Trades, Kalil, Hoyer, and Business 101

  The above chart speaks for itself-especially when you compare number four with number fifteen.  Don't be alarmed by the zero at twenty-two--it's a fluke, but Tom can trade out to make sure.


You may well have seen this in the Plain Dealer already (thanks guys), along with the article which also listed second and third-round all-pros.  There are fewer of these, of course duh.


Let me point out that the real downtrend in the above chart doesn't really start until number twenty eight, and more all-pros came from twenty six and twenty seven than from four.


True analysis requires more depth.  I'd like to see a by-position analysis, but I can tell you that there will be more left tackles and quarterbacks near the top, and more RIGHT TACKLES, RUNNING BACKS, WIDE RECIEVERS, DEFENSIVE ENDS, CORNERBACKS, AND LINEBACKERS near the bottom.


I know Richardson is awesome, but I think with my brain.


Now: Jim Miller is a former NFL Quarterback who is now a commentator and analyst on NFL Radio.


After Stephen Hill's atrocious short-shuttle and other non-40 drills at the combine, Pat Kirwin and others pretty much wrote him off as a track-star who wouldn't be able to get open short or intermediate in the NFL.


That's bad in general, but I need to point out to you in Oblivia that it's especially bad in a West Coast reciever.  You see, the West Coast offense is different from other offenses DO YOU UNDERSTAND?


However, yesterday Jim Miller took off on Stephen Hill.  He said that he gets open, he cuts, and that when he compares him to Floyd, he kind of thinks that Hill is actually the second best wide reciever in this draft.


Miller played in both vertical passing and West Coast offenses.  He doesn't pay as much attention to combine numbers as he does to game films.


His further comments were enlightening to me (since my mind wasn't closed).  Hill has two inches in height on most of the tallest NFL wide recievers, giving him an exponentially higher reach advantage to go with his superior leaping ability.


Miller described a "go" route, as an example.  In a go route, the wide reciever goes vertical along or a little outside the hash marks.  The cornerback tries to run with him and muscle him toward the sideline.


First, few, if any, NFL corners can keep up with Hill in a footrace.  Second, who's going to muscle this guy anywhere?  Finally, how accurate does the quarterback even have to be to drop a ball in that huge a window?  (Anywhere between the reciever and the sideline).


Jim didn't address the West Coast, but this fits.  Hill probably can't consistantly shake man coverage on crosses and slants, but can defeat bumps and push people around.  He can out-leap, out-reach, and wall defenders off.


Think about it: A cornerback HAS to stay behind him on these patterns, keeping him between himself and the quarterback.  If Hill gets deep leverage, his job is to turn vertical, and he can't be caught.  If the safety isn't there to keep a lid on him, it's over.


I am now a Stephen Hill fan.


Now, back to the chart:  Tom Heckert is a good judge of talent.  If the Browns were to trade down to fifteen for two more second round picks, he could get Hill, Wright, and/or Floyd-then maybe Cordy Glenn, Wilson, Levonte David...I could go on, with six picks on the top 70.


The plan before was to add some parts and pieces this season and contend in '13, but, IF Heckert trades, he can fill every hole on this team NOW.  The Browns could get right in Cinci/Baltimore/Pitt's grills.


If there aren't any great offers, then I'll be happy to get that stud Richardson.  But if somebody else wants him or Kalil bad enough to cough up some high picks, trading down is just common sense.


One last note: Kalil is a left tackle.  If the Browns were to draft him, he'd be angry.  He'd simmer and bubble throughout his rookie contract, and in the final year of it start making noise about left tackle money.  Who could blame him?


And then he'd be gone, for zero compensation.  That's the main reason why you don't draft another Joe Thomas and make him play right tackle.


On quarterback: Hoyer is the New England backup who fits the (sigh) WEST COAST system, ok?  Forget the other immobile guy with the huge arm that will require at least a third round pick.


Hoyer is quick, athletic, and ACCURATE.  He was described as a West Coast quarterback at his combine.


No, Belichick doesn't hate him.  That's why he said he's ready to trade EITHER of his backup quarterbacks!  He'll just take the best deal and keep whichever one is left.  


