Least but not last, the guys on NFL Radio need a hobby. DePodesta makes a speech three days before free agency. It's a big deal!
NOT.
I now tune out Pat Kirwan when he says anything about the Browns. His sheer disdain for the organization is ingrained.
I could tolerate it before, but now Sashi Brown just handed him a bag o hand grenades (and what he must feel is validation). He'll be insufferable.
Rich Gannon has irked me in the past picking on the Browns, but for him it's early in seasons, before he'd seen any games or done any research of his own.
Rich, unlike Pat, thinks with his brain, and doesn't let the simmering cauldron of emotion contaminate his objectivity. He neither likes nor dislikes the Browns. I'll take it.
Rich was clearly as befuddled as most of us by the mass exodus of four elite players. Pat wisely remained silent, aside from sighs and snickers.
Rich said something like what I wrote. Evidently, they mean to tear it down and rebuild it. Sounding skeptical, he said "who knows? Maybe six months from now we're all looking at this and saying 'I guess they knew what they were doing' but...I don't know..."
Good enough, Rich.
It has begun to dawn on others (some of whom might not even have stolen the thought from me) that these events could make trading Joe Thomas a smart move now. Welcome to the party! How long til Haden sneaks in there?
I'm not so high on a Haden trade though. He's still in his prime.
Here are some comments that shocked me: Jim Miller (who incidentally announced all the Michigan State games and is an expert on and proponent of Connor Cook) was asked by his co-host where Wentz and Goff would rank in last year's draft (with Mariota and Winston).
"I'd put him right there with those guys!".
They also said that John Gruden said that Wentz was the most pro-ready quarterback he'd seen in a couple years!
Now...who will screw the Browns out of drafting him?
Shhh!
Are the 2016 Browns the least talented team in NFL history?
Remember high school? A crowd would start picking on some poor kid, vying with each other to get the best zingers in. The long nose grew into a huge honker. A slender build became anorexic. A single pimple became a pizza face.
Always, some clown would take it too far. "We all screwed your mother last night haw-haw...what's everybody looking at?"
That's whoever wrote this article. I didn't read it. I apologize if the title was just a hook for something by an author with a homo sapiens brain, and not a steaming pile of hot LaCanfora.
Anyway, this was written before Dansby's release. Ok now, including the punter and kicker and every member of the defensive line and the fourth cornerback, find me three players who are below average.
No bullcrap here: Gilbert barely played, and even if he had, you need to look up "talent" in your Funk&Wagnall. You need a brain transplant if you listed Hartline. Or Crowell.
You need one anyway: If you'd asked "Are the 2016 Browns the most average team ever?" I'd know you could spell your name right.
Somebody always takes it too far and wrecks a perfectly fun torture session. Go home and pull the wings off flies. Burn ants with a magnifying glass. I'm sick of this.
Stop it. There is something wrong with you.
Monday, March 14, 2016
Sunday, March 13, 2016
They Might Be Wrong, but They're not Stupid
I'm as befuddled as you are by what the Browns have and haven't done in free agency. It seems downright idiotic.
The problem is, these guys are not idiots. They might be screwing up massively, but if they are, it's not because they're stupid. They have reasons for what they're doing.
I've tried to figure that out.
Read this slowly, three times: I am not defending or endorsing anything. I am not making any predictions. Do not be confused because I said they weren't idiots. It is possible to be smart and still screw up DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
1: Alex Mack: HYPE aside, Alex Mack making the Pro Bowl was political. He was not an elite center in 2016.
He was better before his broken leg than he was after that injury. The injury had less to do with that than his age and DeFelipo's changes in the blocking scheme, but those who describe an awesome year are delusional or work for him.
He is thirty. He is better in zone than in man. He should indeed remain a top five center for at least a couple more years.
He accepted 9.5 mil/year to leave the Browns. That's (I estimate) a little over 7% of the Browns payroll.
For contrast, a franchise quarterback might greedily extort 16% of a team's salary. A left tackle might get 8.5%, and a top five right tackle 7%.
The best center in the NFL, if he is 27 or 28 years old, might rate almost as much as a Pro Bowl right tackle. Read this carefully: Alex Mack is no longer that guy. And he won't get better. He will decline. That is reality.
Sashi and company seem to have mapped things out, and determined not to compromise one iota.
They might be wrong, but for Alex Mack, it might well have been: Sixth best at position. Thirty and on downside. Better in Shanahan's scheme than Jackson's. Worth 6.5% of cap and no more.
2: Mitchell Schwartz: In his prime, elite. Worth every penny of the 7 mil/year offer he left on the table.
Character and priorities matter. These are important. I don't care or even believe what Schwartz's agent said with egg on his face:
Brown made him an offer. When Mitchell TURNED IT DOWN, it was to leave the Browns or else gouge them with other offers.
It was a fair offer, made in good faith. We want you to stay here. If you want to stay here, sign here. If you fuck with us, go to hell.
