season, but can, at least, get a fairly good idea of both his current development and his upside.

Beyond winning one or two more games...or fewer games, Mike...what purpose will be served by letting Gramps get beat up more?

And yes, they might win games with Johnny that they wouldn't with Josh.  Flip says he has some things prepared uniquely for Johnny.  This wouldn't be quite the same offense.

It no longer needs to be as simple as the one the Redskins initially used to help RG3 out as a rookie, but could certainly use some half-field reads off rollouts and such.

Manziel can do things McCown can't.  Handled carefully, letting Manziel take over now is far from an admission of failure or a forfeit.

Johnny Manziel has magic.  It hasn't disappeared.  It's built into him, and shines brightest when things look dimmest.

He will learn to read things better and all that.  But on the bottom line, he has this...magic.

Give him the ball, Mike.  You might be pleasantly surprised.

Friday, October 23, 2015

Comments on Comments: Browns v Rams

I've been near Cleveland for an unusually long time this week, and had the chance to watch "The Red Zone" with Andre Knott and another show with Donovan, Diek, and Grossi.

Overall I like and respect all these guys, and it's hard to find much to disagree with.

Oh, I managed, of course:

Andre has inflated the latest Johnny incident.  That's fine.  This Petrak reporter guy called in as an eye-witness to his reckless driving, and I believe him. So Johnny is still a kid in some ways, and needs to drive like a normal adult.  Ok.

Still, I'm tired of this.  When did the NFL mutate into the priesthood?  

I partied a lot at/beyond his age, but never drove like a maniac.  My brothers did, though.  So I guess my whole family should be burning in hell or something give me a break.

I do not believe he ever struck her either.  Something was wrong with her, and I heard the 911 call.  The only marks on her body were on her left forearm.  That's when Manziel prevented her from jumping out of the speeding car.

Unlike most of you, I put myself in his place.  For her part, she went nuts.  When the cops showed up she thought it'd be her vs Johnny, and didn't remember clearly anyway.  The default here is "he hit me".

Ask her NOW.  Dammit.

But I digress: Andre feels that Johnny can't be the guy because he's too small.  He also doubted that Johnny has the arm for winter in Ohio.

And I'm sorry, Andre, but you are sooo wrong!  Side-by-side I give you brees/wilson/sipe-give me a minute I'll find several more...Young, Montana, Staubach, and Rodgers are less than two inches taller.  He's about six feet the COMBINE says that!  

Andre is delusional here.  Says he can look Johnny in the eye and he's 5'8".  So I guess Andre would get taller at the combine too.

Check the heels on your shoes, Andre.

As for the arm stuff, I don't know what Andre has been looking at.  Johnny Manziel has one of the stronger arms in the NFL.  If McCown's is stronger, it can't be by much.  And yes, I do mean ripping it to the sidelines too:  ALL the throws.

Andre Knott could still end up being right about Johnny.  That's why I can't call him a dumbass YET.

Somebody else (might have been Andre!) wondered if DeFellipo might have screwed up the run game a little himself with the tweaks he brought to the zone-blocking scheme. (This just in: it was Doug Dieken).

This is first and foremost a finesse offensive line.  These are not the "hogs" here.  In this case, maybe Flip should have left Shanahan's run-blocking scheme alone.

I honestly don't know.  I mean, the center through rt are capable drive-blockers, but Bitonio and Thomas are more athletic.

In this wfny Round table, several writers tried to strategize against the Rams.

Defensively, do you stack the box to stop Gurley and dare Foles to burn you, or do you attack Foles and concede Gurley's inevitable gashes and yards?

The smartest guy (I know he's the smartest because he agrees with my humble self) says attack period.

This is how opposing defenses attack the Browns.  They blitze inside.  (Most often it's between Bitonio and Mack).

These are "run" blitzes, mostly, with linebackers.  But let's keep this simple for a change: A defender in your backfield is a defender in your backfield, ok?  If he sees its a pass instead of a run, he is still allowed to sack the quarterback.  Ok?

