Sunday, January 11, 2009

Pre-emptive Draft Strike

I just looked at the top fifty rated players (per Scout.com), and roughly counted them by position. It was very intersting, in view of the Browns actual (and not hallucinated) needs/areas for improvement.



Leading the quantity-list are seven offensive tackles and six cornerbacks. verily, bumper crops of these guys. Next, with five each, are the OLB's and wide recievers.



On the other side, the Quarterbacks, safeties, DE's and guards have only two each.



Teams are always looking for QB's, so the second quarterback should go well ahead of his ranked spot. The defensive ends should also get snatched up quickly and perhaps prematurely, and ditto the safeties.



The guards are a little different. Regardless of how good they are, they tend to slide--it's pretty uncommon for one to be taken in the first round at all.



There are three centers, and these guys tend to slide as well. So do middle linebackers, of which there are also three. there are three defensive tackles in the top fifty, and these guys should go pretty early too. Where's Butch Davis when you need him?



Four running backs, with three in the elite class. None of these are Adrian Peterson, and the first might not be taken until after the top five.



Where's all this leading?



Well, if I were in charge of the Browns, I would clean house. I know I could get a middle second-rounder and perhaps a bag o chips for Anderson, and that and more for Winslow, and I'd do that. I'd also see if I could get anywhere in this first round, or perhaps a second and a third, for Braylon Edwards.



I'd try to get a fourth for Motormouth Smith, and a sixth for Darnell Dinkens, too.



Now I would have the 5th overall pick, #5 in the second, then maybe #13 and #15 in the second, #5 in the third...and we'll be conservative and leave it at that, plus the high fourth rounder.



(I know compensitory picks etc. so maybe the numbers aren't exact big deal).



Thirty five of these top fifty players are rated with five stars, meaning that they have a really good chance of starting or at least playing a lot as rookies. Even the fiteen with four stars are very good players.



My scenario gives the Browns four picks in the top 50, and 5 in the top 75.



As it stands, before the Browns pick, the QB probably gets grabbed. One of the top two offensive tackles might or might not go up there, but certainly not both, with as many as there are available.



The top two cornerbacks are pick 'ems--you could take either of them and be happy. I don't think either will be taken in the top five.



The middle linebackers should remain...well, I'm getting bogged-down here. The thing is, what could I get for the fifth overall pick?



Well, probably not much. There's only the one quarterback.



But I'd still try. I mean, I could find myself sitting there staring at a bunch of players worth #5, and I have several needs.



One or both of the top two offensive tackles, either of which could immediately dominate on the right side, and down the road provide depth at left tackle. Both these guys could also play guard, as well.



Probably both of the elite cornerbacks (Listen: our starters ARE veterans, and coaches coach. We need more at cornerback, but it doesn't have to be a veteran, so shut up.)



Though not a (legitimate) NEED, both of the elite middle (inside) linebackers will remain, and be mighty tempting. Put these guys in a rotation with Jackson and Bell, and you've got a very strong and deep corps for years to come.



There are two passrushing defensive ends ranked up there. Could they play linebacker? I don't know, but I DO know that aUSC OLB not even ranked in the top fifty WAS a defensive end, and was overshadowed by Laurenitis.



Chris Wells is ranked second at his position and fifteenth overall. The Browns HAVE the 212-lb. Jerome Harrison behind Jamal Lewis, but I'd have to consider taking this guy. I mean. he's just a HAMMER, and at 6'1" looks like a good blacker and reciever, and should get even bigger/stronger than his current 238 lbs.



...but not at #5. The other MLB should go ahead of Laurenitis, and he maybe not in the top fifteen or twenty. the first wide reciever might not be taken in the top ten, and the third-best tackle in the top twenty. The first cornerback might slide below ten.



Both of the top defensive ends are undersized, and might be situational guys at first even in a 4-3. they might go after the top ten...etc.



My ideal DA trade would be the Lions. They would NOT cough up their first-round pick for him, but might surrender their second-rounder (and no bag o chips). This would take that QB off their radar, and make it more likely that he'd be there for somebody to trade up to #5 for (wish I could remember the order...ah! Ok the QB is gone anyway. Tough to trade down in this draft.