Sashi might even have said that. Schwartz's agent might well have said "He's bluffing". Sashi needs players and agents to know he doesn't bluff. The Browns want players who want to stay here...not mercenaries.
I would have let him come back and take the original offer. But I'm not qualified to bash Sashi Brown (yet). We'll see.
3: Tashaun Gipson: Elite talent in his prime. Crappy season. Injured a lot. Lots of talent behind him. Bad attitude (pissed off over a second round tender!? Blaming the new front office for stuff the old front office did?)
Goes to the Jaguars because he "just wants to win". Sounds like Hillary Clinton good riddance.
4: Travis Benjamin: Best punt returner in football, elite slot receiver who can play outside too. In his prime.
Tiny. Stick legs. Overdue for major injury. High risk. Hawkins on roster.
Left for a few pennies more.
5: Colin Kaepernick: 11 mil/year guaranteed. Offer a third round pick contingent on salary reduction. The Browns see him as a backup and a lottery ticket, not as a franchise quarterback. They would still probably draft one.
Note: This doesn't necessarily mean that Josh McCown would leave. McCown is a fantastic mentor for young quarterbacks. Not just for a Wentz or Goff, but yes, even for a Kaepernick.
And his retention in this (I think improbable) scenario would make it easier to keep the rookie on the bench until he is ready.
Considering the line that will be blocking for him now, that's probably a real good idea.
Of course, now that I said that...
Like just about everybody else except Sashi Brown and company, I would have at least matched all these offers.
The overarching strategy seems to be a real teardown and rebuild (ie I was wrong again). In view of recent events, Joe Thomas and perhaps Joe Haden too would be justified to ask to be traded.
If they do, Sashi will cooperate. Now that so much damage has been done, they might as well go all-in.
2016 as it was looked grim in this division with these other teams. I do agree with the cold objective logic here: If you aren't going to make the playoffs, looking respectable is meaningless compared to developing young players.
Scorched earth. Clearly, Jimmy Haslam was sincere (I was wrong yet again) when he said "multi-year". His new employees are following through.
Ironically, in doing so they pretty much guarantee themselves three seasons. Jimmy already knows 2016 is tanked, and all they'll need in 2017 is some minor improvement.
Well played.
I will defend this. The objective is not to win "moral victories" in 2016, but to build a dynasty like the Patriots, Steelers, Packers, Seahawks.
That's drafting a quarterback at the TOP of the first round, letting everybody who doesn't want to stay here or is screwed up in the head leave, drafting new players and letting them play, and taking some beatings.
That's why at this point I rather hope Big Joe and even Little Joe get traded. They won't be themselves any more by the time this team is ready for the Big Game, but the players drafted with those picks will be entering their primes.
I need to repeat this yet again: I would not have done this. I'm just telling you: They might be wrong, but they had reasons for all of it.
They'll finally, at long last, produce a perennial contender, or die with their boots on.
Nothing else was working. Stay tuned.
This just in: Kaepernick balking at renegotiation because of Browns Free agent "blunders".
This writer is ignorant. There were no blunders. There were decisions. For this clown, all decisions he disagrees with are blunders.
The S-storm is coming. Next up: Black helicopters. Haslam is tanking so he can chase fans away and move the team. Sashi Brown is sabotaging Hue Jackson in a power struggle. Aliens took over Berea ten years ago and everybody who goes in the front office comes out a pod person...wait...hmmm....
The problem is, these guys are not idiots. They might be screwing up massively, but if they are, it's not because they're stupid. They have reasons for what they're doing.
I've tried to figure that out.
Read this slowly, three times: I am not defending or endorsing anything. I am not making any predictions. Do not be confused because I said they weren't idiots. It is possible to be smart and still screw up DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
1: Alex Mack: HYPE aside, Alex Mack making the Pro Bowl was political. He was not an elite center in 2016.
He was better before his broken leg than he was after that injury. The injury had less to do with that than his age and DeFelipo's changes in the blocking scheme, but those who describe an awesome year are delusional or work for him.
He is thirty. He is better in zone than in man. He should indeed remain a top five center for at least a couple more years.
He accepted 9.5 mil/year to leave the Browns. That's (I estimate) a little over 7% of the Browns payroll.
For contrast, a franchise quarterback might greedily extort 16% of a team's salary. A left tackle might get 8.5%, and a top five right tackle 7%.
The best center in the NFL, if he is 27 or 28 years old, might rate almost as much as a Pro Bowl right tackle. Read this carefully: Alex Mack is no longer that guy. And he won't get better. He will decline. That is reality.
Sashi and company seem to have mapped things out, and determined not to compromise one iota.
They might be wrong, but for Alex Mack, it might well have been: Sixth best at position. Thirty and on downside. Better in Shanahan's scheme than Jackson's. Worth 6.5% of cap and no more.
2: Mitchell Schwartz: In his prime, elite. Worth every penny of the 7 mil/year offer he left on the table.
