New Prediction: 12-4

After further review, I now believe that the Browns will lose 4 games.

I haven't even looked into the Texans yet. I just know that they turn the ball over, and of late the Browns defense forces turnovers, so we got that going for us...

This is my first opportunity to observe a live game. I've come off the road and illegally parked in front of Gman's, and got it set up so that he, Bub, Gman and I will go to Eman's and watch the Browns annihilate the Texans.

Finally able to see some highlight replays on the internet, I've confirmed that Chud and co. recieved my emails and are doing as I'd instructed with the finess-blocking stuff. However, if Kevin Shaffer is out, they'll have to trim this down a little. Tucker, while still pretty mobile, is at this age more a mauler-type, and whoever plays right guard is not as agile as McKinney. Both can execute a finesse game--just not as well, and there could be some old-fashioned power-blocking on the right side.

I'm weary of the Jamal Lewis-bashing. I can't be definitive about the "slow to the hole" etc. stuff, as I haven't seen any games. But I doubt it. He came here with this baggage; this reputation. Any time an injured player leaves one system for another, and heals, and is 27 years old, and loses 15-20 lbs...

I am used to hearing the baggage mindlessly brought back every time he only gets 1-3 yards twice in a row. Lewis historicly, and expecially against the Browns, typicly gets stifled early. He'll average maybe 2.2 ypc, and then starts breaking loose for longer runs as the defense tires and he sees how they're reacting to him. When he gets that 100-plus yards, often half or more of them are gained on 1-4 runs.

Damage is damage, whether it's all at once or in evenly distributed pieces. The worst case with Lewis is about two yards. Rarely ever a stuff or a loss. Most teams will take that. Doesn't seem like it, but second and eight really is better than second and ten or twelve.

As for the future, however, I really, really, really wish that Jerome Harrison were allowed more opportunities. Even some of the aforementioned individuals repeated the propaganda that it was because he still needed to work on his blocking. And I repeated that Jason Wright got the nod over him because of his greater experience, and the fact that he's damn near a CLONE of Earnest Byner.

Hey, but the thing is, Harrison is a much-heavier Gregg Pruitt! He's the youngest and newest back, with massive upside. He's THE home-run hitter among the running backs, and he can line up anywhere, including wide.

...but maybe they think he'll fumble. That could be it.

The offense has great leadership in Winslow and, yes, Jason Wright. These guys come through when the chips are down and will not go down. Braylon Edwards can't be a leader til he stops dropping passes--regardless of how many great plays he makes. Through the first five games he proved that he could catch anything near him, and then he regressed. That's inexcusable. If he's on my team, he'd better not give me any advice, or dare to say anything about handling pressure.

I look foreward to more agressiveness on defense. The defensive line isn't bad, if the individual talents and skill-sets of the players are used right.

The issue is the system. It will never work consistantly until all three of them can take on and then shed blocks--especially the nose tackle. By design, it keeps the goons off the linebackers. Yeah, ok I get that. But Roye is chronicly injured and playing hurt. Smith is fine, but older and needs relief as well. The DE backups are much, much better one-gappers than two-gappers.

Shaun Smith is a very good player...INSIDE. Playing him at defensive end is dumb. His speed is limitted and he lacks reach. He's a leverage player who is best used at nose tackle. Rather than concede any part of the scheme in order to adapt to what talent is here, until the last couple games, they've doggedly stuck with the two-gap stuff.

Now, despite Smith being wasted at DE rather than where he belongs, at least they've finally, at long last, said "Ok. Just shoot the gaps and try to make a mess."

We know what the offense can do. We know what Cribbs will do. We know that the defense is a few pieces short of matching either, so the best thing to do is turn every down into a brawl.

This is what a smart boxer will do. If the other guy is too quick, and picks you apart on the fly--you close and trade punches. Maybe you can't get there--you take big shots on the way in. You get cut up and look bad. But it's all you got. If you stand there and let him control everything, you're not just chicken. You're stupid. And you'll get a lot stoopidder real soon.

This defense may not be Muhammud Ali yet, but Ernie Shaffers knocked out 56 guys and only lost about seven fights--to only the toughest of them. We can be Ali next season, after Savage does some more magic. For now, let's be the peanut.

BANZAI!

Ray Who?

Dear Romeo and Todd:

Thank you so much for finally listening to me and doing like I suggested. I don't mind not getting the credit for it, or the fact that so far you haven't responded to my missives. Obviously, you got them, since you did some of it with the Squealers, and some with the Cravens.

Attack. Yes. You got six sacks, four turnovers, and six points. See how it works? Sure, ok, McGahee ripped off that long run for the TD, and the short passes stung a little, but you have to look at the big picture, see?

