Monday, December 29, 2014

Cleveland Browns: So Now What?

I'm glad Jimmy Haslam wasted no time taking a fire-hose to rumors of yet another wholesale upheaval.  Clearly, he's learned that Browns' fans and commentators watch too much unReality TV and too many Soap Operas, and are olympic calibre conclusion-leapers.

Jimmy fired his first largely-inherited crew after the first season, therefore after the team failed to go to the Superbowl a season later, he would fire everybody again.  After all, he has already proven that he is a meddlesome control freak by forcing Ray Farmer to draft Johnny Manziel, right?

I heard these guys on 92.3 (Chris it's a legitimate question Fedor mostly) pointing out the late-season collapse, Johnny's idiot party, Gordon's suspension, and veterans like Dansby and Whitten "throwing team mates under the bus" as evidence of incompetancy.

Another guy --and I can't pick on him too much-- questions both of Farmer's first round picks.  This guy wasn't a reactionary gossip like Fedor, and stipulated that Gilbert and Manziel had the talent to be drafted where they were.  But he suggested that Farmer needed to change something about the vetting process.

After all, these guys (and we know this because the old veterans squealed on them) lacked focus and dedication.  Shouldn't Farmer have spotted this?

A fair question.  But Johnny had had a whole college season to refine his con in order to elevate his draft status.  Now, as we see, his first name should be Barak, because two days after saying he didn't work hard enough and would do better, he throws a big party the friday before the final game.

And I don't feel good about his future at all.  Johnny is like me, and I know me.  I have to really love doing something to be good at it.  When I "buckle down" to something that requires real work, I can't sustain it.

And Johnny loved football when it was simple, and he could just run around and create things.  Now here comes Kyle Shanahan with his Bible-sized playbook and all these check-down and read rules, and he has to learn all that crap.

It's just not fun any more.

Oh, but he knows what to say.  He'll say some more good stuff to appease his voters shortly, and his diminished army of Johnnyites will go into the offseason confident that he will buckle down and do his homework and come back next season transformed into Russell Wilson.

I won't say this can't happen.  I just doubt it.  Not unless he can get himself to love the work part of it, the way Peyton Manning and the aforementioned Wilson do.

As for Gilbert, I'm not worried at all.  Cornerback is far less complex.  

Nor is the fact that Buster Skrine has emerged as an elite corner taken into account.  Gilbert is big and tall, and not as well suited to the slot corner position as the smaller guys, so he couldn't sensibly be started out inside like most rookie cornerbacks are.

He had to dislodge Buster, and he couldn't get it done.  He knows that he'll have to come back next season better than Skrine to claim that job.  He knows it will take all he's got, and I believe he'll do what he has to.

What Whitner and Dansby are saying, Chris Fedor, about the rookies is a GOOD thing.  Pettine can't publicly denounce players, or he'll lose the trust of the team.  But old vets like these guys can and should take it to the streets when nothing else works.

Do you think Gilbert confronted Whitner over this?  No way.  He probably walked up to his locker and said "I hear you." And Whitner probably said "good."

What really happened to derail this train?  A few things, beginning with Alex Mack.  To my own surprise, his loss instantly deprived the quarterback of time to throw and stifled the running game.  I had no idea the guy was that good, or that critical.

Farmer deserves credit for paying the price to hold onto him, doesn't he?

The defenses started holding onto the interceptions that Hoyer had been throwing all along, but it was mostly the loss of that one guy in the middle of the offensive line.  Hoyer and Manziel rarely had time to throw, and were constantly in second and third and long situations.

The defensive line was all but destroyed by injuries, and Gipson went down.  Because of the depletion of the defensive line, there was less rotation, and the players got less rest.  They wore down.  And the hits kept on coming, too.

I've also heard a rumor that Hoyer's shoulder was actually injured much sooner than advertized.  I have yet to confirm that, but it sure would explain a lot.

As for Ray Farmer's potential termination, permabashers can point at the two first round picks, but they conveniently leave out the fact that the Browns now have two first round picks again--and if you call Gilbert a bust after one season, you are an idiot.

Undrafted Free Agents include Crowell, Gabriel, K'Waun Williams, and Glen Winston.  Bitonio, West, and Kirksey are studs who will only get better.  Desir was a starting quality steal.  All this with extra first and fourth round picks in the upcoming draft.

Veteran free agents Whitner, Dansby, Hawkins, Dray...what the hell are you looking at that you'd consider firing a guy that did all this in one offseason?  Because of Manziel and Gilbert?  Really?

What next?  The only thing I'm sure of is that the braintrust knows as well as I do that it can't trust Johnny Manziel.  I'd guess that they'd like to retain Hoyer if the money is right, but other teams will have something to say about that.

They have to draft a quarterback again.  They will target Mariota, and they've got the ammunition to move up and get him if there's a deal to be had.

It would certainly cost them both first round picks this year and then some, up to and including next year's first rounder, but I doubt they'd balk at that price.  All they need is the other end of that deal.

I heard you when you said "Oh god no, not another quarterback!"  But there's really no choice.  They can't trust Johnny, and in reality they can't trust Hoyer either--unless he really was injured for several games.