Character and priorities matter. These are important. I don't care or even believe what Schwartz's agent said with egg on his face:
Brown made him an offer. When Mitchell TURNED IT DOWN, it was to leave the Browns or else gouge them with other offers.
It was a fair offer, made in good faith. We want you to stay here. If you want to stay here, sign here. If you fuck with us, go to hell.
Sashi might even have said that. Schwartz's agent might well have said "He's bluffing". Sashi needs players and agents to know he doesn't bluff. The Browns want players who want to stay here...not mercenaries.
I would have let him come back and take the original offer. But I'm not qualified to bash Sashi Brown (yet). We'll see.
3: Tashaun Gipson: Elite talent in his prime. Crappy season. Injured a lot. Lots of talent behind him. Bad attitude (pissed off over a second round tender!? Blaming the new front office for stuff the old front office did?)
Goes to the Jaguars because he "just wants to win". Sounds like Hillary Clinton good riddance.
4: Travis Benjamin: Best punt returner in football, elite slot receiver who can play outside too. In his prime.
Tiny. Stick legs. Overdue for major injury. High risk. Hawkins on roster.
Left for a few pennies more.
5: Colin Kaepernick: 11 mil/year guaranteed. Offer a third round pick contingent on salary reduction. The Browns see him as a backup and a lottery ticket, not as a franchise quarterback. They would still probably draft one.
Note: This doesn't necessarily mean that Josh McCown would leave. McCown is a fantastic mentor for young quarterbacks. Not just for a Wentz or Goff, but yes, even for a Kaepernick.
And his retention in this (I think improbable) scenario would make it easier to keep the rookie on the bench until he is ready.
Considering the line that will be blocking for him now, that's probably a real good idea.
Of course, now that I said that...
Like just about everybody else except Sashi Brown and company, I would have at least matched all these offers.
The overarching strategy seems to be a real teardown and rebuild (ie I was wrong again). In view of recent events, Joe Thomas and perhaps Joe Haden too would be justified to ask to be traded.
If they do, Sashi will cooperate. Now that so much damage has been done, they might as well go all-in.
2016 as it was looked grim in this division with these other teams. I do agree with the cold objective logic here: If you aren't going to make the playoffs, looking respectable is meaningless compared to developing young players.
Scorched earth. Clearly, Jimmy Haslam was sincere (I was wrong yet again) when he said "multi-year". His new employees are following through.
Ironically, in doing so they pretty much guarantee themselves three seasons. Jimmy already knows 2016 is tanked, and all they'll need in 2017 is some minor improvement.
Well played.
I will defend this. The objective is not to win "moral victories" in 2016, but to build a dynasty like the Patriots, Steelers, Packers, Seahawks.
That's drafting a quarterback at the TOP of the first round, letting everybody who doesn't want to stay here or is screwed up in the head leave, drafting new players and letting them play, and taking some beatings.
That's why at this point I rather hope Big Joe and even Little Joe get traded. They won't be themselves any more by the time this team is ready for the Big Game, but the players drafted with those picks will be entering their primes.
I need to repeat this yet again: I would not have done this. I'm just telling you: They might be wrong, but they had reasons for all of it.
They'll finally, at long last, produce a perennial contender, or die with their boots on.
Nothing else was working. Stay tuned.
This just in: Kaepernick balking at renegotiation because of Browns Free agent "blunders".
This writer is ignorant. There were no blunders. There were decisions. For this clown, all decisions he disagrees with are blunders.
The S-storm is coming. Next up: Black helicopters. Haslam is tanking so he can chase fans away and move the team. Sashi Brown is sabotaging Hue Jackson in a power struggle. Aliens took over Berea ten years ago and everybody who goes in the front office comes out a pod person...wait...hmmm....
Thursday, March 10, 2016
Oof!!
Based on Tashaun Gipson's recent comments, I'm glad he's gone. What an ego that guy's got!
But losing the skwewy wabbit sucks.
Mack AND Schwartze--that one was murderous. Especially Schwartz, who came back for what he'd been offered, and found the offer gone. He accepted less money to leave.
These guys are hard liners. Brutally so.
For all these guys, I believe they set a value, and determined in advance not to pay a dime more.
Unlike Doctor Evil (Ozzie Newsome), they don't like their players shopping around. That's the only explanation for how they handled Mitchell Schwartz.
I believe the new regime deliberately set a precedent here. A big part of me is cheering. The part that's sick of hearing millionaires who play a kid's game for a living talking about taking care of their families.
But the other part of me wonders if Sashi and company are completely sane.
In the future, however, when Sashi calls a player's agent to try to get an extention done, the recalcitrant gougery won't be a reflex.
Oh, I hear you: They'll want to leave anyway. Don't bet on it.
Thanks to Mack and Scwartz, 2016 could be a long season. Two fifths of the offensive line---wow. But this won't last forever.
Mack said interesting things: He repeatedly referred to Shanahan's system. That was informative. It's a strong indication that Hue Jackson will NOT run a lot of zone stuff (and I was wrong).
