"The last thing the Browns will do is sign a tight end."
Yeah, real deep thoughts, there. This is wrong on several levels. To begin with, Steve Heiden is getting very old, and these clowns seem to think he'll play into his 40s. Second, Kellen Winslow's knees will dramaticly shorten his carreer. His situation is being re-evaluated annually, by both the team and his doctors.
If these clowns were running the team, one of these two goes down and so does a whole bunch of the playbook, and they could enter 2009 with NOBODY at TE. And let's be accurate: Behind these two are adequate players who are good special teamers.
Second, attempt to comprehend the nature of this offense. It very often deploys two tight ends. If Chud had the people, they'd go with three more often. This team as it stands has Edwards, Stallworth, Jurevicous, and question marks at wide reciever. This is the three-wide set, and if one is injured, that part of the playbook is in doubt.
They do have a GOOD fullback, and the people to run specialized two-backs, but even here, Chud will sometimes use two tight ends and only one wide reciever. These are mainly short-yardage power sets for situational use. It's very effective because Winslow remains a major threat, Edwards is the single wide-out, Vickers can get downfield, and Chud WILL sometimes pass out of this set.
Scratch Winslow, and forget most of that.
The Browns need a young tight end to groom as a replacement for Winslow or, at least, Heiden. This guy may not be available in this draft, which is light on tight ends--but trust me Phil is trying to upgrade. Phil looks beyond THIS season, and wants to build a dynasty...not a shooting star.
Adam Caplan is obviously the only person who ever reads this. It has recently dawned on him that here is no critical need at inside backer.
Per Adam, the number one need is at cornerback, and #2 is outside linebacker. I don't have a big problem with this, but Adam is too vague. We have two viable starters and a nickel on the current roster. Another starter like Wright would be sweet, but the realistic goal for now is a fourth corner capable of playing in the nickel or dime/stepping in for an injured player (like Bodden was literally half the time, by the way.)
This need could well be addressed in this draft without trading up. Caplan cites three players, one of which could well slide into the fourth. The more reliable Steve Sobol is more optimistic. One might be available anywhere. One or more might even go undrafted.
Several guys have one knock on them: "ball skills". They cover and stop the run, but they don't get interceptions. I'll take that guy--we keep forgetting that the main thing is to prevent receptions--duh. And you can work on their hands. Besides, some of these guys played in man schemes. Zones are sneaky and set up picks. Dixon/Minnifield never got many picks, either.
Further, some of these guys weren't challenged. QB's avoided them. Oh yeah, they can pick up a corner without the fourth rounder or trading up. If they do either of those to get a cornerback, he won't be coming here to collect splinters for more than one season.
Everyone is talking about how Phil just can't wait to trade up. Baloney. He might, but not unless a STARTER gets in range. And it's not likely.
In this draft are SEVERAL 3-4 outside backers (not to mention inside backers) who should slide to the fourth and maybe even fifth rounds.
The reasons are myriad. The one guy who only played DE for two years, at Toledo--wasn't invited to the combine. Only he's just merely 6'5" 257 4.57 40 and beat them all in the three-cone drill and short shuttle...AND benched 220 more often than most of the offensive linemen.
Another guy...might be a trade-up candidate: Faster than all of them, super-productive with lots of TFL's, inside or outside--only he'd max out at about 245 and is only 6 feet tall. Big program, big post-season--he might well go in the third, or even higher, but there's a chance. But there are at least four more who could go in the fourth or fifth.
Hell, I can even predict, here and now, that whether it's Antwan Peek or not, Wimbley WILL have help from the other side this season. This draft is full of DE's who project well, and OLB's who are ready to go.
In re that, on third and long, the Browns will go to a 4-3 with McGinest, one of the two second-year passrushing DE's, or McMillan at DE, Rogers and Sith inside, and Williams at the other DE spot. That's a lot of penetration, and it'll be hard to focus on Wimbley. AND, third and longs should happen more often.
A lot of the reasons for Wimbley's decline last season were hidden in the stats. Because offenses so often got decent yardage on first and second downs, the defense couldn't afford to be too aggressive with their front.
Also, Wimbley has exceeded expectations in coverage and mirroring--proving to be a REAL linebacker. He wasn't SENT as often as he was in his rookie season, when he was trasitioning from DE. Once it was clear that offenses had learned how to stop him (and could, because of little pressure from the other side), they backed him off, and he made a lot of tackles instead.
Don't get me wrong: Wimbley is wasted being used this way, and they know it. But now that Rogers and Williams are here, he'll be a-comin a-lot. WHEN Phil finds or adds his bookend--that's IT, man! Stoolers eat your hearts out!!
YOU STAND CORRECTED
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