Mariota has been compared to RGIII, but that's wrong.  Mariota is much bigger and taller, and has a lot more starts in college.  He's proven that he can pass from a pro-style pocket.

But the team has other needs?  Name them.  Well, we see depth at center, I reckon.  Wide reciever?

They should cut Gordan, really?  Seriously?  Well, maybe he is a permanent bone-head, but I doubt it.  It's more like he's a kid.

They'll let him have the offseason to get his act together.  They'd like to keep him more now, because his suspension cost him his sixth game.  That means that after next season, he can be a restricted free agent.  It would cost another team a first round pick to sign him away.

He just cost himself a lot of money, in addition to the game-check, because no team in it's right mind will pay that price for a guy with two strikes in the drug program, and with his history.  

All he can do now is work like he did as a rookie, play up to his potential, and hope Ray Farmer respects that enough to pay him for it.

He may have been a knucklehead, but he's not disruptive or a criminal.  He may be immature, but he's not stupid (no he's not listen to his interviews.)

And if he pulls his head out, he's the best THE BEST wide reciever in the NFL, and you don't cut him until he comes back one more season and lays an egg.

He's not being paid that much, and there's little risk.

Jimmy Haslam, thanks for listening to the veteran players and your common sense and not firing everybody to appease the lynch-mob.  Ray Farmer thanks for not cutting Josh Gordan because Johnny got him too drunk friday night.

The suspension was punishment enough.

He was suspended.  Not enough?  You want him on the rack?  Tie him to a stake and burn him?  

Oh yeah...ah say we oughtta haing him!  Ahh, shaddap.

This just in: Manziel calls the party report bullcrap.  If I jumped all over him based on something some jackass just made up, I apologize.  I was part of the lynch mob.

This just in: The report came from LaCanfora.  That means Johnny is telling the truth and the whole thing is bullcrap.  LaCanfora...Adam Schefter he aint.


Sunday, December 21, 2014

Browns Quarterback Contingencies

Not being a moron, I can't give up on Johnny Hollywood after one game.  Also, because he is so raw, I'm pretty sure he won't get a whole lot better anytime soon.

Mike, Kyle, and Ray will hope to measure improvement on a micro, play-by-play scale in these last two games.  Much of what they'll have to base their decision on heading into the next draft will depend on educated guesswork and projection.

Kyle Shanahan, like his head coach, isn't a politician, and I don't believe he's lying in what he says about Johnny.  The coaches don't secretly hate him.  There isn't a power-struggle with the owner.  Jimmy Haslam isn't Jerry Jones.  Nobody will get voted off the island.  No conspiracies, plots, or drama.

Too many fans and several writers watch entirely too much "reality" tv.

I have no idea what will happen with Manziel, but it does feel like he'll either emerge as an elite quarterback or a complete bust.  The former won't happen this season.

But these last two games for Johnny serve another purpose: They're an audition.

As Mary Kay Cabot reports, all options are open, and reports that they really like Marcus Mariotta are credible.

Remember, the Browns only drafted Manziel after he had dropped to the lower third of the first round.  They really weren't in love with the guy, but simply saw a sale price on him at that point.

A lot of people can't separate a low first rounder from a first overall pick.  They seem to think that if you draft a guy anywhere in the first round, they're completely sold on him, no matter what.

It was a calculated risk at the most important position in football.

It's credible that Ray Farmer wanted Marcus Mariotta last season, and MKC rightly assumes that he still does.  Marcus has all of Johnny's assets with none of his liabilities.  He's much taller, and has proven that he can operate out of the pocket and from under center.

He opted out of last season's draft, and now, with an additional year under his belt, is ready to compete for a starting job in game one.

But there's also a good chance that he will go first overall, and he's a lock for the top 3-5 picks.

Mary Kay is also right about the price tag for the Browns: Both their first rounders this draft, plus next year's first round pick too---if a deal can even be worked out.

Listen: Even if Johnny shows real promise heading into this offseason, Ray Farmer will still be looking into this.  Mariotta shows that much promise.

Jerry Jones likes his current quarterback fine, but Romo is old and injured, and can't keep going forever.  He did like Johnny, and I do believe that his son had to pry the card out of his hand during this last draft.

If Johnny totally sucks in these last two games, we can probably forget about this.  Contrary to popular belief, Jerry Jones is not incapable of revising his opinions, and winning games is as important to him as selling tickets.

But if he does look promising to the Browns going into this offseason, he will also look good to Jerry and the Cowboys.

Think about it: He'll now have three starts under his belt.  He's from Texas.  Romo might well have another year left in him, so the kid won't have to start immediately, and can be groomed by Jason Garrett.

The Cowboys will draft in the bottom five, most likely, and they might cough up that pick for Johnny.

Any such deal wouldn't happen, probably, until the draft itself.  The Browns wouldn't make that deal without having locked up Mariotta already.  But that pick could be part of the deal.

Unlike two seasons ago in the RGIII bidding war, the Browns have a lot of young talent.  Coughing up all those picks for RG would have been stupid given the talent that Browns' team had to surround him with.

