The Team Ray Farmer is Building

I have to start out with this link to Jared Mueller on Dawg Pound Daily.  This article compares Taylor Gabriel to Sammy Watkins.

Remember that the Buffalo Bills wanted Sammy Watkins bad, so Ray let them steal their number four pick for only just merely their ninth overall pick...and their first and fourth rounders in the upcoming draft.

Boy, what a dummy, huh?  Sammy is tearing up the league, while Justin Gilbert hardly ever plays!

Jared focuses on the rookie undrafted free agent, microbe Taylor Gabriel, who is ranked above him by Pro Football Focus.  I will add here that anybody who thinks Justin Gilbert is a bust is frankly ignorant.

Gilbert wasn't ready for primetime, and this is actually pretty common for rookie cornerbacks.  In years past, he still would have started, and learned the hard way.  Given those reps he, like Joe Haden as a rookie, would probably be pretty decent by now.

But Mike Pettine can "only go by what he sees", and Gilbert failed to outperform Buster Skrine on the outside.  The best players play here, period.  Then along comes another Ray Farmer lilipution undrafted free agent: K'Waun Williams.

Gilbert's size, speed, and quickness are off the charts, and it's practically inevitable that he will become Joe Haden's bookend.  

That's certainly the plan, since no matter how good the little guys are, there are just too many skyscraper recievers in the NFL that they can't cover consistantly.  Gilbert can learn all the dirty tricks, but Skrine and Williams can't get taller.

But check that out: Ray Farmer has mined out some truly studly undrafted free agents.  (I must also mention that Pettine and company don't seem to give a damn about draft status, or where guys come from.  Skrine was a holdover.  many GMs might have cut him.  Most coaches would have handed Gilbert the job no matter what.)

Seattle, the last Superbowl winner, is loaded with undrafted free agents.  So far our GM looks as good as their GM, and our coach has been as clear-thinking and objective as Pete Carroll in how he uses that talent.

Taylor Gabriel could well be the next Steve Smith.  He has the same skills and the same attitude.  

But all this ignores the rest of that trade:  Buffalo is a pretty good team this season, so they probably wind up somewhere in the bottom third of the upcoming draft.  But even a 20th or 21st overall draft pick is pretty damn good, not to mention the fourth rounder.

This season, players in that range included Brandin Cooks and Ha Ha Clinton Dix.  A GM can find starters with Pro Bowl talent here, and Ray Farmer probably will.

As it stands, Josh Gordon has pushed Gabriel back a step, and Hawkins is a seasoned veteran who has similar skills.  But going forward, Gabriel has the makings of a superstar like Smith.

This Bills game is truly scary.  Any defense that creates that much pressure from a four-man defensive line--or a four man passrush, for that matter--is hard to beat.

It's simple for the back end players to master, so they can play much faster than they can in more complex systems.  They can double up on Gordon without exposing themselves too much to guys like Hawkins, Austin, or Gabriel.  They can cover tighter, because they trust their front not to give Hoyer time to exploit a vertical burn.

If there was ever a game in which Jordan Cameron would make the difference, this is it.

Mike Pettine wasn't giving away any state secrets when he hinted at max-protect.  He'll probably use two tight ends or a tight end and fullback a lot.  

The Browns are kind of forced to try to out-muscle these guys, and it's not a good situation.  With only Gordon and Austin or Hawk running routes, the whole secondary can try to smother them.

There is a little good news here, though: 

1: Gordon, and to a lesser extent Austin, can have guys all over them and still catch ACCURATE passes.

2: The Browns do have the blocking tight ends, backs, and fullback to give Hoyer time even against these guys.

3: The Browns can run the ball on anybody, including these guys.  Shanahan doesn't even have a choice here but to do what he tries to do anyway, and keep pounding until the defense tires.

No, not Marty-ball.  If they run on first down every time, these Bills can stop it.  But they can mix in pitch-outs and conservative dink-passes to get the ball past or outside the front four, and force the secondary players to take down the Browns' big, powerful backs.

4: The Browns' defense vs. the Bills offense makes things look better.

Last week, I read a pretty dumb part of an otherwise excellent analysis.  The writer was pretty clueless about Kyle Orton.  It's true that he doesn't have much of an arm, but he can march a team up and down the field, and can come from behind.

However, he's not very mobile, and due to his arm limitations the secondary can play closer to the line.  The front seven doesn't have to worry about containing him, and can blitze up the gut.  

Orton isn't prone to turnovers, but can be intercepted.  He can't rifle the ball into tight spaces, and has to float them to the sidelines, and intermediate-to-deep.

With a quarterback like him, an offensive coordinator will keep certain routes off the books, and the defense knows this, and doesn't bother to cover them.  

Jim Leonhard, late of the Bills, knows some of these recievers, and is among the smartest and sneakiest safeties on the NFL.  Physically, he's small and not very fast, so he really has to rely on his brains.

In this particular game, he could grab a pick or two.

Overall, these two teams are pretty evenly matched.  I'd feel much better with Cameron, Taylor, Gipson, Dansby, Sheard and the rest.  As-is, I have no idea who will win this.

Oh yeah.  Josh is back!  Browns 75, Bills 6.