Cleveland Browns: Under Construction

In this article by Dan Labbe, Dan suggests we shouldn't be fooled by this Browns defense.  It's still pretty bad.

So it is.  I won't repeat Dan's article, which cites how other teams have managed the Denver offense.  I'll just say I agree.

I do need to point out, however, that I have detected signs of life.  On a scale of one to ten, and taking out the Mariota game, they were a .5 until the Ravens game.  They were a one vs the Ravens, and a 1.75 vs. the Broncos.

At this rate, they'll be at least average by the end of the season!

The offense, considering this opponent, did okay.  Especially McCown, the pass-blocking, and receivers (mostly).

Once again, of course, they couldn't run the ball.  Once again, they fell behind, and it was all on McCown.

The defense certainly helped by scoring 6 points of it's own.  With the other turnovers and this in mind, it was nothing to write home about.  But this was the best defense in football, especially against the pass.

Travis Benjamin...what can you say about this guy?  Oh I know: Wow.

This proved something: This is a good offense, despite its being one-dimensional.  Flip deserves as much credit as McCown for his substituting short throws for handoffs to get the running backs the ball in space, ala Lindy Infante.

The offensive line still needs a testosterone injection run-blocking, but has improved in pass-protection.

I know that for some fans, comments like that sound like nails on a chalkboard after a loss.  You just want to say everybody sucked and should be cut or fired.

Well, the Bengals are running away with the Division.  The Steelers just managed to beat Arizona with Micheal Vick.  The Browns can pretty much kiss the playoffs good bye.

But how many of you expected the playoffs at the start of this season?  How many penciled in a win over the Denver Broncos in week 6?

Oh, they should be doing much better, given their talent.  They should be able to run the ball on anybody, get sacks and turnovers, and at least rank in the top two thirds against the run.

But whatever the Coach might say, this is still a young team not yet ready for primetime, and this season is scheduled for further construction.

No "five year plan" crap here, please.  But three years?  Yes.  2016 is the sink-or-swim year.

Screw the money though: Cut Dwayne Bowe.  Get Pryor back.  Send the offensive line to a hypnotist or something.

And Johnny.  Johnny couldn't have done better against Denver.  It's probably too early (and unjustified) to make a change here.

But at some point, he needs to get some more reps and prove guys like Bill Cowher wrong.

I don't listen to Cowher about quarterbacks.  He had Jim Miller and started Cordell Stewart.

In 2015, the Browns can still win.  My adjusted prediction: 12-4.

Cleveland Browns: The Get Well Team

Here we go again.  Peyton Manning's offense ranks 28th in the NFL, so coming to Cleveland is his chance to silence his critics.

Yeah, Haden and Gipson are out, so Peyton will shred them.  And of course Denver will run all over this defense too.

I can't really blame anybody for expecting this.  It's pretty obvious that this entire defense has been atrocious through the first five games.

It's just that everybody expects to "get well" against the Browns, but nobody expects the Browns to ever leave intensive care themselves.

This defense last season was pretty good in the most important categories.  It was pretty obviously upgraded in the off season as well.

Hitner and others were perfectly reasonable to talk big about this year's defense, and especially this secondary.

Why is it not possible that this is finally the week that this defense stops screwing up?  Why is it always somebody else coming in here expecting the exact same suckage they saw last week?

Indeed, the Browns getting better is more likely than the reverse here.  Peyton can't run around, and despite worshipful reports to the contrary, is not as good as he has been.  

There is Rodgers and Brady.  And then there is Gramps Manning.  Just deal with that.

I'd never knock this guy.  I'm not even saying he can't still kick butt.  

But Peyton isn't the whole Denver offense, and isn't responsible for all it's problems.

Their offensive line had weaknesses even before the injury bug, and much like the Browns, they've had a hard time running the ball...

Oh I forgot!  The Brown's haven't stopped the run yet so they won't.  The Broncos will naturally run all over them.

Maybe not.  Just sayin.

Mike Hoag wrote a great article on the matchup here.  Mike thinks the Browns will lose a close, low-scoring game.  I can't argue, but it's not because of the Broncos offense.

