First of all, apparantly your secretary has accidentally blocked me from your email box, which is why I've got to get several freinds to foreward it to you. Considering how critical my advice is to you, you'd better get that straightened out.
Anyway, in my never-ending search of sleepers for you to draft in the last four rounds, I found a LOOLOO, boyee! This Chris Steuber guy on the Orange and Brown report had him on his all-defensive sleeper team. Of course, I investigated before passing anything along, since Steuber's expertise couldn't possibly approximate my own.
TREVOR SCOTT, DE, Buffalo (OLB here). This kid wasn't even invited to the combine, nor is he even listed--even for Buffalo--by Scout.com. The reasons are: Small college, only two years at position, size (FOR DE). Steuber projects him to go in the 4th or 5th round (and I get the feeling he isn't one of these guys who has 72 guys projected as first round picks.)
Scott was recruited as a tight end, and converted to DE in 2006. Obviously, this transition had to be tough, but he immediately got 45 tackles, 13.5 for loss, and 9 sacks. As you know, 45 tackles is more like an OLB number than a DE number.
Of course, you can't say much for his level of competition-big fish, little pond. Last season he got 46 tackles, 15 for loss, and 10 sacks, so we see patterns of consistancy and improvement. As you know, numbers will often decline for a prominant player on any team, as rival teams find ways to avoid or neutralize them. It's very likely that as a senior, Scott was being targetted and avoided, but he still wrought havoc.
Bonus: Scott looks like a movie star. Like that taller dad in "My Two Dads". Maybe he can sing, too!
But I digress. Despite getting dissed by the combine, he worked out at Buffalo's Pro Day (and I bet you were there in person!)
6'5", 256 lbs. Lanky, with room for growth. Won't matter a whole lot, because he benched 225 lbs. 32 times. Offensive linemen and DT's do those numbers, and this guy's arms are as long as theirs! How strong will he be at 265-270?
But wait, there's MORE! 4.57 40. 4.19 shirt shuttle. You're reading that right. 6.84 3-cone drill, and 33" vertical jump. No, there isn't a cornerback or safety with the same name--it was Scott who did all this.
Scott is projected as a DE only because he has such good height and room for growth into a 4-3 passrushing DE, but he'll be much BETTER as a 3-4 OLB. In a year or 2, he could easily weigh near 270 without losing speed or mobility. He obviously has the strength, quickness, and speed already.
Scott is intelligent and adaptable, as evidenced by his transition fron TE. He clearly has good natural instincts, as evidenced by the number of his tackles. And 25 negative plays in 12 games? Gimme a break!
Obviously, you can't expect to find an instant starter that low in the draft (although you might). Scott did play at a small school with crappy competition, and no doubt needs a lot of work on hand techniques and other stuff. By NFL standards, he's no doubt very raw and mistake-prone, so he might be one to three years away from making a full-time impact. Still, based on his potential alone, this is a worthy investment to insure continuity and depth.
However, think about this: Situational passrushing is not rocket science. He could be used in spots there fairly soon. Then, he was a tight end, and you saw his numbers, which show a very explosive, sudden player. He could man-up on most NFL TE's quickly, as well. This aint rocket science either. You just cover the guy, right? Raw talent. He's already there.
In fact...the more I think about it...I mean, if he can already man-cover, why couldn't he zone-cover? He IS pretty smart...if he got 46 tackles as a DE...can't he handle the run?
Maybe that's optimistic. But obviously, he could make an impact on any or all of the special teams units immediately.
Well, there's your 4th round pick, Phil! Well..of course there's some other guys from bigger schools you might lean towards if they're there, and I won't pick on you. But in terms of pure athleticism, none of these compares to Scott. He's quicker, faster, and stronger than all of them right now, and he has more upside as well.
Yeah...third and eight--put him in there and turn him loose. Let's see a tackle chase him around, or a 225 lb. RB play speedbump with him! 4.57/4.19 HA!!
Steuber also found Akron CB Brandon Carr, who it 6', 207, and clocked 4.34. He has all the tools, but was a gambler who both made and gave up big plays. He's projected in the 7th because of his small school and the fact that he only got 2 picks last season after 6 in 2006.
In the NFL he could play safety as well as CB. Maybe a nickel guy and special teamer as a rookie, here's another depth guy who in a year or three could emerge as one hell of a playa. Given your current CB situation, with Holly and McDonald so far competing for the second cornerback spot, you're thin behind these two, and for that matter could use more talent behind the safeties.
Given the prevalence of 3 and 4 WR sets in the NFL, Carr could immediately fit in well vs. the bigger recievers, situationally...
I like your safeties, including the third one which you got from Detroit. He's an old vet free safety best in coverage. Carr could learn from him, and is physicly much more a cover-2 safety who fits the scheme better.
I like Holly and McDonald, but who else have you got? Carr might well be better than anybody else you could have--might be of immediate help, and does have that upside. I mean, this kid actually has the raw talent to learn on the job this season, and return next season as a stong contender for a starting spot.
OK I've covered the 4th and 7th rounds for you. I'll get back to you with some other sleepers.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Saturday, November 24, 2007
New Prediction: 12-4
After further review, I now believe that the Browns will lose 4 games.
I haven't even looked into the Texans yet. I just know that they turn the ball over, and of late the Browns defense forces turnovers, so we got that going for us...
This is my first opportunity to observe a live game. I've come off the road and illegally parked in front of Gman's, and got it set up so that he, Bub, Gman and I will go to Eman's and watch the Browns annihilate the Texans.
Finally able to see some highlight replays on the internet, I've confirmed that Chud and co. recieved my emails and are doing as I'd instructed with the finess-blocking stuff. However, if Kevin Shaffer is out, they'll have to trim this down a little. Tucker, while still pretty mobile, is at this age more a mauler-type, and whoever plays right guard is not as agile as McKinney. Both can execute a finesse game--just not as well, and there could be some old-fashioned power-blocking on the right side.
I'm weary of the Jamal Lewis-bashing. I can't be definitive about the "slow to the hole" etc. stuff, as I haven't seen any games. But I doubt it. He came here with this baggage; this reputation. Any time an injured player leaves one system for another, and heals, and is 27 years old, and loses 15-20 lbs...