Shanahan ran an inside zone scheme. In the past, Hue Jackson has run man schemes. Alex wouldn't have mentioned Shanahan's scheme as a factor if Hue intended to run it.
Still, Alex is kidding himself. He's good at both schemes. The zone is just easier on his brain. Everybody automatically knows who to block in a zone.
I'm still in shock, I think.
This means more. They really are going for the teardown and rebuild, at least on offense. In Mack's case, he's thirty. But Schwartz? That was stunning. They could have kept him for 7 mil/year! They rejected him for not accepting their offer!
It sounds childish, but it wasn't. These guys aren't throwing a tantrum. They did this for a reason.
There are things Hue and Sashi and company know that we don't.
...I'm sorry I can't think straight yet. But I will tell you this: Let it play out.
The Kaepernick and Manziel for Kaepernick stuff is intriguing (see that's a correct use of that word).
I earlier laughed at a guy for suggesting that the Browns take a flyer on Kaepernick, but these talks seem real. I'm not laughing any more.
Colin is due 11 million. Manziel around two million. I'm weary of NFL Radio guys saying you can't count on Johnny. Who thinks anybody has to count on somebody they hardly even pay? He's a lottery ticket. That's why teams are interested! And dont you know Chip Kelly thinks he can fix him?
Hue Jackson must think he can fix Kaepernick, too.
Well, in Hue I trust until proven wrong. Good luck Hue.
But losing the skwewy wabbit sucks.
Mack AND Schwartze--that one was murderous. Especially Schwartz, who came back for what he'd been offered, and found the offer gone. He accepted less money to leave.
These guys are hard liners. Brutally so.
For all these guys, I believe they set a value, and determined in advance not to pay a dime more.
Unlike Doctor Evil (Ozzie Newsome), they don't like their players shopping around. That's the only explanation for how they handled Mitchell Schwartz.
I believe the new regime deliberately set a precedent here. A big part of me is cheering. The part that's sick of hearing millionaires who play a kid's game for a living talking about taking care of their families.
But the other part of me wonders if Sashi and company are completely sane.
In the future, however, when Sashi calls a player's agent to try to get an extention done, the recalcitrant gougery won't be a reflex.
Oh, I hear you: They'll want to leave anyway. Don't bet on it.
Thanks to Mack and Scwartz, 2016 could be a long season. Two fifths of the offensive line---wow. But this won't last forever.
Mack said interesting things: He repeatedly referred to Shanahan's system. That was informative. It's a strong indication that Hue Jackson will NOT run a lot of zone stuff (and I was wrong).
Shanahan ran an inside zone scheme. In the past, Hue Jackson has run man schemes. Alex wouldn't have mentioned Shanahan's scheme as a factor if Hue intended to run it.
Still, Alex is kidding himself. He's good at both schemes. The zone is just easier on his brain. Everybody automatically knows who to block in a zone.
I'm still in shock, I think.
This means more. They really are going for the teardown and rebuild, at least on offense. In Mack's case, he's thirty. But Schwartz? That was stunning. They could have kept him for 7 mil/year! They rejected him for not accepting their offer!
It sounds childish, but it wasn't. These guys aren't throwing a tantrum. They did this for a reason.
There are things Hue and Sashi and company know that we don't.
...I'm sorry I can't think straight yet. But I will tell you this: Let it play out.
The Kaepernick and Manziel for Kaepernick stuff is intriguing (see that's a correct use of that word).
I earlier laughed at a guy for suggesting that the Browns take a flyer on Kaepernick, but these talks seem real. I'm not laughing any more.
Colin is due 11 million. Manziel around two million. I'm weary of NFL Radio guys saying you can't count on Johnny. Who thinks anybody has to count on somebody they hardly even pay? He's a lottery ticket. That's why teams are interested! And dont you know Chip Kelly thinks he can fix him?
Hue Jackson must think he can fix Kaepernick, too.
Well, in Hue I trust until proven wrong. Good luck Hue.
Wednesday, March 9, 2016
What the Browns Need by Joe Twelvpak
The Browns need about 19 new starters.
First, they need to sign a 33 year old guard. Next, how about a 32 year old 5'10" cornerback?
We can assume that all the Browns Free Agents will leave, and that Gordon will get suspended again, so they'll need to spend as much as they need to to replace them. Maybe they can talk Calvin Johnson out of retirement.
One thing they can do is trade down from number two and not draft a quarterback until the fourth round. They can let McCown start for two more seasons while they develop the new guy.
For insurance, they should get somebody else as old as McCown.
That's a risk, of course, but not when you consider that they probably don't win more than three games in 2016, so they can draft a quarterback then.
The Browns will need to overpay anybody who comes here. The guy who's letting me write this makes a big deal about Hue Jackson and his assistants and what Thomas and Mack and Hawkins and Dansby and those guys said but that won't matter because they have sucked forever.
I wish the Browns could have got Adam Gayce. He was the best candidate out there! He learned from the best! Peyton Manning!
Instead we got this guy who went 8-8 with the Raiders then got fired!
