Saturday, August 29, 2009

More Stuff

OK more of why it has to be Quinn:

1: QB rating. Quinn's is consistantly higher.
2: Quinn is inexperienced and has more upside.
3: Quinn is more mobile, and can create stuff while scrambling. DA without protection is less effective.
4: Personnel. James Davis has showed up as an excellent reciever, and Harrison will be too. On top of those, the Browns now have a plethora of recievers, including Cribbs. Quinn is the guy who will spread the ball around more, making it impossible for defenses to shut down any one part of the passing offense.
Doubling Edwards is much more dangerous with Quinn than with DA. Quinn will throw under that all day. This was part of how enemy defenses turned the 2007 DA into the 2008 DA--taking away his deep options. Quinn dares you to try that on him.
DA spreads the field verticly, but Quinn can do it horizontally.
Quinn=Balance, unpredictability, and adaptability.
If the Browns had fewer recievers and a dominating running back, DA might work better (maybe)--but with these guys? Go with the stronger-armed Pennington type. (Pennington is really an excellent QB).

My man Terry Pluto points out that Quinn was whacked to may times, even sans blitzes. He's rightfully concerned about the blocking. On the bright side of that, Mack is still learning and no doubt blew some calls, if not some blocks personally. Saint Clair is getting flagged constantly and that means he's not so hot. But we got Tucker.

But also note: Quinn got rid of it, at least twice for completions (one to Cribbs for a nice YAC play). DA doesn't do that nearly as well.

James Davis is clearly outplaying Jamal Lewis, and I'm really glad RAC is gone, since Romeo would be impervious to this and keep Davis on the bench anyway. I sure wish Harrison had been able to play, but at least one young guy has risen up to grab some playing time.

I do not believe that Lewis is washed up yet, but I know that the coaches are going to run a committee (including Harrison), with Lewis the short-yardage guy, and I like it.

More later.

We Have a Winner

It's 6:57 third quarter Titans v. Browns preseason. I haven't been able to actually see any of it yet, and of course DA might not be done.

But 9/10 with a touchdown vs. THESE guys? You gotta settle it now.

DA did well, but it seems like Quinn just did better.

Wow Alex Hall interception for a TD! He's learning to play linebacker pretty well. Nice pressure on Young from the depth-defense (vs. their depth o-line) too.

But I digress. Another thing that makes me like Quinn a lot was that Solomon Willcotts compared him to Chad Pennington with a stronger arm DO YOU UNDERSTAND? (In other words, Solly said he was smart and accurate like Pennington but HAS A STRONGER ARM AND CAN THROW FIFTY YARDS IN THE AIR LIKE HE HAS DONE SEVERAL TIMES)....

Sorry it's just that I know that somebody will be pointing out that quinn didn't throw any deep passes in this game and conclude, once again, that he can't and won't, ever. The ignorance is astonishing.

There, he hit Cribbs again for twelve yards. Not only has Cribbs turned into a damn reliable reciever, but Quinn really likes him. DA has a tendancy to lean on Edwards more, but Quinn spreads it around. A throw to Cribbs will tend to be short or intermediate, meaning a quicker release and a safer throw, but it's just as dangerous, since Cribbs can score from anywhere.

This has to be part of the formula. I gotta download this software so I can watch game replays and see some stats and will offer more humbly brilliant expert opinions later okbye.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Under the Radar. Except Here.

The Browns recent releases and signings provide clues to their plans.

No big surprises among the releases, unless you count Philip Hunt. Hunt has actually grown into a decent linebacker in addition to an exceptional special teams player. However, he's primarily an inside linebacker, and Mangini didn't seem to want to cut Rodney BeauBellefield.

...and along came this Benard guy, who sounds a whole lot like Alex Hall, except might be able to play inside.

The re-signing of Brian Schaefering is a nice surprise to yours truly, since as you will recall not reading before last season, this guy can play some football. He's strictly a DE here, but in college played nose tackle, which skewed his stats. It hid his speed, and an ability to rush the quarterback.

Last season he started on the practice squad, then Mangini claimed him to the Jets active roster. He was later released. Last season, Schaefering was a raw small-school longshot who needed more sand in his pants for 3-4 DE, but obviously showed enough for two teams to want to keep him around.

He is now listed at 295 lbs., which may or may not be accurate. Schaefering's experience as a nose tackle will help him deal with double-teams, and playing outside or as a rush-DT will allow him to sometimes use his quickness and speed.