Nick Foles is NOT a crappy quarterback, as everybody on this round table agreed he is.  But his own receivers are smurfs too, and he's not accurate enough to hit them in tight windows like McCown is.

He CAN absolutely burn you deep if a smurf like Austin gets a step or two on somebody and a safety isn't in front of him.

He can shake off tackles.  He's not really mobile, but not a statue either.

The Browns should rely on four defensive backs to hold the deep fort, and send 5-6 bigger people more often than not.

It's not that simple, of course: on first and ten you might stack up and just send four.

If you have a good idea that it's a handoff to Gurley and to which side, you send a blitze where it has the best chance of blowing it up in the backfield.  Ditto second and less than seven.

Second or third and long? Six or even seven. It's Nick Foles, and you might nail Gurley before he can make a move!

All of the guys in this roundtable agreed that the Rams have more upside, mostly because of Gurley.

NONE of them see Johnny as a potential franchise qb, and this is why I think they're wrong.

They have likewise written Gilbert off.  I'm kind of tired of this, too:

If Joe Haden had had studs in front of him, he wouldn't have started as soon as he did.  As it was, he started game one, and got toasted right and left.  Some ignoramusses were already declaring him a bust.

It took him several starts to get his feet under him.  Even then, his rookie season was mediocre.

Gilbert screwed up, ok.  But Skrine was just plain better, and there was no need to rush him.

Now Desir has passed him up...but...we should bash Farmer because his lower round draft pick has outdone him?  And Gilbert is all done six games into his second season?

God I love this distorted alleged logic!

But I digress:  Close call, but IF IF IF I'm right about Johnny, the Browns have more upside than the Rams.

They should also beat the Rams.  By a little as-is, or by a lot if they get their heads out this week.

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Browns Don't Get No Resp...Wait a Minute!

While in Cleveland itself, nothing short of knocking off undefeated teams is acceptable, there has been a positive shift in the national view.

Frankly these NFL Power Rankings (Dawgs by Nature) shocked me.  Screw the two rags that ranked the homies 26 and 27; the rest were pretty fair, and ranked the Browns where I would.

That's near the top of the bottom third.  Oh, I'm sorry.  Not good enough/buncha bums kill em all...

Thanks to Eric Sezczepinski (wow) I now know that more of McCown's crappy day was more his fault than I'd thought.  Eric showed some bad decisions he made that were pivotal.

But rather than bailing on Josh after his first bad game, this tells me how close the Browns were to winning that game.

Eric showed two plays that would have been touchdowns if McCown had made the correct reads.

The national guys made the objective read here, and some upgraded the Browns on that basis.

You expect a quarterback to repeat what he's done three or more times recently; that outweighs one bad game.

Even with the dumbassitude he displayed against the best defense in the NFL, he still didn't totally suck.

At any rate, these power rankings tell me that the majority of the national guys are generally smarter than a lot of Browns fans.

I mean, the offensive line has underachieved.  The wide receivers are Hartline, a bunch of microbes, and some guy they should have cut before the season started regardless of his downright stupid guaranteed salary (see?  I can bash Farmer!).

The whole defense has also underachieved.  Not just vs the run, but vs the pass too.

Despite all this, if you don't live in Cleveland, you have some respect for Mike's team.

Oh there I go again: Not even the top ten? After one whole season?  Fire everybody!!!  

The Brown's are 2-4, just barely.  They "finished" vs the Ravens, then caved in in overtime vs Denver.

They're close, despite their limitations and underachievement.

The 30th or 31st percentile is nothing to celebrate, but in year two of the Farmer/Pettine regime, it's pretty much on-track, and represents progress.

Sorry I did it again: Who's got a rope!?!

But now, Eric's latest "film room" combined with the latest Manziel news, has me rethinking quarterback.

Vs Denver, Johnny might have done as well!  Maybe better.  And he deserves a reward for saving his insane girlfriend from committing suicide. (I heard the 911 call and saw the video now.)

Of course, King Roger has his nose in it now, and might well stick it to the kid.  Locals like Bill Livingston don't help.  Bill is a gifted wordsmith, but a poor football analyst.

