Actually, the Browns Draft Didn't Suck After All

First, this correction is urgent: The Browns don't lack depth at nose tackle.  They might be deeper at nose tackle than any other NFL team.  Rubin can play nose tackle (quite well) DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

At first I was infuriated by what Banner did in the draft.  And Tony Grossi might be right about what could have happened had they traded down rather than draft Mingo; basicly Jarvis Jones (or something) and a second-rounder--one of the two players being a cornerback.

But not being a blockhead, I had to try to understand why they did what they did by walking a block or so in their shoes, and considering the fact that Ray Horton had a lot to do with this pick.

There were three elite 3-4 OLB's in this draft, and Mingo was one of them.  Mingo is the quickest, and fastest.  His college production was harmed by how he was used in his scheme.  He was a nominal DE on the strong side, where he was double-teamed and had to set the edge often.  He was rotated out quite a bit, missing plays.

Tony was wrong to compare him to Kimerion Wimbley, because Mingo already has a variety of pass-rush moves which Wimbley never developed.  Counter-moves seem enate in him, as he suckers blockers with head-fakes and uses his hands like a kung fu guy. He's taller, with better reach than Wimbley.  He's even quicker, and faster.

Mingo is also quicker and faster than Jordan and Ansah.

Tony was right in suggesting that opponents will run right at him, and that he needs to get bigger.  But this has been overstated, as I learned from Mike Krupka and Pat Kirwan. Playing in the SEC against formidable offensive linemen and tight ends, he usually succeeded in setting the edge, and excelled (I repeat excelled) in getting off blocks.

Where Ansah would use a rip and leverage to force the lineman off-balance and then shed him, Mingo extends his hands more and uses his superior balance and quickness more--but he succeeded.

One game the amatuers looked at had Mingo playing contain against a scrambling quarterback.  He usually got parallel to the QB and stopped.  It was obvious to me that that's what he was supposed to do--stop the quarterback if he tried to run.  They turned this into him getting shut out by the right tackle.  How ignorant.

Kirwan said several times that those who say that Barky can't deal with blocks are wrong, and cites several times that he saw Mingo actually engage a guard with his shoulder, and then bounce right or left to make a tackle without giving an inch.  He's 240, but none of it's fat.  He's wiry.

Opposite Paul Kruger, who is bigger, shorter, and relies much more heavily on leverage, Mingo is the most strikingly dissimilar type that was available in this draft class. Horton can move these two around opponent-by-opponent to find the best matchups.

Mingo didn't cover much in college, but did cover enough to show how capable he is in that phase.  He can not only drop back into a zone, but can actually run and change directions with tight ends and big recievers in man.  Jordan can do this too, but Ansah probably never will.  With more experience, Mingo probably becomes the best of them in coverage.

Look at the tapes, and you see it: He moves like a cornerback.  Even when he blitzes from the edge, it looks almost like a cornerback blitze.

The way is was with Kruger and Sheard, you really don't want either of those guys in coverage.

It seems like Horton is zeroed in on speed, as first he tries Robertson at ILB, then they don't draft an ILB, but do draft the fastest OLB available.

Now, if they had traded down, I don't believe they would have drafted Jarvis Jones.  He is another leverage guy, like Sheard and Kruger.  High risk in coverage.  Certainly a great player, but not like Mingo.

I liked McFadden in the third round.  He's really about one inch shorter than Joe Haden, and is a really good cornerback.  The "Honey Badger" actually missed two appointments with NFL teams on the eve of the draft, and frankly doesn't project well to playing outside in a press/man scheme in the NFL.

I was initially infuriated when the Browns traded for yet still another slot reciever in Devone Bess.  I'm biased, because Nelson actually had slightly better stats, Norwood was never given a fair shot, Benjamin shows great upside, and then there's that Brian Brennan-like Josh Cooper kid who will now probably get kicked to the curb.

But then I found out that all they did was flip a couple picks not far apart, and got the guy almost for free (and cheap cap-wise).  Now I think it was a good move.  Bess is strictly a possession guy, but very durable and consistant, and still just 27 years old.

And while this "eggzzbeereeunzz" stuff for recievers is massively overstressed, it IS good to have this guy in here to help guide the youngsters.

