So far, my super-easy and obvious guesstimates about Terrell Pryor are bearing out, according to Mary Kay Cabbot.
This was easy because it was just too obvious. One article mentions "in shorts" as a backhanded way of minimizing this, but whoever wrote that doesn't get it.
He is running good patterns and not dropping balls. That is what matters.
When the pads go on and there's more contact, Terrell won't become slower, shorter, or weaker. He will still be able to swat and bump little cornerbacks aside, outrun them, out-reach them, and wall them off.
Al Saunders is the perfect guy to be all over this guy, but you can't coach big or fast. When the pads go on, his physical advantages will show up more.
PRYOR has benefited from Hue Jackson splitting practices in two to get twice as many players reps. He can do that, at least on offense, because he has not only Saunders, but Pep Hamilton helping out. And it says something that Saunders is working with Pryor.
These coaches don't seem to have read what everybody else has written about Terrell Pryor the receiver. I haven't yet heard Hue Jackson telling us about how far away he is from mastering the abstract complexities of running and catching.
I'll tell you right now: When the pads go on, he'll shine brighter. He isn't just a gimmicky trick play guy. He's competing to start outside, and he and Corey Coleman are tied for the lead there.
Still rolling your eyes and laughing? Just don't say you knew it all along when he starts in game one.
Joe Haden will help. Joe will actually coach him from a cornerback's perspective. Haden is like that. He'll go out of his way to help anybody.
Speaking of Haden, he says Gilbert's attitude is better. Haden says he has a clean slate and a third chance here, and knows it.
Per Joe, Gilbert is busting his butt.
I can't make any optimistic predictions about this guy like I have with Pryor, but this is encouraging.
In an "Ask Mary Kay", one guy asked if using zone coverage would help him, and Mary Kay said it might.
Wrong. Zone is more complex than man. Man is about physicality, reflexes, and raw athleticism. This is what gives Gilbert his best chance.
Zone would help Desir, though!
Back to receiver: I'm not dissing Payton or Higgins in projecting Pryor as a starter. These two are no doubt more experienced and advanced than Pryor. It's just that he's a deep threat with a bigger catch radius.
It's beginning to dawn on Mary Kay and others that McCown might be more valuable as a mentor and actual quarterback than as another seventh round draft pick.
I never understood why everybody expects the Browns to get rid of this guy (for less than a fourth round pick).
Having him around is like having an extra quarterback coach.
Based on what I read about RG3's taking the Shanahans to school (white board and all), I can tell you, he was extremely arrogant.
I have a lot of stuff in my own life I wish I could take back. In his place (having accomplished what he had at that point, and at that age), I might even have pulled something like that (and regretted it ever since).
I hope that's the case. I hope he learned humility. Because, with Dan Snyder backing him up, he got his way. Shanahan went from an RG3 offense to a Kirk Cousins offense. And Kirk Cousins is better than he is in that scheme.
I believe part of this was racial, not on the Shanahan's part, but on RG3's part:
He may well have felt that all he was getting credit for was running around. That was the old excuse for no black quarterbacks: They're not smart enough.
Warren Moon came and went, and people still whispered that bullshit.
RG3 took flak early on for saying he didn't accept that label ("black quarterback"), so you know he got pressure from that side of it.
I know what people were saying to him. I know, for sure, that this is part of what drove him to demand that Shanahan install a pro style offense and put him in the pocket.
Hue Jackson (you might notice this: He's black too) is the perfect guy to salvage RG3. With the Shanahans, RG3 might have felt that they were prejudiced. He can't feel that way with Hue.
I just hope he's willing to listen to Josh McCown, as well. Humility can be hard.
After reading up some more on that whole thing, including what a couple of his defensive teammates said, he did fail in the pocket overall.
But Hue Jackson will mix scheme with coaching, and produce the best overall offense he can.
Friday, May 20, 2016
Monday, May 16, 2016
Cleveland Browns Regressed?
John Clayton listed the Cleveland Browns among the five NFL teams which have regressed in 2016 (thanks Mike Bode WFNY).
At first glance, he's right. That's the problem with first glances.
John says there's no way the new talent can offset the free agents they lost.
That's got to be true on the offensive line. John could have added that the current starters aren't familiar with the new starters at their positions, and there's a chemistry issue here.
But Clayton was making a general statement. That's the problem with general statements.
First, like most pundits, he's writing RG3 off as a bridge quarterback. That's a huge assumption. So far, Josh McCown is sticking around, and that means that quarterback may have been upgraded.
To say that the four wide receivers drafted don't offset the loss of Travis Benjamin would be idiotic. Happily, Clayton would never have said this. But he implied it by omission.
Wide receiver has been unmistakably upgraded. Depth at tight end was upgraded. Defensive line and outside linebacker has been upgraded.
Gipson, when healthy, is a big play guy. He shouldn't have been playing in the box last season (wtf?). But he does get hurt too much. Donte Whitner was fading.
Campbell is massively underrated, and a free agent and drafted safety were added. While Gipson is a special player, the safety position in general hasn't taken a step back at all.
Karlos Dansby was amazing, but two free agents and two draft picks will indeed offset his loss. None of the new players are likely to match his total package, but collectively, inside linebacker will be better; notably in the pass rush and vs the run.
Clayton, like most pundits, is star-struck. I believe he'd argue with my safety and inside linebacker statements:
"You can't replace playmakers like Dansby and Gipson by committee".
Yes, you can. When one will probably miss four games, and father time will take a chunk off the other. When Campbell might be as good or even better. When two of the new linebackers make plays in the opposing backfield, yes you can.
Like most pundits, Clayton also assumes a lot. For decades, it's been safe to assume the worst about the Cleveland Browns. It's become a habit.
The RG3 assumption isn't dumb, considering his irrefutable step back from his rookie season. I just think it's wrong, and explained why in my preceding post.
