Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Training Camp and Roster Perdictions

Shantee Orr: He is being spoken of as a special teamer, but he's more. While he won't start, he can rotate in at both outside and inside linebacker. Inside, his short stature is an advantage, and has much to do with both his quickness and ability to get off blocks.

Andra Davis: Could be traded.

If he isn't, we have too many linebackers. Jackson and Williams are faster and better in coverage. As we will see, Beau Bell can also cover, and in other respects is like Davis at his best. With Shantee Orr also inside at times--that's too many, and Davis is the oldest.

It's just business.

Antwan Peek, of he remains healthy for the first time in his carreer, is a beast. Ififif, he is a proven passrusher who is bigger and stronger than Wimbley. Willie McGinest is not the passrusher he once was, but has actually become pretty darn good against the run. He's very difficult to block, and anticipates well.

The top four defensive linemen are etched in stone, and two of these are nose tackles. Louis Leonard is actually a very talented player who can play on the nose or the end, and has some little NFL experience. He is due to emerge in this, his third season. His experience and versatility give him an edge over other contenders for the last two spots. Listen to me: This guy is a playa.

The Browns could carry eight linebackers. At this point those look like Jackson, Bell, Orr, Peek, Wimbley, Williams, Davis, and McGinest. Using the inactive list, it's possible that both Hall and Ortiz could make it sorta), but it would be better to turn Davis into a...Anthony Henry, or something. (And yes Ortiz is listed as a DE but he has no chance there. He's a linebacker or nothing).

I don't count out David McMillan. It's make-or-break time for him, though. He's got the pass-rush thing down, but I guess he's trying to master the regular linebacker stuff. He might or might not.

Rubin is a nose tackle. Don't expect him to be much of a defensive end. He's really going to have to prove something...although they'd probably try to sneak him onto the practice squad if he's unable to crack the top six yet.

Pittman and Purcells are bigger now, and strictly defensive ends. I have no idea what they will do. A major monkey wrench for them is one Brian Schaefering, and undrafted free agent who played nose tackle at Illinois. He's 6'4", 286 right now--and is obviously a strong player who uses leverage well.

Without the pads on, he showed great hand-use and moves as a passrusher from the DE slot. He could push the aforementioned duo aside and actually make the roster! (Oh I hear you, Yoda: "It's far too early to know--" Yeah yeah oh wise sage).

Schaefering was a sleeper, playing out-of-position at Illinois. As a nose tackle, he was double-teamed and had to deal with the run first. 286 is smallish for a 3-4 NFL defensive end, but as a nose tackle he had to be pretty damn strong, and have a good mastery of leverage.

True, there were no pads on, but much can still be learned from his performance. The blockers were still trying to get their hands on him and stay in his path, and he beat them. He showed surprising explosion and game-speed.

While this guy doesn't project to make the top six in a normal rotation (at this point), he could surprise everybody but the Coaches and me by making the final roster. This is because he MIGHT be able to play as a situational down passrusher.

The reasons are several: This defense will deploy a 4-5 lineman front on passing downs. Schaefering could provide an opportunity to rest one of the other guys. As a former nose tackle, he has no problem handling traffic inside, and if his job is to penetrate, you don't worry about him holding a gap or a point.

And then there's the fact that he's actually more of a 4-3 DE than the 3-4 version. No other defensive linmeman on the roster could shift to or line up outside the tackle (at least as well as a 4-3 DE). (3-4 DE's are normally hybrid tackles because they actually line up on the guard's outside shoulders, and are subject to leverage blocks and double-teams).

Have I lost you yet? Try and stay with me: Sportwriters like everything in neat consistant boxes, so they want the outside linebackers to always just become defensive ends outside two defensive linemen. This is a good base-set and is true on the most basic cookie-cutter 3-4 level.

But (trust me) the Browns would prefer not to use Shantee Orr in this way, whether he was a college DE or not. He's too short to overcome the tackle's reach advantage and get outside him. Wimbley and Peek--no problem, but if one is injured, there is an issue here. Alex Hall, if he makes the roster based on special teams and this specific role, could do it...

But every offense is different. Some will deploy two tight ends on third and long (including this offense). Some have lighter, athletic offensive linemen, and others big hogs. Some have scat-backs who can catch flares, run delayed draws...there are a lot of variables.

And third-down packages are designed specificly to defeat a conventional 3-4 passing alignment. Schaefering breaks the mold, and is a monkey-wrench. Even if he doesn't fill in situationally for one of the OLB's, he could penetrate from a conventional tackle position, and give one of those guys a break instead.

Just a thought--he IS still a dark-horse, and Hall/Ortiz effect this formula. There's always the practice squad for the losers, of they make it, and Schaefering should. And they'd like that, because he's 6'4" and could return next season at over 300 lbs.

On the offensive side, they will probably carry four tight ends and Vickers. This is because the offense is a base two-TE one, and because probably two of the tight ends can line up at fullback. Rucker is a "wing" TE like Winslow, although they want him to learn the ropes as a Heiden-type in-line conventional TE as well. Heiden lined up at fullback fairly often last season, and this offers a clue to Chud's plans. Rucker and other new canditates are all capable of filling this role, sooner or later.

Look at New England, which at times fields THREE tight ends.

Here, Chud adapted to his personnel, but this system is becoming entrenched. Both TE's are the possession-recievers and primary outlets. Every TE must be a reliable reciever. If Vickers goes down, at least two of them could line up at fullback. The defense is never sure where Heiden will go when Vickers isn't there.

This alignment can go deep or play smashmouth, and (as you will see) will show no clear tendancy for a defense to key on.

Jamal Lewis will catch more passes.

Rodney Harrisonfield will play more.

Travis Wilson will become what he was, when healthy, in college, and answer concerns about the third or fourth reciever. Rucker needs work. Not sure what they'll do there.

We don't have a huge depth problem at tackle, Chicken Little. Schaeffer can move to the left side and Tucker go back to the right. It's also ignorant to dis the depth simply because you haven't seen them.

More later.

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