The Big Pitcher

The sum of the offseason is the draft and free agency. The Browns needs, in order, were (in reality) DL, OLB (in view of Peek's health), CB DEPTH, more WR's (since Wilson isn't acting like one), a young TE to augment and eventually replace the human MASH unit and Gramps Heiden, and--more a want than a need--ILB. (Remember I said in reality).

Savage got two stud defensive linemen who are still relatively young and healthy; indeed who have UPSIDE, right out of the gate. Then he added Daunte Stallworth, who is a very capable (and dangerous) #2 when healthy.

In this draft, he nailed down an underrated linebacker. Beau Bell's clock times have little to do with his playing speed. He is most likely here to play inside, because he's nice and short and can get off blocks. He can stop a much bigger man in his tracks and then run around or away from him. His instincts are great.

For all this, he's been picked on for being top-heavy and "stiff" in coverage. He just gets lucky with all the interceptions and deflections! What the hell, pump his ass and legs up--blow him up to 255 see if I care!

Phil said "depth". Yeah ok. He'll work into the rotation quickly. None of the other guys can be the force player on the strong side; who can take on a pulling guard.

And this guy is a body-rocker. He SLAMS people. Diagonosing quickly, he attacks at full speed and meets things in the backfield. He doesn't WANT to play outside, he likes it "in there". AndrA Davis has seen his best days, Jackson is fine on the weak side, and Williams has to play.

I believe that Williams will now be worked outside, and become something like a utility guy. Ashante Orr was indeed a college DE, but has played all linebacker positions. As an outside passrusher, he's just "ok", and it's quite possible that he'll be another utility guy. Orr is basicly a journeyman...but if he makes Davis look bad, well...

Williams is now the fastest of the linebackers, has learned at light-speed, and performed admirably. Even coming out of college, people weren't certain where he should play. He fell inside here due to the personnel we had. Now, the inside is pretty stacked, and the need remains for a passrushing outside backer to offset Wimbley, and he might be it.

A conventional 3-4 would place Williams on the weak side and Wimbley strong, but of course they all move people all over the place. Let's see what happens--if Peek gets healthy and Williams proves he has 8-plus sack potential. This is a ripple effect thing: Williams is a complete linebacker who can intercept the run as well as any, so--if his speed can translate into QB pressures as well, you have a much-upgraded overall defense.

Rubin is not here for the practice squad. He was cocked in the center in college, and that's what nose tackles do. He's quick and has some range, in addition to being stronger than dirt. While he isn't polished and has much to learn, he can be worked into the rotation from day one. To be sure, the top four are established. Three young players (two drafted DE's and a bigger FA DL) are already here, and will have something to say about this.

Four players will now be competing for two positions BEHIND three starters and a swing-man, and they all have much upside. It can't get better than this. The 3-4 will now work as it was designed to work against the run. The line won't wear down, will command double-teams, and will make some tackles and QB pressures of it's own. The linebackers will slice in and make plays.

Alex Hall will probably go on the practice squad and get his shot in '09 as Phil said. He's not really such a gamble, as he has the speed, frame, and stats to become a dominating outside passrushing linebacker. He will go into the nursery where he will learn dirty tricks and get pumped up. He will re-appear next season at at least 250 lbs., and much stronger.

It is PROBABLE that Phil Frankestein will have created a monster. This is not David McMillan, who was a good passrushing DE but seems not to be a very good linebacker (so far). Hall is more athletic, and was astronomicly more productive. All those sacks and 52 tackles-for-losses from a DE position told Phil a lot about this guy, Division II or not.

CB was not addressed, but I repeat that Davin Holly IS an experienced veteran, as if a veteran rather than a young, talented player is critical at all. More second and third and shorts plus an upgraded pass-rush will make this secondary look a lot better. Aside from Brandon McDonald, Holly, and Wright, we have a reserve safety who can play nickel and gets interceptions. We DO need more depth, and could use another Wright--don't get me wrong---but you can't always fix everything all at once, even if you're Phil Savage.

Quit bitching.

Now, this Rucker--202 receptions, over 10 yards per, are you kidding me?!? This guy will contribute out of the gate! He's not as fast as Wnslow WAS, but could well grow into what Wnslow is.

No, he never blocked anybody in-line and was sort of a glorified wide reciever. But I like how he talks: "I can block. I'll prove it."

Not that important for now. In this offense, Heiden is the in-line blocker. The wing TE (Winslow) is a decoy and blocks in space, same as what this kid did in college. Chud right now is concocting a bunch of insideously diabolical groupings to put him and Winslow on the field at the same time (with Edwards--at least--and then Harrison or Stallworth).

