Cleveland Browns Silly Season Starts Early

In one article by Thomas Moore of Dang Pound Daily, the writer suggests that Ray Farmer's problems were the result of his having deferred to Haslam and Pettine.  I was prepared to blow this out of the water, until I read some of Tom's logic.

Ray Farmer never even interviewed Justin Gilbert, and did spent six hours with Derrick Carr.  Certainly, Mike Pettine liked Gilbert a lot, and Jimmy Haslam did say "Let's go get him" in re Johnny Manziel.

Tom is pretty objective overall, which is why he defended Ray by listing a number of smart moves he made through the other rounds and free agency.

The only problems I have with this article are 1: Cornerbacks often take time to develop, and need reps to do it.  Next to quarterback, it's the most difficult position to master in the pros. 2: Derrick Carr has cooled off lately, and Johnny Manziel has already grown into a very good quarterback who could wind up being the steal of his draft. 3: If Ray deferred to his boss and coach on these picks, it wasn't necessarily out of weakness.  4: You have to list the Dwayne Bowe contract: a HUGE mistake.

Rumors based on emanations of penumbrae about Mike Pettine staying while Ray takes the fall abound.  It's mostly parroted speculations by guys like me (except not as smart or humble).  For all I know, this will happen, but it doesn't make as much sense as the opposite.

When Bill Polian speaks, everybody should listen.  Bill repeated again that the Ryan defense (hence Pettine's) is "extremely" complex, and requires veteran players and a (hard to find) field general to make calls and coordinate it.

Now, this is one reason why Ray signed Dansby and Whitner, and then Jim Leonard.  Leonard was old, small, and slow, but he could make the calls.  This is why the defense last season seemed so much better.

But this team was sort of rebuilding, and a bunch of rookies (including Gilbert btw) need to play.

Whitner and Dansby are old veterans, but it doesn't necessarily make them able to decode this enigma defense.  Nor can it be easy for an inexperienced player at any position to understand their role on a particular play.

Polian mentioned that there was "no carry-over" from week to week with this defense.  It runs completely different schemes from opponent to opponent, and the players have to learn that scheme from scratch.  It can work well with a well-seasoned roster that's been together for a few seasons, but is bad for a team with Sheltons, Orchards, all but one surviving cornerback, the third safety, a second year inside linebacker, a rookie DE, etc.

So...this is Ray Farmer's fault?  I don't think so.  I'm not an expert, but Bill Polian (and several Buffalo Bills players) are, and they say they spend more time code-breaking than they do playing.

It took Nate Orchard almost his whole rookie season to make a significant impact.  Even now, I don't know that he won't disappear again vs the Steelers because the whole game-plan will be different.  What worked against the Chiefs couldn't possibly work against any other team, after all, right?

Gilbert?  Well maybe he's just not a rocket scientist.  Maybe he just wants to be a man corner, period.  Maybe he's like me, and resents the fact that he can't just play football like around 60 other starting cornerbacks in the NFL.

Joe Haden got hurt, but even before that he played badly.  Was he just following bad orders?  Maybe the complexity of the defense gave him his concussion!

Sure, there's conflict with the front office!  Ray wants to know why you won't let the young players he got you just play football.  Ray is a former NFL linebacker.  You can't con him!  Some of his draft picks probably complained to him.

And somehow it's Ray Farmer who gets the wrong end of the stick!  The talent is there!  It's just not allowed to learn one consistent scheme, develop chemistry, refine a predominant skill-set, and just PLAY!

If I were Jimmy Haslam I'd KEEP Ray Farmer.  I'm confident that whatever happens, his signings and draft picks will succeed in the NFL, and I'll be saying I told you so. If Haslam fires Ray Farmer, it's political, and will catch up to him.

In This article by our old friend Mike Carrucci, Mike goes more in depth about what Bill said.  Of course, Bill thinks quarterbacks need to be perfect people, so he hates Johnny Manziel, so even he isn't as smart as my humble self.

In This article by Carl Setar, Carl calls Cleveland the ideal landing spot for Chip Kelly.  I think that is mostly insane.

The writer does make a few good points: Manziel is better suited to his college offense than is Sam Bradford.  Carl seems unaware that Kelly tried to adapt to the NFL somewhat when he came here, which is why he hired Pat Shurmer and then traded for Sam Bradford.

Carl calls a Bradford type Kelly's "ideal" quarterback, but that's not true.  Bradford was simply the best quarterback he could get at the time, and accuracy is more important than athleticism.  If Kelly did come to Cleveland, he'd love Johnny Manziel, and would run more of his read-option offense with him than he can with the ponderous Bradford.

Carl does some wishful thinking: Maybe Chip wouldn't want to control personnel.  Maybe he will have learned to treat players more like adults.  Maybe he'll be humbled.

The idea is still, on balance, insane.  Chip Kelly as a personnel guy is what the mob thinks Ray Farmer is.  Even after he screws up, he keeps trying to pound square pegs into round holes.  And if a truly smart guy like Mike Pettine digs in his heels and refuses to change, what makes anybody think Chip Kelly would?