T H I N K!


YOU STAND CORRECTED.

A Browns Draft SANITY Injection

1: Kalil and Thomas would undeniably be awesome. Until the end of Kalil's rookie contract (if not sooner), at which time he would demand LEFT tackle money. Rightfully so. Who do you cut so you can afford two left tackles?

2: The Cleveland Browns need: A right tackle, wide reciever, and outside linebacker.
They should upgrade: Right defensive end, running back, left guard, cornerback.
They could use: Everything.

3: The Browns were 4-12 last season. They are young and rebuilding. Teams in contention with well-established systems and talent need one or two exceptional players to put them over the top. Rebuilding teams need five or more good players, and projects with potential, so that they can BECOME contenders.

4: If Richardson were a quarterback, I'd say don't trade down. Since he's not, trading down (for the right deal(s) is COMMON SENSE.

5: Backfield-by-comittee means you don't have one guy to carry the ball 25 times. MOST teams, including the playoff teams, use several running backs. It is irrational to wonder if Heckert and company are over-estimating their running backs because you can't point to one who can carry the ball 25 times.
A: Converted wide reciever Oboneyya is 6', 225, and emerged last season to kick some butt. It is irrational to suggest that a former wide reciever can't catch. It is irrational to pretend that he didn't do what he did. He enters his fourth season in the NFL at his new position, and could be a major sleeper right here on this roster. Did I say he could be as good as Richardson? No, I did not, so stop right there.
B: Second-year fireplug Armond Smith tore everybody up in preseason last year, but fumbled. He is a huge big-play threat who can catch, but may also lack the stature to ever become a really good blocker...I don't know. I do know that if he can prove to the staff that he can be trusted not to turn the ball over, he will play. He could also be a huge sleeper.
C: Brandon Jackson is a journeyman who can catch. He's okay--but overrated.
D: Owen Marecic was a R O O K I E last season, and will improve this season. I just don't know how much. I do know that he's more effective catching and running the ball than Vickers, and late last season started blowing people up like him, too.
The front office and coaches have a better bead on the prospects for these players than you or I do. If they think they're better than you think they are, I'll bet on them, Einstein.

In a trade-down, I'll skip right to YOUR worst nightmare, and say it's the Eagles at 15. Yep, after more research, they could squeeze the Eagles for both second rounders. Richardson could very well put the Eagles in the Superbowl, so he could be worth it to them.
Could he put the Browns in the Superbowl in 2013? Could any one or two players even buy the the AFC North?

Let's see what crappy no-account bumb the Browns would have to hold their nose and pick at 15:

That bumb Micheal Floyd, maybe, who is vastly inferior to the much-better Blackmon? Nah!
David deCastro the Fannika/Hutchinson-like left guard? Why would we want him? We need a right tackle! He wouldn't help at all! What would we do with Pinkston...oh yeah...
Would that be too high for that monster Cordy Glenn? He's a PROJECT! I mean, he only played right tackle a little. He was a LEFT tackle! Might be there at 22 anyway.
Obviously, none of these guys would help the Browns nearly as much as the god-like Richardson! Buncha bums! Yeah Perry and Curry the quarterback-killing defensive ends, too---bums!

As putrid as THAT is, what about Eagles pick 46? Now you got Joe Adams, the wiry little kick-returning slot reciever with the world-class speed who tore everybody up in the Senior Bowl. Or the other Adams the right tackle from Ohio State. David Wilson? Whitney Mercelus, the other quarterback-killing defensive end. Bobby Massie the underrated right tackle. Alshon Jefferey? Stephen Hill? How bout at 51? Ditto--at least one and more likely two or three of those guys.

I can't pretend to know. I mean, who ever heard of Jabaal Sheard? Answer: Tom Heckert.

So let's go nuts. Excuse me while I affix my blindfold. I got my dart boards all set up. Here goes...#15. I hit something? Oh. Sorry. Just sort of point me...ok? There! Okay now for the second round...Good. Now let's see what I got instead of Trent Richardson:

Micheal Floyd? Wait--let me make that work...okay let's say I coughed up a fourth and fifth-rounder to move up some--very iffy but I'll say we had to. Okay, Floyd. Boy, that sucks!

