Actually, the Browns Draft Didn't Suck After All

First, this correction is urgent: The Browns don't lack depth at nose tackle.  They might be deeper at nose tackle than any other NFL team.  Rubin can play nose tackle (quite well) DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

At first I was infuriated by what Banner did in the draft.  And Tony Grossi might be right about what could have happened had they traded down rather than draft Mingo; basicly Jarvis Jones (or something) and a second-rounder--one of the two players being a cornerback.

But not being a blockhead, I had to try to understand why they did what they did by walking a block or so in their shoes, and considering the fact that Ray Horton had a lot to do with this pick.

There were three elite 3-4 OLB's in this draft, and Mingo was one of them.  Mingo is the quickest, and fastest.  His college production was harmed by how he was used in his scheme.  He was a nominal DE on the strong side, where he was double-teamed and had to set the edge often.  He was rotated out quite a bit, missing plays.

Tony was wrong to compare him to Kimerion Wimbley, because Mingo already has a variety of pass-rush moves which Wimbley never developed.  Counter-moves seem enate in him, as he suckers blockers with head-fakes and uses his hands like a kung fu guy. He's taller, with better reach than Wimbley.  He's even quicker, and faster.

Mingo is also quicker and faster than Jordan and Ansah.

Tony was right in suggesting that opponents will run right at him, and that he needs to get bigger.  But this has been overstated, as I learned from Mike Krupka and Pat Kirwan. Playing in the SEC against formidable offensive linemen and tight ends, he usually succeeded in setting the edge, and excelled (I repeat excelled) in getting off blocks.

Where Ansah would use a rip and leverage to force the lineman off-balance and then shed him, Mingo extends his hands more and uses his superior balance and quickness more--but he succeeded.

One game the amatuers looked at had Mingo playing contain against a scrambling quarterback.  He usually got parallel to the QB and stopped.  It was obvious to me that that's what he was supposed to do--stop the quarterback if he tried to run.  They turned this into him getting shut out by the right tackle.  How ignorant.

Kirwan said several times that those who say that Barky can't deal with blocks are wrong, and cites several times that he saw Mingo actually engage a guard with his shoulder, and then bounce right or left to make a tackle without giving an inch.  He's 240, but none of it's fat.  He's wiry.

Opposite Paul Kruger, who is bigger, shorter, and relies much more heavily on leverage, Mingo is the most strikingly dissimilar type that was available in this draft class. Horton can move these two around opponent-by-opponent to find the best matchups.

Mingo didn't cover much in college, but did cover enough to show how capable he is in that phase.  He can not only drop back into a zone, but can actually run and change directions with tight ends and big recievers in man.  Jordan can do this too, but Ansah probably never will.  With more experience, Mingo probably becomes the best of them in coverage.

Look at the tapes, and you see it: He moves like a cornerback.  Even when he blitzes from the edge, it looks almost like a cornerback blitze.

The way is was with Kruger and Sheard, you really don't want either of those guys in coverage.

It seems like Horton is zeroed in on speed, as first he tries Robertson at ILB, then they don't draft an ILB, but do draft the fastest OLB available.

Now, if they had traded down, I don't believe they would have drafted Jarvis Jones.  He is another leverage guy, like Sheard and Kruger.  High risk in coverage.  Certainly a great player, but not like Mingo.

I liked McFadden in the third round.  He's really about one inch shorter than Joe Haden, and is a really good cornerback.  The "Honey Badger" actually missed two appointments with NFL teams on the eve of the draft, and frankly doesn't project well to playing outside in a press/man scheme in the NFL.

I was initially infuriated when the Browns traded for yet still another slot reciever in Devone Bess.  I'm biased, because Nelson actually had slightly better stats, Norwood was never given a fair shot, Benjamin shows great upside, and then there's that Brian Brennan-like Josh Cooper kid who will now probably get kicked to the curb.

But then I found out that all they did was flip a couple picks not far apart, and got the guy almost for free (and cheap cap-wise).  Now I think it was a good move.  Bess is strictly a possession guy, but very durable and consistant, and still just 27 years old.

And while this "eggzzbeereeunzz" stuff for recievers is massively overstressed, it IS good to have this guy in here to help guide the youngsters.

Trading the 4th and 5th rounders for 2014 3rd and 4th-rounders was a good move too. Two thirds and two fourths so far next season is some nice ammo to trade up with, should Weeden/Campbell fail, or should the Browns be in range of a true future franchise guy even if they don't, or even if they just want to load up.

Banner is absolutely right: they're not going to the Superbowl in 2013, and they are building this thing to last.

I also liked that the third rounder next season will be Pittsburgh's, since Pittsburgh will suck.

Wish I could say the same about Baltimore and Cinci, but I can't.  Damn Ozzie....

Bryant and Gilkey are more than just afterthoughts.  Gilkey will be in the mix immediately.  I'd be surprised if he won a starting job at guard as a rookie or anything, but not if he backs up more than one position and makes the active roster.  Kind of expect one of the guards they inherited to be released.

Bryant seems to fit as an OLB, but I was surprised when Chud talked about him gaining weight.  He'd only do that if he's meant to play DE here.  Probably a practice squad guy.

And I don't care about pot.  And we all drank and drove when we were young.  If your glass house has a basement, better go there now.

Undrafted "DT" Dave Kruger is raw and inexperienced, but has freaky speed and quickness for his size.  He's much bigger than his bro Paul, and projects to DE in this scheme.  He might be another practice squad guy, but has great upside.  Look for this guy in 2014 he could turn into a monster!!!

FB Garrett Hoskins will get his shot at fullback.  He played tight end in college, but is 6'2", 252.  He's a good reciever too, so I'm rooting for him (if not Smelley).