That IS a nightmare to defend. Do they go to a nickel with a six-man front? We know who covers Stallworth, but now can they rotate coverage to Edwards--and what of they do? Winslow and Rucker are both too tall for safeties and too quick for linebackers--and how can you stack up against Lewis with TWO of those guys slanting in behind you, huh?

DA (and BQ) are already drooling.

Hubbard IS a bit of a gamble. We've seen what Wilson has turned into, and Hubbard already has a rep for making stupid drops. He runs sloppy patterns too.

But he went to college on a track scholarship, and only came to football later. He was also injured as a senior, and missed five games worth of stats. He has--in streaks--been reliable as hell, and made circus catches. Explosive as hell--a long-jump champ and stuff, who routinely clocks in the little 4.4's. How could Phil refuse that dice-roll?

This guy can probably contribute on special teams immediately. He's a willing blocker (a big plus here) and you can't teach size or speed.

This is a factor: Wilson enters his third season, and Phil said he wouldn't draft anybody who wasn't better than what he had. This guy is here to knock Wilson off the roster, and Wilson has to know it.

What is it, with drops? Well, with these guys who have SOMETIMES made outstanding catches, it's always mental, which is very correctable.

But the issue with Wilson is deeper: Like Harrison (apparantly), he practices poorly. Not just drops, but running sloppy and incorrect patterns. I wouldn't judge this guy like Wilson. All he has to do is come in with the right attitude and work hard. If he does, we have a winner.

The draft gurus think he can be a number three and work up to number two. Maybe they're right, but that's an ignorant statement. He's big, very fast, and explosive. He has it ALL--so why is the sky not the limit?

So, Phil has addressed everything except cornerback.

Not bad.

Corrections and Minutia. And Minute Corrections. And Stuff.

"The last thing the Browns will do is sign a tight end."

Yeah, real deep thoughts, there. This is wrong on several levels. To begin with, Steve Heiden is getting very old, and these clowns seem to think he'll play into his 40s. Second, Kellen Winslow's knees will dramaticly shorten his carreer. His situation is being re-evaluated annually, by both the team and his doctors.

If these clowns were running the team, one of these two goes down and so does a whole bunch of the playbook, and they could enter 2009 with NOBODY at TE. And let's be accurate: Behind these two are adequate players who are good special teamers.

Second, attempt to comprehend the nature of this offense. It very often deploys two tight ends. If Chud had the people, they'd go with three more often. This team as it stands has Edwards, Stallworth, Jurevicous, and question marks at wide reciever. This is the three-wide set, and if one is injured, that part of the playbook is in doubt.

They do have a GOOD fullback, and the people to run specialized two-backs, but even here, Chud will sometimes use two tight ends and only one wide reciever. These are mainly short-yardage power sets for situational use. It's very effective because Winslow remains a major threat, Edwards is the single wide-out, Vickers can get downfield, and Chud WILL sometimes pass out of this set.

Scratch Winslow, and forget most of that.

The Browns need a young tight end to groom as a replacement for Winslow or, at least, Heiden. This guy may not be available in this draft, which is light on tight ends--but trust me Phil is trying to upgrade. Phil looks beyond THIS season, and wants to build a dynasty...not a shooting star.

Adam Caplan is obviously the only person who ever reads this. It has recently dawned on him that here is no critical need at inside backer.

Per Adam, the number one need is at cornerback, and #2 is outside linebacker. I don't have a big problem with this, but Adam is too vague. We have two viable starters and a nickel on the current roster. Another starter like Wright would be sweet, but the realistic goal for now is a fourth corner capable of playing in the nickel or dime/stepping in for an injured player (like Bodden was literally half the time, by the way.)

This need could well be addressed in this draft without trading up. Caplan cites three players, one of which could well slide into the fourth. The more reliable Steve Sobol is more optimistic. One might be available anywhere. One or more might even go undrafted.

Several guys have one knock on them: "ball skills". They cover and stop the run, but they don't get interceptions. I'll take that guy--we keep forgetting that the main thing is to prevent receptions--duh. And you can work on their hands. Besides, some of these guys played in man schemes. Zones are sneaky and set up picks. Dixon/Minnifield never got many picks, either.

Further, some of these guys weren't challenged. QB's avoided them. Oh yeah, they can pick up a corner without the fourth rounder or trading up. If they do either of those to get a cornerback, he won't be coming here to collect splinters for more than one season.

Everyone is talking about how Phil just can't wait to trade up. Baloney. He might, but not unless a STARTER gets in range. And it's not likely.

In this draft are SEVERAL 3-4 outside backers (not to mention inside backers) who should slide to the fourth and maybe even fifth rounds.