I am used to hearing the baggage mindlessly brought back every time he only gets 1-3 yards twice in a row. Lewis historicly, and expecially against the Browns, typicly gets stifled early. He'll average maybe 2.2 ypc, and then starts breaking loose for longer runs as the defense tires and he sees how they're reacting to him. When he gets that 100-plus yards, often half or more of them are gained on 1-4 runs.
Damage is damage, whether it's all at once or in evenly distributed pieces. The worst case with Lewis is about two yards. Rarely ever a stuff or a loss. Most teams will take that. Doesn't seem like it, but second and eight really is better than second and ten or twelve.
As for the future, however, I really, really, really wish that Jerome Harrison were allowed more opportunities. Even some of the aforementioned individuals repeated the propaganda that it was because he still needed to work on his blocking. And I repeated that Jason Wright got the nod over him because of his greater experience, and the fact that he's damn near a CLONE of Earnest Byner.
Hey, but the thing is, Harrison is a much-heavier Gregg Pruitt! He's the youngest and newest back, with massive upside. He's THE home-run hitter among the running backs, and he can line up anywhere, including wide.
...but maybe they think he'll fumble. That could be it.
The offense has great leadership in Winslow and, yes, Jason Wright. These guys come through when the chips are down and will not go down. Braylon Edwards can't be a leader til he stops dropping passes--regardless of how many great plays he makes. Through the first five games he proved that he could catch anything near him, and then he regressed. That's inexcusable. If he's on my team, he'd better not give me any advice, or dare to say anything about handling pressure.
I look foreward to more agressiveness on defense. The defensive line isn't bad, if the individual talents and skill-sets of the players are used right.
The issue is the system. It will never work consistantly until all three of them can take on and then shed blocks--especially the nose tackle. By design, it keeps the goons off the linebackers. Yeah, ok I get that. But Roye is chronicly injured and playing hurt. Smith is fine, but older and needs relief as well. The DE backups are much, much better one-gappers than two-gappers.
Shaun Smith is a very good player...INSIDE. Playing him at defensive end is dumb. His speed is limitted and he lacks reach. He's a leverage player who is best used at nose tackle. Rather than concede any part of the scheme in order to adapt to what talent is here, until the last couple games, they've doggedly stuck with the two-gap stuff.
Now, despite Smith being wasted at DE rather than where he belongs, at least they've finally, at long last, said "Ok. Just shoot the gaps and try to make a mess."
We know what the offense can do. We know what Cribbs will do. We know that the defense is a few pieces short of matching either, so the best thing to do is turn every down into a brawl.
This is what a smart boxer will do. If the other guy is too quick, and picks you apart on the fly--you close and trade punches. Maybe you can't get there--you take big shots on the way in. You get cut up and look bad. But it's all you got. If you stand there and let him control everything, you're not just chicken. You're stupid. And you'll get a lot stoopidder real soon.
This defense may not be Muhammud Ali yet, but Ernie Shaffers knocked out 56 guys and only lost about seven fights--to only the toughest of them. We can be Ali next season, after Savage does some more magic. For now, let's be the peanut.
BANZAI!
I haven't even looked into the Texans yet. I just know that they turn the ball over, and of late the Browns defense forces turnovers, so we got that going for us...
This is my first opportunity to observe a live game. I've come off the road and illegally parked in front of Gman's, and got it set up so that he, Bub, Gman and I will go to Eman's and watch the Browns annihilate the Texans.
Finally able to see some highlight replays on the internet, I've confirmed that Chud and co. recieved my emails and are doing as I'd instructed with the finess-blocking stuff. However, if Kevin Shaffer is out, they'll have to trim this down a little. Tucker, while still pretty mobile, is at this age more a mauler-type, and whoever plays right guard is not as agile as McKinney. Both can execute a finesse game--just not as well, and there could be some old-fashioned power-blocking on the right side.
I'm weary of the Jamal Lewis-bashing. I can't be definitive about the "slow to the hole" etc. stuff, as I haven't seen any games. But I doubt it. He came here with this baggage; this reputation. Any time an injured player leaves one system for another, and heals, and is 27 years old, and loses 15-20 lbs...
I am used to hearing the baggage mindlessly brought back every time he only gets 1-3 yards twice in a row. Lewis historicly, and expecially against the Browns, typicly gets stifled early. He'll average maybe 2.2 ypc, and then starts breaking loose for longer runs as the defense tires and he sees how they're reacting to him. When he gets that 100-plus yards, often half or more of them are gained on 1-4 runs.
Damage is damage, whether it's all at once or in evenly distributed pieces. The worst case with Lewis is about two yards. Rarely ever a stuff or a loss. Most teams will take that. Doesn't seem like it, but second and eight really is better than second and ten or twelve.
As for the future, however, I really, really, really wish that Jerome Harrison were allowed more opportunities. Even some of the aforementioned individuals repeated the propaganda that it was because he still needed to work on his blocking. And I repeated that Jason Wright got the nod over him because of his greater experience, and the fact that he's damn near a CLONE of Earnest Byner.
Hey, but the thing is, Harrison is a much-heavier Gregg Pruitt! He's the youngest and newest back, with massive upside. He's THE home-run hitter among the running backs, and he can line up anywhere, including wide.
...but maybe they think he'll fumble. That could be it.
The offense has great leadership in Winslow and, yes, Jason Wright. These guys come through when the chips are down and will not go down. Braylon Edwards can't be a leader til he stops dropping passes--regardless of how many great plays he makes. Through the first five games he proved that he could catch anything near him, and then he regressed. That's inexcusable. If he's on my team, he'd better not give me any advice, or dare to say anything about handling pressure.
I look foreward to more agressiveness on defense. The defensive line isn't bad, if the individual talents and skill-sets of the players are used right.
The issue is the system. It will never work consistantly until all three of them can take on and then shed blocks--especially the nose tackle. By design, it keeps the goons off the linebackers. Yeah, ok I get that. But Roye is chronicly injured and playing hurt. Smith is fine, but older and needs relief as well. The DE backups are much, much better one-gappers than two-gappers.
Shaun Smith is a very good player...INSIDE. Playing him at defensive end is dumb. His speed is limitted and he lacks reach. He's a leverage player who is best used at nose tackle. Rather than concede any part of the scheme in order to adapt to what talent is here, until the last couple games, they've doggedly stuck with the two-gap stuff.
