Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Ray Farmer has to See More Needs

I'm glad the Browns didn't get the elderly outside linebacker or ancient nose tackle.  Maybe I've been too hard on Ray.  Maybe he's offering them one year deals for what they're really worth.

Did you see what Miami paid Psycho Suh?  I'm sorry, but that was downright stupid.

Everybody is overpaying everybody!

Not knocking the Colts, though.  They're a young playoff team.  For THEM, signing an older player makes sense, because it could buy them a Superbowl.  It would just be dumb for this Browns' team this season.

My real topic here is age-related.  Among the Browns' needs, safety or inside linebacker are never mentioned.  But Ray Farmer has to watch the clock.

Whitner is NOT the player he used to be.  He's still pretty good, but his decline is perceptable, and won't stop.  Ditto Dansby.

Kirksey should become a top-notch player, and Roberts has made great progress.  But that's about it.

Moreover, it's hard to say whether or not any younger ILB on this roster can ever play MIDDLE linebacker like Dansby does.

Dansby might well be gone in 2016.

Gipson is a rising star, but who else is there at safety?

Desir has potential there, but who knows?  The Browns are talking to extremely big, tall cornerback Brandon Browner.  He's 30, but corners can often move to safety and stretch their careers out two or even three seasons.

Press/man corners lose their recovery speed first as they age, but safeties play off coverage or zone, and their brains are more important than their quickness.

Fortunately for Ray, inside backers and safeties go low (or even undrafted) in every draft, and possibly even a majority of elite safeties are converted corners.  Ray might have whiffed on Manziel, but he should be better at judging those two positions.

Oh yeah.  And center.  I think if the Browns show real progress this season, Alex Mack will give the Browns a fair shot, but if they don't--and don't have a franchise quarterback yet, he's a GMF.

I found two really good articles defending Ray.  Based on my last few blogs, they could have been aiming at me, and I think I have been too hard on Ray.  I stand corrected.

This one, by Daryl Ruiter, quotes Bernie Kosar.  In general, he points out that championship teams are never built through free agency.

I just need to mention his old coach, Bill Belichick.  Bill is fond of nabbing one or two older stars early in free agency.  But everybody wants to play for him and with Brady, so he doesn't have to overpay them.

He rents them to fill a need for a year or two, then lets them wheel off into the sunset.  But he also does what Ray might well be doing:  He waits til the first wave of players are signed (and overpaid).

The remaining players, with the draft looming and their positions with their old teams filled by other free agents, start to feel desperate.  Their greed and expectations diminish, and panic dawns.

That's when Bill throws them a lifeline and nabs them cheap.

This article, by Jared Mueller, defends Ray (and Jimmy) quite well.  In fact it really put me in MY place.

Jared reminded me of one fact that I guess is so obvious that we forget it:  Players don't WANT to come here!

Do we want Ray to overpay even more than the other GMs are overpaying everybody?  I don't!  

I don't want sissies who don't think snow is part of football.  I don't want hyper-greedy mercenaries like Revis or Suh.  Don't want glory-hogs or night-life men-about-town in search of tabloid photographers.

I like intelligent players with imaginations.  Who like Mike Pettine and his defense.  Who comprehend that a journeyman quarterback with a great running game and defense can look like a stud.  Who can count to twelve, nineteen, and two.

Who have the guts to make an educated bet.

By the way, Jordan Cameron might be one of those second wave guys.  I can tell you: Everywhere he goes, they bring up his concussions and injuries, and base a lot of their offers on performance incentives.  He thought he'd be the top tight end, but he's not seen that way.

He probably didn't like that and kept shopping.  If Gresham signs, he'll like it better, and might start missing Cleveland.

I personally would prefer Gresham, because of that glass jaw of Jordan's.

The best veteran quarterbacks appear to be off the table.  If you believe Chip Kelly (you shouldn't but if you do), he's out of the Mariota sweepstakes.

Well, maybe.

But Bradford ran a wide-open offense in college, and was all-world.  Chip knows he can't run his whole Oregon offense in the pros, or he'll lose quarterbacks.  But Bradford can do and has done most of what he wants a quarterback to do, and in Philly he'll have more protection.

I believe his preference for Bradford over Foles was genuine.  Foles isn't as effective on short and intermediate routes.  Bradford is exceptionally accurate, with great touch.

If that's the case, the Browns do still have a shot at Mariota, and I do believe Ray still wants him.

Mariota is not only a freak athlete, but is dedicated, mature, and intelligent.  He might indeed need a lot more "seasoning" than Winston, but more and more, a consensus among real scouts is emerging that he's a good bet.

I harken back to a few entries ago:  Ray may never have two first round draft picks again.  He may not even be in the top 15 again (permabashers shut up--I swear it's like a reflex with you isn't it?).

Two years from now, Ray might get fired, and it might be just in time to watch Marcus Mariota play in the Superbowl.

If he thinks this guy can be all that, he MUST take his shot, right now.  Mariota or bust.

Or maybe Mariota AND bust, but hey--no franchise quarterback, no JOB so...


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