For him, the Johnny incident represents domestic abuse, among other things, and will lead to the collapse of civilization.  Thanks Bill.  Wait til the King reads that.  Off with his head!

And no, Johnny didn't "complain" after being replaced by McCown after his two games.  He said he felt he should start, at worst.  So would any honest player.  It's an opinion.

For Bill to call that a complaint exposes his bias against the kid.

At any rate, if the Browns keep losing, it probably won't be McCown's fault.  But Johnny should step in anyway.  On those two film-room non-touchdowns, I have a feeling that Johnny would have done better.

According to Eric, who knows better than me, these weren't tough reads.  I repeat that one game won't make me turn on Josh, but Eric implied they were rookie mistakes!

Johnny's (fortunately retired) "money" sign meant he came through in the clutch.  And he did.  People called it "magic", but it's just how he's built.

He would have taken those shots vs Denver.  And he can be great.  If King Roger doesn't rationalize his way to suspending him.

Roger Goodell.  You know he's appealing the Brady suspension again?  Wonder what Livingston said about that?  Yay?



Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Browns Stuff Again

First off, when you are driving and only have one hand free, all you can do with an out-of-control girlfriend is use your right hand.  It will always look like a punch, whether it is or not.  It will tend to look more like a punch if she is trying to throw your wallet out the window.

I don't have all the details yet, but have heard from the girlfriend in question, and feel I can confidently repeat: BIG FREAKING DEAL.

Casey Drottar this time wrote a thoughtful and rational article on the upcoming game vs the Rams.  He predicts a 10-point Browns loss.  I feel it will be closer, but can't knock the guy this time.

Casey expects Gurley to run all over the Browns all day.  How can I argue with that?  Week after week, I half expect the missed tackles, overpursuit, and general screwups against the run to at least diminish in number, and then watch them make every running back look like AP again.

And it kills me.  Break it down by quarters, and you see: They usually DO stop the run early in games, and remain fairly stout between the tackles.

But then ONE GUY is out of position or blows a tackle, and it's off to the races.  Nobody else ever seems to be around.

Gurley is a real scary guy, with the speed to bounce outside.  If I were a running back against this team, my favorite thing would be running right up to my blockers backs inside, then scooting around the wide open edge when the contain guys take the bait every single time.

Another weakness I've seen is the cutback on the strong side.  
Not sure how it happens without watching films, but I know that part of it is the right tackle walling off the DE and then not budging a freaking inch.  I have no idea how they make the inside or middle linebacker cease to exist, but assume some combination of a blitzes and a blocking tight end are involved.  At any rate, the gap is the size of the Grand Canyon.

But I do think Casey is a bit too pessimistic. Those who think the Denver defense revealed the "real McCown" don't get it.  It was DENVER's defense.  This is the RAM's defense.  There is a difference.

I was shocked that I was right about Benjamin.  How so?  Read my previous posts, dammit!

Ok I mean that the microbes can screw up the bigger cornerbacks (it's alllivve!)

And this part of Flip's offense is in its early stages.  I haven't even checked out the Rams' starting one and two cornerbacks yet, but I know they're not used to microbes.

I know that Denver contained Barnidge (except for those two touchdowns), so is he off the map now, really?

So yes, the Rams offense and Gurley can score some points on this Keystone Kop defense, but the Browns can hit back.

Nick Foles is a fine quarterback, but accuracy isn't his best asset, and he's not very mobile.  The key reason Chip Kelly traded him for Sam Bradford was accuracy.  (Still say that was a dumbass trade on his part).

Even if Haden or Gipson can't make this party, Foles won't have big windows here, and probably won't out-do even Gramps Manning.

If they rely heavily on Gurley and the run, even the Browns can put him in second and third and longs and blitze.

I admit, Foles could still burn the Browns deep, and (to my amazement and chagrin) will have the freaking time to do so, but not on every third and long.

Let Gurley have his 150 yards.  As long as it takes him 30 or more rushes to get there.  As long as there are a few rushes for less than 3 yards sprinkled in there.  

Tony Grossi made a good point on the Red Zone:  Teams that are good against the run tend to also be good at the run.  The offense practices it more, so the defense practices against it more.