In this "Hey Tony", some of these issues with the defense are addressed by readers, and Tony points out (as I have) that Jim O'Neill is Mike's guy.  You can't blame him for doing what he's told to do.

The fantasy football gurus are being lazy and ignorant again about the Browns vs the Steelers.

After Manziel ran for over a hundred yards in Kansas City, they expect the same in Pittsburgh.  Everything he did up til then, including throwing for 370 yards vs this very team, never happened.  The wind in the KC game isn't even considered.

None of them list Travis Benjamin (over 120 yards vs the Steelers) or Gary Barnidge as options.

And the Baltimore Ravens just beat the Steelers!

Ok yes, the Browns are one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they passed for 370 yards vs the Steelers, stomped the guts out of San Fransisco (which beat the Seahawks two weeks later), lost an almost-competitive game to the Seahawks, and came close to beating the Chiefs at home.

I haven't seen the line yet, but I imagine it will be a double-digit point spread.  I can't argue with that.

Baltimore somehow stifled the Steelers passing attack, but there is no Jimmy Smith on this roster, and I just can't see the Browns doing the same.

Last time, the Browns somehow managed to control Williams (btw a top fantasy pick despite that jeez), but Big Ben just destroyed the homies by air.

On the other side, the Browns couldn't run either, and I don't see that changing much.  They should do a little better, as the run game seems to have improved since they now run to the strong side too, but the Steelers stuff the run as well as anybody.

But Manziel DID trade punches with Ben blow-for-blow, and did it without those all-star stud receivers Ben has.

What if?  What if the Browns just finish off two of those drives this time, and kick a couple field goals?  370 air yards and a measley 75 on the ground could easily mean 20 points.

Probably not enough, of course.  Hard to get a pick here, or a fumble, or a td return.  

But you never know.  Everybody talks about the Steelers having everything on the line, as if it means the Browns should just call in sick.

But Manziel is playing for his future, as are several other players, along with the coaches.

The "Hey Tony" questioner who called this roster "garbage" is a moron.

If Pettine surprises me and lets the "garbage" defense play, the Browns have a shot.

Let Gilbert and Pryor play, too!  If I'm Ray, I want to know why Mike thinks a lilipution cornerback has a better chance of defending one of those stud receivers than a 6' guy that clocks 4.3 (if you let him).  Or why, with all the trouble you have in the red zone, you don't have the 6'5"+ 230 lb. turbocharged guy even active!!!

I don't know.  Maybe Mike just wants to make sure if somebody gets fired it won't be him.  I'll know for sure when I see the game-day depth chart.

Post-Kansas City Stress Disorder

1: Rizzo says "Johnny can't throw in those windy conditions, and you can't make a living as a running quarterback in the NFL".  

The second part of that sentence is true, but the first part is presumptuous.

Certainly the wind was an issue.  Alex Smith kept his passes short, and completed most of them.

There is a lot of science involved here.  What part of the field are you on? Which direction are you facing? Is this your home field, or one that's strange to you? 

Rizzo didn't bother with any of that, and completely ignored the fact that Johnny has a very strong arm.  Declaring him incapable of ever doing better in similar conditions is irrational.  There might even be college games on record to refute it.

A tight spiral helps, and Johnny doesn't always "spin it" as well as he could, but generally Rizzo was less than thoughtful.

Nobody is talking about Johnny outrunning his running backs every game either.  Quit overreacting.

2: On this windy day, the 6'5" Terrelle Pryor and Justin Gilbert were inactive. Taylor Gabriel was active.

Johnny Manziel sure could have used a super-fast big skyscraper in the Red Zone, especially on such a windy day.

Instead, the only big/tall threat was Gary Barnidge. The Chiefs knew that, and are very effective against tight ends.

Smurf receivers are much less effective in the end zone because they can't go to the back edge and wait.  They have to have separation and generally be in front of defenders.  Coverage guys position themselves shallower, knowing the smurfs will run out of space if they try to flash by them.  They can be two or three feet in front of the smurfs and still break up the pass, too.

Nor can the quarterback loft the ball in a bucket-pass, as it gives all the close-packed defenders time to react to the ball.

Especially on a windy day like Sunday, the smurfs have to cross underneath and the pass has to be low and hard.

Pryor could have fixed that.  He could have been behind the defenders, and the pass could have a higher trajectory because he has the range to adjust to it if the wind takes it off-course.

...or he could catch a slant or cross himself and just run people over.

Mike Pettine is a blockhead.

3: Terry Pluto and others think Johnny needs to be better in the pocket.  I wasn't able to watch this game, but it sounded like he rarely had a pocket.  You need a pocket to play well in it.

And he's played well from the pocket for several games now.  How does one game undo all that?

I believe Johnny ran so much as a strategy on a day in which he couldn't trust any intermediate or long passes to get to their targets.  And that was very smart.

4: The defense and run game offered much encouragement.  These were not the 49ers, and now on two out of three weeks, they've played well.  

Notables included Farmer draft picks Nate Orchard and Danny Shelton, and Farmer ufa Jamie Meder.  Farmer draft pick Cam Erving also finally had a serviceable day.  I guess Farmer free agent Pasztor did okay too, but I'm not sure. Farmer ufa Isaiah Crowell did ok, right?