The assumption that the replacements for Mack and Schwartz won't be as good, or even that no new ILB can do everything the ageless Dansby did, are common sense.
But Whitner? Benjamin vs Coleman?
I expected a step back myself, until after the draft. The worst an objective analyst can see here now is a 3-13 team that can win more than three games this season.
At first glance, he's right. That's the problem with first glances.
John says there's no way the new talent can offset the free agents they lost.
That's got to be true on the offensive line. John could have added that the current starters aren't familiar with the new starters at their positions, and there's a chemistry issue here.
But Clayton was making a general statement. That's the problem with general statements.
First, like most pundits, he's writing RG3 off as a bridge quarterback. That's a huge assumption. So far, Josh McCown is sticking around, and that means that quarterback may have been upgraded.
To say that the four wide receivers drafted don't offset the loss of Travis Benjamin would be idiotic. Happily, Clayton would never have said this. But he implied it by omission.
Wide receiver has been unmistakably upgraded. Depth at tight end was upgraded. Defensive line and outside linebacker has been upgraded.
Gipson, when healthy, is a big play guy. He shouldn't have been playing in the box last season (wtf?). But he does get hurt too much. Donte Whitner was fading.
Campbell is massively underrated, and a free agent and drafted safety were added. While Gipson is a special player, the safety position in general hasn't taken a step back at all.
Karlos Dansby was amazing, but two free agents and two draft picks will indeed offset his loss. None of the new players are likely to match his total package, but collectively, inside linebacker will be better; notably in the pass rush and vs the run.
Clayton, like most pundits, is star-struck. I believe he'd argue with my safety and inside linebacker statements:
"You can't replace playmakers like Dansby and Gipson by committee".
Yes, you can. When one will probably miss four games, and father time will take a chunk off the other. When Campbell might be as good or even better. When two of the new linebackers make plays in the opposing backfield, yes you can.
Like most pundits, Clayton also assumes a lot. For decades, it's been safe to assume the worst about the Cleveland Browns. It's become a habit.
The RG3 assumption isn't dumb, considering his irrefutable step back from his rookie season. I just think it's wrong, and explained why in my preceding post.
The assumption that the replacements for Mack and Schwartz won't be as good, or even that no new ILB can do everything the ageless Dansby did, are common sense.
But Whitner? Benjamin vs Coleman?
I expected a step back myself, until after the draft. The worst an objective analyst can see here now is a 3-13 team that can win more than three games this season.
Sunday, May 15, 2016
RG3, Hue Jackson, and the New Browns
A few years ago, two dumb GMs engaged in a bidding war for...Robert Griffin III. Mike Holmgren lost.
I was about to say "fortunately", given the preposterous price Washington paid, but actually the Browns didn't accomplish much with the draft picks they saved.
By the way, Haslam should have fired Holmgren right there, for nearly flushing the team down the toilet.
Don't get me wrong. I wanted RG3 badly too. So did everybody else. Some even thought he was better than Andrew Luck.
He was different. He was a dual threat with blistering speed, but also threw with deadly accuracy and perfect touch, as deep as you want.
And look what the guy did as a rookie in Washington. For a minute there, those who thought RG3 was better than Luck looked pretty smart.
Then the wheels came off, literally. He was great, right up until his injury.
Then the bonehead charges back onto the field before he should have (and Shanahan LET him) and immediately got maimed again.
Now, per Mike Shanahan himself, this is what happened next. He and RG3 clashed over the scheme. A lot of bad reporters got this backwards:
Shanahan wanted to gradually phase in more West Coast and conventional offense. Griffin wanted it all at once.
Shanahan said he wasn't ready to be an all-in pocket passer yet. Griffin disagreed. Griffin got his way again.
It's been portrayed as a disaster, which is stupid. RG3 was a victim of his own rookie success. He didn't dominate as he had before, so his average and above performance in the pocket was treated as an abject failure. It wasn't.
Shanahan said after Cleveland signed him that he still believes that Griffin should not be a pocket passer.
As Mike Gruden seems to think as well, that's simply not what Griffin does best.
But every quarterback has to be able to play from the pocket sometimes. It's good that Griffin got that experience, especially in Shanahan and Gruden's schemes.
Now, Hue Jackson is here. It's a foregone conclusion that he will let RG3 do what he does best. And what a healthy RG3 does best is what he did as a rookie.
If Griffin hadn't been here, do you think they would have passed on Wentz? I'm not sure, but doubt it. RG3 is a risk, certainly. But Hue saw what he did. He knows he can do it again.
Instead of the top quarterback, they traded down and piled up draft picks.
The first player selected in the first round was Corey Coleman, a BAYLOR wide receiver. Three more receivers and a tight end converting from wide receiver. Two offensive linemen.
Hue will spew. But if Griffin isn't the game one starter, it will be his fault. Cody Kessler may have a bright future. Josh McCown might even be slightly better, but is old and hurt too much. But Griffin has all the talent. He was drafted second overall for reasons.
RG3 redux will be better than he was before. He will slide, run out of bounds, and throw the ball away. He will be able to function in the pocket, but won't have to live there.
While he still looks too lean, he appears a little bigger and stronger.
I think the Browns long-awaited franchise quarterback might already be here.
I was about to say "fortunately", given the preposterous price Washington paid, but actually the Browns didn't accomplish much with the draft picks they saved.
By the way, Haslam should have fired Holmgren right there, for nearly flushing the team down the toilet.
Don't get me wrong. I wanted RG3 badly too. So did everybody else. Some even thought he was better than Andrew Luck.
He was different. He was a dual threat with blistering speed, but also threw with deadly accuracy and perfect touch, as deep as you want.
And look what the guy did as a rookie in Washington. For a minute there, those who thought RG3 was better than Luck looked pretty smart.
Then the wheels came off, literally. He was great, right up until his injury.
Then the bonehead charges back onto the field before he should have (and Shanahan LET him) and immediately got maimed again.
