Why the hess doesn't Randy Lerner even want to talk to Sundquist? Although the Broncos have faded of late, for the bulk of his service in denver, that team was a perennieal contender; one he built.
Because of this, they of course drafted low for quite awhile as well.
This is the guy who used the Browns cast-off defensive linemen. And before you say "Duh, well, that sure worked out for 'em, dind id?" check their record that season, then shut up.
And he doesn't MIND Mangini already here! For cryin out loud, Randy!
And THIS guy is famous for trigger-pulling on draft day. One year, I vaguely remember...He made like trades and wound up with 6 first-day picks or something. Randy? RANDY!!!!
I like Chris Steuber. Whenever I wonder who the hell a player is and what he can do, I cross my fingers and hope Steuber has profiled him, because I just don't trust anybody else...except Gil Brandt. And Mike Moyak (sp?--ex-cornerback--said Cutler was better than the other guys, and Edwards too).
He's just updated his draft-board with juniors. NOW, there are two quarterbacks in his (fairly reliable) top seven players. This makes the Browns 5th overall pick a lot more valuable, and renders a trade-down more likely.
This draft is tricky. One guy on NFL Radio predicted a "run" on tackles in the first round. Because? Because there are a bunch of them. Which doesn't make sense.
Steuber's top two players are offensive tackles. Then #13 and #15 also play that position. Other boards I've seen list three more in the top 30 players. All of these guys could be day one starters. Although the top two are a cut above, the next two aren't far behind, and the rest of the crop is nothing to sneeze at.
So if you're a GM and want a tackle, why would you use your top pick on one if you think you can get one later--if you have other needs, and the guts to take a risk?
On the other hand, left tackles are hard to get. If a team has one, they don't let them go--you don't get them as free agents. You have to draft them. And very few projects work out.
With few exceptions, a left tackle is a safe pick. You can see a lot more of their potential in college, and more reliably predict their performance. There are some exceptions, but these are few.
So I suppose that this could make the top two guys go early. Maybe one in the top five, and possibly both.
But the QB's? Both probably gone. (Famous last words: Brady Quinn. We'll see--for now let me be optimistic).
Now, I bet Sundquist would come here and see if he could get Detroit to deal for DA. If you think this means the first overall pick, you are delusional. If you think he has no value, you are worse.
DA is a two-year starter still early in his carreer, and still developing. He has won a lot of games, and set records. He has one of the three or four strongest arms in the NFL, and you can't teach that.
As a veteran, he's ready to start immediately. Every head coach thinks he can slap some polish on a guy ,like this and turn him into Dan Marino.
If you are Detroit's GM, you can use that top pick on a QB, go broke paying him, and then either watch him get killed or bench him for at least half a season...and cross your fingers he's not another Alex Smith, and doesn't get you fired.
OR, you can trade your second and fourth-round picks for DA, and trade that top pick to get that and more back. At worst, maybe you use it on a decade's worth of pass-protection.
For the Browns, doing this would take Detroit out of the quarterback derby. Somebody else might trade up with them and grab one, but the fact that there are two of them, and the third-ranked QB has a first-round grade on him as well, makes it a little less likely.
There are two QB's, and one could slide to the fifth overall pick.
If both are gone, forget it. No trade-down. But if one is still there, somebody might make a move.
Yeah, and I'd be there for them! Move down say three or four slots, and get maybe a second this season and a third next season out of it.
Then the Browns could still snag one of the top two cornerbacks, or maybe one of the undersized DE's if they project well to 3-4 OLB, or even either of the top 2 running backs.
I still love Harrison and bet the new coach will let him play. I also think Jamal Lewis can be okay for another season...maybe...but you can't have enough, really.
On that subject, Mareno is actually another Harrison. In reality, Harrison is a little shorter, but as big or bigger weight-wise, and a similar type of home-run hitter.