But that's ok! I got the top second-round pick for DA!



Ok but maybe I could trade the pick for a player...



...ok nevermind. But who would I take fifth overall?



Well first, the strategy: I now have #1, #5, and # 13 in the second round. In that area I could wait to grab three of these players:

ILB Laurenitis OSU

Eugene Monroe OT VA

Guard Duke Robinson OK (the best guard)

The best center

OLB Brian Cushing USC (started previous season as stand-up DE and did great)

et al.



And then, wide recievers are available late; notably Rodney Robiskiefield of OSU, who could even slide into the third round.

At #5 I'd have to look hard at Chris Wells, the top two cornerbacks, and the top tackle available.

But there's no (real) urgency at RB, I'd have a lot of cap-space to sign a really good vet cornerback (there are a bunch highly rated who will slide into the second round and be available--they're just small guys like we already have).

I guess I'd probably take the best offensive tackle. I mean, these guys don't grow on trees (ready to start), and the ripple effect on the offensive line would be immediate.

Micheal Ohr would fit into either a man or zone scheme well, especially at right tackle (OH I forgot! I got a high third or low second rounder for Kevin Shaffer ok?)

Now (let's leave Tucker at right guard, ok?) you'd have bookend tackles protecting both edges, each of which can block well upfield in space, and Ohr is a pretty decent drive-blocker as well.

On the Browns roster is a pretty good young right tackle to provide quality depth, who would have challenged to start there this season. He can also play left tackle, but needs work there. Ohr, on the other hand, is a left tackle who can also play right tackle. Now in addition to upgrading the blocking on the right side, you have provided quality long-term depth at left tackle too.

NOW, of you could also nab guard Duke Robinson in the second round, wow! (I love Ryan Tucker, but you need to think long-term. But ok I might be overboard with the offensive line).

But Laurenitis is a no-brainer, despite the fact that with Bell and Jackson and a more intelligent scheme, the defense is already strong at inside linebacker. The ideal situation is a rotation anyway so that they don't get worn down.

Williams could remain as the nickel linebacker, where he does a pretty good job, and be given the opportunity to compete at OLB by more intelligent coaches.

But even as low as the middle of the second round, Brian Cushing could still be around. 4-3 teams would be much less interested in him than 3-4 teams, so this would eliminate some potential suitors and help his slide.

Cushing could right away push Alex Hall and Wimbley.

Cushing was recruited and started out as an outside linebacker. He was then moved to stand-up defensive end in a type of 3-4 for one season, and he did a fine job against top competition. Last season, he returned to the more conventional outside linebacker spot.

Cushing does it all, including doing a good job in coverage, and his college experience makes him a natural fit for the new Browns defense.

We can still hope that Wimbley will finally learn some new moves, or that moving him around will help his pass-rush--or simply that Alex Hall continues his rapid growth and starts commanding more attention when he attacks the QB.

Ideally, you bring Cushing in and the other two kick too much butt for him to play a lot, but at the very least here is another well-schooled and capable guy competing...who won't let you down in coverage or against the run, either.

Then maybe even in the third is Robiskie, although his clock-times at the combine are likely to elevate his stock somewhat...(I hope he sprains and ankle or something).

This dude is an inch taller than Braylon Edwards and has good hands. He also runs crisp patterns and can burn (he's a track star). He's currently only 199 lbs., but this is partly because he did run track, and he'll grow to be bigger than almost all cornerbacks and a lot of free safeties.

He is currently (inexplicably) rated ninth in this bumper-crop of wide recievers, and is one of the reasons I'd strongly consider trading Edwards for the right price.

Robiskie, TWO big burners on the practice squad, and Jurevicious, who should return. (He doesn't need to be as fast as he was, or even to get open. Even if he's covered, he's open because he'll reach or muscle for it.)

And then Rucker--who isn't a wide reciever but is still here to do what K2 does.

Anyhow I know it's too early to take any of this seriously but I'm bored so there you go okbye.

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