The Ravens just knocked off the Steelers, and the Browns have a shot too.

The Ravens passed effectively, and a little later even managed to wear down the run defense and control the clock.

Hard to imagine Big Ben and his all-star receivers being stifled two weeks in a row, but Johnny Manziel can shoot it out.

I'm off the fence on Mike Pettine.  He's a blockhead.  Even if you doubt that Pryor could have improved the offense in the Red zone as I described, he needed the reps, they needed more real tape on him, and not on Gabriel.  Ditto Gilbert.

He's a blockhead.  Experience will always trump talent for him, when often it shouldn't.  No mystery there's some conflict between him and Farmer (now).  I side with Ray.

The defense surrendered a touchdown pass because Donte Whitner failed to pick up the tight end in coverage.  Ibrahim Campbell could have screwed that up just as well.

Contemplating 2016 Cleveland Browns

Prologue:  Jimmy Haslam can be second-guessed for the decisions he's made, but I disagree with Terry Pluto about the need for him to have press conferences and all that.

What's he supposed to say besides exactly what Mike Pettine says?

What if he's already decided he's going to replace Pettine and/or Farmer?  He'll be asked that question.  If he stands behind them, he's a liar.  If he says he's not going to talk about that, or he hasn't decided yet, that's a major controversy.

What does Terry want to hear?  Everything will be okay?  Be patient?  I'm sorry?

Bud Shaw wrote an unusually thoughtful article suggesting that Jimmy would be smart to hire a consultant.  Parcells, Wolf, or Polian are great ideas.  Jimmy has reached out to the Big Tuna in the past.

I don't know about GMs, and don't hate Ray Farmer as much as the permabashers and parrots.

But if Pettine is fired, I'd try to get Josh McDaniels from the Patriots.

I know I know: Why would he come to Cleveland?

Manziel, Gordon, Pryor, Barnidge, Johnson, Thomas, and Benjamin, among others.

There is talent on defense, as well.  Poor tackling, undisciplined, and perhaps confused talent, but talent nonetheless.  And very high draft picks...and a lot of draft picks.

He might not be on a lot of short lists.  In one season as Denver's Head Coach, he went 8-8 with Jay Cutler, then 3-9 with Kyle Orton before being fired in-season.

But he was 33.  Remember Bill Belichick?  He "failed" here, notably in his last season, when his team knew it was moving.

He rejoined Bill Parcells as a coordinator, and re-emerged as possibly the best Head Coach in history.

McDaniel was the coordinator who got the Patriots to the playoffs with Matt Cassel.  Bill Belichick gave him a short written "Bible" on being a good head coach.

I'm sure he learned a lot.  Cutler isn't elite, Orton can't throw deep, and talent is good.

McDaniels--or at least Belichick through him--adapts to his personnel.  That's why New England now runs a backfield-by-committee and never skipped a beat with the losses of Edelman, Amendola, Gronk etc.

I know I know: Brady.  But he did it with Cassel too.  

That brings up the next protest: Manziel is no Brady.  Neither was Cassel, and end the last sentence with YET.

As Head Coach in Denver, he tried to get Cassel instead of Orton for Cutler, but the deal fell through.  If he wanted Cassel, he'll like Manziel just fine (unless he's another puritanical old lady micromanaging all his player's waking moments).

Could he work with Ray Farmer if he's retained?  If he has a voice and input, he can.  

Ask Mike Pettine.  He won't lie.  The two cooperated on the draft and personnel moves.

The results are ugly, but McDaniels must have learned critical thinking from Bill, and can see the talent here.

Lots of it!  And the fact that Ray wasn't stupid enough to cut Manziel or Gordon, and was smart enough to re-sign Pryor.

As I mentioned, because of his history and firing in Denver, he might not be in great demand, so the Browns would have a shot at him.

So Erving needs to lift weights.  Gilbert needs to keep doing what he finally was doing before he got hurt.  Haden and Bitonio will be back.  Shelton just needs to stop standing up so much, and maybe lose some weight.  McDaniel can see over the horizon--there's a lot of potential here.

Let the overrated blockheads take the other jobs.  I vote for McDaniels if there's an opening.  I'll bet he's ready this time (and it helps that he's older than his players now).

Surprised?

I'm not.  The Seahawks are great.  I wasn't able to watch the game, but my friends furious texts filled in a lot of blanks.

The loss of John Greco is being glossed over, but it mattered, ok?  Bademosi starting at cornerback mattered.  The loss of Bitonio mattered.  Hartline mattered.  Don't throw out those Vince Lombardi cliches, either.  Facts are facts.

Not that I'm not furious too.  I don't care what the NFL or even Johnny himself says: if you get two hands on a ball and don't catch it, you dropped it.  There were at least four and maybe five drops.  Ridiculous.  I can cut Pryor some slack because he's new and was probably too tense, but I'm sick of the other guys.

And the facemask with time expired?  What seems to be Tramon Williams major malfunction?  I can't wrap my mind around this crap!

That gave the Seahawks three points.  At least two of the drops would have been first downs.

It all mattered!

Quit missing tackles, dropping balls, and being idiots and the Browns could have made this a game.