Now, per Mike Shanahan himself, this is what happened next. He and RG3 clashed over the scheme. A lot of bad reporters got this backwards:
Shanahan wanted to gradually phase in more West Coast and conventional offense. Griffin wanted it all at once.
Shanahan said he wasn't ready to be an all-in pocket passer yet. Griffin disagreed. Griffin got his way again.
It's been portrayed as a disaster, which is stupid. RG3 was a victim of his own rookie success. He didn't dominate as he had before, so his average and above performance in the pocket was treated as an abject failure. It wasn't.
Shanahan said after Cleveland signed him that he still believes that Griffin should not be a pocket passer.
As Mike Gruden seems to think as well, that's simply not what Griffin does best.
But every quarterback has to be able to play from the pocket sometimes. It's good that Griffin got that experience, especially in Shanahan and Gruden's schemes.
Now, Hue Jackson is here. It's a foregone conclusion that he will let RG3 do what he does best. And what a healthy RG3 does best is what he did as a rookie.
If Griffin hadn't been here, do you think they would have passed on Wentz? I'm not sure, but doubt it. RG3 is a risk, certainly. But Hue saw what he did. He knows he can do it again.
Instead of the top quarterback, they traded down and piled up draft picks.
The first player selected in the first round was Corey Coleman, a BAYLOR wide receiver. Three more receivers and a tight end converting from wide receiver. Two offensive linemen.
Hue will spew. But if Griffin isn't the game one starter, it will be his fault. Cody Kessler may have a bright future. Josh McCown might even be slightly better, but is old and hurt too much. But Griffin has all the talent. He was drafted second overall for reasons.
RG3 redux will be better than he was before. He will slide, run out of bounds, and throw the ball away. He will be able to function in the pocket, but won't have to live there.
While he still looks too lean, he appears a little bigger and stronger.
I think the Browns long-awaited franchise quarterback might already be here.
Saturday, May 14, 2016
Ray O Sunshine Guest Commentary
Hey thanks for the space! I've been checking out the "Believeland" shows and hearing what the rookies are saying. It sounds terrific.
Hue Jackson AND his experienced veteran assistant coaches are all highly regarded by people who actually know what they're talking about.
History here doesn't matter. Hue isn't Mike or Rob, you see? I'm not sure he ever even met them. I suppose, just in case, he should stick to bottled water and carry a rabbit's foot, though.
The guy who normally writes here talks about the Steelers like they're the guys from the eighties or something.
Well, during the eighties the Browns went toe-to-toe with that dynasty. Yes, they lost more than they won, but they gave the Steelers hell.
Well okay, maybe the Steelers are just too loaded and experienced this season, but there's always the wild card.
They should kill the Ravens twice. That team is full of holes. When did Joe Flacco become Tom Brady? I must have missed something. I mean he's pretty good, but the guys on NFL Radio must have altars to him and the Wiz in their basements or something.
The Bengals? Ok yeah they're tough, but they lost their second AND third receivers, and (especially) Hue Jackson.
I think the Browns can compete with them in 2016. Shut up Wile E you said I could write whatever I want!
Anyway you're the guy writing about that Baylor with Pryor and Coleman thing. Don't you believe your own words?
Experience schmegsperience! Robert Griffin III IS a veteran. So is the whole offensive line except for Shon Coleman. So are the running backs and Barnidge and...well those guys!
I see RG3 throwing bombs to Coleman and Pryor the Bengals can't stop, and two or three guys all up in Dalton's grill every single down.
That offense is still too talented not to be really good this coming season, but it was Hue Jackson who got them into the top five. They didn't just lose that. Their division rival GAINED it!
I'm not even as awed and intimidated by the Steelers as Wile E is. Johnny Manziel threw for 370 yards on them. I think McCown strafed them too. The Browns could luck out and steal one from them too!
The AFC North is now THE toughest division in football, with the Ravens as the weakest team. That's right the Ravens, NOT the more talented at nearly every position Browns.
Cam Erving was a CONSENSUS first round draft pick, and called by some guys the best offensive lineman in his draft as a center. He hasn't played center yet. He's had an off season to lick his wounds and fix what needed fixing. Stop fretting about center! Anyway a MATTHEWS is here for depth.
Would you rather have Corey Coleman or Travis Benjamin? Describe the ideal number one X receiver. Done? Terrell Pryor is already here! The prototype! The recruiting poster for coverage dictators!
Ray Horton isn't overrated at all. Wile E checked out the players he had...you said "anything you want"....Wile E needs his mouth washed out with soap anyway Ray had talent in Arizona, but not much since in Cleveland and Tennessee.
His defenses were also burdened by his offenses. Wile E says he can't find out some of this without paying for it, but he thinks the offenses he worked with couldn't hold onto the ball enough, left his guys with bad field position, and wore out at the end of games and the season.
Makes sense. That's how you can rank high in most categories and lower in points allowed, right?
You know, the defense gives up one first down but gets a stop and after the punt the offense gets it on the 24. The offense turns the ball over at the 32 two plays later and the defense is back on the field already within field goal range and behind on points.
Now the offense pounds them on the ground. The defense stops them but "surrenders" the field goal. The defense did okay, but not in scoring.
Turnovers also go way up when the opposing team is playing from behind. Most turnovers are strip-sacks and interceptions, and even the best quarterbacks take chances trying to come back.
Ray got very little of that. Ray Horton is a really good defensive coordinator. He'll do much better with the talent he inherited than Mike Pettine did, and he just got two stud inside linebackers, a left defensive end, and an outside linebacker. And a 255 lb. Mingo.
Mingo will kick ass. Sort of. Because he'll still cover tight ends too. But he's stronger now and will be a scarier passrusher and run-stopper.
Opposing tight ends won't be the easy way out for quarterbacks.