Maybe DeFellipo, in installing his new offense, has focused more on the much more complex passing game in order to get his new quarterback and young running backs and wide receivers on the same page.

Maybe this week, after seeing how he did against the best defense in the NFL, they'll commit more time to the run game (as in handoffs, not dink-passes).

With Duke Johnson maybe out and just big backs, there's a good chance of that.

Yeah I know.  I'm reaching.  But the best analysts reach sometimes.  As long as you know you're rationalizing and keep it in context, it can help you dig up stuff you otherwise wouldn't.

Anyway if I'm wrong it's all Grossi's fault. 

Quit Spazzing Out Cleveland

Bill Cowher started Cordell Stewart over Jim Miller and Big Ben was twice accused of rape.  For that matter he partied his brains out too.  

I drank a lot when I was Johnny's age.  Never needed rehab, and maybe he didn't either.  Ever see "Animal House"?  

The fact that he had an argument, or even that he'd tipped a couple earlier in the day, is nothing.  NOTHING.

Yet I see on this poll that two thirds of you think the Browns should cut him.  In the words of my father, what the hell is the matter with you?

Zero tolerance for what?  Living a normal life?  Take a step back and think.  THINK.  

Next time you have a couple beers with lunch, I hope I'm there with a camera.  I hope your boss is a Bible Thumper who will fire you when he sees it.  Give me a break with this insanity!

Backup, huh?  Staubach, Miller, Gannon, Brandt and others don't exactly agree with quarterback guru Bill Cowher about Johnny's limitations, and he doesn't even agree with himself about zero tolerance (and again: zero tolerance for a couple beers?  For an argument?  A speeding ticket stopitstopitstopit!)

Johnny Manziel this season has showed those with open minds, including most skeptics, great promise.  Throwing from the pocket.  Hitting second and third reads.  The rest of it he brought here with him; it's built in.

While I'm at it, Malcomb Johnson is an excellent receiver, and you don't always do what the defense expects you to do!  And the two point attempt would have sealed the win in regulation if it had been successful.

I thought it was a good idea at the time, and unlike everybody else, I haven't changed my mind just because Denver stopped it.

More on Malcomb: He is NOT just a blocker.  He was drafted because he is an excellent receiver.

As McCown said, the fact that he hasn't caught any passes for a long time (along with the apparent matchup) is why they called that play.

Some of you, wow.  I wish I could coach against you.  I'd always know exactly how to stop you, because you'd always do the most obvious possible thing.

Anyway, quit Spazzing Out.  They won't cut a potential franchise quarterback for this chicken---t.  They're not spazzes.

This just in: a great article by a Non-spazz.  Rational people see progress here.

Monday, October 19, 2015

Cleveland Browns: Under Construction

In this article by Dan Labbe, Dan suggests we shouldn't be fooled by this Browns defense.  It's still pretty bad.

So it is.  I won't repeat Dan's article, which cites how other teams have managed the Denver offense.  I'll just say I agree.

I do need to point out, however, that I have detected signs of life.  On a scale of one to ten, and taking out the Mariota game, they were a .5 until the Ravens game.  They were a one vs the Ravens, and a 1.75 vs. the Broncos.

At this rate, they'll be at least average by the end of the season!

The offense, considering this opponent, did okay.  Especially McCown, the pass-blocking, and receivers (mostly).

Once again, of course, they couldn't run the ball.  Once again, they fell behind, and it was all on McCown.

The defense certainly helped by scoring 6 points of it's own.  With the other turnovers and this in mind, it was nothing to write home about.  But this was the best defense in football, especially against the pass.

Travis Benjamin...what can you say about this guy?  Oh I know: Wow.

This proved something: This is a good offense, despite its being one-dimensional.  Flip deserves as much credit as McCown for his substituting short throws for handoffs to get the running backs the ball in space, ala Lindy Infante.

The offensive line still needs a testosterone injection run-blocking, but has improved in pass-protection.

I know that for some fans, comments like that sound like nails on a chalkboard after a loss.  You just want to say everybody sucked and should be cut or fired.