Trading the 4th and 5th rounders for 2014 3rd and 4th-rounders was a good move too. Two thirds and two fourths so far next season is some nice ammo to trade up with, should Weeden/Campbell fail, or should the Browns be in range of a true future franchise guy even if they don't, or even if they just want to load up.

Banner is absolutely right: they're not going to the Superbowl in 2013, and they are building this thing to last.

I also liked that the third rounder next season will be Pittsburgh's, since Pittsburgh will suck.

Wish I could say the same about Baltimore and Cinci, but I can't.  Damn Ozzie....

Bryant and Gilkey are more than just afterthoughts.  Gilkey will be in the mix immediately.  I'd be surprised if he won a starting job at guard as a rookie or anything, but not if he backs up more than one position and makes the active roster.  Kind of expect one of the guards they inherited to be released.

Bryant seems to fit as an OLB, but I was surprised when Chud talked about him gaining weight.  He'd only do that if he's meant to play DE here.  Probably a practice squad guy.

And I don't care about pot.  And we all drank and drove when we were young.  If your glass house has a basement, better go there now.

Undrafted "DT" Dave Kruger is raw and inexperienced, but has freaky speed and quickness for his size.  He's much bigger than his bro Paul, and projects to DE in this scheme.  He might be another practice squad guy, but has great upside.  Look for this guy in 2014 he could turn into a monster!!!

FB Garrett Hoskins will get his shot at fullback.  He played tight end in college, but is 6'2", 252.  He's a good reciever too, so I'm rooting for him (if not Smelley).

Per Sobo, had OT Chris Faulk remained healthy, he would have been a mid-round pick. He's 6'6", 331.  Might have stolen one here--Sobo is a pretty good source.

There are other UFA's like ILB Mike Niam who could surprise, and this is a pretty good UFA haul so far.  Lots of WR's and corners.

I believe they could still trade Sheard and/or Rubin.  They've really got too many OLB's and  NT/DE's now.

NFL Radio on Browns, Mingo

Pat Kirwan doesn't agree with many of our local barstool talent scouts and GMs and says the Mingo pick was just about a no-brainer sans a successful trade-down.

He likes several cornerbacks who will make it into the third round, and says "You can find your way to a cornerback in this draft.  You can't find your way to Mingo".

Kirwan differs with those who say that Mingo can't take on blockers, citing more than one occasion when Mingo crashed into a guard and then made a tackle.  He says Mingo is "wiry-strong" and will probably get up to around 245, but not bigger...but that's just fine for what they want him to do, and he can succeed at 235 right now.

Now, according to sources, Joe Banner came down with acute Pinnochioitis and had to have most of a pool-cue sized shcnozz sawed off so they could get him back to his hotel room last night.

Yeah he wanted Mingo more than Ansah and Jordan, so bad that he had a deal in place to trade up for him.  Yeah I believe that a whole bunch of people liked him better than the three left tackles or the aforementioned two de/olb's.

And he never considered trading down when the guy he wanted all along fell to him at six.

Well, he might have considered some if his phone rang one time, but it didn't, so technicly he didn't really lie much.  Sorta.

Anyhow, probably nobody traded and Jordan/Ansah weren't there but Mingo is quicker/faster than both so they nabbed him and made the rest up.

Junior GM Chicken Little

It's always frustrated me that dumb people are too dumb to know when they've been humiliated by smart people, and just keep blabbering.  I had to leave the forums--same old negative, irrational bullcrap.

As a junior, Barkevious Mingo was used on the strong side, and was frequently double-teamed.  He was used in coverage occasionally.  Had he been used on the weak side and actually rushed more often, he would have had more sacks.  He also rotated in and out a lot, missing a lot of time on the field.  I'm not sure I understand his Coach.

Mike Krupka, Pat Kirwin and others have talked about this, and it's well-known to everybody who does their homework (or at least pays attention to those who do.)  Mingo was schemed out of a lot of sacks as a junior.

I personally liked Ansah the best, because he had size and strength to go with his quickness and speed, but Ansah and Dion were gone.

I don't buy that Mingo won't get bigger.  I mean, is this because he's hardwired not to store FAT?  And nobody said he won't get stronger.  He sure as hell will get stronger in the NFL, and that's more important.