Ogbah and Nassib can rush the passer. They aren't all they can be yet but they're already that.
The big thing with Ray Horton is he's coming after you, from every angle, even on run downs. Nothing is predictable, and there aren't many strong tendencies to exploit.
He wants to play every down in your backfield. If it were chess, he'd be getting behind your pawns asap and threatening everything he can.
I know Wile E loves that in general (he idolized Bud Carson), but to me it's just telling you: You can do this with inexperienced players. It's vulnerable to big plays (on cutbacks, bombs to tall receivers, delayed draws, dual threat quarterbacks, Ben Roethsenberger, etc) but also--as long as there is penetration-it blows things up in the backfield and forces turnovers.
This is exactly perfect for this team in 2016. It's not boxing. It's a street fight. Inexperienced guys who haven't fully integrated yet can mess up any offense. Ray Horton is in the right place at the right time.
Hue Jackson AND his experienced veteran assistant coaches are all highly regarded by people who actually know what they're talking about.
History here doesn't matter. Hue isn't Mike or Rob, you see? I'm not sure he ever even met them. I suppose, just in case, he should stick to bottled water and carry a rabbit's foot, though.
The guy who normally writes here talks about the Steelers like they're the guys from the eighties or something.
Well, during the eighties the Browns went toe-to-toe with that dynasty. Yes, they lost more than they won, but they gave the Steelers hell.
Well okay, maybe the Steelers are just too loaded and experienced this season, but there's always the wild card.
They should kill the Ravens twice. That team is full of holes. When did Joe Flacco become Tom Brady? I must have missed something. I mean he's pretty good, but the guys on NFL Radio must have altars to him and the Wiz in their basements or something.
The Bengals? Ok yeah they're tough, but they lost their second AND third receivers, and (especially) Hue Jackson.
I think the Browns can compete with them in 2016. Shut up Wile E you said I could write whatever I want!
Anyway you're the guy writing about that Baylor with Pryor and Coleman thing. Don't you believe your own words?
Experience schmegsperience! Robert Griffin III IS a veteran. So is the whole offensive line except for Shon Coleman. So are the running backs and Barnidge and...well those guys!
I see RG3 throwing bombs to Coleman and Pryor the Bengals can't stop, and two or three guys all up in Dalton's grill every single down.
That offense is still too talented not to be really good this coming season, but it was Hue Jackson who got them into the top five. They didn't just lose that. Their division rival GAINED it!
I'm not even as awed and intimidated by the Steelers as Wile E is. Johnny Manziel threw for 370 yards on them. I think McCown strafed them too. The Browns could luck out and steal one from them too!
The AFC North is now THE toughest division in football, with the Ravens as the weakest team. That's right the Ravens, NOT the more talented at nearly every position Browns.
Cam Erving was a CONSENSUS first round draft pick, and called by some guys the best offensive lineman in his draft as a center. He hasn't played center yet. He's had an off season to lick his wounds and fix what needed fixing. Stop fretting about center! Anyway a MATTHEWS is here for depth.
Would you rather have Corey Coleman or Travis Benjamin? Describe the ideal number one X receiver. Done? Terrell Pryor is already here! The prototype! The recruiting poster for coverage dictators!
Ray Horton isn't overrated at all. Wile E checked out the players he had...you said "anything you want"....Wile E needs his mouth washed out with soap anyway Ray had talent in Arizona, but not much since in Cleveland and Tennessee.
His defenses were also burdened by his offenses. Wile E says he can't find out some of this without paying for it, but he thinks the offenses he worked with couldn't hold onto the ball enough, left his guys with bad field position, and wore out at the end of games and the season.
Makes sense. That's how you can rank high in most categories and lower in points allowed, right?
You know, the defense gives up one first down but gets a stop and after the punt the offense gets it on the 24. The offense turns the ball over at the 32 two plays later and the defense is back on the field already within field goal range and behind on points.
Now the offense pounds them on the ground. The defense stops them but "surrenders" the field goal. The defense did okay, but not in scoring.
Turnovers also go way up when the opposing team is playing from behind. Most turnovers are strip-sacks and interceptions, and even the best quarterbacks take chances trying to come back.
Ray got very little of that. Ray Horton is a really good defensive coordinator. He'll do much better with the talent he inherited than Mike Pettine did, and he just got two stud inside linebackers, a left defensive end, and an outside linebacker. And a 255 lb. Mingo.
Mingo will kick ass. Sort of. Because he'll still cover tight ends too. But he's stronger now and will be a scarier passrusher and run-stopper.
Opposing tight ends won't be the easy way out for quarterbacks.
Ogbah and Nassib can rush the passer. They aren't all they can be yet but they're already that.
The big thing with Ray Horton is he's coming after you, from every angle, even on run downs. Nothing is predictable, and there aren't many strong tendencies to exploit.
He wants to play every down in your backfield. If it were chess, he'd be getting behind your pawns asap and threatening everything he can.
I know Wile E loves that in general (he idolized Bud Carson), but to me it's just telling you: You can do this with inexperienced players. It's vulnerable to big plays (on cutbacks, bombs to tall receivers, delayed draws, dual threat quarterbacks, Ben Roethsenberger, etc) but also--as long as there is penetration-it blows things up in the backfield and forces turnovers.
This is exactly perfect for this team in 2016. It's not boxing. It's a street fight. Inexperienced guys who haven't fully integrated yet can mess up any offense. Ray Horton is in the right place at the right time.
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Microbes not Mandatory for Cleveland Browns
People who think that Hue Jackson wants to retain smurf wide receivers with stone hands aren't thinking.
Who were the smurfs on the Bengals? Uh...Mohammed Sanu?
If a smurf is really special, like Steve Smith or Julian Edelman, well of course he's a keeper. And I can see Hawkins who, when healthy, led the team in receptions. But Gabriel?
Didn't you see all those drops? They kept sitting him back down and bringing him back. He kept dropping passes. At the end, it was anybody but him. Didn't you see that?
