The Team Ray Farmer is Building

I have to start out with this link to Jared Mueller on Dawg Pound Daily.  This article compares Taylor Gabriel to Sammy Watkins.

Remember that the Buffalo Bills wanted Sammy Watkins bad, so Ray let them steal their number four pick for only just merely their ninth overall pick...and their first and fourth rounders in the upcoming draft.

Boy, what a dummy, huh?  Sammy is tearing up the league, while Justin Gilbert hardly ever plays!

Jared focuses on the rookie undrafted free agent, microbe Taylor Gabriel, who is ranked above him by Pro Football Focus.  I will add here that anybody who thinks Justin Gilbert is a bust is frankly ignorant.

Gilbert wasn't ready for primetime, and this is actually pretty common for rookie cornerbacks.  In years past, he still would have started, and learned the hard way.  Given those reps he, like Joe Haden as a rookie, would probably be pretty decent by now.

But Mike Pettine can "only go by what he sees", and Gilbert failed to outperform Buster Skrine on the outside.  The best players play here, period.  Then along comes another Ray Farmer lilipution undrafted free agent: K'Waun Williams.

Gilbert's size, speed, and quickness are off the charts, and it's practically inevitable that he will become Joe Haden's bookend.  

That's certainly the plan, since no matter how good the little guys are, there are just too many skyscraper recievers in the NFL that they can't cover consistantly.  Gilbert can learn all the dirty tricks, but Skrine and Williams can't get taller.

But check that out: Ray Farmer has mined out some truly studly undrafted free agents.  (I must also mention that Pettine and company don't seem to give a damn about draft status, or where guys come from.  Skrine was a holdover.  many GMs might have cut him.  Most coaches would have handed Gilbert the job no matter what.)

Seattle, the last Superbowl winner, is loaded with undrafted free agents.  So far our GM looks as good as their GM, and our coach has been as clear-thinking and objective as Pete Carroll in how he uses that talent.

Taylor Gabriel could well be the next Steve Smith.  He has the same skills and the same attitude.  

But all this ignores the rest of that trade:  Buffalo is a pretty good team this season, so they probably wind up somewhere in the bottom third of the upcoming draft.  But even a 20th or 21st overall draft pick is pretty damn good, not to mention the fourth rounder.

This season, players in that range included Brandin Cooks and Ha Ha Clinton Dix.  A GM can find starters with Pro Bowl talent here, and Ray Farmer probably will.

As it stands, Josh Gordon has pushed Gabriel back a step, and Hawkins is a seasoned veteran who has similar skills.  But going forward, Gabriel has the makings of a superstar like Smith.

This Bills game is truly scary.  Any defense that creates that much pressure from a four-man defensive line--or a four man passrush, for that matter--is hard to beat.

It's simple for the back end players to master, so they can play much faster than they can in more complex systems.  They can double up on Gordon without exposing themselves too much to guys like Hawkins, Austin, or Gabriel.  They can cover tighter, because they trust their front not to give Hoyer time to exploit a vertical burn.

If there was ever a game in which Jordan Cameron would make the difference, this is it.

Mike Pettine wasn't giving away any state secrets when he hinted at max-protect.  He'll probably use two tight ends or a tight end and fullback a lot.  

The Browns are kind of forced to try to out-muscle these guys, and it's not a good situation.  With only Gordon and Austin or Hawk running routes, the whole secondary can try to smother them.

There is a little good news here, though: 

1: Gordon, and to a lesser extent Austin, can have guys all over them and still catch ACCURATE passes.

2: The Browns do have the blocking tight ends, backs, and fullback to give Hoyer time even against these guys.

3: The Browns can run the ball on anybody, including these guys.  Shanahan doesn't even have a choice here but to do what he tries to do anyway, and keep pounding until the defense tires.

No, not Marty-ball.  If they run on first down every time, these Bills can stop it.  But they can mix in pitch-outs and conservative dink-passes to get the ball past or outside the front four, and force the secondary players to take down the Browns' big, powerful backs.

