Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Quarterbacks

I listen to John Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Phil Simms, Mike Mayock, Solomon Willcotts, Jim Miller, Gil Brandt, Rich Gannon, and others about quarterbacks. Read that again.


I know that I am not an expert on quarterbacks. I am an expert on who IS an expert, how much weight I should attach to their opinions, and how to piece things together.


If you think you know better than these guys, you need to check your massive ego at the door.


These guys got my head spinning. Latest is Gruden, Jaws, and Simms on Clausen. (Interestingly, none of them seemed to give a damn that he came from the same college as Quinn. Amazing, isn't it?)


Anyway, Gruden and Jaws fairly gushed over him. He moves okay, has a good arm, is accurate, reads well, and has all those come-back wins. Simms had far less to say; I had to pick out a couple little comments: Arm, accuracy.


Gannon and Miller, by the way, think the leadership stuff is assenine: Gannon said "You NEED to be combative!" By the way, do you know what Tom Brady does when a reciever runs a bad route? Huh? Think he's all peaches and sugar?


A bad PD article pointed out that Quinn's and Clausen's accuracy was comparable; Quinn 59% and Clausen 62%. First of all, three percent is significant. Second, compare their final seasons at Notre Dame, and you see Clausen over 68%. He got BETTER!


What's this mean? Maybe nothing. Maybe that Clausen IS an option with the first pick.


I do still think that Bradford is all-planet and if they can get him (Rogers/Jackson/#7/a 3rd/a 5th maybe?) that would be ideal. Clausen would have to be taken where the Browns are now, as Buffalo might want him.


McCoy might well not be there at #38. To get him, the Browns would need to trade, down and/or up. McCoy has nice brains, accuracy, athleticism. But he has the weakest arm, and isn't so hot on corner routes, nor can he rifle it to get it through tight spaces before defenders can react. Clausen can do most of what he does, plus fire it deep. He's bigger/stronger too.


The other quarterbacks are far riskier. In the past, Holmgren has always drafted quarterbacks late, and sometimes scored on them. But he's just come to this team, and reall has no quarterbacks. He has to minimize the developmental time and risk. He drafted his low picks with an eye to the future when he had quarterbacks installed, and he was much younger. Some failed utterly, and others were permanent backups. Even for him, the odds on low picks are long.



Those who advocate waiting a year and then taking Jake Locker are retarded. Locker is likely to be the first overall pick. Are the Browns supposed to also throw all their gamdes and make sure they finish winless to make sure they get him? Look--shut up. You shouldn't be allowed on a jury or near a voting booth.


Nor is Locker better than Bradford, even if he can throw the ball farther or run around better.


What about what Holmgren said? "I wish I liked him better."? Do you think he meant it? Do you ass ume he meant that he wouldn't draft him? Do you also ass ume that Holmgren couldn't change his mind even if he wasn't lying? Maybe he wishes he liked him as much as he likes Bradford.


Another thing: when Holmgren says "it would be hard", he means "it would be hard", not "I would never do that".


Write this down: When you ass ume, you make an ass of yourself.


I have no opinion; I'm just trying to prognosticate, and read Heckert/Holmgren/Mangini. Whoever they draft, I believe he'll have a good chance to succeed. And I won't make an ass of myself saying anything like "What the hell is he doing? What an idiot!"


And my revised assessment is that Clausen is a viable candidate at #7, and might even be "Plan B" failing a trade-up for Bradford--which I feel is their only shot at him. And I mean a trade-up to #1.


Finally: Quinn's draft stock fell as the draft approached because they studied his films, and said this: Inaccurate.


Clausen's stock is RISING because they study his films and say this: ACCURATE, and comes back late; better under pressure. Aside from Golden Tate, he had a weak team. He DID play vs. elite competition. Last season, he came from behind four times-he brought his team back. You can't teach that.


The two aren't even comparable. Sorry Clausen aint pretty, guyth, but...there ya go.


Alarm bells on McCoy: Solomon Willcotts, former Bangle/Stooler safety, said he didn't like how he played vs. elite competition. This guy made his living studying opposing quarterbacks, and I listen to him. He said much the same about Quinn as his draft approached. You CAN'T say that about Clausen.


I believe he likes Clausen too. And Jim Miller and Rich Gannon. Brandt is kinda neutral (update: He really likes him, including his leadership.) NONE of my experts bach him, although until recently they said that #7 would be "too high" for him.


If you ever read this blog, you would know that I wanted to know why.


I mean, you stipulate that he has the arm, accuracy, and all the other stuff...you say all this good stuff about him, and your only doubts are about his big toe and emotional maturity...you have described a pretty damn good NFL QB...and seven is too high?


UPDATE: #7 is not too high.

UPDATE: Heckert and Holmgren just said a lot of something for everybody, including they're talking to the Rams about trading up for Bradford...but it would be really hard...but...

The Rams just got new owners who did not hire the current coach or GM. The Rams are like many of you hallucinate the Browns are: Needs everywhere.

They need improvement--four wins could saved their jobs, or at least put something positive on their resumes. If they take Bradford, they'll be forced to play him, and he'll get slaughtered. They have to build an offensive line and a defense first.

Established veteran players have real value for them. Rogers, warts and all, is currently a one-man wrecking crew, and as he ages can be a solid space-eater for a couple more seasons. Jackson, contract demands and all, led the NFL in tackles two seasons ago, and is young. The Browns even have a couple pretty good running backs they could toss in. I would personally include Delhomme, but doubt that Holmgren agrees and will defer to him.

If you were the Rams GM and could turn one draft pick into tw Pro-bowl calibre defensive insta-starters, a decent running back like Jennings, the elite left tackle you could get at number seven, and another starter with a third round pick you'd get...

No, of course not. You'd take the doomed quarterback. Ok I give up.

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