I know Johnny wants to keep the same regime, and hiring a new head coach would be disruptive as hell, but what do all these screwups have in common?

That's not a lack of talent.  It's a lack of fundamentals.

Analysis of Manziel's performance is, as usual, muddied up in most minds with the final result.  He played well enough to score points, even on this great defense.  Just catch the damn ball!  Little help here?

Forget the late interception.  Down by 17 with time running out, any real quarterback will take chances he otherwise wouldn't.  You don't want a quarterback who's more concerned with his stats than with winning.  

Johnny surprised me when he talked about his own ball placement when asked about the drops.

No quarterback will throw his receivers under the bus by telling the truth, but most just babble abstract things about miscommunication and shrug. 

Manziel blamed himself.  Wow.  And I think he was sincere.  He evidently intends to be the most accurate quarterback in football.  Make every ball undroppable.

Note to Johnny: Some of these clowns will drop it anyway.

Jimmy Johnson doesn't believe Manziel has the maturity or emotional discipline to ever be a franchise quarterback.  Randy Moss says he's still a kid and will be great.

He keeps getting better.  To my own surprise, he's doing a great job identifying the "Mike", setting up protections, calling the right play, and checking down.  I had thought it would take longer for him to be able to do all that as quickly as he needs to do it.  In fact, I wasn't sure he would ever be able to do it, given his background.

He's already running the offense like a veteran after seven games.  That's impressive.  

We don't know yet?  What do you need to see?  Does he have to start catching his own passes?  Lead-blocking for his running backs?  Scoring more than 30 points a game all by himself?

Quarterback is the most important position in football, but he's still just one guy.  If you traded Manziel with Wilson, the Browns still would have lost, and probably by 17 points.

Unless Johnny Manziel inexplicably regresses, he's a franchise quarterback.  No other quarterback could do better with this T E A M.

Kansas City is another tall order, but they're not the Seahawks.  The Browns have a puncher's chance.

I can't help looking ahead to Pittsburgh.  They'll rack up 35 points or so, but maybe this time Johnny can score some touchdowns on that shaky pass defense of theirs.

That's the game where he'll have a real chance to make an impression, even in a probable loss.

Will anybody pay any attention?

Browns vs Seahawks Analyses Corrections

First off, I expect a Browns loss, and it could be a blowout, too.

However, most of the analyses I've heard of read are sloppy, shallow, and lazy.

As usual, the analysts go straight to the season-long statistics without adding weight to the most recent games.

Nor do they separate Johnny Manziel from McCown and Davis.  They also ignore Duke Johnson utterly and completely.

The Seahawks are a great team with zero weaknesses, and they're white-hot right now.  They'll be at home.  Well I get all that.

But let me begin here with San Fransisco.  They had shown signs of life in their 3 most recent games, but still pretty much sucked.

But we get too extreme when we say that one team is a ten and another is a zero.

We do that to avoid critical thinking and a potential headache.  Seahawks exciting.  Niners boring.

It's much easier this way to completely ignore the Browns dominant performance in that game.  It wasn't that the Browns are any good at all (I mean look at the stats from their season!)  No, it had to be because the Niners are the worst team in the history of football.  Therefore, nothing that happened there has any microscopic measure of relevance.

Manziel's 2015 stats approximate McCown's, therefore the switch from the old vet to the kid is irrelevant.

What Manziel did to Pittsburgh?  Well, what was the final score?  Case closed!

Duke who?

The Browns can't stop the run...well except for Pittsburgh and San Fran.  But the Bengals ran over them so we can ignore the other two and predict a romp by the third and fourth string backs.

Oh for sure!  They're just as good as those Cincinnati guys, and Seattle's offensive line is superior to Cincinnati's, and Seattle's wide receivers are just as good (I'm being sarcastic).

The Browns won't have the same defensive game plan against Seattle that they used against Cincinnatti.

The Bengals have a lethal set of receivers, and the Browns couldn't prioritize the run.  They were in nickels and dimes all day and trying to stop Green, Brown, etc.

Seattle has Baldwin, Locket etc. and they're scary, but Seattle is a run-first team.

If the Browns were more of a threat, they might change their m.o., but with their two top backs out for good, they'll need to get the other guys meaningful reps heading toward the playoffs.  And then, of course, the Browns have been atrocious vs the run, so it just makes sense.  Carroll must feel confident that Wilson and his defense can take over if it doesn't work out.

I honestly can't predict whether or not the Seahawks will have much success on the ground, but I would be stoopid to assume it after the Browns stuffed Williams and the Niners.

Stopping Seattle's run undermines play-action and sets up pressure situations.  I know that the Browns won't sack Wilson nine times, and that Wilson will still make plays, but none of the other analysts have bothered to take it this far.  It's much easier to assume that Seattle will hum along running and passing at will, scoring four or five leisurely touchdowns in a boring game.

Manziel is short of receivers now.  What about Duke Johnson, the safety valve who can play the slot?  Vs nobody at all or Seattle's third or fourth cornerback?

They acknowledge Barnidge (yawn) and the fact that Johnny will rely heavily on him, but that doesn't matter, does it?

