Ohio State fans won't be surprised by this, and one of them first alerted me to this guy:
Ken Guiton is a 6'3" senior quarterback who didn't even start as a senior, but racked up astronomical stats in his few opportunities (two starts).
Naturally, he wasn't even invited to the combine, and nobody in media has even scouted him.
Not being a big Buckeye fan myself, I can only go by his stats.
For sure, he can run--averaging over 8 YPC. But his TD/INT ratio is excellent, and his completion percentage for 2013 was over 68%. His average completion was for around ten yards in '13.
I don't know if he has a strong arm, how well he reads defenses, how quick he releases the ball, or any of those other details about him.
And yeah, he played for one of the best teams in college football, with a little help from Carlos Hyde. And yeah, you wonder why Irvin Meyer didn't start him.
I'm just sayin, Tom Brady has sort of a similar background in college...
We've got a version of him here in Brian Hoyer.
He could be drafted very late, if not signed as a free agent. With his limited experience, he's a project unless, like Brady, he's a brain and has football OCD (that bar is pretty high).
I love the underdogs. Ray could have this guy up his sleeve.
Monday, February 24, 2014
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Further Evolved Browns Draft Analysis
Up til now, I've been sort of drawn back to the herd and started thinking inside a box again. I was gone for awhile, but I'm back now:
Who says that Kyle Shanahan has to run the same offense he did under his father? Who says he has to have a strong-armed quarterback? Who declared him incapable of adapting his system to his personnel?
I took Jimmy Garropollo off the Browns' board based on arm strength, but I'm putting him back now.
Josh who? Slow down: Sure, we saw some spectacular deep catches, but more often he caught shallow slants and crosses (outside in or inside out), and took them to the house just like Jerry Rice. Gordon can do it all, and fits any offense.
Cameron? I don't need to even explain how he'd fit, do I?
Shanahan adapted his offense to RG3--see? He can actually think! Honest!
And it's not rocket science, ya know? All the short slants and crosses are in his playbook already. Should he draft a Garopollo or another guy without a strong arm, it's no big deal.
Bill Walsh's West Coast featured Popgun Montana, and was actually physical and run-oriented. It just didn't seem to matter that the defense didn't have to worry about deep passes.
Make no mistake: I think that probably Farmer/Shanahan/Pettine would like to see Bridgewater or Bortles (and not Manziel) at number four, but once again: What if the last QB is indeed Manziel, like I'm betting it will be?
Farmer will take him, right? WRONG! (OK here again I don't know for sure but bear with me).
Bill Polian summed it up best: It is possible for Manziel to be a successful NFL quarterback, but the odds are against him. For every Brees or Wilson, there are more than ten short/small quarterbacks who failed. If he's there late in the first or high in the second, you nab him. But at number four overall, you're betting a longshot on a guy that small.
There's more to it, of course. Sometimes his primary reciever is open, and he holds the ball. How much was him and how much was Evans? Why were 48% of Evans' receptions come-backs (as in he's moving back towards the quarterback, who is scrambling, several seconds after the snap)?
You're betting that he can learn to stay in the pocket--and see the field from it. You're betting that he can read through his progressions. That he won't get hospitalized in his second game.
If Farmer pulls the trigger on Manziel, he's putting his name on it. He's almost literally betting his carreer on a longshot.
And how did Farmer describe his ideal quarterback? Well, he described Rodney Hoyerfield!
However, at number four, the whole world is convinced that Farmer can't get his card to the podium fast enough....what's taking so long? Who's he on the phone with? Could he actually be considering trading this golden opportunity to get this future hall of fame quarterback when he's stuck with that bum Moyer...Boyer--what's his name?
Oh. My. God. With the fourth pick, the Oakland Raiders select Johnny Manziel.
That's another high second rounder (maybe more), and now the bidding is for Sammy Watkins. Surely Farmer won't even consider letting that guy go, but look at this...who's he talking to this time?
"It might not be who you think it is." Well, who might Farmer's quarterback be? Maybe Ray called old friend Tony Dungee, and Dungee said Aaron Murray.
He's another short guy--listed at 6'1". He tore his anterior cruciate ligament earlier this season.
Naturally there are knocks on him over and above his size, but if you read anybody writing about arm strength being one of those issues, delete them and don't visit them anymore. I first heard of him from one of the safeties at the combine who had played against him.
Prior to his injury, Tony Dungee predicted he might be the top-rated passer in this draft.
Most pundits don't agree, and now with his injury, he's almost off the map.
CBS Sports guesses that if he can recover enough to perform at his pro day, and teams think he can play as a rookie, he could be taken within the first two rounds.
But get this straight: The Browns have a quarterback, and his name is BRIAN HOYER dammit. Taking Murray after parlaying their top pick into more in this deepest draft in several years might just be what Ray Farmer is plotting.
Don't worry, Ray. Nobody reads this, except...oh crap let's see who steals it from me and pretends they thought of it themselves. At least then I'll be able to confirm who rejected my submission but mines me for original thoughts. How low is that?
But still don't worry Ray. Nobody will believe it. Unless another GM reads this, I mean.
Shaun Heidrick of Yahoo Sports cites three reasons why the Browns MUST draft a quarterback at number four, but his premises are flawed.
First, like everybody else, he assumes that Brian Hoyer just sort of lucked out or something for nine quarters and will fall on his face. That's a mighty big and illogical assumption. The odds favor a continuation of the extant trend.
Second, he assumes that Manziel is all that, and he might not be. You don't take a guy fourth overall unless you're pretty damn sure he'll make you look good. Shaun might be sold on Johnny, but needs to admit that Ray Farmer probably knows better than he does.
Turning to free agency, this is an awesome year for wide recievers. The draft is chock full of them, and there will be a glut of veteran free agents. This will drive the "prices" down.
In the draft, Watkins is a truly exceptional guy who will be drafted very high, but after that there are so many available in both markets that they'll slide down the draft boards, and come cheap as veterans.
Andy McNamara of the Bleacher Report, who uses the words "desperate" and "desperately" way way too often, wrote a really good piece on veteran free agents the Browns should target.
I hope he's not one of the people ripping me off for original thoughts, but he does comprehend that Kyle Shanahan wants to use zone-blocking, and will want athletic guards.
That's why he suggests John Asamoah of the Chiefs. The Browns have a great shot at him too, as after an injury he was unable to reclaim his starting job from Mitchell Schwartze's brother.
I wonder (don't know) what kind of blocking Andy Reid likes to use, but I know that Schwartze is bigger, and better-suited to a man scheme. Asamoah is a proven commodity, only 25, and wouldn't break the bank.
Andy also likes Rex Grossman, who knows Shanahan's scheme. He's 33, but we're talking about a veteran backup and leader here. Between him and Jason Campbell I lean toward Grossman, who at times in his carreer has been pretty damn good. Sometimes.
Julian Edelman hell yes. Donald Butler oh yeah...
By the way, there's no guarantee that the Browns will want to pay D'Qwell Jackson nine million cap dollars ya know? Rubin is younger, but is he worth that much? I love these guys, but I'm as cold-blooded as Belichick.
And CB Sam Shields--that would be awesome, and make this secondary downright dominating.
Unfortunately, other than Grossman and Asamoah, these players' teams will try hard to re-sign them. If they don't, others could drive the price up too high. I'd love to land just one of these other guys to really help this team.
By the way, Andy considers Edelman strictly a slot guy, but he can play outside as well.
I'm not as concerned about the slot as others are, as Josh Cooper late in his second season flashed some good possession stuff, and Travis Benjamin could yet emerge is a scary slot guy.
I can't find the article so that I can provide a link and attribution, as any honorable writer would, but another smart person suggested LeGarrette Blount as a free agent target. I've had the same thought.
The guy is a monster! He could wreak havoc in a zone-blocking scheme!
Of course, if Ray trades down one or three times, Carlos Hyde is no problem...
Who says that Kyle Shanahan has to run the same offense he did under his father? Who says he has to have a strong-armed quarterback? Who declared him incapable of adapting his system to his personnel?
I took Jimmy Garropollo off the Browns' board based on arm strength, but I'm putting him back now.
Josh who? Slow down: Sure, we saw some spectacular deep catches, but more often he caught shallow slants and crosses (outside in or inside out), and took them to the house just like Jerry Rice. Gordon can do it all, and fits any offense.
Cameron? I don't need to even explain how he'd fit, do I?
Shanahan adapted his offense to RG3--see? He can actually think! Honest!
And it's not rocket science, ya know? All the short slants and crosses are in his playbook already. Should he draft a Garopollo or another guy without a strong arm, it's no big deal.
Bill Walsh's West Coast featured Popgun Montana, and was actually physical and run-oriented. It just didn't seem to matter that the defense didn't have to worry about deep passes.
Make no mistake: I think that probably Farmer/Shanahan/Pettine would like to see Bridgewater or Bortles (and not Manziel) at number four, but once again: What if the last QB is indeed Manziel, like I'm betting it will be?
Farmer will take him, right? WRONG! (OK here again I don't know for sure but bear with me).
Bill Polian summed it up best: It is possible for Manziel to be a successful NFL quarterback, but the odds are against him. For every Brees or Wilson, there are more than ten short/small quarterbacks who failed. If he's there late in the first or high in the second, you nab him. But at number four overall, you're betting a longshot on a guy that small.
