With all the excitement over the Cavs championship, it's been tough to find anything to write about, except...
Weren't you shaking your head and giving up after game 4? And then when they got to game seven, weren't you expecting them to find some way to lose?
I'm still in a state of shock. I mean, this is still Cleveland, right? Right?
Anyway today I finally found some dumbassitude to annihilate. Put on your juror hat.
Pat McNanoman asked beat writers for the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals if they thought that the Browns signing RG3 was a good idea.
Nobody who says it wasn't is dumb, okay? I'm still not sure myself.
But the guy from Pittsburgh (Jeremy Fowler, who is actually an insightful and objective writer...usually) just took a stupid pill.
He was fine in wondering about whether a trade-up for Goff would have been wiser, but then he says that with the current roster, only a truly elite quarterback would have a chance anyway.
Let's see here: The problem is lack of supporting talent. So trading up for Goff might have been better than drafting Rodney Colemanfield, two offensive linemen, a tight end, and three more wide receivers.
...and now that the Browns did add a lethal playmaker and several more reliable, productive skill players to Rodney Johnsonfield, the next Browns quarterback still won't have any help.
In other words, Jeremy just assumes that not only will every new offensive player crap out, but Duke Johnson doesn't count.
And I didn't even mention Crowell or Barnidge.
Jeremy isn't an idiot, but was idiotic here.
Coley Harvey (Bengals) knows Hue Jackson well, and thinks that RG3 will work out, as Hue knows how to use him.
Coley reminded me of something I had forgotten: The system he used with Andy Dalton used read-option and other plays which suit RG3 even better. Hue won't need to change a lot.
Jamison Hensley (Ravens) was even worse than Jeremy Fowler. Once again for him Duke Johnson and Corey Coleman aren't playmakers and Barnidge doesn't exist.
Jamison is worse because he thinks there's a chance that the Browns could go winless.
That's almost impossible, since they get to play Jamison's team twice, and might sweep them, because they have MORE playmakers than the Ravens do.
And here we go again with that "playmaker" cliche. Its almost as bad as "utilize". And different people have different definitions.
Barnidge could be called one. He can't score from anywhere on the field, but again and again he comes through in the clutch, makes spectacular catches, and scores touchdowns. Are "playmakers" allowed to be reliable?
Corey Coleman hasn't proved anything yet, but isn't it pretty stupid to assume he won't? He's already one of the fastest players in the NFL and he outjumped almost everybody else too. He's a freak, and he can't be a playmaker?
Duke Johnson HAS proven something to everybody except Jamison and Jeremy, and did it as a rookie. Now he's not a playmaker either?
Rashard Higgins was a playmaker in college, as he has superb run-after-catch ability. Nobody doubts that he will contribute quickly and become a starter fairly early in his career.
Who do you need to bribe to be a playmaker? How many playmakers do you need?
Derrick Anderson went to the Pro Bowl with Edwards and a tight end. Can you name a team that has three?
In summation, what Jamison and Jeremy just said was utterly senseless garbage.
I rest my case.
Now, if you want to read a guy who thinks with his brain, try this. This guy digs deep for fantasy sleepers, and I believe pegged those on the current roster.
Peter Smith also wrote this great article projecting the futures of the Browns 2015 draft picks remaining on this roster. Without prejudice or bias.
And with great insight, as I learned some things from this article.
For one thing, Nate Orchard was matched up against little guys when he got his two sacks vs the 49ers. I've been overrating him based on unfiltered statistics.
Not that Orchard isn't a good player by any means. Pete says he still needs to work on stopping the run, but was surprisingly good in coverage.
This makes both Mingo and Ogbah stronger contenders than I'd thought.
Peter says that Erving and Shelton were both big fish in little ponds in college, and tended to just overpower opponents. They were rudely awakened by NFL competition.
He and I know that both will have been working hard on their techniques, and are being coached up. Interestingly, Pete gets into the weeds a bit in talking about ankle flexibility and strengthened glutes...I really like this writer.
Permabashers won't like this article, because Peter Smith describes some pretty good players. Even though they were drafted by Ray Farmer, who was the worst GM in the history of sports. Chuh.
And thank you, Peter, for pointing out the attack oriented Horton vs the read/react Pettine schemes! And for agreeing with me that Xavier Cooper can do a lot more this year.
So there is intelligent life among sportswriters. I am not alone.
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Friday, June 17, 2016
Cleveland Browns P--- Poor Punditry Corrections
First, NFL Radio's Mike Nolan (former Chiefs GM) might be the dumbest smart guy I've ever heard.
In the "Do as I say not as I do" discussion about how to build a team, he talks about giving coaches time. He listed several examples, and when he got to the Browns, he said Hue Jackson should get five years because of the terrible mess he inherits.
The mess includes Haden, Thomas, Duke, Barnidge, the two guards, Shelton, Orchard, Kruger...all the draft picks--
I'm sick of repeating all this stuff just do some freaking homework nimrod!
Five years? Really? Since the salary cap and free agency the time frame for rebuilding dropped to 2-3 years.
Special teams takes one off season. Rebuilding teams tend to draft high for at least the first two seasons, and if they draft well, they will turn up three to five contributors/eventual starters in each draft.
Systems change, and so do veteran players. Each new coach picks veteran free agents who best fit their systems to accelerate the transition.
A local writer wrote a decent article asking if Hue Jackson could fix the quarterback problem.
But he described McCown as "adequate". What a load of crap! He did what he did without a running game, Travis Benjamin as his top receiver, playing from behind and with serious injuries!
You point to his wins and losses? Aaron Rodgers wouldn't have won any more games under the same circumstances. How lazy.
And this is a Memorex Moron. He closes out by wondering if any quarterback can get it done considering the Browns lack of playmakers.
This guy reads everybody else's stuff, and won't acknowledge the existence of Corey Coleman, Duke Johnson, Gary Barnidge, Pryor/Gordon etc until somebody points them out for him.