He's still going to have a hard time making the final cut. In his way are Corey Williams, Robaire Smith, Kenyon Coleman, Louis Leonard (who can also play nose tackle), and CJ Mosely, who is physicly similar to Schaefering, and bigger. Unless it's Leonard, I can't see any of these guys giving way--but Shaefering could end up on the practice squad, one injury away from the rotation.

I'm wondering about Martin Rucker, but only a little. None of the tight ends have thus far got much attention from either quarterback. Royal has been playing the most, and has hardly caught any. Partly, I'm sure that Mangini is checking out how well they block, and then partly we're proabably seeing more of the ultimate offense.

With Furrey, and maybe Cribbs too--and shortly Robiskie--there are several get-open-quick, sure-handed, chain-moving recievers. More and more it's looking like the base offense will have three wide recievers and be more speed-oriented.

With the three running backs they have, and the need to preserve Lewis, there will probably be some two-back formations too.

IF Heiden is healthy, it would be very hard to release him, despite the fact that this is almost certainly his last season. Me? I would...I'm sorry. Business is business, and in reality the Browns are not going to do much this season. Royal has some gas left in his tank and is very similar, Rucker...I dunno...and there's AAron Walker (a big monster red-zone target).

My guy Madsen got cut. It looks like in-line blocking is indeed important.

Against Detroit, I saw man-blocking, but also slant-blocking and some zone-like stuff here and there too, which is cool.

I'm susprised to read that they really like Hadnot, and he's in the mix at backup left and starting right guard. He must have improved as a pass defender; was always a good road-grader.

Well...okbye

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Wow, Man. A Touchdown.

1: Stop the rationalizing. DA's passes were NOT "off a little all night". He was pretty much on the money, and you're trying to raise the bar again. The interception was a little high and harder than it should have been, but was a smart decision. It was a hair away from being a nice, big gain, and a pick off a deflection off the intended reciever's hands is NEVER EVER a "bad decision".

2: Quinn is still in it. He hardly got any chances, and did allright with what he had.

I'm now convinced that Mangini really and truly has no dog in this race, and will actually indeed pick the better quarterback. Not the best-looking, neccessarily, or the one with the strongest arm.

O B V I O U S L Y these were the Lions, and that sort of mitigates some of this. For DA-ites it will make no difference, but fortunately Mangini doesn't think like them.

If you can't figure out which QB I like better, I can help. Quinn has a lot less real game experience, can and has thrown deep but is more conservative on purpose, has better mobility, and, I believe, reads the field better. He'd also sell more tickets.

...but dammit, if DA outperforms him and gets benched anyway just to make a bunch of irrational/gay people happy, that's just plain stupid, plus just plain unfair and wrong.

I just think that when it's said and done, it'll be close to a tie, and Quinn will get the nod, owing to his lesser experience, hence greater upside, more than for any other reason.

DA does NOT suck. Only just about now does he have enough experience to really be called a vet and to be expected to stop throwing picks...since his name isn't Brett Favre. Eli Manning took longer before he truly blossomed. People who think he'll always and forever make bad decisions ass ume he can't improve with experience. That's irrational.

I think Quinn wins, we got great depth a QB this season, and get real good stuff for DA in a trade.

3: Did you notice that in his limitted time Wimbley was all over the field and got six tackles? This is the main reason why it never occured to Mangini to get rid of him and his salary, or to demote him. While everybody else has declared him a bust due to his sacklessness, he has quietly turned into a very good all-around linebacker who can cover and track down runs.

While in the 3-4 you really do need pressure from the OLB spots, and Wimbley has disappointed, he did do what he did do as a rookie. Clearly, these coaches believe that with a couple more moves, a more intelligent and creative deployment of him, etc. he can be a very good all-around linebacker who can generate some pressure.

They will not have showed how they'll be shifting him around when it counts, and probably haven't even sent him much. I remain optimistic.

4: How bout that Poteat? In fact the secondary in general? Even when Detroit's QB's had time, the DB's were mostly on it.

Well...the open recievers who were just overthrown or missed weren't lost on me. Nor did Detroit have Calvin Johnson. The coverage was far from perfect and the Lions QB's screwed up several times, but there was definitely good stuff to see. I had thought Poteat was a depth guy only, but maybe he's more. And Hoppel...who knows?

