Saturday, June 14, 2014

Marqueis Gray and Mingo: Told Ya!

First let me credit Sam Ingro from Buckeye State Sports for filling out my earlier blog references to Marqueis Gray.  Sam, who has an actual readership, said what I said about the fullback in a zone-blocking scheme not blocking the same way as a conventional battering ram.

He expressed it better.  I will one-up him: A conventional blocking fullback hits the hole, and his target is the guy who fills it after all the other hats are on all the players they can block.  He's usually blowing up a safety or a linebacker.

In the hole, these players can "shrink", and get under a tall fullback's pads and deprive him of leverage.  He might sort of fall on top of them (if he doesn't flip over them), but it still creates a pile-up that the running back has to slow down and run around.

In the zone scheme, there is no hole, and the fullback blocks in space.  Nobody is planted or "squared up".  Here a powerful, fast guy who is 6'4" could excel because he has more reach, and it's more about getting in the way, and nudging people; either giving them an extra shove to speed them on their way, or chucking them just as they're trying to change directions to intercept the cutback.

Poor Tony Grossi doesn't seem to get this.  No helmets flying off.   Nobody on their back.

But Sam also hit what I missed: Gray at fullback as a reciever.  A reciever who's almost as fast as Jordon Cameron.

In view of the questions at (outside) wide reciever, it makes a lot of sense for Kyle Shanahan to use a pass-catching fullback.

As I've said before, ignore the labels.  Call Gray what you want: H-back or fullback.  He may well be one of the better players Kyle has to work with, and he'll find a place for him, period.

Some guy on Rant Sports saw the Gray experiment at fullback.  He correctly pointed out that he might be too tall for it.  But this writer seemed oblivious to the difference a zone scheme represented, and got downright stupid in concluding that this was Gray's last chance to make the roster.

He can catch and run with the ball.  He's the only viable depth behind Cameron for what Cameron does.  Why would you cut him, even if he doesn't turn out to be a good blocking fullback?

Duh.

Now Mike Pettine has said that Jabaal Sheard is a "rush" linebacker, and he's putting his hand in the dirt more.  Meanwhile, he said that Mingo would be in coverage more.

I told you so.  You can quit laughing now.

Pettine runs a hybrid defense, and that's not just lip service.  Sheard can't run with tight ends, but Mingo can.  This is undervalued, and Mike knows it.  Tight ends have killed this defense.

It's not a new concept either.  The best passrusher the Browns ever had, Clay Matthews, sometimes lined up in the tight end's face and eliminated him as a reciever.  That's because when Hanford and Minni took the wide-outs off the QB's table, offenses started hitting tight ends quick underneath them.  Clay took care of that.

Another part of this is Christian Kirksey, who was an outstanding weakside 4-3 linebacker in college.  While he will play "inside" a lot here, he can also return to this position in a 4-3.

And if you think about it, this defense might just be better suited for 4-3 than 3-4 anyway, with Kirksey weak, Mingo strong, and Sheard at DE.

Regardless, they'll get their best players on the field, however they have to do it.

Jim O'Neal has the people at every level to match up with any offense, just as Marqueis Gray is one guy who could help Kyle Shanahan attack any defense.  (Note on that: He can still play tight end).

Once things shake out, Rubin will mostly be a rotational nose tackle and a defensive tackle.  Despite what one clueless writer wrote, these positions are where john Hughes fits.  Hughes does't belong at DE.

Armonty Bryant, who pre-draft was tried out at, and considered as, a 3-4 OLB, is being experimented with there by the new regime.  Last season, he was retained on the active roster as a defensive end, hoping to build himself up to the size required there.

He's a speed rush guy, who might now even be comparable to Sheard.

Billy Winn and Des Bryant are 3-4 defensive ends or 4-3 tackles.

Per Mike Carrucci, Greg Robertson is responding admirably to Kirksey's challenge inside, and made his own bones as a rookie weakside 4-3 linebacker.  According to Mike, he's much improved in coverage.  We all may have been a bit premature in burying the guy.

This means better depth at inside linebacker and 4-3 outside linebacker than we'd thought.

Down, distance, opposing tackles, and scores aside, Kevious Mingo is one example.  If the opposing team has a dangerous passcatching tight end, he might be covering him, and the look might be more 4-3.  If it's a "normal" tight end, it's more 3-4, and he rotates in and attacks most of the time.

If Robertson's apparent improvement is real,  both he and Kirksey can be kept fresh in rotation.  The venerable Karlos Dansby need not be asked to play every down by any means...it will be very hard to wear these guys down.

4-3 and 3-4 are labels anyway, and the most commonly used defenses will probably have to be nickels and dimes.  

How 'bout 4-1, 4-2, 3-2 and 3-3?  The new Browns can do all of these easily, and often with the same players.  That will help a whole lot vs Pittsburgh's new no-huddle attack.

