I'm amazed by the glimmer of respect my Browns are now getting from the real experts on NFL Radio. I've missed a lot of listening time this week, so I don't know their actual picks for this game. I can safely assume that most of them picked the Ravens.
That's a reflex for these guys. But what I heard from most of them in discussing this game was that it would be a close one. They respect the Browns' running game, mention Hoyer's long streak without an interception, and even the fact that he's the come-back kid.
In one show, Pat Kirwan and ex-QB jim Miller share the mike. Miller mentioned again how he really likes Hoyer. Kirwan chuckled and implied that it's because he played for the same alma mater. Miller mentioned how vs. New Orleans and Minnesota, Hoyer had to engineer the comeback without running.
I actually heard Kirwan snort derisively! He just couldn't help himself. Pat is really stubborn about Brian Hoyer. After the game vs. Pittsburgh, he talked about how some people were going to make too much of that historic comeback and think "that was Hoyer", but "he's never going to be..."
How does Pat know this? When a guy is streaky--either mediocre or Brady-like--how can you say the mediocre streaks are the real him? How can you say that more experience won't make him more consistently the Brady-like guy?
Pat's just a stubborn guy. He said "career backup" last year and is just sticking to it, waiting for him to sail off the edge of the earth.
In the Bleacher Report, I read more of this. I could tell it was written by a Ravens fan. How could I tell?
Well, in describing this matchup, he compared the two teams unit-by-unit, giving "the edge" to one team or the other.
QB: Ravens. Can't argue with that. WR: Ravens. Yep. RB;...
Here the guy talks about the two Ravens' backs combining for 269 yards, and cites this and experience as reasons for giving the Ravens the edge.
Well first, before Tate was injured, HE averaged over 5 yards per carry, and since the two new guys did just as well as he did, an objective analyst has to include his stats. The Browns average more yards per carry, have more big plays, and more total yardage.
Third, experience? For a one-cut running back? Really?
TE: He gives Cameron his props.
DL: He gives the edge to the Ravens. Based on the three top guys names and the fact that so far this season they've done better against the run, I can't make a big fuss about this. I just need to point a few things out:
First, Ngata remains an elite player, but is on the downside of his career. Second, he listed Suggs as part of this group, and he's also descending and has been hurt bad. Third, those fronts must rotate heavily so that they don't wear down, and the Browns' depth on the Dline might be the best in the NFL. Any member of this rotation could start for other teams.
He gives the Ravens the edge at linebacker. I'd go the other way. Sheard and Kruger are kicking butt and Dansby is as good as he was last season.
He calls the offensive lines a wash, but the Browns' line includes two Pro Bowlers and a rookie who Mel Kiper just projected as a future Pro Bowler. The two current guys are the left tackle and center.
My prognosis: Acute Homeritis. Guys like this get government jobs in the intelligence community because they know somebody. Then they get people killed, us in trouble, and lie to congress.
Terry Pluto came up with the best pregame analysis I've heard or read. The two teams are like twins on both sides of the ball.
This even includes the wide recievers, as Steve Smith is a little shrimp too. Hawkins and the rookie microbe no doubt want to be Steve Smith, and so far so good.
The Browns do have several real edges. These are the secondary, D-line depth, tight end, and (in reality) offensive line. The Ravens real edges are at wide reciever and quarterback, and the quarterback part is what will make this a tough one.
Also, the Browns have sucked against the run so far, and that's scary vs. this team. However, as Pluto partly pointed out, the Browns used seven defensive backs for the majority of the game vs. the Saints, depriving Brees out of every target except Graham.
He sort of conceded the run because he feared Drew Brees more.
The Browns won't do that vs. the Ravens. This is a more physical team.
Terry pointed out that Flacco has been burning almost every blitze. But last week vs. the Saints, even with the seven DBs, the Browns were able to pressure Brees more often than not with three and four passrushers.
Not only is the Ravens offensive line not as good as the Browns', but they're not as good as the Saints offensive line either.
The Ravens overall are better than the Steelers, and not as good as the Bengals. Hoyer has yet to play a whole freaking game dammit, and even with the seven DB's last week, that run defense is scary.
Still, it's in Cleveland, and the Browns do have the overall talent edge, so I think...
Man, it's hard to pick them, isn't it? I can see how past experience poisons ones mind against the new coaches, players, systems, front office and owner.
So I'll make my brain override my heart and pick the Browns in a squeaker based on objective facts.
A couple more comments: Mack and Byner were much different from eachother, and operated together in a two-back ("21") system. They could wind up as that productive, but to compare them otherwise isn't accurate.
However, now that Kyle Shanahan has seen that they can both catch passes, and we can reasonably expect big backs to block, he might install and deploy more two-back sets to exploit two of his top offensive weapons more.
But I don't know--I'm just guessing. They might just do it this week vs. the Ravens, though, as a way to show them something they haven't seen on film yet. Might screw them up.
More guessing what do I know?
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