The Patriots have Gronk, Edelman, and...umm...Ok well Denver had uh...The Steelers had Brown, that running back, and...
Wow and here I thought you needed at least five playmakers or something!
Just shut up. No no, you're done. Just go home. "Playmakers" man I'm sick of that expression. And people who write without thinking, and in cliches.
:(!@$&%¡¿%!?!!
Now THIS is a thoughtful, intelligent article. This fantasy football writer isn't kind to the homies, but I can't argue with him. The guy really did his homework and was objective. That's all I ask!
I don't like what reporters have said about how RG3 has looked, either, but hey--they saw what they saw! Okay!
Just think with your brain!
In the "Do as I say not as I do" discussion about how to build a team, he talks about giving coaches time. He listed several examples, and when he got to the Browns, he said Hue Jackson should get five years because of the terrible mess he inherits.
The mess includes Haden, Thomas, Duke, Barnidge, the two guards, Shelton, Orchard, Kruger...all the draft picks--
I'm sick of repeating all this stuff just do some freaking homework nimrod!
Five years? Really? Since the salary cap and free agency the time frame for rebuilding dropped to 2-3 years.
Special teams takes one off season. Rebuilding teams tend to draft high for at least the first two seasons, and if they draft well, they will turn up three to five contributors/eventual starters in each draft.
Systems change, and so do veteran players. Each new coach picks veteran free agents who best fit their systems to accelerate the transition.
A local writer wrote a decent article asking if Hue Jackson could fix the quarterback problem.
But he described McCown as "adequate". What a load of crap! He did what he did without a running game, Travis Benjamin as his top receiver, playing from behind and with serious injuries!
You point to his wins and losses? Aaron Rodgers wouldn't have won any more games under the same circumstances. How lazy.
And this is a Memorex Moron. He closes out by wondering if any quarterback can get it done considering the Browns lack of playmakers.
This guy reads everybody else's stuff, and won't acknowledge the existence of Corey Coleman, Duke Johnson, Gary Barnidge, Pryor/Gordon etc until somebody points them out for him.
The Patriots have Gronk, Edelman, and...umm...Ok well Denver had uh...The Steelers had Brown, that running back, and...
Wow and here I thought you needed at least five playmakers or something!
Just shut up. No no, you're done. Just go home. "Playmakers" man I'm sick of that expression. And people who write without thinking, and in cliches.
:(!@$&%¡¿%!?!!
Now THIS is a thoughtful, intelligent article. This fantasy football writer isn't kind to the homies, but I can't argue with him. The guy really did his homework and was objective. That's all I ask!
I don't like what reporters have said about how RG3 has looked, either, but hey--they saw what they saw! Okay!
Just think with your brain!
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
I Underrated the Ravens: Self-Correction
Ozzie Newsome is up there with John Elway as a nemesis for me.
In earlier blogs, I said the Ravens will suck this season. I was wrong. It takes too long to go back and delete all that stuff, so I'll just confess to being lazy and presumptuous like writers I bash and write a self-correction.
The Ravens DID lose some talent this off season, and were limited in what they could do in free agency by their cap.
But I forgot a few things, like Crockett Gilmore, and the newly acquired Ben Watson, and even Maxx Williams. Gilmore can still be a weapon. Williams and Watson are good in-line blockers. Their tight ends should be pretty good this season, and they can go two-tight end and get physical in the running game.
They got a real stud left tackle in Stanley in the first round, and he was the best run-blocker of all the left tackles, and some say the best overall too.
Happily, he isn't quite a finished product. It's possible they put him at right tackle initially, but more likely he'll go right to left, and hopefully make some early mistakes.
But then that bastid Ozzie had to go and draft OLB Corea. AND DE/OLB Bronson Kaufusi dammit! And later an interior defensive lineman who is pretty good too.
This is infuriating. Ok Correa has a few warts and needs refinement, but is an athletic freak. He might not be too much of a pain in the ass at first, but eventually will be.
Kaufusi is another story, as my regular readers know. Unlike Correa, he can immediately play defensive end in any 4-man set. He can definitely get after the quarterback, is not soft on the run, and just needs work on standing up and covering in more than a simple zone.
Fortunately, the Ravens still don't have a great wide receiver crew. Mike Wallace is a deep threat, but that's about it for him and the guy they drafted.
Kamar Aiken is turning into a lethal weapon, but if you think Gramps Smith will come back off his injury anything like he was, you are delusional.
Two of their running backs are Terrence West and Trent Richardson. I'm not laughing as hard as most of you are about this, since they now have a lot of blocking muscle, but it's still valid to question their talent at this position.
On balance, the Ravens are indeed scarier than I said they were, but not in the same zip code as the Steelers or Bengals, and still not better than the Browns either.
Ogbah is better than both their new outside linebackers, and Hassan is better than Kaufusi. The Browns wide receivers and pass-catching tight ends are better, as are both running backs...maybe the top THREE running backs.
The Browns' defensive line should be better and deeper, and the inside linebackers too.
The Browns are just LOADED at outside linebacker now, too, including one ex-Raven and Ogbah, who has none of Correa's limitations. (Suggs enters year fifteen stop it. Just stop it.)
Now I think Gilbert will emerge, Haden will be his old self, Campbell will be a stud, the Browns are eyeball deep in nickel and dime coverage guys, so the Browns secondary should also be superior.
The Ravens LOST one of the best guards in the NFL to free agency, and despite Stanley shouldn't have a better offensive line.
Notable here is Griffin and Kessler signing up with Tom House for mechanical tweakage. Neither of them needs a lot of that; they're both pretty sound.
But House isn't a football guy. I'm glad he says "rotational" as part of what the explanation for what he does.
We all think we can throw as soon as we learn how to do it, but we're wrong. We can throw harder, farther, and more accurately if we're fine-tuned.
Some of the same principles apply to boxing. Rotation is verily the key element. That's the turning of your upper body around the axis of the spine.
Where your feet are matters, and whether on your heels or toes, and certainly it's a whole-body motion beginning at your feet, but the most important part is the last part: The upper body. That's where the extra "zip" and accuracy come from.