4: The Browns' defense vs. the Bills offense makes things look better.

Last week, I read a pretty dumb part of an otherwise excellent analysis.  The writer was pretty clueless about Kyle Orton.  It's true that he doesn't have much of an arm, but he can march a team up and down the field, and can come from behind.

However, he's not very mobile, and due to his arm limitations the secondary can play closer to the line.  The front seven doesn't have to worry about containing him, and can blitze up the gut.  

Orton isn't prone to turnovers, but can be intercepted.  He can't rifle the ball into tight spaces, and has to float them to the sidelines, and intermediate-to-deep.

With a quarterback like him, an offensive coordinator will keep certain routes off the books, and the defense knows this, and doesn't bother to cover them.  

Jim Leonhard, late of the Bills, knows some of these recievers, and is among the smartest and sneakiest safeties on the NFL.  Physically, he's small and not very fast, so he really has to rely on his brains.

In this particular game, he could grab a pick or two.

Overall, these two teams are pretty evenly matched.  I'd feel much better with Cameron, Taylor, Gipson, Dansby, Sheard and the rest.  As-is, I have no idea who will win this.

Oh yeah.  Josh is back!  Browns 75, Bills 6.

Hey Brian: Yeah, Right

Brian Hoyer points out that Josh Gordon is not a savior.  He goes on to say that if you like your plan, you can keep it, global warming is causing global cooling, and that he has a bridge for sale cheap.

It's the night before Christmas, and Brian can't sleep.  He peeked, and he knows that he's getting his favorite toy back.

If you've been watching the Browns, they've been throwing deep passes more in an effort to back the safeties off the line to free up the running game and short routes.  

They've had to do this since Cameron went down and they lost Alex Mack.

The problem has been that he's throwing to microbes who can't outmuscle or out-leap coverage.  As I've mentioned before, Hoyer has been extremely lucky not to have thrown more interceptions.

Defenders are reading vertical first with these fast liliputions and staying ahead of them, so there's rarely been any vertical separation, and without that step or two, even a perfect pass doesn't have much of a chance.

Gordon will change everything.  They can try to cover him the same way, but he won't need any separation.  He'll have the ball or the interference penalty with the exact same passes.

Not that this is all Josh does.  In fact, he's a lot like Julio Jones.  He'll take short ones to the end zone too.  

Ben Tate:  Quit bashing him.  He had a bad run, but he doesn't suck.  The young guys are just a little better, with more upside, and now they can use the third back on special teams.

Nor was he a free agent "miss".  He was signed before the draft, and Farmer couldn't count on snagging two stud rookies at that time.  Nor was he paid anywhere near what was projected--he was a good value for his compensation.

The decimation of the front seven is alarming.  Dansby can't be adequately replaced, and the Browns might even change their fronts because of it.  Sheard was probably the best all-around OLB on the roster.  

Mingo will of course play more, but so will Eric Martin.  He's better than advertized.  Tank Carder may also be emerging as a solid inside linebacker--I got my fingers crossed, anyway.

As for Mingo, he might still be used the same way, and not blitze as much as he covers.  Despite (overstated) loss of Phil Taylor, the Browns may still be able to get pressure with 4.

I have no idea what fronts they'll run now.  With Dansby, there were lots of 4-3 looks with Kruger at DE.  Then still run that, but it depends on Tank  Carder. 

Eric Winston can definitely rush the passer.  Can he cover and mirror?

Regardless, I expect Pettine to make the most of what he's got left.

Terry Pluto did a great job of pointing out how the best players really do play here.  The unknowns see this.  They see real opportunity.  It inspires and motivates them.  Meritocracy works.

I've been waiting a long time for Ray Farmer and Mike Pettine.

Go udfas.

Browns Are For Real

I would first like to thank Jeremy Hill for his inspirational message to the Cleveland Browns.  The gist of what he said was that the Browns weren't that good.