Okay David Wilson. Aw, now he doesn't even know how to block yet, and Richardson is huge compared to him! All he can do is catch and make big plays! Damn that sucks. And we could have had Richardson instead of him and Floyd!

Oh no--Bobby Massie. Shoot. He can't even play left tackle for awhile yet. He's a huge project who would have to start at right tackle instead. Boy that sucks.

Oh yeah, I'd much rather have Trent Richardson than probably the best West Coast wide reciever in the draft, a big-play part-time (for now) running back, and a young starting right tackle with left tackle athleticism.

Yeah, we really blew it by trading down, but don't forget at least we had #22...but we no doubt got some bum there. You can't find any good players that low in the draft.

Gimme a break.

Err Duhhh...

If the Cleveland Browns trade the No. 4 pick in the 2012 NFL draft they would be hurting their franchise for years to come and doing a major disservice to their fans, many of whom are already fed up with the team's poor draft management over the past few years.
"FEW"? WHO?
With several teams reportedly interested in acquiring the Browns' top-five pick, the team may consider trading out of the top 10 for the third time since 2009.
Via NFL.com:
The Philadelphia Eagles and St. Louis Rams are among at least four teams that have expressed interest in acquiring the Browns' No. 4 overall pick, league sources told The Plain Dealer. The newspaper said there was "a decent chance" the Browns would move down in the draft.
The Browns need to draft an impact offensive player that will sell tickets, create matchup problems for defenses and help the team win games and attract top-tier free agents.
There are several players the Browns could take at No. 4 that would make a significant upgrade to their offense's ability to score points and be more competitive.
Trent Richardson: The Alabama running back is a true playmaker and has tremendous quickness and field vision. He was a Heisman finalist with the Crimson Tide last season and projects to be a star rusher at the pro level. MIGHT WELL LAST TO 5 OR 6.
Justin Blackmon: The Oklahoma State wide receiver is a game-changing player who can dominate games with his speed and great catching ability. He destroyed the Stanford defense in the Fiesta Bowl despite playing with a thigh injury. FLOYD GOES NEXT AND IS BETTER FOR THIS SCHEME.
Michael Floyd: No. 4 might be a bit high to take the Notre Dame receiver, but there's a possibility that he could end up being the top WR to come out of this draft. He makes really tough catches and is very reliable since he's durable and has good hands. THAT'S RIGHT. A LITTLE HIGH.
Will the Browns trade the No. 4 pick?
Yes No Submit Vote vote to see results
Will the Browns trade the No. 4 pick?
Yes
37.0%
No
63.0%
Total votes: 300
Since the 2005 draft, the Browns have done a poor job selecting players at the skill positions on offense with their first-round picks. In that time, they have selected Phil Taylor (DT, 2011), Joe Haden (CB, 2010), Alex Mack (C, 2009), Joe Thomas (OT, 2007), Brady Quinn (QB, 2007) and Kamerion Wimbley (DE, 2006) with first-round picks. HECKERT/HOLMGREN HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THE LAST TWO. THEY ARE HERE NOW.
Outside of Haden, Mack and Thomas, the Browns have made some poor first-round selections recently, which means the need to draft a big-time offensive player who can score touchdowns must be addressed. Sure, Mack is a good player, but the team won't win unless they find a big-time offensive player in the draft. You cannot ignore the skilled positions. OK. FLOYD, WILSON, WRIGHT, ADAMS, JEFFERY, JONES, PEAD ETC.
Quarterback Colt McCoy is a good player, but the Browns cannot expect him to be successful next season with a lackluster receiving corps and a weak running game. It would be unfair to give up on McCoy without seeing what he can do with some real talent around him.
The Browns need to come into this draft with an offense-first strategy. Cleveland ranked 24th in passing and 28th in rushing last year, so there's no question that this draft needs to be about improving the offense. AS IN ONE PLAYER INSTEAD OF THREE?
If the Browns trade pick No. 4 it would be a slap in the face to their fans. UHH...WHAT? With picks No. 4 and 22 in the first round, the team has a real chance to draft two quality offensive players for now and the future. MUCH BETTER THAN FIVE. YES LET'S JUST SKIP RIGHT TACKLE AND MAKE SURE NOT TO GET MORE THAN ONE RECIEVER. LET'S MAKE SURE NOT TO GET ANY DEFENSIVE PLAYERS AT ALL. WE'VE GOT THREE FLAT TIRES SO LET'S GET THE BEST NEW TIRE WE CAN...WITH A FANCY RIM.
It's an opportunity the Browns cannot pass on or the team will struggle for years to come.