That's also how Joe Montana or John Elway could deliver strikes while floating through the air.
Anyway, of more significance is the fact that Corey Coleman is going there with them. I'm still hoping that Pryor and the other receivers will go too, but if they work with Randy Moss I guess that's okay too.
Coleman is being really smart here. He'll develop chemistry with both RG3 and the potential future starter. House might not be a football guy, but he'll for sure have him running every route (RG3 will make sure of that).
This is significant. It matters.
The Browns wide receivers should be better, overall, than the Ravens even in game one.
Quarterback is naturally the critical thing, and we have to give Big Bird the nod here. I never said he wasn't really good--just that he's not as good as Big Ben (or those most people rate above him).
RG3+Hue Jackson is potential. Some of us dare to anticipate good things, but quarterback is way tougher to project than wide receiver (Pryor).
If you think that all Hue needs to do is exactly what Shanahan did, you're wrong, because every NFL defense has found answers to that.
However...Hue Jackson is a leader, not a follower. RG3 is actually a really smart guy, and wiser now. I can't help but think that even if RG3 isn't the sensation he was as a rookie, he will be pretty good, and can win in crunch time, with his legs if necessary.
I know that Ray Farmer and others have projected McCown as the starter. Right now he IS the best quarterback.
But Farmer was talking about Hue's "system", so ex-linebacker or no, he clearly doesn't get it. If Hue has an ideal quarterback, it's everybody else's: Andrew Luck.
But Hue can and will use anybody. RG3 was his signing, and the 6'1" Kessler was his draft pick. Andy Dalton wasn't his "type", either. He backed off on Wentz, who allegedly is.
Ray Farmer, a guy I defended extensively and will still defend, also seems incapable of long-term strategic thinking here:
He seems to think the number one thing is to win games asap. He's wrong.
The number one objective is to reach the Superbowl in 2018, or take a shot in 2017 if we're ahead of schedule.
The number two objective is winning the Division. It's NOT GOING TO HAPPEN in 2016. The PLAYERS know it, as well as the coaches and front office and all us fans.
So even if McCown gives the Browns the best chance to win game one, if it's even close RG3 will start anyway. He is younger, with more upside. If he plays well, he can be traded for a high pick, or re-signed long term.
McCown is on borrowed time. All one or two more wins in 2016 does is lower their 2017 draft picks, and guarantee that RG3 has zero trade value.
But I digress: Give the quarterback nod to Flacco, but remember the other 21 players. Despite my maia culpa, the Browns still have more talent. The Browns quarterback will not be asked to carry the team.
I don't give Harbaugh the nod over Jackson either. I know Harbaugh is a great coach, but rate Jackson right there with him.
So in conclusion, I repeat: The Browns should SWEEP the Ravens in 2016, and Yoda needs to move to Baltimore and tell those fans to curb their enthusiasm.
In earlier blogs, I said the Ravens will suck this season. I was wrong. It takes too long to go back and delete all that stuff, so I'll just confess to being lazy and presumptuous like writers I bash and write a self-correction.
The Ravens DID lose some talent this off season, and were limited in what they could do in free agency by their cap.
But I forgot a few things, like Crockett Gilmore, and the newly acquired Ben Watson, and even Maxx Williams. Gilmore can still be a weapon. Williams and Watson are good in-line blockers. Their tight ends should be pretty good this season, and they can go two-tight end and get physical in the running game.
They got a real stud left tackle in Stanley in the first round, and he was the best run-blocker of all the left tackles, and some say the best overall too.
Happily, he isn't quite a finished product. It's possible they put him at right tackle initially, but more likely he'll go right to left, and hopefully make some early mistakes.
But then that bastid Ozzie had to go and draft OLB Corea. AND DE/OLB Bronson Kaufusi dammit! And later an interior defensive lineman who is pretty good too.
This is infuriating. Ok Correa has a few warts and needs refinement, but is an athletic freak. He might not be too much of a pain in the ass at first, but eventually will be.
Kaufusi is another story, as my regular readers know. Unlike Correa, he can immediately play defensive end in any 4-man set. He can definitely get after the quarterback, is not soft on the run, and just needs work on standing up and covering in more than a simple zone.
Fortunately, the Ravens still don't have a great wide receiver crew. Mike Wallace is a deep threat, but that's about it for him and the guy they drafted.
Kamar Aiken is turning into a lethal weapon, but if you think Gramps Smith will come back off his injury anything like he was, you are delusional.
Two of their running backs are Terrence West and Trent Richardson. I'm not laughing as hard as most of you are about this, since they now have a lot of blocking muscle, but it's still valid to question their talent at this position.
On balance, the Ravens are indeed scarier than I said they were, but not in the same zip code as the Steelers or Bengals, and still not better than the Browns either.
Ogbah is better than both their new outside linebackers, and Hassan is better than Kaufusi. The Browns wide receivers and pass-catching tight ends are better, as are both running backs...maybe the top THREE running backs.
The Browns' defensive line should be better and deeper, and the inside linebackers too.
The Browns are just LOADED at outside linebacker now, too, including one ex-Raven and Ogbah, who has none of Correa's limitations. (Suggs enters year fifteen stop it. Just stop it.)
Now I think Gilbert will emerge, Haden will be his old self, Campbell will be a stud, the Browns are eyeball deep in nickel and dime coverage guys, so the Browns secondary should also be superior.
The Ravens LOST one of the best guards in the NFL to free agency, and despite Stanley shouldn't have a better offensive line.
Notable here is Griffin and Kessler signing up with Tom House for mechanical tweakage. Neither of them needs a lot of that; they're both pretty sound.
But House isn't a football guy. I'm glad he says "rotational" as part of what the explanation for what he does.
We all think we can throw as soon as we learn how to do it, but we're wrong. We can throw harder, farther, and more accurately if we're fine-tuned.