Per Sobo, had OT Chris Faulk remained healthy, he would have been a mid-round pick. He's 6'6", 331.  Might have stolen one here--Sobo is a pretty good source.

There are other UFA's like ILB Mike Niam who could surprise, and this is a pretty good UFA haul so far.  Lots of WR's and corners.

I believe they could still trade Sheard and/or Rubin.  They've really got too many OLB's and  NT/DE's now.

NFL Radio on Browns, Mingo

Pat Kirwan doesn't agree with many of our local barstool talent scouts and GMs and says the Mingo pick was just about a no-brainer sans a successful trade-down.

He likes several cornerbacks who will make it into the third round, and says "You can find your way to a cornerback in this draft.  You can't find your way to Mingo".

Kirwan differs with those who say that Mingo can't take on blockers, citing more than one occasion when Mingo crashed into a guard and then made a tackle.  He says Mingo is "wiry-strong" and will probably get up to around 245, but not bigger...but that's just fine for what they want him to do, and he can succeed at 235 right now.

Now, according to sources, Joe Banner came down with acute Pinnochioitis and had to have most of a pool-cue sized shcnozz sawed off so they could get him back to his hotel room last night.

Yeah he wanted Mingo more than Ansah and Jordan, so bad that he had a deal in place to trade up for him.  Yeah I believe that a whole bunch of people liked him better than the three left tackles or the aforementioned two de/olb's.

And he never considered trading down when the guy he wanted all along fell to him at six.

Well, he might have considered some if his phone rang one time, but it didn't, so technicly he didn't really lie much.  Sorta.

Anyhow, probably nobody traded and Jordan/Ansah weren't there but Mingo is quicker/faster than both so they nabbed him and made the rest up.

Junior GM Chicken Little

It's always frustrated me that dumb people are too dumb to know when they've been humiliated by smart people, and just keep blabbering.  I had to leave the forums--same old negative, irrational bullcrap.

As a junior, Barkevious Mingo was used on the strong side, and was frequently double-teamed.  He was used in coverage occasionally.  Had he been used on the weak side and actually rushed more often, he would have had more sacks.  He also rotated in and out a lot, missing a lot of time on the field.  I'm not sure I understand his Coach.

Mike Krupka, Pat Kirwin and others have talked about this, and it's well-known to everybody who does their homework (or at least pays attention to those who do.)  Mingo was schemed out of a lot of sacks as a junior.

I personally liked Ansah the best, because he had size and strength to go with his quickness and speed, but Ansah and Dion were gone.

I don't buy that Mingo won't get bigger.  I mean, is this because he's hardwired not to store FAT?  And nobody said he won't get stronger.  He sure as hell will get stronger in the NFL, and that's more important.

He's very much like Jordan athleticly, with the fluid hips and speed to cover (and by that I mean run with big wide recievers, let alone tight ends).  He hasn't done as much of that as Jordan, and needs more refinement and polish--but he has similar upside and was the best available.

The bloom is off the Milliner rose since others besides me realized that Horton will almost never run any other coverage than press/man.  In that coverage, Milliner is about the same as half a dozen other corners in this draft.  And balls tend to bounce off his hands.

But it's ignorant to call Milliner "slow", or to say that he's inferior in man coverage.  You're on my side but you blow my credibility and embarrass me.  Milliner is an excellent cornerback.

And I just knew that one of you would have to ask who would ever give up a second round pick for Jabaal Sheard.  You mean for a young, experienced strong side defensive end who can rush the passer and stop the run?  Yeah who would ever want something like that when those guys are a dime-a-dozen in the second round?

.......Ok that was sarcasm.  Lots of teams in need of a defensive end would gladly cough up a shot-in-the-dark second rounder for Sheard OR Rubin DUH.

That's if they peddle them.  But who knows?  Horton might say "screw the cornerback I want ALL these guys!"

GOOD PICK.

Trade UP? REALLY?

It's believable that Ray Horton wants Dion Jordan.  It's not believable that they'd trade up to get him instead of Ansah.  It doesn't make any sense whatsoever.  I think somebody just made it up.

If the Browns offered just a fifth round pick for Davone Bess, I guess that's not so bad.  Not neccessary, but not that bad.  Not as good as letting the players we have play, and not cutting one of them.

I'm kind of off the Smith bandwagon.  He hit around 40% on deep passes, and Phil Simms' mention of his showing no "big, risky, aggressive" downfield plays scared me.  While Simms said the same about EJ Manuel, his accuracy deep was pretty good.

In counting cornerbacks, I forgot Jonthan Banks and some others--there are actually more like seven or even eight who'd be an upgrade opposite Haden as the number TWO cornerback...which is not the number one...which is the complemetary corner matched against the offense's second-best reciever.  Two elite cornerbacks is better, of course, but not mandatory.

Gil Brandt's scenario of the Browns getting screwed out of their trade-down opportunity makes sense.  Not only is this par for the course, but also because teams needing a left tackle probably won't want to take any chances.  I can only hope that they'll stall until they see the second one drafted, and that the second one lasts longer than expected.

I've become a Dion Jordan fan myself.  And ex-wide reciever who covers well too?  And he's only had two years experience at the position himself!  Upside almost like Ansah's, but ready to go right now?  I'll take it.

I hope the rumors of San Fran wanting Milliner bad are true.  They're loaded with draft picks (and pricey talent), and could actually make a huge move to six.

And yeah, I'd take it.  I'd drop all the freaking way down there and grab a starting corner, safety, and guard (Long).  I said "and", not "or".  I shouldn't need to explain why...