But did you see how the zone coverage was tighter than Romeo's ever was? The DB's were actually close enough to the recievers to close on the ball.

I guess that Ryan guy is just a big gambler. To have a defender less than a good ten yards behind a reciever is just unthinkable for the bend-into-the-end-zone defense.

5: Mike Furrey. There's our Brian Brennan. You can't cover that guy in a phone booth.

I had originally expected a two-TE based offense, but unlike all the sportswriters except Pluto you read, I adapt to changing circumstances. So will Mangini and co. Wide reciever depth was a problem, but now it's just the opposite. I don't count Leggett out just off of one catchless game. Cribbs has already mostly proven that he's not only ready to fill in, but to start at WR.

In order to get the best (and most dangerous) recievers on the field, this offense will need to run more three-wides.

Rucker is not emerging as the next K2. My dark-horse former WR hasn't done much either. Heiden is awesome but old and at this age could be injury-prone. Royal is a lot like Heiden, so there's a nice reliable blocker and reciever, but that appears to be it.

Really, three-wides force nickles. They lighten and spreads the defense. It makes blitzes riskier, gives the linemen fewer guys to block, and opens holes even before the snap.

When you got a guy like Furrey, plus a running back who can catch, you can go tight-end or fullback light because even if a blitzer leaks through right away, the QB has a ready target right in front of him.

And I say Furrey, but that could be Cribbs, too. In camp he's been getting open just about as much, and catching everything near him. It's just that Furrey has been doing exactly this for a long time, and it now appears quite possible that Cribbs will at least rotate in at the Z spot. Doesn't make much sense to take Furrey off the field to make room for anybody.

What about four-wide? Yeah I can see that, too. I mean, you got Edwards, Furrey, Cribbs, Robiskie--and then several others with a lot of talent who haven't had a chance to emerge yet.

Any kind of spread base will effect the QB race. More fast recievers with more blitzes favor Quinn--not DA as some would think. I believe that Quinn can see the hot read quicker against blitzes, and can go underneath to move the chains under umbrella coverage when he has to.

Remember Lindy Infante? "Well it looks like a pass but it's really more like a long hand-off". Remember how the Cardiac Kids did most of their damage turning dink-passes into long gains?

Yeah...Robiskie is pretty good at that, but Massequoi is better. Don't need to even mention Cribbs. This crew is for Quinn...not DA. (DA's favorites would be Edwards and Leggett.)

6: Who didn't know that James Davis in the sixth was a major steal?

Thing is, the main reason he slid so far--aside from the massive talent at running back--was that he didn't have many big plays. He uses shiftiness and power. He's a slasher and a grinder.

Don't compare him to Jamal Lewis. Lewis is shorter and as much as twenty pounds heavier--all muscle. Such comparisons were another reason why he slid.

But maybe--just maybe--this guy is one of those rare dudes who can do better in the pros than he did in college, like LaDanian Thomlinson. I mean, he bounced outside when he looked like he was doomed, right?

Well, in college the defenders are slower and general, and often slow to diagnose and react; to peel out of coverage in run support. In college, the inside hole might have been bigger and Davis might have taken it for his normal short gain instead. Here, he was FORCED outside by defenders who were quick to diagnose and converge on him, and ran around a couple who were closing on where he had been.

Just a thought...could be he was a bigger steal than any of us thought.

At any rate, we have no issues at running back. Whereas with Harrison even I couldn't say for sure that he can stop big blitzers or take an NFL-style pounding through a lot of carries, Davis can definitely do that.

Last season Romeo's ignorance wore Lewis down as he ran on a bumb ankle. Harrison could have helped, but wasn't allowed to. This season, the coaches have made no secret of their intentions to take carries off Lewis to keep him fresh and healthy, and we got the horses.

7: I liked Bernie's analysis. I hope everybody else listened to him too.

He does say that Mangini needs to name a starter NOW, and I do grok this. However, the guy who wins this is likely to be the Browns QB for the duration of Mangini's reign, and I also understand why Mangini feels he needs to make damn sure he picks the right guy.

Next week, they get to play another really really good team and will probably get kicked around pretty good. If I read Mangini right, he'll once again ignore convention and split first-team reps between the two quarterbacks.

I believe that this will be the final exam--each QB under intense pressure vs. one of the top defenses in the NFL.

Then in the final preseason game, the starter will have been named, and will get his tune-up for the first half or so.