Well we'll get another chance after Haslam fires Jackson next January.
First, they need to sign a 33 year old guard. Next, how about a 32 year old 5'10" cornerback?
We can assume that all the Browns Free Agents will leave, and that Gordon will get suspended again, so they'll need to spend as much as they need to to replace them. Maybe they can talk Calvin Johnson out of retirement.
One thing they can do is trade down from number two and not draft a quarterback until the fourth round. They can let McCown start for two more seasons while they develop the new guy.
For insurance, they should get somebody else as old as McCown.
That's a risk, of course, but not when you consider that they probably don't win more than three games in 2016, so they can draft a quarterback then.
The Browns will need to overpay anybody who comes here. The guy who's letting me write this makes a big deal about Hue Jackson and his assistants and what Thomas and Mack and Hawkins and Dansby and those guys said but that won't matter because they have sucked forever.
I wish the Browns could have got Adam Gayce. He was the best candidate out there! He learned from the best! Peyton Manning!
Instead we got this guy who went 8-8 with the Raiders then got fired!
Well we'll get another chance after Haslam fires Jackson next January.
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
Cleveland Browns: I Have to Write Something
The mad feeding frenzy of competitors for Alex Mack and Mitchell Schwartze which Tony Grossi and others predicted hasn't materialized so far.
As yours truly pointed out, the Jaguars are not oblivious to the fact that Mack is now thirty years old, and, as I learned from Chris Porkorny, they have Stefan Wisniewski now, who is pretty good.
In fact, Chris thinks that Stefan would be a nice consolation prize for the Browns, should Mack hit the dusty trail.
Kyle Shanahan is with the Falcons now, and per Mack's former team mates, Mack wouldn't want to play for that guy again.
Mitchell Schwartze is finding out that right tackles still don't get paid like right tackles.
Based on the projected salaries for both players, their retention remains quite possible based on the new salary cap, and the team's overage.
This would make this a pretty expensive offensive line as a percentage of the cap. The knee-jerk reaction of many analysts to this is that the computers in Brown and DePodesta's heads would delete the notion.
That's not true, because the offensive line impacts every single offensive play. Aside from quarterback, it's the most important unit on offense.
Offensive linemen (league wide, anyway) are the most durable players, as well. If the budget for five starters and two depth players is, let's say, eighteen percent of the total, and signing these two push it to nineteen point five percent, that is acceptable. These guys aren't computers. They have common sense.
Chris wrote a fine article on the five players he feels the Browns should target in free agency.
He skips over Marvin Jones as a number two receiver who will be paid number one money. I don't think I agree. He has the size, speed, and Big play ability to become a number one.
People talk about how much Jones may have benefited from Green, but then Green was the primary target on most routes, and Brown shared targets with Sanu, Eiffert, and often a running back.
Chris likes Sanu, mostly because he won't cost a lot.
Germaine Gresham and Scott Chandler are interesting tight end suggestions, because they can block. Both are also good receivers, but Chandler just isn't Gronk, and Gresham is another victim of the Bruce Ariens offensive scheme. (No knock on Ariens here: But he doesn't use tight ends as receivers much).
Phil Dawson? He's 41.
Wisniewski is the most interesting guy here, since Hue Jackson drafted him as Head Coach of the Raiders. Mack is better, but Stefon is only 27.
PFF rates him a little below average as a run blocker, but above average in pass protection. I'm not familiar with the Jaguars blocking scheme, but this could make a difference here (and this is where real analysis matters: "Would he be more effective here?")
The nature of this draft will effect free agency. Defensive linemen and some 3-4 outside linebackers won't get the offers their agents promised them, because this draft is extremely deep with these players.
Somebody will probably overpay the top players here, but those just behind them will hit a wall. "Why should I pay you when I can get a guy like you for a fraction of the price in the middle of the fourth round?"
To a lesser extent, offensive linemen will be hurt (notably tackles). There are a bunch of these guys in this draft too. Real analysis factors the market in here, too.
It's not just what your own team needs, but what other teams need, and what alternatives they will have.
The Browns need to spend above the cap floor to avoid penalties. They must be players in free agency. Their most analytical approach is to target these players:
Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartze, Tashawn Gipson, and Travis Benjamin.
As yours truly pointed out, the Jaguars are not oblivious to the fact that Mack is now thirty years old, and, as I learned from Chris Porkorny, they have Stefan Wisniewski now, who is pretty good.
In fact, Chris thinks that Stefan would be a nice consolation prize for the Browns, should Mack hit the dusty trail.
Kyle Shanahan is with the Falcons now, and per Mack's former team mates, Mack wouldn't want to play for that guy again.
Mitchell Schwartze is finding out that right tackles still don't get paid like right tackles.
Based on the projected salaries for both players, their retention remains quite possible based on the new salary cap, and the team's overage.
This would make this a pretty expensive offensive line as a percentage of the cap. The knee-jerk reaction of many analysts to this is that the computers in Brown and DePodesta's heads would delete the notion.