The reasons are myriad. The one guy who only played DE for two years, at Toledo--wasn't invited to the combine. Only he's just merely 6'5" 257 4.57 40 and beat them all in the three-cone drill and short shuttle...AND benched 220 more often than most of the offensive linemen.

Another guy...might be a trade-up candidate: Faster than all of them, super-productive with lots of TFL's, inside or outside--only he'd max out at about 245 and is only 6 feet tall. Big program, big post-season--he might well go in the third, or even higher, but there's a chance. But there are at least four more who could go in the fourth or fifth.

Hell, I can even predict, here and now, that whether it's Antwan Peek or not, Wimbley WILL have help from the other side this season. This draft is full of DE's who project well, and OLB's who are ready to go.

In re that, on third and long, the Browns will go to a 4-3 with McGinest, one of the two second-year passrushing DE's, or McMillan at DE, Rogers and Sith inside, and Williams at the other DE spot. That's a lot of penetration, and it'll be hard to focus on Wimbley. AND, third and longs should happen more often.

A lot of the reasons for Wimbley's decline last season were hidden in the stats. Because offenses so often got decent yardage on first and second downs, the defense couldn't afford to be too aggressive with their front.

Also, Wimbley has exceeded expectations in coverage and mirroring--proving to be a REAL linebacker. He wasn't SENT as often as he was in his rookie season, when he was trasitioning from DE. Once it was clear that offenses had learned how to stop him (and could, because of little pressure from the other side), they backed him off, and he made a lot of tackles instead.

Don't get me wrong: Wimbley is wasted being used this way, and they know it. But now that Rogers and Williams are here, he'll be a-comin a-lot. WHEN Phil finds or adds his bookend--that's IT, man! Stoolers eat your hearts out!!

YOU STAND CORRECTED

Stop the Inanity!

I'm up to my eyeballs with dumb assumptions and reads on the current state of the Browns and have to correct some small portion of it.

1: "The Browns need a big inside linebacker who can take on guards."

A well-manned and executed 3-4 2-gap defense is designed to keep the offensive linemen off the linebackers. DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?

The nose tackle forces one of the guards to help the center. The ends set up just outside both guards' shoulders (more often than not) to force engagement. One guard has to help with the nose, so the tackle on that side has to try to handle the end on that side, and the other guard has to take on the other end. Even if this can be done without a double-team, this leaves just one offensive tackle with a lot of space to lumber through at a steep angle to try to block an ILB.

Big ILB's are always nice to have, if there isn't a trade-off depriving them of sideline-to-sideline range or the ability to blitze and drop into coverage.

The 3-4 defensive line trades the speed of passrushing DE's for the bulk and power of hybrid DT's and a giant single nose tackle. That speed is...are you listening? That reduced speed is, by design, compensated for by the inside linebackers!!!

The Browns did sign Shante Orr, who will be tried inside as well as outside and is a 6" ball of muscles. It might work, or not. Could be a rotation including Leon Williams and Jackson (with Davis a backup or off the team--no offense, but he was never fast and is slower than ever now).

Williams could be moved outside, as he has at least the speed to rush from the edge, and the athleticism to cover well...or could be Orr...I dunno...

What I DO know is that a bigger ILB WHO CAN RUN is a low priority. Because the Browns can't draft until the fourth round and this position is always deep, they might take an ILB, but it won't be because this is a position of "need".

The reason that offenses were able to run over this defense was the defensive LINE, do you hear me? Jackson and co. should never have been blocked, except perhaps by a fullback or a TE out of motion. Savage has acquired a (hopefully) premier nose tackle and a top-flight DE, and along with the Smiths, these guys WILL command consistant double-teams so that this 3-4 can works AS IT WAS INTENDED TO WORK.

The ILB's diagnose quickly and attack, unblocked, while the D-linemen fight to shed blocks and get a piece. The ILB's are, first and foremost, quick and fast so that you can't run around them, and they meet you in your backfield if you go inside. The cover-two scheme has the safeties coming up immediately to support.

I do need to stipulate: Poor tackling was also part of it. Many times a they got their hands on the RB, and he broke loose. Hell, MOST of the time they got any real yardage! That has to be fixed. Maybe Mel Tucker won't tolerate it. None of US would...

2: "The Browns need for an edge-rusher to take pressure off Wimbley is critical"

This is distorted in numerous ways. It is true that for this defense to be 100% effective, you need a serious edge-threat on both sides. Most defenses can scheme to stop the single threat coming from one side.