Ok here's another reason why: There are FOUR OLB's in addition to Kruger on the current roster with a good chance to make an impact.  Use just a microscopic bit of imagination, ok?  Groves converted to OLB from DE last season.  (PS I couldn't care less if he went hooker-hunting).

The Browns don't need to "address wide reciever".  Why do you keep saying that?  What is it about Little, Gordon, Norwood, Benjamin, and Nelson that you think sucks?

I get that Benjamin is a little shrimp...so Austin isn't?

Why do you hate Jordan Cameron so much?  Why do you keep saying he can't block?  Is it because he was taken in the fourth round, and you can't imagine a fourth rounder ever being good?  

Yeah I won't say a negative thing about Jordan or Ansah if they get stuck at 6, because they're exceptional (and then Sheard could maybe get a second rounder--leaving good DEPTH at OLB dammit), but I still hope against hope for a trade down.

This draft is short on tens, but has lots and lots of eights and nines.  

The Browns might need a safety, could really use an athletic guard, depth at tight end, and yeah okay a superstar OLB.  QB is unsettled, but Weeden and Campbell could be great in this scheme...but the only certain NEED is cornerback.

If I were a Browns player, I'd tell other guys "Don't go to Cleveland unless you're a high draft pick.  It doesn't matter how good you are there.  You'll never get a chance."

PS Jim Miller was also a quarterback, who spent the week at the Senior Bowl, and still thinks Manuel is as good as anybody.  Jim Kelly thinks Geno Smith has all the tools, comparing him to Cam Newton.  (Really Manuel is more like Newton).

I predict that the Browns will draft somebody at six, or else trade down.  Take it to the bank.

Davone Bess?

This has GOT to be a Lombardi idea.  Davone Bess is a good player who makes great catches and falls down.

This would be a great way to get rid of one of those pesky draft picks, and to make sure Norwood and Wilson stay on the bench, and Benjamin's development is halted before he makes Heckert look even smarter.

And I'm sorry but I'm sick of this: The knucklehead who published the rumor said "the Browns obviously have a glaring need at wide reciever"...You, sir, are an idiot.

I need to calm down that's all.

Ok I'm back.  Sorry I called you an idiot.  You're just lazy and repeat old articles a lot without doing any home-work whatsoever.

Anyway I want to get this in now: Teams that blitze a lot need to run press/man coverage almost exclusively.  Milliner is the best overall cornerback in this draft, but if you throw out the zone stuff, Trufant, Hayden, and, umm...anyway there are three of them that are as good or better.

Line Hanford and Frank, the outside corners have to delay the reciever at the line, muscle them toward the sideline, and stick with them to make the QB hold the ball longer, or at least make more difficult and accurate throws.

I've also read some second-hand coach/scout opinions that this is a shallow draft for outside passrushers after Mingo (consensus third-best).  I think they are lying, or else the writer just made it up, but hope he's right because that would set up a trade-down of the tackles are gone...

And of course they should absolutely trade down with anybody who wants Milliner bad enough.

Bad News Browns

Most mock drafts are highly ignorable, but Gil Brandt mocks the exception.  Along with his didactic memory and well-known judgement, he has more connections to active GM's and scouts than probably anybody else.

This is why his accuracy in predicting drafts is almost legendary.

And here is what he predicts:

The Browns will (predictably) get screwed out of their trade-down, as the top three tackles will be gone in the top five.  Gil thinks that Ansah and Milliner will also be gone.

It feels personal, but Gil is a nice guy and doesn't hate the Browns.  It just appears to him that #3 and #4 will trade down.  They don't hate the Browns either...it just seems like a huge conspiracy.

Gil predicts that the Browns will draft Dion Jordan at 6.  This doesn't bother me--he's a perfect fit, and with Ansah gone, the best available--with zero red flags, and upside.

But...DAMMIT they just had to tease us with visions of another second-rounder and...well just here we go again.

This would leave us still in need of a cornerback, and with the remaining picks, they would miss out on the other elite ones.  Then, there might be a good guard like Long high in the third, but could they draft him and forego the best available cornerback?

Safety isn't as urgent.  There are candidates on the roster, plus a couple pretty good geezers still hanging around as free agents.

BUT there's Sheard and Rubin.  I love them both.  I'm hearing good things about Sheard's conversion to OLB and would be reluctant to peddle him given this new information...but if Jordan is the pick, I say go ahead.

I'm a big Rubin fan too, but he makes the most money, is the oldest, and is pretty short to play DE here--the tackles reach advantage will give him hell.  And if you think that either of these young veteran players wouldn't get a second rounder, you are in need of head-extraction surgery.

Some guys write about the "MY guy" thing, and assert that every new regime plans to replace each and every inherited player as a matter of course.  That's BS.  Players who match the new offensive and defensive systems can stick around if they're good enough and affordable enough.

Sheard has been a defensive end his whole life, and Rubin is a much better tackle/nose tackle than DE.

I'm surprised that Robertson is getting the first shot at ILB next to D'Qwell, but he made a point about the Pittsburgh inside backers.  They're listed at 240, which might more might not be accurate, but it's close enough.  Nor is Horton obliged to make an exact copy of LeBeau's system.

Robertson covers even better than D'Qwell, and I'm thinking he'd do a lot of that.  He's also a run-and-hit guy with good instincts.  He did blow a lot of tackles last season (failed to wrap up), but this is fixable--Horton won't tolerate it.

Well, with nickles and dimes being the default defenses in the NFL these days anyway, a real 3-4 look probably won't be practical on more than about 30% of the plays.  This is what Horton meant when he talked about multiple fronts.

I'm thinking that he wants his best coverage linebacker built into the base.  I'm also starting to suspect that the front 3 will seek penetration more than LeBeaus' defenses do.