Some of the same principles apply to boxing. Rotation is verily the key element. That's the turning of your upper body around the axis of the spine.
Where your feet are matters, and whether on your heels or toes, and certainly it's a whole-body motion beginning at your feet, but the most important part is the last part: The upper body. That's where the extra "zip" and accuracy come from.
That's also how Joe Montana or John Elway could deliver strikes while floating through the air.
Anyway, of more significance is the fact that Corey Coleman is going there with them. I'm still hoping that Pryor and the other receivers will go too, but if they work with Randy Moss I guess that's okay too.
Coleman is being really smart here. He'll develop chemistry with both RG3 and the potential future starter. House might not be a football guy, but he'll for sure have him running every route (RG3 will make sure of that).
This is significant. It matters.
The Browns wide receivers should be better, overall, than the Ravens even in game one.
Quarterback is naturally the critical thing, and we have to give Big Bird the nod here. I never said he wasn't really good--just that he's not as good as Big Ben (or those most people rate above him).
RG3+Hue Jackson is potential. Some of us dare to anticipate good things, but quarterback is way tougher to project than wide receiver (Pryor).
If you think that all Hue needs to do is exactly what Shanahan did, you're wrong, because every NFL defense has found answers to that.
However...Hue Jackson is a leader, not a follower. RG3 is actually a really smart guy, and wiser now. I can't help but think that even if RG3 isn't the sensation he was as a rookie, he will be pretty good, and can win in crunch time, with his legs if necessary.
I know that Ray Farmer and others have projected McCown as the starter. Right now he IS the best quarterback.
But Farmer was talking about Hue's "system", so ex-linebacker or no, he clearly doesn't get it. If Hue has an ideal quarterback, it's everybody else's: Andrew Luck.
But Hue can and will use anybody. RG3 was his signing, and the 6'1" Kessler was his draft pick. Andy Dalton wasn't his "type", either. He backed off on Wentz, who allegedly is.
Ray Farmer, a guy I defended extensively and will still defend, also seems incapable of long-term strategic thinking here:
He seems to think the number one thing is to win games asap. He's wrong.
The number one objective is to reach the Superbowl in 2018, or take a shot in 2017 if we're ahead of schedule.
The number two objective is winning the Division. It's NOT GOING TO HAPPEN in 2016. The PLAYERS know it, as well as the coaches and front office and all us fans.
So even if McCown gives the Browns the best chance to win game one, if it's even close RG3 will start anyway. He is younger, with more upside. If he plays well, he can be traded for a high pick, or re-signed long term.
McCown is on borrowed time. All one or two more wins in 2016 does is lower their 2017 draft picks, and guarantee that RG3 has zero trade value.
But I digress: Give the quarterback nod to Flacco, but remember the other 21 players. Despite my maia culpa, the Browns still have more talent. The Browns quarterback will not be asked to carry the team.
I don't give Harbaugh the nod over Jackson either. I know Harbaugh is a great coach, but rate Jackson right there with him.
So in conclusion, I repeat: The Browns should SWEEP the Ravens in 2016, and Yoda needs to move to Baltimore and tell those fans to curb their enthusiasm.
Tuesday, June 7, 2016
What PFF Doesn't Do: Wrong About Browns Roster
Pro Football Focus is a great resource. In fact, as soon as I can afford it I might become an insider.
They are objective, unbiased, and scientific. But they have limitations.
To their credit, they adhere strictly to hard facts, and rely exclusively on NFL performance for each player.
Not being an insider, I can't study the nuts and bolts of their data. They do analyze draftable college players, and some writers use this data to project NFL performance.
But in evaluating the NFL rosters, I can't see how they could have used any of this in these rankings. I COULD BE WRONG about this, but if I am, then something else is wrong here.
They may well also have thresholds, such as minimum number of carries, targets, or snaps. Below certain numbers, data is unreliable. We've all seen our share of flashes in the pan, no? One shot wonders?
All of this is a good thing, since it removes human judgement from the process.
I speak as an analyst here: It's harder than most people think to separate their emotions and prejudices from the subject. Most analyses are unavoidably corrupted by subjectivity to some degree.
This is why the intelligence community filters estimates through fresh eyes, and cross-checks it against other assigned estimates and sources (when it's possible and not time-sensitive).
So yeah, I'm singing PFF's praises here, absolutely. I do think that some of their writers don't understand this as well as they should, but even they are pretty good overall.
What they filter out is what makes all their pre-season roster rankings suspect. It excludes (I think) all players who have not played a certain number of downs in the NFL.
It does consider system (ie zone vs man blocking, down position vs standing up, man, off-man, zone coverage, etc.) which is really excellent and thorough. But it can't consider how new coaches are likely to use the player. Nor how a young player can reasonably be expected to have improved over an off season.
This is why human minds are still necessary.
With all that said, I will now disassemble the Browns 31st roster ranking, and give Black Cloud a more realistic picture of where the homies stand:
Wide receiver first: The holdovers are Taylor Gabriel, Darius Jennings, Hawkins, Moore, and Pryor. I'm not sure ANY of these guys met a minimum threshold for PFF (which I assume was at least weighting 2016 heavily--recency being a key factor).
It's just possible that PFF had NO usable data for this position. The default there should be maybe the 40th percentile, or a little below average (at least that's how I'd set it up).
That's because the dearth of data implies inexperience, and inexperience implies mistakes and confusion (remember, they've got 32 teams to consider, so they need the most sensible uniform standards).
Well, of course that's ridiculous (though like I just said I don't blame them. Maybe I should HINT write for HINT them HINT HINT).
If they used Pryor at all, he'd rank around zero based on 2015. It's possible Jennings or Gabriel snuck in, but Gabriel was horrible. Jennings played well, however.
The reality, however, is that Pryor was very raw, and I believe in his four non-catches screwed up every way he could have (leaving the ground unnecessarily, not reaching forward for the ball, etc). He can be reasonably expected to have corrected these faults. Whether or not he actually starts, he will be a LOT better.