The Seahawks are a top team vs the run, and only give up 3.6 ypc.

And again: The Browns will seek to match Benjamin up against that 6'2" cornerback on crossing routes as often as possible.

And what about the quarterback?  Was it all about the Niners just being bad that made the whole Browns team look like superstars, or could Manziel have influenced that?

Eyerolls.  Snorts.  

And Crowell.  Called by some scouts the best runner in his draft class.  Could he manage 3.6 yards per carry?  Could he manage the average Seattle's defense surrenders to opposing backs?  Might he be somewhere in the middle?

Well, like I said, I don't expect the Browns to win.  I'm just aggravated because the analyses I've read have been presumptuous, shallow, dismissive, and ignorant.

YOU STAND CORRECTED.

More of the same goes with alleged analysis of Ray Farmer.  Memorex Morons have heard and repeated the negative mantra long enough that their brains have shut down.

Manziel was picked twenty third overall and has already emerged as a very good (if not elite) NFL quarterback without much support.  This should go on the plus side of Ray's ledger, but that would require something called critical thinking.

"Yeah bud wud aboud Gilburd?" Gilbert started and appeared to have begun to emerge when almost immediately he got knocked out.

Microscopic sample size, I know.  But this was a second year CORNERBACK why don't you comprehend this?

That's the first round.  You're calling Erving and Shelton busts as ROOKIES?  Really?  Seriously?

Todd McShea has the Browns drafting Paxton.  Well I wouldn't mind that.  Draft him and let him sit behind Manziel for a season!

What?  Really?  Why?  You can trade one or the other later.  What's the big deal? Who keeps telling you you have to start a number two pick as a rookie?  No you don't!  

Another guy says draft a wide receiver.  He's only two inches shorter than Gordon, four inches shorter than Pryor, and a little slower than both!

Why?  Because Ray hasn't picked a wide receiver in the first round, ergo he's overdue!  Brilliant.

How depressing.

Yea, Though We Walk Into Seattle...

I really need these people who want to temper our enthusiasm after the win over the Niners to shut up, ok?  And quit telling me not to burn down mosques, by the way.  Stop trying to impress everybody by talking to them like they're children. 

Others need to quit cherry-picking Manziel's mistakes out of what he did well as if he's a seasoned veteran, because he's not.  For all intents and purposes, he's a rookie, and he can't be held to that standard...yet.

By that standard, Marcus Mariota is a bust. Winston is mediocre.

In reality, Manziel is light years ahead of where many of us thought he'd be six games into his career.  Including me.

His stats were efficient, but not overwhelming.  That's mostly because for a change he had lots of help from his running game and defense.  The run was working, so they stuck with it.  They didn't fall behind, so they didn't have to pass that much.

Against Pittsburgh, when he was behind and they couldn't run, he threw for 370 yards.  View the two games in context, and you have a more accurate picture of this young quarterback.

Of course, Seattle is a different story.  The Steelers secondary doesn't compare to the Legion of Boom.

Throw out San Fransisco.  The Browns defense against the Steelers managed to hold the run in check, and might be able to do that to Seattle's third and fourth running backs.  That's a faint ray of hope.

But Russell Wilson is a far more advanced version of Manziel, and can work without that net.

For this team and Johnny, Seattle really is the Valley of the Shadow of Death.

More rays of hope can be derived from both of Johnny's recent starts, though.  Sure, San Francisco sucks, but they'd beaten Chicago and were thought to be on the upswing.  Vegas had the game as almost a pick, and the fantasy gurus called (ahem) Reuben Draugns a "must-start"...

I figured the Browns would probably win a close one, but was pretty shocked by how thoroughly they dominated that team.

Yes, we must keep it in context.  This was a bad team.  But the way the Browns crushed them was shocking.

I say that this whole team hasn't just taken a step.  They've made a leap.

Johnny, and the energy he brings, could be part of that.  Suddenly, both sides of the ball looked like what was drawn up on the white board before the season began.

No, I don't think they can beat the Seahawks in that noise machine.  But maybe they can give them a hard time, and make them work for it.

Their one chance to actually win is Terrelle Pryor.  He was in for sixteen snaps vs San Fran, but Johnny never threw to him.  Say, was he blocking downfield on Crowell's two big runs?  Hmmm...

At any rate, I don't believe that the Seahawks will go out of their way to put Richard Sherman on him, and he might be targeted more in this game.

Barnidge is another factor.  Seattle doesn't handle tight ends that well.  Even Benjamin: if Sherman is matched with him, that's a mismatch in the microbe's favor.

Wilson is all that, but now has lost Rawls.  Rawls was maybe even as good as Beastmode, but the guys he's got now are basically Draughnses.  It means the defense can attack on every down (as long as they stay in their lanes and don't let that little guy get loose).

But no, I don't think the Browns will win.  Hard to find a win in K C or Pittsburgh, either...but they'll have a better shot there than here.

Bob Condatta,  a Seattle writer, wrote a good, objective story on Manziel and this game.

I no longer worry about the first overall pick.  I don't believe the Browns will need a quarterback, and if they do, there are several of them.

I like Davis too.  And McCown should have another year left.

