Monday, May 10, 2010

Browns: Opinions

If I were an NFL GM, I'd have as sophisticated an intelligence-gathering aparatus as possible. As I tell everybody, Bill Belichick should have had me spy on his opponents--I wouldn't get caught.

But in this case, I mean moles everywhere, and yes: skilled analysts. I need to know what the other guys are going to do in the draft, all the way through. (Note to the idiocrats out there: You can never be sure of anything).

I was stunned when the Browns selected TJ Ward in the second round, when there were several players which consensus had rated higher both overall and in the position; especially given his injury history. Of course, I didn't join the herd making noise about it. I wanted to understand why they did what they did--with both him, and Hardesty in the third.

Well--of late, the safeties are rated differently than they were in the past. Cover two is common in the league, and in this scheme both safeties must cover wide recievers well. They need to be a sort of strong/free safety cross, and more free than strong.

In reality, were the safeties still split into strong and free sub-categories, Ward would have been the top strong safety if the massively more hyped Taylor Mays wasn't. The team doctors said he was fine, and should remain fine--and they were believed. Want to argue with them? Go get a medical degree--otherwise shut up.

But I digress: Ward is not even only a strong safety, simply because he was used as one by his college coach. In reality, the guy can cover, too.

A reach? Maybe. But the fact is that they must have known that Ward wouldn't last until the third. They consider themselves and their peers better judges of talent than Mel Kiper, and they've got a grapevine.

The important thing now is what kind of difference Ward will make, and if he helps enough, then it's a good pick, period (assuming they were right about not being able to get him later--and I do assume it.)

It appears right now that, regardless of what the base coverage scheme is officially called, Rob/Eric want to run some under/over coverages with a center-fielder, ala Rockins/Wright.

That makes sense, since with the addition of Joe Haden, they now have two outside corners who bump-and-run, depriving a quarterback of his primary and probably secondary recievers for five seconds or so. Minnifield and Dixon were the reason why Felix Wright was able to play off the line in the middle as a last line of defense (or a human missile vs. the run).

There's a trade-off with man-coverage, and that's that the cornerbacks have to turn and run with the recievers. They can't stand back to watch the backfield for the first second to read pass or run, since they have to jam the reciever and then not lose him. As a result, when it is a run, they're usually caught running downfield, don't know it's a run til they hear team-mates shouting it, and then have to reverse direction, find the ball, etc.

That makes sense too, since Wright is knocked for his run-support, but not for his coverage. By the way, Sherlock--he was USED in man-coverage a lot, so..........

The cover two emerged partly as an answer to 3 and 4-WR sets. It works best in zone and with zone corners. But things evolve, and finally with Rob Ryan and yes--Eric Mangini, I believe we have coaches who are for once ahead of the curve. And Ryan--wow--I mean he'll just invent new stuff each week to adapt to the coming opponent.

Six linebackers? Five man fronts? And there aren't enough labels to describe the positions he has guys play. Kaluka--that undersized USC afterthought linebacker? Some coaches wanted to make him a safety. Ryan used him like one. Who cares what he's called?

Same goes for corners and safeties. And he's probably on cloud nine now, because he can now do anything in coverage. After a lot of homework, I'm now willing to bet that Ryan was the loudest voice asking for Ward.

There is little doubt that the majority of the cornerback coverage will be bump-and-run, but Haden is also exceptional in zone. Ward can play strong safety in a conventional set, or (I'm telling you) be half of a 2-deep pair, out of which set he can really fly at ballcarriers and recievers and blast them.

Brown (at his age) and Adams are similar players; Felix Wright. They don't have as much sand in their pants as you'd like in a twin safety, but can play free safety just fine; just like Felix Wright, who was more just a brain than physicly talented, and a human missile (I loved him.)

Brown will be labelled a cornerback, but that means nothing. He's a bigger corner who can still man-cover smaller guys, reads well out of a zone, and is tough on the run. Adams will still be a safety, but can man-cover skyscrapers and tight ends, and is also tough on the run.

Elam is an aging journeyman, better in the box than deep. I believe he'll be a depth guy, behind Ward more than the other guys.

We shouldn't forget Asante, who does have some skills and could really show up as more than a special teamer. Much like Ward. (They wanted a type).

Brown or Adams deep, press/man on the corners, and the most appropriate combination of Maiava, Elam, Brown/Adams, Jackson (if he's here--he's really ticked off), McDonald(?) intermediate in a predominant nickel inside zone. Hazardous. Very hazardous with the penetrations into the offensice backfield.

As a side-note to this, it looks more and more likely that Rogers will return, and be more sensibly used at every line position. I like that fine. He's wasted at nose tackle while Ruben is pretty good and plays it correctly. From the outside, I bet you that Ryan will let him go ahead and attack all he wants, because he'll cause more problems to the offense than he will to this defense.

Of course it helps if you can have a guy off the line looking for holes to fill, and quick/fast ILB's and safeties.

Anyway, who knows from "reach"? But right now Ward looks like a starter and an upgrade--that'll work.

I'll get to Hardesty next.

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