Some of the PFF writers will grin knowingly and shake their much wiser and more objective heads when they read that, but they're usually not real analysts. This is all pretty predictable.
Hawkins (if not traded or released) is a very reliable slot guy who has succeeded outside as well. His concussions scare the hell out of me, though, and he relies heavily on quickness and speed, which age will take from him first.
Marlon Moore has been around a long time, and is unlikely to do much.
Aside from Pryor (who towers over cornerbacks and will be BETTER when the pads go on), the four new guys (excluding two UFDAs) probably were not considered by PFF.
Coleman was one of the top two in the draft. He is the fastest and quickest, and a big-play guy in spades. That's not debatable.
Higgins and Payton were both rated higher than when they were taken and are tall, reliable, accomplished possession guys.
The PFF software did it's job, but no actually analytical human brain could rank the talent here in 2016 as below average. That's 16th.
Gary Barnidge is a top five receiving tight end, but I suspect that PFF penalized him for his sub-par in-line blocking, and didn't consider Seth DeValve at all.
There's no way, however, that PFF itself didn't rank TE in the top ten.
PFF seemed to recognize the existence of Greco and Bitonio as well as Thomas. They probably took Cameron Erving's season-long statistics and ranked him as one of the worst centers in the NFL.
I don't know what they did at right tackle. If they used the current frontrunner, ex-Seahawk Alvin Bailey, he'd show poorly based on his stats as well...as would Bowie. But for both these guys, a zone scheme without DeFellipo tinkering would help, along with the fact that both are entering their primes for developmental offensive linemen.
If PFF ignored depth, and allowed center and right tackle to drag this offensive line into the bottom ten, they need to fix something, since the left tackle and both guards should establish a beachhead in the top ten.
If the offensive line ranked below 16th or 18th, they need to tweak their software.
Can't say the same about quarterback. Their program had no choice but to rank the Browns group at or near the bottom.
I am personally optimistic about RG3 under Hue Jackson, a couple years older and wiser, and with these weapons, but can't predict this like I predicted Pryor as one of the top three receivers.
I like McCown a lot, but he is old and injured, and PFF isn't kind to him either (they can't quite fit crappy defense, limited targets, and no running game into their broader stats).
To review, for the offense, my adjusted rankings are wr 16, te 10, oline 17, qb...28. Running back? Well, PFF probably took season long statistics, which hurt Crowell a lot.
Actually (broken record here) he was his old terrific self in the last five games when he was allowed to run to both sides of the field and experienced actual daylight for once. The season long stuff might have hurt Duke too, but I don't know how he did from scrimmage in that stretch.
I imagine PFF ranked running back below 18th despite Duke's outstanding performance catching passes. Really, 15th is pessimistic.
So should a super bad QB ranking pull an overall average offensive ranking into the toilet? Well, PFF might weight QB and offensive line heaviest and heavier respectively (I would), but no: there's simply no way to rank the offense overall below 20.
Those who will disagree with me will do so on the bases of Pryor, Erving, right tackle, and Crowell. I respect that. We'll just have to see who is wrong. I'll bet you all a beer. I expect to drink for free the rest of my life.
Defensively, I just have to generalize more here:
I like Mike Pettine (and won't scapegoat his DC like Grossi does), but here's what I've determined went wrong last season:
In 2014, Pettine installed Ryan 1.0; the simplest version of the Rubics Cube Ryan defense. That's when/why they brought in old hands Dansby, Whitten, Tramon Williams, and that defensive lineman. Haden and Gipson remained fairly healthy. The defense in general was fairly experienced.
In 2015, the dastardly Ray Farmer landed Danny Shelton, Nate Orchard, X Cooper, and other ROOKIE defensive players who earned playing time.
But Mike still installed Rubic 2.0. Gipson and Haden went down. But when Gipson was healthy, he was playing strong safety. And Paul Kruger was in coverage on most snaps look I'm sorry this was just plain dumb ok?
The front line roster started out younger, and got younger yet due to injuries. A lot of guys were standing there not sure what to do.
PFF may have ranked the defense in the basement, but that too is ridiculous since it was hurt by inexperience, scheme, coaching, and an offense that couldn't keep them off the field and wore them down.
Did they consider Ogbah, Hassan, Wright, Schoebert, and Kindred? Clearly not Wright or Schoebert, as they ranked inside linebacker at the bottom.
Joe Haden sucked last season even when healthy, but should be fine now (still young). The young players will predictably improve with experience in a simpler, player-friendly system. The rookies with great instincts will be allowed to PLAY fast without pondering chess moves.
My own prediction has Gilbert starting opposite Haden and a top ten secondary.
In fact, I can't find any unit on the defense which isn't in the top ten.
Tramon Williams could be released, but because he's big and tall could be retained for outside depth and guidance.
Wright and Schoebert will immediately challenge the veterans inside, and whoever wins will have to be good.
This is about talent/ability more than statistics. I project. I'm accused of optimism, and have pled guilty of it in the past. But I do have REASONS for projecting Pryor, RG3, and Gilbert as I do...and Wright, Schoebert, Hassan, etc.
Down the road, this almost certainly won't pan out as I project it will. That's because if an offense has to come from behind a lot, the quarterback will get sacked and throw more interceptions, and not run much. The defense will wear down and surrender more yards on the ground.
PFF can't factor all this in, and it skewed some of the stats they used from last season.
In conclusion, the 2015 Browns have ABOVE AVERAGE overall talent. How this will bear out is wildly unpredictable, given 26-30 rookies on the current roster, general inexperience, RG3, the Steelers and Bengals, new systems, injuries etc etc etc.
Some of you are laughing at me now, but will believe me by the time PFF ranks the rosters after game 12.
Now on Las Vegas predicting 0-16: Oddsmakers predict public sentiment. They make their money off the vig. They expect the Browns to be underdogs in every game, period.
Me? I expect to exploit this.
They are objective, unbiased, and scientific. But they have limitations.
To their credit, they adhere strictly to hard facts, and rely exclusively on NFL performance for each player.
