Hoyer or Manziel

It's premature to speculate on what's going to happen here between these two, but since everybody else is doing it, well...

If I'm Brian Hoyer, I can let my salary determine my decision.  If the Browns pay me starter money, then they must either start me or trade me. 

If Hoyer merely continues as he has, he can rightfully demand on the high side of 14 mil/year. Probably more.  A bunch of teams will be after him.  He'll be a proven winner.

The Browns can't pay him that much unless they intend to start him, and should Johnny Selfie beat him out anyway, then they'll have made a mistake.  Hoyer won't get a better deal anywhere else.

He's not afraid of Johnny.  He believes he'll remain the better quarterback, and if he's paid like the starter, it means the team agrees.

The team could easily recoupe a first round pick, and probably more for a first round pick, signed cheap for three more years, with a year in the NFL behind Hoyer and under Shanahan.  This would give them THREE first round picks next year.  They could shop for yet another quarterback of the future to eventually succeed Hoyer.  Or wait.

On the other hand, what if they feel that Johnny can be all that?  He's much younger.  He'll cost much less.  He can do more, and even his arm is stronger.

Much as I love Hoyer and have been irritated by Johnny, I'm not objective unless I consider this possibility.

If I'm Ray Farmer, I'd consider signing Brian Hoyer for starter money.

I know that this would upset the Selfie camp.  Linta would probably ask for a trade the next day.  Johnny isn't here to wait for a 29 year old quarterback to retire.

But I (Ray Farmer) have saved a bunch of cap money, and can afford to pay both quarterbacks for one season. I would indeed seek to trade Johnny, but only for a real profit.

A shallow analyst would think I'd given up my leverage with other GMs, but I'd tell them what I just told you: my worst-case scenario is having two great quarterbacks for one season, and then getting MORE  in a trade for one or the other in 2016.

More likely, I get a top 15 pick for Johnny, and a fourth rounder too.

But all this is indeed premature. What if Hoyer gets hurt?  Will Johnny get a chance to show suitors what he can do?  What if they sign Hoyer and Johnny does beat him out?

Oh yeah.  Blockbuster trade.  Nevermind.