Coleman, at 5'11", is the shortest of the four wide receivers drafted, and unlike Ray Farmer, Sashi Brown didn't scour the country for undrafted smurfs either.
Darius Jennings played very well once they had given up on Gabriel--didn't you see that? If you really think they just HAVE TO keep a little tiny guy in order to make sure to cut a draft pick, why Gabriel?
Remember me? I compared Gabriel to Steve Smith. Predicted a great year for him. I was wrong. I admit it.
Microbes are not critical to an offense. There is no rule saying that your slot receiver has to be tiny.
No, I'll predict this right now: Not just Coleman, but Higgins and Payton as well, are almost certain to make this final roster.
I like Hartline, but the latter two do what he does, so I think he's hitting the dusty trail. I also believe Rodney Pryorfield stays, and that's four. This leaves room for Hawkins and...well I won't shovel dirt on Gabriel yet. He did catch well as a rookie, so he might get it back together.
But if not, it's Jennings or somebody they sign.
I have to agree with PFF about Ricardo Lewis so far, but he comes with a big asterisk: If he doesn't start catching the damn ball in a hurry, he should make it to the practice squad.
And he could be converted to safety. He's a terrific athlete. He could (eventually) be a great defender. Maybe even a cornerback!
These are the best excuses I can find for Sashi having drafted him in the fourth round. They just wanted the athlete.
I've done more digging on Seth DeValve, and really think they stole the guy. When you compare him to wide receivers, he's just a guy. But compared to tight ends, he's just a freak. Just a couple inches shorter than the ideal...with a forty inch vertical jump.
He still has room on his frame for more muscle, notably in his lower body. He's very lean now.
He was NOT injured. As we now know, he had a growth plate issue in both feet, which has been corrected. He is healthy.
He's also remarkably intelligent and disciplined. As a tight end, DeValve can make an impact as a receiver as a rookie. He's really the fourth pass-catcher who almost certainly makes this roster.
The pass-catchers are shaping up nicely. We can call DeValve Barnidge II. I can't find that undrafted tight end they just signed, but he's a probable keeper too because he can actually block well in line and is an underrated receiver.
Then you've got your scary deep threats in Coleman and Pryor. If Hawkins makes it, fine. There's a sneaky little guy with sure hands and some speed.
Then you've got the possession guys in Payton and Higgins. It's a nice balance. Hue Jackson can run any offense he wants with the skill players he has. Payton is like Sanu. Higgins is ten pounds away from Hartline.
I would guess that for now it could be up to 50% Baylor offense to make it easy for the new receivers, as well as RG3, but a lot of more conventional stuff as well.
Honestly, I'm finding it harder and harder to remain pessimisticly pragmatic and superstitious. I have to keep reminding myself that letting Mack and Scwartze walk destroyed the entire offensive line and stuff.
By the way, I don't believe RG3 can't succeed without his college offense. He tried to do too much too soon in Washington, and before he was fully healed.
He sputtered, but didn't fall on his face like it's been described. Statistically, he was never even below average.
I have little doubt that he's more advanced now than he was then.
But the Baylor offense is still extremely logical, because of Pryor and Coleman, as well as the guy who put it on the map. That's how they can hit the ground running in 2016.
Who were the smurfs on the Bengals? Uh...Mohammed Sanu?
If a smurf is really special, like Steve Smith or Julian Edelman, well of course he's a keeper. And I can see Hawkins who, when healthy, led the team in receptions. But Gabriel?
Didn't you see all those drops? They kept sitting him back down and bringing him back. He kept dropping passes. At the end, it was anybody but him. Didn't you see that?
Coleman, at 5'11", is the shortest of the four wide receivers drafted, and unlike Ray Farmer, Sashi Brown didn't scour the country for undrafted smurfs either.
Darius Jennings played very well once they had given up on Gabriel--didn't you see that? If you really think they just HAVE TO keep a little tiny guy in order to make sure to cut a draft pick, why Gabriel?
Remember me? I compared Gabriel to Steve Smith. Predicted a great year for him. I was wrong. I admit it.
Microbes are not critical to an offense. There is no rule saying that your slot receiver has to be tiny.
No, I'll predict this right now: Not just Coleman, but Higgins and Payton as well, are almost certain to make this final roster.
I like Hartline, but the latter two do what he does, so I think he's hitting the dusty trail. I also believe Rodney Pryorfield stays, and that's four. This leaves room for Hawkins and...well I won't shovel dirt on Gabriel yet. He did catch well as a rookie, so he might get it back together.
But if not, it's Jennings or somebody they sign.
I have to agree with PFF about Ricardo Lewis so far, but he comes with a big asterisk: If he doesn't start catching the damn ball in a hurry, he should make it to the practice squad.
And he could be converted to safety. He's a terrific athlete. He could (eventually) be a great defender. Maybe even a cornerback!
These are the best excuses I can find for Sashi having drafted him in the fourth round. They just wanted the athlete.
I've done more digging on Seth DeValve, and really think they stole the guy. When you compare him to wide receivers, he's just a guy. But compared to tight ends, he's just a freak. Just a couple inches shorter than the ideal...with a forty inch vertical jump.
He still has room on his frame for more muscle, notably in his lower body. He's very lean now.
He was NOT injured. As we now know, he had a growth plate issue in both feet, which has been corrected. He is healthy.
He's also remarkably intelligent and disciplined. As a tight end, DeValve can make an impact as a receiver as a rookie. He's really the fourth pass-catcher who almost certainly makes this roster.
The pass-catchers are shaping up nicely. We can call DeValve Barnidge II. I can't find that undrafted tight end they just signed, but he's a probable keeper too because he can actually block well in line and is an underrated receiver.
Then you've got your scary deep threats in Coleman and Pryor. If Hawkins makes it, fine. There's a sneaky little guy with sure hands and some speed.