Well, the Bengals are running away with the Division.  The Steelers just managed to beat Arizona with Micheal Vick.  The Browns can pretty much kiss the playoffs good bye.

But how many of you expected the playoffs at the start of this season?  How many penciled in a win over the Denver Broncos in week 6?

Oh, they should be doing much better, given their talent.  They should be able to run the ball on anybody, get sacks and turnovers, and at least rank in the top two thirds against the run.

But whatever the Coach might say, this is still a young team not yet ready for primetime, and this season is scheduled for further construction.

No "five year plan" crap here, please.  But three years?  Yes.  2016 is the sink-or-swim year.

Screw the money though: Cut Dwayne Bowe.  Get Pryor back.  Send the offensive line to a hypnotist or something.

And Johnny.  Johnny couldn't have done better against Denver.  It's probably too early (and unjustified) to make a change here.

But at some point, he needs to get some more reps and prove guys like Bill Cowher wrong.

I don't listen to Cowher about quarterbacks.  He had Jim Miller and started Cordell Stewart.

In 2015, the Browns can still win.  My adjusted prediction: 12-4.

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Cleveland Browns: The Get Well Team

Here we go again.  Peyton Manning's offense ranks 28th in the NFL, so coming to Cleveland is his chance to silence his critics.

Yeah, Haden and Gipson are out, so Peyton will shred them.  And of course Denver will run all over this defense too.

I can't really blame anybody for expecting this.  It's pretty obvious that this entire defense has been atrocious through the first five games.

It's just that everybody expects to "get well" against the Browns, but nobody expects the Browns to ever leave intensive care themselves.

This defense last season was pretty good in the most important categories.  It was pretty obviously upgraded in the off season as well.

Hitner and others were perfectly reasonable to talk big about this year's defense, and especially this secondary.

Why is it not possible that this is finally the week that this defense stops screwing up?  Why is it always somebody else coming in here expecting the exact same suckage they saw last week?

Indeed, the Browns getting better is more likely than the reverse here.  Peyton can't run around, and despite worshipful reports to the contrary, is not as good as he has been.  

There is Rodgers and Brady.  And then there is Gramps Manning.  Just deal with that.

I'd never knock this guy.  I'm not even saying he can't still kick butt.  

But Peyton isn't the whole Denver offense, and isn't responsible for all it's problems.

Their offensive line had weaknesses even before the injury bug, and much like the Browns, they've had a hard time running the ball...

Oh I forgot!  The Brown's haven't stopped the run yet so they won't.  The Broncos will naturally run all over them.

Maybe not.  Just sayin.

Mike Hoag wrote a great article on the matchup here.  Mike thinks the Browns will lose a close, low-scoring game.  I can't argue, but it's not because of the Broncos offense.

That defense is absolutely dominating.  Maybe even historic.  I'd rather face the Seahawks than this crew.  This is the best defense, top to bottom, the Browns will face in 2015.

Mike was right about using Duke and Crow as outlet guys, and staying short.  Josh won't have time for anything else.

McCown has bought himself time with his legs, but the Broncos defenders are freaky-fast.  Even if they don't bother to contain him, they'll catch up to him before he can reset to throw.

Really, as insane as this sounds, there couldn't be a better time for the Browns running game to get well!  Tall order yes, but the Broncos are stacked more to stop the pass than the run.

As I've been saying repeatedly, this offensive line can drive people back and smash little people in space.  Our new pass-catching tight end Barnidge blocks pretty well, and under the radar the "other" Johnson, the fullback, has been working into the offense.

Some of the 2-back sets we've seen have included this bigger guy.  Many never noticed because he hasn't touched the ball yet.  But any time he's on the field, he can block.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some 22 sets vs the Broncos.  That's two backs, two tight ends.  Sometimes one of the tight ends is Cam Erving.

This is a "jumbo" run set.  The bad part is there is only one official wide receiver, but this is mitigated by Duke Johnson, who can deploy as a second one---and not necessarily on the line where he can be jammed.