He's very much like Jordan athleticly, with the fluid hips and speed to cover (and by that I mean run with big wide recievers, let alone tight ends).  He hasn't done as much of that as Jordan, and needs more refinement and polish--but he has similar upside and was the best available.

The bloom is off the Milliner rose since others besides me realized that Horton will almost never run any other coverage than press/man.  In that coverage, Milliner is about the same as half a dozen other corners in this draft.  And balls tend to bounce off his hands.

But it's ignorant to call Milliner "slow", or to say that he's inferior in man coverage.  You're on my side but you blow my credibility and embarrass me.  Milliner is an excellent cornerback.

And I just knew that one of you would have to ask who would ever give up a second round pick for Jabaal Sheard.  You mean for a young, experienced strong side defensive end who can rush the passer and stop the run?  Yeah who would ever want something like that when those guys are a dime-a-dozen in the second round?

.......Ok that was sarcasm.  Lots of teams in need of a defensive end would gladly cough up a shot-in-the-dark second rounder for Sheard OR Rubin DUH.

That's if they peddle them.  But who knows?  Horton might say "screw the cornerback I want ALL these guys!"

GOOD PICK.

Trade UP? REALLY?

It's believable that Ray Horton wants Dion Jordan.  It's not believable that they'd trade up to get him instead of Ansah.  It doesn't make any sense whatsoever.  I think somebody just made it up.

If the Browns offered just a fifth round pick for Davone Bess, I guess that's not so bad.  Not neccessary, but not that bad.  Not as good as letting the players we have play, and not cutting one of them.

I'm kind of off the Smith bandwagon.  He hit around 40% on deep passes, and Phil Simms' mention of his showing no "big, risky, aggressive" downfield plays scared me.  While Simms said the same about EJ Manuel, his accuracy deep was pretty good.

In counting cornerbacks, I forgot Jonthan Banks and some others--there are actually more like seven or even eight who'd be an upgrade opposite Haden as the number TWO cornerback...which is not the number one...which is the complemetary corner matched against the offense's second-best reciever.  Two elite cornerbacks is better, of course, but not mandatory.

Gil Brandt's scenario of the Browns getting screwed out of their trade-down opportunity makes sense.  Not only is this par for the course, but also because teams needing a left tackle probably won't want to take any chances.  I can only hope that they'll stall until they see the second one drafted, and that the second one lasts longer than expected.

I've become a Dion Jordan fan myself.  And ex-wide reciever who covers well too?  And he's only had two years experience at the position himself!  Upside almost like Ansah's, but ready to go right now?  I'll take it.

I hope the rumors of San Fran wanting Milliner bad are true.  They're loaded with draft picks (and pricey talent), and could actually make a huge move to six.

And yeah, I'd take it.  I'd drop all the freaking way down there and grab a starting corner, safety, and guard (Long).  I said "and", not "or".  I shouldn't need to explain why...

Ok here's another reason why: There are FOUR OLB's in addition to Kruger on the current roster with a good chance to make an impact.  Use just a microscopic bit of imagination, ok?  Groves converted to OLB from DE last season.  (PS I couldn't care less if he went hooker-hunting).

The Browns don't need to "address wide reciever".  Why do you keep saying that?  What is it about Little, Gordon, Norwood, Benjamin, and Nelson that you think sucks?

I get that Benjamin is a little shrimp...so Austin isn't?

Why do you hate Jordan Cameron so much?  Why do you keep saying he can't block?  Is it because he was taken in the fourth round, and you can't imagine a fourth rounder ever being good?  

Yeah I won't say a negative thing about Jordan or Ansah if they get stuck at 6, because they're exceptional (and then Sheard could maybe get a second rounder--leaving good DEPTH at OLB dammit), but I still hope against hope for a trade down.

This draft is short on tens, but has lots and lots of eights and nines.  

The Browns might need a safety, could really use an athletic guard, depth at tight end, and yeah okay a superstar OLB.  QB is unsettled, but Weeden and Campbell could be great in this scheme...but the only certain NEED is cornerback.

If I were a Browns player, I'd tell other guys "Don't go to Cleveland unless you're a high draft pick.  It doesn't matter how good you are there.  You'll never get a chance."

PS Jim Miller was also a quarterback, who spent the week at the Senior Bowl, and still thinks Manuel is as good as anybody.  Jim Kelly thinks Geno Smith has all the tools, comparing him to Cam Newton.  (Really Manuel is more like Newton).