Then you've got the possession guys in Payton and Higgins. It's a nice balance. Hue Jackson can run any offense he wants with the skill players he has. Payton is like Sanu. Higgins is ten pounds away from Hartline.
I would guess that for now it could be up to 50% Baylor offense to make it easy for the new receivers, as well as RG3, but a lot of more conventional stuff as well.
Honestly, I'm finding it harder and harder to remain pessimisticly pragmatic and superstitious. I have to keep reminding myself that letting Mack and Scwartze walk destroyed the entire offensive line and stuff.
By the way, I don't believe RG3 can't succeed without his college offense. He tried to do too much too soon in Washington, and before he was fully healed.
He sputtered, but didn't fall on his face like it's been described. Statistically, he was never even below average.
I have little doubt that he's more advanced now than he was then.
But the Baylor offense is still extremely logical, because of Pryor and Coleman, as well as the guy who put it on the map. That's how they can hit the ground running in 2016.
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Wait the Browns Defense Might Not Suck Either!
Ray Horton has rightfully taken some dings for his post-Arizona defenses. They did tend to fold at crunch-time, and weren't the sack factories he wants.
No, it's not because it's too complicated. Regardless of the alignment, it's attack-oriented, and the players know pre-snap what to do. It's frankly the opposite of the Ryan/Pettine defense because the players play (rather than hesitate and analyze).
Talent does matter. As I've been repeating repeatedly, the pre-off-season roster was quite talented, and was handicapped by a Rubic's Cube scheme.
Paul Kruger doesn't belong in coverage. Tashaun Gipson isn't a strong safety. Whitten shouldn't be in center field. Sometimes simpler is better: Let the players do what they do best, even though the offense will see it coming.
The types of players they drafted should be telling, right?
In Schobert and Scooby, they got instinctive attack guys who make plays in the backfield. Schobert can play outside, as well.
Nassib and Ogbah are passrushers. In fact, every front seven guy on the new roster gets sacks.
The Browns haven't been able to stop the run for years. If you think Ray Horton will fix that all at once, you're too optimistic.
The four inside linebackers who make this team will include three who are very good at stopping the run (as in for zero yards), and should make it very hard to run between the tackles.
Stop thinking it's all on the defensive linemen. Linebackers are the guys who are supposed to hog all the tackles in the NFL. Most defensive linemen are badly overmatched by tailbacks, especially with guys as big as they are hanging on them.
In Ray's scheme, unlike Pettine's, two of the defensive linemen attack gaps, pulling three offensive linemen with them to make big messes in the backfield. A safety and inside linebacker, or two inside linebackers, are there to intercept the running back as he tries to circumnavigate these pile-ups.
The gaps between the pile-ups are predictable, because the aggressive defensive end and tackle are forcing it. When it works as intended, the back's inside gaps are filled.
He can go outside, of course. This defense will be attacked on the perimeter. It will get burned sometimes. You'll have to deal with that.
But Ray doesn't make it easy. The outside linebackers are real passrushers, and will be coming. The left defensive end will sometimes shoot inside. A Schobert or a Scooby won't wait for it-they'll be in the backfield as soon as they read run, and be in pursuit if they can't blow it up.
It's a downhill defense. An Ernie Shavers "You go or I go" defense. Shavers won 9 out of ten fights. Just got knocked out in the ones he lost. His best defense was his offense.
Ray wants to win nine out of ten downs, see?
I don't believe Horton has had this much talent on his more recent teams.
If Mingo and Gilbert get it together, it could be one of the best, right away.
Especially Gilbert, the knucklehead. Even if he's a dumbass, or remains a knucklehead, Horton might just do the "Just don't let that guy catch anything" thing with him.
Ray was a defensive back himself, and might be able to fix him. That would be huge, because his Gilbert's potential is off the charts.
Maybe he'll crap out again I don't know. But then, the Browns did get the 5'11" Jamar Taylor from the Dolphins. Horton and a fresh start might produce a winner here.
Mingo is different. He's serious and works hard. Now he's much bigger and stronger. Ray really likes him.
He could still match up with tight ends in coverage. I can't help thinking that this is what Ray meant when he mentioned "doing what I ask him to do".
You don't want Kruger or Orchard or Ogbah doing that (well Ogbah possibly), but Mingo has the hips for it, and it's very important these days. Tight ends are running rampant. Take that tight end away and good things happen.
No, it's not because it's too complicated. Regardless of the alignment, it's attack-oriented, and the players know pre-snap what to do. It's frankly the opposite of the Ryan/Pettine defense because the players play (rather than hesitate and analyze).
Talent does matter. As I've been repeating repeatedly, the pre-off-season roster was quite talented, and was handicapped by a Rubic's Cube scheme.
Paul Kruger doesn't belong in coverage. Tashaun Gipson isn't a strong safety. Whitten shouldn't be in center field. Sometimes simpler is better: Let the players do what they do best, even though the offense will see it coming.
The types of players they drafted should be telling, right?
In Schobert and Scooby, they got instinctive attack guys who make plays in the backfield. Schobert can play outside, as well.
Nassib and Ogbah are passrushers. In fact, every front seven guy on the new roster gets sacks.
The Browns haven't been able to stop the run for years. If you think Ray Horton will fix that all at once, you're too optimistic.
The four inside linebackers who make this team will include three who are very good at stopping the run (as in for zero yards), and should make it very hard to run between the tackles.
Stop thinking it's all on the defensive linemen. Linebackers are the guys who are supposed to hog all the tackles in the NFL. Most defensive linemen are badly overmatched by tailbacks, especially with guys as big as they are hanging on them.
In Ray's scheme, unlike Pettine's, two of the defensive linemen attack gaps, pulling three offensive linemen with them to make big messes in the backfield. A safety and inside linebacker, or two inside linebackers, are there to intercept the running back as he tries to circumnavigate these pile-ups.