NOW, that deal makes sense.

There are other quarterbacks in this draft, even if the Browns stick with Johnny.  At this point, Brett Hundley has a second round grade on him, for example.

In that scenario, Johnny would be the presumptive starter, but the Browns would have some insurance.  Sticking with Hundley, he could have gone in the lower first or high second round last season had he opted in.

Apparently (I haven't looked into it), Hundley's senior season was less than spectacular, as he's being rated from third to fifth among the quarterbacks.  

I wish I knew more, but can tell you this: Things can change fast in college, as whole classes graduate and a quarterback loses his best recievers and linemen.  If not Hundley, there still could be good prospect available even should the Browns stand pat with Johnny.

BOTH of their first round picks will be higher than the slot at which they drafted Johnny.  They might not get Mariota, but they could still land some quarterback with real promise.

You could say that all this is premature, but it's not.  Regardless of how Manziel plays in these last two games, Ray will still like Mariotta better, and will still be looking to spend a high pick on a quarterback.

As for this game, I'm afraid I've got to agree with Pluto.  I think they'll lose.  

I repeat that Manziel himself was only about 20% responsible for last week's loss, because damn near everybody lost their lunch money.

And give the Bengals some credit.  They were the better team.  They earned it.

If the rest of the team gets their head out and Johnny plays a little better, they can definitely win, but it just doesn't feel that way, does it?

Oh well.  Go Johnny go.

...ok wait a minute: Mike Trivisano just told me Johnny sucks.  He and Brian Brennan say we had a bad draft.

Well, Gilbert is coming around.  Desir was a bargain.  Kirksey?  Taylor Gabriel was undrafted.  So was Crowell.  So was K'Waun Williams.  Terrence West was a third rounder, and now you're bashing Ray Farmer?

Oh, give me a freaking break.  The sad thing is, Mike Blowhard could luck out and be right about Manziel.  Blind Squirrel.  Stopped clock.  That would suck.

But these guys are saying "bad draft", obviously, based on Johnny, period.  Assuming facts not in evidence.  

Brennan is extremely smart, but would have got rid of Gordon.  I don't get it.  He did what he did...didn't he?  He's already proven himself.

Ah, well.  I really hope Manziel does better.  Triv can't be validated.  Go Johnny.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Johnny B Good

This was a team loss.  Johnny sucked, yes.  But so did most of the team around him.  If you think Hoyer would have done better (including ball security) you are insane.

I was unable to watch the game, so I have much of what I have from Jim and Doug, and articles about it.

I do have to say that these referees sucked.  While there weren't that many bad calls, there were far too many of them, and the majority were chickenshit.  This crew seemed determined not to let the players just play.  It was maddening.

Some referees are interpreting wide recievers and cornerbacks bumping into eachother as interference, and that's rediculous.

But back to the game.  Joe Haden made a valiant effort, and a couple other defenders played well, but overall the defense was a seive.  So was the offensive line.

Bernie Kosar has more wrong with him than slurred speech.  Owner Jimmy Haslam is in his third season, and most of the front office is new.  How can there even be any such thing as a "culture", and how can that have anything to do with this loss?

In this article on fansided, Zac Wassink questions both the offensive game-plan and the fact that Manziel was not inserted late in some games that were pretty much over.

I agree with the latter.  Mike Pettine seemed determined not to let Manziel have any reps, even when the outcome was a foregone conclusion.  It baffled me.

As for the game-plan, I wish I could have watched the game.

Wassink asserts that Manziel is not a read-option quarterback, simply because he didn't run a lot of it in college.  That's just plain dumb.  He has all the traits of a read-option quarterback, and if it failed in this game, it's not because he can't execute it.

He says that Kyle Shanahan hardly ran any roll-outs.  If that's true, it's crazy.  Manziel will probably never become a true pocket passer.

Shades of Chris Palmer, who I credit for pretty much destroying Tim Couch.

But Shanahan made RGIII look all-world as a rookie by adapting his offense to his skill-set.  If he made a mistake here, I really doubt that he'll repeat it.

I don't know what Manziel's future in the NFL is yet.  You can't shovel dirt on him off of one game in which the rest of his offense might as well have been playing for the other team.

For sure, he needs to get better in a hurry--but so does the rest of his team.

Anyway, one old pattern from previous regimes could emerge:  Now that the team has pretty much destroyed it's hopes for the playoffs, they can safely beat the Ravens.

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Fans See what they Want to See

In this letter to the editor, one fan proves my point.  This guy, like everybody else except the coaches/players/me, naturally blames Gordon for every bad pass.  He talks about drops.  I'm sorry, I didn't see any drops until Johnny took over.

He says that Hoyer didn't lose this game.  To him, everybody else except his guy lost the game.

Well, after that despicable, flagrant, and obvious helmet-first spear to Barnidge's ribs, the Browns were short of tight ends and couldn't execute their game-plan as intended.  This compounded the already challenging pressure that awesome defensive line was putting on the backfield.

After McDonald went down, it was inside penetration.

I rarely blame a quarterback for a loss, and can't do that here.  But he sure was a big part of it!  Yes he was, Mister Rosy Glasses!