I predict that the Browns will draft somebody at six, or else trade down.  Take it to the bank.

Davone Bess?

This has GOT to be a Lombardi idea.  Davone Bess is a good player who makes great catches and falls down.

This would be a great way to get rid of one of those pesky draft picks, and to make sure Norwood and Wilson stay on the bench, and Benjamin's development is halted before he makes Heckert look even smarter.

And I'm sorry but I'm sick of this: The knucklehead who published the rumor said "the Browns obviously have a glaring need at wide reciever"...You, sir, are an idiot.

I need to calm down that's all.

Ok I'm back.  Sorry I called you an idiot.  You're just lazy and repeat old articles a lot without doing any home-work whatsoever.

Anyway I want to get this in now: Teams that blitze a lot need to run press/man coverage almost exclusively.  Milliner is the best overall cornerback in this draft, but if you throw out the zone stuff, Trufant, Hayden, and, umm...anyway there are three of them that are as good or better.

Line Hanford and Frank, the outside corners have to delay the reciever at the line, muscle them toward the sideline, and stick with them to make the QB hold the ball longer, or at least make more difficult and accurate throws.

I've also read some second-hand coach/scout opinions that this is a shallow draft for outside passrushers after Mingo (consensus third-best).  I think they are lying, or else the writer just made it up, but hope he's right because that would set up a trade-down of the tackles are gone...

And of course they should absolutely trade down with anybody who wants Milliner bad enough.

Bad News Browns

Most mock drafts are highly ignorable, but Gil Brandt mocks the exception.  Along with his didactic memory and well-known judgement, he has more connections to active GM's and scouts than probably anybody else.

This is why his accuracy in predicting drafts is almost legendary.

And here is what he predicts:

The Browns will (predictably) get screwed out of their trade-down, as the top three tackles will be gone in the top five.  Gil thinks that Ansah and Milliner will also be gone.

It feels personal, but Gil is a nice guy and doesn't hate the Browns.  It just appears to him that #3 and #4 will trade down.  They don't hate the Browns either...it just seems like a huge conspiracy.

Gil predicts that the Browns will draft Dion Jordan at 6.  This doesn't bother me--he's a perfect fit, and with Ansah gone, the best available--with zero red flags, and upside.

But...DAMMIT they just had to tease us with visions of another second-rounder and...well just here we go again.

This would leave us still in need of a cornerback, and with the remaining picks, they would miss out on the other elite ones.  Then, there might be a good guard like Long high in the third, but could they draft him and forego the best available cornerback?

Safety isn't as urgent.  There are candidates on the roster, plus a couple pretty good geezers still hanging around as free agents.

BUT there's Sheard and Rubin.  I love them both.  I'm hearing good things about Sheard's conversion to OLB and would be reluctant to peddle him given this new information...but if Jordan is the pick, I say go ahead.

I'm a big Rubin fan too, but he makes the most money, is the oldest, and is pretty short to play DE here--the tackles reach advantage will give him hell.  And if you think that either of these young veteran players wouldn't get a second rounder, you are in need of head-extraction surgery.

Some guys write about the "MY guy" thing, and assert that every new regime plans to replace each and every inherited player as a matter of course.  That's BS.  Players who match the new offensive and defensive systems can stick around if they're good enough and affordable enough.

Sheard has been a defensive end his whole life, and Rubin is a much better tackle/nose tackle than DE.

I'm surprised that Robertson is getting the first shot at ILB next to D'Qwell, but he made a point about the Pittsburgh inside backers.  They're listed at 240, which might more might not be accurate, but it's close enough.  Nor is Horton obliged to make an exact copy of LeBeau's system.

Robertson covers even better than D'Qwell, and I'm thinking he'd do a lot of that.  He's also a run-and-hit guy with good instincts.  He did blow a lot of tackles last season (failed to wrap up), but this is fixable--Horton won't tolerate it.

Well, with nickles and dimes being the default defenses in the NFL these days anyway, a real 3-4 look probably won't be practical on more than about 30% of the plays.  This is what Horton meant when he talked about multiple fronts.

I'm thinking that he wants his best coverage linebacker built into the base.  I'm also starting to suspect that the front 3 will seek penetration more than LeBeaus' defenses do.

