Browns Analysis Analysis

I was trying the figure out the rationale behind most analyists placing the Browns in the bottom third, including at the very bottom, of the power rankings despite the fact that they had a top 7 or 8 defense last season.  

Before Dansby, Whitner, Gilbert, Desir, and Kirksy.  Uh--that's four new starters and key depth.  Uh...there are only eleven players on the defense, ok?  These are all upgrades, ok?

That was without Des Bryant.

The new defense has to be considered a top five based on talent.  The defensive line certainly is, whether the front is three or four.  Inside linebacker too.  I don't know why it's so hard for some people to get this, but 3-4 ILB's under 240 lbs are pretty common, and Kirksy is fine.

Last year's scheme and this year's use some Tampa 2 principles sometimes, with a fast linebacker patrolling the intermediate middle on passing downs.  Roberts tried to do this last season, and failed.  Kirksey is taller, and has already done a lot of it quite effectively in college.

Dansby is Dansby.  Top five deal with it.

OLB:  Kruger is coming in a little lighter and looks better, Quentin Groves is well past his prime but still effective...I'm glad to see Mingo in coverage some more, because he can definitely do that well.  He moves like a huge cornerback and can neutralize most tight ends.

Those of us with human brains expect improvement in him as a pass rusher from year one to year two.  As I've tried to explain, this is not unusual.

There was never anything wrong with Jabaal Sheard as a passrusher, and last season was his first ever as a linebacker.  Any of these guys can put their hands down and become a DE.

I believe they'll be top five, but I'll be conservative and call the OLB corps merely top ten.

The secondary overall will easily be top five once Gilbert gets rid of the rough edges.  Cornerback today has to list three guys including a slot guy, and right now Buster Skrine is fighting Gilbert off on the outside and having a temendous camp.  He'll be great on the slot guys.

Whitner is Whitner.  I've read one stubborn Gipson-bashing analysis calling the UFA out of position, and blaming him for all sorts of mayhem.

Ok look:  Haden was sometimes left on an island by design so that Gipson could back up the shorter and less experienced Skrine. This is called "rolling coverage".  Whenever Haden got burned, this guy and others no doubt blamed Gipson.  For not being in two places at once.

The Tampa-2-like component made an ILB responsible for the intermediate middle, while Gipson was up high looking for leaks, and no doubt this guy and others blamed Gipson for every Roberts burn as well.

Sure, he got some of his picks off deflections.  This was because he was where he was supposed to be--keeping the reciever in front of him,  and making sure there couldn't be a big play.  Those deflections are one of the reasons free safeties stay "off" recievers.  It encourages the QB to make contested throws into single coverage, and puts the safety in-line for a defection or jarring hit.  

Gipson was also only in his second season overall, and his first as a starter, and will be even better this season.

I'll be nice to the ham-handed analyst and demote a top five safety corps to top ten happy now?

Top five defense.  

Quarterback had a ton to do with the low power rankings, and this is understandable.  I merely think that the evaluations were incorrect.  

Most of the outsiders scoff at the notion of Manziel not opening the season as the new starter, because to them Hoyer is a career backup with unimpressive overall stats, and that's all.

They are wrong.

They feel that the raw rookie playing in a West Coast system will make a ton of mistakes.  They would be right, if they were right about his taking over as the starter right away.  In those circumstances, you couldn't rate the Browns quarterback above the bottom third in the league.  

Even of they could grasp the fact that Shanahan and Pettine want to keep their jobs, they would still rank Hoyer no higher than the bottom five.  

They are wrong.

Back here on planet Reality, I'm just not sure where to put Hoyer/Manziel in the rankings.  It's true that Hoyer's sample size is microscopic, that the language and some elements of Shanahan's system will be new to him too, and that he won't have good old Josh this time.

But he is smart, accurate, and decisive.  Per Tony Grossi, his already good enough arm looks stronger.  Johnny he aint, but he can run Shanahans' whole offense as it stands.  He'll be helped by effective screen-play blocking, better protection, better field position, and a stronger running game.

I know!  I'll call him Trent Dilfer and say he's maybe #21.  I feel he's much better than that, but others will try to find ways to rank him #33 or lower.  Vote for me.  I'm sane!

The backfield?  Are you kidding me?  THREE deep in one-cut tackle-breaking studs!  Top five!  Understatement!

TE?  I wish I had a better handle on how much progress Gray has made, but there's Cameron and an excellent blocker, so this is top five as well.

WR: Wow...With Gordon top five.  Without him...well it sure won't suck, and there are a ton of great slot guys in addition to Hawkins.  I'll just put them in the top half, ok?  Make it top 15.  If you think it should be lower, you're a permabasher and should seek help.

Oline: Bitonio at left guard in this scheme fits right in with his two bookends, Mack and Thomas.  He'll get out in front of the screens, pull left and right, trap, and whatever else you want.  He's not just athletic and fast, but he's also a mauler.  I wanted the big wide reciever, but in retrospect I love this pick--HUGE upgrade!

I'm rooting for the young guys to emerge and grab right guard and concievably tackle, but for now pencil McQuistan in at RG and leave Schwartze at RT and call this a top five Oline.  Pass blocking and run-blocking both.

I'm sorry to to repeat this, but again: pat Kirwan predicted that whoever the Browns quarterback was would be playing from behind and be in second and third and longs and have to pass a lot...

What has he been smoking?  Even if defenses have zero respect for the pass and stack the fronts all day, their own offense still has to score on this defense.  Why does Pat see this defense giving up points?  Where the hell does he get that?

And since when did stacked fronts EVER stop a Shanahan offense from running ball and making monkeys of everybody with play-action?  GO AHEAD and stack the front!

So a Shanahan comes to Cleveland and now it won't work any more?

No--no Pat's not stupid.  Just insane.  That must be it.  Pat Kirwan has this pathological hatred of the Browns because Bernie Kosar went into double overtime vs his Jets and beat him and he wakes up screaming.  That must be it!  I should check--maybe that got him fired or something!

And he probably has a shrine in a closet somewhere with candles and stuff, and a statue of Bill Cowher...probably painted his house black and gold, yeah...

But seriously, Hoyerbasher Sam Wyche won the Superbowl with Trent Dilfer, a running game, and a defense.  This Browns team looks a lot like that team.  They may not win the Superbowl, but they'll win.