I hadn't known how bad it was til Bob Evans wrote this article in Buckeye State Sports.  Statistically, our homie is just atrocious under pressure!  (I mean physical heat, not psychological pressure.) He has been for awhile.

As Bob keeps repeating in the article, these stats don't lie.

When you further analyze this, you remember that his impressive comebacks came when defenses backed off and tried to protect leads, with more people in coverage.

I'm sorry, but it's just the truth.  Hoyer is my guy, but I've taken off my rose-colored glasses and stepped on them.  And unfortunately, this is not something you can coach him out of.

It is possible that his injury did something to his head, so it might get better as he works harder at it.

And as my pal Ray O. Sunshine points out, Hoyer seems to kill teams he plays twice.  Maybe he just needs a real fight to figure them out.  Bengals.  Steelers.  And in the first Steelers' game, he seemed to have figured them out near halftime.

Then there's the fact that he's not really a veteran.  He has (really) 14 games worth of real-game experience.  All his practice and scout-team reps had him as well-prepared as any QB can be without real-game experience, but Rich Gannon wants you to know: There is no substitute.

This might well mean that Brian probably hasn't reached his peak yet.  It also means that both the Bengals and the Ravens could lose because Hoyer knows them now.

So there's some good and some bad here.  

But from another neighborhood in Myopia, I hear that Manziel is a "punk".  One guy calls NFL Radio and said "He was in trouble in Las Vegas, then he got in trouble with that inflated goose or whatever--"

Whoa, partner!  What trouble? He hasn't been in any trouble with the law or the team.  He hasn't missed any meetings.  All the players and coaches say he's quiet, studious, a good team mate, and puts his work in.

Again, you see what you want to see.  What do teammates and coaches know?

We're all like this as children.  You never outgrow it without some sort of guidance, or unless your life forces pragmatism on you as a survival skill.

What you want, or wish for, has nothing to do with what is.  Manziel is not a punk.  Hoyer is not a superstar (or a loser).  Manziel might not be ready.  

And Josh Gordon ran the right pattern.

And Josh Cribbs isn't the same as he was before he got old.

OK.  D'Qwell Jackson still has it.  But so does the much younger/cheaper Craig Roberts.

Because of myopia, undrafted free agent DeShaun Gipson remained invisible, even as he kicked butt all of last season.  You were still declaring a "hole" at safety opposite Whitner.

Roberts was a bust in his second season.

Fans make up their minds, then it's over.  Nothing changes, because they filter out, rationalize away, or just plain deny what contradicts it.

Critical thinking was once taught in schools.  Then came the Department of Education.  Now it's not.  Those people vote.  That's why.

I've checked out Glenn Winston as much as I could.  He makes Crow look like a choir boy.  With Winston it was fights.  We hope he's outgrown it.

When he ran his horrific Pro Day 40, he was seven pounds heavier than he is now.  There's an assertion that he's clocked below 4.5, but his agent could have invented it.

But I've learned to trust Ray Farmer, who not only snatched him up, but talked him up too.  Given Winston's deplorable off-the-field history, which included time in the clink, he simply has to have something going for him for the 49ers to have signed him.

With Crow dinged up, it matters.  One thing is, he's 6'2", and this makes him an easy target if he has some recieving skills.  This also helps in pass protection.

Dug into (center) Seymore a little more:  He's very athletic, and ran zone-blocking in college at about every position.  He has a year under his belt.

I don't know how he'll do in this game, or down the road.  But I'll give him a chance, because I don't make up my mind about guys based on their draft status.

Anyway, he should be fine run-blocking, as long as you understand that we don't need road-graders in this system.  You worry about him getting pushed around in pass protection...which happened last week.

Another concern is line calls, but many teams have a more experienced guard do that when neccessary, and the quarterback can do it too.

It was his first start ever, vs. those lab-built monsters in Buffalo.  Give him a chance.

In conclusion, think with your BRAIN.

YOU STAND CORRECTED.  

Late note:  Gordon took the blame for a d i f f e r e n t interception than the one I referred to.  Nice try.






Monday, December 1, 2014

Quit Blaming Josh Gordon for Interceptions.

I've avoided media coverage of the debacle in Buffalo and it's aftermath, so this one is all based on my own memory of the game.  I was in a Lancaster sports bar Sans other Browns fans, unable to even dig Up a Bills fan.

Coach Coyote benches Hoyer and starts Manziel this week.  Brian has failed.  It doesn't mean he's a failure-just that he blew it this time.

On one play in particular, he threw a crossing zig when Gordon ran a vertical zag.  It was on Hoyer. It would have been a touchdown.  It was intercepted because the defender jumped the route.

Gordon saw the defender make his move, and adjusted to keep going toward the Bills end zone.  Like he was supposed to.

This was not a complex read, as evidenced by the fact that I saw it instantly. Brian had time. He might or might not have locked on, but defenders watching film anticipate situational routes, and take risks based on that.

I believe Brian had his mind made up to throw that pass to that spot, period.  That is not good.

Johnny Benched finally got his chance, ran the hurry-up, and kicked ass.