That's not true, because the offensive line impacts every single offensive play. Aside from quarterback, it's the most important unit on offense.
Offensive linemen (league wide, anyway) are the most durable players, as well. If the budget for five starters and two depth players is, let's say, eighteen percent of the total, and signing these two push it to nineteen point five percent, that is acceptable. These guys aren't computers. They have common sense.
Chris wrote a fine article on the five players he feels the Browns should target in free agency.
He skips over Marvin Jones as a number two receiver who will be paid number one money. I don't think I agree. He has the size, speed, and Big play ability to become a number one.
People talk about how much Jones may have benefited from Green, but then Green was the primary target on most routes, and Brown shared targets with Sanu, Eiffert, and often a running back.
Chris likes Sanu, mostly because he won't cost a lot.
Germaine Gresham and Scott Chandler are interesting tight end suggestions, because they can block. Both are also good receivers, but Chandler just isn't Gronk, and Gresham is another victim of the Bruce Ariens offensive scheme. (No knock on Ariens here: But he doesn't use tight ends as receivers much).
Phil Dawson? He's 41.
Wisniewski is the most interesting guy here, since Hue Jackson drafted him as Head Coach of the Raiders. Mack is better, but Stefon is only 27.
PFF rates him a little below average as a run blocker, but above average in pass protection. I'm not familiar with the Jaguars blocking scheme, but this could make a difference here (and this is where real analysis matters: "Would he be more effective here?")
The nature of this draft will effect free agency. Defensive linemen and some 3-4 outside linebackers won't get the offers their agents promised them, because this draft is extremely deep with these players.
Somebody will probably overpay the top players here, but those just behind them will hit a wall. "Why should I pay you when I can get a guy like you for a fraction of the price in the middle of the fourth round?"
To a lesser extent, offensive linemen will be hurt (notably tackles). There are a bunch of these guys in this draft too. Real analysis factors the market in here, too.
It's not just what your own team needs, but what other teams need, and what alternatives they will have.
The Browns need to spend above the cap floor to avoid penalties. They must be players in free agency. Their most analytical approach is to target these players:
Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartze, Tashawn Gipson, and Travis Benjamin.
Monday, March 7, 2016
Browns Free Agency Analyiticsilizationalization
Terry Pluto wrote another great (almost perfect) article on Browns free agency.
Terry says Malik Jackson will cost a fortune (and he will), but asks why not Jaye Howard (KC Chiefs DE)?
Howard also had 5.5 sacks, and is great vs the run. I hadn't even heard of this guy before I read Terry's article.
Jackson will collect a stiff premium because he played for a Superbowl winner. It's also been asked, how much of what Jackson did had to do with the great players surrounding him?
Terry was right, of course, about 31 year old Mario Williams. Williams declined last season partly due to age, but also partly because he was converted from defensive end to outside linebacker. Guess what he'd play here.
Really, do we have to go nuts over every big name we hear? Shouldn't some thinking be involved?
Terry mentioned Marvin Jones
and Mohammud Sanu (yawn), but also Reuben Randall of the Giants.
Of all of these, Marvin Jones should be and probably is the top target. Sanu was moved from the outside to the slot to make room for this guy. Brown can make big plays. He has number one potential.
But Terry repeats the big fast receiver mantra, perhaps by reflex.
Terry, Josh Gordon and Terrelle Pryor (just signed) are coming back from the corn field.
This is another reason to prioritize Brown in free agency. Unlike Randle or Sanu, Jones is insurance at X-receiver.
Terry talks a lot about elementary analytics. If he understood analySIS better, he'd get that with these three receivers contending for the X slot, having it covered by 2017 is a virtual certainty, making using a high pick on a fourth one downright stoopid.
Im being extremely pessimistic. It's hard for me to bet against Josh Gordon. Just keep laughing at Pryor. Jones is well-established, and has all the tools.
None of this means that Braxton Miller wouldn't be too good to resist in the second round.
Terry says Malik Jackson will cost a fortune (and he will), but asks why not Jaye Howard (KC Chiefs DE)?
Howard also had 5.5 sacks, and is great vs the run. I hadn't even heard of this guy before I read Terry's article.
Jackson will collect a stiff premium because he played for a Superbowl winner. It's also been asked, how much of what Jackson did had to do with the great players surrounding him?
Terry was right, of course, about 31 year old Mario Williams. Williams declined last season partly due to age, but also partly because he was converted from defensive end to outside linebacker. Guess what he'd play here.
Really, do we have to go nuts over every big name we hear? Shouldn't some thinking be involved?
Terry mentioned Marvin Jones
and Mohammud Sanu (yawn), but also Reuben Randall of the Giants.
Of all of these, Marvin Jones should be and probably is the top target. Sanu was moved from the outside to the slot to make room for this guy. Brown can make big plays. He has number one potential.
But Terry repeats the big fast receiver mantra, perhaps by reflex.