But A): Antoine Peek, when HEALTHY, IS that player. This statement ass umes that Peek will never be healthy again, or will always be the guy he was last season when playing hurt. That's just plain stupid.

B): The two defensive linemen just signed had seven sacks each from defensive tackle positions. They can penetrate and shed blocks, even as 2-gappers. If a tackle goes wide to ride Wimbley around the back of the pocket, he's leaving a guard one-on-one with a DE. A guard can't rotate out to pick him up without likewise abandoning one of these guys. If they try sliding, these guys will cross their faces and get in behind them.

Also, every player on this defense can and will blitze.

It's pretty optimistic to think that Shante Orr can be Wimbley's bookend, but that's not the case with Peek. And then, why am I the only one who seems to remember that Leon Williams can play outside and blitze? I mean, ideally you want a bigger guy than him for the role, as HE needs to defeat pass-blocks, but many very good 3-4's have used the average-sized, fast guys successfully.

On and off, NE and Pitt both have deployed one converted DE opposite one true linebacker and sacked the living hell out of people.

But of course, I do want perfection, which is why in previous blogs I have pointed out potential OLB sleepers for the 4th or 5th round.

3;) "The Browns need a veteran cornerback to start opposite Wright."

WHY?

As it stands, the starter will be McDonald or Holly. Holly IS now a seasoned vet...as if that matters more than a little, and McDonald did a surprisingly good job last season. The loser of that training camp battle will be the nickel CB.

The Browns need DEPTH at cornerback, behind the top three.

An improved pass-rush and more third-and-longs will vastly improve this secondary's "performance".

4:) "The Browns lack depth at safety".

Wel,l they got Baxter returning. Baxter has no doubt lost some mobility and it's doubtful that he can return as a cornerback, but his odds of returning as a good cover-two safety are better than even. He can handle big backs and TE's in coverage, can stiil run verticly, and has always been very effective against the run.

Then the guy we got from Detroit...or someplace...is a long-time starter who's not washed-up yet. He's more of a free safety, and doesn't fit the scheme that well, but can definitely cover and make interceptions.

And by the way, both he and Baxter can be used as dime backs vs. some teams, whose 4th reciever is a big possession guy.

But they should still draft that sleeper CB/S hybrid with the size and blistering speed in the 6th or 7th. There's some depth!

Now: YOU STAND CORRECTED.

OLB SLEEPER!!!

Marcus Howard, 6', 231, 27 benches, 34" vertical, Georgia is liste as TWELTH among the defensive ENDS. He is routinely clocked at at around 4.43. He is projected to go below the fourth round because of his size and only 2 years at DE. His combine 40 was faster than that of any of the linebackers, (not to mention than many of the cornerbacks and wide recievers).

At the Hula Bowl, Haward played only three snaps. He got one sack as an OLB, and another as a DE. He was the Sugar Bowl MVP--he delivers in big games.

10.5 sacks and 12 tackles-for-loss.

DAMMIT I just read that he's rising fast and might go in the third dammit. Well, a lot of people are dumbasses so he might still be there as of the Borwns pick in the 4th, or at least in range.

I'm hoping that dumbasses will "deduct points" from him based on his height, which gives him LEVERAGE. (I mentioned 27 benches at 225, right?) And then, there's his weight, which is a legit concern. 231 is pretty light for a 3-4 OLB, and with his frame, he hasn't got a whole lot of room to get bigger. His upside might be only around 240.

He might also lose points for pulling his quadriceps and missing some of the combine drills. I see nothing on his short shuttle and 3-cone--but those who saw him play don't care--he's showed the quickness and mobility to play OLB.

In my previous post, I told Phil about that Trevor guy, who physicly actually projects better than Howard as an OLB. But Howard played at a higher level of competition, came through big in big games, and topped his overall production.

The thing with Howard is versatility. He also has the measurables to play ILB here--though it seems I'm the only one who's seen it.

Everybody keeps talking about big bodies who can throw guards around like rag dolls. At least Pat Kirwin was sane enough to point out that with the new defensive line, offenses will have trouble getting to the linebackers. DDUUUUHHHHH. I mean...DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

And there's even an axiom in football: "The low man wins." If you get under the other guy's pads, he can't move you. All he can do is try to fall on you like a building, or make you stay where you are so you can't tackle anybody. (That's what they mean by "engulfed")

Some short guys can beat that. They can escape engulfment. It helps if you're very strong and have quick hands. But anyway, the obsession with hugeness at ILB is irrational and misguided. Trevor could be a sleeper OLB and Howard can play anywhere. One or both will be there in the 4th round.

Oh yeah. Very deep draft in tweeners. Phil will get somebody good in the 4th. You'll see.