That defense is absolutely dominating.  Maybe even historic.  I'd rather face the Seahawks than this crew.  This is the best defense, top to bottom, the Browns will face in 2015.

Mike was right about using Duke and Crow as outlet guys, and staying short.  Josh won't have time for anything else.

McCown has bought himself time with his legs, but the Broncos defenders are freaky-fast.  Even if they don't bother to contain him, they'll catch up to him before he can reset to throw.

Really, as insane as this sounds, there couldn't be a better time for the Browns running game to get well!  Tall order yes, but the Broncos are stacked more to stop the pass than the run.

As I've been saying repeatedly, this offensive line can drive people back and smash little people in space.  Our new pass-catching tight end Barnidge blocks pretty well, and under the radar the "other" Johnson, the fullback, has been working into the offense.

Some of the 2-back sets we've seen have included this bigger guy.  Many never noticed because he hasn't touched the ball yet.  But any time he's on the field, he can block.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some 22 sets vs the Broncos.  That's two backs, two tight ends.  Sometimes one of the tight ends is Cam Erving.

This is a "jumbo" run set.  The bad part is there is only one official wide receiver, but this is mitigated by Duke Johnson, who can deploy as a second one---and not necessarily on the line where he can be jammed.

Barnidge now commands respect as a receiver as well, so the Browns can do a lot out of this base-defense-demanding, unpredictable personnel set.

They can max-protect and chip and still pass.  If Wade Philips brings the house against this, you might get Benjamin single-covered between the hashes, one of the Johnsons in the flat, and another crossing behind the inside blitzers.

But in my dreams, the running game gets well here, and they actually RUN the damn ball.

I can dream, can't I?  Anyway, that's strategically how to attack this defense: Overpower it in the trenches.

I'm sure Flip will try it.  I'll be furious if, once again, I see offensive linemen stood up in space by people they outweigh by 40-plus pounds and have a running start on.

I'm sorry I forgot: Peyton.  Only the Broncos can possibly "get well" in Cleveland this Sunday.  My bad.

This just in: My comment on the Manziel thing:  Big Deal.

Cleveland Browns Stuff

Stuff others missed:

1: The Ravens were annihilated by injuries.  Even before that, Joe Flacco's contract had the predictable effect, and they had lost some top talent to the cap.

Flacco, a good offensive line, and Forsett keep them afloat, but those pundits who said the Ravens had better talent than the Browns have Stockholm syndrome.

The Browns should have beaten the Ravens by double digits.

2: What Josh McCown has done is incredible when the circumstances under which he did it are examined in detail.

The offensive line continues to massively underperform, and he has hardly ever had more than 2.5 seconds to throw. He's made several plays with people taking him down.

He's had to rally and literally carry the team on his shoulders. That's not game management.  I'm as surprised as anyone about this.

He's done it with microscopic receivers.  He has to be extremely accurate to deliver inside these much smaller catch radii, and without separation, sideline and post passes are nearly impossible.

He has no favorite target.  Everybody gets the ball.  Defenses can't key anyone.

3: Flip is great.  Throwing to the running backs offsets run blitzes.  It's a high-percentage play that short-circuits stacked fronts.  Without Flip and his scheme, the Browns and McCown would be fried.

He's now using the 2-back as I described before the season began.  It forces a base defense, then when the backs split out it spreads the defense horizontally, and renders a blitze almost suicidal.

It takes a very smart, quick-witted quarterback to make the most of this.  Flip has one.

4: Manziel is learning a LOT.  His real-game experience lets him project himself into McCown's shoes as he watches, and even to see what he sees.

On one big completion to one of the microbes, McCown stared down the barrel of a blitze and waited for the right time.  He took a shot to deliver on-time.

Johnny is much smaller, and might not be able to handle it the same way.  But he looks at these plays and figures that part out.

What he's getting the most out of is how to read things and change plays.  McCown is a true Christian, and when Johnny asks him "what did you see there that you did that?" Josh shows him on film.

By now, others see that McCown indeed gives the team it's best chance to win.  Manziel, given the extreme (and frankly ridiculous) pressure that Josh has faced could not yet have performed as well.

Privately, he is probably grateful for the chance to learn without being beaten to pulp.