Terry, Josh Gordon and Terrelle Pryor (just signed) are coming back from the corn field.
This is another reason to prioritize Brown in free agency. Unlike Randle or Sanu, Jones is insurance at X-receiver.
Terry talks a lot about elementary analytics. If he understood analySIS better, he'd get that with these three receivers contending for the X slot, having it covered by 2017 is a virtual certainty, making using a high pick on a fourth one downright stoopid.
Im being extremely pessimistic. It's hard for me to bet against Josh Gordon. Just keep laughing at Pryor. Jones is well-established, and has all the tools.
None of this means that Braxton Miller wouldn't be too good to resist in the second round.
Friday, March 4, 2016
T H I N K: This is Not the Same Old Browns
NFL Radio's talking heads sometimes remain where the sun doesn't shine in regards to the lowly Cleveland Browns.
The most consistent of these is former Jets GM Pat Kirwan. He said that Alex Mack should go to a team that could contend for a few years, and put the Browns behind him.
I'm used to Pat's immutable attitude, and it doesn't bother me. I just hope that Hue Jackson, his all-star veteran coaching staff, and the new front office heard this.
If they did, they're insulted. "You're calling me a loser before my first draft?"
Of course, Hue is a little spoiled. Everybody including Kirwan thinks very highly of him.
Ross Tucker last season called the Browns roster the worst in the NFL. Ross is my favorite analyst, but I don't understand this, when the Browns played in the very same division as the Ravens.
We can skip the whole starting offensive line and secondary, plus Dansby, Barnidge, Thomas, Benjamin, Des Bryant, Shelton, and Duke. I would like to hear Ross identify one starting or rotational player who was below average (yes including Hartline).
Can you? Is Roberts below average? Well, he gets washed out at the point of attack vs the run, but is all over the field, gets a ton of tackles, and covers well. You need to dig deeper.
If I had Ross in front of me, I know I'd change his mind. Ross Tucker isn't a blockhead like Pay Kirwan. He's not a Yabut guy. I would go through the players one by one and have him rate them, then show him the results. He would say "Okay you got me, but name me a team that was worse".
I would name the Ravens. Maybe the Saints. Or the Rams.
Kirwan made up his mind years ago, and will go down with his ship. But Ross drives me nuts, because when his co-hosts snicker and pick at the Browns, he's the one to mention McCown 3.0, Duke, Danny, Travis, Gary, the Joe's, etc. to elicit the "Yabut"'s.
One caller was a Carson Wentz fan, and hoped he would go to Dallas. He even compared him to Romo, saying that just when you think he's sacked, he's the rare guy who will time and time again pull a rabbit out of his hat.
Then he said he loves the guy, and really hopes he doesn't go to the Browns. I can excuse a caller from North Dakota, but not the analysts who agree.
Yeah, going to Cleveland under Hue Jackson and Josh McCown would be horrible for a young quarterback.
Alex Mack's agent says he could come back. This is being dismissed as a leverage ploy, but it's not. Joe Thomas wasn't negotiating. Mack himself wasn't lying when he himself expressed confidence in the new staff.
The players know. This is new. This thing is about to turn around. It's not some guy on a blog talking candy canes and lolly pops. It's great coaches and brilliant front office people. It's a new second overall quarterback.
Mary Kay and Tony expect Mack to be offered over ten million a year. That's possible. But the new salary cap is increasing, and along with it so is the team budget.
Don't assume that these new Browns won't match the offer. Also, let me remind you: Alex Mack in 2015 was ranked sixteenth by PFF, he is thirty, and his priority is the proportion of guaranteed money, not the gross amount.
The Browns may not have to top what Mack is offered. They can guarantee more of it, or add a year to it. Sashi Brown can front-load the cap hit so that the biggest hit is in 2016. Mack can have more up front to invest, and still know that he'll get paid until he's thirty four or so even if he gets hurt.
Pat Kirwan would shake his head and roll his eyes. Why would Mack stay with that team?
Ross could tell him: Wentz/Goff, Thomas, Barnidge, Gordon, Duke, Danny, Des, Haden, Nate, Paul, Hue, etc.
Dan Labbe, who I rank almost in the middle of my sources, speculated about how the Browns might replace Travis Benjamin, should the Browns lose him.
Under "internal options", Dan wrote "None. Thank you, Ray Farmer". This is idiocy. Andrew Hawkins. Than you, Ray Farmer. It's pretty obvious here that Dan doesn't like Ray Farmer, but he shouldn't let that shut his brain down.
Hawkins isn't quite as good as Benjamin, but is a super fast lilipution in the same mode. Dan skips over dumber to dumbest as he lists Mohammud Sanu as a replacement.
A big strong possession receiver is not a replacement for a microscopic super fast big play slot receiver and returner.
Dan Labbe and apparently many of you need to get outside the box here. "Wide receiver" is just a label, okay? A 175 lb shrimp is not the same as a 215 lb brute. No coach in his right mind would ever use these two players in the same way.