There's more to it, of course. Sometimes his primary reciever is open, and he holds the ball. How much was him and how much was Evans? Why were 48% of Evans' receptions come-backs (as in he's moving back towards the quarterback, who is scrambling, several seconds after the snap)?
You're betting that he can learn to stay in the pocket--and see the field from it. You're betting that he can read through his progressions. That he won't get hospitalized in his second game.
If Farmer pulls the trigger on Manziel, he's putting his name on it. He's almost literally betting his carreer on a longshot.
And how did Farmer describe his ideal quarterback? Well, he described Rodney Hoyerfield!
However, at number four, the whole world is convinced that Farmer can't get his card to the podium fast enough....what's taking so long? Who's he on the phone with? Could he actually be considering trading this golden opportunity to get this future hall of fame quarterback when he's stuck with that bum Moyer...Boyer--what's his name?
Oh. My. God. With the fourth pick, the Oakland Raiders select Johnny Manziel.
That's another high second rounder (maybe more), and now the bidding is for Sammy Watkins. Surely Farmer won't even consider letting that guy go, but look at this...who's he talking to this time?
"It might not be who you think it is." Well, who might Farmer's quarterback be? Maybe Ray called old friend Tony Dungee, and Dungee said Aaron Murray.
He's another short guy--listed at 6'1". He tore his anterior cruciate ligament earlier this season.
Naturally there are knocks on him over and above his size, but if you read anybody writing about arm strength being one of those issues, delete them and don't visit them anymore. I first heard of him from one of the safeties at the combine who had played against him.
Prior to his injury, Tony Dungee predicted he might be the top-rated passer in this draft.
Most pundits don't agree, and now with his injury, he's almost off the map.
CBS Sports guesses that if he can recover enough to perform at his pro day, and teams think he can play as a rookie, he could be taken within the first two rounds.
But get this straight: The Browns have a quarterback, and his name is BRIAN HOYER dammit. Taking Murray after parlaying their top pick into more in this deepest draft in several years might just be what Ray Farmer is plotting.
Don't worry, Ray. Nobody reads this, except...oh crap let's see who steals it from me and pretends they thought of it themselves. At least then I'll be able to confirm who rejected my submission but mines me for original thoughts. How low is that?
But still don't worry Ray. Nobody will believe it. Unless another GM reads this, I mean.
Shaun Heidrick of Yahoo Sports cites three reasons why the Browns MUST draft a quarterback at number four, but his premises are flawed.
First, like everybody else, he assumes that Brian Hoyer just sort of lucked out or something for nine quarters and will fall on his face. That's a mighty big and illogical assumption. The odds favor a continuation of the extant trend.
Second, he assumes that Manziel is all that, and he might not be. You don't take a guy fourth overall unless you're pretty damn sure he'll make you look good. Shaun might be sold on Johnny, but needs to admit that Ray Farmer probably knows better than he does.
Turning to free agency, this is an awesome year for wide recievers. The draft is chock full of them, and there will be a glut of veteran free agents. This will drive the "prices" down.
In the draft, Watkins is a truly exceptional guy who will be drafted very high, but after that there are so many available in both markets that they'll slide down the draft boards, and come cheap as veterans.
Andy McNamara of the Bleacher Report, who uses the words "desperate" and "desperately" way way too often, wrote a really good piece on veteran free agents the Browns should target.
I hope he's not one of the people ripping me off for original thoughts, but he does comprehend that Kyle Shanahan wants to use zone-blocking, and will want athletic guards.
That's why he suggests John Asamoah of the Chiefs. The Browns have a great shot at him too, as after an injury he was unable to reclaim his starting job from Mitchell Schwartze's brother.
I wonder (don't know) what kind of blocking Andy Reid likes to use, but I know that Schwartze is bigger, and better-suited to a man scheme. Asamoah is a proven commodity, only 25, and wouldn't break the bank.
Andy also likes Rex Grossman, who knows Shanahan's scheme. He's 33, but we're talking about a veteran backup and leader here. Between him and Jason Campbell I lean toward Grossman, who at times in his carreer has been pretty damn good. Sometimes.
Julian Edelman hell yes. Donald Butler oh yeah...
By the way, there's no guarantee that the Browns will want to pay D'Qwell Jackson nine million cap dollars ya know? Rubin is younger, but is he worth that much? I love these guys, but I'm as cold-blooded as Belichick.
And CB Sam Shields--that would be awesome, and make this secondary downright dominating.
Unfortunately, other than Grossman and Asamoah, these players' teams will try hard to re-sign them. If they don't, others could drive the price up too high. I'd love to land just one of these other guys to really help this team.
By the way, Andy considers Edelman strictly a slot guy, but he can play outside as well.
I'm not as concerned about the slot as others are, as Josh Cooper late in his second season flashed some good possession stuff, and Travis Benjamin could yet emerge is a scary slot guy.
I can't find the article so that I can provide a link and attribution, as any honorable writer would, but another smart person suggested LeGarrette Blount as a free agent target. I've had the same thought.
The guy is a monster! He could wreak havoc in a zone-blocking scheme!
Of course, if Ray trades down one or three times, Carlos Hyde is no problem...
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Ray's Quarterback Edited
First, english is my first language, so I should translate what Ray Farmer said for many of you: After saying he had a quarterback in mind, he said "He might not be (who you're thinking)".
"Might not" is not the same as "won't". Look these words up.
Anyway, what if it's not Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel?
NOTE: I don't believe that it was ever Manziel. I mean LaCanfora--yeah right. Manziel is a great player who most scouts and GMs I've heard from don't believe will EVER be a pocket passer. He's NOT like Brees or Wilson, and he WILL get the snot beat out of him.
Also. based on what I've heard from these legitimate experts, Manziel is the one most likely to be there at #4, and most of the Manziel hype is being manufactured or hallucinated by guys like LaCanfora.
It's possible that Ray could trade up for Bridgewater or Bortles, but back to the premise: Ray's guy is none of those three (HYPOTHETICAL DO YOU UNDERSTAND?)
My first thought was David Carr, but I now know that he had a dismal Bowl game. Big deal he kicked ass at the combine. But finally I hit secondroundstats.com and checked out the four top guys, including Carr.
Wow. Carr's completion percentage drops below 50% under pressure, while the other guys remain over 56%. Scouts have also questioned his accuracy.
I'm not running to the bank with this, since it could be that Carr is more willing to throw the ball away; it could be a good thing, and lines up with his really good TD/INT ratio. Still, the other three DID deliver under pressure more often, so it's got to be a red flag.
LATE EDIT: Carr is the worst on passes over 20 yards, so questions about his accuracy resonate. I'm off the Carr wagon.
Somebody else I know had that red flag. I think it was Brandon Wedone.
Still, Farmer knows best. We'll see.
Cousins? Could be, I guess. But Browns fans only know that he came in as a rookie and tore the Browns apart. While we were asleep, he started several games for Philly in his second year and sucked. (Well so did RG3 so it could be a team thing there's the asterisk).
It's not Garropollo(sp?). That guy is a West Coast QB with a Colt McCoy arm.
Mallet? I don't know. I hear all the hype, but it's just that. Only Farmer knows.
Josh Freeman? Don't laugh. I don't know what happened, but he was damn good for awhile and he'd be dirt-cheap (low risk).
If there's anybody else in this draft who might develop, I can't find him.
So I'm wildly guessing that possibly it's Carr, and that alarming under-pressure percentage drop just means that he knows when to throw it away.
The importance of Bowl Games is inflated in the eyes of pundits and fans. I've heard from Kirwan, Polian, and Brandt that it's not that big a deal unless it's actually the quarterback's fault.
ANOTHER LATE EDIT: Sounds like it was.
The scouting combine and Senior Bowl game means much more to scouts, as they are working against elite talent. Carr was the best QB both throughout the week and in the game.
Farmer, Pettine, and Shanahan will also have a much more accurate read on Rodney Hoyerfield than we do. Pettine will go over the 2.25 games he has on tape, and know exactly how a defensive coordinator would attack him.
He might disagree with the population of Oblivia and think he's already got a franchise quarterback.
I believe that if either Bridgewater or Bortles is there at number four, Farmer pulls the trigger. I even think that if he finds it neccessary to trade up for one of them, he might.
But if Manziel is the guy at four, I think he trades out. He'll of course be pretending he loves Manziel (no doubt he'll have it being reported as fact by guys like LaCanfora, which I think is funny).
The Raiders are pretty desperate for a quarterback, and might make a deal to move up from five. Could be worth a second round pick. And he might do it again--or take Carr who he liked all along. Maybe. I'm guessing.
I mean, he'll have all the tapes. He'll single out every pressure situation Carr faced and look for himself. Why did he miss? Was he dancing around with blown mechanics? Off his back foot? Or did he just throw it away because he's more mature than the other guys?
Note: Ray Farmer was a safety. Safeties are QB experts.
Mel Kiper has Bridgewater there for the Browns at four, and I would love for him to be right. Check him out on secondroundstats.com/!
And he might draft Manziel what do I know?
If Ray can't get a quarterback WORTH the number four pick, he will probably be able to, and absolutely should, trade down. The FOURTH-ranked wide reciever is Mike Evans.
Check him out on second round stats! A large number of his receptions were come-backs, as Manziel was scrambling--and yet his YAC yards were the highest of the four top wide recievers!!!