5: Joe Thomas enlightened me a bit about what defenses are doing to stop the Browns.  After the Ravens game I'm upgrading the offensive line from F to D-minus.

One of the reasons McCown is looking like a Hall of Famer is because every defense is throwing the kitchen sink at the backfield and leaving guys single-covered, or sometimes not really covered at all.

The book on McCown prior to this season was that he didn't handle pressure well.  Statistically, that's irrefutable.

But now all of a sudden that's over.  I don't know what has changed, but something sure has.  Today's Josh McCown thrives on the blitze.

The kitchen sink floods the backfield and still stifles the run.

It's still a D-minus for the offensive line because Bitonio has been shoved back too often.  Defenses are targeting him, just as they target Schwartze.  Bitonio can do better.

6: The defense still gets an F, but at least they got two critical stops late...ok d-minus.  I think I felt a faint pulse.

7: Barnidge is not a fluke.  Gabriel joins Hawk and Benjamin to complete an all-microbe receiving corps.  Even Duke Johnson is sawed off.  This is unique in today's NFL.

And by the way: These are playmakers do you u n d e r s t a n d?

I have updated my database with new information.  My updated win/loss prediction is 13-3.

Baltimore Beatable by Browns

The Baltimore Ravens are in trouble due to attrition and injury.

Much is being made of Joe Flacco's historic domination of the Browns, but the teams surrounding Big Bird were a factor.

After paying Joe Flacco, Ozzie managed to hold onto a solid offensive line, and that hasn't been annihilated by injury.  They've got Joe and Justin Forsett.  But not much more on offense right now.

If Scott Solomon returns, he can move Paul Kruger back to the blind side and help out a lot by keeping Forsett inside.

As I've said, Solomon is a true linebacker.

Kruger hasn't been effective attacking from the strong side.  Solomon's return would upgrade two positions at once.

If Justin Forsett can be denied the edge, he can be stifled.  Yes, Woodhead finally sneaked through last week, but for the most part the run defense has been strong between the tackles.

If Desmond Bryant plays, that's a biggee.  Des was lighting everybody up as a passrusher.

The front seven in general has failed to generate pressure on anybody except Mariota.  It's been just infuriating.  But Kruger back on the weak side and Desmond playing could help a lot.  For that matter, Solomon himself is a good passrusher as well as run defender.

Offensively, Josh McCown has done a great job.  Yes he has.  It's called reality.

He's done this despite playing from behind with no running game, and given time best measured in nanoseconds.

As I've pointed out, the offensive line has sucked.  Not Crowell or McCown.  The offensive line needs a head extraction.  It's all their fault.  Can I make this any more clear?

Well, there's too much talent there to keep sucking like that.  They simply can't keep this up.  With Terrell Suggs also sidelined, they might get their heads out tomorrow.

Baltimore's secondary is also pretty messed up.

Superstitions and hyperbole aside, the Cleveland Browns have the Ravens outgunned and should pop this balloon.

Browns Not Good but Getting Better

The Cleveland Browns continue to underachieve.  That's right.  The talent is here, thanks to Ray Farmer.  Yes it is.  Stop it.

The offensive line, combined with a blocking scheme well-suited to it, should dominate.

The Jets and Raiders present formidable defensive fronts, so no team can dominate them, but the Browns offensive line should have done better there.

The Brown's defensive line is very talented as well, but has been pushed around too much.

Here there are some ready explanations: Aside from occasional breakthroughs, it's been solid vs the run inside, but outside the tackle box has coughed up massive yardage in big chunks.

In truth, this is more often on the outside linebackers, who are the edge-setters here, than the down linemen.

Three key defensive linemen are inexperienced.  The outside linebacker part of the pass rush has been stifled.

The problems, in fact, have been more at outside linebacker than on the line.

Nate Orchard is a rookie, Scott Solomon is injured, it's becoming evident that Barkevious Mingo will not become much more of a run defender.

So the front seven has some growth yet to accomplish.  The offensive line has no excuse.

Against the Chargers, both units showed some improvement, but San Diego's offensive line has been all but destroyed by injuries, and the Browns front should have wrecked that offense, period.