Bernie is talking about repetitions with the recievers he'll be throwing to, plus repetitions reading defenses in-flux, and he's right. But Mangini and Daboll are talking about the backup being ready to go and both QB's accustomed to intense psychological pressure--and being able to adapt quickly--and they're right too.

In reality, they can't come out and tell you that with the Superbowl champs, another dominant team, and even the Bengals (who embarrassed the Pats last week) in this division, and with so many new inexperienced players on this roster...well they can't admit that this is a growth year.

But it is. Whichever QB wins should be as good as he needs to be by NEXT season.

Mangini: So far so good.

8: They shoulda paid Cribbs. He just got a lot more expensive.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

EEEWwww!

1: Marcus Benard...who is this guy? Maybe we got another Hall here....

2: DA was bad. Quinn was merely mediocre. He SHOULD have had a TD pass, and I think a guy had him by the plant-leg on the interception. Edwards is a big strong guy and is supposed to win tugs-of-war. That's why everybody wants big recievers.

3: I told you about Coye Francies. Major steal there. With Benard, who knows? But Francies WILL BE at least a solid NFL cornerback, and I mean quickly.

4: The run defense was non-existant, check. But Ryan was vanilla (doing his RAC imitation) and they weren't attacking the way they will be. Although the more agressive, less predictable package will sometimes surrender big gains, it will also blow more plays up in the backfield.

5: Rodgers had all day on his first TD pass. I don't think he will when it counts.

6: I love the fact that Mangini held Rogers out.
A: Big Baby is like half the defense. Regardless of what they say, when you have a guy like that wreaking havoc, the other guys instinctively play "safe" and just "got his back", sorta. Mangini forced the whole rest of the defense to fight for themselves. Although it didn't show much in this game...especially against the run...it will later.
B: Rogers is known and a vet. Keep him healthy, and let the young guys get some reps. Like RAC never, ever did. Mangini knows how to develop young players, and keep the big fat guys healthy and fresh.

7: I'm not too worried about the running game. Mangini was mixing and matching the o-line throughout, and I have a hunch he wouldn't have played Ryan Tucker too much...like RAC would have. He was testing Sowells, for one thing, and needs to see what Foster can do. This includes Mack, who was in and out with the first team so that Mangini could see him against Green Bays' best.
We'll know more about that part of it when the offensive line is settled.

8: Cribbs did what he did as the Z-reciever? Wow! After last season, I wondered if he ever would become a good true wide reciever, but it looks like he has finally blossomed...or perhaps been allowed to.
Quinn has endorsed him without reserve, and a smart coach listens to quarterbacks talking about wide recievers. And what he said is true: Cribbs gets the ball in the open field and it's like a kick return, and he's already past most of the defenders.
Clearly, even as an outside reciever, he is getting open and has good hands. This is great news.
He'd be even MORE effective in the slot, where the defender can't use the sideline to help him.
This could be the case, when the dust settles. If he's still returning kicks and covering kick/punt returns as he's said he really wants to, making him an every-down player might be too much.

9: Besides, Robiskie showed some good stuff himself, including run-after-catch. He's physicly better-suited to the Z than Cribbs is.

10: I know the older guys kick butt out of the slot, too, but Mangini must have an eye to the future, and will be the opposite of RAC. YOUTH will be his tie-breaker. (If this were RAC's team, Mack wouldn't have played til late in the second, Tucker and Rogers would have played most of the half, and the young recievers wouldn't have got any shots at all vs. first-string defenses.)

11: It sounded like Harrison only ran inside. I like it. Mangini already knows he can get outside, and this is testing him. So he got stuffed--so did everybody else.

12: I also bet that Veikune played way more than Jackson or Barton, who are two more "knowns".

Overall, there's no excuse for the penalties and screw-ups--and it should be noted that Green Bay's defense was undermanned and not what they will be.

However, I do believe that Mangini was not following the traditional starters-first, then the young guys when the opponent takes out it's first string script. I think he carried his training-camp methodology right into this game, and gave everybody roughly equal reps against each level of competition.

For most teams, the first preseason game is to get the base offense and defense down, and establish chemistry. I believe that for Mangini, is was his first opportunity to evaluate many new and young players against some pretty damn good talent for real.

I hope that this and the vanilla schemes (I think they only ran inside, too) account for much of this atrocity.

So please withhold the "We're all gonna die!" self-soiling panic crap, k?