Now, despite Smith being wasted at DE rather than where he belongs, at least they've finally, at long last, said "Ok. Just shoot the gaps and try to make a mess."
We know what the offense can do. We know what Cribbs will do. We know that the defense is a few pieces short of matching either, so the best thing to do is turn every down into a brawl.
This is what a smart boxer will do. If the other guy is too quick, and picks you apart on the fly--you close and trade punches. Maybe you can't get there--you take big shots on the way in. You get cut up and look bad. But it's all you got. If you stand there and let him control everything, you're not just chicken. You're stupid. And you'll get a lot stoopidder real soon.
This defense may not be Muhammud Ali yet, but Ernie Shaffers knocked out 56 guys and only lost about seven fights--to only the toughest of them. We can be Ali next season, after Savage does some more magic. For now, let's be the peanut.
BANZAI!
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Ray Who?
Dear Romeo and Todd:
Thank you so much for finally listening to me and doing like I suggested. I don't mind not getting the credit for it, or the fact that so far you haven't responded to my missives. Obviously, you got them, since you did some of it with the Squealers, and some with the Cravens.
Attack. Yes. You got six sacks, four turnovers, and six points. See how it works? Sure, ok, McGahee ripped off that long run for the TD, and the short passes stung a little, but you have to look at the big picture, see?
You have a problem on the defensive line. You don't have a nose tackle to fit your inflexible, no-matter-what scheme yet...except perhaps Shawn Smith, who you seem to think is a DE...and the guys behind Roye and Smith aren't really 2-gap DT-type players.
But finally, at long last, you saw the light. You turned them loose, and the offensive line and backs weren't sure who they were supposed to block. I could almost hear them "Waitaminnit, Robaire! You're not 'sposed to shoot past me like that! No fair!"
I don't have the TFL stats, but I think it's fair to estimate ten negative plays (not counting the four turnovers). These killed drives, or rendered the Cravens one-dimensional with long yardage. You tightened the coverage and used man sometimes.
Isn't this better than those icky twelve-yard cushions that any QB at all can easily exploit all up and down the field? Is gap control really so important that you have to give QB's ten or twelve seconds to select their targets, who are wearing the DB's out, and throw?
That's right--Tora Tora Tora banzai! I doubt that any of the linebackers are complaining about those big guys chasing them around...like Ray Lewis, who spent much of the game on his kiester courtesy of our own big guys (haha).
The Bengals...not this season, but last: They had similar personnel problems on their own defense. But they attacked. They ranked among the league's worst in most categories, but were among the top defenses in terms of turnovers and scoring. They made the most of a bad situation, and it worked.
You can get your big guys this off-season, but meanwhile keep letting them just blitze and penetrate and have fun. Everybody rightfully wants to canonize Josh Cribbs (who I earlier called "Wright" duh) for constantly putting the offense on a short field, two first downs out of field goal range. But see that? The defense did this, as well, with their turnovers!
Robaire Smith is quick, and can bull-rush. Ethan Kelly...is that who it was? Well I heard he did a great job this time...attacking. They couldn't spare anybody extra to put on Smith. And then, of course, it was Smith or whichever linebacker was coming off the edge.
And wasn't it nice that Boller didn't have his backs, and half the time his tight end to throw to because they were too busy chasing our guys around trying to protect him? See how that works, guys? Hope you learned something!
Sincerely, Wile E Coyote
Now for the corrections:
Josh Cribbs now returns kicks and punts, and is the leading special teams TACKLER. If he is used more than occasionally on offense as well, he will wear down and probably get maimed. Every time he's on the field, he sprints all-out, all over it, and he gets hit hard and a lot.
The inside linebackerS are not slow. Davis isn't a very effective blitzer. The other three guys all are. AndrA AndrrrAAAA...Davis will probably be traded this off-season. He's still a very good player, but the other guys are better. Davis would be damn good in the middle of a 4-3.
Anyway, don't generalize. The dumb always throw out the baby with the bathwater.
I'm starting to get persuaded by the guys on NFL Radio that Anderson should be given a big long-term contract soon, rather than franchising him next season. He's already proven himself, consistantly over a number of games. He's still young, with much room for improvement--even as he currently ranks among the league's elites.
Rumors of his immobility and inaccuracy were greatly exhagerrated...although he does still get into a bad throw zone occasionally. (By the way, what was all that "too mechanical" crap? What the hell did that mean? He didn't hop up and down like a little girl? Some of you guys need to get a life!)
The trade option is still there, and should he get hurt there's Quinn. Anderson is the bird in the hand, and they'd never get equal value with a first and the third round pick, probably from somebody in the bottom ten. QB is unique, and good ones are rare. WE KNOW: This one position can make or break you.
I liked what Quinn showed in preseason, and have every confidence in him, but we've been burned before. (No not Couch. Couch's arm broke down, that's all.) And based on what we've already seen of the still-young and inexperienced Anderson in real games--especially coming from behind--man, you just have to keep him.
That crunch-time thing: You can't coach it. Brian Sipe, with his pop-gun arm--he had it. Anderson is Sipe on steroids. These are the new Kardiac Kids--and nevermind that it's only because of a crappy defense.
And Braylon? He's made about ten great throws under that pressure, but nobody knows about it. Know why? DON'T MAKE ME COME DOWN THERE!
YOU STAND CORRECTED.
Now, as you know, I revise my predictions for the Browns win/loss record as more info comes in. My new prediction is 12-4.
I'm deep in enema territory (Cincinnati) as I write this. If I'm not there for Thanksgiving, eat without me.
Thank you so much for finally listening to me and doing like I suggested. I don't mind not getting the credit for it, or the fact that so far you haven't responded to my missives. Obviously, you got them, since you did some of it with the Squealers, and some with the Cravens.
Attack. Yes. You got six sacks, four turnovers, and six points. See how it works? Sure, ok, McGahee ripped off that long run for the TD, and the short passes stung a little, but you have to look at the big picture, see?
You have a problem on the defensive line. You don't have a nose tackle to fit your inflexible, no-matter-what scheme yet...except perhaps Shawn Smith, who you seem to think is a DE...and the guys behind Roye and Smith aren't really 2-gap DT-type players.