Barnidge now commands respect as a receiver as well, so the Browns can do a lot out of this base-defense-demanding, unpredictable personnel set.

They can max-protect and chip and still pass.  If Wade Philips brings the house against this, you might get Benjamin single-covered between the hashes, one of the Johnsons in the flat, and another crossing behind the inside blitzers.

But in my dreams, the running game gets well here, and they actually RUN the damn ball.

I can dream, can't I?  Anyway, that's strategically how to attack this defense: Overpower it in the trenches.

I'm sure Flip will try it.  I'll be furious if, once again, I see offensive linemen stood up in space by people they outweigh by 40-plus pounds and have a running start on.

I'm sorry I forgot: Peyton.  Only the Broncos can possibly "get well" in Cleveland this Sunday.  My bad.

This just in: My comment on the Manziel thing:  Big Deal.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Cleveland Browns Stuff

Stuff others missed:

1: The Ravens were annihilated by injuries.  Even before that, Joe Flacco's contract had the predictable effect, and they had lost some top talent to the cap.

Flacco, a good offensive line, and Forsett keep them afloat, but those pundits who said the Ravens had better talent than the Browns have Stockholm syndrome.

The Browns should have beaten the Ravens by double digits.

2: What Josh McCown has done is incredible when the circumstances under which he did it are examined in detail.

The offensive line continues to massively underperform, and he has hardly ever had more than 2.5 seconds to throw. He's made several plays with people taking him down.

He's had to rally and literally carry the team on his shoulders. That's not game management.  I'm as surprised as anyone about this.

He's done it with microscopic receivers.  He has to be extremely accurate to deliver inside these much smaller catch radii, and without separation, sideline and post passes are nearly impossible.

He has no favorite target.  Everybody gets the ball.  Defenses can't key anyone.

3: Flip is great.  Throwing to the running backs offsets run blitzes.  It's a high-percentage play that short-circuits stacked fronts.  Without Flip and his scheme, the Browns and McCown would be fried.

He's now using the 2-back as I described before the season began.  It forces a base defense, then when the backs split out it spreads the defense horizontally, and renders a blitze almost suicidal.

It takes a very smart, quick-witted quarterback to make the most of this.  Flip has one.

4: Manziel is learning a LOT.  His real-game experience lets him project himself into McCown's shoes as he watches, and even to see what he sees.

On one big completion to one of the microbes, McCown stared down the barrel of a blitze and waited for the right time.  He took a shot to deliver on-time.

Johnny is much smaller, and might not be able to handle it the same way.  But he looks at these plays and figures that part out.

What he's getting the most out of is how to read things and change plays.  McCown is a true Christian, and when Johnny asks him "what did you see there that you did that?" Josh shows him on film.

By now, others see that McCown indeed gives the team it's best chance to win.  Manziel, given the extreme (and frankly ridiculous) pressure that Josh has faced could not yet have performed as well.

Privately, he is probably grateful for the chance to learn without being beaten to pulp.

5: Joe Thomas enlightened me a bit about what defenses are doing to stop the Browns.  After the Ravens game I'm upgrading the offensive line from F to D-minus.

One of the reasons McCown is looking like a Hall of Famer is because every defense is throwing the kitchen sink at the backfield and leaving guys single-covered, or sometimes not really covered at all.

The book on McCown prior to this season was that he didn't handle pressure well.  Statistically, that's irrefutable.

But now all of a sudden that's over.  I don't know what has changed, but something sure has.  Today's Josh McCown thrives on the blitze.

The kitchen sink floods the backfield and still stifles the run.

It's still a D-minus for the offensive line because Bitonio has been shoved back too often.  Defenses are targeting him, just as they target Schwartze.  Bitonio can do better.

6: The defense still gets an F, but at least they got two critical stops late...ok d-minus.  I think I felt a faint pulse.

7: Barnidge is not a fluke.  Gabriel joins Hawk and Benjamin to complete an all-microbe receiving corps.  Even Duke Johnson is sawed off.  This is unique in today's NFL.

And by the way: These are playmakers do you u n d e r s t a n d?