Although Watkins was very close, Evans also DROPPED THE FEWEST PASSES DO YOU HEAR ME?
Everybody (including Mike Mayock) is ranting about Watkins, and for sure he's a home-run hitter and yeah--the best WR in this draft. It would be awesome to have this guy AND Josh Gordon, but I'd rather have Evans and somebody else--like a really good guard or inside linebacker.
The Browns don't need another number one coverage-dictating reciever, but do need a (preferably) big, reliable number two who can move the chains and make people pay for doubling Gordon. (Make them pay by running them over...I really like that...)
And Mayock said it himself when discussing Carr at 26: If the Browns have confidence in Hoyer, why would they want a guy who, in Mayock's opinion, can be a good (but will never be a great) starter?
Good point!
I'm glad Ray is a brother. Political correctness should protect him from a lynching when if he doesn't trade his whole draft away to move up and get a not-Andrew-Luck, or if he passes on Manziel.
"Might not" is not the same as "won't". Look these words up.
Anyway, what if it's not Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel?
NOTE: I don't believe that it was ever Manziel. I mean LaCanfora--yeah right. Manziel is a great player who most scouts and GMs I've heard from don't believe will EVER be a pocket passer. He's NOT like Brees or Wilson, and he WILL get the snot beat out of him.
Also. based on what I've heard from these legitimate experts, Manziel is the one most likely to be there at #4, and most of the Manziel hype is being manufactured or hallucinated by guys like LaCanfora.
It's possible that Ray could trade up for Bridgewater or Bortles, but back to the premise: Ray's guy is none of those three (HYPOTHETICAL DO YOU UNDERSTAND?)
My first thought was David Carr, but I now know that he had a dismal Bowl game. Big deal he kicked ass at the combine. But finally I hit secondroundstats.com and checked out the four top guys, including Carr.
Wow. Carr's completion percentage drops below 50% under pressure, while the other guys remain over 56%. Scouts have also questioned his accuracy.
I'm not running to the bank with this, since it could be that Carr is more willing to throw the ball away; it could be a good thing, and lines up with his really good TD/INT ratio. Still, the other three DID deliver under pressure more often, so it's got to be a red flag.
LATE EDIT: Carr is the worst on passes over 20 yards, so questions about his accuracy resonate. I'm off the Carr wagon.
Somebody else I know had that red flag. I think it was Brandon Wedone.
Still, Farmer knows best. We'll see.
Cousins? Could be, I guess. But Browns fans only know that he came in as a rookie and tore the Browns apart. While we were asleep, he started several games for Philly in his second year and sucked. (Well so did RG3 so it could be a team thing there's the asterisk).
It's not Garropollo(sp?). That guy is a West Coast QB with a Colt McCoy arm.
Mallet? I don't know. I hear all the hype, but it's just that. Only Farmer knows.
Josh Freeman? Don't laugh. I don't know what happened, but he was damn good for awhile and he'd be dirt-cheap (low risk).
If there's anybody else in this draft who might develop, I can't find him.
So I'm wildly guessing that possibly it's Carr, and that alarming under-pressure percentage drop just means that he knows when to throw it away.
The importance of Bowl Games is inflated in the eyes of pundits and fans. I've heard from Kirwan, Polian, and Brandt that it's not that big a deal unless it's actually the quarterback's fault.
ANOTHER LATE EDIT: Sounds like it was.
The scouting combine and Senior Bowl game means much more to scouts, as they are working against elite talent. Carr was the best QB both throughout the week and in the game.
Farmer, Pettine, and Shanahan will also have a much more accurate read on Rodney Hoyerfield than we do. Pettine will go over the 2.25 games he has on tape, and know exactly how a defensive coordinator would attack him.
He might disagree with the population of Oblivia and think he's already got a franchise quarterback.
I believe that if either Bridgewater or Bortles is there at number four, Farmer pulls the trigger. I even think that if he finds it neccessary to trade up for one of them, he might.
But if Manziel is the guy at four, I think he trades out. He'll of course be pretending he loves Manziel (no doubt he'll have it being reported as fact by guys like LaCanfora, which I think is funny).
The Raiders are pretty desperate for a quarterback, and might make a deal to move up from five. Could be worth a second round pick. And he might do it again--or take Carr who he liked all along. Maybe. I'm guessing.
I mean, he'll have all the tapes. He'll single out every pressure situation Carr faced and look for himself. Why did he miss? Was he dancing around with blown mechanics? Off his back foot? Or did he just throw it away because he's more mature than the other guys?
Note: Ray Farmer was a safety. Safeties are QB experts.
Mel Kiper has Bridgewater there for the Browns at four, and I would love for him to be right. Check him out on secondroundstats.com/!
And he might draft Manziel what do I know?
If Ray can't get a quarterback WORTH the number four pick, he will probably be able to, and absolutely should, trade down. The FOURTH-ranked wide reciever is Mike Evans.
Check him out on second round stats! A large number of his receptions were come-backs, as Manziel was scrambling--and yet his YAC yards were the highest of the four top wide recievers!!!
Although Watkins was very close, Evans also DROPPED THE FEWEST PASSES DO YOU HEAR ME?
Everybody (including Mike Mayock) is ranting about Watkins, and for sure he's a home-run hitter and yeah--the best WR in this draft. It would be awesome to have this guy AND Josh Gordon, but I'd rather have Evans and somebody else--like a really good guard or inside linebacker.
The Browns don't need another number one coverage-dictating reciever, but do need a (preferably) big, reliable number two who can move the chains and make people pay for doubling Gordon. (Make them pay by running them over...I really like that...)
And Mayock said it himself when discussing Carr at 26: If the Browns have confidence in Hoyer, why would they want a guy who, in Mayock's opinion, can be a good (but will never be a great) starter?
Good point!
I'm glad Ray is a brother. Political correctness should protect him from a lynching when if he doesn't trade his whole draft away to move up and get a not-Andrew-Luck, or if he passes on Manziel.
Sunday, February 16, 2014
The Sky is Falling again
The mountain-builders are in full throat again, saying that Ray Farmer hasn't had time to evaluate players in the draft. I find this hysterical, since Ray and the scouts have all been checking these guys out throughout the college season.
Of course Farmer has a favorite quarterback in mind, and he probably settled on that opinion sometime in January. The combine and Pro Days are very helpful--and the staff is all here, all doing their jobs as if nothing had happened.
All the tapes are being studied, and all the information is available.
In other words, BIG FREAKING DEAL. Move along, nothing to see here.
I have no clue who Farmer's guy might be. I will speculate a little, and one or two of my ten readers who mine this blog for original thoughts which they steal from me...
And look, you guys: You're stealing. I've submitted samples to a couple of you, and you pretended to ignore me. Rather than use me as an asset on your own sites, you pretend my thoughts are yours. You're phonies. How do you sleep at night?
Anyway I'll now say I think it's Bridgewater, and a week from today the football world will be abuzz with the known fact that Ray Farmer is in love with Teddy Bridgewater. And the source will be my WILD GUESS.
There's no Andrew Luck in this draft. Duh. Luck is once in a generation. The last Luck was Peyton Manning.
But Bridgewater IS a lot like RG3. Because of that bidding war the Browns lost for him, and what Washington gave up for him, his worth has been inflated.
Bridgewater is approximately as good as RG3. The rest is hyperbole.
But if it's Blake Bortles, that's okay too. In fact I changed my mind and think it's him instead. Bortles is rough around the edges and needs some polishing, so the quarterback-hungry teams drafting ahead of the Browns are a tiny bit more likely to let him pass them by.
Manziel is also a bit of a work in progress, but his athleticism and uncanny instincts make up for it. Any offensive coordinator with the brains God gave a doorknob will alter his offense to make the most of what he does best until the other requisite skills can be refined.
When all is said and done, I believe that Bortles is the most likely one to be there at four.
Shanahan's (or Turner's) ideal guy will be big and tall with a big arm. He should have good mobility, and RG3/Bridgewater/Maziel scrambling ability is just a bonus.
As a pure passer, Bortles may well have more upside than anyone else in this quarterback class. Despite the recent success of shorter quarterbacks, bigger and taller is also safer, physically speaking. Better able to see the field from the pocket, and less likely to get hurt.
Bortles fits the Shanahan offense to a tee. Kyle and his dad had to alter the Redskin offense to help RG3 get started out right, but Bortles fits Kyle's ideal scheme already.
Again, he's been compared to Big Ben. Thats' pretty lame. He's much more athletic than Ben. Bortles runs about like a pass-catching tight end, and can hurt you on the ground. Ben runs only to survive. Bortles also reads things and gets rid of the ball quicker.
Things have fallen into place quite well to set this up, as Rodney Hoyerfield is here, and Bortles needn't be thrown to the wolves immediately.
With either Manziel or Bridgewater, a lot of fans would be twitching and wide-eyed on every play of every game, just waiting for that first Hoyer interception to begin their "John-nee" or "Ted-ee!" chant.
Mike Evans isn't my favorite reciever in this draft, but is the most realistic target in the second round or even lower.
3/11 edit: oops!
One analyst said that the Browns needed another guy with speed, which is, to put it politely, wrong. The guy opposite Josh Gordon should first and foremost be reliable. Speed would be nice, but dependability is critical.
Evans was Manziel's favorite reciever. He doesn't get separation, but it doesn't matter because he's 6'4", 225. He's considered a "West Coast chain-mover".
