Objectivity and the AFC North

On NFL Radio, the consensus among those who actually know what they're talking about is that the winner in the AFC North is between Stoolers and the Ratbirds.

They naturally attach extra weight to the quarterbacks, but also overweight history and heros.  Yes, the smartest guys in football are guilty of emotional thinking.  I believe this time I've got them, right in their own back yard.

The BENGALS are the team to beat in the AFC Central, and there's a real good chance that the Browns will help them out by beating these two teams at least once each.

1: Andy Dalton was a rookie last season, and that offense used less than half it's playbook.  Dalton should take a big leap between his first and second seasons, whereas Flacco is late in his growth curve and Big Ben might even begin to decline.  Ben has been hurt a lot, and:

2: The Stoolers offensive line has been a sore spot for awhile.  This season, they drafted Mike Adams and David DeCastro to fix it.  Well, DeCastro is on IR, and Mike Tomlin proved that he's NOT smarter than just about everybody else in the NFL by trying to make Adams an NFL LEFT tackle.  NOT.

3: Ed Reed, Saint Ray Lewis, Casey Hampton, Brett Kiesel, Troy Polumalu, Ike Taylor, Ryan Clark, Cheapshot Harrison, Larry Foote, Anquan Boldin, Bryan McKinnie, and Matt Birk are all OLD.  Many have been beat up; notably Polumalu.  In the REAL world, you can't marry NAMES, because players DO decline physicly, and these two teams are declining.

Now, Pat Kirwin would be quick to point out to me that these two franchises are famous for finding and developing young players who are ready to step in, and tend to do great (you know, like Heckert?).  BUT, these teams are hitting critical mass, and they're not going to replace all these guys all at once.  Eventually, all the lower draft picks catch up, and a team fades.

Next, he'd point out guys like Ngata and Pouncy, who are in their primes. But why not MOST of the Bengals roster?

4: The two best running backs in the division play for Cleveland and Baltimore (so stipulated).  But the Bengals have a strong rushing attack, too.  The Stoolers have problems with (typicly) overrated and injured talent, and mediocre blocking.  Because of Tomlin's failed attempt to make a right tackle into a left tackle and DeCastro going down, that won't change, and might even get worse.

They'll have to pass a lot.  Everybody knows it.  That's bad.

5: In addition to their defensive stars going over the hill, the Ravens lost their top passrusher for at least most of the season to injury.  And Harbaugh doesn't DARE replace either of his old icons, even as it becomes clear that he should.  He might get lynched!

OK--Reed is still dangerous, because he's so smart, devious, and sneaky.  But he won't be as good as ever.  Nope.  And my favorite part of the Browns vs. the Ravens is Ray Lewis on his back.

I believe that the Browns had the best draft in this division, but I can't fight those who'd say the Bengals out-did them.  They got arguably the second-best cornerback in this draft (Kirkpatrick), a very good starting guard in Zietler, a solid defensive lineman, a good reciever in Sanu to help complement Green, among other things.

6: Adam Schein reluctantly conceded that the Browns might win one game.  When asked who they might beat, he picked the Bengals.

I rest my case.