If you recall, Rogers rote havoc as a 3-4 nose tackle.  The trouble was that he was freelancing, and opened up huge cutback lanes behind him.  The guards also just let him go by and overshoot the play, and went out to smash poor D'Qwell.

But penetration can work here as long as the other guys know about it in advance and know where the cutbacks are libel to be.  It's also important that the offense doesn't know where to expect it.  The offensive lineman sets up to engage a huge quick guy making a frontal assault, and when his guy shoots to his right or left instead, it's very hard to "un-plant" your feet and stay with him.

The threat of that makes it hard for them to target the linebackers--Taylor in your face can drive one guy back.  Taylor with leverage is in your backfield before you can react.  If a guard fires out at the linebacker, HE opens up a gap for the surprise-penetrator.

The reason I suspect this is that one of the inside linebackers might be coming right behind  the lineman, unblocked.  The center or guard tries to go with Taylor or whoever, and here comes Jackson or Robertson right through where he was standing a second ago.  This helps the Robertson thing make sense.  

INSIDE pressure is the best pressure.  

This might also be a reaction to the Read-option.  It's trading mass for speed/quickness.

But I'm just guessing.

Hope Gil is wrong--or that somebody who wants Smith bad is ready to deal.

Phil Simms on the Quarterbacks

General statements: Phil says that for a quarterback to be great, he has to show some big, aggressive throws on film.  He has to show that he has the guts and confidence to take a risk.  This sounds like Rich Gannon, who says about the exact same thing.  This is what Flacco, Kaepernick, Brady, etc. have in common.

Stipulation: Sometimes the system they play in inhibits this.

He also said that a quarterback needs to know when the game is over, and he can't save it anymore.  He has to take the dumpoffs and short throws.  He says that fans and media are (not a quote) ignorant, and always want to blame the quarterback for a loss, so it's a matter of survival for a guy in a hopeless game to pad his stats and hope for run-after-catch big plays.

That way, they see his high completion percentage and no interceptions and can't blame him for the loss.  He hates it when a game is out of hand and a quarterback starts making dumb throws.

I'll complete that: Prevent defenses take away all the deep stuff, and the chances of throwing an interception skyrocket.  It's actually just plain dumb to throw into what amounts to triple coverage.

Phil doesn't like "effort" throwers.  He looks hard at throwing motions, and says that some guys are natural throwers, with loose, smooth deliveries, and others are not.  Effort throwers get tired arms and injure themselves.

Effort thrower can be coached on their deliveries, but revert under pressure.  This is beyond me.  I can't see what he means, but assume he's right.

Phil also says that he ignores wins and losses, because a great quarterback is often stuck with a crappy team, and he wants you to know this: It's not always the QB's fault!

Phil on Geno Smith: Phil likes Smith.  He says that all his mechanical flaws are correctable.  He said that this is not a big thing: It's maybe twenty minutes of coaching and he's "fixed".  He's the only quarterback who did well from under center.

However, he says that in all his game films, he couldn't find any of those big, aggressive throws.

He wonders why Landry Jones is under the radar, because he's probably the most NFL-ready guy and has all the tools.  (Phil always mentions throwing off-balance as part of this.  He says that's big in the NFL because they're all over you all the time).

Pat Kirwin, who covered the Senior Bowl, responded to this by saying that he was great without pressure, but when pressured, he couldn't do anything--in Senior Bowl practices.

Phil replied that he wished he'd seen him in person, and was going by his game-tapes.  He said that in the games he saw, he handled pressure well.

Another guy mentioned that he did badly against better competition.  Phil stifled a hot retort, but had to say that he had a crappy offensive line, and no quarterback can save a badly overmatched team.  And he couldn't help but saying "I couldn't care less."  I'm not an ex-quarterback, but would have said the same thing, because it's common sense.

He likes Mike Glennon, but says that he should be a backup as a rookie.  But he likes him a lot.  He compares Glennon to Matt Ryan, who came from the same coach.  

He says my man EJ Manuel is not a natural thrower, and he didn't make any of the high-risk throws that Glennon and Jones made.

He's not very impressed by Barkley.

All the guys mentioned could run Turner's offense, and some could be there in the second or even third round.

That's all.

EJ Manuel and Other Browns Draft Stuff

Some commentors are right about John Gruden.  He never met a quarterback he didn't love.  But then, he looks for the best in them, and sees what they could become.  Just read or listen to the part at the end twice, where he talks about what the guy needs to do to get better.  That's where he tells you what's wrong with him.  Sorta.

Mike Mayock is far more blunt and brutal.  You only have to read his whole analysis once.

Anyway I liked what EJ Manuel said.  When you listen to Geno Smith, you get a scripted press release.  EJ just talks normally.  I especially like what he said about being like Big Ben.  He's far more athletic and better-looking and smarter than Ben (not saying Ben's dumb or anything), but:

He's a pass-first guy.  No doubt his agent is in his ear about Chud: "This guy was the first with the read-option so say this, this and this", but EJ ignored him, and was honest.  He doesn't run to run, but to buy himself time to complete a pass.  And in reality, that's what every coach wants to hear.

EJ expects to compete to start in his first season.  I'd say that too, but it aint neccessarily so.

I still doubt that he'd be taken ahead of Smith, or that the Browns would take him at six.  But he could end up as the second or third quarterback taken.

I'll defer to the vast majority of real experts (and their echos) about the relative inferiority of this quarterback class.  But once again, these are quarterbacks, so the reality is that if you think you can turn a guy into a franchise quarterback this or next season, you will have to overdraft him.