I'm jumping the gun on Johnny?  No I'm not.  For him to be playing this well this early in his career with the receivers he has tells me all I need to know.

If Seattle makes him look bad, the permabashers will be hopping up and down shouting "See?  I told you!  Case closed!"

Then I'll list the other quarterbacks this defense has embarrassed, and tell them to take a pill.

Still, I fantasize about an actual win here...then I wake up.  Oh well.

The talk of a Manziel trade was dumb before and it's dumber now.  He is doing a lot of what he does from the pocket, just like Wilson and Brees.  A new coach who wouldn't want him isn't worth hiring.

Johnny Manziel=Donald Trump

The latest consensus among ex-players and managers who I respect (and amateurs I don't) is that Johnny Manziel will fall on his face.  Dick Jauron is one exception.  He said "I don't know".

Part of this is the puritanical p.c. bullcrap I've ranted about, and has nothing to do with anything on the field.  Jauron might be the only guy who bothered to separate the two unrelated matters.

Same old same old from the non-players: He's not big enough for the AFC North.

Neither was Brian Sipe.  And I guess Doug Flutie was too small for New England...just shut up, ok?

Well I'm just bringing this up now to get it on record: I say I am right and all those real and fake experts are wrong, and Johnny Manziel will succeed.

He might not win more than one game, but he'll convert third downs, move the offense, complete many passes to many receivers, and be part of maybe 2 touchdowns per game.

I also predict that he will be blamed for not single-handedly scoring more points than his own horrific defense allows, no matter what, because that's easy.

Roger Staubach and others agree with me.  Kudos to Dick Jauron for being objective and paying attention.

Browns 97, 49ers 96.  Updated w/l prediction 6-10

Latest Browns Rumors and Gossip and Inanity

Mary Kay Cabot has even Adam Shefter talking about showcasing Johnny Manziel for a trade.  Larry Brown brought this to my attention.

Shefter guesses a conditional fourth round pick from Dallas. 

I hope this is Mary Kay just spitballing, since unless Johnny plays worse than he has been playing, that would be idiotic.

Larry thinks that Johnny will have to win a couple games and be awesome in general to stick around.  I can't imagine why.

This is a second year quarterback with about five games under his belt.  No rational GM would set that high of a standard for any quarterback with Johnny's history and experience.

Talk about standards, if they expect this guy to be a monk for the rest of his life, he should ask to be traded!  

If Johnny plays well with the supporting cast he has (a huge challenge), why else would they trade him for a fourth round pick?  Could that be it?  They're afraid that sometime in January or February he'll get caught having fun again?  If so, I quite understand, since almost everybody sits at a bar occasionally, and they know how they would feel in his position.

I've been tracking Terrelle Pryor's status as well as I can, along with the coach's comments.

Brian Hartline practiced yesterday.  Benjamin, Gabriel, Bowe, and Hawkins did not. Marlon Moore was limited, and I guess Jennings is there and ok.  There is some hope for a couple of the other guys, but it still seems unavoidable that Terelle Pryor will be active.

What I'm afraid of is that Grover Pettinenheimer will keep him on the bench for the whole game.

Maybe not, though.  And I predict that if he plays, Johnny Manziel will find him, just like he found Mike Evans in college.

Imagine yourself as a 5'10" cornerback trying to cover this guy.  If you try to bump him, you'll bounce off and you won't catch up to him.  You have to hang back and stay ahead of him.

He's almost uncoverable.  Right now.  I remember Dave Logan with the Kardiac Kids.  Brian Sipe sometimes didn't even see him, but threw a high, arcing bomb to where he was supposed to be.

Logan was kind of slow, so by the time the ball reached him, he was usually surrounded by defenders.

It didn't matter.  They couldn't knock him off-course, and couldn't out-reach him.  He usually didn't even have to leave the ground, and got a few more yards before they could take him down.

Johnny is (in reality) two inches taller than Sipe, and has a much stronger arm.  Pryor is an inch taller, twenty pounds heavier, and much, much faster than converted basketball player Dave Logan.

The combination of Barnidge and Pryor could cause some real coverage problems, something like Winslow and Edwards.

You can't put two people on both of them, and you can't trust a linebacker to cover Barnidge for more than a couple seconds.

The 49ers might well blitze over left guard, since they know that almost every single run will go to that side like always.  Some of their key passrushers are injured.

If Benjamin can play, using Pryor and Hartline outside could present a real NFL-type offense, and get Johnson and or Benjamin into the slot where they'd be much more effective.

What's that Terrelle Pryor playing more than one or two plays?  I must be insane, right?

Listen to me:  NONE of the other quarterbacks who attempted to switch to receiver were as gifted as Terrelle Pryor, ok?  I know that most of them failed.

Tim Couch's favorite target, Kevin Johnson, switched from quarterback to wr as a college sophomore, and led the Browns in receiving, and I think went over 1,000 yards.

That guy had great hands, but nowhere near the size or speed of Pryor.

Pryor knows DeFillipo's offense because he ran it.  As a receiver, he will know where to go, whatever the defense does.