But finally, at long last, you saw the light. You turned them loose, and the offensive line and backs weren't sure who they were supposed to block. I could almost hear them "Waitaminnit, Robaire! You're not 'sposed to shoot past me like that! No fair!"
I don't have the TFL stats, but I think it's fair to estimate ten negative plays (not counting the four turnovers). These killed drives, or rendered the Cravens one-dimensional with long yardage. You tightened the coverage and used man sometimes.
Isn't this better than those icky twelve-yard cushions that any QB at all can easily exploit all up and down the field? Is gap control really so important that you have to give QB's ten or twelve seconds to select their targets, who are wearing the DB's out, and throw?
That's right--Tora Tora Tora banzai! I doubt that any of the linebackers are complaining about those big guys chasing them around...like Ray Lewis, who spent much of the game on his kiester courtesy of our own big guys (haha).
The Bengals...not this season, but last: They had similar personnel problems on their own defense. But they attacked. They ranked among the league's worst in most categories, but were among the top defenses in terms of turnovers and scoring. They made the most of a bad situation, and it worked.
You can get your big guys this off-season, but meanwhile keep letting them just blitze and penetrate and have fun. Everybody rightfully wants to canonize Josh Cribbs (who I earlier called "Wright" duh) for constantly putting the offense on a short field, two first downs out of field goal range. But see that? The defense did this, as well, with their turnovers!
Robaire Smith is quick, and can bull-rush. Ethan Kelly...is that who it was? Well I heard he did a great job this time...attacking. They couldn't spare anybody extra to put on Smith. And then, of course, it was Smith or whichever linebacker was coming off the edge.
And wasn't it nice that Boller didn't have his backs, and half the time his tight end to throw to because they were too busy chasing our guys around trying to protect him? See how that works, guys? Hope you learned something!
Sincerely, Wile E Coyote
Now for the corrections:
Josh Cribbs now returns kicks and punts, and is the leading special teams TACKLER. If he is used more than occasionally on offense as well, he will wear down and probably get maimed. Every time he's on the field, he sprints all-out, all over it, and he gets hit hard and a lot.
The inside linebackerS are not slow. Davis isn't a very effective blitzer. The other three guys all are. AndrA AndrrrAAAA...Davis will probably be traded this off-season. He's still a very good player, but the other guys are better. Davis would be damn good in the middle of a 4-3.
Anyway, don't generalize. The dumb always throw out the baby with the bathwater.
I'm starting to get persuaded by the guys on NFL Radio that Anderson should be given a big long-term contract soon, rather than franchising him next season. He's already proven himself, consistantly over a number of games. He's still young, with much room for improvement--even as he currently ranks among the league's elites.
Rumors of his immobility and inaccuracy were greatly exhagerrated...although he does still get into a bad throw zone occasionally. (By the way, what was all that "too mechanical" crap? What the hell did that mean? He didn't hop up and down like a little girl? Some of you guys need to get a life!)
The trade option is still there, and should he get hurt there's Quinn. Anderson is the bird in the hand, and they'd never get equal value with a first and the third round pick, probably from somebody in the bottom ten. QB is unique, and good ones are rare. WE KNOW: This one position can make or break you.
I liked what Quinn showed in preseason, and have every confidence in him, but we've been burned before. (No not Couch. Couch's arm broke down, that's all.) And based on what we've already seen of the still-young and inexperienced Anderson in real games--especially coming from behind--man, you just have to keep him.
That crunch-time thing: You can't coach it. Brian Sipe, with his pop-gun arm--he had it. Anderson is Sipe on steroids. These are the new Kardiac Kids--and nevermind that it's only because of a crappy defense.
And Braylon? He's made about ten great throws under that pressure, but nobody knows about it. Know why? DON'T MAKE ME COME DOWN THERE!
YOU STAND CORRECTED.
Now, as you know, I revise my predictions for the Browns win/loss record as more info comes in. My new prediction is 12-4.
I'm deep in enema territory (Cincinnati) as I write this. If I'm not there for Thanksgiving, eat without me.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Steelers vs. Browns Corrections
The defense is a legit concern, but I wonder if it's the players, or the playcalling. I truly don't know, because so far I can't trust ANY of the amatuerish and generalized descriptions I've read.
We have the cornerbacks for man coverage, and if you can press-cover the top two recievers (and have two linebackers and one safety able to stay with even the better TE's) You can send more people. Are they doing this, or is it just Peek, McGinnest, and/or Wimbley--only on third and longs?
Are the lighter, younger, faster DE's ever being allowed to shoot gaps or stunt, or are they expected to engage the big monsters and then try to get off the blocks? Is Smith going to play inside where he belongs, or outside where he's inadequate?
Bud Carson knew this: If you attack an offense they have to adapt to you. If you don't, they call the shots. If you attack you sometimes get burned, but MORE OFTEN get interceptions, tackles for losses, strip-sacks and fumbles. Even Marty, when he had Dixon, Minnifield, and Wright turned the dogs loose. His was mainly a two-gap defense, whether 3-4 or 4-3, but even Marty knew when to let them penetrate.
If they play it by the book against Pitt, Pitt will march up and down the field and wear them down again. The result is utterly predictable. If they ATTACK, who knows? Now, which gives the Browns the better chance to win DUHHH?
Ok but all this Pitt will get to Anderson stuff is dumb. This is not the same offensive line as the brand new one in week one. This offensive line all but shut down the Seahawks pass-rush, and athleticly is an ideal match for LeBeau's 3-4.
Further, Anderson was always more decisive and quicker than Frye, and now has a bunch more experience with these recievers. If Pitt's D has any weakness, it is it's secondary.
Don't worry about Jamal Lewis. Two, one, four, two, seven, eight, one, twelve...do you understand? And in this game he'll probably be an outlet--which places him on the edge.
The Browns will probably go 2-back a lot. I've been impressed by Chud using Heiden as a fullback sometimes. The backs are there to pick up the zone-blitzes. Often, they're reserves--if this athletic, quick offensive line can pick up the blitzers, those guys are uncovered recievers. Heiden can even go right up the gut, chipping as he goes.