This is a top ten dumbest article I've ever read. We are all dumber for having read it. At no point did you approach logic or rationality. May God have mercy on your soul.

Tom's Phone on Draft Day

The Browns are in an awesome position in this year's draft. Since the top two slots are already spoken for, the Browns now essentially own the second overall pick.

The Vikings are now saying that they are open to trading their third overall pick, and I believe they're sincere. But there's enough to go around, and the number of star players plus the Browns position one slot lower/cheaper undermines them somewhat.

Those stars are the overrated Blackmon, Kalil, Richardson, the overvalued Tannehill, and Claiborne.

A note on Claiborne's rediculous Wonderlick score: This guy has a well-documented learning disability, and everyone who knows him regards him as pretty intelligent. When I was in junior high, I knew a guy who was in the "retarded" home-room, but was smart. In fact, he was a smart-ass. But he couldn't read, or learn to read, and he didn't see numbers right either.

Claiborne is similar. As I understand it, he correctly interprets the diagrams in playbooks, and learns orally better than most of the rest of us. I don't believe that his Wonderlick will cause him to slide even one slot.

After all, he projects as a press/man cornerback, and even if he WAS a dumbass, it wouldn't make much of a difference. See the man, cover the man.

But I digress.

The Browns could use a running back, but it's not a desperate need, as some clowns are saying. Former wide reciever Chris O.'s hundred yard performances are regarded as flukes. Why? He's been referred to as slow. That's crap. And now a converted wide reciever can't CATCH? The guy from Green Bay is nothing special, except as a reciever. Armond Smith is by far the fastest of the group, and is only entering his second season.

This guy is a certified hom-run hitter with borderline world-class speed. His biggest problem was fumbling, and then he's also pretty small and may have trouble blocking. Certainly not an every-down back, but certainly not a bumb, and I get sick of everybody writing these guys off after their rookie seasons. If Smith stops fumbling, he can be one of the scariest guys in the NFL.

Hardesty...well maybe...let's not talk about it. Dumb move by Tom.

Would Richardson make a big difference? Hell yes! Is running back a huge need? Hell no.

So Richardson isn't critical, plus could still be available after a trade-down. Further, there are several really good West Coast backs who will fall much lower: Especially Wilson. Add him to the committee and there's a big upgrade.

Wide reciever IS a glaring need. That's as in X or Y--not slot. The Browns could use Wes Welker, but have decent slot guys, okay?

Blackmon? Not at four. Regardless of his clock-times, his game-speed isn't comparable to either of last season's top two wide recievers. His hands are good, but not great, and there are questions about his ability to separate at this level. He's unquestionably an excellent reciever, but not at fourth overall.

Micheal Floyd, in fact, shows better potential for a West Coast scheme, and he, too, will be available after a trade-down. Kendall Wright, despite his smaller size, might still be able to play outside here.

Matt Kalil is awesome, but to draft him at four to play right tackle would be idiotic. The second-best left tackle would be there after a trade-down, and the FIFTH-best is ready to step in and start at right tackle. Might even be better there than the more athletic dancing bears who will have to protect blind sides.

Note: David DeCastro is awesome, and can play right tackle as well as guard. Randy Cross called him maybe the best offensive line prospect in this draft, including Kalil.

Claiborne? Definitely WORTH number four, but that's not much of a NEED in Cleveland.

Ok well, the rare objective observer sees Brown not losing, but having lost, a step. If he starts at cornerback next season, it's going to be a problem. Sheldon Brown, like Scott Fujita, is fading fast. Get used to it.