This is why if the Browns were able to trade down to 11 or 12 and not lower, they MIGHT draft Manuel (if not Smith) there.

Smoke screen?  Bait?  Possibly.  In the case of Smith, that's about shopping the sixth pick and extorting more for it.  In the case of Manuel, it could even be thinking down the road a little and making 11 or 12 more desirable and expensive.

I'm not Mike Mayock, Gil Brandt, Chud, or Turner, so I don't know if the Browns should or shouldn't draft this or that quarterback (and admit it).  For the fifth or sixth time,  I love EJ for his consistantly clutch performances in every big game or tough test (Senior Bowl).

That's obvious enough for even an amateur to recognize, isn't it?  You'd say the same thing about a golfer or pool player.  You don't have to know anything about mechanics or third reads.  Manuel comes through.  He's also unusually smart and has rapidly corrected many of the flaws the older scouting reports talk about.

I now think that they'll have a very good chance of trading down, which makes it unlikely that Milliner will be the pick.  Everybody talks about the tackles, but somebody without a Joe Haden might trade up for Milliner, and somebody else might want Geno Smith (more than the Browns) too.

Joekel might well be the first overall pick, leaving only two ready-for-primetime left tackles on the board with four picks to go ahead of the Browns.  That's why the LT-involved trade-down gets so iffy.

People forget that it's not just the teams in the draft order, but all the teams that might trade ahead of you that endanger your pick.  This is why, rightly or wrongly, Tom Heckert traded up one slot to draft TRich.  He believed that somebody else was trying to get ahead of him to steal his player.

So it's possible that people could jump up to nab both the other tackles before the Browns pick is in play.  But we'll see.  

Now, if you voted for Obama again, served on the OJ jury, believe that there is scientific evidence of man-caused global warming, or think the Browns need more wide recievers, you'll understand this:

If Jimmy Haslam is convicted of fraud/theft, he'll be compelled to sell the Browns.  Who knows who the new owner would be?

Therefore, he must be innocent.  This must be a plot to screw the Browns again.  Ergo, all the evidence which will be presented must be trumped up, and all the witnesses must be lying.  The more of this we see, the more determined we must become to ignore it.

It is our duty to prevent this injustice, and to believe that Haslam is innocent no matter what.

I'm conflicted, because I'm an owner-operator, and as such this whole thing infuriates me.  However, because I am a Browns fan, I know that the owner of my team must have had nothing to do with it.  Despite the fact that the rebates withheld accrued to his company's bottom line.  Yeah, that's the ticket.

Stop the Inanity!

1: A national writer listed defensive end high among the Browns draft needs.  Need I bother?

2: The team doesn't need a "speed guy" to play opposite Josh Gordon, who is a serious deep threat.  We already have a 175 lb. reciever with world class speed in Benjamin--how can you logicly suggest using a high first round pick on another one in Austin?

Yeah yeah he's great (at least til he gets busted up), but the Browns just grabbed a great possession guy in Wilson, Benjamin showed great promise as a rookie, Rodney Norwoodfield is almost as fast, Gordon is a real deep threat, and--oh I guess Little is the guy you bench, right?  

This offense will throw a lot of intermediate and deep passes, and taller, more physical recievers are always more desirable.  Even the most accurate quarterbacks can't consistantly put the ball on the money with thirty-to-fifty yard timing throws, and the tall guys can muscle, stretch, and leap as they adjust.  The Norwood/Benjamin-sized shrimps would run shorter routes underneath and try to make yards after the catch.  

And we already have two of those.

For those who say that Benjamin isn't like Austin, that's called a huge assumption.  Benji has the same suddenness and quickness, ie the same potential.  He was less experienced and refined than Austin in his own draft class, which is exactly why Heckert was able to steal him lower.  He's got a year under his belt now.  PUT THE SHOVEL DOWN AND STEP AWAY.

3: The Browns never said that grabbing a waived linebacker from the Eagles was a blockbuster move.  Special teams are important.  That's all this move was.  Why all the temper-tantrums and whining?  Are you going to bash every single non-blockbuster move they make?

Once again, in Cleveland the bar is set somewhere near the summit of Mount Everest: Now EVERY SINGLE acquisition must feature a pro bowl player of some sort.  Seems like you think that every little thing they do is intended to appease you.  Like they're fishing for your votes, or something.  It's embarrassing.

4: Chud and Norv do like tight ends, but they also like fullbacks.  While another Cameron-type tight end would be nice, and if they got one they'd use more two tight-end passing formations, tight end is NOT a priority in this draft.

Just because a Coach likes to use tight ends in the passing game doesn't mean you need a whole bunch of them.  And by the way, Barnidge is a pretty good reciever!

5: Mary Kay is right.  If Norv and Chud feel that Geno Smith can be the man, they have to take him if they can.  And no, you don't know more about quarterbacks than they do--somebody needs to stick a pin in that head.

6: The defensive line in a 3-4 reads and reacts while one or two other players blitze to apply pressure.  They're big guys who can engage big guys first, and passrushers second. The Browns don't need passrushing defensive linemen.

7: Winn is NOT A NOSE TACKLE.

8: This isn't a correction, but just something I noticed.  I haven't heard Zac Dystert's name mentioned anywhere among the quarterbacks.  The GM's are mum, and could think differently.  But if the sportswriters were a guide, he could be there in the third.

9: Some quarterbacks, if they're not drafted by a team with an inflexible blockhead like Square-Peg Shurmer, can step in as rookies and win in a system tweaked for their benefit.  Others are not ready, and need to sit and learn first.

Geno Smith would compete to start.  Dysert would not.  There's no one-size-fits-all rule.