If you recall, Rogers rote havoc as a 3-4 nose tackle.  The trouble was that he was freelancing, and opened up huge cutback lanes behind him.  The guards also just let him go by and overshoot the play, and went out to smash poor D'Qwell.

But penetration can work here as long as the other guys know about it in advance and know where the cutbacks are libel to be.  It's also important that the offense doesn't know where to expect it.  The offensive lineman sets up to engage a huge quick guy making a frontal assault, and when his guy shoots to his right or left instead, it's very hard to "un-plant" your feet and stay with him.

The threat of that makes it hard for them to target the linebackers--Taylor in your face can drive one guy back.  Taylor with leverage is in your backfield before you can react.  If a guard fires out at the linebacker, HE opens up a gap for the surprise-penetrator.

The reason I suspect this is that one of the inside linebackers might be coming right behind  the lineman, unblocked.  The center or guard tries to go with Taylor or whoever, and here comes Jackson or Robertson right through where he was standing a second ago.  This helps the Robertson thing make sense.  

INSIDE pressure is the best pressure.  

This might also be a reaction to the Read-option.  It's trading mass for speed/quickness.

But I'm just guessing.

Hope Gil is wrong--or that somebody who wants Smith bad is ready to deal.

Phil Simms on the Quarterbacks

General statements: Phil says that for a quarterback to be great, he has to show some big, aggressive throws on film.  He has to show that he has the guts and confidence to take a risk.  This sounds like Rich Gannon, who says about the exact same thing.  This is what Flacco, Kaepernick, Brady, etc. have in common.

Stipulation: Sometimes the system they play in inhibits this.

He also said that a quarterback needs to know when the game is over, and he can't save it anymore.  He has to take the dumpoffs and short throws.  He says that fans and media are (not a quote) ignorant, and always want to blame the quarterback for a loss, so it's a matter of survival for a guy in a hopeless game to pad his stats and hope for run-after-catch big plays.

That way, they see his high completion percentage and no interceptions and can't blame him for the loss.  He hates it when a game is out of hand and a quarterback starts making dumb throws.

I'll complete that: Prevent defenses take away all the deep stuff, and the chances of throwing an interception skyrocket.  It's actually just plain dumb to throw into what amounts to triple coverage.

Phil doesn't like "effort" throwers.  He looks hard at throwing motions, and says that some guys are natural throwers, with loose, smooth deliveries, and others are not.  Effort throwers get tired arms and injure themselves.

Effort thrower can be coached on their deliveries, but revert under pressure.  This is beyond me.  I can't see what he means, but assume he's right.

Phil also says that he ignores wins and losses, because a great quarterback is often stuck with a crappy team, and he wants you to know this: It's not always the QB's fault!

Phil on Geno Smith: Phil likes Smith.  He says that all his mechanical flaws are correctable.  He said that this is not a big thing: It's maybe twenty minutes of coaching and he's "fixed".  He's the only quarterback who did well from under center.

However, he says that in all his game films, he couldn't find any of those big, aggressive throws.

He wonders why Landry Jones is under the radar, because he's probably the most NFL-ready guy and has all the tools.  (Phil always mentions throwing off-balance as part of this.  He says that's big in the NFL because they're all over you all the time).

Pat Kirwin, who covered the Senior Bowl, responded to this by saying that he was great without pressure, but when pressured, he couldn't do anything--in Senior Bowl practices.

Phil replied that he wished he'd seen him in person, and was going by his game-tapes.  He said that in the games he saw, he handled pressure well.

Another guy mentioned that he did badly against better competition.  Phil stifled a hot retort, but had to say that he had a crappy offensive line, and no quarterback can save a badly overmatched team.  And he couldn't help but saying "I couldn't care less."  I'm not an ex-quarterback, but would have said the same thing, because it's common sense.

He likes Mike Glennon, but says that he should be a backup as a rookie.  But he likes him a lot.  He compares Glennon to Matt Ryan, who came from the same coach.  

He says my man EJ Manuel is not a natural thrower, and he didn't make any of the high-risk throws that Glennon and Jones made.

He's not very impressed by Barkley.

All the guys mentioned could run Turner's offense, and some could be there in the second or even third round.

That's all.