Another thing is, throw out the mobility thing with Anderson. He's much faster than he looks, and Chud knows it and uses it. That's why near the goal line he'll roll out, and often keep it. Even under pressure, he's escaped or minimized sacks with a step or a dive.
Anderson uses Jurevicious. Frye didn't. Chud sends K2 deep. Nobody has been able to stop Edwards--double-coverage is a given, and he beats that too. K2 and Edwards are just as advertized--no defense has enough people to cover them. They have to treat Jurevicous as an afterthought! Can't press them, either, and they block downfield.
This is why the Browns pass first. The more-experienced Anderson checks down and fires quickly. Blitze all you want--if the ball is gone, it's gone.
And these are the new Kardiac kids! Nowadays, when they're down by 14 or 17 points, you're not changing the channel. You still really don't know who will win.
How many times has Anderson converted third and fourth and longs? How many times have the Browns had false starts, holding, etc. penalties in sequence and still got first downs? I swear it's just astonishing--who ever thought that Anderson would be THIS good, this soon? The worse it gets, the better he gets!
And I've got to say this about the defense: Man--when the game is on the line, they match Anderson. Third and inches. NOPE. 4th and inches. STUFF. Between the 20's they get pushed all over the field. They give up big plays, too. But in the red zone they get tough.
So it's not all bad. If you break the defense into phases, they're very good in short yardage and the red zone. They just suck everywhere else, is all.
And special teams. Maybe this will be the game Cribbs breaks one. Maybe he'll turn one of those great stops onto a fumble.
Everybody is raving about Pitt's offense, but in my opinion, the Browns offense is better. Maybe not by a lot, but better, and still improving. The Browns special teams are better, too.
...but they probably lose because of the defense. Dammit.
We have the cornerbacks for man coverage, and if you can press-cover the top two recievers (and have two linebackers and one safety able to stay with even the better TE's) You can send more people. Are they doing this, or is it just Peek, McGinnest, and/or Wimbley--only on third and longs?
Are the lighter, younger, faster DE's ever being allowed to shoot gaps or stunt, or are they expected to engage the big monsters and then try to get off the blocks? Is Smith going to play inside where he belongs, or outside where he's inadequate?
Bud Carson knew this: If you attack an offense they have to adapt to you. If you don't, they call the shots. If you attack you sometimes get burned, but MORE OFTEN get interceptions, tackles for losses, strip-sacks and fumbles. Even Marty, when he had Dixon, Minnifield, and Wright turned the dogs loose. His was mainly a two-gap defense, whether 3-4 or 4-3, but even Marty knew when to let them penetrate.
If they play it by the book against Pitt, Pitt will march up and down the field and wear them down again. The result is utterly predictable. If they ATTACK, who knows? Now, which gives the Browns the better chance to win DUHHH?
Ok but all this Pitt will get to Anderson stuff is dumb. This is not the same offensive line as the brand new one in week one. This offensive line all but shut down the Seahawks pass-rush, and athleticly is an ideal match for LeBeau's 3-4.
Further, Anderson was always more decisive and quicker than Frye, and now has a bunch more experience with these recievers. If Pitt's D has any weakness, it is it's secondary.
Don't worry about Jamal Lewis. Two, one, four, two, seven, eight, one, twelve...do you understand? And in this game he'll probably be an outlet--which places him on the edge.
The Browns will probably go 2-back a lot. I've been impressed by Chud using Heiden as a fullback sometimes. The backs are there to pick up the zone-blitzes. Often, they're reserves--if this athletic, quick offensive line can pick up the blitzers, those guys are uncovered recievers. Heiden can even go right up the gut, chipping as he goes.
Another thing is, throw out the mobility thing with Anderson. He's much faster than he looks, and Chud knows it and uses it. That's why near the goal line he'll roll out, and often keep it. Even under pressure, he's escaped or minimized sacks with a step or a dive.
Anderson uses Jurevicious. Frye didn't. Chud sends K2 deep. Nobody has been able to stop Edwards--double-coverage is a given, and he beats that too. K2 and Edwards are just as advertized--no defense has enough people to cover them. They have to treat Jurevicous as an afterthought! Can't press them, either, and they block downfield.
This is why the Browns pass first. The more-experienced Anderson checks down and fires quickly. Blitze all you want--if the ball is gone, it's gone.
And these are the new Kardiac kids! Nowadays, when they're down by 14 or 17 points, you're not changing the channel. You still really don't know who will win.
How many times has Anderson converted third and fourth and longs? How many times have the Browns had false starts, holding, etc. penalties in sequence and still got first downs? I swear it's just astonishing--who ever thought that Anderson would be THIS good, this soon? The worse it gets, the better he gets!
And I've got to say this about the defense: Man--when the game is on the line, they match Anderson. Third and inches. NOPE. 4th and inches. STUFF. Between the 20's they get pushed all over the field. They give up big plays, too. But in the red zone they get tough.
So it's not all bad. If you break the defense into phases, they're very good in short yardage and the red zone. They just suck everywhere else, is all.
And special teams. Maybe this will be the game Cribbs breaks one. Maybe he'll turn one of those great stops onto a fumble.
Everybody is raving about Pitt's offense, but in my opinion, the Browns offense is better. Maybe not by a lot, but better, and still improving. The Browns special teams are better, too.
...but they probably lose because of the defense. Dammit.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Brady Who?
What do we do? Now we have too many QBs!
Andrson had turned into a monster, and shows no sign of backsliding. But his agent will never consent to a long-term deal for any less than top dollar. And then, what if he gets hurt before the ink is dry?
Quinn showed great promise. It's ok to keep him parked on the bench for one or even two seasons, but longer? He's not making top 5 money. His deal is close to where he was actually drafted, so he's not very expensive. On the business side, I suppose you could now afford to sign Anderson longer-term, but if you break the bank to pay him, you undermine the trade option, and tell Quinn that he's a benchwarmer for the forseeable future.
It might be neccessary to make Anderson the franchis player with the high tender. That retains him for one season, gives the Browns the option to match any offer, and demands a first and third round pick of they lose him.
The team that drafts 30th could take advantage of this, of course. However, the Browns could still get a very good player, and probably a pretty good one in the third, as well...and still have a well-prepared Quinn ready to go.