Hill was understandably frustrated, and his comments were almost certainly aimed at his own quarterback.  When he said "They just sat in coverage all day", he meant that Dalton either didn't throw the ball, or missed his target.

But Hill can't say that.  But he had to say something, so he tried to use code-talk. 

 Unfortunately for Hill, when his team plays the Browns again, it will be in Cleveland, and they'll probably have Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron, and Hawk.

Hill is a rookie, and apparently not the sharpest knife in the drawer.  All recievers think they're open on every play, and they tend to expect exactly perfect passes.  In reality, Skrine and Gilbert ate his lunch.

AJ Green has the brains to admit when Joe Haden beats him.

As I said, the Bengals have a Superbowl roster, with no holes in it.  It might look to Hill as if the Browns were outgunned talent-wise.

Well, you can't compare the Browns' wide recievers to their opposite numbers on the Bengals.

But the reality is that the Browns' backfield is better.  The tight ends (without Gordon) are a wash.  The Browns' offensive line is as good or better, even without AMack.  I'm sure that Jeremy on truth serum would admit that Hoyer is better than Dalton, especially when it counts the most.

Commentators and analysts are already talking about the Bengals offense looking listless, but the fact is that it was the Browns' defense finally, at long last, putting it together and playing up to it's talent.

Gilbert, Kirksey, Robert Nelson and others are rookies.  Mike Pettine brought a new defensive system with him.  Hell, look at the depth chart and you'll see that it's described as a 4-3!

They're still getting better!  They'll be better when Jeremy Hill plays them again!  And he just insulted them!

Even if this delusional kid thinks his offense will score more points, the Browns' offense including Hoyer are likewise improving game-by-game, and next time they'll have Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to deal with.

What about the run?  The Bengals couldn't stop it!  Nick McDonald is settling in at center.  I saw eight or or more in the box, but this time it didn't work!  Our guys overpowered their guys.

The offensive line especially will be better next time, as McDonald and the other guys become used to eachother.  

When the Bengals come to Cleveland, Jeremy, they'll be facing a team with more talent than yours has, including at wide reciever.

AJ Green wants to be like Josh Gordon when he grows up, you hear that?  Cameron is as good as any tight end in the NFL.  All three of the Browns' running backs are better than your starter.

Thanks, kid.  You have guaranteed that they'll be ready.  You might get your wish, too: Dalton will be lucky if he can stay on the field.

I hope Jeremy Hill grows up soon, and can't hold his emotional comments against him.

But the Browns will.

Late note: Oh yeah!  Hill is a running back!  Oops

Don't Worry! Its Marvin and Andy!

Well I wish it was that simple.  The most overrated Head Coach in history is still competent.  Dalton is above average as well.  Too bad.

The Bengals home record says they win this.  They're one of the most talented teams in the NFL.  They don't have any holes in their roster.  Mike Brown has built a Super bowl team.

Fortunately for the Browns, see the title of this post.

I'm prepared for a loss here.  I won't stamp my feet, throw a tantrum, demand firings if they lose.

But the Browns CAN win!

If it's close at the end, do you want Dalton or Hoyer?  So Green's back.  We got Haden.    So Benard was just one guy and they still got a stud running back.  Somehow the defense lets guys run all over them, but comes out with wins.  

A loss here might mean no playoffs.  A win makes the playoffs not just possible, but likely.  T-minus one game after tonight to Gordon time.  Ray Farmer can say what he needs to, but that guy changes everything, and Hoyer will look for him, period.

If the Browns pull this one off, IN Cincinnati, that will prove they're ready for primetime, a year ahead of schedule.

I don't know.  But it's like 50/50, you know?  I seriously can't even work up real doubt.  With this Browns team, anything is possible.

How refreshing.

An Emotionally Detached Look at Brian Hoyer

If anybody doesn't know what I think of Brian Hoyer, just check back to any of about two thirds of my earlier blogs.  Long before he had earned the starting gig, I was the voice in the wilderness telling the lynch-mob that he could be a whole lot more than a "bridge" guy to the great and awesome Johnny Manziel.