10: It is not breaking Chud's heart that Weeden can't run the read-option.  Chud used that to help Cam Newton make a difficult transition to the pros.  It's not his religeon, ok?

Zac Dysert?

I read this scouting report on OBR by Mike Krupka: OBR Prospect Profile: Zac Dysert and was surprised.  Krupka rates Dysert's upside above almost everybody else's, including EJ Manuel's.  I find that hard to believe, but this guy has done a whole lot more homework than I have, and really seems to know his stuff.

I'm embarrassed, because I got caught up in all the hype about some of the other guys, and have completely ignored Dysert.  But thanks to Krupka, I now think he could be on the Browns' radar--and he should go after Manuel, Barkley, and maybe even a couple other guys.

My negligent ignorance and Zac's apparantly lowly draft status is partly because he was mediocre overall in the Senior Bowl (threw late on timing patterns and into coverage and stuff).  (I went all ga-ga over Manuel, who just murdered everybody.)

It's also partly because some of the scouting reports on him were (I now feel, thanks to Mike) overly negative.

Finally, it's because he played in the MAC (Miami of Ohio) against lesser competition.  Like Big Ben.

He does have several faults.  He threw most of his passes to his first and second reads, and Krupka feels he generally read half the field.  He sometimes leaves the pocket before he needs to.  His shorter passes sometimes "sail" (although dumpoffs to running backs are fine).  He locks onto recievers and doesn't use his eyes or pump-fakes to sucker safeties and zone corners.

This is about everything that's wrong with him.

So what are Chud and Norv thinking?

Well, it mostly depends on the kid's brain.  The sad fact is that some quarterbacks are never able to read the entire field.  They won't consider Dysert unless they believe that he can be coached to do this.  But as for the eyes, pump-fakes, sailing, and timing--all of these are correctable for sure, provided Dysert has the discipline and work ethic to practice.

By the way, I'm not saying that some quarterbacks are too dumb to make 3-4 reads while scanning the whole field.  That's not what it's about.  The guy could be a Rhodes scholar and still lack this ability.  I don't know why.  Probably, Dysert was just running his offense the way he was supposed to, and can do all the reads and check-downs with practice and repetition.

Anyway, I got most excited when Krupka said that he could throw with power and accuracy on the run.  That's really rare.  He doesn't have to reset his feet, like Weeden should and Brady and most of the rest do.  It takes superior balance, coordination, and arm-strength to throw on the run.

Krupka itemized pinpoint accurate passes that traveled 60 yards in the air, and cited great touch and accuracy at every level.

He's not as fast as Smith or Manuel, but scouts knocking his footspeed are full of crap.  He excells on rollouts and can run for yardage.

He's a very solid, muscular 231 lbs., and, like Big Ben, makes throws with defensive linemen dripping off him.  (Don't get confused, though--he's built much better and is much better-looking than Ben, and so far hasn't been accused of rape).

Dysert's skill-set definitely fits Turner's offense.  While it is based on timing, and he'd have to consistantly throw more quickly (PS Krupka said that in the Senior Bowl this could have been due to the fact that he wasn't used to the recievers...most draft-guide scouts are too lazy to consider these factors).  His dumpoffs are fine, the "sailing" tendancy is correctable, and anyway in this offense both of the short recievers are 6'5" now.  And in this scheme the "short" recievers are at least eight yards deep.

While the Browns have a really good pass-protecting o-line with backs who can block, the weakness of Turner's offense is that the deeper passes take more time.  His escapability and strength would be a nice benefit.  Oh--and he's fearless and tough.

Further, Krupka said that in reality, Dysert is comfortable under center as well as in the shotgun.  He also said that he's adept at taking a shotgun snap, pivoting, and immediately getting rid of it.  He was describing a pistol.

Now, Chud introduced the read-option in order to help Cam Newton function as a rookie, and it doesn't mean that's "his" system at all.  But with Dysert he could sprinkle it in here and there.  That's just a bonus.

I'm being pragmatic here: As I described earlier, while the local chicken littles think the sky is still falling, this team is already loaded and could go .500 or better this season, and draft in the bottom half of each round from here on out.  

Weeden could very well emerge as a very good quarterback in this system, and for all we know Campbell could be another Gannon.  But they're 30 and 32 respectively, and if the braintrust sees a potential eventual franchise quarterback in this draft, they have to take him.

I still love Manuel, but the reality is that he could be gone before pick 20.  The Browns might not get a shot at him, no matter how much they can wheel and deal.  But they could nab Dysert.

One thing most scouts are right about is that Dysert needs to be developed.  There would be no controversy about adding him to the roster, since it's understood that he's here strictly to learn as a rookie, and perhaps through a second season.

I think Krupka rates his potential above Manuel and company's because of his arm, accuracy, and ability to extend plays (not going down easily).  He also notes that he doesn't get flustered, and will take shots to deliver the ball-which is another thing that can't be taught.

I was sort of encouraged when, on NFL Radio, Kirwin and Ryan mock drafted two trade-downs for the Browns, giving them two more high third round picks, and drafting Trufant in the first.  Good deal!

Then Kirwin has them trading all three third rounders to get back into the first round to draft Jarvis Jones.  Yuk.  Bad 40 or no, Jones looks good, but not that good.  Nor is there a big need there, in the real world.

Well, Pat/Tim can't be expected to know anything about the two other OLB candidates to go with Sheard and Kruger.  Nobody can research every NFL team in that detail, and these guys unfortunately rely on local beat-writers a lot.  Ours are oblivious to half this roster.  So they still think that OLB is a big need.

But the encouraging part was the two trade-downs.  They had Miami trading all the way up to number three to draft an offensive tackle, though, and I gotta tell you, that would be pretty stupid when here are three of these, and one is probably still there at six.