So there is a need at cornerback. However, with Buster Skrine and Dimitri Patterson, it's not at all urgent. Skrine is hugely underrated, and Patterson has emerged as a solid, if unspectacular player. A better pass rush made everybody look better.

Further, there are several ALMOST-Claibornes in this draft. This draft is pretty deep in cover corners. While it's nice to dream about Hanford and Minnie revisitted, and the domination that would enable, offense is far more critical in 2012.

After reading and listening to more expert analysis (and the ignorant kind too), I now sincerely doubt that the Browns would draft Tannehill fourth overall.

The "urgency" at quarterback is non-existant. McCoy did as well as he was allowed to do. He did look shaky sometimes--he did make mistakes and was innacurate throwing on the run. But Gannon, Miller, and Brandt have tried to tell everybody that this will happen to ANY quarterback who is constantly getting the snot knocked out of him.

While due to his stature and arm, the odds are against Colt emerging as a true franchise quarterback are fairly long, the odds of him becoming a very good system quarterback given an average running game, decent recievers, and average protection are very good.

The Browns could easily net a third round choice, and perhaps a fourth next season, to move down just two slots in a trade with the Rams. They could get a second and more from Miami to move down to 8.

Even at 8, they could for sure land David deCastro, Cordy Glenn, Micheal Floyd...they'd have a shot at Richardson, and maybe even Claiborne! How can anybody say that ANY of these guys wouldn't be huge difference-makers? How could anybody in their right minds be upset with that, when with that high second round pick they could get:

RB David Wilson, Cordy Glenn (his projections are all over the map), OT Jonathan Martin (will be awesome at right tackle), well-named DE Whitney Merciluss (an EVERY-DOWN certified quarterback-killer), or some other stud that we can't see (but Tom can)?

This second round is full of instant impact players and starters. The best WEST COAST wide reciever in this draft is rated number two. The best RIGHT tackle might just be the top GUARD, and they have Pro-Bowl potential all the way to six. The most promising running back behind Richardson is ranked by most number four or even number five! The FIFTH-rated cornerback will probably start immediately and be pretty damn good.

Trading down isn't just smart. It's common sense. They'll get an instant impact player at number 22, and they could trade down TEN slots and STILL get a major stud at 14!

If the Browns can trade down, maybe a lot, and maybe more than once, Tom Heckert can fix this team for a long time to come, all in this one draft.

TRADE DOWN.

I HAVE SPOKEN.

Underrated Guys the Browns Might Get Cheap

1: WIL backer Danny Trevathan, Kentucky. He's 6'1", 231, which partly explains his lowly status among the linebackers in this class. Level of competition is another reason. I haven't found his combine numbers yet, but can safely assume that they weren't impressive enough to overcome these issues. So stipulated.

But he had 144 tackles, including 16 for losses, with 3 sacks, 4 forced fumbles and 4 pass break-ups. Despite his light weight, he was an excellent run-stopper and a hard hitter. He can cover and blitze as well. He has the frame to gain a good ten pounds without sacrificing his irrefutable G A M E speed.

Other OLB's do look more promising here, but the Browns do now have a ton of day 3 picks, and this guy could even go undrafted!

2: OT/G Bobby Massie, Mississippi. I can't seem to get a scouting report on this guy, but what made me take another look at him were the two photgraphs I saw. This guy can't have more than 12% body fat. I mean he's just BIG, from top-to-bottom, without a big pot-belly or huge butt.

He has the feet and quickness to play right tackle, and is a road-grading run blocker. He's 6'6", and (per scout.com) 325, although I've seen him called 340 and 317. His 5.26 40 time aint that hot, but isn't uncommon for R R RIGHT tackles. I said R I G H T tackles, which are not left tackles.

Because he's not a left tackle prospect, he automaticly ranks behind those who are, and better-known guys like Mike Adams or even Zebrie Sanders could go ahead of him too. Massie could go as high as the third round, but could well slide into the fourth, where he'd be a great deal.

3: Joe Adams, WR, Arkansas . This is a repeat--already talked about this little big man who gets no repect.