Wells, on the other hand, is a tackle-breaking hammer who some compare to a young Jamal Lewis. (Remember: Early on, Lewis broke loose for a lot of big, long runs--that's what they mean).
But there are four running backs with five stars on them, and it might be tough to justify taking one in the top ten, especially with the Browns' other needs.
I mean, either of the top cornerbacks could step right in and push McDonald to the nickel slot, rendering the secondary solid (with the addition of a quality free agent). They both have the size to cover the bigger recievers which have punished the Browns, and tackle like safeties.
IF IF IF one of the top two DE's could trasition to linebacker and at least start out their rookie seasons as situational passrushers, this would really put heat on Hall and Wimbley, and from among the three of them, maybe the Browns could finally have a 2-way edge-rush so the 3-4 could work like it's designed to.
The forgotten draft pick from last year, Bell, might well start next to Jackson inside this coming season and do great, but the top two ILB's in this draft are tempting too.
Pat Ryan on NFL Radio is skeptical about Laurenitis. He lists at 6'3", 240, but to Ryan he still looks "too small". I have to take this former college DE and Bears DT/NT seriously--but then Steuber doesn't seem worried about that.
And at 6'3", he mght appear wiry at the moment, but he'll get bigger in the NFL weight room, and this is not a 4-3.
NOTE: In a 4-3, the inside linebackers do NOT have to be big huge monsters who throw 325-lb. guards around like rag dolls...please stop it stop it stop it!!! They need to be fast, aggressive, and able to cover DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
While another ILB might not (on this planet) be an urgent need, it sure would be nice to have three.
Earlier, I thought about another offensive tackle...but with the salary cap being what it is, you probably shouldn't draft a left tackle high, pay him all that money, and then play him at right tackle...even if he's the best right tackle in the NFL.
...but you could sure get a bargain on your new right tackle/backup left tackle in the second round in this draft!!!
I dunno...probably the cornerback, I think. I mean, these are rare players. Hall might well come out gangbusters, ryan might have the brains to at least try Williams outside sometimes, Wimbley might bloom late, Bell probably WILL kick butt--cornerback is one area that would make a big difference.
...and these guys are like extra safeties. You don't think that matters as much as it does, but you see it when they meet a 220+-lb. running back on the edge, or pull a tight end to the turf without help, or knock a ball loose.
But Wells...damn I like him! Top level competition, big plays, big games in big games, BIG. 6'1" means he can reach for passes. He can block.
Man, what would an intelligent coach do with this? You got this rookie monster, Jamal Lewis fading, and the Ghost to play with. You could take some carries off Lewis to preserve him, and spare the kid that rookie "wall". With Harrison, thunder-and-lightening in a 2-back, or just changing the pace as the single guy.
Got to think about that. A running game is a QB's second-best friend.
And Lewis...I do think that all those carries are catching up with him. I mean, was it all the offensive line's fault that they couldn't run? How many times when he broke into the open field did he do anything with it? Wells--as of next season, he might be better than Lewis out of the gate, and an upgrade is an upgrade.
Even if Lewis is still solid for the duration of next season, what about after that? Are we looking for a running back again?
Even if Harrison is, as I insist, capable of starting (if not stoning 250-lb. blitzing linebackers), you STILL need more than one running back, and ideally three.
And Wells stands out from the other guys. He's got 30 lbs. on most of them. You KNOW he can run inside in the NFL, and block linebackers.
I dunno...gotta think about it...
My DA trade would leave the Browns with two top second-round picks. That could be an offensive tackle or the best center or the best guard.
Ah, well...just spitballin go back to your "cheep"-in.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Pre-emptive Draft Strike
I just looked at the top fifty rated players (per Scout.com), and roughly counted them by position. It was very intersting, in view of the Browns actual (and not hallucinated) needs/areas for improvement.
Leading the quantity-list are seven offensive tackles and six cornerbacks. verily, bumper crops of these guys. Next, with five each, are the OLB's and wide recievers.