If the Browns got to 11 or 12, somebody could be wanting to trade up for Warmack, Manuel, or whoever.  I mean, remember we already got Haden?  Does it now have to be Rhodes instead of Trufant?  C'mon!  "Settle for" a slightly less studly cornerback and get more picks!  There are four or even five corners in this draft who could be in the Pro Bowl in year 2!  USE it!

And if you trade up, trade up for the future franchise quarterback, or the great safety--not a fifth OLB!  (Note: No problem drafting another one.  Just don't blow three picks to do it jeez.)

For that matter, I'd trade Sheard or Rubin for a second rounder in a heartbeat.  Nothing personal/really like him but it's binniss ya know?

In conclusion, trade down and maybe nab Dysert.

Browns Sign David Nelson: The New Jurevicious

Finally the Browns have a vedderunn wide reciever who can menndorr the Browns young wide recievers.  He can teach them how to run patterns and catch the ball and stuff.  They have sorely lacked a vedderrunn menndorr, which is why nobody can get open or catch the ball and stuff.

NOT!

But I really love this signing.  Banner got a great deal, considering what the guy can contribute to this team in this offense.  He has had three seasons to learn the rocket-science-like complexity of playing wide reciever in the NFL.  While it usually takes eight or nine years to get really competant--

Sorry I'm stuck on sarcastic til I get my morning coffee.

Anyway, I know that a lot of fans still think that Norwood, Benjamin, and Gordon aren't fast enough so we need a fast guy, but you're obviously wrong.  Many of you also reckon that Gregg Little can only play in the slot, which is downright laughable.

It's also not exactly right to assume that Nelson is here to play exclusively in the slot.  He and Little will probably play both Z and Y, depending on matchups and situations.

Nelson is a lot like Jurevicious.  His size and height overmatch both outside and slot corners.  He doesn't get great separation, but doesn't need to.  He's "open" all the time, including when a munchkin cornerback is all over him.  

This is why throughout 2011 Fitzpatrick never hesitated to throw to him.  At that time, Fitzpatrick was regarded as an emerging star, and Bills fans had high hopes for 2012.

But when Nelson blew his achilles, there went Fitzpatrick, right back to Oblivia.  This was no coincidence.  Nelson is the bail-out guy.

Two tight end offenses are the flavor of the month.  Now, even if the Browns can't land another tight end in the draft, the Browns can field this offense.  Nelson can do everything a wing-tight end can do (and I repeat: Cameron CAN block now.)

One of these guys will always be the second or third option, or the first in the red zone.  If Weeden wins out and still eats the ball, I'll bring the rope.

But Chud/Turner aren't followers.  They adapt their offense to their people and create new schemes.  Other coaches copy them.  So don't assume they'll jump off the two tight end bridge because all the other kids are doing it!

Turner still wants a two-back base with a blocking fullback if he can swing it.

But in re that, remember Mack/Byner?  I don't think Byner ever weighed over about 208, but he blocked like hell.  I'm not predicting this, but with the top three backs this team has now, the coaches will contemplate some similar combinations.

Anyway, now that the Jurevicious 2 is on board, this team is stacked at wide reciever and can do alright without another tight end.

This just in: The Browns traded one of their many surplus ILB's for scatback Dion Lewis.  This supports my two-back base statement.  There are now four established tailbacks on the roster, plus the fullback candidates.  On game days, four or five of these guys might be active.

Lewis can return and is here for depth.  But he's the fastest and most elusive of this group and can catch passes.  Most likely he can line up in the slot, in fact.  

ChudNorv now have a nice tailback stable, and it's becoming evident that while Trich is da man, they don't plan to wear him out and shorten his career like Shurmer would.

In re fullback, the new system changes things for Smelley and company here, too.  In Shurmer's system, they were extra pass protection and outlet recievers much more than they run-blocked.  Here, those priorities are different.  They'll work first and foremost at lead blocking in this camp.

I repeat: That guy could already be on this roster.

This guy at the Bleacher Report put together a really good analysis of Weeden's issues, complete with photos.  For once I think they let somebody who knew something in there, and I learned stuff.

But it does sound like my paranoia theory, since (assuming this guy wasn't assuming), Weeden checked down from his primary recievers too early...meaning that everybody looked covered to him.

That brings up another thing about the West Coast.  Everybody DOES look covered until they break off their routes.  The whole purpose is to get the defender running one way and then change directions suddenly to create separation.  Weeden had an issue throwing to empty space where the reciever was supposed to be.  He just couldn't trust the reciever or the system.

Ok but this writer called an X reciever a slot reciever, didn't address the shift-and re-plant footwork issue, and identified the mechanical issue as coming off his back foot as he threw.  That's pretty much standard for an ex-pitcher, and if Weeden missed, that wasn't why.  That's just a follow-through.

But overall it was just excellent and I'm sure this guy would go toe-to-toe with me in a debate.

I continue to hope for a trade down to 11 or 12 with a second-rounder involved, and then maybe another trade-down after that and maybe a third too.  I would still like a young QB and still like Manuel more than Smith due to his pressure response and intelligence.

I also love Howie Long's kid and the other athletic guard, and the second, third, and fourth cornerbacks...

By the way, Milliner/Haden would be the best tandem in the league, but they're building a whole team here.  Haden is number one, check.  The guy they want can be just almost as good, okay?  By trading down multiple times (if possible--which I doubt) they could take care of safety and guard as well.  Three starters instead of one.  Do the math.

Anyway back to the beginning:  Signing David Nelson was a BIG, important move, mitigating the percieved need for another pass-catching tight end, and providing a reliable, trustworthy security blanket for any quarterback.  