Contrary to polular ignoramity, SLOT reciever is NOT an area of "deperate", "glaring" need on the Browns, as Jordan Norwood was one of the few bright spots last season. And Mike Adams is a probably slot reciever in the NFL. Still, it's like having a McCoy and wanting an RG3--only this time Adams has a chance to make it all the way into the fourth round.

Again, Adams OWNED the Senior Bowl, making more than one quarterback look good and embarrassing several cornerbacks. Outside, inside, short or deep didn't matter. He gets open, catches, breaks tackles at 178 lbs. believe it or not, and can usually outrun everybody else on the field. Just would need a lot of work on the precise reads and routes he'd face in this offense.

I can't speak to Adams' ability to learn this--not all recievers can--but IF he can, Norwood can also play outside in this offense.

He might not slide that far, though, since he's also an awesome returner who could instantly take some of that stuff off Cribbs.

4: Another repeat: DE Adrian Hamilton, Prairie View A&M. Coached and recommended by former second round pick/Buffalo Bill DE Gabe Northern, who says he's better than he was. Small school, 6'2", 245 all make him slide despite his record TWENTY and a half sacks.

Incredibly, Scout.com doesn't even LIST him at either OLB or DE, and I'm not sure he was even invited to the combine. The report I had projected him to go in the sixth round, and oh boy do the Browns have a shot at a steal here!

Comment about WR Micheal Floyd: He's better than Blackmon, especially for this offense. He's not a real burner who can take the top off a defense, but makes big plays anyway. His routes, wingspan, and quickness make him IDEAL for a West Coast offense. If the Browns traded down or got lucky enough to nab him at 22, I'd be happier than most other fans, because I comprehend how the West Coast works.

Listen to me again: Jerry Rice clocked over 4.6 in the 40. He caught the vast majority of big-play and touchdown catches within fifteen yards of the line of scrimmage. By your definition, the San Fransisco 49ers NEVER had a real "burner" for the duration of it's dynasty.

They had wide recievers like Gregg Little and Floyd, who do their damage after the catch.

But oh yeah...they still tried to double-cover Jerry Rice as he crossed and slanted...imagine that!!!

Finally I read a presumably amateur column about why the Browns should draft Tannehill. It was mostly pretty good/persuasive, but I got a problem with this:

The writer first described colt McCoy as "not too quick on his feet". McCoy is highly mobile. THEN, he says the same thing about Tannehill, two sentences before he mentioned the fact that he played wide reciever.

This is a problem: It seems that in the wake of the RG3 swing-and-miss, HIS mobility has become STANDARD for quarterbacks!!!

If you can outrun most defensive ends and linebackers, you're more mobile than most quarterbacks. Please beam back down and stop calling former wide recievers immobile.

West Coast Offense 101, Logic 101

West Coast wide recievers run predominantly slants and crossing patterns. Bigger, taller recievers are preferable because they can use their bodies and reach to secure the ball in traffic against safeties as well as cornerbacks, can break a tackle or two, and can block.

ALSO important is the ability to S E P A R A T E from defenders. This is why Brian Robiskie couldn't hack it here-he couldn't make a cut and gain a step or two on a man cornerback.

The three-cone, short shuttle, and other drills are used at the NFL combine for a reason. They measure quickness; suddenness-in stops and starts and changing directions. Changing directions, as in making cuts in pass patterns. Are you with me so far?

Stephen Hill was atrocious in all of these drills at the combine. He has indisputably unreal straight-line speed, but lacks the hips and athleticism to separate on bread-and-butter West Coast patterns. He will have a hard time running anything but post patterns in any NFL offense, but might be able to function in a few as an extra reciever.

Don't ignore these other drills. They're intended to measure "football" speed and separate the track athletes from the football players. Stephen Hill is NOT a prospect for this team.

(Sigh)...the Browns don't expect to contend in 2012. Quit saying they can't afford a project at number four, citing 2012's win/loss record as the reason. And quit assuming that taking Tannehill would mean a 3-13 season or something!