For your convenience, I have created two new labels: "Small, big play receiver" and "Big, possession receiver". I will send you the bill.
Dan Labbe's assessments of the other positions are a lot better, so he's not a dumbass. When you're as brilliant as my humble self, it's hard to accept that everybody else is dumber.
Anyway, Dan went from dumbest to super-dumbest here as he looked for potential Benjamin replacements in the draft, and mentioned everybody except Braxton Miller.
Wow.
The most consistent of these is former Jets GM Pat Kirwan. He said that Alex Mack should go to a team that could contend for a few years, and put the Browns behind him.
I'm used to Pat's immutable attitude, and it doesn't bother me. I just hope that Hue Jackson, his all-star veteran coaching staff, and the new front office heard this.
If they did, they're insulted. "You're calling me a loser before my first draft?"
Of course, Hue is a little spoiled. Everybody including Kirwan thinks very highly of him.
Ross Tucker last season called the Browns roster the worst in the NFL. Ross is my favorite analyst, but I don't understand this, when the Browns played in the very same division as the Ravens.
We can skip the whole starting offensive line and secondary, plus Dansby, Barnidge, Thomas, Benjamin, Des Bryant, Shelton, and Duke. I would like to hear Ross identify one starting or rotational player who was below average (yes including Hartline).
Can you? Is Roberts below average? Well, he gets washed out at the point of attack vs the run, but is all over the field, gets a ton of tackles, and covers well. You need to dig deeper.
If I had Ross in front of me, I know I'd change his mind. Ross Tucker isn't a blockhead like Pay Kirwan. He's not a Yabut guy. I would go through the players one by one and have him rate them, then show him the results. He would say "Okay you got me, but name me a team that was worse".
I would name the Ravens. Maybe the Saints. Or the Rams.
Kirwan made up his mind years ago, and will go down with his ship. But Ross drives me nuts, because when his co-hosts snicker and pick at the Browns, he's the one to mention McCown 3.0, Duke, Danny, Travis, Gary, the Joe's, etc. to elicit the "Yabut"'s.
One caller was a Carson Wentz fan, and hoped he would go to Dallas. He even compared him to Romo, saying that just when you think he's sacked, he's the rare guy who will time and time again pull a rabbit out of his hat.
Then he said he loves the guy, and really hopes he doesn't go to the Browns. I can excuse a caller from North Dakota, but not the analysts who agree.
Yeah, going to Cleveland under Hue Jackson and Josh McCown would be horrible for a young quarterback.
Alex Mack's agent says he could come back. This is being dismissed as a leverage ploy, but it's not. Joe Thomas wasn't negotiating. Mack himself wasn't lying when he himself expressed confidence in the new staff.
The players know. This is new. This thing is about to turn around. It's not some guy on a blog talking candy canes and lolly pops. It's great coaches and brilliant front office people. It's a new second overall quarterback.
Mary Kay and Tony expect Mack to be offered over ten million a year. That's possible. But the new salary cap is increasing, and along with it so is the team budget.
Don't assume that these new Browns won't match the offer. Also, let me remind you: Alex Mack in 2015 was ranked sixteenth by PFF, he is thirty, and his priority is the proportion of guaranteed money, not the gross amount.
The Browns may not have to top what Mack is offered. They can guarantee more of it, or add a year to it. Sashi Brown can front-load the cap hit so that the biggest hit is in 2016. Mack can have more up front to invest, and still know that he'll get paid until he's thirty four or so even if he gets hurt.
Pat Kirwan would shake his head and roll his eyes. Why would Mack stay with that team?
Ross could tell him: Wentz/Goff, Thomas, Barnidge, Gordon, Duke, Danny, Des, Haden, Nate, Paul, Hue, etc.
Dan Labbe, who I rank almost in the middle of my sources, speculated about how the Browns might replace Travis Benjamin, should the Browns lose him.
Under "internal options", Dan wrote "None. Thank you, Ray Farmer". This is idiocy. Andrew Hawkins. Than you, Ray Farmer. It's pretty obvious here that Dan doesn't like Ray Farmer, but he shouldn't let that shut his brain down.
Hawkins isn't quite as good as Benjamin, but is a super fast lilipution in the same mode. Dan skips over dumber to dumbest as he lists Mohammud Sanu as a replacement.
A big strong possession receiver is not a replacement for a microscopic super fast big play slot receiver and returner.
Dan Labbe and apparently many of you need to get outside the box here. "Wide receiver" is just a label, okay? A 175 lb shrimp is not the same as a 215 lb brute. No coach in his right mind would ever use these two players in the same way.
For your convenience, I have created two new labels: "Small, big play receiver" and "Big, possession receiver". I will send you the bill.
Dan Labbe's assessments of the other positions are a lot better, so he's not a dumbass. When you're as brilliant as my humble self, it's hard to accept that everybody else is dumber.
Anyway, Dan went from dumbest to super-dumbest here as he looked for potential Benjamin replacements in the draft, and mentioned everybody except Braxton Miller.
Wow.
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