This had nothing to do with where he came from, or the fact that I root for underdogs.  It had to do with his destruction of the Bengals and his unassisted comeback in his first Browns' start vs. the Vikings.

Now, just as earlier I pointed out how ignorant and lazy it is for alleged analysts to blame dropped passes and blown timing routes on him (or any quarterback), I have to point out that you can't ignore blown interceptions either.

I haven't been able to watch all the games, but of those I have, I've seen him throw at least six shoulda-been interceptions.

The most common of these are deep, vertical passes between the hash marks to Hawkins and the other microbes.

They've always had a step-for-step escort of two bigger, taller defensive backs who somehow managed not to reach up and pick the ball off.

I know this pattern, and it's design.  Josh Gordon can outreach and outmuscle the defenders to grab that ball, or at least prevent a pick.  It is utterly insane to try it with a microbe.

I KNOW that Kyle Shanahan and company have slapped him upside the head each time and said "What were you thinking?", and wonder why he keeps trying it.

Previously I asked the philosophical question:  If a pass hits a recievers' hands and is not caught, was it a bad pass?  Now I must ask:  If a pass can be intercepted and is not, was it thrown?

It was thrown.  Brian Hoyer has been the luckiest quarterback I have ever seen so far.  

The good news is that these passes were indeed accurate, and the issue was one of judgement.  It's likely that Hoyer was pressing; trying to make something happen.  Tactically, he did need to threaten deep to free up the intermediate routes.  I think his frustration got the best of him, and he just had to try it.

Brian Hoyer's judgement and intelligence are two of his best assets, so I know he can reign this in before it catches up with him.  But if he doesn't, there will be a reckoning.

I'm glad to hear Manziel say the things he's said, including that riding the bench and watching is good for him.

I'm frustrated to hear some goobers say that Manziel still makes one read and runs, and can never succeed.  

Some analysts will always see what they want and expect to see, no matter how long they have to wait for it.  This includes waiting six or seven seconds for a guy to flee a collapsing pocket, calling a controlled roll-out a scamble, or waiting four or five pass plays for a scramble.

This knucklehead hasn't seen him running the scout team in practice against the number one defense, either, or paid attention to what members of the Browns secondary have said about him.

I believe that Hoyer will get it together and stop making dumb throws.  BUT if he doesn't, well-prepared defenders will start picking him off, and it will be Johnny time.

I wonder if I'll be allowed to show up for Thanksgiving now.  I'm all alone here.  But you just can't let your heart have too strong a voice.

I'm glad Billy Winn is back.  He's one of the two best defensive tackle/ends on this roster, and his position will be better this week than it was last week.

I'm also really glad that they got Jim Dray.  He's not a Cameron, but he sure can help a quarterback move the chains in more ways than one.  Barnidge, too.  I wasn't all that surprised that they held him over from last season.

The loss of Alex Mack and disruption inside has caused some problems, but the main reason that the running game has faltered is how the defenses are playing.  They're "downsizing" for more speed, playing closer to the line, and reading run first.

As Kyle Shanahan said this week, he'd been expecting that. 

These are the times that will try Brian Hoyer's soul.  Early in games, and before he has established that point deficit he likes so much, he'll have to complete some third and longs and yes, even occasionally pass on first down!

It's going to get tough now--even this week.  The main reason that defenses can stack the box is that there's no Josh Gordon.

As it was, you saw how Cameron made them pay dearly.  Defenses were so determined to stop the run (and play-action) that they were willing to risk Cameron hurting them that way to do it.

Now, Cameron is mia as well, and Hoyer and the backs will get the kitchen sink.

Until Cameron and Gordon are both back, this whole thing will be on Hoyer.  

It's a lot to expect, even of some quarterbacks who are considered elite.  It's a very high standard to meet.

My heart says our man can do it.  My head isn't sure.

Sink or swim, Brian.  Time to prove it.  Go get 'em.