The entire offense should have functioned smoothly.  But runs still got stuffed, and McCown still got swarmed.  He made two great completions while being tackled.

The good news was that Isaiah Crowell broke some tackles, Duke Johnson emerged in a great surge, and Gary Barnidge exceeded expectations.

The offense rallied to tie the game.  It showed once again that despite pundits' opinions, this offense can come back. It doesn't quit, either.

The news wasn't all bad.  The team, overall, showed improvement.

The offensive line thing is maddening.

In this Hey Tony, written before the San Diego heartbreaker, the black helicopters, lynch mobs, and tin foil hats were in attendance.

Tony properly dismissed some of it, but tacitly endorsed some of these hysterical hallucinations.

This entry will be completed later.  After reading this article I have to take a shower now.

Ok time to feel dirty again: One guy wants to trade Manziel "in the current chaos of management and emotions"

Another guy says  "we are in year two off the farmer/pettine regime and I think it's time to move on".

Then there's the Haslam wants to lose so he can move the team and Farmer is arrogant baloney.

Here is some intelligent post-Chargers analysis by Terry Pluto.

Grossi is pretty good, but I can't see Terry letting those questions zing by like Tony did.

Terry would ask the Manziel trade guy "why?", and ask the "time to move on" guy just how long a new crew should get to establish systems and players.

I can't help but wonder if Mister "Ah say we haing em" also complains about Hair Trigger Haslam firing people all the time.

Tony talked about "proven" head coaches, and let me translate: Head Coaches that somebody else fired.

It's been a long time since Marty won 13 games and got fired.  Cowher or Gruden aren't coming back.  Every great Head Coach was an assistant first.  But that's Tony.  

Pat Kirwan, speaking specifically about Haslam and the Browns, said that a new head coach should have three years, and a veteran Head Coach should have two.

That's about right.  It goes for Farmer, too.  Look at Gilbert, Manziel, Erving, Shelton.

Johnny has already demonstrated great promise; already proven something.  Gilbert might or might not emerge as the player they envisioned, but he has to get the chance.  Erving isn't playing only because of the talent in front of him.  Shelton is already the lynchpin of the defense.  He can't stop the outside runs, but has all but shut them down inside.

The undrafteds and lower picks are too many to mention, but the most experienced of these have just entered their second season as well.

They were drafted for Mike Pettine and his system.  Fire people again, and some of them won't fit the new scheme, and the new guy has to start from scratch again.

I hope Jimmy Haslam meant what he said about continuity.  And I hope he meant three years.

If he listens to Kirwan, this will have a chance to develop.  If he listens to the mob, here we go again.

Ray Farmer Pretrial Summation by Judge Mental

The defendant Raymond Farmer stands accused of incompetence.

First of all, I had to throw out some of the evidence the prosecutor tried to use.  Ray Farmer has only been in charge of personnel here for a little over one year.  He is only responsible for decisions which he made.

It then follows that, given the duration of that tenure, all references to the Browns' history at quarterback situation are irrelevant, except in the narrow context of Johnny Manziel, Josh McCown, and Brian Hoyer.

Fortunately for the Prosecution, Mister Twelvpak, I find some of his evidence compelling and relevant.

Mister Farmer has had four first round picks.  Justin Gilbert has, thus far, been a major disappointment.  The fact that a Sammy Watkins or other receiver could have been the pick instead also applies, as does Rays refusal to address this position in the draft.

Mitigating against this, however, is the fact that Sammy Watkins has not thus far met expectations himself, and the fact that it is not at all uncommon for cornerbacks to struggle early in their careers.

While it is valid to question the logic of a pick, thus the judgement of the picker, it is not valid to assume any result this early.  On the Gilbert issue, I must lean against Mister Farmer, but cannot make a ruling.

This goes double for Mister Manziel, who is a quarterback.

I refuse to consider the two first round picks from the most recent draft, of course.  Neither the Prosecutor nor I are qualified to make those calls this early, and one of us knows it.

Both sides brought in expert witnesses.  On balance, this weighed against Gilbert, but for Manziel.  I found Mister Staubach's testimony especially informative.