Not being an insider, I can't study the nuts and bolts of their data. They do analyze draftable college players, and some writers use this data to project NFL performance.
But in evaluating the NFL rosters, I can't see how they could have used any of this in these rankings. I COULD BE WRONG about this, but if I am, then something else is wrong here.
They may well also have thresholds, such as minimum number of carries, targets, or snaps. Below certain numbers, data is unreliable. We've all seen our share of flashes in the pan, no? One shot wonders?
All of this is a good thing, since it removes human judgement from the process.
I speak as an analyst here: It's harder than most people think to separate their emotions and prejudices from the subject. Most analyses are unavoidably corrupted by subjectivity to some degree.
This is why the intelligence community filters estimates through fresh eyes, and cross-checks it against other assigned estimates and sources (when it's possible and not time-sensitive).
So yeah, I'm singing PFF's praises here, absolutely. I do think that some of their writers don't understand this as well as they should, but even they are pretty good overall.
What they filter out is what makes all their pre-season roster rankings suspect. It excludes (I think) all players who have not played a certain number of downs in the NFL.
It does consider system (ie zone vs man blocking, down position vs standing up, man, off-man, zone coverage, etc.) which is really excellent and thorough. But it can't consider how new coaches are likely to use the player. Nor how a young player can reasonably be expected to have improved over an off season.
This is why human minds are still necessary.
With all that said, I will now disassemble the Browns 31st roster ranking, and give Black Cloud a more realistic picture of where the homies stand:
Wide receiver first: The holdovers are Taylor Gabriel, Darius Jennings, Hawkins, Moore, and Pryor. I'm not sure ANY of these guys met a minimum threshold for PFF (which I assume was at least weighting 2016 heavily--recency being a key factor).
It's just possible that PFF had NO usable data for this position. The default there should be maybe the 40th percentile, or a little below average (at least that's how I'd set it up).
That's because the dearth of data implies inexperience, and inexperience implies mistakes and confusion (remember, they've got 32 teams to consider, so they need the most sensible uniform standards).
Well, of course that's ridiculous (though like I just said I don't blame them. Maybe I should HINT write for HINT them HINT HINT).
If they used Pryor at all, he'd rank around zero based on 2015. It's possible Jennings or Gabriel snuck in, but Gabriel was horrible. Jennings played well, however.
The reality, however, is that Pryor was very raw, and I believe in his four non-catches screwed up every way he could have (leaving the ground unnecessarily, not reaching forward for the ball, etc). He can be reasonably expected to have corrected these faults. Whether or not he actually starts, he will be a LOT better.
Some of the PFF writers will grin knowingly and shake their much wiser and more objective heads when they read that, but they're usually not real analysts. This is all pretty predictable.
Hawkins (if not traded or released) is a very reliable slot guy who has succeeded outside as well. His concussions scare the hell out of me, though, and he relies heavily on quickness and speed, which age will take from him first.
Marlon Moore has been around a long time, and is unlikely to do much.
Aside from Pryor (who towers over cornerbacks and will be BETTER when the pads go on), the four new guys (excluding two UFDAs) probably were not considered by PFF.
Coleman was one of the top two in the draft. He is the fastest and quickest, and a big-play guy in spades. That's not debatable.
Higgins and Payton were both rated higher than when they were taken and are tall, reliable, accomplished possession guys.
The PFF software did it's job, but no actually analytical human brain could rank the talent here in 2016 as below average. That's 16th.
Gary Barnidge is a top five receiving tight end, but I suspect that PFF penalized him for his sub-par in-line blocking, and didn't consider Seth DeValve at all.
There's no way, however, that PFF itself didn't rank TE in the top ten.
PFF seemed to recognize the existence of Greco and Bitonio as well as Thomas. They probably took Cameron Erving's season-long statistics and ranked him as one of the worst centers in the NFL.
I don't know what they did at right tackle. If they used the current frontrunner, ex-Seahawk Alvin Bailey, he'd show poorly based on his stats as well...as would Bowie. But for both these guys, a zone scheme without DeFellipo tinkering would help, along with the fact that both are entering their primes for developmental offensive linemen.
If PFF ignored depth, and allowed center and right tackle to drag this offensive line into the bottom ten, they need to fix something, since the left tackle and both guards should establish a beachhead in the top ten.
If the offensive line ranked below 16th or 18th, they need to tweak their software.
Can't say the same about quarterback. Their program had no choice but to rank the Browns group at or near the bottom.
I am personally optimistic about RG3 under Hue Jackson, a couple years older and wiser, and with these weapons, but can't predict this like I predicted Pryor as one of the top three receivers.
I like McCown a lot, but he is old and injured, and PFF isn't kind to him either (they can't quite fit crappy defense, limited targets, and no running game into their broader stats).
To review, for the offense, my adjusted rankings are wr 16, te 10, oline 17, qb...28. Running back? Well, PFF probably took season long statistics, which hurt Crowell a lot.
Actually (broken record here) he was his old terrific self in the last five games when he was allowed to run to both sides of the field and experienced actual daylight for once. The season long stuff might have hurt Duke too, but I don't know how he did from scrimmage in that stretch.
I imagine PFF ranked running back below 18th despite Duke's outstanding performance catching passes. Really, 15th is pessimistic.
So should a super bad QB ranking pull an overall average offensive ranking into the toilet? Well, PFF might weight QB and offensive line heaviest and heavier respectively (I would), but no: there's simply no way to rank the offense overall below 20.
Those who will disagree with me will do so on the bases of Pryor, Erving, right tackle, and Crowell. I respect that. We'll just have to see who is wrong. I'll bet you all a beer. I expect to drink for free the rest of my life.
Defensively, I just have to generalize more here:
I like Mike Pettine (and won't scapegoat his DC like Grossi does), but here's what I've determined went wrong last season:
In 2014, Pettine installed Ryan 1.0; the simplest version of the Rubics Cube Ryan defense. That's when/why they brought in old hands Dansby, Whitten, Tramon Williams, and that defensive lineman. Haden and Gipson remained fairly healthy. The defense in general was fairly experienced.