I dunno...it's a nice problem to have, though. Savage did this, too. He knew Anderson from the Ravens, and snatched him when they tried to sneak him through waivers onto their practice squad. I doubt that Phil expected him to be this good this soon, though. Still, he knew something we didn't.
People who bash Savage are clueless. We just lost Jackson for a few weeks, and the low-round pick stepping in for him is in many ways better than he was.
The defense has sucked, but doesn't have to keep sucking. It might get better. The only problem is the line, and that stupid soft coverage...and lack of aggression...ah crap okbye
Andrson had turned into a monster, and shows no sign of backsliding. But his agent will never consent to a long-term deal for any less than top dollar. And then, what if he gets hurt before the ink is dry?
Quinn showed great promise. It's ok to keep him parked on the bench for one or even two seasons, but longer? He's not making top 5 money. His deal is close to where he was actually drafted, so he's not very expensive. On the business side, I suppose you could now afford to sign Anderson longer-term, but if you break the bank to pay him, you undermine the trade option, and tell Quinn that he's a benchwarmer for the forseeable future.
It might be neccessary to make Anderson the franchis player with the high tender. That retains him for one season, gives the Browns the option to match any offer, and demands a first and third round pick of they lose him.
The team that drafts 30th could take advantage of this, of course. However, the Browns could still get a very good player, and probably a pretty good one in the third, as well...and still have a well-prepared Quinn ready to go.
I dunno...it's a nice problem to have, though. Savage did this, too. He knew Anderson from the Ravens, and snatched him when they tried to sneak him through waivers onto their practice squad. I doubt that Phil expected him to be this good this soon, though. Still, he knew something we didn't.
People who bash Savage are clueless. We just lost Jackson for a few weeks, and the low-round pick stepping in for him is in many ways better than he was.
The defense has sucked, but doesn't have to keep sucking. It might get better. The only problem is the line, and that stupid soft coverage...and lack of aggression...ah crap okbye
Thursday, October 25, 2007
SCAPEGOAT ALERT!!!
Thanks to Vinnie the Fly, my top operative, I have a necktie candidate for you. (You'll need to provide your own ropes and torches).
And I was wr...wronn...incorrect. I had supposed that the defensive problems were Romeo's fault, and that he was inhibitting Grantham. After all, the defense was pretty good prior to the hand grenade rolling under the tent-flap last season. And when Romeo was the coordinator here under Butch Davis, I was driven insane by defensive backs playing like FIFTEEN YARDS behind recievers.
I WAS correct about my view (view: I listen on radio haha) of what's wrong. The lack of pressure on enema QB's, AND the frequency of enema running backs going wild are at least partly due to a passive scheme and passive play-calling.
Here is what one player...who shall remain nameless but can be immediately narrowed down to a member of the front seven--said--along with my comments sprinkled in:
“We were more aggressive last season, with less talent on the field", the OBR was told. "Our corners can cover, we have guys that can get to the quarterback... but when we are schemed out of the play, what can we do?
The opposition sees this and attacks. We are better than we are showing, but until the leash is taken off or Coach (Crennel) gets really involved again, we are going to have issues.”
If you hadn't been boycotting me, you would have read me asking for Bud Carson to please give Grantham a call, and bemoaning what I percieved as a lack of aggression.
This is a 3-4 defense, designed for aggression. Pittsburgh uses run-blitzes on probable runs, actually sending both inside linebackers through interior gaps. They force runs wide or blow them up, and if you try to pass they're in your face anyway. Clearly, I now know, the Browns don't.
As the defense has struggled early in the season, the most evident problem has been on the inability of the team to stop the run and prevent big plays in the passing game. While the defense was beaten over the top in the Browns first three games, the play of the defensive backfield has been somewhat improved in recent weeks.
The OBR is being told that changes might be in the works as the team's head coach, with several decades of experience as a defensive coordinator, begins to step in.
“The problem is, we have not fully committed to stopping the run. We show seven or eight up, but often we are backing off. I see some changes in the way we are going to play, as Coach (Crennel) has been more involved,” the source continued. “He (Crennel) likes an aggressive defensive, as long as the corners can cover"
And ours sure as hell can. Wright would do much better in man/press coverage than in the more complex zone scheme...with the huge, massive pads which makes you people in Oblivia bitch about how wide open guys are.
Bodden and Wright, and either safety--if allowed to--can man-cover tight ends.
Man coverage is what Hanford Dixon expected to see once Wright was drafted. Wright is a shut-down guy who can rely on his raw talent to stay on a guy, and Bodden has established himself as a top cover guy.
Quick-hitters will burn zone coverage, but are not possible with well-executed man coverage. The QB has to either hold the ball for five seconds, or else find a tertiary or even bail-out reciever. This is why with Dixon/Minniefield, Marty flooded enemy backfields with frequent blitzes. Wright played center field and came up hard and fast for short stuff or runs, and Rockins remained shallow and often keyed the running back, and it worked beautifully.
Antwan Peek is wasted unless he is attacking the backfield. Every other player on the defense can blitze aty any given time.
Grantham. Read that? This guy wants Romeo to step in and turn the dawgs loose! It's been Grantham all along, making them sit back trying to react to what offenses are doing. With these guys? We lack depth on the D-line? No we don't. I mean, if you want the two young guys to stand there locking up a guard or tackle each and then try to make a play, we do. But if you want those two to attack and penetrate, we don't, see?
It doesn't matter a whole lot if a linebacker is engulfed by a guard if the DE has just strip-sacked the QB. Don't you know that offenses have to get hats on everybody anyway? Why not make them CHASE the DE's?
Sure, You give up some runs on cut-backs and the DE's get out of position sometimes, but this defense has the speed and talent to turn every series into a slugfest if they attack. Oh...burn us for nine yards, huh? First down--ouch. SACK second and sixteen how ya like that? Gonna run it again?
Chud seems to be a real genius and another brilliant move by Savage. This offense is among the lead leaders in scoring, and hasn't even fully implemented the (thank God) finesse blocking scheme yet. As it stands, this PASSIVE, leashed, defense is maybe the worst in the NFL.