On the other side, the Quarterbacks, safeties, DE's and guards have only two each.
Teams are always looking for QB's, so the second quarterback should go well ahead of his ranked spot. The defensive ends should also get snatched up quickly and perhaps prematurely, and ditto the safeties.
The guards are a little different. Regardless of how good they are, they tend to slide--it's pretty uncommon for one to be taken in the first round at all.
There are three centers, and these guys tend to slide as well. So do middle linebackers, of which there are also three. there are three defensive tackles in the top fifty, and these guys should go pretty early too. Where's Butch Davis when you need him?
Four running backs, with three in the elite class. None of these are Adrian Peterson, and the first might not be taken until after the top five.
Where's all this leading?
Well, if I were in charge of the Browns, I would clean house. I know I could get a middle second-rounder and perhaps a bag o chips for Anderson, and that and more for Winslow, and I'd do that. I'd also see if I could get anywhere in this first round, or perhaps a second and a third, for Braylon Edwards.
I'd try to get a fourth for Motormouth Smith, and a sixth for Darnell Dinkens, too.
Now I would have the 5th overall pick, #5 in the second, then maybe #13 and #15 in the second, #5 in the third...and we'll be conservative and leave it at that, plus the high fourth rounder.
(I know compensitory picks etc. so maybe the numbers aren't exact big deal).
Thirty five of these top fifty players are rated with five stars, meaning that they have a really good chance of starting or at least playing a lot as rookies. Even the fiteen with four stars are very good players.
My scenario gives the Browns four picks in the top 50, and 5 in the top 75.
As it stands, before the Browns pick, the QB probably gets grabbed. One of the top two offensive tackles might or might not go up there, but certainly not both, with as many as there are available.
The top two cornerbacks are pick 'ems--you could take either of them and be happy. I don't think either will be taken in the top five.
The middle linebackers should remain...well, I'm getting bogged-down here. The thing is, what could I get for the fifth overall pick?
Well, probably not much. There's only the one quarterback.
But I'd still try. I mean, I could find myself sitting there staring at a bunch of players worth #5, and I have several needs.
One or both of the top two offensive tackles, either of which could immediately dominate on the right side, and down the road provide depth at left tackle. Both these guys could also play guard, as well.
Probably both of the elite cornerbacks (Listen: our starters ARE veterans, and coaches coach. We need more at cornerback, but it doesn't have to be a veteran, so shut up.)
Though not a (legitimate) NEED, both of the elite middle (inside) linebackers will remain, and be mighty tempting. Put these guys in a rotation with Jackson and Bell, and you've got a very strong and deep corps for years to come.
There are two passrushing defensive ends ranked up there. Could they play linebacker? I don't know, but I DO know that aUSC OLB not even ranked in the top fifty WAS a defensive end, and was overshadowed by Laurenitis.
Chris Wells is ranked second at his position and fifteenth overall. The Browns HAVE the 212-lb. Jerome Harrison behind Jamal Lewis, but I'd have to consider taking this guy. I mean. he's just a HAMMER, and at 6'1" looks like a good blacker and reciever, and should get even bigger/stronger than his current 238 lbs.
...but not at #5. The other MLB should go ahead of Laurenitis, and he maybe not in the top fifteen or twenty. the first wide reciever might not be taken in the top ten, and the third-best tackle in the top twenty. The first cornerback might slide below ten.
Both of the top defensive ends are undersized, and might be situational guys at first even in a 4-3. they might go after the top ten...etc.
My ideal DA trade would be the Lions. They would NOT cough up their first-round pick for him, but might surrender their second-rounder (and no bag o chips). This would take that QB off their radar, and make it more likely that he'd be there for somebody to trade up to #5 for (wish I could remember the order...ah! Ok the QB is gone anyway. Tough to trade down in this draft.
But that's ok! I got the top second-round pick for DA!
Ok but maybe I could trade the pick for a player...
...ok nevermind. But who would I take fifth overall?