You could see a stronger arm, among other things.  He had  the strip-sack, yes.  With his arm in motion.  But it was his first ever start in a rediculous situation, and that wasn't the time to just meekly accept a sack.

But he was accurate, even when recievers dropped them.  His td run was another thing Hoyer can't do.

Manziel is SMART, and he's had 12 games to watch and learn.

Some of the national guys are saying that you can't trust a rookie quarterback in a play-off race.  Generally that's true.  But our homie Brian has been pretty bad overall the last several weeks, and that is what. It. Is.  It's irrefutable.

Forget this soap opera crap about Jimmy Haslam forcing the issue.  People are manufacturing this bullcrap out of whole cloth.  This will be Mike Pettine's call, period.

And here, as we have seen, the best players play.  Including quarterbacks.

In Washington, Mike Gruden benched RGIII in favor of Colt McCoy. He earned the respect of the rest of his team with this move, along with his public criticism of RG a week earlier.

Other ex-coaches panned him for this. They're full of crap, as almost every ex-player wants you to know.

Josh Gordon wanted that touchdown.  He knows he'll get blamed for the "miscommunication", and he is sick of it.  The rest of the team spots mistakes like this in the film room, and wait to see how the coach handles it.

With Brian, they've been seeing this stuff for awhile.

It breaks my heart.  I had more confidence in Brian than almost everybody else.  Nor am I closing my book on him.  The good Brian was really good, and his historic comebacks are almost predictable.

If Johhny isn't ready and flames out, simply bring a properly chastened Hoyer back.  

Let the best player play.  If a Coach does that, he'll never lose his team.  And right now, that's Johnny.

I have to add this:  The helmet-first hit that broke Barnidge's ribs was the most blatent spearing hit I've ever seen.  That scumbag's intent was to injure.  It was deliberate.  It was despicable and should have been flagged.

But as we've seen with Jordan Cameron, anything goes with the Browns' tight ends.  Hang on them, hit them in the head, spear them.  It won't be called til there's an uproar about previous non-calls.

And Buster Skrine: The refs use him for a dartboard.  He was clingy early in his career, and got a reputation.  The referees never forget, and think they're not doing their job unless they penalize him a few times per game.  It's a crock.

I'll root for new center Ryan Seymore.  That's all I can say, since I can't find out anything about him.  Well, he did start a lot of games at Vanderbilt, can play any line position, and is smart.

He's officially a rookie, but in reality is in his second season.  He practiced in a zone-blocking scheme, so he's not totally raw.

Last note:  I'm disappointed with Terry Pluto this week.  Usually he's very objective, but this week showed an unfortunate tendancy to blame the reciever every time the quarterback throws where he isn't.

It was worse this time, because he said that Josh Gordon needs to pay more attention.  Terry: Gordon was right.  Hoyer was wrong.  Look at it again.












Sunday, November 30, 2014

The Team Ray Farmer is Building

I have to start out with this link to Jared Mueller on Dawg Pound Daily.  This article compares Taylor Gabriel to Sammy Watkins.

Remember that the Buffalo Bills wanted Sammy Watkins bad, so Ray let them steal their number four pick for only just merely their ninth overall pick...and their first and fourth rounders in the upcoming draft.

Boy, what a dummy, huh?  Sammy is tearing up the league, while Justin Gilbert hardly ever plays!

Jared focuses on the rookie undrafted free agent, microbe Taylor Gabriel, who is ranked above him by Pro Football Focus.  I will add here that anybody who thinks Justin Gilbert is a bust is frankly ignorant.

Gilbert wasn't ready for primetime, and this is actually pretty common for rookie cornerbacks.  In years past, he still would have started, and learned the hard way.  Given those reps he, like Joe Haden as a rookie, would probably be pretty decent by now.

But Mike Pettine can "only go by what he sees", and Gilbert failed to outperform Buster Skrine on the outside.  The best players play here, period.  Then along comes another Ray Farmer lilipution undrafted free agent: K'Waun Williams.

Gilbert's size, speed, and quickness are off the charts, and it's practically inevitable that he will become Joe Haden's bookend.  

That's certainly the plan, since no matter how good the little guys are, there are just too many skyscraper recievers in the NFL that they can't cover consistantly.  Gilbert can learn all the dirty tricks, but Skrine and Williams can't get taller.

But check that out: Ray Farmer has mined out some truly studly undrafted free agents.  (I must also mention that Pettine and company don't seem to give a damn about draft status, or where guys come from.  Skrine was a holdover.  many GMs might have cut him.  Most coaches would have handed Gilbert the job no matter what.)

Seattle, the last Superbowl winner, is loaded with undrafted free agents.  So far our GM looks as good as their GM, and our coach has been as clear-thinking and objective as Pete Carroll in how he uses that talent.

Taylor Gabriel could well be the next Steve Smith.  He has the same skills and the same attitude.  

But all this ignores the rest of that trade:  Buffalo is a pretty good team this season, so they probably wind up somewhere in the bottom third of the upcoming draft.  But even a 20th or 21st overall draft pick is pretty damn good, not to mention the fourth rounder.