I of course find the aggregate of this insufficient to warrant a trial.  With all due respect to the Grand Jury at the Greenwich Tavern, they are patently in error.

The Prosecution based it's case almost exclusively on these first round picks and the wide receiver position.

Mister Coyote, speaking for the defendant, rightly points out that a General Manager must be evaluated on the sum total of his moves.

Indeed, the draft is one part of this, and the first round, in turn, only one part of that.

The defense is also correct that no draft can be accurately evaluated until after the end of the third season following it.

The decisions which can be judged here are the veteran free agents.

A cursory scan of those players who left, and those who were signed, shows a solid competence, except in the glaring case of Dwayne Bowe.

While I am tempted to recommend a trial on this basis alone, it hardly outweighs the many other signings or non-signings or trades (notably the trade with Indianapolis) which went well.

I leave this matter open.  If, after the end of the 2016 season, Mister Twelvpak wishes to refile, I will hear this matter again.

For now, I find that a trial would amount to vigilanteism, and refuse to allow it.

Case closed.  For now.

Cleveland Browns: OK, Time to Panic

I should never have let Ray O Sunshine do my last blog.  He tends to be overly optimistic, unlike my humble self.

The calls for Johnny early were ridiculous.  The problem was the offensive line, and Manziel would have been swarmed under too.

A couple columns ago, I ripped some dumbass for calling this line Joe Thomas and a bunch of turnstiles, and find it disgusting that at least for this game, that stopped clock was right.

If McCown had more than about 2.3 seconds all day I didn't see it.  Bitonio got his head handed to him, and Schwartze vs Khalil Mack?

A friend wondered if Alex Mack was the same since his injury, and after my initial "are you nuts?" reaction, I have to wonder about that myself.

Don't bash the running backs, either.  Where the hell were they supposed to go?  Until a running back with an eight foot vertical leap comes out, nobody could run through the solid walls of defenders I saw yesterday.

All the same, McCown did come back strong once the Raiders got a little tired and backed off a tad to protect their lead.  

The defense was indescribably bad too.  The whole defense.

Give the Raiders credit here.  This is a good team, ok?  If you're living in yesterdayland, you don't get that.  But Carr isn't a rookie anymore, they got Amari Cooper, a truly impressive front seven, and they might well be a playoff team this season.

I know, you always want to blame the Browns and think the opposing team has nothing to do with a loss, but you're wrong.

My issue is that the Browns are at least as talented as these guys (except at wr and qb), with top ten talent at four positions on the offensive line, and they should have won at home!!!

Ray is pointing out the big comeback.  Yes, that was pretty cool.  And how about that catch by Hartline?  Between his knees, rolling over and over and it never touches the ground?  I've never seen anything like that!

Now, Here is an example of knee-jerk analysis by Casey Drottar.  It's McCown's fault.  

Casey doesn't seem to understand the type of coverage the Raiders used.  Defensive backs were making sure the Browns receivers couldn't beat them deep.  They risked short completions to do it.

Casey says teams know that McCown lacks the arm for deep passes.  That's really, really dumb, Casey. 

Number one, a receiver needs to be able to get deep.  Number two, deep passes require what we call "time".  Number three, nobody but you and some barstool gms has ever counted arm strength among McCown's flaws.

That pass rush contained and flanked.  If you think Manziel wouldn't get clobbered just as quickly, you're out of your mind.

Casey was right about McCown missing some open receivers...like on at least three occasions.  He was rattled, even on the few occasions when he wasn't forced to throw early.

But he did come back later.  Without run support, and when the Raiders knew he had to pass.

He was a little off on the interception.  Woodson baited that trap.  Know why?  Because he and other sentient beings knew that Josh was almost out of time and had to take more risks.  Any quarterback who doesn't like to lose will.

It was the offensive line, Casey.  Second and third and longs and instant pressure all day ruins any quarterback's day.

You want Johnny in that hot mess before he's good and ready?  Good way to make sure he fails.

No surprises here.  Casey somehow managed to poison penproof Alex Mack and the left side of the offensive line.  He expected to see them do fine, and somehow managed to see it.  Ask Crowell and McCown about that.

Well, I now have to adjust my w/l prediction based on this new information:

14-2.