Well first, the strategy: I now have #1, #5, and # 13 in the second round. In that area I could wait to grab three of these players:
ILB Laurenitis OSU
Eugene Monroe OT VA
Guard Duke Robinson OK (the best guard)
The best center
OLB Brian Cushing USC (started previous season as stand-up DE and did great)
et al.
And then, wide recievers are available late; notably Rodney Robiskiefield of OSU, who could even slide into the third round.
At #5 I'd have to look hard at Chris Wells, the top two cornerbacks, and the top tackle available.
But there's no (real) urgency at RB, I'd have a lot of cap-space to sign a really good vet cornerback (there are a bunch highly rated who will slide into the second round and be available--they're just small guys like we already have).
I guess I'd probably take the best offensive tackle. I mean, these guys don't grow on trees (ready to start), and the ripple effect on the offensive line would be immediate.
Micheal Ohr would fit into either a man or zone scheme well, especially at right tackle (OH I forgot! I got a high third or low second rounder for Kevin Shaffer ok?)
Now (let's leave Tucker at right guard, ok?) you'd have bookend tackles protecting both edges, each of which can block well upfield in space, and Ohr is a pretty decent drive-blocker as well.
On the Browns roster is a pretty good young right tackle to provide quality depth, who would have challenged to start there this season. He can also play left tackle, but needs work there. Ohr, on the other hand, is a left tackle who can also play right tackle. Now in addition to upgrading the blocking on the right side, you have provided quality long-term depth at left tackle too.
NOW, of you could also nab guard Duke Robinson in the second round, wow! (I love Ryan Tucker, but you need to think long-term. But ok I might be overboard with the offensive line).
But Laurenitis is a no-brainer, despite the fact that with Bell and Jackson and a more intelligent scheme, the defense is already strong at inside linebacker. The ideal situation is a rotation anyway so that they don't get worn down.
Williams could remain as the nickel linebacker, where he does a pretty good job, and be given the opportunity to compete at OLB by more intelligent coaches.
But even as low as the middle of the second round, Brian Cushing could still be around. 4-3 teams would be much less interested in him than 3-4 teams, so this would eliminate some potential suitors and help his slide.
Cushing could right away push Alex Hall and Wimbley.
Cushing was recruited and started out as an outside linebacker. He was then moved to stand-up defensive end in a type of 3-4 for one season, and he did a fine job against top competition. Last season, he returned to the more conventional outside linebacker spot.
Cushing does it all, including doing a good job in coverage, and his college experience makes him a natural fit for the new Browns defense.
We can still hope that Wimbley will finally learn some new moves, or that moving him around will help his pass-rush--or simply that Alex Hall continues his rapid growth and starts commanding more attention when he attacks the QB.
Ideally, you bring Cushing in and the other two kick too much butt for him to play a lot, but at the very least here is another well-schooled and capable guy competing...who won't let you down in coverage or against the run, either.
Then maybe even in the third is Robiskie, although his clock-times at the combine are likely to elevate his stock somewhat...(I hope he sprains and ankle or something).
This dude is an inch taller than Braylon Edwards and has good hands. He also runs crisp patterns and can burn (he's a track star). He's currently only 199 lbs., but this is partly because he did run track, and he'll grow to be bigger than almost all cornerbacks and a lot of free safeties.
He is currently (inexplicably) rated ninth in this bumper-crop of wide recievers, and is one of the reasons I'd strongly consider trading Edwards for the right price.
Robiskie, TWO big burners on the practice squad, and Jurevicious, who should return. (He doesn't need to be as fast as he was, or even to get open. Even if he's covered, he's open because he'll reach or muscle for it.)
And then Rucker--who isn't a wide reciever but is still here to do what K2 does.
Anyhow I know it's too early to take any of this seriously but I'm bored so there you go okbye.
Leading the quantity-list are seven offensive tackles and six cornerbacks. verily, bumper crops of these guys. Next, with five each, are the OLB's and wide recievers.