He'll run a lot of slants and crosses in the NFL. He won't run away from anybody, although he might run them over.
Some of the mock drafts I've seen ignore wide reciever in favor of running back. I really like Carlos Hyde, and wouldn't mind that at all, but here again these guys live in Oblivia. If Kyle can implement his zone-blocking scheme, the running back thing is greatly mitigated.
Wide reciever remains more important. For that matter, the guard position is now more important than running back.
Give it a week. The parasites who raid this blog will get it out there and pretty soon it will just sort of dawn on everybody else dammit.
Of course Farmer has a favorite quarterback in mind, and he probably settled on that opinion sometime in January. The combine and Pro Days are very helpful--and the staff is all here, all doing their jobs as if nothing had happened.
All the tapes are being studied, and all the information is available.
In other words, BIG FREAKING DEAL. Move along, nothing to see here.
I have no clue who Farmer's guy might be. I will speculate a little, and one or two of my ten readers who mine this blog for original thoughts which they steal from me...
And look, you guys: You're stealing. I've submitted samples to a couple of you, and you pretended to ignore me. Rather than use me as an asset on your own sites, you pretend my thoughts are yours. You're phonies. How do you sleep at night?
Anyway I'll now say I think it's Bridgewater, and a week from today the football world will be abuzz with the known fact that Ray Farmer is in love with Teddy Bridgewater. And the source will be my WILD GUESS.
There's no Andrew Luck in this draft. Duh. Luck is once in a generation. The last Luck was Peyton Manning.
But Bridgewater IS a lot like RG3. Because of that bidding war the Browns lost for him, and what Washington gave up for him, his worth has been inflated.
Bridgewater is approximately as good as RG3. The rest is hyperbole.
But if it's Blake Bortles, that's okay too. In fact I changed my mind and think it's him instead. Bortles is rough around the edges and needs some polishing, so the quarterback-hungry teams drafting ahead of the Browns are a tiny bit more likely to let him pass them by.
Manziel is also a bit of a work in progress, but his athleticism and uncanny instincts make up for it. Any offensive coordinator with the brains God gave a doorknob will alter his offense to make the most of what he does best until the other requisite skills can be refined.
When all is said and done, I believe that Bortles is the most likely one to be there at four.
Shanahan's (or Turner's) ideal guy will be big and tall with a big arm. He should have good mobility, and RG3/Bridgewater/Maziel scrambling ability is just a bonus.
As a pure passer, Bortles may well have more upside than anyone else in this quarterback class. Despite the recent success of shorter quarterbacks, bigger and taller is also safer, physically speaking. Better able to see the field from the pocket, and less likely to get hurt.
Bortles fits the Shanahan offense to a tee. Kyle and his dad had to alter the Redskin offense to help RG3 get started out right, but Bortles fits Kyle's ideal scheme already.
Again, he's been compared to Big Ben. Thats' pretty lame. He's much more athletic than Ben. Bortles runs about like a pass-catching tight end, and can hurt you on the ground. Ben runs only to survive. Bortles also reads things and gets rid of the ball quicker.
Things have fallen into place quite well to set this up, as Rodney Hoyerfield is here, and Bortles needn't be thrown to the wolves immediately.
With either Manziel or Bridgewater, a lot of fans would be twitching and wide-eyed on every play of every game, just waiting for that first Hoyer interception to begin their "John-nee" or "Ted-ee!" chant.
Mike Evans isn't my favorite reciever in this draft, but is the most realistic target in the second round or even lower.
3/11 edit: oops!
One analyst said that the Browns needed another guy with speed, which is, to put it politely, wrong. The guy opposite Josh Gordon should first and foremost be reliable. Speed would be nice, but dependability is critical.
Evans was Manziel's favorite reciever. He doesn't get separation, but it doesn't matter because he's 6'4", 225. He's considered a "West Coast chain-mover".
He'll run a lot of slants and crosses in the NFL. He won't run away from anybody, although he might run them over.
Some of the mock drafts I've seen ignore wide reciever in favor of running back. I really like Carlos Hyde, and wouldn't mind that at all, but here again these guys live in Oblivia. If Kyle can implement his zone-blocking scheme, the running back thing is greatly mitigated.
Wide reciever remains more important. For that matter, the guard position is now more important than running back.
Give it a week. The parasites who raid this blog will get it out there and pretty soon it will just sort of dawn on everybody else dammit.
Browns Reality Soap and Black Helicopters continued
Pat Kirwan's assertion that Jimmy Haslam had been consulting around the league was recently confirmed when Bill Parcells spoke up. No, he wasn't offered the GM gig, but yes, Haslam had asked him for advice.
Excellent guy to ask! Parcells has quit or been fired twice for refusing to share authority with a GM. (Context: Bill had won a Superbowl and really knew how to build his own teams his own way. This is not Mike Holmgren. And Pettine is a first time coach, so the structure here makes sense).
I'll give you one guess what his advice was.
"Even now? After we just hired a coach? A couple weeks before the combine?"
"Yes."
Kirwan himself is careful not to step on any toes, but a listener can tell that he's not down on the Banner/Lombardi firings. He just keeps repeating: "First time GM, first time head coach, AFC North--it's gonna be tough."
Ex-Browns player and front office Exec John Wooten knows Ray Farmer. He was involved in checking him out for the draft as a player, and stayed in touch. He's very high on him as a GM. "You'll see."
Wooten answers Ross Tucker's concern about Ross Tucker's Farmer-Pettine "arranged marriage" concerns:
"I'm a guard and they bring in a new center. I don't know this guy, but we both know we have to work together. I don't know Pettine, but I do know Ray Farmer, and from his side there won't be a problem. If niether guy has a (personal) agenda; if they want power more than they want to win, they shouldn't be here."
I think Ross also watches too many faux reality shows. All of us have worked or do work with other people. We automaticly try to get along with them, because conflict is stressful. Who wants to be distracted and tense all day (besides the hams on those shows who are trying hard to be dramatic and entertaining?)
Why wouldn't two reasonable and intelligent people get along?
I have another personal thought to toss in here about the Banner firing: HE was probably not going to offer Alex Mack top five center money. And I'll bet you Parcells had an opinion about that when he spoke to Haslam. Alex Mack IS a top five center!
Ex Bills and Colts GM Bill Polian is less diplomatic than Pat Kirwan, and likes what Haslam did. The timing could have been better, but Haslam is still learning the ropes. Bill comes out and says that Joe Banner was the reason why coaches didn't want to come here.
Polian was expressing concern over Farmer's inexperience and suggesting that he might hire his old boss from Kansas City when his co-host informed him that he had.
Polian called that a smart move, and said that this guy will handle all the nuts and bolts of setting up the draft board and organizing things so that Ray can concentrate on talent.
In re Haslam, Bill points out that Robert Kraft fired Bill Parcells and Pete Carroll before he got it right.
Respect for Ray Farmer is enthusiastic and unanimous among all these guys.
Superbowl MVP Rich Gannon keeps repeating that the Browns have too many cooks in the kitchen and need to get straightened out.
That's irrational. Haslam just fired two cooks and promoted one from within. He restructured and simplified the front office. Rich is talking about moves made to FIX a problem as more of the same.
Adam Schein, of all people, wrote an exceptionally good opinion piece on the Browns situation. This is shocking to me, because Adam usually makes a lot of generalizations and assumptions...I swear this article must have been ghost-written for him, or else he found a great brain nutrient or something.
From Mary Kay Cabot of the PD, I'm hearing that there was conflict between Lombardi and Banner as well. I don't know if this is true, but it seems to fit a pattern: Banner seems to be a control freak.
But Peter Smith (Dawg Pound Daily) wants us to be fair to Joe Banner. He made some really good moves, and Peter insists that one of these was Paul Kruger.
Everybody was fixated on the sack stats, but Peter points out that he had as many quarterback hurries as ever, and became one of the best run-stoppers in the NFL.
So Joe Banner is, I suspect, a control-freak and micromanager. I believe he had Mike Lombardi locked in a dungeon and stifled him. (Look, I know everybody hates Lombardi, but this isn't reasonable). He monkeyed around with the roster to force his Head Coach to play guys he didn't want to play.
Banner had a great reputation around the league when he came here, but there were a lot of reports about his interference with Any Reid as well.
What John Wooten said is germaine here: it can't be about ego, a personal agenda, or a lust for power. As much as the players are a team, the front office is a team. Joe Banner is a very capable, smart man--but (I suspect) not a team player.
And with Joe Banner, I was throwing in the towel on Alex Mack--and pretty irked by it. I'm pretty sure that Ray Farmer will be more flexible. Mack's agent will say that he is a Pro Bowler in his prime, ergo deserves top four center money. Banner would offer less. Farmer might pay him his market price.
Kirwan calls this the most important move the Browns can make.
NFL Radio consensus is also that TJ Ward should get the franchise tag.
So there you have it. Kirwan, Polian, and Wooten think Haslam just took off the training wheels and made a smart (if overdue) move. Our little Jimmy is growing up!
Call THEM homers.
Excellent guy to ask! Parcells has quit or been fired twice for refusing to share authority with a GM. (Context: Bill had won a Superbowl and really knew how to build his own teams his own way. This is not Mike Holmgren. And Pettine is a first time coach, so the structure here makes sense).
I'll give you one guess what his advice was.