You have a problem on the defensive line. You don't have a nose tackle to fit your inflexible, no-matter-what scheme yet...except perhaps Shawn Smith, who you seem to think is a DE...and the guys behind Roye and Smith aren't really 2-gap DT-type players.

But finally, at long last, you saw the light. You turned them loose, and the offensive line and backs weren't sure who they were supposed to block. I could almost hear them "Waitaminnit, Robaire! You're not 'sposed to shoot past me like that! No fair!"

I don't have the TFL stats, but I think it's fair to estimate ten negative plays (not counting the four turnovers). These killed drives, or rendered the Cravens one-dimensional with long yardage. You tightened the coverage and used man sometimes.

Isn't this better than those icky twelve-yard cushions that any QB at all can easily exploit all up and down the field? Is gap control really so important that you have to give QB's ten or twelve seconds to select their targets, who are wearing the DB's out, and throw?

That's right--Tora Tora Tora banzai! I doubt that any of the linebackers are complaining about those big guys chasing them around...like Ray Lewis, who spent much of the game on his kiester courtesy of our own big guys (haha).

The Bengals...not this season, but last: They had similar personnel problems on their own defense. But they attacked. They ranked among the league's worst in most categories, but were among the top defenses in terms of turnovers and scoring. They made the most of a bad situation, and it worked.

You can get your big guys this off-season, but meanwhile keep letting them just blitze and penetrate and have fun. Everybody rightfully wants to canonize Josh Cribbs (who I earlier called "Wright" duh) for constantly putting the offense on a short field, two first downs out of field goal range. But see that? The defense did this, as well, with their turnovers!

Robaire Smith is quick, and can bull-rush. Ethan Kelly...is that who it was? Well I heard he did a great job this time...attacking. They couldn't spare anybody extra to put on Smith. And then, of course, it was Smith or whichever linebacker was coming off the edge.

And wasn't it nice that Boller didn't have his backs, and half the time his tight end to throw to because they were too busy chasing our guys around trying to protect him? See how that works, guys? Hope you learned something!

Sincerely, Wile E Coyote

Now for the corrections:

Josh Cribbs now returns kicks and punts, and is the leading special teams TACKLER. If he is used more than occasionally on offense as well, he will wear down and probably get maimed. Every time he's on the field, he sprints all-out, all over it, and he gets hit hard and a lot.

The inside linebackerS are not slow. Davis isn't a very effective blitzer. The other three guys all are. AndrA AndrrrAAAA...Davis will probably be traded this off-season. He's still a very good player, but the other guys are better. Davis would be damn good in the middle of a 4-3.

Anyway, don't generalize. The dumb always throw out the baby with the bathwater.

I'm starting to get persuaded by the guys on NFL Radio that Anderson should be given a big long-term contract soon, rather than franchising him next season. He's already proven himself, consistantly over a number of games. He's still young, with much room for improvement--even as he currently ranks among the league's elites.

Rumors of his immobility and inaccuracy were greatly exhagerrated...although he does still get into a bad throw zone occasionally. (By the way, what was all that "too mechanical" crap? What the hell did that mean? He didn't hop up and down like a little girl? Some of you guys need to get a life!)

The trade option is still there, and should he get hurt there's Quinn. Anderson is the bird in the hand, and they'd never get equal value with a first and the third round pick, probably from somebody in the bottom ten. QB is unique, and good ones are rare. WE KNOW: This one position can make or break you.

I liked what Quinn showed in preseason, and have every confidence in him, but we've been burned before. (No not Couch. Couch's arm broke down, that's all.) And based on what we've already seen of the still-young and inexperienced Anderson in real games--especially coming from behind--man, you just have to keep him.

That crunch-time thing: You can't coach it. Brian Sipe, with his pop-gun arm--he had it. Anderson is Sipe on steroids. These are the new Kardiac Kids--and nevermind that it's only because of a crappy defense.

And Braylon? He's made about ten great throws under that pressure, but nobody knows about it. Know why? DON'T MAKE ME COME DOWN THERE!

YOU STAND CORRECTED.

Now, as you know, I revise my predictions for the Browns win/loss record as more info comes in. My new prediction is 12-4.

I'm deep in enema territory (Cincinnati) as I write this. If I'm not there for Thanksgiving, eat without me.

Steelers vs. Browns Corrections

The defense is a legit concern, but I wonder if it's the players, or the playcalling. I truly don't know, because so far I can't trust ANY of the amatuerish and generalized descriptions I've read.

We have the cornerbacks for man coverage, and if you can press-cover the top two recievers (and have two linebackers and one safety able to stay with even the better TE's) You can send more people. Are they doing this, or is it just Peek, McGinnest, and/or Wimbley--only on third and longs?