The gaps between the pile-ups are predictable, because the aggressive defensive end and tackle are forcing it. When it works as intended, the back's inside gaps are filled.
He can go outside, of course. This defense will be attacked on the perimeter. It will get burned sometimes. You'll have to deal with that.
But Ray doesn't make it easy. The outside linebackers are real passrushers, and will be coming. The left defensive end will sometimes shoot inside. A Schobert or a Scooby won't wait for it-they'll be in the backfield as soon as they read run, and be in pursuit if they can't blow it up.
It's a downhill defense. An Ernie Shavers "You go or I go" defense. Shavers won 9 out of ten fights. Just got knocked out in the ones he lost. His best defense was his offense.
Ray wants to win nine out of ten downs, see?
I don't believe Horton has had this much talent on his more recent teams.
If Mingo and Gilbert get it together, it could be one of the best, right away.
Especially Gilbert, the knucklehead. Even if he's a dumbass, or remains a knucklehead, Horton might just do the "Just don't let that guy catch anything" thing with him.
Ray was a defensive back himself, and might be able to fix him. That would be huge, because his Gilbert's potential is off the charts.
Maybe he'll crap out again I don't know. But then, the Browns did get the 5'11" Jamar Taylor from the Dolphins. Horton and a fresh start might produce a winner here.
Mingo is different. He's serious and works hard. Now he's much bigger and stronger. Ray really likes him.
He could still match up with tight ends in coverage. I can't help thinking that this is what Ray meant when he mentioned "doing what I ask him to do".
You don't want Kruger or Orchard or Ogbah doing that (well Ogbah possibly), but Mingo has the hips for it, and it's very important these days. Tight ends are running rampant. Take that tight end away and good things happen.
Monday, May 9, 2016
Scary Browns Thoughts: Wait'll they Get a Loada This
The nattering naybobs are starting to come out questioning the Browns Draft picks and doing the woodacooda thing.
I've been strongly tempted to do the same thing, and actually agree with Peter Smith on a couple picks, notably Boeringer, the freak wide receiver who gets dissed much like Terrell Pryor.
But Pete disagrees with Hue about a quarterback. I can't let myself touch that one. I've got to see a coach screw up at least a little before I start thinking I know better than him, ya know?
And Pete was way off on Crowell. I got one question for Peter: WHAT hole!? When there is no hole, he didn't miss the hole. Where did you see a hole?
Peter's right about his not being as balanced, strong, and/or "beast mode"-y as a guy his size should be, but he's still really good with zone-blocking and when there IS a hole.
And the Browns don't need another guard...although Pete sure makes a great case for a studly one that the Bengals got after the Browns passed him up in the third.
I respect Pete, who is fair to everybody except Kessler and Crowell. I wish we could drink some beer and argue about it.
A Pittsburgh writer doesn't think the Browns did a good job of upgrading the pass rush. That guy isn't a dummy either, but he's still wrong.
He says that Ogbah will be learning a whole new position, and in reality so will Nassib.
He's mostly right. Ogbah has rarely rushed the passer from a standing position before. Wow he won't know where to put his feet or anything! He'll be so confused!
Sorry I couldn't help that. Certainly it's much simpler for a down lineman, but let's not go overboard with this transition stuff, and the best passrusher(s) among the outside linebackers WILL be down linemen in sub defenses.
And Nassib hasn't had to worry about the run. He was a defensive end, but not the left end in a Horton defense, where he'll sometimes have to stand up the right tackle and watch the edge and the inside gap.
But in both cases, the Pittsburgh guy doesn't get that these guys are both semi-projects, and aren't expected to make huge impacts as rookies.
Just like a lot of local yokels and black clouds, this guy also doesn't get that Kruger and Mingo can't get much of a pass rush going when they're running around in coverage.
Check it out: Von Miller couldn't either. I can prove it! Show me one play in which Miller covered somebody and got a sack on the same play. See? Is it sinking in yet? Knock-knock anybody home?
On to what I really wanted to talk about. Yep. Pryor.
Gil Brandt was talking about Des Bryant the other day, and how some guy said he only runs like 3 patterns.
Gil chuckled, and said Bryant only needs to run three patterns. Mark (I forget-another former GM) compared it to a pitcher with a 95mph fastball and an 87 mph change-up.
Well?
I thought about this more after discussing the Baylor offense. The thought is that Hue would mix a lot of that in (with the brand new Baylor receiver) to help RG3 get back on his feet.
But isn't it also perfect to give Terrell Pryor a head start?
What do they say about Corey Coleman? He basically only ran two routes. Because he played for Baylor.
Ok so don't you think Terrell Pryor could learn two routes by the end of pre-season?
Actually, he's already learned all the routes, and is more advanced than Coleman is. He'll probably help Coleman learn the rest of the route tree.
It's true that wide receivers have a lot of nuances to learn, and that things look a lot different to a receiver than they do from the pocket.
But I'd bet money that Hue Jackson has already decided to have Pryor focus on two routes for the moment, and will use him in the Baylor offense right away.
Get Coleman going immediately. Put RG3 in his comfort zone. And turn that physical freak ex-quarterback loose.
Coleman. Pryor. Barnidge. Johnson. RG3. I can see Hue grinning from here.
THIS JUST IN: Peter Smith must have read my blog last night because he just talked about how the Baylor offense might help the Browns running game.
He should have had enough class to include a link to my blog, as I have to his article. I can't say more, since he could have seen the Baylor applications for himself, and the bulk of his article was as usual original and smart.
He repeated his "vision" criticism of Crowell which is wrong, but focused on Duke Johnson as the tailback here.
I'd overlooked that. I'd become preoccupied with the bigger, stronger Crowell and the fact that Duke is a good wide receiver.
I also don't like to think about Duke trying to block linebackers in pass protection.