"Even now? After we just hired a coach? A couple weeks before the combine?"
"Yes."
Kirwan himself is careful not to step on any toes, but a listener can tell that he's not down on the Banner/Lombardi firings. He just keeps repeating: "First time GM, first time head coach, AFC North--it's gonna be tough."
Ex-Browns player and front office Exec John Wooten knows Ray Farmer. He was involved in checking him out for the draft as a player, and stayed in touch. He's very high on him as a GM. "You'll see."
Wooten answers Ross Tucker's concern about Ross Tucker's Farmer-Pettine "arranged marriage" concerns:
"I'm a guard and they bring in a new center. I don't know this guy, but we both know we have to work together. I don't know Pettine, but I do know Ray Farmer, and from his side there won't be a problem. If niether guy has a (personal) agenda; if they want power more than they want to win, they shouldn't be here."
I think Ross also watches too many faux reality shows. All of us have worked or do work with other people. We automaticly try to get along with them, because conflict is stressful. Who wants to be distracted and tense all day (besides the hams on those shows who are trying hard to be dramatic and entertaining?)
Why wouldn't two reasonable and intelligent people get along?
I have another personal thought to toss in here about the Banner firing: HE was probably not going to offer Alex Mack top five center money. And I'll bet you Parcells had an opinion about that when he spoke to Haslam. Alex Mack IS a top five center!
Ex Bills and Colts GM Bill Polian is less diplomatic than Pat Kirwan, and likes what Haslam did. The timing could have been better, but Haslam is still learning the ropes. Bill comes out and says that Joe Banner was the reason why coaches didn't want to come here.
Polian was expressing concern over Farmer's inexperience and suggesting that he might hire his old boss from Kansas City when his co-host informed him that he had.
Polian called that a smart move, and said that this guy will handle all the nuts and bolts of setting up the draft board and organizing things so that Ray can concentrate on talent.
In re Haslam, Bill points out that Robert Kraft fired Bill Parcells and Pete Carroll before he got it right.
Respect for Ray Farmer is enthusiastic and unanimous among all these guys.
Superbowl MVP Rich Gannon keeps repeating that the Browns have too many cooks in the kitchen and need to get straightened out.
That's irrational. Haslam just fired two cooks and promoted one from within. He restructured and simplified the front office. Rich is talking about moves made to FIX a problem as more of the same.
Adam Schein, of all people, wrote an exceptionally good opinion piece on the Browns situation. This is shocking to me, because Adam usually makes a lot of generalizations and assumptions...I swear this article must have been ghost-written for him, or else he found a great brain nutrient or something.
From Mary Kay Cabot of the PD, I'm hearing that there was conflict between Lombardi and Banner as well. I don't know if this is true, but it seems to fit a pattern: Banner seems to be a control freak.
But Peter Smith (Dawg Pound Daily) wants us to be fair to Joe Banner. He made some really good moves, and Peter insists that one of these was Paul Kruger.
Everybody was fixated on the sack stats, but Peter points out that he had as many quarterback hurries as ever, and became one of the best run-stoppers in the NFL.
So Joe Banner is, I suspect, a control-freak and micromanager. I believe he had Mike Lombardi locked in a dungeon and stifled him. (Look, I know everybody hates Lombardi, but this isn't reasonable). He monkeyed around with the roster to force his Head Coach to play guys he didn't want to play.
Banner had a great reputation around the league when he came here, but there were a lot of reports about his interference with Any Reid as well.
What John Wooten said is germaine here: it can't be about ego, a personal agenda, or a lust for power. As much as the players are a team, the front office is a team. Joe Banner is a very capable, smart man--but (I suspect) not a team player.
And with Joe Banner, I was throwing in the towel on Alex Mack--and pretty irked by it. I'm pretty sure that Ray Farmer will be more flexible. Mack's agent will say that he is a Pro Bowler in his prime, ergo deserves top four center money. Banner would offer less. Farmer might pay him his market price.
Kirwan calls this the most important move the Browns can make.
NFL Radio consensus is also that TJ Ward should get the franchise tag.
So there you have it. Kirwan, Polian, and Wooten think Haslam just took off the training wheels and made a smart (if overdue) move. Our little Jimmy is growing up!
Call THEM homers.
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Banner/Lombardi Firing Analysis Analysis: the Reality Show Soap Opera
I'll start with what I'm hearing right now on Openlygaylinebacker Radio:
Ex-player Booger McFarland is ranting about "since 1999" so I'm ignoring him. Jimmy Haslam got here one season ago, and what happened before he got here is meaningless. Unless Booger is talking about ghosts or gypsy curses, he's irrational.
Ross Tucker, who is very very smart, rational, and logical is also generally down on the organization. His rational issues include the fact that Ray Farmer wasn't in on the Pettine interview. He calls this Pettine-Farmer relationship an "arranged marriage".
Ross believes this: Haslam was disappointed last season that Banner was unable to land Chip Kelly. At this time, he was sitting back and letting the football people do their thing without interference.
On firing Chud, Ross believes, it was Banner and Lombardi who pushed for this move. I personally think this was as likely Haslam himself, but this is Ross:
With the first coaching search in his mind, the second coaching search went as it did. The most experienced candidates dropped out. (My insertion: Many coaches didn't want to work with Banner, who interferes with coaches and won't allow them enough autonomy).
During this process, Haslam was building up to a boil, and now he's popped his cork.
Ross thinks it was Haslam who pulled the trigger on Pettine.
And that Haslam fired Banner and his guy Lombardi because he was disgusted.
Worth mentioning: Ross thinks that the idea that Banner was forced on Haslam by the league is BS. He feels that Haslam really believed in Banner at first.
Now, I'll skip to some other guys: Ex-GM Pat Kirwan adds that there are professional mercenary-like NFL consultants that any owner can hire. They tell these guys "ok check out my organization and tell me what you think".
Kirwan says these people worked in the league and really know their stuff. Banner the businessman is smart enough to filter what info he gets.
Kirwan thinks that Haslam hired some of these guys, and consulted other people he knew. In fact, Pat says he knows for a fact that Banner was soliciting professional opinions for awhile, and that Pat's unnamed sources were telling Haslam he was on the wrong track.
Haslam noted and filed the advice, but stuck with Banner and company. Until NOW. He is now making the moves that were suggested.
TO BE CONTINUED
Ex-player Booger McFarland is ranting about "since 1999" so I'm ignoring him. Jimmy Haslam got here one season ago, and what happened before he got here is meaningless. Unless Booger is talking about ghosts or gypsy curses, he's irrational.
Ross Tucker, who is very very smart, rational, and logical is also generally down on the organization. His rational issues include the fact that Ray Farmer wasn't in on the Pettine interview. He calls this Pettine-Farmer relationship an "arranged marriage".
Ross believes this: Haslam was disappointed last season that Banner was unable to land Chip Kelly. At this time, he was sitting back and letting the football people do their thing without interference.
On firing Chud, Ross believes, it was Banner and Lombardi who pushed for this move. I personally think this was as likely Haslam himself, but this is Ross:
With the first coaching search in his mind, the second coaching search went as it did. The most experienced candidates dropped out. (My insertion: Many coaches didn't want to work with Banner, who interferes with coaches and won't allow them enough autonomy).
During this process, Haslam was building up to a boil, and now he's popped his cork.
Ross thinks it was Haslam who pulled the trigger on Pettine.
And that Haslam fired Banner and his guy Lombardi because he was disgusted.
Worth mentioning: Ross thinks that the idea that Banner was forced on Haslam by the league is BS. He feels that Haslam really believed in Banner at first.
Now, I'll skip to some other guys: Ex-GM Pat Kirwan adds that there are professional mercenary-like NFL consultants that any owner can hire. They tell these guys "ok check out my organization and tell me what you think".
Kirwan says these people worked in the league and really know their stuff. Banner the businessman is smart enough to filter what info he gets.
Kirwan thinks that Haslam hired some of these guys, and consulted other people he knew. In fact, Pat says he knows for a fact that Banner was soliciting professional opinions for awhile, and that Pat's unnamed sources were telling Haslam he was on the wrong track.
Haslam noted and filed the advice, but stuck with Banner and company. Until NOW. He is now making the moves that were suggested.
TO BE CONTINUED
Sunday, February 9, 2014
There is Intelligent Life Among Pundits
CBS Sports in general is pretty good on the lowly Browns, but Ryan Wilson wrote a truly objective and well-researched article on the Browns.
What went right, what went wrong, why, and what they need.
I forgive him for considering Gramps Boldin as a wide reciever. It's obviously a common malady among all sports guys except me to want to sign geezers. "But he'd be cheap! Just for one year!"
Every time the Browns sign an old guy, they're just in time to watch him fall right into his wheelchair. That's especially true when they get him from Bill Belichick.
Ryan is one smart cookie, with actual opinions. One was that the Browns might be better served finding a running back on day two of the draft than overpaying a guy like Ben Tate. AMEN, BROTHER!
See last post.
I admit I don't check out http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ enough, but Ryan Wilson does, and caught me in sheep-mode. Like everybody else, I was babbling about Mitchell Schwartz being a bad right tackle. WRONG. Schwartze finished with a positive grade.
That's positive overall, meaning that he was so good later in the season that he more than made up for the bad performances he had earlier; that by the end of only his second season he became a pretty damn good right tackle.