This season, players in that range included Brandin Cooks and Ha Ha Clinton Dix.  A GM can find starters with Pro Bowl talent here, and Ray Farmer probably will.

As it stands, Josh Gordon has pushed Gabriel back a step, and Hawkins is a seasoned veteran who has similar skills.  But going forward, Gabriel has the makings of a superstar like Smith.

This Bills game is truly scary.  Any defense that creates that much pressure from a four-man defensive line--or a four man passrush, for that matter--is hard to beat.

It's simple for the back end players to master, so they can play much faster than they can in more complex systems.  They can double up on Gordon without exposing themselves too much to guys like Hawkins, Austin, or Gabriel.  They can cover tighter, because they trust their front not to give Hoyer time to exploit a vertical burn.

If there was ever a game in which Jordan Cameron would make the difference, this is it.

Mike Pettine wasn't giving away any state secrets when he hinted at max-protect.  He'll probably use two tight ends or a tight end and fullback a lot.  

The Browns are kind of forced to try to out-muscle these guys, and it's not a good situation.  With only Gordon and Austin or Hawk running routes, the whole secondary can try to smother them.

There is a little good news here, though: 

1: Gordon, and to a lesser extent Austin, can have guys all over them and still catch ACCURATE passes.

2: The Browns do have the blocking tight ends, backs, and fullback to give Hoyer time even against these guys.

3: The Browns can run the ball on anybody, including these guys.  Shanahan doesn't even have a choice here but to do what he tries to do anyway, and keep pounding until the defense tires.

No, not Marty-ball.  If they run on first down every time, these Bills can stop it.  But they can mix in pitch-outs and conservative dink-passes to get the ball past or outside the front four, and force the secondary players to take down the Browns' big, powerful backs.

4: The Browns' defense vs. the Bills offense makes things look better.

Last week, I read a pretty dumb part of an otherwise excellent analysis.  The writer was pretty clueless about Kyle Orton.  It's true that he doesn't have much of an arm, but he can march a team up and down the field, and can come from behind.

However, he's not very mobile, and due to his arm limitations the secondary can play closer to the line.  The front seven doesn't have to worry about containing him, and can blitze up the gut.  

Orton isn't prone to turnovers, but can be intercepted.  He can't rifle the ball into tight spaces, and has to float them to the sidelines, and intermediate-to-deep.

With a quarterback like him, an offensive coordinator will keep certain routes off the books, and the defense knows this, and doesn't bother to cover them.  

Jim Leonhard, late of the Bills, knows some of these recievers, and is among the smartest and sneakiest safeties on the NFL.  Physically, he's small and not very fast, so he really has to rely on his brains.

In this particular game, he could grab a pick or two.

Overall, these two teams are pretty evenly matched.  I'd feel much better with Cameron, Taylor, Gipson, Dansby, Sheard and the rest.  As-is, I have no idea who will win this.

Oh yeah.  Josh is back!  Browns 75, Bills 6.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Hey Brian: Yeah, Right

Brian Hoyer points out that Josh Gordon is not a savior.  He goes on to say that if you like your plan, you can keep it, global warming is causing global cooling, and that he has a bridge for sale cheap.

It's the night before Christmas, and Brian can't sleep.  He peeked, and he knows that he's getting his favorite toy back.

If you've been watching the Browns, they've been throwing deep passes more in an effort to back the safeties off the line to free up the running game and short routes.  

They've had to do this since Cameron went down and they lost Alex Mack.

The problem has been that he's throwing to microbes who can't outmuscle or out-leap coverage.  As I've mentioned before, Hoyer has been extremely lucky not to have thrown more interceptions.

Defenders are reading vertical first with these fast liliputions and staying ahead of them, so there's rarely been any vertical separation, and without that step or two, even a perfect pass doesn't have much of a chance.

Gordon will change everything.  They can try to cover him the same way, but he won't need any separation.  He'll have the ball or the interference penalty with the exact same passes.

Not that this is all Josh does.  In fact, he's a lot like Julio Jones.  He'll take short ones to the end zone too.  

Ben Tate:  Quit bashing him.  He had a bad run, but he doesn't suck.  The young guys are just a little better, with more upside, and now they can use the third back on special teams.

Nor was he a free agent "miss".  He was signed before the draft, and Farmer couldn't count on snagging two stud rookies at that time.  Nor was he paid anywhere near what was projected--he was a good value for his compensation.

The decimation of the front seven is alarming.  Dansby can't be adequately replaced, and the Browns might even change their fronts because of it.  Sheard was probably the best all-around OLB on the roster.  

Mingo will of course play more, but so will Eric Martin.  He's better than advertized.  Tank Carder may also be emerging as a solid inside linebacker--I got my fingers crossed, anyway.

As for Mingo, he might still be used the same way, and not blitze as much as he covers.  Despite (overstated) loss of Phil Taylor, the Browns may still be able to get pressure with 4.

I have no idea what fronts they'll run now.  With Dansby, there were lots of 4-3 looks with Kruger at DE.  Then still run that, but it depends on Tank  Carder. 

Eric Winston can definitely rush the passer.  Can he cover and mirror?