Are the lighter, younger, faster DE's ever being allowed to shoot gaps or stunt, or are they expected to engage the big monsters and then try to get off the blocks? Is Smith going to play inside where he belongs, or outside where he's inadequate?

Bud Carson knew this: If you attack an offense they have to adapt to you. If you don't, they call the shots. If you attack you sometimes get burned, but MORE OFTEN get interceptions, tackles for losses, strip-sacks and fumbles. Even Marty, when he had Dixon, Minnifield, and Wright turned the dogs loose. His was mainly a two-gap defense, whether 3-4 or 4-3, but even Marty knew when to let them penetrate.

If they play it by the book against Pitt, Pitt will march up and down the field and wear them down again. The result is utterly predictable. If they ATTACK, who knows? Now, which gives the Browns the better chance to win DUHHH?

Ok but all this Pitt will get to Anderson stuff is dumb. This is not the same offensive line as the brand new one in week one. This offensive line all but shut down the Seahawks pass-rush, and athleticly is an ideal match for LeBeau's 3-4.

Further, Anderson was always more decisive and quicker than Frye, and now has a bunch more experience with these recievers. If Pitt's D has any weakness, it is it's secondary.

Don't worry about Jamal Lewis. Two, one, four, two, seven, eight, one, twelve...do you understand? And in this game he'll probably be an outlet--which places him on the edge.

The Browns will probably go 2-back a lot. I've been impressed by Chud using Heiden as a fullback sometimes. The backs are there to pick up the zone-blitzes. Often, they're reserves--if this athletic, quick offensive line can pick up the blitzers, those guys are uncovered recievers. Heiden can even go right up the gut, chipping as he goes.

Another thing is, throw out the mobility thing with Anderson. He's much faster than he looks, and Chud knows it and uses it. That's why near the goal line he'll roll out, and often keep it. Even under pressure, he's escaped or minimized sacks with a step or a dive.

Anderson uses Jurevicious. Frye didn't. Chud sends K2 deep. Nobody has been able to stop Edwards--double-coverage is a given, and he beats that too. K2 and Edwards are just as advertized--no defense has enough people to cover them. They have to treat Jurevicous as an afterthought! Can't press them, either, and they block downfield.

This is why the Browns pass first. The more-experienced Anderson checks down and fires quickly. Blitze all you want--if the ball is gone, it's gone.

And these are the new Kardiac kids! Nowadays, when they're down by 14 or 17 points, you're not changing the channel. You still really don't know who will win.

How many times has Anderson converted third and fourth and longs? How many times have the Browns had false starts, holding, etc. penalties in sequence and still got first downs? I swear it's just astonishing--who ever thought that Anderson would be THIS good, this soon? The worse it gets, the better he gets!

And I've got to say this about the defense: Man--when the game is on the line, they match Anderson. Third and inches. NOPE. 4th and inches. STUFF. Between the 20's they get pushed all over the field. They give up big plays, too. But in the red zone they get tough.

So it's not all bad. If you break the defense into phases, they're very good in short yardage and the red zone. They just suck everywhere else, is all.

And special teams. Maybe this will be the game Cribbs breaks one. Maybe he'll turn one of those great stops onto a fumble.

Everybody is raving about Pitt's offense, but in my opinion, the Browns offense is better. Maybe not by a lot, but better, and still improving. The Browns special teams are better, too.

...but they probably lose because of the defense. Dammit.

Brady Who?

What do we do? Now we have too many QBs!

Andrson had turned into a monster, and shows no sign of backsliding. But his agent will never consent to a long-term deal for any less than top dollar. And then, what if he gets hurt before the ink is dry?

Quinn showed great promise. It's ok to keep him parked on the bench for one or even two seasons, but longer? He's not making top 5 money. His deal is close to where he was actually drafted, so he's not very expensive. On the business side, I suppose you could now afford to sign Anderson longer-term, but if you break the bank to pay him, you undermine the trade option, and tell Quinn that he's a benchwarmer for the forseeable future.

It might be neccessary to make Anderson the franchis player with the high tender. That retains him for one season, gives the Browns the option to match any offer, and demands a first and third round pick of they lose him.

The team that drafts 30th could take advantage of this, of course. However, the Browns could still get a very good player, and probably a pretty good one in the third, as well...and still have a well-prepared Quinn ready to go.

I dunno...it's a nice problem to have, though. Savage did this, too. He knew Anderson from the Ravens, and snatched him when they tried to sneak him through waivers onto their practice squad. I doubt that Phil expected him to be this good this soon, though. Still, he knew something we didn't.

People who bash Savage are clueless. We just lost Jackson for a few weeks, and the low-round pick stepping in for him is in many ways better than he was.

The defense has sucked, but doesn't have to keep sucking. It might get better. The only problem is the line, and that stupid soft coverage...and lack of aggression...ah crap okbye