I'm really embarrassed that for so long I've sounded as dumb as most fans.
This changes things a lot. While the new rookie salary cap does open the door to the Browns drafting a left tackle and putting him at right tackle, right tackle is not, in reality, a position of need as all us Memorex Morons thought he was. (Memorex Moron: You see a guy play badly, make up your mind that he sucks, and nothing he does later changes your opinion. And yes, I was one. For the first time. Apologies to Mister Schwartze.)
Zone blocking teams can go with a conventional right tackle, by the way.
I'm glad. Now they can focus on finding athletic guards. I sure hope they can retain Mack, but it might come down to Mack not being after every last dime like most players are. Somewhere among 32 teams there's a Phil Savage who will overpay him.
Garrett Gilkey could be one of the guards they're looking for. He played baseball and basketball too, showed some agility at the combine, and at Chadron State played left tackle.
He's 6'6", which is tall for a guard. He wasn't considered a good tackle prospect because his arms are short. While still a factor, this isn't as much a problem at guard, because interior defensive linemen are usually not as tall as DE's, and there's less space to cover.
I'm kind of rooting for him because he looks like a Viking, was bullied as a kid, and is highly intelligent. He insists he doesn't use the bullying as motivation to kick ass, but I know better. I'll tell you about it someday.
Anyway, his speed is about average for a guard, but he changes directions well, and if he can stay low and not lunge he could fit Shanahan's scheme.
Ryan did make a minor mistake, though. Right before he mentioned Jordon Cameron, he said that Josh Gordon was the only playmaker. The offense Pettine and Shanahan inherit features two elite recievers--not one.
Yes, they need somebody better than Greg Little. But as for the slot guy, I think that between Cooper and Benjamin that might be covered.
The Turner offense didn't have much room for a Josh Cooper type, but Shanahan will like him a lot.
What went right, what went wrong, why, and what they need.
I forgive him for considering Gramps Boldin as a wide reciever. It's obviously a common malady among all sports guys except me to want to sign geezers. "But he'd be cheap! Just for one year!"
Every time the Browns sign an old guy, they're just in time to watch him fall right into his wheelchair. That's especially true when they get him from Bill Belichick.
Ryan is one smart cookie, with actual opinions. One was that the Browns might be better served finding a running back on day two of the draft than overpaying a guy like Ben Tate. AMEN, BROTHER!
See last post.
I admit I don't check out http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ enough, but Ryan Wilson does, and caught me in sheep-mode. Like everybody else, I was babbling about Mitchell Schwartz being a bad right tackle. WRONG. Schwartze finished with a positive grade.
That's positive overall, meaning that he was so good later in the season that he more than made up for the bad performances he had earlier; that by the end of only his second season he became a pretty damn good right tackle.
I'm really embarrassed that for so long I've sounded as dumb as most fans.
This changes things a lot. While the new rookie salary cap does open the door to the Browns drafting a left tackle and putting him at right tackle, right tackle is not, in reality, a position of need as all us Memorex Morons thought he was. (Memorex Moron: You see a guy play badly, make up your mind that he sucks, and nothing he does later changes your opinion. And yes, I was one. For the first time. Apologies to Mister Schwartze.)
Zone blocking teams can go with a conventional right tackle, by the way.
I'm glad. Now they can focus on finding athletic guards. I sure hope they can retain Mack, but it might come down to Mack not being after every last dime like most players are. Somewhere among 32 teams there's a Phil Savage who will overpay him.
Garrett Gilkey could be one of the guards they're looking for. He played baseball and basketball too, showed some agility at the combine, and at Chadron State played left tackle.
He's 6'6", which is tall for a guard. He wasn't considered a good tackle prospect because his arms are short. While still a factor, this isn't as much a problem at guard, because interior defensive linemen are usually not as tall as DE's, and there's less space to cover.
I'm kind of rooting for him because he looks like a Viking, was bullied as a kid, and is highly intelligent. He insists he doesn't use the bullying as motivation to kick ass, but I know better. I'll tell you about it someday.
Anyway, his speed is about average for a guard, but he changes directions well, and if he can stay low and not lunge he could fit Shanahan's scheme.
Ryan did make a minor mistake, though. Right before he mentioned Jordon Cameron, he said that Josh Gordon was the only playmaker. The offense Pettine and Shanahan inherit features two elite recievers--not one.
Yes, they need somebody better than Greg Little. But as for the slot guy, I think that between Cooper and Benjamin that might be covered.
The Turner offense didn't have much room for a Josh Cooper type, but Shanahan will like him a lot.
Saturday, February 8, 2014
Letter To Oblivia
Ben Sullivan suggested five free agents for the Browns that he felt were underrated. They're all old and declining.
What bothers me more is the almost universal ignorance of Kyle Shanahan's offensive system, and how it will influence personnel "needs".
Here we go with "the Browns need a running back bad" mantra that even Pluto is starting to recite.
The Shanahans have for years and years taken low or even undrafted no-name running backs and made stars of them. Usually when they left to play in a different offensive system, they fell off the map again.
Is any of this sinking in yet?
It's the zone-blocking scheme. The back rarely runs right up the middle, but instead angles toward one tackle or the other, waiting for a cutback lane. He cuts back almost every time--the only question is when he'll do it.
The offensive linemen don't man-block, but head sideways as well, trying to earhole and cut defenders. This oversimplifies it; I mean there's a "seal-off" guy and a center or guard might chip and go linebacker-hunting vertically, but the gist is that it's a finesse thing and not a power thing.
All defenders can and do try to penetrate too fast to get nailed, but this very act is often what opens up the cutback lane. They arrive in the backfield too late to get the back, and the back is now running right through the space they just vacated.
Zone blockers also ignore anybody who doesn't matter, so you often see big defenders running around behind them--guys who can't catch the running back from behind.
Instead, the blockers hit linebackers and safeties who CAN get him.
This is hard to defend. It creates chaos in a defense, which can't predict it. Even if they know exactly what the offense will run, it's like a battle-plan: It's out the window soon after the first shot is fired. Defenders can't "read" their blocks, either.
A quick back who can accellerate quickly out of a cut excels in this system, even if he's not all that great. A power back can do it too, because defenders can't square up on them in time. Ironicly, Trent Richardson would be awesome in this scheme.
So no, the Browns biggest needs do NOT include running back anymore, because Kyle Shanahan has changed that already DO YOU UNDERSTAND YET?
While I'm at it, a few more things about Kyle's offense: He doesn't care about "blocking" tight ends. That's only SORTA true. His tight ends need not be in-line blockers, but do blast linebackers and safeties in space. They also decoy bigger defenders away from runs.
Kyle likes a blocking fullback in this mix; you see it's all about open space and chaos, whereas Turner's offense was more about pushing people around and controlling the line of scrimmage.
This writer also thought the Browns should grab a 32-year-old guard.
In my previous posts, I referred to the lack of zone-blockers on the current roster. It's still true. Shanahan's presence could make a difference in the retention of Alex Mack. He won't want to scrap everybody except Thomas right away.
Schwartze as a guard could be adequate in a zone, because he has some extra reach and only slightly below average speed. Certainly Kyle and the line coach could work with him. One athletic guard could make it work--sorta--right away without a big overhaul.
And that guy might already be on the roster.
Other than the blocking scheme, the Shanahan offense is a lot like Turner's. I believe there are more intermediate crossing routes ala the West Coast, but it's still run-oriented with deep passes. It's been called the "East Coast" system.
Anyway get with the program. The Browns may not have ideal zone linemen, but the free agents or draftees they seek will not be old and slow.
They will seek better running backs, but it may not even be an area of need at all. Rodney Obgannayafield might fit in quite well! Commitees work fine in this offense.
THINK.
What bothers me more is the almost universal ignorance of Kyle Shanahan's offensive system, and how it will influence personnel "needs".
Here we go with "the Browns need a running back bad" mantra that even Pluto is starting to recite.
The Shanahans have for years and years taken low or even undrafted no-name running backs and made stars of them. Usually when they left to play in a different offensive system, they fell off the map again.
Is any of this sinking in yet?
It's the zone-blocking scheme. The back rarely runs right up the middle, but instead angles toward one tackle or the other, waiting for a cutback lane. He cuts back almost every time--the only question is when he'll do it.
The offensive linemen don't man-block, but head sideways as well, trying to earhole and cut defenders. This oversimplifies it; I mean there's a "seal-off" guy and a center or guard might chip and go linebacker-hunting vertically, but the gist is that it's a finesse thing and not a power thing.
All defenders can and do try to penetrate too fast to get nailed, but this very act is often what opens up the cutback lane. They arrive in the backfield too late to get the back, and the back is now running right through the space they just vacated.
Zone blockers also ignore anybody who doesn't matter, so you often see big defenders running around behind them--guys who can't catch the running back from behind.
Instead, the blockers hit linebackers and safeties who CAN get him.
This is hard to defend. It creates chaos in a defense, which can't predict it. Even if they know exactly what the offense will run, it's like a battle-plan: It's out the window soon after the first shot is fired. Defenders can't "read" their blocks, either.
A quick back who can accellerate quickly out of a cut excels in this system, even if he's not all that great. A power back can do it too, because defenders can't square up on them in time. Ironicly, Trent Richardson would be awesome in this scheme.