In 2015, the dastardly Ray Farmer landed Danny Shelton, Nate Orchard, X Cooper, and other ROOKIE defensive players who earned playing time.
But Mike still installed Rubic 2.0. Gipson and Haden went down. But when Gipson was healthy, he was playing strong safety. And Paul Kruger was in coverage on most snaps look I'm sorry this was just plain dumb ok?
The front line roster started out younger, and got younger yet due to injuries. A lot of guys were standing there not sure what to do.
PFF may have ranked the defense in the basement, but that too is ridiculous since it was hurt by inexperience, scheme, coaching, and an offense that couldn't keep them off the field and wore them down.
Did they consider Ogbah, Hassan, Wright, Schoebert, and Kindred? Clearly not Wright or Schoebert, as they ranked inside linebacker at the bottom.
Joe Haden sucked last season even when healthy, but should be fine now (still young). The young players will predictably improve with experience in a simpler, player-friendly system. The rookies with great instincts will be allowed to PLAY fast without pondering chess moves.
My own prediction has Gilbert starting opposite Haden and a top ten secondary.
In fact, I can't find any unit on the defense which isn't in the top ten.
Tramon Williams could be released, but because he's big and tall could be retained for outside depth and guidance.
Wright and Schoebert will immediately challenge the veterans inside, and whoever wins will have to be good.
This is about talent/ability more than statistics. I project. I'm accused of optimism, and have pled guilty of it in the past. But I do have REASONS for projecting Pryor, RG3, and Gilbert as I do...and Wright, Schoebert, Hassan, etc.
Down the road, this almost certainly won't pan out as I project it will. That's because if an offense has to come from behind a lot, the quarterback will get sacked and throw more interceptions, and not run much. The defense will wear down and surrender more yards on the ground.
PFF can't factor all this in, and it skewed some of the stats they used from last season.
In conclusion, the 2015 Browns have ABOVE AVERAGE overall talent. How this will bear out is wildly unpredictable, given 26-30 rookies on the current roster, general inexperience, RG3, the Steelers and Bengals, new systems, injuries etc etc etc.
Some of you are laughing at me now, but will believe me by the time PFF ranks the rosters after game 12.
Now on Las Vegas predicting 0-16: Oddsmakers predict public sentiment. They make their money off the vig. They expect the Browns to be underdogs in every game, period.
Me? I expect to exploit this.
Browns Roster 31st?
Pro Football Focus ranked the current Browns roster as 31st in the NFL for several reasons.
The biggest reason was the fact that 26-30 of the current players have never played in the NFL.
There are other reasons:
1: Joe Haden played badly last season even when healthy.
2: Schwartze, Mack, Dansby, Gipson, and Benjamin dropped off the board.
3: RG3 didn't even play last season.
And more reasons:
I'm not an "insider", but I believe that the ratings of the holdover players were based on season long stats, and ignored trends (and coaching, and scheme).
Probably, Nate Orchard had "only three sacks", and never mind that these all came in the last quarter of his rookie season.
Isaiah Crowell averaged 3.8 yards per carry, and never mind that he averaged 5.2 after being allowed to run to the strong side.
Cam Erving was atrocious overall, but late in the season at right guard was serviceable. Terrell Pryor was statistically terrible.
PFF doesn't project. Hassan, Ogbah, Coleman, etc. do not exist for them. How Hue Jackson and company will use them does not compute.
I like PFF, but it needs to be considered in context. Their rankings will start to change after game one of 2016, and become more accurate as the season progresses.
Considering the preponderance of rookies on this roster, it won't be as accurate as oh, I don't know...ME any time soon, because these are ascending players who won't have approached their potentials yet.
PFF doesn't rank talent. It rates performance. The PFF writer who used the word "talent" shouldn't have. Talent is ability.
The Browns roster, for the moment, ranks 31st based on NFL performance.
Don't worry about it. More to follow.
The biggest reason was the fact that 26-30 of the current players have never played in the NFL.
There are other reasons:
1: Joe Haden played badly last season even when healthy.
2: Schwartze, Mack, Dansby, Gipson, and Benjamin dropped off the board.
3: RG3 didn't even play last season.
And more reasons:
I'm not an "insider", but I believe that the ratings of the holdover players were based on season long stats, and ignored trends (and coaching, and scheme).
Probably, Nate Orchard had "only three sacks", and never mind that these all came in the last quarter of his rookie season.
Isaiah Crowell averaged 3.8 yards per carry, and never mind that he averaged 5.2 after being allowed to run to the strong side.
Cam Erving was atrocious overall, but late in the season at right guard was serviceable. Terrell Pryor was statistically terrible.
PFF doesn't project. Hassan, Ogbah, Coleman, etc. do not exist for them. How Hue Jackson and company will use them does not compute.
I like PFF, but it needs to be considered in context. Their rankings will start to change after game one of 2016, and become more accurate as the season progresses.
Considering the preponderance of rookies on this roster, it won't be as accurate as oh, I don't know...ME any time soon, because these are ascending players who won't have approached their potentials yet.
PFF doesn't rank talent. It rates performance. The PFF writer who used the word "talent" shouldn't have. Talent is ability.
The Browns roster, for the moment, ranks 31st based on NFL performance.
Don't worry about it. More to follow.
Sunday, June 5, 2016
The Dumbest Browns Article I Have Ever Read
I'm sick of doing this for free. Some idiot editor published this. Maybe one of the idiots who I applied to write for.
You need to read this, and give me some credit.
Click here.
I rest my case.
You need to read this, and give me some credit.
Click here.
I rest my case.
Friday, June 3, 2016
What We DID Learn from OTAs
When real experts say that you can't tell much from practices in shorts and helmets, they're talking about linemen and running backs, mostly. Casual fans tend to think it means everybody.
It doesn't. Cornerbacks and receivers still have to cover or get open. Press coverage still goes on here, because there's little real contact even in games.