Can it get worse? Don't think so. Would sending at least four and sometimes five or six hurt? Hell no. Want to stop the run? Nail the running back at the hand-off. Teams have a hard time running on second and thirteen.
Todd? YOU STAND CORRECTED.
And I was wr...wronn...incorrect. I had supposed that the defensive problems were Romeo's fault, and that he was inhibitting Grantham. After all, the defense was pretty good prior to the hand grenade rolling under the tent-flap last season. And when Romeo was the coordinator here under Butch Davis, I was driven insane by defensive backs playing like FIFTEEN YARDS behind recievers.
I WAS correct about my view (view: I listen on radio haha) of what's wrong. The lack of pressure on enema QB's, AND the frequency of enema running backs going wild are at least partly due to a passive scheme and passive play-calling.
Here is what one player...who shall remain nameless but can be immediately narrowed down to a member of the front seven--said--along with my comments sprinkled in:
“We were more aggressive last season, with less talent on the field", the OBR was told. "Our corners can cover, we have guys that can get to the quarterback... but when we are schemed out of the play, what can we do?
The opposition sees this and attacks. We are better than we are showing, but until the leash is taken off or Coach (Crennel) gets really involved again, we are going to have issues.”
If you hadn't been boycotting me, you would have read me asking for Bud Carson to please give Grantham a call, and bemoaning what I percieved as a lack of aggression.
This is a 3-4 defense, designed for aggression. Pittsburgh uses run-blitzes on probable runs, actually sending both inside linebackers through interior gaps. They force runs wide or blow them up, and if you try to pass they're in your face anyway. Clearly, I now know, the Browns don't.
As the defense has struggled early in the season, the most evident problem has been on the inability of the team to stop the run and prevent big plays in the passing game. While the defense was beaten over the top in the Browns first three games, the play of the defensive backfield has been somewhat improved in recent weeks.
The OBR is being told that changes might be in the works as the team's head coach, with several decades of experience as a defensive coordinator, begins to step in.
“The problem is, we have not fully committed to stopping the run. We show seven or eight up, but often we are backing off. I see some changes in the way we are going to play, as Coach (Crennel) has been more involved,” the source continued. “He (Crennel) likes an aggressive defensive, as long as the corners can cover"
And ours sure as hell can. Wright would do much better in man/press coverage than in the more complex zone scheme...with the huge, massive pads which makes you people in Oblivia bitch about how wide open guys are.
Bodden and Wright, and either safety--if allowed to--can man-cover tight ends.
Man coverage is what Hanford Dixon expected to see once Wright was drafted. Wright is a shut-down guy who can rely on his raw talent to stay on a guy, and Bodden has established himself as a top cover guy.
Quick-hitters will burn zone coverage, but are not possible with well-executed man coverage. The QB has to either hold the ball for five seconds, or else find a tertiary or even bail-out reciever. This is why with Dixon/Minniefield, Marty flooded enemy backfields with frequent blitzes. Wright played center field and came up hard and fast for short stuff or runs, and Rockins remained shallow and often keyed the running back, and it worked beautifully.
Antwan Peek is wasted unless he is attacking the backfield. Every other player on the defense can blitze aty any given time.
Grantham. Read that? This guy wants Romeo to step in and turn the dawgs loose! It's been Grantham all along, making them sit back trying to react to what offenses are doing. With these guys? We lack depth on the D-line? No we don't. I mean, if you want the two young guys to stand there locking up a guard or tackle each and then try to make a play, we do. But if you want those two to attack and penetrate, we don't, see?
It doesn't matter a whole lot if a linebacker is engulfed by a guard if the DE has just strip-sacked the QB. Don't you know that offenses have to get hats on everybody anyway? Why not make them CHASE the DE's?
Sure, You give up some runs on cut-backs and the DE's get out of position sometimes, but this defense has the speed and talent to turn every series into a slugfest if they attack. Oh...burn us for nine yards, huh? First down--ouch. SACK second and sixteen how ya like that? Gonna run it again?
Chud seems to be a real genius and another brilliant move by Savage. This offense is among the lead leaders in scoring, and hasn't even fully implemented the (thank God) finesse blocking scheme yet. As it stands, this PASSIVE, leashed, defense is maybe the worst in the NFL.
Can it get worse? Don't think so. Would sending at least four and sometimes five or six hurt? Hell no. Want to stop the run? Nail the running back at the hand-off. Teams have a hard time running on second and thirteen.
Todd? YOU STAND CORRECTED.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Intra-game I-told-you-sos
Too bad only people who don't know me ever read this stuff.
Anyway, Harrison just tore up Miami's defense. Wright is doing the same, of course, in his different way--but the point is, the people who were shoveling dirt on Jerome are dummies, and I am not. I told you he'd play and make plays, and this he's doing.
In reality...which is in a whole different zip code from Oblivia--the Wright-Harrison thing is the same as the Anderson-Quinn thing. Wright (who reminds me a lot of Earnest Byner, now that I've seen him a little) is a very good all-purpose back. Fast, but not very. Strong, but not very. Quick and elusive, but not very. Guts, intelligence, heart. Runs sideways or backwards, jumps, dives, squirms and wiggles for every extra inch. LOVE the guy!
Harrison was initially drafted as a change-of-pace, third down back type. He was specificly chosen for his speed and recieving (and returning) abilities. But good GM's like Savage think ahead. That means he anticipates what Harrison might be in 2 or 3 years. DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, and about ten other "third-down" backs started this way.
Harrison returned in his second season at over 210 lbs. This instantly changed everything. You in Oblivia didn't even register this, but Phil and I did. The dude was unstoppable in college as a shrimp, and came equipped with NFL recieving skills. He can go all the way from any point on the field, and even as a shrimp proved in preseason as a rookie that he could go up the gut.
At over 210, his upside is nearly unlimitted. He would have displaced Wright this season had he clearly outperformed him (he didn't--it was pretty much a tie). Also, he fumbled, more than once. This was decisive.
But most running backs who fumble early in their carreers get better at protecting the ball, and Harrison should. Once he proves this...over time...he'll move ahead of Wright, and most likely is Jamal Lewis's heir apparant.
I do really like Jason Wright, and would hate to see him go, or even get kept on the bench. I'd keep both him and Jerome, and work in more 2-back...but this is for down the road.