So no, the Browns biggest needs do NOT include running back anymore, because Kyle Shanahan has changed that already DO YOU UNDERSTAND YET?
While I'm at it, a few more things about Kyle's offense: He doesn't care about "blocking" tight ends. That's only SORTA true. His tight ends need not be in-line blockers, but do blast linebackers and safeties in space. They also decoy bigger defenders away from runs.
Kyle likes a blocking fullback in this mix; you see it's all about open space and chaos, whereas Turner's offense was more about pushing people around and controlling the line of scrimmage.
This writer also thought the Browns should grab a 32-year-old guard.
In my previous posts, I referred to the lack of zone-blockers on the current roster. It's still true. Shanahan's presence could make a difference in the retention of Alex Mack. He won't want to scrap everybody except Thomas right away.
Schwartze as a guard could be adequate in a zone, because he has some extra reach and only slightly below average speed. Certainly Kyle and the line coach could work with him. One athletic guard could make it work--sorta--right away without a big overhaul.
And that guy might already be on the roster.
Other than the blocking scheme, the Shanahan offense is a lot like Turner's. I believe there are more intermediate crossing routes ala the West Coast, but it's still run-oriented with deep passes. It's been called the "East Coast" system.
Anyway get with the program. The Browns may not have ideal zone linemen, but the free agents or draftees they seek will not be old and slow.
They will seek better running backs, but it may not even be an area of need at all. Rodney Obgannayafield might fit in quite well! Commitees work fine in this offense.
THINK.
Thursday, February 6, 2014
Browns Free Agency and the Draft
Most of the mock drafts I've seen have the Browns drafting Johnny Manziel fourth. The consensus is that both Bortles and Bridgewater will be gone by then.
This is because Manziel is scary. Bridgewater and even Bortles are considered safer picks. This, in turn, is why anybody, including the Browns, trading up for Manziel isn't very likely.
It wouldn't suprise me at all, though, if the Browns drafted Manziel right there at four...or...
What if somebody else did want Manziel bad enough to trade up to the less-expensive fourth pick?
No wait...no listen---are you done? I'll wait...
Ok now hear me out: I've been wondering why everybody hates Derrick Carr so much. I'm still not so sure.
The decision-makers have all these metrics, thoroughly understand intangibles, and know a ton more than I do, so I defer to them because I only pretend to be an egomaniac to be cute.
But this time...this time I honestly think that it's because his former first overall pick brother (David) went the way of Ryan Leaf. Yes, I'm saying prejudice could have a lot to do with why Derrick Carr is being ignored.
But in reality, who is ignoring him? The pundits. Not the personnel people. And the personnel people aren't about to tip their hands--unless it's deliberate and false, like the Browns being all ga-ga over Manziel.
What if the front office secretly likes Derrick Carr, or even some other lesser-known QB in this draft?
Hype is usually less than accurate, but there aren't usually many huge surprises on draft day, so drafting Carr fourth overall would not be good. Trading down and then drafting him makes a lot more sense.
Sorry if you are a huge Manziel fan and think you know that he will indeed be a better pro than Carr. But unless you have all the tapes, and actually comprehend what you're looking at, you're just being emotional, and following the loudest voice.
Will Burge of the Bleacher Report wrote a really good piece on potential Browns free agent targets.
I'm a little leery of the 34-year old Santana Moss. Yes, he was still productive last season despite playing part-time, but now he'll be another year older. He won't be as good as he was last season, and the only question is how much more he'll decline.
I liked the idea of Zane Beadles, the Bronco guard, at first. He's a good player, young, and wouldn't cost very much. His best assets are his intelligence and technique. He is also a potential center, should the Browns lose Alex Mack.
He's a converted tackle. He's not all that athletic, though. I wonder if he'd fit a zone-blocking scheme. Possibly. But I don't believe he could be effective at pulling. He's fits a man scheme much better than a zone.
Donald Brown would be awesome, and I hope Will is right in predicting that he won't break the bank. I do like Rodney Bakersfield, though.
ILB Leslie Woodyard would be excellent too. Roberts' coverage assignments were almost impossible vs. some teams last season, and he really doesn't suck. But Woodyard is just plain better.
Hakeem Nicks is very interesting, as he's still young, but has fallen off the map over the last two seasons. Will points out that he had his best seasons when he had a true number one (like Gordon) on the other side. Due to his lack of recent production, he could come at a nice discount. Definitely worth checking out!
I like Golden Tate too, although he'll be more expensive.
Nice article.
Peter Smith wrote another good article on Ray Farmer and why he opted to remain with the Browns rather than take a big promotion with the Dolphins.
The guy strongly defends Mike Lombardi. Is anybody else listening? Guess you know better than Ray, too.
Peter kind of bugs me in reference to Brian Hoyer. Peter has decided that Brian may be a good "bridge" starter to keep the QB chair warm until a real franchise guy arrives.
He may be right about that, but I'm always irked when a guy isn't really given a chance; when even what he has done is dismissed.
I was very excited by what I saw during Hoyer's brief stint at QB, including and especially his "it's on me I'm passing" comeback in his first game as a starter. This was the game in which he threw all three of his picks, one of which wasn't on him. He was perfect thereafter.
Pete, you could say you haven't seen enough yet. You could say that defenses will find his weaknesses and go after them. That we don't know how he'll handle that yet. You could say he might already be as good as he'll ever be, and find some way to make that not good enough.
But I really wish you wouldn't be so eager to dismiss him as no more than a solid journeyman until you've seen him start to sputter a little!
Brian Hoyer might be a bridge-starter. Or he might be a FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK. So far I only know what I saw.
Place your bets.
This is because Manziel is scary. Bridgewater and even Bortles are considered safer picks. This, in turn, is why anybody, including the Browns, trading up for Manziel isn't very likely.
It wouldn't suprise me at all, though, if the Browns drafted Manziel right there at four...or...
What if somebody else did want Manziel bad enough to trade up to the less-expensive fourth pick?
No wait...no listen---are you done? I'll wait...
Ok now hear me out: I've been wondering why everybody hates Derrick Carr so much. I'm still not so sure.
The decision-makers have all these metrics, thoroughly understand intangibles, and know a ton more than I do, so I defer to them because I only pretend to be an egomaniac to be cute.
But this time...this time I honestly think that it's because his former first overall pick brother (David) went the way of Ryan Leaf. Yes, I'm saying prejudice could have a lot to do with why Derrick Carr is being ignored.
But in reality, who is ignoring him? The pundits. Not the personnel people. And the personnel people aren't about to tip their hands--unless it's deliberate and false, like the Browns being all ga-ga over Manziel.
What if the front office secretly likes Derrick Carr, or even some other lesser-known QB in this draft?
Hype is usually less than accurate, but there aren't usually many huge surprises on draft day, so drafting Carr fourth overall would not be good. Trading down and then drafting him makes a lot more sense.
Sorry if you are a huge Manziel fan and think you know that he will indeed be a better pro than Carr. But unless you have all the tapes, and actually comprehend what you're looking at, you're just being emotional, and following the loudest voice.
Will Burge of the Bleacher Report wrote a really good piece on potential Browns free agent targets.
I'm a little leery of the 34-year old Santana Moss. Yes, he was still productive last season despite playing part-time, but now he'll be another year older. He won't be as good as he was last season, and the only question is how much more he'll decline.
I liked the idea of Zane Beadles, the Bronco guard, at first. He's a good player, young, and wouldn't cost very much. His best assets are his intelligence and technique. He is also a potential center, should the Browns lose Alex Mack.
He's a converted tackle. He's not all that athletic, though. I wonder if he'd fit a zone-blocking scheme. Possibly. But I don't believe he could be effective at pulling. He's fits a man scheme much better than a zone.
Donald Brown would be awesome, and I hope Will is right in predicting that he won't break the bank. I do like Rodney Bakersfield, though.
ILB Leslie Woodyard would be excellent too. Roberts' coverage assignments were almost impossible vs. some teams last season, and he really doesn't suck. But Woodyard is just plain better.
Hakeem Nicks is very interesting, as he's still young, but has fallen off the map over the last two seasons. Will points out that he had his best seasons when he had a true number one (like Gordon) on the other side. Due to his lack of recent production, he could come at a nice discount. Definitely worth checking out!
I like Golden Tate too, although he'll be more expensive.
Nice article.
Peter Smith wrote another good article on Ray Farmer and why he opted to remain with the Browns rather than take a big promotion with the Dolphins.
The guy strongly defends Mike Lombardi. Is anybody else listening? Guess you know better than Ray, too.
Peter kind of bugs me in reference to Brian Hoyer. Peter has decided that Brian may be a good "bridge" starter to keep the QB chair warm until a real franchise guy arrives.
He may be right about that, but I'm always irked when a guy isn't really given a chance; when even what he has done is dismissed.
I was very excited by what I saw during Hoyer's brief stint at QB, including and especially his "it's on me I'm passing" comeback in his first game as a starter. This was the game in which he threw all three of his picks, one of which wasn't on him. He was perfect thereafter.
Pete, you could say you haven't seen enough yet. You could say that defenses will find his weaknesses and go after them. That we don't know how he'll handle that yet. You could say he might already be as good as he'll ever be, and find some way to make that not good enough.
But I really wish you wouldn't be so eager to dismiss him as no more than a solid journeyman until you've seen him start to sputter a little!
Brian Hoyer might be a bridge-starter. Or he might be a FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK. So far I only know what I saw.