This offense is aggressive and goes for the throat, but as usual we've ignored everything else.  First downs still matter, and ten yards beats an incompletion or a sack.

Are the Browns Better?

I like a lot of these analysts, but sometimes they ignore stuff.  The most significant single factor in improvement from one year to the next is what the previous season's experience, and another year with NFL trainers have done for second, third, and even fourth-year players.

If you use a static model which ignores this most common and strong upward trend, your evaluation is utterly worthless.

Of course they've improved, in almost every area!  Little stopped the drops and enters his third season.  Gordon and Benjamin now have a season under their belts.  Norwood is a third-year player--this is just the wide recievers.  It takes very little imagination to see that each will be better.  C'mon, man!

In response to an article about what TRich's mother said about the horrendous pain he was in last season (which I told you about because I have had those injuries), this one clown kept bringing up his stats.

You know these guys.  People are talking, and he's insecure, so he has to try to sound smart or something.  So he says something that he once heard some smart person say, and looks around at everybody, hoping they've all fallen silent and are staring at him because they're so impressed by his genius.

I copied and will paste below the best response to this I found:

"I simply can't believe some people.

I would just love to crack the ribs on a few of you guys, then subject you to the same pounding TR got for 15 weeks.

Then ask you how you felt about his "poor production".

I mean really, you have some nerve.

Many of you questioned how badly he was really hurt. Several people claim he could never take the field if the extent of his injuries and the pain he played through were true. Saying a normal person would have difficulty walking and breathing let alone running and taking hits.

Well every indication is that the injury was real, the pain was real, and he just manned up like few players, and few people, ever have. He slept sitting up because it hurt too much to lie down.

Yeah, but he sucks because he chose to do his best to play and contribute what he could.It's hard to fathom what must run through the brains of the people who turn their noses up at what he did last season."

What he said!

Late note: Players want to play.  Coaches are supposed to know better.  Shurmer was a major butthead not to bench him.

Browns' Most Possible Trade-Down

I got this from Tim Ryan and Pat Kirwin on NFL Radio.  (Tim was a defensive lineman for the Superbowl Bears and Pat the GM of the Jets-when they were good).

The Miami Dolphins, who sit at twelve, are loaded with draft picks, including two second rounders (10/42 and 22/54).  High among their needs is a left tackle.  LEFT tackle.  There are three top left tackles in this draft.  Lane Johnson has similar upside to Joekel and Fisher, but needs more work on technique.  Fluker is a right tackle with left tackle potential over time.

They also need a cornerback, but I doubt that Ireland would trade up for him.

Because of their recent free agent moves at the Browns' expense, the 'Fins believe they can contend this season.  

I gotta say, if I were Ireland, I wouldn't do this unless I felt that Lane Johnson would be gone by 12.  But this is me projecting my own opinion, and you just can't do that.  For that matter, there is a good possibility that he, too, will be gone-so if you make a move, you might as well grab the NFL-ready insta-starter instead of the guy who probably needs a year at right tackle.  (Again I'd take that, but I'm wierd).

According to the value chart, #12 and #42 overall is about 80 points extra for #6, but this doesn't mean Ireland wouldn't do it.  The chart is a general guide, not the Bible.  Probably, Ireland would ask for, and maybe get, a fifth rounder as part of the deal.

Tony Grossi would never make this trade, because at twelve, everybody sucks.  Going strictly by Walter Football's mock, at twelve the Browns would have to settle for bums like CB Xavier Rhodes, Barkevious Mingo, Safety Kenny Vaccaro, Jarvis Jones--or (here I project again) EJ Manuel.  How can you build a team with losers like that?

Sigh...that was sarcasm.

By the way, Walter is pretty unusual in that he has Ziggy Ansah as the first passrusher off the board.  This makes sense to me, because he has by far the most upside...but most others have him available at twelve.

Bill Polian said that this is a very deep safety draft too, so a safety will be there in the second.  Or a guard, or a cornerback.  All of them ready to step in and start.

Once again, many are still listing OLB passrusher as one of the top needs.  They're wrong.  What we have on the roster other than Kruger is kind of muddy right now, but from among the MANY contenders for playing time, this position will be average at worst, as is.

Outside the box, where Horton and LeBeau live, blitzes come from every position.  Even if the current crop of OLB's isn't as terrifying as I believe it will be, it doesn't represent the whole damn pass rush, as many seem to think it does.

I'd trade down--more than once if possible.

And the REAL needs are now free safety (possibly only depth if Gipson re-emerges), outside cornerback, fullback (probably), and future franchise quarterback.

Desirable: ATHLETIC Guard, OLB, another tight end, and...best available whatever.

Pessimism is not realism.  Realism is not optimism.  This is already a very good, talented team.  Accept it.

Trading Realities

Some mentally-challenged individuals still bash the previous regime for not landing RG3.  These are probably the same people who vote against increased property taxes, then march with the teachers every time they strike.

The Browns at least matched Washington's offer, basicly offering to gut two drafts to land this guy.  The compensation for that draft pick was stratospheric to the point where many NFL insiders called it stupid.

Washington won, very possibly because of the friendship between the two parties.  Were the Browns supposed to "throw in" a fourth first round pick--two more second rounders?  A blow job--what do you expect?  GROW UP.

It's true that the Browns failed to land Brent Grimes.  It's not true that they decided not to.  Florida didn't decide to be warm and full of bikinis, but did decide not to have state taxes.  Grimes might not have even decided to accept the higher offer, either.  

Some fans are like little kids who throw tantrums every time things aren't perfect.  Money grows on trees.  Other people don't matter.  GIMME I WANT!

Welcome to reality.