He's been practicing all the routes, getting at least eight times the reps he would have gotten had he been on a team.  He's had months to process what he learned about hand-fighting, leverage, and dirty tricks from the coaches and other receivers.

Like Johnny, he can't yet be near his potential, but I'll bet he can play, right tf now.

Who else in the NFL is like him?  Well if you said Josh Gordon, you're mostly wrong.  He's around two inches taller, 10-15 lbs heavier, and much faster out of the blocks.

Calvin Johnson.  And look at Megatron's biggest plays.  He runs down the field, ignoring the little terrier running with him.  He looks up and back.  He catches the ball.  Quit telling me Terrelle Pryor can't do that, or even that it matters if the defense knows it's coming.

Maybe the 49ers would think like that, and try to single cover him.  Johnny and Terrelle would really like that!  Decoy, huh?

If only Mike can see it.  I'll bet Flip does.  I'll bet he's trying to get the old blockhead to actually let him play.

Probably, the 49ers, whose lately-formidable pass rush has been dented by injuries, will blitze over left guard, since they know that if they succeed, they'll blow up any run since, as we know, that's the only side they ever run to.

That's the formula for every Browns opponent.  Penetrate between center and left tackle.

But with Johnny, they have to contain him with pressure from the strong side as well.  That will be an outside linebacker trying to out-quick Scwartze.  But he can't get too deep and open a gap, and the DE on that side can't get out of his lane.

If it's done right, you'll see Johnny scrambling some, but mostly backwards and to his left.  If he has room to his right, he can buy himself way too much time to find somebody.

Rather than keeping Crowell or Johnson in to protect (if they don't go to a slot), I hope Flip sends them to the flat behind that left outside linebacker.

IF Pryor is on the field, he should be the x receiver, usually to Johnny's left.  That would put Hartline to the right.  Hartline usually gets press coverage, meaning that cornerback turns to run with him.  He's not worried about getting outraced.

If an inside backer is blitzing, then the other has Barnidge to worry about.  The strong or shallow safety has to track Manziel himself, if not Barnidge (and let the linebacker watch Manziel AND the backs.  This leaves one safety to watch everything else.)

Well I'm getting into the weeds here.  The dumpoff is a good safe way to burn that type of blitze, and can be executed in one second.

From the latest injury report, only Hawkins didn't practice.  Everybody else listed was limited, which might be partly precautionary.

Benjamin should play.  I would put Pryor at x opposite the top cornerback, Hartline opposite vs the second best, and Benjamin in the slot, or else Johnson there out of an apparent 2-back huddle.  The former dictates a nickel, the latter a base defense in which they have to put a safety on Johnson.

Most coaches being presumptive blockheads, they'll trust their number one cornerback to take care of the clueless rookie x-receiver and number two to cover Hartline.  The guy they'll sweat the most about will be the slot guy, and the high safety will need to hang back in center field and mirror him.

Pryor might be contained mostly, but can take his corner deep and away from scrimmage most of the time, and if he slants can challenge the deep safety.

Here's the deal: A healthy Joe Haden type can often neutralize a much bigger and even faster receiver by anticipating the cuts he needs to make and putting himself in the way.

But not longer than about 4 seconds.  One of the reasons Haden got burned so much was because quarterbacks had too much time.  Several of those burns were "come-backs".  All veteran (and former quarterback) receivers break off their routes and run towards the quarterback after around four seconds if the ball isn't already in the air.

This is literally impossible to cover.  No human being can stop and reverse directions fast enough to keep up with a wide receiver who does the same.  He always loses at least two or three steps.

Well, when Johnny does buy himself a couple more seconds, Pryor is probably the first guy he'll look for, because in four seconds he can be 35 yards downfield.

It's a little more complicated, of course.  The receiver won't just keep running back to the quarterback, but once he has separation will run parallel to the quarterback if possible.  This makes an accurate throw much easier, preserves the yardage, and gives the receiver a chance to run with the ball.

Two of Johnny's huge passes to Benjamin happened just this way--on scrambles.  A number of Barnidge catches from every quarterback happened this way too, and a few to Hartline.

That's been frustrating.  This is a timing offense in which the quarterback is supposed to throw within 2.6 seconds.  This doesn't happen often enough.  All the quarterbacks hold the ball too long.

If it was just the young guys, I'd blame them, but because it happened with McCown too, it's more likely the receivers not getting open, or getting knocked off their routes.

Easy to understand, since except for Hartline and Barnidge (love you man!) they're all smurfs...so...

Will Pryor get his chance?

Sunday is the Next Game of the Rest of the Season

Once Marty Pettine announced that Johnny Manziel would start at home vs the 49ers, I feared a draft-undermining victory.

But there is hope.  The 49ers season-long stats don't tell the story, as they just took the Chicago Bears to overtime and beat them.  Blaine Gabbert isn't Colin Kaepernick, nor is he the same guy he was last season.  (I don't know how many of you grasp this, but believe it or not, young quarterbacks tend to improve...just sayin...)

Fantasy gurus are pointing to Shaun Draugn as a cheap sleeper because the Browns run defense is so bad, but I need to point out: Draughn wouldn't make the Bengals roster.