But Pete is right here: Duke as a runner and outlet receiver is a good fit in this Baylor backfield.
The 21 or 22 personnel grouping would force a bigger, somewhat slower defense into the field, whereas only one running back would bring out a nickel or dime defense, even if one of the receivers was wing tight end DeValve.
That might not be as effective, as the two faster defenders on the "slot" guys could cheat inside a little further, and coverage specialists could sometimes defeat picks by switching assignments. In fact, in this case Crowell might still be the better option as a runner, if he can start blasting these little guys instead of trying to scrape by them.
Still, Johnson has more big plays in him, is better in the open field, is surprisingly hard to take down (wish Crowell would learn something from him there), and can't be covered as a tailback.
Crow might sometimes stay in to handle pass rush leakage, but Duke could flare out as an outlet receiver, with those big gaps on either side to exploit.
Any combination could work.
But I still just can't wait to see Terell Pryor and Cory Coleman on the same field, running the same two patterns, with RG3 back in Baylor...I'm all a-twitter.
I've been strongly tempted to do the same thing, and actually agree with Peter Smith on a couple picks, notably Boeringer, the freak wide receiver who gets dissed much like Terrell Pryor.
But Pete disagrees with Hue about a quarterback. I can't let myself touch that one. I've got to see a coach screw up at least a little before I start thinking I know better than him, ya know?
And Pete was way off on Crowell. I got one question for Peter: WHAT hole!? When there is no hole, he didn't miss the hole. Where did you see a hole?
Peter's right about his not being as balanced, strong, and/or "beast mode"-y as a guy his size should be, but he's still really good with zone-blocking and when there IS a hole.
And the Browns don't need another guard...although Pete sure makes a great case for a studly one that the Bengals got after the Browns passed him up in the third.
I respect Pete, who is fair to everybody except Kessler and Crowell. I wish we could drink some beer and argue about it.
A Pittsburgh writer doesn't think the Browns did a good job of upgrading the pass rush. That guy isn't a dummy either, but he's still wrong.
He says that Ogbah will be learning a whole new position, and in reality so will Nassib.
He's mostly right. Ogbah has rarely rushed the passer from a standing position before. Wow he won't know where to put his feet or anything! He'll be so confused!
Sorry I couldn't help that. Certainly it's much simpler for a down lineman, but let's not go overboard with this transition stuff, and the best passrusher(s) among the outside linebackers WILL be down linemen in sub defenses.
And Nassib hasn't had to worry about the run. He was a defensive end, but not the left end in a Horton defense, where he'll sometimes have to stand up the right tackle and watch the edge and the inside gap.
But in both cases, the Pittsburgh guy doesn't get that these guys are both semi-projects, and aren't expected to make huge impacts as rookies.
Just like a lot of local yokels and black clouds, this guy also doesn't get that Kruger and Mingo can't get much of a pass rush going when they're running around in coverage.
Check it out: Von Miller couldn't either. I can prove it! Show me one play in which Miller covered somebody and got a sack on the same play. See? Is it sinking in yet? Knock-knock anybody home?
On to what I really wanted to talk about. Yep. Pryor.
Gil Brandt was talking about Des Bryant the other day, and how some guy said he only runs like 3 patterns.
Gil chuckled, and said Bryant only needs to run three patterns. Mark (I forget-another former GM) compared it to a pitcher with a 95mph fastball and an 87 mph change-up.
Well?
I thought about this more after discussing the Baylor offense. The thought is that Hue would mix a lot of that in (with the brand new Baylor receiver) to help RG3 get back on his feet.
But isn't it also perfect to give Terrell Pryor a head start?
What do they say about Corey Coleman? He basically only ran two routes. Because he played for Baylor.
Ok so don't you think Terrell Pryor could learn two routes by the end of pre-season?
Actually, he's already learned all the routes, and is more advanced than Coleman is. He'll probably help Coleman learn the rest of the route tree.
It's true that wide receivers have a lot of nuances to learn, and that things look a lot different to a receiver than they do from the pocket.
But I'd bet money that Hue Jackson has already decided to have Pryor focus on two routes for the moment, and will use him in the Baylor offense right away.
Get Coleman going immediately. Put RG3 in his comfort zone. And turn that physical freak ex-quarterback loose.
Coleman. Pryor. Barnidge. Johnson. RG3. I can see Hue grinning from here.
THIS JUST IN: Peter Smith must have read my blog last night because he just talked about how the Baylor offense might help the Browns running game.
He should have had enough class to include a link to my blog, as I have to his article. I can't say more, since he could have seen the Baylor applications for himself, and the bulk of his article was as usual original and smart.
He repeated his "vision" criticism of Crowell which is wrong, but focused on Duke Johnson as the tailback here.
I'd overlooked that. I'd become preoccupied with the bigger, stronger Crowell and the fact that Duke is a good wide receiver.
I also don't like to think about Duke trying to block linebackers in pass protection.
But Pete is right here: Duke as a runner and outlet receiver is a good fit in this Baylor backfield.
The 21 or 22 personnel grouping would force a bigger, somewhat slower defense into the field, whereas only one running back would bring out a nickel or dime defense, even if one of the receivers was wing tight end DeValve.
That might not be as effective, as the two faster defenders on the "slot" guys could cheat inside a little further, and coverage specialists could sometimes defeat picks by switching assignments. In fact, in this case Crowell might still be the better option as a runner, if he can start blasting these little guys instead of trying to scrape by them.
Still, Johnson has more big plays in him, is better in the open field, is surprisingly hard to take down (wish Crowell would learn something from him there), and can't be covered as a tailback.
Crow might sometimes stay in to handle pass rush leakage, but Duke could flare out as an outlet receiver, with those big gaps on either side to exploit.
Any combination could work.
But I still just can't wait to see Terell Pryor and Cory Coleman on the same field, running the same two patterns, with RG3 back in Baylor...I'm all a-twitter.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)