This is idiotic. This team is loaded with starters and heavy contributors who were rookies last season, just learning the ropes. Last season was the first in a 4-3 defense and a West Coast offense. Running back Rodney Obeneyafield did run for 100 yards a couple times, and I'm not sure why everybody keeps pretending he and Carlton Mitchell don't exist, and that players entering their second and third seasons won't improve. I repeat: Idiotic.

Keep asking "how has the team been improved?" It's improved simply because there are a TON of young players naturally, and almost inevittably IMPROVING. D U H.

Former college left tackle/prematurely starting left guard Todd Pinkston? He's being trained by LeCharles Bentley at his highly-regarded offensive line school. Dude means business. Le Charles will give him quicker feet, among other things, and I will not be surprised if he doesn't come back ready to play right tackle. At least, he'll be a much-improved guard.

Tannehill only took shotgun snaps? Who makes this stuff up? His head coach was the Philbin who is the Dolphins new offensive coordinator, and there were a lot of West Coast principles in the offense he ran. He is more prepared for the West Coast than RG or Luck! He took shotgun snaps and snaps from under center--about like the freaking new England Patriots, ok?

Who told you that Tannehill would be a day one starter? The same goober that wrote this article I read said in one line that the Browns can't afford a project, and in the next defended McCoy as the incumbent starter. Projects don't start. It's why they're called "projects". Where's the "disruption" this guy refers to? In the baseball cap, holding the clip-board?

McCoy will start, whether Tannehill is here or not. And if he tears up the league, one of the two can be traded in 2014 or so!

Please, for Pete's sake, try to grasp that this team is rebuilding, and not aiming at the Superbowl in 2012! The models are obvious: New England, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, the Giants. Built through the draft, for the long term. Most of their starters were drafted by them, and many didn't start until their second or third seasons.

This team is obviously not on a par with them yet, but are rebuilding following their model.

The immediate needs for the Cleveland Browns offens are one offensive lineman (maybe a right tackle), one wide reciever, and maybe one running back...and you don't think they can find them at 22, high in the second, third, and fourth? You think one draft pick is "wasted" on a future franchise quarterback? That is screws up the whole draft?

Illogical. Irrational. Stop it.

Q U A R T E R B A C K DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?

That's right. Ryan Tannehill plays quarterback. He is not a project safety, or tackle, or wide reciever. He is a project quarterback, who is currently being groomed by the same guy that groomed Cam Newton (who himself thinks he's awesome).

The majority of people compartmentalize (easy on the "mental") way too much. Somebody says "You simply have to get an instant impact player with your first round pick, especially if it's a high one. They make way too much money not to contribute immediately". This becomes not the rule of thumb, but THE RULE.

Logic, reason, disengaged. No more thought required, no madder wudd! Nevermind the new ROOKIE SALARY STRUCTURE, for instance.

I read a brilliant article by this guy, and can't find it again, but he's right there with Terry Pluto. I'll try to dig it up again so I can give my audience of crickets a link.

Anyway, he points out that yes, picking quarterbacks in the first round is risky. Only 53% of them eventually emerge as "franchise" types. Then, he points out that it's more like about seven or eight percent of the quarterbacks taken in rounds 2 through 7.

Among the first round "failures" listed were Tim Couch and Brady Quinn. In the Couch draft, Achille Smith was the second quarterback taken (by the Bungles), making Donovan McNabb the third quarterback taken...

Couch compiled a pretty good rookie season on a brand-new team with a brand new system and brand new coaches and team mates. Then the chronic tendonitis in his elbow destroyed his accuracy and eventually his arm fell off. Tim Couch was not a bust. His elbow was--so shut up with that.

He wasn't helped any by head Coach Chris Palmer, who steadfastly refused to include ANY roll-outs or shotgun formations in his offense to take advantage of his enate skill-set and help him develop in the pocket.

But I digress: 53% doesn't make it a crapshoot. Tom Heckert was with the team that selected McNabb over Culpepper in the same first round. Some evaluators are better than others. I can't prove it, but I believe that the Eagles had McNabb targetted all along, and would have drafted him over Couch or Smith. I personally liked him better, but am clueless compared to these guys.