Place your bets.
Monday, February 3, 2014
La Canfora, Manziel, Kyle Shanahan and Mock Drafts
Disinformation 101:
The object of disinformation is to mislead and enemy or opponent. You want them to think your objective is here, instead of where it really is. Believing your plausibly but intentionally leaked BS, they will redeploy assets to the wrong place--drawing them away from the real objective.
Political disinformation is similar. This is used to distract and manipulate. You get the idea.
Intelligence Analysis 101: Step one is the evaluation of sources. You do this by checking out how often they have been right. You rank them by this measure.
Peter La Canfora is usually wrong about the Browns. He also falls for everything in his rush to get it into print first.
So, I just read a Will Burge mock draft in the Bleacher Report which, I have no doubt whatsoever, relied almost exclusively on La Canfora and wishful thinking.
He has the Browns trading up to the second spot for Johnny Manziel. trading their lower first round pick, the 71st overall pick, and maybe a future second rounder to move up two slots.
Will finds this believable, as the Browns failed to get RGIII.
Excuse me. Manziel isn't RGIII. RGIII came with intelligence, more size, a stronger arm and deep accuracy. Zero questions about his dedication or character.
The Browns will, of course, do all that homework. For all I know, they will indeed determine that Manziel is their favorite QB. He might BE the best pro prospect in this draft, for all I know.
But I still can't seem to find out what's wrong with Derrick Carr. What--he's not as exciting? He's got the wrong brother? What is it?
And Bortles. Bortles rose to the occasion every time he stepped up in class, upsetting teams that were supposed to dominate him. Coming back to save the day over and over. Bortles is a guy who proved that when you can't run the ball anymore and the defense is focusing on getting to him and stopping the pass, he could carry his team.
For whatever reason, Derrick Carr isn't at this point even in the top ten discussion. I've got to assume that I'm missing something important about him. Ok, so be it.
But do the Browns really like Manziel more than the bigger, stronger, comeback, rise-to-the-occasion Bortles, or for that matter Teddy Bridgewater?
If I were the Browns and wanted Bortles or Bridgewater, I would let the blabbermouth I'd identified as La Canfora's source overhear me ranting about Johnny Football, and hope that the other GM's are dumb enough to buy it.
Let them trade up ahead of me or whatever.
Thanks in part to Lane Adkins, I know a little more about new OC Kyle Shanahan.
I wasn't all that impressed with Kyle's dad, who won with Elway and then treaded water. But Kyle has done a lot of good things on his own. While we're looking at coach's kids, why the hell not Brian Schottenheimer, the Derrick Carr of coaches?
But it's ok. Kyle is pretty good, and a strong believer in balance.
Lane says he uses a real fullback. The fullback blocks a lot, while the tight ends are mostly recievers. Lane speculated about Greg Little doing some of this tight end stuff, which is intriguing, as he could make an ass of most linebackers.
But I've got to go further than Lane did on the offensive line. The Shanahans use zone-blocking, which relies on athletic and often neccessarily smaller offensive linemen.
Lane isn't optimistic about Alex Mack sticking around, and I hope he's wrong, because he does more or less fit. Joe Thomas, absolutely--Joe fits the zone scheme much better than the man scheme.
NONE of the other players on this team fit. Pinkston might be the closest, but it's still a stretch.
Well, he can't come in here and replace the whole offensive line all at once, as some would assume. Nor is Kyle a blockhead who is incapable of using man blocking when he has to. Zone teams often man block and vice-versa situationally anyway--it's never absolute.
It's good that the Browns have that cap space and all those draft picks (that I really doubt they'll squander on an overhyped undersized QB), as it actually is possible that they could do an overhaul, come to think of it.
Retaining Mack would make this much easier. One free agent. Two day one or two draft picks? Yes, maybe.
Some of you know, I really like the zone scheme. It makes ordinary backs look like stars, as it creates HUGE holes that require only good instincts and one cut to exploit.
Certainly there are drawbacks, as some defenses are capable of overpowering or penetrating--nothing is perfect, and zone wins more than it loses.
Zone type offensive linemen tend to be good pass blockers due to their athleticism. Edge rushers can't run around them and penetrators can't shoot past them easily. But sometimes they can get pushed around by bull-rushers, as they don't have a lot of lard or ballast holding them to the ground.
This is why, in my opinion, shorter guards--6'3" and under--work better, as "low man wins" leverage fights.
Anyway I like this hiring, and feel that the offense will be in the hands of a real pro.
Lane also suggested the possibility that Kyle might have felt stifled a bit under his father, as Mike Shanahan is pretty conservative. Kyle might have wanted to try out some new stuff that scared Dad too much.
Tony Grossi says Johnny Football is a shade over six feet. If that's true then his offensive linemen must average 6'7" and his wide recievers 6'4".
The object of disinformation is to mislead and enemy or opponent. You want them to think your objective is here, instead of where it really is. Believing your plausibly but intentionally leaked BS, they will redeploy assets to the wrong place--drawing them away from the real objective.
Political disinformation is similar. This is used to distract and manipulate. You get the idea.
Intelligence Analysis 101: Step one is the evaluation of sources. You do this by checking out how often they have been right. You rank them by this measure.
Peter La Canfora is usually wrong about the Browns. He also falls for everything in his rush to get it into print first.
So, I just read a Will Burge mock draft in the Bleacher Report which, I have no doubt whatsoever, relied almost exclusively on La Canfora and wishful thinking.
He has the Browns trading up to the second spot for Johnny Manziel. trading their lower first round pick, the 71st overall pick, and maybe a future second rounder to move up two slots.
Will finds this believable, as the Browns failed to get RGIII.
Excuse me. Manziel isn't RGIII. RGIII came with intelligence, more size, a stronger arm and deep accuracy. Zero questions about his dedication or character.
The Browns will, of course, do all that homework. For all I know, they will indeed determine that Manziel is their favorite QB. He might BE the best pro prospect in this draft, for all I know.
But I still can't seem to find out what's wrong with Derrick Carr. What--he's not as exciting? He's got the wrong brother? What is it?
And Bortles. Bortles rose to the occasion every time he stepped up in class, upsetting teams that were supposed to dominate him. Coming back to save the day over and over. Bortles is a guy who proved that when you can't run the ball anymore and the defense is focusing on getting to him and stopping the pass, he could carry his team.
For whatever reason, Derrick Carr isn't at this point even in the top ten discussion. I've got to assume that I'm missing something important about him. Ok, so be it.
But do the Browns really like Manziel more than the bigger, stronger, comeback, rise-to-the-occasion Bortles, or for that matter Teddy Bridgewater?
If I were the Browns and wanted Bortles or Bridgewater, I would let the blabbermouth I'd identified as La Canfora's source overhear me ranting about Johnny Football, and hope that the other GM's are dumb enough to buy it.
Let them trade up ahead of me or whatever.
Thanks in part to Lane Adkins, I know a little more about new OC Kyle Shanahan.
I wasn't all that impressed with Kyle's dad, who won with Elway and then treaded water. But Kyle has done a lot of good things on his own. While we're looking at coach's kids, why the hell not Brian Schottenheimer, the Derrick Carr of coaches?
But it's ok. Kyle is pretty good, and a strong believer in balance.
Lane says he uses a real fullback. The fullback blocks a lot, while the tight ends are mostly recievers. Lane speculated about Greg Little doing some of this tight end stuff, which is intriguing, as he could make an ass of most linebackers.
But I've got to go further than Lane did on the offensive line. The Shanahans use zone-blocking, which relies on athletic and often neccessarily smaller offensive linemen.
Lane isn't optimistic about Alex Mack sticking around, and I hope he's wrong, because he does more or less fit. Joe Thomas, absolutely--Joe fits the zone scheme much better than the man scheme.
NONE of the other players on this team fit. Pinkston might be the closest, but it's still a stretch.
Well, he can't come in here and replace the whole offensive line all at once, as some would assume. Nor is Kyle a blockhead who is incapable of using man blocking when he has to. Zone teams often man block and vice-versa situationally anyway--it's never absolute.
It's good that the Browns have that cap space and all those draft picks (that I really doubt they'll squander on an overhyped undersized QB), as it actually is possible that they could do an overhaul, come to think of it.
Retaining Mack would make this much easier. One free agent. Two day one or two draft picks? Yes, maybe.
Some of you know, I really like the zone scheme. It makes ordinary backs look like stars, as it creates HUGE holes that require only good instincts and one cut to exploit.
Certainly there are drawbacks, as some defenses are capable of overpowering or penetrating--nothing is perfect, and zone wins more than it loses.
Zone type offensive linemen tend to be good pass blockers due to their athleticism. Edge rushers can't run around them and penetrators can't shoot past them easily. But sometimes they can get pushed around by bull-rushers, as they don't have a lot of lard or ballast holding them to the ground.
This is why, in my opinion, shorter guards--6'3" and under--work better, as "low man wins" leverage fights.
Anyway I like this hiring, and feel that the offense will be in the hands of a real pro.
Lane also suggested the possibility that Kyle might have felt stifled a bit under his father, as Mike Shanahan is pretty conservative. Kyle might have wanted to try out some new stuff that scared Dad too much.
Tony Grossi says Johnny Football is a shade over six feet. If that's true then his offensive linemen must average 6'7" and his wide recievers 6'4".
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