It doesn't matter who starts, either.  Rotations will be heavy, and all of these guys will play a lot.

I keep saying this, but I've got to say it again: Think outside the box.


Sunday, June 8, 2014

Browns, Writers, and the AFC North

Peter Smith on Fansided doesn't like this writer, showing bad taste, but he does know football.  He wrote another great article on what Bitonio at left guard probably means with these quarterbacks and Kyle Shanahan.

I recommend this article, but have some stuff to add that Pete didn't mention:

1: The right defensive end (or 3-4 OLB) will be less likely to commit to an outside pass-rush, as he could take himself out of the play and cede the edge.

2: If Pete is right about the rollout threat freezing the LDE or OLB to the right, then Schwartze shouldn't need much help from the tight end.  In fact if the guy doesn't get out of the way, Schwartze can plant him.

3: What is it with the writers this guy just took on?  One of them is ok, but the rest are really bad.  Peter, is this like you're the bride and you put all your maids in ugly dresses?  The ugly girlfriend who makes you look better?

Why don't you just make your rag the best?

Then there's the Bleacher Report.

Well, a couple of those guys are pinheads, but I have to admit they don't suck, and have a couple guys who are almost as good as my humble self.

This article was really good.  And true: Joe Banner did leave the team well-off.  He deserves credit for that.  And among his picks were both Farmer and Pettine.

This offseason was kind of a surge which capitalized on the base Joe built.  Ray Farmer used the extra picks he got to help accomplish this.

Lately, the guys on NFL Radio are ranting and raving about the Steelers offseason.

This is pretty disgusting, since the Browns upgraded a lot more than the Steelers did.  Sure, as usual the Steelers did well with the ammo they had in the draft, but didn't do nearly as well as the Browns did.  This is prejudice.

You can compare the two teams position by position.  Who has the better and deeper backfield?  No I mean once you look past the HYPE, who does?

Comparing the offensive lines is downright laughable.  Tight end?  Stop it you're killing me!  (Miller was a stud but he's OLD).

You'd have to give Big Ben the nod.  We hate him, but he's really really good when healthy and you can't deny it.

Now he's got a new microscopic scatback who can do the slot thing and hit a home run from anywhere, and a very good big new reliable wide reciever, and a decent corps in general.

But I believe that Hoyer will be the Hoyer who beat Cincinnati, and that Manziel will (eventually) be better.  For now, I'll take Hoyer vs. Big Ben and you can laugh at me for it.  He most certainly does NOT suck.

Wide reciever--are the Steelers really better?  Do they have a better slot guy?  No.  And now there are twelve or thirteen guys fighting for roster spots, including four solid-to-excellent veterans.  

Yes, some are old, and there are durability and health issues, but out of this group--and the young guys everybody else ignores, there should emerge a solid corps.

You could go over the whole defense, level by level, and an objective person couldn't rate any of the Steelers units above the Browns based on talent.

Now, they will all pick the Steelers to finish ahead of the Browns (and maybe even the Bengals), based on...what?

Sure, quarterback is very important, and you have to give the Big guy his props.  But he's not the whole damn team--isn't this getting rediculous?

Is Tomlin that great?  Better than Pettine?  This is debatable--give the new guy his chance and let's see.

Think with your brain.  The AFC North probably comes down to a battle of Ohio.

Update: Laveon Bell turned into Jim Brown during the offseason.  Honest!




Sunday, June 1, 2014

Browns Analysis Analysis

I was trying the figure out the rationale behind most analyists placing the Browns in the bottom third, including at the very bottom, of the power rankings despite the fact that they had a top 7 or 8 defense last season.  

Before Dansby, Whitner, Gilbert, Desir, and Kirksy.  Uh--that's four new starters and key depth.  Uh...there are only eleven players on the defense, ok?  These are all upgrades, ok?

That was without Des Bryant.

The new defense has to be considered a top five based on talent.  The defensive line certainly is, whether the front is three or four.  Inside linebacker too.  I don't know why it's so hard for some people to get this, but 3-4 ILB's under 240 lbs are pretty common, and Kirksy is fine.

Last year's scheme and this year's use some Tampa 2 principles sometimes, with a fast linebacker patrolling the intermediate middle on passing downs.  Roberts tried to do this last season, and failed.  Kirksey is taller, and has already done a lot of it quite effectively in college.

Dansby is Dansby.  Top five deal with it.

OLB:  Kruger is coming in a little lighter and looks better, Quentin Groves is well past his prime but still effective...I'm glad to see Mingo in coverage some more, because he can definitely do that well.  He moves like a huge cornerback and can neutralize most tight ends.

Those of us with human brains expect improvement in him as a pass rusher from year one to year two.  As I've tried to explain, this is not unusual.

There was never anything wrong with Jabaal Sheard as a passrusher, and last season was his first ever as a linebacker.  Any of these guys can put their hands down and become a DE.