Right now, the Miami game is 24-3 and turning into a blowout. Brown has made a couple plays, but couldn't accomplish much before the score forced Miami into pass-mode. (The defense did a great job.)
Now, are they going to put Quinn in and get him some valuable real-game experience? Unless Miami is able to close the gap significantly, I sure would, for the whole second half. Miami has just marched to the 24 and got a penalty vs. what I'm pretty sure had to be a prevent defense.
I don't mind the prevent, but you can get pretty rediculous with it--like playing TEN YARDS behind the recievers. Here...they just got six yards, but needed 24. That's how the nickel works. The clock is still ticking--they just got eight more yards, took it to 2 minutes, and still need more for a first down. Use up the clock with a lead. The prevent works, when well-executed.
The thing is those huge pads. Bodden and Wright have the recovery speed to easily play less than five yards behind the recievers, and be in position to pick off an inaccurate throw, knock the ball loose, or at least make sure to nail the reciever as he catches it. There goes 16 more yards, and they're inches from a first down.
I can't see it, but I'll bet you nobody was close to that guy. Don't blame players. Blame coaches. Everybody was probably in coverage (so no pass-rush), and miles away from everybody. Dammit TD Miami. Guess this is the prevent-the-win (and Quinn) defense.
Still 14 points is a good lead. They can run and pass short now. Alternate Harrison and Wright.
They should be able to score some more, and maybe we can still get Quinn in for a quarter.
Unless Romeo's Martonian tendancies prefent him from putting the kid in.
Wright gets 13 yards. You know, this is the blocking. The offensive line is clearly opening nice holes. Earlier, on a Harrison run, Doug and Jim talked about how long he waited for the blocks to set up. A back can't let himself do that unless he trusts those guys...
Yeah they're getting close to a field goal with 15 seconds left. I'm glad they didn't just sit on it. Go for the throat, I always say sometimes. Kick them when they're down. More points. Beat up that defense. Haha! Take Edwards out? There's K2 haha! Joey who?
Incomplete-field goal ok. Better than what the Browns used to do. Run-run, milk that clock, go in with just the 14 points. With 14 points, Miami might have been able to use Ronnie Brown more, but needing three scores and at least 2 TD's in a half even to tie, they'll just have to throw now.
Anyway, Harrison just tore up Miami's defense. Wright is doing the same, of course, in his different way--but the point is, the people who were shoveling dirt on Jerome are dummies, and I am not. I told you he'd play and make plays, and this he's doing.
In reality...which is in a whole different zip code from Oblivia--the Wright-Harrison thing is the same as the Anderson-Quinn thing. Wright (who reminds me a lot of Earnest Byner, now that I've seen him a little) is a very good all-purpose back. Fast, but not very. Strong, but not very. Quick and elusive, but not very. Guts, intelligence, heart. Runs sideways or backwards, jumps, dives, squirms and wiggles for every extra inch. LOVE the guy!
Harrison was initially drafted as a change-of-pace, third down back type. He was specificly chosen for his speed and recieving (and returning) abilities. But good GM's like Savage think ahead. That means he anticipates what Harrison might be in 2 or 3 years. DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, and about ten other "third-down" backs started this way.
Harrison returned in his second season at over 210 lbs. This instantly changed everything. You in Oblivia didn't even register this, but Phil and I did. The dude was unstoppable in college as a shrimp, and came equipped with NFL recieving skills. He can go all the way from any point on the field, and even as a shrimp proved in preseason as a rookie that he could go up the gut.
At over 210, his upside is nearly unlimitted. He would have displaced Wright this season had he clearly outperformed him (he didn't--it was pretty much a tie). Also, he fumbled, more than once. This was decisive.
But most running backs who fumble early in their carreers get better at protecting the ball, and Harrison should. Once he proves this...over time...he'll move ahead of Wright, and most likely is Jamal Lewis's heir apparant.
I do really like Jason Wright, and would hate to see him go, or even get kept on the bench. I'd keep both him and Jerome, and work in more 2-back...but this is for down the road.
Right now, the Miami game is 24-3 and turning into a blowout. Brown has made a couple plays, but couldn't accomplish much before the score forced Miami into pass-mode. (The defense did a great job.)
Now, are they going to put Quinn in and get him some valuable real-game experience? Unless Miami is able to close the gap significantly, I sure would, for the whole second half. Miami has just marched to the 24 and got a penalty vs. what I'm pretty sure had to be a prevent defense.
I don't mind the prevent, but you can get pretty rediculous with it--like playing TEN YARDS behind the recievers. Here...they just got six yards, but needed 24. That's how the nickel works. The clock is still ticking--they just got eight more yards, took it to 2 minutes, and still need more for a first down. Use up the clock with a lead. The prevent works, when well-executed.
The thing is those huge pads. Bodden and Wright have the recovery speed to easily play less than five yards behind the recievers, and be in position to pick off an inaccurate throw, knock the ball loose, or at least make sure to nail the reciever as he catches it. There goes 16 more yards, and they're inches from a first down.
I can't see it, but I'll bet you nobody was close to that guy. Don't blame players. Blame coaches. Everybody was probably in coverage (so no pass-rush), and miles away from everybody. Dammit TD Miami. Guess this is the prevent-the-win (and Quinn) defense.
Still 14 points is a good lead. They can run and pass short now. Alternate Harrison and Wright.
They should be able to score some more, and maybe we can still get Quinn in for a quarter.
Unless Romeo's Martonian tendancies prefent him from putting the kid in.
Wright gets 13 yards. You know, this is the blocking. The offensive line is clearly opening nice holes. Earlier, on a Harrison run, Doug and Jim talked about how long he waited for the blocks to set up. A back can't let himself do that unless he trusts those guys...
Yeah they're getting close to a field goal with 15 seconds left. I'm glad they didn't just sit on it. Go for the throat, I always say sometimes. Kick them when they're down. More points. Beat up that defense. Haha! Take Edwards out? There's K2 haha! Joey who?
Incomplete-field goal ok. Better than what the Browns used to do. Run-run, milk that clock, go in with just the 14 points. With 14 points, Miami might have been able to use Ronnie Brown more, but needing three scores and at least 2 TD's in a half even to tie, they'll just have to throw now.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)