Browns Draft Grade

I have to give them an Incomplete.  Sorry.  I would be a massively huge psychotic egomaniac to grade anybody's draft as soon as it ends.  I'll get back to you in three years.

Dave Kolonich did write an article about Browns draft myths which, as usual, was deep.  When he gets to "If the Browns had traded down (to 16), Mingo wouldn't have been there", he presents a plausible counter.  He based this on the needs of the teams drafting between the two slots.

Point taken, but it's hard for me to imagine that none of those teams would bite the bullet and draft for talent instead.  And at any rate, the Browns simply didn't want to take any chances.

I feel that Dave was kind of unfair in attributing "fourth and fifth rounders don't produce starters" to the Browns.  I could be wrong, but I don't think they said that.

Even if they did, it was just a dumb statement, and not what they meant to say.  To me, this stuff seems obvious, since obviously every year sleepers and gems turn up out of those rounds who become big stars.  But MOST 4th and 5th rounders don't become starters, and those who do don't start as rookies.

Dave points out that trading the 4th and 5th rounders for future picks a round higher (he said 4th and 5th rounders, but I know what he meant see) wasn't a big upgrade, as the Colts will probably draft near the bottom of the round.  I disagree with him that so will the Stoolers.  This is getting to be a superstition around here.  The Stoolers made more shrewd draft picks, as usual, but they're losing ground while their rivals are all coming on strong.

I also think that their top pick, Janoris Jenkins, is a terrific player, but not in coverage, and not compared to Mingo.

But I digress: The article ignores something:

The front office feels that the Browns have a lot more talent than the general public does, and literally didn't see anybody there that they wouldn't have to think about cutting.

If you've read any of my other blogs, you didn't just fall off your chair.  They didn't need a running back or wide reciever.  They didn't need a defensive lineman or OLB.  The "need" for a guard is typicly overstated.  There weren't any tight ends who were better than any on the roster, they'd already drafted a cornerback, and they didn't see a better FS than Gipson.

If you don't see anything you need to buy today, you put your money in a CD or savings bond or something, and that's all they did.

Dave talks about the 2014 quarterbacks: The extra lower round picks won't help the Browns move up to get the top one if the Browns draft near the middle of the round.  That's true.  It would probably take at least a second and a third--and that's a cheap estimate. 

But does that make the extra picks worthless?  Huh?  If you don't have a second or third anymore, wouldn't an extra third and fourth take the sting out?  Couldn't you maybe use them to get back into the second round after you have the quarterback?

Just a couple paragraphs earlier, didn't you point out that stars can be born in the 4th and 5th rounds?

And who says the top quarterback must be the target?  Might there not be more like two or three or more, as early analysts assert?

Dave points out that they don't know for sure that the 2014 class will have more talent than the 2013 crop.  

I don't think Dave would be very good at poker or trading.  He'd need to be sure that the other guy didn't have his full house beat before he'd bet.  Maybe he'd be like that General who said they don't send Rapid Response special forces teams into hot zones without knowing every last detail so they can prevent all casualties.

It's a BET, ok?  Right now it looks like the 2014 class will have a lot of talent (with several quarterbacks) so they're betting on it.

Dave points out that a good pass rush negates a bad secondary is a myth.  He's right, in absolute terms.  But they got McFadden, they like Gipson and another guy so far, Mingo has the tools to cover, and the pass rush really helps a whole freaking lot.

A strong pass rush doesn't negate a bad secondary.  It negates and average secondary.  

My work here is done.