I believe they'll be top five, but I'll be conservative and call the OLB corps merely top ten.

The secondary overall will easily be top five once Gilbert gets rid of the rough edges.  Cornerback today has to list three guys including a slot guy, and right now Buster Skrine is fighting Gilbert off on the outside and having a temendous camp.  He'll be great on the slot guys.

Whitner is Whitner.  I've read one stubborn Gipson-bashing analysis calling the UFA out of position, and blaming him for all sorts of mayhem.

Ok look:  Haden was sometimes left on an island by design so that Gipson could back up the shorter and less experienced Skrine. This is called "rolling coverage".  Whenever Haden got burned, this guy and others no doubt blamed Gipson.  For not being in two places at once.

The Tampa-2-like component made an ILB responsible for the intermediate middle, while Gipson was up high looking for leaks, and no doubt this guy and others blamed Gipson for every Roberts burn as well.

Sure, he got some of his picks off deflections.  This was because he was where he was supposed to be--keeping the reciever in front of him,  and making sure there couldn't be a big play.  Those deflections are one of the reasons free safeties stay "off" recievers.  It encourages the QB to make contested throws into single coverage, and puts the safety in-line for a defection or jarring hit.  

Gipson was also only in his second season overall, and his first as a starter, and will be even better this season.

I'll be nice to the ham-handed analyst and demote a top five safety corps to top ten happy now?

Top five defense.  

Quarterback had a ton to do with the low power rankings, and this is understandable.  I merely think that the evaluations were incorrect.  

Most of the outsiders scoff at the notion of Manziel not opening the season as the new starter, because to them Hoyer is a career backup with unimpressive overall stats, and that's all.

They are wrong.

They feel that the raw rookie playing in a West Coast system will make a ton of mistakes.  They would be right, if they were right about his taking over as the starter right away.  In those circumstances, you couldn't rate the Browns quarterback above the bottom third in the league.  

Even of they could grasp the fact that Shanahan and Pettine want to keep their jobs, they would still rank Hoyer no higher than the bottom five.  

They are wrong.

Back here on planet Reality, I'm just not sure where to put Hoyer/Manziel in the rankings.  It's true that Hoyer's sample size is microscopic, that the language and some elements of Shanahan's system will be new to him too, and that he won't have good old Josh this time.

But he is smart, accurate, and decisive.  Per Tony Grossi, his already good enough arm looks stronger.  Johnny he aint, but he can run Shanahans' whole offense as it stands.  He'll be helped by effective screen-play blocking, better protection, better field position, and a stronger running game.

I know!  I'll call him Trent Dilfer and say he's maybe #21.  I feel he's much better than that, but others will try to find ways to rank him #33 or lower.  Vote for me.  I'm sane!

The backfield?  Are you kidding me?  THREE deep in one-cut tackle-breaking studs!  Top five!  Understatement!

TE?  I wish I had a better handle on how much progress Gray has made, but there's Cameron and an excellent blocker, so this is top five as well.

WR: Wow...With Gordon top five.  Without him...well it sure won't suck, and there are a ton of great slot guys in addition to Hawkins.  I'll just put them in the top half, ok?  Make it top 15.  If you think it should be lower, you're a permabasher and should seek help.

Oline: Bitonio at left guard in this scheme fits right in with his two bookends, Mack and Thomas.  He'll get out in front of the screens, pull left and right, trap, and whatever else you want.  He's not just athletic and fast, but he's also a mauler.  I wanted the big wide reciever, but in retrospect I love this pick--HUGE upgrade!

I'm rooting for the young guys to emerge and grab right guard and concievably tackle, but for now pencil McQuistan in at RG and leave Schwartze at RT and call this a top five Oline.  Pass blocking and run-blocking both.

I'm sorry to to repeat this, but again: pat Kirwan predicted that whoever the Browns quarterback was would be playing from behind and be in second and third and longs and have to pass a lot...

What has he been smoking?  Even if defenses have zero respect for the pass and stack the fronts all day, their own offense still has to score on this defense.  Why does Pat see this defense giving up points?  Where the hell does he get that?

And since when did stacked fronts EVER stop a Shanahan offense from running ball and making monkeys of everybody with play-action?  GO AHEAD and stack the front!

So a Shanahan comes to Cleveland and now it won't work any more?

No--no Pat's not stupid.  Just insane.  That must be it.  Pat Kirwan has this pathological hatred of the Browns because Bernie Kosar went into double overtime vs his Jets and beat him and he wakes up screaming.  That must be it!  I should check--maybe that got him fired or something!

And he probably has a shrine in a closet somewhere with candles and stuff, and a statue of Bill Cowher...probably painted his house black and gold, yeah...

But seriously, Hoyerbasher Sam Wyche won the Superbowl with Trent Dilfer, a running game, and a defense.  This Browns team looks a lot like that team.  They may not win the Superbowl, but they'll win.