Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Draft Need Corrections

OK look, MoMass averaged almost 20 yards per catch as a rookie with DA and Quinn. He did it without much help from the other recievers or the backs, and defenses were zeroed in on him. Because last season he didn't do much, a lot of you are, as usual, shoveling dirt on his closed coffin. The fact is that Ben Watson and Peyton Hillis had become the favorite targets of a rookie quarterback. The passing game attacked the middle of the field more, partly to help McCoy take baby steps in learning his trade. MoMass has one of the highest upsides of any reciever in the NFL in a West Coast system which does NOT stress straight-line speed, but rather precise routes, separation, blocking, and run-after-catch. Plus, he does have pretty good wheels as it is. I don't know if I've seen him lose any footraces. I could be wrong, but I don't remember it, unless a defender had a really good angle, or he was forced to apply the brakes. Robiskie doesn't have MoMass's explosiveness, but seeks to make up for it with size. Some think he's slow, but that's no accurate. He runs a decent 40, and his real speed is in his top end. He's a long strider. We saw a few flashes of that last season, when he got loose with the ball, and couldn't be caught. I didn't say he's a big-play guy. He only has one gear, and isn't explosive out of his breaks like Robiskie is. He may never get much separation from defenders, and will need to use his bigger body and longer reach to snag balls, then break tackles to get much after the catch. But he should, in his third season, be a viable alternate target who can break a long one occasionally. Carlton Mitchell was for some reason declared dead-on-arrival by many as he failed to do anything as a raw rookie who'd come out early. Physicly, however, he's a match for the most talented recievers in the NFL. Will he emerge this season? Well, it's no sure thing, but it IS more likely than not. He's had a full off season and season to practice and hone his skills under NFL coaches. While Daboll's system wasn't a West Coast, Mangini and co. had very high standards in re precise routes--and this is the main thing that kept him on the practice squad. You can say that the Browns need more home-run hitters, but this assumes a lot. It assumes that Josh Cribbs won't be used more logicly in the offense, that Mitchell won't emerge at all, and that MoMass in his third season and it the West Coast won't explode. If you say that the Browns need wide recievers, period, and have them mock-drafting big possession guys, you're full of it. Evan Moore might be called a tight end, but can do everything Jurevicious did. He's even a bigger problem for defenses, since his presence on the field must be answered by the defense; ie the defense can't deploy the same nickel as the would vs. a conventional 3 or 4-wide. In fact, with Watson also in the mix, the Browns could split him out as well, creating all sorts of holes, and making a blitze scarier for the defense than for McCoy. While it's true that a blistering burner who blows doors off cornerbacks going vertical would be a real asset to any offense, the jury is still out on Mitchell, and this need is not at all critical. Holmgrens' statements about these recievers having good speed, and his being pleased with them, are dismissed as a smokescreen by those who think they know better, but it's not. He was simply telling the truth. Fan statements that we won't know how good McCoy can be until he has some recievers are simply ignorant. He will have a bunch of recievers--just maybe not that deep threat that about 23 other NFL teams get along without. It would be cool with me if the Browns could nab a Bowers or a Dareus, or possibly that super-cornerback, but trading out of that spot to get more picks would be better than taking Green--as good as he looks. And that trade-down looks like it has a good shot this time. In my mock draft, the Browns trade down--and I mean maybe by a lot. They need a young right tackle, at least for the future, a bunch of defensive linemen, linebacker, and even secondary help. They can't fill all the holes in one draft, but a trade-down could net (for example) two defensive linemen with firts-ground grades AND a right tackle who projects to start in 2012 instead of just one guy. Why isn't that obvious?

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Welcome to Amerika

You buy a house. You have to do some repairs, and you make some improvements. You've got a mortgage-you took a risk. But it's YOURS. In America, you are allowed to own things.

Now, you manage to find a good tenant, and rent the place out. After you sign the one-year lease agreement, you realize that you were stupid. Similar houses and apartments in the area are getting like 40% more per month!

But a contract is a contract, and you live with it, until the lease expires.

Meanwhile, things get tighter in a bad economy. You're not really losing money, but really wish you hadn't signed that idotic lease contract.

You warn your tenant that you'll need to raise the rent with the new contract, and you set some money aside, in case you lose him and have to lose a couple months' rent. He says he's sure you and he can "work something out". Hmm.

Now you present him with your new proposal. He asks you why you're raising the rent. You want to be diplomatic, so you point out that the first deal was 40% below market, and that money is tight.

He wants to see your "books", so he can "work with" you.

You want to punch him in the mouth. Apparantly he thinks he's your partner or something. But he was a real good tenant, and after some arguing, you decide to indulge him. You show him what you paid the plumber and electrician, property taxes, insurance--everything about the property, plusses and minuses.