I have updated my database with new information.  My updated win/loss prediction is 13-3.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Baltimore Beatable by Browns

The Baltimore Ravens are in trouble due to attrition and injury.

Much is being made of Joe Flacco's historic domination of the Browns, but the teams surrounding Big Bird were a factor.

After paying Joe Flacco, Ozzie managed to hold onto a solid offensive line, and that hasn't been annihilated by injury.  They've got Joe and Justin Forsett.  But not much more on offense right now.

If Scott Solomon returns, he can move Paul Kruger back to the blind side and help out a lot by keeping Forsett inside.

As I've said, Solomon is a true linebacker.

Kruger hasn't been effective attacking from the strong side.  Solomon's return would upgrade two positions at once.

If Justin Forsett can be denied the edge, he can be stifled.  Yes, Woodhead finally sneaked through last week, but for the most part the run defense has been strong between the tackles.

If Desmond Bryant plays, that's a biggee.  Des was lighting everybody up as a passrusher.

The front seven in general has failed to generate pressure on anybody except Mariota.  It's been just infuriating.  But Kruger back on the weak side and Desmond playing could help a lot.  For that matter, Solomon himself is a good passrusher as well as run defender.

Offensively, Josh McCown has done a great job.  Yes he has.  It's called reality.

He's done this despite playing from behind with no running game, and given time best measured in nanoseconds.

As I've pointed out, the offensive line has sucked.  Not Crowell or McCown.  The offensive line needs a head extraction.  It's all their fault.  Can I make this any more clear?

Well, there's too much talent there to keep sucking like that.  They simply can't keep this up.  With Terrell Suggs also sidelined, they might get their heads out tomorrow.

Baltimore's secondary is also pretty messed up.

Superstitions and hyperbole aside, the Cleveland Browns have the Ravens outgunned and should pop this balloon.


Monday, October 5, 2015

Browns Not Good but Getting Better

The Cleveland Browns continue to underachieve.  That's right.  The talent is here, thanks to Ray Farmer.  Yes it is.  Stop it.

The offensive line, combined with a blocking scheme well-suited to it, should dominate.

The Jets and Raiders present formidable defensive fronts, so no team can dominate them, but the Browns offensive line should have done better there.

The Brown's defensive line is very talented as well, but has been pushed around too much.

Here there are some ready explanations: Aside from occasional breakthroughs, it's been solid vs the run inside, but outside the tackle box has coughed up massive yardage in big chunks.

In truth, this is more often on the outside linebackers, who are the edge-setters here, than the down linemen.

Three key defensive linemen are inexperienced.  The outside linebacker part of the pass rush has been stifled.

The problems, in fact, have been more at outside linebacker than on the line.

Nate Orchard is a rookie, Scott Solomon is injured, it's becoming evident that Barkevious Mingo will not become much more of a run defender.

So the front seven has some growth yet to accomplish.  The offensive line has no excuse.

Against the Chargers, both units showed some improvement, but San Diego's offensive line has been all but destroyed by injuries, and the Browns front should have wrecked that offense, period.

The entire offense should have functioned smoothly.  But runs still got stuffed, and McCown still got swarmed.  He made two great completions while being tackled.

The good news was that Isaiah Crowell broke some tackles, Duke Johnson emerged in a great surge, and Gary Barnidge exceeded expectations.

The offense rallied to tie the game.  It showed once again that despite pundits' opinions, this offense can come back. It doesn't quit, either.

The news wasn't all bad.  The team, overall, showed improvement.

The offensive line thing is maddening.

In this Hey Tony, written before the San Diego heartbreaker, the black helicopters, lynch mobs, and tin foil hats were in attendance.

Tony properly dismissed some of it, but tacitly endorsed some of these hysterical hallucinations.

This entry will be completed later.  After reading this article I have to take a shower now.

Ok time to feel dirty again: One guy wants to trade Manziel "in the current chaos of management and emotions"

Another guy says  "we are in year two off the farmer/pettine regime and I think it's time to move on".

Then there's the Haslam wants to lose so he can move the team and Farmer is arrogant baloney.

Here is some intelligent post-Chargers analysis by Terry Pluto.