Regardless, I expect Pettine to make the most of what he's got left.

Terry Pluto did a great job of pointing out how the best players really do play here.  The unknowns see this.  They see real opportunity.  It inspires and motivates them.  Meritocracy works.

I've been waiting a long time for Ray Farmer and Mike Pettine.

Go udfas.

Friday, November 7, 2014

Browns Are For Real

I would first like to thank Jeremy Hill for his inspirational message to the Cleveland Browns.  The gist of what he said was that the Browns weren't that good.

Hill was understandably frustrated, and his comments were almost certainly aimed at his own quarterback.  When he said "They just sat in coverage all day", he meant that Dalton either didn't throw the ball, or missed his target.

But Hill can't say that.  But he had to say something, so he tried to use code-talk. 

 Unfortunately for Hill, when his team plays the Browns again, it will be in Cleveland, and they'll probably have Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron, and Hawk.

Hill is a rookie, and apparently not the sharpest knife in the drawer.  All recievers think they're open on every play, and they tend to expect exactly perfect passes.  In reality, Skrine and Gilbert ate his lunch.

AJ Green has the brains to admit when Joe Haden beats him.

As I said, the Bengals have a Superbowl roster, with no holes in it.  It might look to Hill as if the Browns were outgunned talent-wise.

Well, you can't compare the Browns' wide recievers to their opposite numbers on the Bengals.

But the reality is that the Browns' backfield is better.  The tight ends (without Gordon) are a wash.  The Browns' offensive line is as good or better, even without AMack.  I'm sure that Jeremy on truth serum would admit that Hoyer is better than Dalton, especially when it counts the most.

Commentators and analysts are already talking about the Bengals offense looking listless, but the fact is that it was the Browns' defense finally, at long last, putting it together and playing up to it's talent.

Gilbert, Kirksey, Robert Nelson and others are rookies.  Mike Pettine brought a new defensive system with him.  Hell, look at the depth chart and you'll see that it's described as a 4-3!

They're still getting better!  They'll be better when Jeremy Hill plays them again!  And he just insulted them!

Even if this delusional kid thinks his offense will score more points, the Browns' offense including Hoyer are likewise improving game-by-game, and next time they'll have Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to deal with.

What about the run?  The Bengals couldn't stop it!  Nick McDonald is settling in at center.  I saw eight or or more in the box, but this time it didn't work!  Our guys overpowered their guys.

The offensive line especially will be better next time, as McDonald and the other guys become used to eachother.  

When the Bengals come to Cleveland, Jeremy, they'll be facing a team with more talent than yours has, including at wide reciever.

AJ Green wants to be like Josh Gordon when he grows up, you hear that?  Cameron is as good as any tight end in the NFL.  All three of the Browns' running backs are better than your starter.

Thanks, kid.  You have guaranteed that they'll be ready.  You might get your wish, too: Dalton will be lucky if he can stay on the field.

I hope Jeremy Hill grows up soon, and can't hold his emotional comments against him.

But the Browns will.

Late note: Oh yeah!  Hill is a running back!  Oops




Thursday, November 6, 2014

Don't Worry! Its Marvin and Andy!

Well I wish it was that simple.  The most overrated Head Coach in history is still competent.  Dalton is above average as well.  Too bad.

The Bengals home record says they win this.  They're one of the most talented teams in the NFL.  They don't have any holes in their roster.  Mike Brown has built a Super bowl team.

Fortunately for the Browns, see the title of this post.

I'm prepared for a loss here.  I won't stamp my feet, throw a tantrum, demand firings if they lose.

But the Browns CAN win!

If it's close at the end, do you want Dalton or Hoyer?  So Green's back.  We got Haden.    So Benard was just one guy and they still got a stud running back.  Somehow the defense lets guys run all over them, but comes out with wins.  

A loss here might mean no playoffs.  A win makes the playoffs not just possible, but likely.  T-minus one game after tonight to Gordon time.  Ray Farmer can say what he needs to, but that guy changes everything, and Hoyer will look for him, period.

If the Browns pull this one off, IN Cincinnati, that will prove they're ready for primetime, a year ahead of schedule.

I don't know.  But it's like 50/50, you know?  I seriously can't even work up real doubt.  With this Browns team, anything is possible.

How refreshing.

Sunday, November 2, 2014

An Emotionally Detached Look at Brian Hoyer

If anybody doesn't know what I think of Brian Hoyer, just check back to any of about two thirds of my earlier blogs.  Long before he had earned the starting gig, I was the voice in the wilderness telling the lynch-mob that he could be a whole lot more than a "bridge" guy to the great and awesome Johnny Manziel.

This had nothing to do with where he came from, or the fact that I root for underdogs.  It had to do with his destruction of the Bengals and his unassisted comeback in his first Browns' start vs. the Vikings.

Now, just as earlier I pointed out how ignorant and lazy it is for alleged analysts to blame dropped passes and blown timing routes on him (or any quarterback), I have to point out that you can't ignore blown interceptions either.

I haven't been able to watch all the games, but of those I have, I've seen him throw at least six shoulda-been interceptions.

The most common of these are deep, vertical passes between the hash marks to Hawkins and the other microbes.