On the other side, the Quarterbacks, safeties, DE's and guards have only two each.
Teams are always looking for QB's, so the second quarterback should go well ahead of his ranked spot. The defensive ends should also get snatched up quickly and perhaps prematurely, and ditto the safeties.
The guards are a little different. Regardless of how good they are, they tend to slide--it's pretty uncommon for one to be taken in the first round at all.
There are three centers, and these guys tend to slide as well. So do middle linebackers, of which there are also three. there are three defensive tackles in the top fifty, and these guys should go pretty early too. Where's Butch Davis when you need him?
Four running backs, with three in the elite class. None of these are Adrian Peterson, and the first might not be taken until after the top five.
Where's all this leading?
Well, if I were in charge of the Browns, I would clean house. I know I could get a middle second-rounder and perhaps a bag o chips for Anderson, and that and more for Winslow, and I'd do that. I'd also see if I could get anywhere in this first round, or perhaps a second and a third, for Braylon Edwards.
I'd try to get a fourth for Motormouth Smith, and a sixth for Darnell Dinkens, too.
Now I would have the 5th overall pick, #5 in the second, then maybe #13 and #15 in the second, #5 in the third...and we'll be conservative and leave it at that, plus the high fourth rounder.
(I know compensitory picks etc. so maybe the numbers aren't exact big deal).
Thirty five of these top fifty players are rated with five stars, meaning that they have a really good chance of starting or at least playing a lot as rookies. Even the fiteen with four stars are very good players.
My scenario gives the Browns four picks in the top 50, and 5 in the top 75.
As it stands, before the Browns pick, the QB probably gets grabbed. One of the top two offensive tackles might or might not go up there, but certainly not both, with as many as there are available.
The top two cornerbacks are pick 'ems--you could take either of them and be happy. I don't think either will be taken in the top five.
The middle linebackers should remain...well, I'm getting bogged-down here. The thing is, what could I get for the fifth overall pick?
Well, probably not much. There's only the one quarterback.
But I'd still try. I mean, I could find myself sitting there staring at a bunch of players worth #5, and I have several needs.
One or both of the top two offensive tackles, either of which could immediately dominate on the right side, and down the road provide depth at left tackle. Both these guys could also play guard, as well.
Probably both of the elite cornerbacks (Listen: our starters ARE veterans, and coaches coach. We need more at cornerback, but it doesn't have to be a veteran, so shut up.)
Though not a (legitimate) NEED, both of the elite middle (inside) linebackers will remain, and be mighty tempting. Put these guys in a rotation with Jackson and Bell, and you've got a very strong and deep corps for years to come.
There are two passrushing defensive ends ranked up there. Could they play linebacker? I don't know, but I DO know that aUSC OLB not even ranked in the top fifty WAS a defensive end, and was overshadowed by Laurenitis.
Chris Wells is ranked second at his position and fifteenth overall. The Browns HAVE the 212-lb. Jerome Harrison behind Jamal Lewis, but I'd have to consider taking this guy. I mean. he's just a HAMMER, and at 6'1" looks like a good blacker and reciever, and should get even bigger/stronger than his current 238 lbs.
...but not at #5. The other MLB should go ahead of Laurenitis, and he maybe not in the top fifteen or twenty. the first wide reciever might not be taken in the top ten, and the third-best tackle in the top twenty. The first cornerback might slide below ten.
Both of the top defensive ends are undersized, and might be situational guys at first even in a 4-3. they might go after the top ten...etc.
My ideal DA trade would be the Lions. They would NOT cough up their first-round pick for him, but might surrender their second-rounder (and no bag o chips). This would take that QB off their radar, and make it more likely that he'd be there for somebody to trade up to #5 for (wish I could remember the order...ah! Ok the QB is gone anyway. Tough to trade down in this draft.
But that's ok! I got the top second-round pick for DA!