He looks at this and says "where's the rest?"

"The rest what?"

"The 401k, 1099's from your investments, books on your other properties, tax returns--"

"Whoa! Why do you need to see that?"

"Well--how can I decide what I should pay you if I don't know how much you need?"

THIS IS AMERICA, NOT AMERIKA. IT'S NONE OF THE PLAYERS DAMN BUSINESS WHAT THE OWNERS MAKE. THE BAD DEAL THEY MADE IS EXPIRED AND THE OWNERS ARE DONE GETTING HOSED. IF THEY MAKE HUGE, MASSIVE PROFITS IT'S NONE OF YOUR DAMN BUSINESS--THEY OWN THE TEAMS.

THE TEAMS BELONG TO THEM. YOU ARE EMPLOYEES. THEY OWE YOU SALARIES, MEDICAL CARE, AND WHAT YOUR INDIVIDUAL CONTRACTS SAY THEY OWE YOU, AND NOTHING MORE UNTIL YOU BACK OFF AND MAKE A NEW CONTRACT.

And you're not "labor". You don't drive a truck or work in a factory. You live a dream. You PLAY a kid's game for a living. "Labor"...wash your mouths out with soap! Injuries, yeah. Tell that to a guy with one leg coming back from Afghanistan! The difference is YOU play a GAME and make a whole helluva lot more money.

Don't talk about the secretaries, businesses, coaches, scouts, and other employees. The OWNERS hired and employed them while YOU just played a game.

The real reason the players have forced this impasse is because they don't want to give BACK what the owners were stupid and weak enough to offer as a bribe in the previous contract.

And be honest: That was extortion.

The players now think of themselves as partners, morally entitled to 59% of the revenues in addition to their massive salaries and other compensation. They're not entitled to ONE percent!

Understand this: That was the 40% reduced rent in this story. The contract screwed the landlord for 12 months, but now it's over. The landlord will never get back all that money, but now just wants to make somewhere within a couple miles of what he should have been making all along.

The middle keeps moving farther and farther left, and the same people who were saying "both sides" are to blame 15 years ago are saying it today.

Pretty soon you'll all be standing next to Micheal Moore blaming both sides. Welcome to Amerika.

Saturday, March 5, 2011

Great Minds

Wow! Heckert and Shurmer sound just like me! They might actually be almost as smart as my humble self!!

Re-signing Jackson (to the surprise of many) was, to me, a no-brainer if he was healthy. Some local "experts" had said he was NOT a fit for the 4-3, but I told my crickets weeks ago that he was BETTER suited to that defense!

I had forgotten his ability to play outside. He has range, excels in space, and can cover big guys. Many weak 3-4 ILB's also have the skills to play on the weak side of a 4-3. You'd ideally like more speed there, but Jackson would be pretty solid.

Re-signing Wright was also a no-brainer to those of us who actually have a brain. The guy is in his prime, and in 2009 a lot of people were lobbying for him to go to the Pro Bowl. He DID have a sub-par (sub-PAR) 2010, but his weak performance was massively exhaggerated.

As I said before, because of his speed, he's often in the camera frame when a guy other than the one he's covering makes a catch. Ignoramusses automaticly blame him for every reception he's close to.

The Ravens ate his lunch, and he did have two other pretty bad games, but overall for the season, his sub-par play was pretty good. It was sub-par for him, the pro-bowl contender. It would have been indiotic for Heckert and co. to let Wright go simply because the lynch-mob was out with the ropes and torches again.

Wright is still young and improving. He may be the third corner this season. Haden and Brown (if he remains at corner), probably are better overall.

Heckert said "you need three", but really you need more due to injuries--and then to have the option in matching up to 4-wide sets.

But now we have three. Grossi is fulla beans calling cornerback an "urgent" need. Adams matches up well with big guys, even in man coverage.

Grossi also throws out that word in relation to wide reciever. Yes, they need more speed there to keep safeties back and give everybody else some space to operate in the short and intermediate bread-and-butter West Coast zones, but urgent?

Name the burner on the 49ers perennial Superbowl teams. Rice? 4.6 40 Rice? Rice who caught over 90% of his snares within 15 yards of scrimmage? Taylor? Who was their urgently-needed speedster?

And what about Carlton Mitchell? Consensus was that he came out of college prematurely and was raw. Had he remained in college for another season, most real experts said he had the ability to do great things and be a top pick. Now he's had a season to learn and practice with pro peers, coaches, and against elite pro corners and safeties...so why does everybody assume he's a bust based on no playing time as a rookie?

Are you kidding me? This is why I coined the phrase "Memorex Morons". They only know what they've seen. They're incapable of factoring in maturity, growth, improvement, etc. even when it's very likely.