And upon further review, now that I've sifted through the opinionated and prejudiced disinformation, Austin Davis played a hell of a game vs a top contender last Sunday, and warrants further consideration as a starter.  And if you disagree with that, you're not thinking clearly.

However, Johnny did what he did to the Steelers, presents more upside, and needs this chance to prove himself.

Whether he's the better player right now or not, however, his teammates know that he might just represent a new era for this team.

For many of them, it could be their last chance to play in the NFL, roll the dice on the ground floor of something special, or (more commonly) to put something on tape for their next contract...whoever pays it.

Brian Hartline's comments on the psychology of some of the veterans weren't lost on me.  They're playing for nothing, and the fear of an injury nags them.

But look at Brian himself.  Do you see any quit in him?

Still, Grover Pettine would be wise to play the first and second year players more during these last 4 games.  These are the guys who will fight hard to the bitter end, because they're still trying to prove they shouldn't be cut in training camp next year, and that they belong in the NFL.

Let Dansby, Whitner, Starks, D Bryant, Hartline, and even that 30 year old cornerback park it more so the young guys can make their bones.

But I doubt that Grover Pettinenheimer will see it that way.  

Anyway, there's an undeniable sense of excitement with Johnny Manziel, and it will infect the whole team.

I know Josh McCown, and he'll be egging it on.  I absolutely love that guy, and they need to keep him around for as long as they can (even if it means his next contract as a position coach).  This guy checks his ego at the door.  This guy wants everybody around him to succeed.  And he'll be in Johnny's ear all the time (and know when to back off, too).

I smell a Browns victory this Sunday.  I'm doing all I can.  I've started making Johnny my starter in my 25 cent Draftkings tournaments, and using Duke and Travis too.  I can't bring myself to actually bet against the Browns, but THEY should find my little stabs at money sufficient to make sure at least 2 of those guys fail miserably.

I've avoided Gary Barnidge so far, so he might go for 150 yards.  The Browns might even win anyway, but I've done what I could.

Look, I can't cover everything! I couldn't take the defense!  I just couldn't!  So here's how I think it might go, based on my fantasy picks:

Barnidge collects 8 catches for 130 yards and no touchdowns.  Manziel throws for 220 yards and no touchdowns and gets sacked 4 times.  Benjamin is completely shut down.  The defense scores 2 touchdowns.  Special teams scores a third.

THEM.

Seriously, trying to think with my brain here and ignore THEM, I believe Manziel is a good almost-sleeper pick in this specific game.

Manziel and Benjamin are a lethal combination, and I can't believe that  Duke Johnson won't be used more in this game.  I didn't take Barnidge, but that's only because I found other tight ends with big upsides much cheaper.

The x-factors are numerous: Crowell (or maybe just the blocking) has improved lately.  There's an outside chance that Marty Pettinegrove will let Terrelle "just fake a cut and go for the the end zone" Pryor in for one or two plays...even obvious ones...though I doubt it...

Anyway, I've put my quarters on Johnny, Travis, and Duke to get THEM to intercede, but really, maybe a win wouldn't be so bad.

Because if Johnny Manziel wins this one, and maybe even upsets another team in the meatgrinder on deck, wouldn't that answer the quarterback question?  Would the Browns NEED the first overall pick?  (But like I said, there's Connor Shaw, the guy ahead of him, and another guy anyway...Some cretin predicted a weak qb crop, but that's idiocy--the Browns could draft 3-5 and STILL get a stud  qb.)

Yeah, I confess: I like Johnny.  I didn't at first.  Then I wasn't sure.  Then I was hopeful.  Then he threw for 370 yards vs the Steelers.  Now I think we got our franchise guy.  And an excellent insurance policy in Austin Davis, and Josh McCown through retirement if they have the brains to do it.

You heard me!  That includes YOU, Black Cloud!  Manziel looks like our franchise qb to me and I don't CARE if he likes to party!  

Black Cloud, you know as well as me political correctness is bullshit.  His going to rehab now looks like a mistake, because now he's not allowed to be human any more!!!

In today's NFL, Kenny Stabler would never have had a chance.  We might never have heard of Brett Favre.  And a WHOLE BUNCH OF other superstars we haven't heard about yet, for that matter it's bullshit. 

Note to other readers: Black Cloud is a permabasher.  He is very intelligent, but doesn't have Browns OCD like me, but I guess he's read my blogs and deemed me an apologist or something because I try to leave the bashing to everybody else (since that's well-covered) and focus on the positive stuff (which is almost completely ignored).

So he's prone to dismiss anything positive coming from me, including about Johnny Manziel...no matter what.

Sorry: Anyway I'll come all the way out of the closet here:

I believe that the Manziel-led Browns WILL not only beat the 49ers, but also upset another contending team for a 2-2 record in the final 4 games of this season.

This could (but might not) save Mike Pettine's job.  But it WILL show that Johnny Manziel is for real, and could save Ray Farmer as well.

Again, for the fifth time, I repeat: Austin Davis is NOT  a bumb! Josh McCown has been a stud.  And I color Manziel as more a Wilson than a Brees, but I'll take that.

So there is my neck stuck out.  I don't feel much fear, though: What could Russell Wilson do with Gordon and Pryor?