Aaron Rodgers' weakenesses included his Colt McCoy height and questionable arm strength. He was drafted low in his first round specificly to ride the pines behind Brett Favre. I'm sure that some of the Packer faithful thought that was idiotic at the time. There are many other examples of first round, including high first round picks, who were drafted to ride the bench for a year or longer.

These were not always dominant teams, either. If there is a rule among REAL NFL GM's, I have heard it articulated by Gil Brandt, Pat Kirwin, and others. In their exact words, this is it: "IF YOU SEE A GUY THAT YOU BELIEVE CAN BE A FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK, YOU MUST TAKE HIM, EVEN IF YOU ALREADY HAVE A QUARTERBACK YOU LIKE."

Quarterback is unique. It's the most criticly important position on the team, and guys with franchise ability are very, very rare. A Ray Lewis or Adrian Peterson can help a team a whole lot, but a McNabb, Rodgers, or (yes) Roethsenberger can carry an otherwise average team into the playoffs and beyond.

All but two of the Superbowl quarterbacks over the last ten years were first round picks. The talent is evident. These guys know what they're doing. Of the failures, with Couch it was his arm--a purely physical issue. With others, it was arrogance, lack of commitment, other injuries, or even drugs.

NOTHING is a sure thing! What if you draft Richardson and he breaks his leg? He's a running back--the odds are that he won't even make it through his first season uninjured. What about Braylon Edwards? Stop yammering about "risk". Those who never take risks get beat by those with more guts and imagination. Every time.

This is all academic if Heckert and company don't think Tannehill has that sort of potential. They won't draft him. But if they feel he does, they will. I say WILL, regardless of fan polls etc.

#4 is too high, you say? Everybody agrees. But the market is the market, and McShea was right: Tannehill has the same kind of potential as Luck or RG3. No, he didn't say that he was just as good as those two. He said he had the same kind of talent and potential, so quit calling him an idiot. Dumb people always skip the thinking part, leap to conclusions, and hear what they want to hear.

Tannehill is a year or so behind the other two guys. The fact that he was a very good wide reciever before he was a quarterback is GOOD, not bad.

And listen: Part of the reason his stock has shot up after his Pro Day was due to the fact that he demonstrated great improvement in his mechanics, since being tutored by Chris Weinke and company. Don't make a big deal about his throwing "against air" to familiar recievers. All the talent scouts look for is mechanical proficiency and accuracy. These drills include throwing while rolling right and left, etc.

His stock has shot up because he's showed great progress physicly in a short time, and demonstrated franchise-type physical proficiency now...before the draft.

Take Tannehill at four, and you still have #22 and high second, third, and fourth round picks. With the four compensetories, they can use their original picks to trade up, and roll the dice on injured guys, small school kids, and projects in the lower rounds.

Nor is the "supporting cast" situation as "urgent", or "desperate" as it's being portrayed.

1: Massequoi played well when on the field and healthy. Those who say he didn't are watching the theatre of their minds, and seeing what they wanted to see. Lumping him in with Robiskie, and laying off some of Little's drops on him too.

2: Little dropped a bunch of passes early, but showed much better hands the later in the season he got. His season-long stat-line is almost horrific, but that's for lazy or stupid people. Break this stuff into halves and quarters, and you see progress. That's what Heckert and co. do: think with their brains.

3: You're writing off Cameron after his rookie season? Are you out of your damn mind?

4: The other tight ends are solid to exceptional as recievers, and this West Coast will use them a lot.

5: The next right tackle could be on the roster already, Steinbach could return at a lower salary, and Mitchell entering his third season should be ready to challenge for playing time at wide reciever-and HE could be a home-run threat. Whether any of this happens, who's to say? But Browns fans have the annoying tendancy to ignore all such positive variables.

I still love 4.4 running back David Wilson in the second or third round. If he had more experience pass-blocking, hadn't played in a spread offense, and hadn't outrun his blockers too often, he'd be right behind Richardson in the first round. ALL of this is fixable, though, and he's a home-run hitter with good hands.

If, by 2013 or 2014, Tannehill can start and become a franchise quarterback, DRAFT HIM, period. If McCoy turns into the next Joe Montana, all the better!