Grossi is pretty good, but I can't see Terry letting those questions zing by like Tony did.

Terry would ask the Manziel trade guy "why?", and ask the "time to move on" guy just how long a new crew should get to establish systems and players.

I can't help but wonder if Mister "Ah say we haing em" also complains about Hair Trigger Haslam firing people all the time.

Tony talked about "proven" head coaches, and let me translate: Head Coaches that somebody else fired.

It's been a long time since Marty won 13 games and got fired.  Cowher or Gruden aren't coming back.  Every great Head Coach was an assistant first.  But that's Tony.  

Pat Kirwan, speaking specifically about Haslam and the Browns, said that a new head coach should have three years, and a veteran Head Coach should have two.

That's about right.  It goes for Farmer, too.  Look at Gilbert, Manziel, Erving, Shelton.

Johnny has already demonstrated great promise; already proven something.  Gilbert might or might not emerge as the player they envisioned, but he has to get the chance.  Erving isn't playing only because of the talent in front of him.  Shelton is already the lynchpin of the defense.  He can't stop the outside runs, but has all but shut them down inside.

The undrafteds and lower picks are too many to mention, but the most experienced of these have just entered their second season as well.

They were drafted for Mike Pettine and his system.  Fire people again, and some of them won't fit the new scheme, and the new guy has to start from scratch again.

I hope Jimmy Haslam meant what he said about continuity.  And I hope he meant three years.

If he listens to Kirwan, this will have a chance to develop.  If he listens to the mob, here we go again.

Sunday, October 4, 2015

Ray Farmer Pretrial Summation by Judge Mental

The defendant Raymond Farmer stands accused of incompetence.

First of all, I had to throw out some of the evidence the prosecutor tried to use.  Ray Farmer has only been in charge of personnel here for a little over one year.  He is only responsible for decisions which he made.

It then follows that, given the duration of that tenure, all references to the Browns' history at quarterback situation are irrelevant, except in the narrow context of Johnny Manziel, Josh McCown, and Brian Hoyer.

Fortunately for the Prosecution, Mister Twelvpak, I find some of his evidence compelling and relevant.

Mister Farmer has had four first round picks.  Justin Gilbert has, thus far, been a major disappointment.  The fact that a Sammy Watkins or other receiver could have been the pick instead also applies, as does Rays refusal to address this position in the draft.

Mitigating against this, however, is the fact that Sammy Watkins has not thus far met expectations himself, and the fact that it is not at all uncommon for cornerbacks to struggle early in their careers.

While it is valid to question the logic of a pick, thus the judgement of the picker, it is not valid to assume any result this early.  On the Gilbert issue, I must lean against Mister Farmer, but cannot make a ruling.

This goes double for Mister Manziel, who is a quarterback.

I refuse to consider the two first round picks from the most recent draft, of course.  Neither the Prosecutor nor I are qualified to make those calls this early, and one of us knows it.

Both sides brought in expert witnesses.  On balance, this weighed against Gilbert, but for Manziel.  I found Mister Staubach's testimony especially informative.

I of course find the aggregate of this insufficient to warrant a trial.  With all due respect to the Grand Jury at the Greenwich Tavern, they are patently in error.

The Prosecution based it's case almost exclusively on these first round picks and the wide receiver position.

Mister Coyote, speaking for the defendant, rightly points out that a General Manager must be evaluated on the sum total of his moves.

Indeed, the draft is one part of this, and the first round, in turn, only one part of that.

The defense is also correct that no draft can be accurately evaluated until after the end of the third season following it.

The decisions which can be judged here are the veteran free agents.

A cursory scan of those players who left, and those who were signed, shows a solid competence, except in the glaring case of Dwayne Bowe.

While I am tempted to recommend a trial on this basis alone, it hardly outweighs the many other signings or non-signings or trades (notably the trade with Indianapolis) which went well.

I leave this matter open.  If, after the end of the 2016 season, Mister Twelvpak wishes to refile, I will hear this matter again.

For now, I find that a trial would amount to vigilanteism, and refuse to allow it.

Case closed.  For now.