You never know, of course. A player has to truly love the game, and be truly dedicated to improving, and determined as hell. David Veikune had the physical tools, but not that part of it. So sure, a lot of guys simply never make the grade. But more often than not young players improve with practice and experience.

Can't count on it, but Mitchell could be who they need.

Why do some of you keep embarrassing me on NFL Radio? One guy calls in and asks if the Browns can get a big, physical reciever in the second round. Yeah, with just Robiskie, MoMass, Moore etc. they really need to muscle up their recievers! Brilliant! Better to be quiet and let people assume you're a dumbass than to open your mouth and confirm it.

Kevin Kolonich said that the West Coast uses "smaller, quicker recievers". Give me a break! Small quick guys can do well in a west coast, granted--but the preferred types are BIG recievers who can use their bodies to wall-off zone coverage, break tackles, and have a reach advantage.

Precise patterns are also important, which hinders taller guys with longer limbs and a higher center of gravity (and may be Mitchell's biggest challenge), but still, personnel guys and coaches want BIG recievers for the West Coast.

Look: there's a premium on accuracy for a West Coast Quarterback, but bigger recievers help that a lot. The quarterback can miss a point by several feet with a big guy, and he can still reach the ball. A smaller guy can usually get more separation, but the quarterback's margin of error is still much smaller-plus zone guys can jar it loose, reach around to deflect, and physicly knock them off their routes.

Finally, west coast wide recievers BLOCK--or are kicked off the team. The huge overlooked part of why the west coast works is the fact that whoever is covering the other guys when the reciever makes his catch gets blocked immediately, and has a hard time closing on him. Big guys block.

Peterson, the cornerback, appears to be the best talent on the board.

I won't criticize who the Browns pick, no matter who it is. There will be so much talent there that they can't miss. If it's Green ok. If it's Peterson ok. If it's a defensive lineman double-ok.

Peterson doesn't address a need, unless you're dumb enough to think that Wright is washed up at 25. (My Bro E-man thought he was worse than he was last season too, but I know for sure that he's not among those who think he sucks. He saw him in '09, after all.)

But damn! What a secondary that would make! One of the best in the NFL! Man, check! Zone, check! They'd begin Brown's shift to free safety (I presume Jauron uses strong and free safeties). Half way through the season Peterson and Haden would be the tandem, Wright is strictly a corner, and they'd almost have to do it simply to get Brown in the field.

To be sure, that would leave the defensive line unaddressed until later, but this would take the secondary off the table for at least two seasons, during which those in the unit would learn to read eachother's minds.

Heckert isn't building for 2011, but for the foreseeable future, and I couldn't knock taking Peterson. Best available is best available. Check.

But I have no doubt that Heckert's Plan A is to trade down. The current LABOR talks are looking better lately, and one part of that will be a rookie pay structure which would eliminate hold-outs and reduce rookie salaries. This makes a trade-up much safer (and more likely).

No one would trade up to 6 in this draft for a defensive lineman, offensive lineman, running back, or linebacker, but they might for a quarterback (as usual), Peterson, Green, or perhaps someone else that I'm missing.

In this draft, the Browns could get a very good defensive lineman, top-notch right tackle (with left tackle feet, maybe), or maybe a fast WR who could actually help in the second round. They could get a stud player at several positions in the first, perhaps as low as 15.

The Browns currently have Rubin and guys names Joe for a 4-man line. I've heard that they feel good about one of the young tackles, and Schaefer can be a decent (but not exceptional) defensive end. They need ideally three guys, including two defensive ends.

They'd like more speed at linebacker, but it's not critical.

They could use more depth in the secondary, and that's a bit more important. Brown could play free, but this would leave a need for a third cornerback.

They need a right tackle for the future, but might need him sooner if Womack doesn't re-sign.

They could use a faster wide reciever, but that's far from urgent, and Mitchell could emerge.

Based on their statements and moves to date, I'm more convinced now that Shurmer will see that Cribbs belongs at running back in this offense, so that the "need" for a scatback to offset Hillis (and Hardesty, who is similar) comes off the table.

Speaking of which, I'm loving Shurmer talking about using two backs! I wish more than just crickets ever read this, because if you had, you'd know that I've been talking Shurmer's language for a long time.

Two backs and one or even two tight ends go to the huddle, forcing a base defense. Maybe they break the huddle and line up in an I or a T or whatever, or maybe one or both of the backs go to the slot.

They can't be bumped at the line as recievers because they can legally line up off the line--coverage, whether zone or man, has to be soft, or somebody gets his doors blown off.

But then of course they can lead-block and play smashmouth when they want to.

Finally, a Head Coach who obviously reads my blog!