This is why Justin Gilbert's improvement is no mirage. And like Terrell Pryor, it will probably be more pronounced when the pads go on.
Yoda will sagely advise wisely that it's too soon we have a long blahblahblah, and for sure, Gilbert could backslide.
But so far, Gilbert is going to be a starter, and live up to his lofty draft status.
This would change everything for the defense, like Dixon and Minnifield did for Marty Scottenheimer.
The two plays Gilbert made that get the most attention were vs Barnidge and Pryor. That's probably not coincidental. Left cornerback right cornerback who cares? Gilbert matches up with the skyscrapers, and is likely to be used against them.
This is SO much better than yet still another 5'9" little dynamo impressing everybody covering little shrimps.
Please stop embarrassing yourselves talking about Gilbert at nickel back. He's not built to cover microbes.
In Ray Horton's defense, he could play some "safety", but all that means is that he could cover the BIG slot or a tight end (kind of the same thing). But most offenses have at least one big tall number one or two outside receiver, and this is where (if he doesn't backslide) he'll start.
Pryor's performance is not a mirage either. First teamers are actually trying to actually cover him, and he is actually getting open and catching actual passes IT'S TRUE! Honest!
Now HE won't backslide! HE will only get better.
We don't know about the quarterbacks, running backs, linemen, or linebackers (except in coverage or catching passes) yet, but we have seen a legitimate glimpse of the receivers and secondary. This was real.
Now what about Josh? Well, I was kind of writing him off til Jim Brown stood up for him (kinda).
I don't know what they'll do if he is reinstated (and the fact that he went to rehab could do the trick).
But the thought of Gordon on one side, Pryor on the other, and Coleman between them is spine-chilling.
Jim Brown has spent most of his life trying to save at-risk young men from the hood. He's no doubt been unable to pull some (or even a majority) of them off the road to no where, but he's certainly saved a lot of them.
And he's heard it all. He probably knows a snow job from sincerity, and he's backing Gordon up with Hue and Jimmy.
The REAL risk is this: His roster spot. Some player will have to go to make room for him. That player is most likely the sixth or seventh wide receiver.
Analytically speaking, that's an automatic "Hell yes!".
Pundits will start talking about sending messages and signals and all this happy horseshit, but the PLAYERS all get it.
If you're as good as Josh Gordon, you get a last chance. If you're not, they'll probably cut you. That's just reality.
Yeah right: I'm a third string tight end and get a second suspension for pot. I get cut. The team starts grumbling over a double standard yeah right.
They LIVE DARWIN, for crying out loud! The best players get treated differently for good reasons. What do you think this is, an orphanage?
...I was gone for awhile but I'm back now. I hope Josh is reinstated and they keep him, because around week eight I want to see the scariest passing attack in the NFL.
Oh shut up, Yoda! Brandon WEEDON could kick ass with that crew! Derrick Anderson did, with half of it.
The running game will be there, and this is one reason why.
It doesn't. Cornerbacks and receivers still have to cover or get open. Press coverage still goes on here, because there's little real contact even in games.
This is why Justin Gilbert's improvement is no mirage. And like Terrell Pryor, it will probably be more pronounced when the pads go on.
Yoda will sagely advise wisely that it's too soon we have a long blahblahblah, and for sure, Gilbert could backslide.
But so far, Gilbert is going to be a starter, and live up to his lofty draft status.
This would change everything for the defense, like Dixon and Minnifield did for Marty Scottenheimer.
The two plays Gilbert made that get the most attention were vs Barnidge and Pryor. That's probably not coincidental. Left cornerback right cornerback who cares? Gilbert matches up with the skyscrapers, and is likely to be used against them.
This is SO much better than yet still another 5'9" little dynamo impressing everybody covering little shrimps.
Please stop embarrassing yourselves talking about Gilbert at nickel back. He's not built to cover microbes.
In Ray Horton's defense, he could play some "safety", but all that means is that he could cover the BIG slot or a tight end (kind of the same thing). But most offenses have at least one big tall number one or two outside receiver, and this is where (if he doesn't backslide) he'll start.
Pryor's performance is not a mirage either. First teamers are actually trying to actually cover him, and he is actually getting open and catching actual passes IT'S TRUE! Honest!
Now HE won't backslide! HE will only get better.
We don't know about the quarterbacks, running backs, linemen, or linebackers (except in coverage or catching passes) yet, but we have seen a legitimate glimpse of the receivers and secondary. This was real.
Now what about Josh? Well, I was kind of writing him off til Jim Brown stood up for him (kinda).
I don't know what they'll do if he is reinstated (and the fact that he went to rehab could do the trick).
But the thought of Gordon on one side, Pryor on the other, and Coleman between them is spine-chilling.
Jim Brown has spent most of his life trying to save at-risk young men from the hood. He's no doubt been unable to pull some (or even a majority) of them off the road to no where, but he's certainly saved a lot of them.
And he's heard it all. He probably knows a snow job from sincerity, and he's backing Gordon up with Hue and Jimmy.
The REAL risk is this: His roster spot. Some player will have to go to make room for him. That player is most likely the sixth or seventh wide receiver.
Analytically speaking, that's an automatic "Hell yes!".
Pundits will start talking about sending messages and signals and all this happy horseshit, but the PLAYERS all get it.
If you're as good as Josh Gordon, you get a last chance. If you're not, they'll probably cut you. That's just reality.
Yeah right: I'm a third string tight end and get a second suspension for pot. I get cut. The team starts grumbling over a double standard yeah right.
They LIVE DARWIN, for crying out loud! The best players get treated differently for good reasons. What do you think this is, an orphanage?
...I was gone for awhile but I'm back now. I hope Josh is reinstated and they keep him, because around week eight I want to see the scariest passing attack in the NFL.
Oh shut up, Yoda! Brandon WEEDON could kick ass with that crew! Derrick Anderson did, with half of it.
The running game will be there, and this is one reason why.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)