They've always had a step-for-step escort of two bigger, taller defensive backs who somehow managed not to reach up and pick the ball off.

I know this pattern, and it's design.  Josh Gordon can outreach and outmuscle the defenders to grab that ball, or at least prevent a pick.  It is utterly insane to try it with a microbe.

I KNOW that Kyle Shanahan and company have slapped him upside the head each time and said "What were you thinking?", and wonder why he keeps trying it.

Previously I asked the philosophical question:  If a pass hits a recievers' hands and is not caught, was it a bad pass?  Now I must ask:  If a pass can be intercepted and is not, was it thrown?

It was thrown.  Brian Hoyer has been the luckiest quarterback I have ever seen so far.  

The good news is that these passes were indeed accurate, and the issue was one of judgement.  It's likely that Hoyer was pressing; trying to make something happen.  Tactically, he did need to threaten deep to free up the intermediate routes.  I think his frustration got the best of him, and he just had to try it.

Brian Hoyer's judgement and intelligence are two of his best assets, so I know he can reign this in before it catches up with him.  But if he doesn't, there will be a reckoning.

I'm glad to hear Manziel say the things he's said, including that riding the bench and watching is good for him.

I'm frustrated to hear some goobers say that Manziel still makes one read and runs, and can never succeed.  

Some analysts will always see what they want and expect to see, no matter how long they have to wait for it.  This includes waiting six or seven seconds for a guy to flee a collapsing pocket, calling a controlled roll-out a scamble, or waiting four or five pass plays for a scramble.

This knucklehead hasn't seen him running the scout team in practice against the number one defense, either, or paid attention to what members of the Browns secondary have said about him.

I believe that Hoyer will get it together and stop making dumb throws.  BUT if he doesn't, well-prepared defenders will start picking him off, and it will be Johnny time.

I wonder if I'll be allowed to show up for Thanksgiving now.  I'm all alone here.  But you just can't let your heart have too strong a voice.

I'm glad Billy Winn is back.  He's one of the two best defensive tackle/ends on this roster, and his position will be better this week than it was last week.

I'm also really glad that they got Jim Dray.  He's not a Cameron, but he sure can help a quarterback move the chains in more ways than one.  Barnidge, too.  I wasn't all that surprised that they held him over from last season.

The loss of Alex Mack and disruption inside has caused some problems, but the main reason that the running game has faltered is how the defenses are playing.  They're "downsizing" for more speed, playing closer to the line, and reading run first.

As Kyle Shanahan said this week, he'd been expecting that. 

These are the times that will try Brian Hoyer's soul.  Early in games, and before he has established that point deficit he likes so much, he'll have to complete some third and longs and yes, even occasionally pass on first down!

It's going to get tough now--even this week.  The main reason that defenses can stack the box is that there's no Josh Gordon.

As it was, you saw how Cameron made them pay dearly.  Defenses were so determined to stop the run (and play-action) that they were willing to risk Cameron hurting them that way to do it.

Now, Cameron is mia as well, and Hoyer and the backs will get the kitchen sink.

Until Cameron and Gordon are both back, this whole thing will be on Hoyer.  

It's a lot to expect, even of some quarterbacks who are considered elite.  It's a very high standard to meet.

My heart says our man can do it.  My head isn't sure.

Sink or swim, Brian.  Time to prove it.  Go get 'em.


Wednesday, October 22, 2014

That Sucked

That Sucked.

Ps: I had thought that after the Pittsburgh game, Brian Hoyer could finally play well more than half the time, or at least only require a 3-point deficit to wake tf up.

But the pattern continues, only now on a larger scale.  For most of the Steelers game, he looked great.  Then for most of the last game, he sucked.  Still 50/50.  It's incredible, really.  Half mediocre/bad, half good/great.

Per the pattern, next week he tears the Raiders a new one.  Then nose-dives a week later.

Well, we'll see.  It's way too early to color Hoyer the new Anderson.  The Jags shut down the run, and somehow muffled Cameron too.  McQuistan lost his lunch money, and he got really pressured for the first time all season.

Hoyer has earned his starting gig, and you don't pull the rug out from under him based on his first truly bad performance.

HOWEVER...well, he needs to get it and KEEP it together, or Johnny should  get his shot.

My friends are threatening to excommunicate me for heresy, but it is what it is.  I'm on Brian's side too, but that's my heart.  My head says if the starter starts failing, you replace him, period.

I don't expect this to happen.  Brian Hoyer has showed us too much, and this was only one game.  Even the Hall of Famers have all had crappy games.  So go Brian.

Or else.

I overestimated McQuistan.  I believe McDonald is the fast-track guy.  They want their top four right guard back at right guard, so the center is the key position here.

Knocking Pettine for his trick plays and fourth down attempts is silly to me.  Three points wasn't going to mean that much, and he was trying to light a fire.  Nothing was going right.  They needed a spark; a real lead to shake the run loose.  

Just beat the next two.  Josh Gordon is getting closer.  See those (shouldn't have tried it/lucked out) bombs to the microbes?  Put Gordon in that defensive back sandwich, and see what happens.