Ok but maybe I could trade the pick for a player...
...ok nevermind. But who would I take fifth overall?
Well first, the strategy: I now have #1, #5, and # 13 in the second round. In that area I could wait to grab three of these players:
ILB Laurenitis OSU
Eugene Monroe OT VA
Guard Duke Robinson OK (the best guard)
The best center
OLB Brian Cushing USC (started previous season as stand-up DE and did great)
et al.
And then, wide recievers are available late; notably Rodney Robiskiefield of OSU, who could even slide into the third round.
At #5 I'd have to look hard at Chris Wells, the top two cornerbacks, and the top tackle available.
But there's no (real) urgency at RB, I'd have a lot of cap-space to sign a really good vet cornerback (there are a bunch highly rated who will slide into the second round and be available--they're just small guys like we already have).
I guess I'd probably take the best offensive tackle. I mean, these guys don't grow on trees (ready to start), and the ripple effect on the offensive line would be immediate.
Micheal Ohr would fit into either a man or zone scheme well, especially at right tackle (OH I forgot! I got a high third or low second rounder for Kevin Shaffer ok?)
Now (let's leave Tucker at right guard, ok?) you'd have bookend tackles protecting both edges, each of which can block well upfield in space, and Ohr is a pretty decent drive-blocker as well.
On the Browns roster is a pretty good young right tackle to provide quality depth, who would have challenged to start there this season. He can also play left tackle, but needs work there. Ohr, on the other hand, is a left tackle who can also play right tackle. Now in addition to upgrading the blocking on the right side, you have provided quality long-term depth at left tackle too.
NOW, of you could also nab guard Duke Robinson in the second round, wow! (I love Ryan Tucker, but you need to think long-term. But ok I might be overboard with the offensive line).
But Laurenitis is a no-brainer, despite the fact that with Bell and Jackson and a more intelligent scheme, the defense is already strong at inside linebacker. The ideal situation is a rotation anyway so that they don't get worn down.
Williams could remain as the nickel linebacker, where he does a pretty good job, and be given the opportunity to compete at OLB by more intelligent coaches.
But even as low as the middle of the second round, Brian Cushing could still be around. 4-3 teams would be much less interested in him than 3-4 teams, so this would eliminate some potential suitors and help his slide.
Cushing could right away push Alex Hall and Wimbley.
Cushing was recruited and started out as an outside linebacker. He was then moved to stand-up defensive end in a type of 3-4 for one season, and he did a fine job against top competition. Last season, he returned to the more conventional outside linebacker spot.
Cushing does it all, including doing a good job in coverage, and his college experience makes him a natural fit for the new Browns defense.
We can still hope that Wimbley will finally learn some new moves, or that moving him around will help his pass-rush--or simply that Alex Hall continues his rapid growth and starts commanding more attention when he attacks the QB.
Ideally, you bring Cushing in and the other two kick too much butt for him to play a lot, but at the very least here is another well-schooled and capable guy competing...who won't let you down in coverage or against the run, either.
Then maybe even in the third is Robiskie, although his clock-times at the combine are likely to elevate his stock somewhat...(I hope he sprains and ankle or something).
This dude is an inch taller than Braylon Edwards and has good hands. He also runs crisp patterns and can burn (he's a track star). He's currently only 199 lbs., but this is partly because he did run track, and he'll grow to be bigger than almost all cornerbacks and a lot of free safeties.
He is currently (inexplicably) rated ninth in this bumper-crop of wide recievers, and is one of the reasons I'd strongly consider trading Edwards for the right price.
Robiskie, TWO big burners on the practice squad, and Jurevicious, who should return. (He doesn't need to be as fast as he was, or even to get open. Even if he's covered, he's open because he'll reach or muscle for it.)
And then Rucker--who isn't a wide reciever but is still here to do what K2 does.
Anyhow I know it's too early to take any of this seriously but I'm bored so there you go okbye.
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